It’s 7/22 and I’d like to welcome you back and thank you for reading, following along and interacting on Twitter @MLBMovingAvg. I couldn’t be more satisfied with the results of the inaugural season launch of the MLBMA algo thus far. I really appreciate the support, and hope your season has been nearly as profitable as mine.
A Quick Intro to MLB Moving Averages
MLBMA incorporates proven methods of technical analysis, indicators and trading techniques towards the current MLB betting space. I created some custom stats to encompass all the prerequisites, and most importantly save us all a ridiculous amount of time. Therefore, a team receiving high grades in Offensive Runs Created (ORC+) or Pitching Runs Allowed (PRA+) have already passed rigorous standards on combinations of weighted averages, trend & split tests.
To list all pertinent stats individually is a waste of precious time we just don’t have in a nonstop, 24/7 MLB market. Also if you’ve been following along this season, you have an idea of how I structure of my statistical arguments. Please feel free to refer to the earliest articles on my author page https://windailysports.com/author/mlbmovingavg/ to see some of these metrics walked out in more detail.
Ultimately my goal is to provide you instantly with the most comprehensive & unique betting snapshot of any given MLB slate. I want it to cater to those serious players without tons of time to do their own data mining, and be immediately effective across all formats. MLBMA is a 24/7 profit mindset. This type of system requires only the most disciplined, intelligent and thinking players; Those determined to provide sustainable income over the long haul.
MLBMA Implied Team Totals Betting Key
Final – Each individual team’s score after the first five innings. Generally, a difference of one full run is the initial indicator for a high percentage play.
F5 ITT – First Five Implied Team Totals. It is the sum of the two finals and can be applied to F5 Over/Under betting.
F5 ML – First Five Inning Money Line Bet
F5 RL – First Five Inning Run Line Bet. -0.5 for Favorites and +0.5 for Underdogs.
FG ML – Full Game Money Line Bet
FG RL – Full Game Run Line Bet. -1.5 for Favorites and +1.5 for Underdogs.
Bets that satisfy the algorithm’s parameters are marked in green and labeled as the highest percentage plays. Not every flagged play ends up being bet.
Remember, these values are on a scale and not to be taken literally. This also makes them extremely versatile across betting formats. The same way we use a difference in implied totals to determine a winner, we can use totals to bet the Over/Under. Any Implied Team Total above 3.0 for a team is considered high, and below 2.6 is considered low. Therefore, a combined F5 total (F5ITT) over 6.0 would be a candidate for an Over bet and a combined F5 total under 5.2 would be a flag for the under.
Once an F5 play is identified, I run some custom MLBMA bullpen filters to determine if the bet is better suited as a nine inning play. The state of the average bullpen in the bigs is so revolting right now, that I instinctively lean towards the more predictable five inning play. However, some situations do call for a FG bet and I never like to leave any stones unturned; This is money we’re talking about.
MLBMA Algo Betting Results w/Implied Team Totals, 7/22
MLBMA Picks and Plays for 7/22:
Public Bets 7/22:
STL F5ML (-110)
CIN F5RL +0.5 (-145)
MIA F5RL +0.5 (-135)
TB FGRL +1.5 (-145)
I’m going to get exposure to all of these straight, and in combinations.
MLBMA BONUS Dog Catcher Lotto Ticket
CIN F5ML (-110)
TB F5ML (+100)
MIN F5ML (-110)
MIA F5ML (+100)
HOU F5ML (-280)
ARI F5ML (-260)
(+2840, or $20 pays $600 and any multiple thereof)
It’s called a lotto ticket for a reason. It should represent no more than 0.25% of your entire stack. I weigh all my plays responsibly against my account AT ALL TIMES.
If a bet is at or close to even, bet it straight. Whenever I have three favorite picks, I play a small Tier 1 ABC F5ML parlay, and then play all three F5RLs straight, but it always depends on the odds that day. I do not like to pay any heavy juice beyond -200, so I would never play those straight. Those have to be paired, or faded. Anybody can win on any day.
Whenever I have four picks, I’m usually going to play a Round Robin where 3 of 4 hits will guarantee a profit, and all 4 is huge night on a small risk.
Tailor your game to your own account and expectations. I bet small relative to stack, and bet smart. If you can’t make money with $100, what makes you think you’ll make money with $10,000?
A very special thanks to https://fangraphs.com (where I’m good for at least twelve million clicks a season) for helping me scrape and mine this data to determine all of these formulas .
Baseball Twitter's Robin Hood. Lifetime baseball fan, avid capper and fantasy baseball player. 15+ years of stock trading experience, specializing in risk management and advanced game theories.
Creator of the MLB Moving Averages algorithm in 2018