Thirsty Thursday’s edition of the Gems sees another NBA slate with a ton of star power and value that will flood in throughout the day as player news comes in. A few games are specifically high on my list, so we’ll be targeting those and analyzing why they are the best spots to be in.
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 FD price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Point Guards
Jamal Murray ($8,300 FD / $8,400 DK)
Bubble Jamal Murray has entered the chat. Seeing 36.4 MPG in his last six, Murray is averaging 31.5/6/5 on 57.1% shooting and 51.9% from behind the arc. Not only has his efficiency been off the charts, but he is also taking nearly 20 FGA per game during that span (19.8), including 9/game from deep. Sporting a 30.6% usage rate in his last six, Murray gets a juicy matchup versus a turnover prone Russell Westbrook who loves to push the pace – buckets galore for my fellow Canadian tonight.
Ja Morant ($7,200 FD / $7,400 DK)
I will continue to play primary ball handlers against the Clippers, especially when they are at such low ownership. Whereby the Clippers have defensive ability in PG13 and Kawhi, there is no denying what primary ball handlers have done to them: Westbrook just dropped 20/9/10, Kyrie dropped 28/4/8, Mitchell dropped 35/4/5, need I go on? Ja Morant is the key to the Memphis offense along with Jonas Valanciunas; through his 29.1% usage rate on the season, Ja is averaging 19.1/3.2/7.9 on 45.6% shooting, and I’m expecting a big game from the sophomore here tonight.
Also Consider:
Shooting Guards
Bradley Beal ($9,800 FD / $9,200 DK)
We meet again, my friend. Bradley Beal finds himself in an elite game environment tonight – not only because his Wizards play at the fastest pace in the NBA and have the 27th ranked defense in the league, but because Denver continues to be on a thin rotation amidst the losses of Paul Millsap, JaMychal Green, Gary Harris, and PJ Dozier. In their last three games, Denver has a 24th ranked defensive efficiency rating, something that bodes well for Beal & Co. Leading the NBA in scoring at 32.7 PPG and in usage rate at 35.8%, Beal is the Wizard I want every night, and tonight is no different.
Terrence Ross ($6,200 FD / $6,700 DK)
An interesting target in GPPs today, Terrence Ross is in a game environment that suits his playing style to a tee. Despite coming off the bench for a shorthanded Magic team, Ross has still managed to sport an impressive 28% usage rate while playing 31.5 MPG – sounds like starter statistics to me. In a matchup versus the high-flying Nets, the Magic will need as much offense as they can get to help Vuc out, and Ross is the guy: over the last 5, not only is he sporting a 28% usage rate over 31.5 MPG, but he’s also averaging 21.4 PPG to go along with 5.6 RPG on 46.4% shooting.
Also Consider:
Small Forwards
Michael Porter Jr. ($5,700 FD / $6,000 DK)
His price is increasing, but as one of the highest owned players on the NBA slate, you need MPJ in cash tonight. However, my interest in him does not stop there – can we really not consider the #3 scoring option in GPPs that is in a high-paced environment versus one of the worst defensive teams in the league just because he is high owned? Absolutely not – MPJ is fully in play for GPPs as well, especially when he’s getting 40 minutes like he did just a few days ago against Portland. The Nuggets need offense, and MPJ is the guy they need to step up with Mal and Joker here tonight.
RJ Barrett ($5,500 FD / $5,500 DK)
With everyone debating Quickley versus DRose tonight with Elfrid Payton listed as doubtful, why not go with Door #3 in RJ Barrett? While we do not know who will get the most run between Bullock, Burks, Rose, and Quickley, we know that RJ Barrett will be counted on to log heavy minutes here tonight for Thibs’ Knicks. While he is inconsistent in his product, the minutes will be there, and his 23.9% usage rate on the season shows why he is averaging 16.2 PPG on 42.5% shooting – he has the talent, and with the level of uncertainty between the other four pieces to replace Payton, I’ll take Barrett.
Also Consider:
Power Forwards
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,400 FD / $11,000 DK)
Talk about a good matchup for the NBA’s back-to-back MVP. I don’t have to read Picks & Pivots to know that Brian has already mentioned how bad New Orleans is against guards and in the paint – honestly, they’re just bad at defense in general, logging the second-worst defensive rating in the league over their last 10 games. The duo of Robert Williams and Tristan Thompson torched them, Mason Plumlee went for back to back 50 DK point performances, and now they’re up against Giannis? Good luck stopping him tonight – read PnP for more details here.
Zion Williamson ($8,500 FD / $8,600 DK)
He’s on one of these runs where we just can’t ignore him on any NBA slate. Zion has been thriving in the faster, more efficient New Orleans offense as of late, where he has a 29.2% usage rate over the past ten games, averaging 29 PPG across 32.8 MPG on a ridiculous 66.7% shooting – read PnP for more details here.
Others to Consider:
Centers
Nikola Jokic ($10,800 FD / $10,400 DK)
Big Honey is in a prime matchup against the Wizards, as I have already covered in the Murray, Beal, and Porter Jr. blurbs. Rather than go over the game environment again, I’ll just fill you in on Joker’s MVP season so far: averaging 27/10.9/8.4 on 56.2% shooting, 40.8% from deep, playing just under 36 MPG with a 29.3% usage rate. Giddy up!
Nikola Vucevic ($9,900 FD / $10,000 DK)
One of the most underrated players in the NBA this season, I’m thrilled to see Vuc get the recognition he deserves with an ASG nod. If the Magic want to stay in this one with Brooklyn, just as in every other night, Vuc will need to be the reason why: he’s averaging 23.9/11.7/3.7 on 47.9% shooting, including a whopping 20 FGA/game, including a career-high 6.3 3PA, where he’s shooting 40%. The 28.9% usage rate doesn’t do him justice; Vuc is the Magic, the Magic are Vuc, and he’ll need to bring it versus one of the Beasts of the East.
Also Consider:
Value Gems: Check the projection model.
I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.
You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost
Back to a bigger NBA slate today and more Gems to uncover in Fajita Friday’s edition! Some more star power in great spots, a loaded center position, and value already opening up at the time of writing with notable players marked as questionable or doubtful, this one will be good! Let’s ride.
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 FD price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Point Guards
Steph Curry ($10,000 FD / $10,100 DK)
My preseason favorite for NBA MVP has been balling out after missing last season and reminding people just how dominant both he and the Warriors can be when Klay Thompson returns next season. On a ridiculous run over his past 11 games, at what point do we call this streak that Curry is on just his norm? He’s rocking a 33% usage rate while averaging 33.6/5.1/5.9 on 55.2% shooting and 47.5% from behind the arc. Orlando just doesn’t have the defensive capability to stop him, and if Vuc keeps this one close for the Magic, Steph can go nuclear.
Trae Young ($9,200 FD / $9,500 DK)
Back-to-back opportunities for the Hawks to face the Celtics, and Trae’s price has not moved. Despite coming off a 40/3/8 performance just a few days ago in the same spot, Young is still not garnering any ownership at the position whatsoever, and I think that is a big mistake. With the Hawks one game back of a playoff spot in the East, they need their best players to rise to the occasion, and it starts and ends with Trae Young tonight.
Also Consider:
Shooting Guards
Donovan Mitchell ($8,300 FD / $8,300 DK)
I wrote up Donovan Mitchell in this spot the last time Utah faced LA and I have no issues going back to the well. Coming in severely underowned in their last game versus the Clippers, I’m not sure the field realizes how bad the Clippers are at defending primary ball handlers. Since Conley has departed the lineup dealing with injuries, Mitchell has stepped up in a big way, averaging 27.6/5/6.7 on 42.1% shooting, including 24 or more points in his past seven, and nearly 22 FGA per game on a 33.7% usage rate. As long as Conley remains out of the Utah lineup, fire up Mitchell with confidence on tonight’s NBA slate, as he looks to build on his past game versus one of the best of the West, where he dropped 24/8/7 on 41% shooting.
Norman Powell ($5,800 FD / $6,200 DK)
Stormin’ Norm should be in line for a significant workload with Kyle Lowry doubtful to play in this one. In 16 starts this season, Powell is averaging 21 PPG and taking on a big scoring role for a small-ball Raptors lineup, including torching other teams in the first quarter. With the T-Wolves playing little-to-no defense, Powell, Siakam, and VanVleet will be able to carry the load to a Raptors victory here tonight, and the man who “only” played 30 minutes yesterday should be the freshest of them all.
Also Consider:
Small Forwards
Pascal Siakam ($8,700 FD / $7,700 DK)
Although Siakam thrived in this spot earlier in the week, he’ll be in for an even bigger performance with having to cover Lowry’s 24/4/4 scoring line in that one – Siakam took 19 shots in this week’s tilt versus Minnesota, and rightfully so with how well he is playing and how bad their interior defense is, but now he’ll eclipse the 20+ FGA mark and have ample room to collect rebounds and second chance opportunities against the 25th-ranked rebounding team in the NBA. The minutes were heavy last night, and he may be gassed, but this is Nick Nurse and the Raptors – you know Siakam will be good to go for another 40 minutes here tonight.
Brandon Ingram ($8,200 FD / $8,000 DK)
A way out of left field NBA GPP play that I would only consider on FD because of position scarcity, Brandon Ingram finds himself in a good game environment and can thrive here tonight. While I’m likely going to pair Siakam with one of the players listed below, there’s no denying Ingram’s ability to take over a game and score in bunches. Although Zion is my preferred Pelican on this NBA slate, Ingram’s volume will increase versus a competitive Suns roster, and if he can find his shot early and often, he could be in for a big night.
Also Consider:
Power Forwards
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,300 FD / $10,800 DK)
He was not a happy camper yesterday in a loss to the shorthanded Raptors, and I fully expect Giannis to take it out on OKC tonight. The back-to-back NBA MVP has been thriving since getting more minutes, to no one’s surprise, and will be counted on yet again here to carry a Bucks team that thought they had strengthened their rotation in the offseason. Sporting a 32.8% usage rate on the season, Giannis is back to doing what we all expected of him, now averaging 28/11.4/5.9 on the season. People will shy away because of a Milwaukee blowout, but when I wrote him up against OKC last time and said they might even steal a win, let alone cover the massive spread, go see how that turned out and rethink a Giannis fade tonight.
Jayson Tatum ($9,400 FD / $8,800 DK)
Would love this play even more if Jaylen Brown sits out with a knee injury, but even if he does play, Tatum is in a great spot versus Atlanta tonight. Whether he is running secondary point guard duties, as I have written up for the past few games, or is attacking John Collins in the paint with Kemba Walker on the floor, Tatum will have ample opportunity to flourish in an underrated game environment; the assist rate has increased, he’s rebounding well, and he proved he can score on this Atlanta defensive scheme last game out. Elite player in an elite spot that will likely get overlooked because of how large the NBA slate is.
Others to Consider:
Centers
The position is absolutely loaded tonight – the two preferred targets are listed, but don’t hesitate to slide in any of the honorable mentions.
Preferred Targets:
Also Consider:
Value Gems: Check the projection model.
I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.
You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost
Sunday’s edition of the Gems will see a ton of high-priced players due to the amount of value we already have available to us on tonight’s NBA slate, with more to come, so make sure you’re reaching for ceiling plays when pairing them with high volume fill-in starters for teams such as Minnesota, OKC, and Orlando.
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 FD price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Point Guards
Luka Doncic ($11,300 FD / $11,100 DK)
No reason not to play Doncic in such an elite game environment considering the amount of value that’s already available to us at the time of writing. Picking up where he left off in a breakout campaign last season, Doncic’s 35.9% usage rate in second in the NBA behind only Bradley Beal, and it shows – averaging 28.5/8.7/9.4 across 35.3 MPG, Doncic is the entire Mavericks offense when Porzingis is having off nights, which seem to be more often than not as of late, and gets the 28th ranked Portland defense tonight.
Damian Lillard ($9,500 FD / $9,600 DK)
On the flipside of the same game as Doncic, we have Damian Lillard, who remains without backcourt partner CJ McCollum. Now sporting a 31.2% usage rate on the season thanks to a 33.8% clip when McCollum is out, Dame averages over 30 PPG and 20.5 FGA per game with his backcourt partner missing in action. The volume will be there, and while Portland’s 28th ranked defense is atrocious, it’s not like Dallas’ 27th ranked defense is all that much better.
Also Consider:
Shooting Guards
Devin Booker ($7,800 FD / $8,200 DK)
Finally turning the corner is one of my favorite players in the NBA and a preseason favorite to cement himself in the league. After a rocky start to the 2021 campaign, Devin Booker is sporting a ridiculous 37.3% usage rate in his past three games, where he is also averaging 34 PPG in 36 MPG. Scoring a point per minute is already an impressive feat, but his run has also led to a five-game winning streak for the Suns, and tonight’s game versus a depleted Orlando team gives Book another chance to keep it rolling.
Collin Sexton ($6,300 FD / $6,700 DK)
I wrote him up the last time the Cavaliers faced off against the Clippers and Collin Sexton did not disappoint: dropping a cool 27 points on one of the league’s best teams is always considered a good night for one of the young Cavs’ bright spots, and last game versus LA was an indication of what he will do again tonight. Playing just over 38 minutes in that contest, Sexton shot the ball 21 times and 52.4% from the field, and there’s no reason to believe he can’t do so again with how much LA struggles versus primary ball handlers.
Also Consider:
Small Forwards
Pascal Siakam ($8,900 FD / $7,900 DK)
While Siakam is by no means the sexiest of names to pay up for on tonight’s NBA slate, he is a good one, nonetheless. With KAT back in the lineup for the T-Wolves, their interior defense actually gets worse than with Naz Reid starting, whereby Minnesota ranks 28th in the NBA in points allowed in the paint with 51.2 per game. Although we may see OG Anunoby returning for the Raptors tonight, he will likely be on a minutes restriction, and Siakam will not lose touches in the paint to Aron Baynes – Siakam only needs little time to inflict damage on this Minnesota defense, and there’s nobody there to stop him on the inside.
Kenrich Williams ($5,500 FD / $5,400 DK)
On such a large NBA slate, never did I think I’d be writing up Kenrich Williams – but here we are. One of the few OKC players that has not been priced out of appropriate range, Williams will likely draw another start at PG with SGA, George Hill, and Theo Maledon all ruled out for tonight’s contest versus Phoenix. In 4 starts this season, Williams has an abysmal 15% usage rate, but that has not stopped his production whatsoever: he’s averaging 12.5/7.5/3.3 on 60.5% shooting during this span where OKC is riddled with injuries, and while the volume isn’t comparable to others in this price range, nobody is a safer lock for 35+ minutes.
Others to Consider:
Power Forwards
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,200 FD / $10,900 DK)
Although the Bucks are heavily favored in tonight’s tilt versus a depleted, rebuilding OKC team, I think they keep it closer than most anticipate; OKC just brought LA to the brink in two straight contests, and there’s no reason to believe why they can’t do the same with Milwaukee. Enter Giannis, who will be attacking the likes of Al Horford and Darius Bazley in the paint all night long, and we have a slate-breaking performance from the back-to-back NBA MVP.
Kristaps Porzingis ($8,000 FD / $8,500 DK)
This is the riskiest play of all the Gems for tonight’s NBA slate, but my intrigue is high for Porzingis because of the field’s caution with one of the league’s most talented stretch-4s. Facing a terrible defender in Enes Kanter will surely give Porzingis ample opportunity to crush both inside the paint and on the perimeter, while the game environment is second to none on the slate. Whether we get 36 points and 7 rebounds in 32 minutes out of him like we saw last game versus New Orleans, or 15 points and 4 rebounds in 19 minutes versus the Hawks the game prior, is yet to be seen, but the risk/reward is certainly there. I may not land here, but at the time of writing, I’d be lying if I said he doesn’t intrigue me tonight.
Others to Consider:
Centers
Nikola Vucevic ($9,900 FD / $9,800 DK)
Similarly to how I preach that Domantas Sabonis is criminally underappreciated in the NBA community, Vuc is right there with him. Sporting a 28.5% usage rate on the season, Vuc has seen a notable uptick in the past few games with the number of injuries his team is dealing with, and rightfully so; on 30.8% usage, Vuc has averaged just over 27 PPG and 13.7 RPG in his past seven, including three of seven resulting in 60 DKFP or more, one being a 77.8 DKFP performance. The price is creeping up, but there’s no reason for him to be underpriced by nearly $1,000, nonetheless.
Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,500 FD / $9,400 DK)
I don’t want to put KAT in the same category as Kristaps Porzingis in terms of risk versus reward, but it’s close. While he has been essentially unowned since returning from his battle with COVID, Towns has seen 31 and 32 minutes in his past two, respectively, resulting in 21.5 PPG to go along with 9 RPG. Versus a weak Raptors interior defense, Towns can break tonight’s NBA slate at such low ownership – no D’Angelo Russell will result in more touches, and this price point is right where we want him.
Also Consider:
Value Gems: Check the projection model.
I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.
You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost
At WIN DAILY®, our motto is to “change your game and change your life.” We want to help you win that bet, parlay, and big DFS tournament and have some fun while you do. Our goal is to help you turn your love of sports into a profit center while playing responsibly and enjoying your time with a like-minded community.
