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MLBMA Betting 7/21: Premium Algo Results



Sports Betting

Today is 7/21, and I’d like to thank you for reading, following along and interacting on Twitter @MLBMovingAvg for the inaugural season launch of the MLBMA algo. I really appreciate the support, and hope your season has been nearly as profitable as mine. Above all, once you can speak the lingo and understand the daily readout, this single sheet will give you an advantage in all betting formats instantaneously.

A Quick Intro to MLBMA & The Application of ORC+/PRA+

MLBMA incorporates technical analysis & trading techniques towards the current MLB betting space. I’ve created some new custom stats we’ll be using going forward. They will encompass all the prerequisites and most importantly save us all ridiculous amounts of time. Therefore, a team receiving a high grade in Offensive Runs Created or Pitching Runs Allowed has already passed rigorous standards on combinations of weighted averages, trend & split tests.

To list all pertinent stats individually is a waste of precious time we just don’t have in a 24/7 MLB market. Also if you’ve been following along this season, you have an idea of how I structure of my statistical arguments. Ultimately my goal is to provide you instantly with the most comprehensive & unique snapshot of any given MLB slate. I want it to cater to those serious players without tons of time to do their own data mining, and be immediately effective across all formats. MLBMA is a 24/7 profit mindset. This type of system requires only the most disciplined, intelligent and thinking players; Those determined to provide sustainable income over the long haul. This type of board analysis isn’t child’s play.

MLBMA Implied Team Totals and ORC+/PRA+ Betting Key

I set the conditional formatting for the board similarly to the incomparable Baseball Savant. Red is elite, all the way down to blue being the worst. Therefore, regardless which side of the ball we’re analyzing, we’re always looking for red and higher ORC+/PRA+.

For DFS purposes to identify the highest rated Starting Pitchers, find the greatest negative difference between opposing PRA and ORC in Dark Blue. To identify the highest rated offensive stacks, find the greatest positive difference between opposing ORC and PRA in Dark Red.

For purposes of simplification, I recently added ITT, or Implied Team Totals. These are a function of the combination of opposing ORC+/PRA+ grades. These are the actual predicted scores by the MLBMA algo. Of course, it can also be used for O/U plays or to identify DFS stacks as well.

MLBMA Betting Analysis 7/21

It’s important for me to note that there are two ways I use the Algo results when selecting F5 bets. The first and most oft used is identifying a difference of one run or greater in the Implied Team Total (ITT) column. Remember, these values are on a scale and not to be taken literally. Subsequently, the MLBMA algo is never going to imply either twelve or zero runs for a team. In addition, we can also identify two phase advantages in both Offensive Runs Created and Pitching Runs Scored.

A very special thanks to (where I’m good for at least twelve million clicks a season) for helping me scrape and mine this data to determine all of these formulas .

MLBMA Algo Betting Results w/Implied Team Totals for 1pm Slate, 7/21

MLBMA Betting, Picks and Plays for 7/21:

Bets 7/21:

  • Tier 1
  • CLE F5RL if straight, ML if parlayed
  • BOS F5RL if straight, ML if parlayed
  • CHC F5RL if straight, ML if parlayed
  • Tier 2
  • SF F5ML
  • TB F5RL if straight, ML if parlayed
  • NYY F5RL if straight, ML if parlayed
  • CIN F5ML

For some thoughts on strategy and different ways to play, check out my last article

My initial thought here is play a small Tier 1 ABC ML parlay, and then play all 3 RL straight. For tier 2, I’m going to play a Round Robin where 3 of 4 hits will guarantee a profit for the tier.

Tailor your game to your own account and expectations. Bet small, bet smart. If you can’t make money with $100, what makes you think you’ll make money with $10,000?

DFS Pitchers 7/21:

  • Hendricks
  • Snell
  • Paxton

DFS Offensive Stacks 7/21:

  • CLE
  • BOS
  • CIN

Baseball Twitter's Robin Hood. Lifetime baseball fan, avid capper and fantasy baseball player. 15+ years of stock trading experience, specializing in risk management and advanced game theories. Creator of the MLB Moving Averages algorithm in 2018

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