Ghost

I know many people do not like Sundays but personally, I love them; we have NFL Sundays for a period of time, the summer is all about Boozy Brunches, and everything in between is NBA season. We have a Monday-Friday Gems special, but for Sundays, let’s roll with the Boozy Brunch theme; things are looking tipsy today, so let’s dive in!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 FD price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Cheat Sheet
• Articles of the Day

Point Guards

De’Aaron Fox ($8,000 FD / $8,600 DK)

Has Luke Walton finally figured out that he needs to play his best player 38 minutes per game to have a chance at winning basketball games? Nobody will know, but what we do know is that Tyrese Haliburton is out for the Kings again tonight, meaning Fox will have to shoulder even more of the offensive load than usual. In the past three games, Fox is sporting a 29.6% usage rate over 38.5 MPG, leading to an impressive scoring line of 27.7/3.3/8.3 on 47.4% shooting and 40.9% from behind the arc. Over their last three games, Fox’s opponent, Charlotte, has played at the second-fastest pace in the NBA, something Fox not only enjoys, but does better than anyone in the league. With Graham ruled out for the Hornets, the smaller backcourt of Rozier/Ball will have their hands full.

Chris Paul ($7,500 FD / $7,800 DK)

Still underpriced for his contributions this season, CP3 is in a great spot versus a depleted Timberwolves team. Missing both D’Angelo Russell and Malik Beasley tonight, the T-Wolves will turn to the likes of Anthony Edwards, Ricky Rubio, and Jaylen Nowell to guard the tandem of CP3/Booker – good luck. Averaging 16.6/4.7/8.8 on a 23% usage rate this season, CP3 has been drinking out of the fountain of youth, especially on his recent run, where he’s averaged 17/7/12.5 across 36.2 MPG on a 21.4% usage rate in the last two games. Facing Minnesota, who allows over 25 assists per game, is a dream matchup for the Point God.

Also Consider:

• Ja Morant ($7,100 FD / $7,200 DK)
• LaMelo Ball ($7,600 FD / $8,800 DK)

Shooting Guards

Bradley Beal ($9,600 FD / $9,600 DK)

I really hope Westbrook sits this game, but even if he doesn’t, the sky is blue and I’m breathing, so I’m playing Bradley Beal in my NBA lineups. I would take about his recent games, but frankly, they’re just indicative of what he’s been doing all season long: Beal leads the NBA with a 35.6% usage rate, leads the league in scoring with 32.8 PPG to go along with 5.3 RPG and 4.9 APG, leads the NBA in Point% where he represents 37.3% of his team’s scoring, leads the league in FGA per game with 23.93, shoots 48.3% from the field and 90% from the line. Need I say more?

Terry Rozier ($6,800 FD / $7,900 DK)

With Devonte’ Graham out again for the Hornets, LaMelo Ball and Terry Rozier find themselves playing heavy minutes in a juicy matchup. Ranking dead last in the NBA in defensive rating, the Sacramento Kings have been a DFS goldmine to attack, no matter which position we’re looking at. With the lack of depth/talent in the Charlotte frontcourt that includes Gordon Hayward nursing a hand injury, my attention is on the Hornets backcourt. While LaMelo has the higher upside due to his contributions on the glass and running the offense, in addition to the potential to grab multiple steals tonight versus Fox, Rozier will be the primary scoring option versus a team that allows over 45 FPPG per game to opposing ‘2’ guards.

Also Consider:

• Josh Jackson ($5,700 FD / $6,200 DK)
• Buddy Hield ($5,600 FD / $6,100 DK)

Small Forwards

LeBron James ($11,000 FD / $10,800 DK)

The LeBron/Curry rivalry lives on, with the only difference being LeBron in a Lakers uniform instead of a Cavaliers one. Sporting a 31.9% usage rate on the season, LeBron sees a slight uptick to 32.9% in games without AD, where he is averaging 25.5/8.8/8 on 50% shooting across 35.9 MPG. With Golden State playing at the second-fastest pace in the NBA this season, there will be plenty of opportunity for LeBron to score in transition and facilitate the offense in one of the best games on the slate.

Jimmy Butler ($9,500 FD / $9,700 DK)

Not sure what can be said about one of the fiercest competitors in the NBA right now. Since coming back from COVID, where Miami seemed to be on the ultimate hangover after winning the Eastern Conference Finals, Butler has led his team out of the cellar and into a playoff position. Being 3-9 without Butler in the lineup and 13-8 with him, the Heat will look for another win to keep up in the East, where positions 4-10 are separated by one game. Butler’s 27% usage rate will be the key once again, as he looks to add to his 20.1/7.8/7.8 season averages.

Also Consider:

• Harrison Barnes ($6,500 FD / $6,500 DK)
• Sadiq Bey ($5,100 FD / $5,700 DK)

Power Forwards

Julius Randle ($8,900 FD / $9,500 DK)

While we have a double revenge narrative at the point guard position as DSJ and DRose have swapped teams, make no mistake about it, Julius Randle is the best play in this game. Sporting a 27.7% usage rate on the season, amidst the injury bug to the frontcourt and backcourt carrousel, Julius Randle has been the consistency and talent the Knicks have been lacking for the longest time now. Having a career year on a 23.4/11/5.5 scoring line, Randle sees a Detroit team that allows over 52 FPPG to opposing big men, including 49.5 points per game allowed in the paint, ranking 25th in the NBA.

Draymond Green ($7,800 FD / $7,500 DK)

The price is creeping up for Draymond, but his play is rising exponentially. Despite an abysmal 13.7% usage rate in his past three, Draymond has averaged a 10/10/14 triple-double, including 2.3 SPG and 1.3 BPG. He’s only taking 7.3 shots per game during this stretch, but with shooting 54.5% from the field, his floor is relatively safe right now with the potential for a ceiling game versus a team – or should I say, a player – he gets hyped to play against. In addition, Draymond is 6th in the NBA in APG with 8.7, ahead of the likes of Nikola Jokic, LeBron James, and Damian Lillard.

Others to Consider:

• Jayson Tatum ($9,400 FD / $9,100 DK)
• Marvin Bagley ($6,200 FD / $6,200 DK)

Centers

• Clint Capela ($8,500 FD / $8,400 DK)
• Jonas Valanciunas ($7,400 FD / $7,400 DK)

Also Consider:

• Richaun Holmes ($6,600 FD / $6,500 DK)
• Kelly Olynyk ($4,400 FD / $4,400 DK)

Value Gems: Check the projection model.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

We crushed yesterday’s NBA slate and we’re moving onto another good one tonight with Wet Wednesday’s edition of the Gems. San Antonio is depleted, the Hawks have a ton of injuries, and it’s All-Star snub narratives galore! Spicy takes tonight for the livestream (which you’ll see in the difference in my writing today versus other days) – tune in at 5:45 EST.

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 FD price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Cheat Sheet
• Articles of the Day

Point Guards

Trae Young ($9,600 FD / $9,800 DK)

All-Star snub #1 for this NBA slate: Ice Trae. Now without John Collins, who is likely out with a concussion, Trae Young will be tasked with stealing a win for the Hawks against a Celtics team that just lost on a buzzer-beater to fellow draft pick, Luka Doncic. While Trae doesn’t rebound as well as Luka does, he plays at a much faster pace, allowing him to be one the NBA’s leading players in drives/game, where Boston struggles to defend the paint. Kemba Walker may sit this game out due to load management, leaving Trae in a matchup versus backup guards all night long – giddy up.

Dejounte Murray ($7,500 FD / $7,400 DK)

The Spurs are down to 8 players tonight, maybe 9 if LaMarcus Aldridge plays, but either way, Murray is the one we want exposure to. With DeRozan, Gay, Vassell, Johnson, and White all missing this game because of contact tracing, Murray will get all the run he can possibly handle. One of the most underrated point guards in the NBA and the best player on the Spurs (if you say it’s DeRozan – fight me) is a lock in my main lineup tonight.

Also Consider:

• Malcolm Brogdon ($8,200 FD / $8,200 DK)
• Saben Lee ($5,000 FD / $3,800 DK)

Shooting Guards

Devin Booker ($7,700 FD / $8,300 DK)

All-Star snub #2 for this NBA slate: The Booooook. He’ll likely get in after AD says he’s not playing, and while he shouldn’t have gotten in over CP3, Book deserves to be an All-Star. The NBA slate following the announcements of the reserves is notorious to having narratives surrounding players that were snubbed, and Book leads the pack here tonight in a soft spot versus a smaller Hornets team that just let Utah go 28-for-55 from deep, including Joe Ingles and Jordan Clarkson shooting 12-for-20.

Collin Sexton ($6,900 FD / $7,400 DK)

One of the few offensive threats that the Cavaliers have in a pace-up spot versus a Houston Rockets team that plays no defense. Don’t overlook Sexton tonight, as he will wildly get overlooked, just as he does on every NBA slate, but his 27.5% usage rate and six straight games of 22+ points are hard to ignore.

Also Consider:

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($7,500 FD / $8,500 DK)
• Fred VanVleet ($8,200 FD / $8,600 DK)

Small Forwards

Jimmy Butler ($9,200 FD / $9,300 DK)

He didn’t have to shoot a ton in a blowout victory versus OKC last game, but with Toronto on the schedule for tonight, Butler will track back to a normal workload on the offensive end and be a defensive catalyst. Averaging a near triple-double since returning from COVID, there isn’t a safer a play at the SF position on tonight’s NBA slate, including LeBron James.

Jaylen Brown ($8,400 FD / $8,400 DK)

Just said he doesn’t feel like an All-Star considering the game they had just lost to Luka Doncic and the Mavericks – cue the narrative for JB. In an elite game environment and possibly without Kemba Walker on the tail end of a back-to-back, JB sees an uptick to a 30.2% usage rate and averages 25.3/5.4/3.7 across 33.7 MPG without Walker in the lineup.

Also Consider:

• Cedi Osman ($5,400 FD / $6,000 DK)
• Sadiq Bey ($5,300 FD / $5,600 DK)

Power Forwards

Domantas Sabonis ($9,900 FD / $10,500 DK)

If you’ve never heard a Sabonis rant of mine – tune in to the livestream at 5:45 EST and enjoy. First 20/10/5 player to not make an NBA All-Star game – ok. Leading the Pacers in all important statistical categories – ok. Going up against one of, if not the weakest interior defense in the league after being snubbed in the ASG? Fire me up

Jayson Tatum ($9,400 FD / $9,200 DK)

Love this play if Kemba is out, especially with JB and Tatum expressing their frustrations after last night’s loss to Dallas. Tatum should be the primary ball handler all night long should Kemba sit, as expected, and in a matchup versus Trae Young on the offensive side of the ball, a 25/5/5 is the floor for Tatum, with the potential to score 40+ raw.

Others to Consider:

• Jae’Sean Tate ($6,600 FD / $6,200 DK)
• Draymond Green ($6,600 FD / $6,600 DK)

Centers

• Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,700 FD / $9,700 DK)
• Clint Capela ($8,200 FD / $7,800 DK)
• Jarrett Allen ($7,600 FD / $7,700 DK)
• Wendall Carter Jr. ($5,400 FD / $5,800 DK)

Value Gems: Check the projection model.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

We’re onto another week of NBA DFS and Mojito Monday’s edition of the Gems!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 FD price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Cheat Sheet
• Articles of the Day

Point Guards

Luka Doncic ($11,200 FD / $11,400 DK)

Unless value opens up later on in the day, it will be tough to fit Luka Doncic into our lineups tonight. But this is NBA DFS, we know it will come, and it’s a matter of when it will, not if it will. Doncic is second in the league in usage rate at 35.9% and will be tasked with carrying the Mavericks to a potential play-in round game down the stretch; averaging a near triple-double on the season with 29.1/8.6/9.4, there is no better play on the entire slate, especially against Ja Morant’s defense.

John Wall ($8,500 FD / $8,000 DK)

We joke about PJ Tucker being more of a track-and-field athlete than an NBA player, but this game environment – in fact, no, I can’t do it – no game environment is a reason to play him. However, why not turn our attention to the expected chalk in John Wall? Yes, he will likely be the highest owned player on the slate, and I rarely write those types of plays up, but this spot may be too good to pass up. With Victor Oladipo doubtful, not only will Wall be sharing the backcourt with a spot up shooter in Eric Gordon, but he will also be without Christian Wood and likely DeMarcus Cousins tonight, who is expected to be traded in the near future. While players such as Jae’Sean Tate, David Nwaba, and Eric Gordon may present themselves as better P/$ plays, make no mistake about it, John Wall is the entire Houston offense tonight. The Rockets and Bulls rank 3rd and 4th in pace, respectively, and there is no better play for a fast-paced game than John Wall.

Also Consider:

• Damian Lillard ($10,500 FD / $10,900 DK)
• Chris Paul ($7,500 FD / $7,800 DK)

Shooting Guards

Bradley Beal ($9,800 FD / $9,900 DK)

Am I hesitant to play the leading scorer in the NBA against a stingy Lakers defense? Absolutely not. Sporting the highest usage rate in the league at 36.2%, Beal was just named an All-Star and will look to continue his incredible run this season; he’s averaging 32.9 PPG and scoring at an absurd clip, including only have one game under 24 points this season. One. Shooting the ball over 24 times per game is one thing, but when you’re knocking them down over 47% of the time from the field, yeah, this man can score with ease.

Donovan Mitchell ($8,300 FD / $8,700 DK)

I wanted to write up Eric Gordon here, who I will have a ton of exposure to, but with John Wall already being my chalky write-up of the day, we turn our attention to Donovan Mitchell in a matchup versus the Hornets. With Devonte’ Graham doubtful for tonight’s contest, we’re likely going to see another small-ball lineup from the Hornets here: while Cody Zeller starts, they aren’t shy of pulling him off the court, running PJ Washington at the ‘5’, and shifting Hayward to the ‘4’ with Malik Monk or Miles Bridges on the court. However, this plays right into the Utah lineup as well, who can run a trio of Conley/Ingles/Mitchell, possibly Jordan Clarkson as well, leading to even more scoring opportunity for Mitchell. Having dropped 24 or more points in his last 8 games under a 34.7% usage rate, he’s in top form and could score in bunches tonight.

Also Consider:

• Devin Booker ($7,700 FD / $8,200 DK)
• Eric Gordon ($5,300 FD / $6,300 DK)

Small Forwards

LeBron James ($10,400 FD / $10,400 DK)

At a very thin SF position, The King stands above the rest – as he usually does, and as he should. Yes, he only dropped 19/9/9 against the franchise whom he won multiple NBA Championships with, but if you think LeBron is going to shoot 7-for-21 versus one of the worst defenses in the league as he did versus Miami, think again. The 37 minutes were a massive reassurance that the Lakers are looking to win every game, and with how shorthanded they are combined with how well Washington is playing, this one can be closer than most anticipate, meaning LeBron’s ceiling is as high as it can get on this slate.

Jimmy Butler ($9,200 FD / $9,200 DK)

By no means is Butler a priority for me on this NBA slate, but if it means I’m not scraping the bottom of the barrel for value and pivoting from LeBron to Butler to do so, I won’t hesitate. For the past few slates that I’ve written up, I’ve reiterated how he has been filling up the box score since returning from COVID, and now, 12 games later, he is still doing exactly that: sporting a 27.2% usage rate, Butler has been dropping 21.1/9/8.7 across 35.2 MPG and sees a rebuilding OKC team that will stay in the game long enough for Jimmy to continue his run.

Also Consider:

• David Nwaba ($5,100 FD / $4,600 DK)
• Danuel House ($4,500 FD / $4,700 DK)

Power Forwards

Jae’Sean Tate ($6,600 FD / $5,900 DK)

Not the sexiest of names on an NBA slate on any given day, but Jae’Sean Tate will have ample opportunity to thrive in the best environment tonight. With only PJ Tucker sharing the frontcourt with him, Tate will not only thrive on the wing as the primary scorer at the position, but he will also have more rebounding opportunities on both ends of the floor in heavy minutes.

Kyle Kuzma ($5,700 FD / $6,700 DK)

Not rostering Kuz on DK at this price considering how scoring dependent he is, but on FD, he’s likely the first guy I slot in. He won’t dazzle you with defensive statistics, nor will he get many assists, if any at all, but what Kuz does is provide a secondary scoring option to LeBron that the Lakers need – desperately. In a matchup with the Wizards, who play at the fastest pace in the NBA, there will be more possessions for the Lakers tonight, and, consequently, more scoring and rebounding opportunities for Kuzma.

Others to Consider:

• Robert Covington ($7,000 FD / $6,500 DK)
• Patrick Williams ($4,800 FD / $5,100 DK)

Centers

• Enes Kanter ($6,900 FD / $7,000 DK)
• Wendall Carter Jr. ($5,400 FD / $5,300 DK)
• Kelly Olynyk ($4,500 FD / $4,500 DK)

Value Gems: Check the projection model.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

Another successful day yesterday from the team and we’re looking to keep it rolling with Wet Wednesday’s edition of the Gems! Similarly to last night’s NBA slate, we have a plethora of studs in good spots with value already opening up at the time of writing, with more to come – guys will be high priced, but if you use the projection model to round out your lineup, you’ll be good to go. Let’s ride.

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 FD price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Cheat Sheet
• Articles of the Day

Point Guards

Steph Curry ($10,000 FD / $10,500 DK)

The greatest shooter of all time is on one of those runs that can be scary to fade in NBA DFS. In his past nine games, Curry has dropped 27 or more points in every one, averaging 35.3/5/5.6 across 33.7 MPG during the stretch. Eclipsing a raw point per minute is simply outrageous, but what is even more remarkable is that Curry is shooting 58.9% from the field and 51.4% from deep in his past nine, rocking a 33.3% usage rate and shooting the ball over 20 times per game, including 12 from behind the arc.

Damian Lillard ($9,500 FD / $10,300 DK)

The price is high on DK but it’s well worth it. Dame has now topped 30 or more raw points in six of his past seven, where his 35.4% usage rate has powered him to a 30.3/3.7/8 scoring line on 42.5% shooting. Averaging over 11 three-point attempts during the same stretch, Dame is also getting to the free throw line over eight times per game; with the Pelicans ranking 28th and 30th in the NBA in 3PA allowed per game and APG allowed in their past 10 games, it’s Dame Time.

Also Consider:

• Malcolm Brogdon ($8,000 FD / $7,700 DK)
• Jamal Murray ($6,500 FD / $7,100 DK)

Shooting Guards

Bradley Beal ($9,900 FD / $9,800 DK)

*Searches NBA player who is the most underappreciated this season* DING DING DING – we have a winner: Mr. Bradley Beal! He leads the league in usage rate at 36.3%, leads the league in scoring at 33.1 PPG, he’s taking over 24 shots per game and shooting 47.6% from the field. Now facing a Denver defense that has regressed tremendously since losing Mason Plumlee and Jerami Grant in the offseason, combined with key defenders Gary Harris and Will Barton being ruled out and the rest of the team being on the second half of a back-to-back, Beal will have a field day tonight – and we’re here for it.

Donovan Mitchell ($8,100 FD / $8,300 DK)

I can’t get to the mid range today on DK with the amount of value available to us already combined with the star power on this slate, but Donovan Mitchell makes a case for us to reconsider our NBA lineup construction. I like this play much more should Mike Conley be ruled out, as the Clippers cannot defend primary ball handlers whatsoever. Mitchell is sporting a 33.8% usage rate since Conley has been out, which has led to a stellar 28.2/4.5/6.7 scoring line on 42.3% shooting, including an uptick to nearly 22 FGA per game.

Also Consider:

• Anthony Edwards ($6,000 FD / $6,000 DK)
• Jordan Clarkson ($5,900 FD / $6,500 DK)

Small Forwards

Jimmy Butler ($9,400 FD / $8,800 DK)

Someone who is going to get overlooked on tonight’s NBA slate, Butler will have to do everything in his power to get Miami back into the Eastern Conference playoff picture. They are not far out, sitting only 1.5 games back of Charlotte for the ‘8’ seed, but every game counts. Aside from a dud against a stingy Utah defense a few days ago, Butler has essentially tripled-doubled every game since returning from COVID, averaging 22.6/8.7/8.3 on 44.1% usage over his past nine. In an elite game environment against Golden State, this game can be the one we target for large field tournaments in the form of a Butler-Curry-Draymond stack.

Michael Porter Jr. ($5,500 FD / $6,200 DK)

After a dud yesterday at massive ownership, you know he’s going to drop a 50-point triple-double here tonight – that’s just the way NBA DFS works. After being a rebounding machine in the first quarter yesterday, MPJ essentially faded off the face off the Earth, shooting 0-for-8 from the field and 0-for-5 from deep – do you really think this is possible again? Maybe, but even if you tell me that if he hits 60% of his shots – which would be absurd – it would have only added 10 points to his total and he still doesn’t hit value, right? Wrong. If you know MPJ at all and his style of play, when his shot is dropping, he’ll have the second-most volume on this team behind only Jokic. Giddy up.

Also Consider:

• Punts

Power Forwards

Domantas Sabonis ($9,700 FD / $9,700 DK)

I think it’s sad to say that this is the first NBA slate that I can possibly not play Sabonis; not because he isn’t an elite play, rather I prefer other studs at this price. Nonetheless, he is in a good spot versus a Minnesota interior that simply cannot defend the paint, the perimeter, or anything at all, really. The T-Wolves rank last in the NBA against big men, allowing a league-high 61 FPPG, and will be in touch versus a Brogdon/Sabonis pick ‘n roll combo tonight.

Jayson Tatum ($9,400 FD / $8,700 DK)

I hesitated between Tatum and Draymond Green here, and both make for great plays on tonight’s NBA slate, but I’ll give the edge to Tatum in a better game environment. If you noticed the Celtics rotation yesterday, it was exactly what we wrote up – he comes out at the 6-minute mark, has the floor to himself until the middle of the second quarter, then comes off in favor of Kemba Walker. While this resulted in an impressive 21/6/8 outing, which was also indicative of the increase in assists, as described in yesterday’s article, Tatum only shot 6-for-18 from the field and 1-for-8 from deep. With a lackluster Atlanta defense on tap tonight, expect Tatum to be more aggressive and thrive in this spot.

Others to Consider:

• Zion Williamson ($8,300 FD / $8,200 DK)
• Draymond Green ($7,600 FD / $6,800 DK)

Centers

• Nikola Jokic ($10,500 FD / $11,000 DK)
• Nikola Vucevic ($9,700 FD / $10,100 DK)

Also Consider:

• Clint Capela ($8,000 FD / $7,500 DK)
• Jonas Valanciunas ($7,800 FD / $7,300 DK)

Value Gems: Check the projection model.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

Taco Tuesday’s edition of the Gems is filled with star power – but will we get the value necessary to plug them in? It’s NBA DFS, so you know the answer is yes – early spots look to point to a thin Denver rotation, as well as typical OKC chalk over the past week, so let’s get to it!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 FD price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Cheat Sheet
• Articles of the Day

Point Guards

Kyrie Irving ($9,900 FD / $9,100 DK)

Right back to the well with one of Brooklyn’s finest. In yesterday’s NBA writeup, I pointed out that Kyrie has relinquished the primary ball handling duties to James Harden, but in fact still has a higher usage rate than his backcourt partner and will be relied upon as the primary scorer. Check the box score from last night, come back to re-read this, and see if you want to play Kyrie tonight.

Damian Lillard ($9,500 FD / $9,700 DK)

While OKC are yet again big underdogs, they’ll find a way to keep this one close. Remember what I said so about Giannis and the Bucks and OKC went on to win OUTRIGHT? Giannis put up 70+ DK that night because of how competitive the game was, and Dame is in the same spot here tonight. Sporting a 34.5% usage rate since McCollum went down with injury, Dame has also been averaging 21 FGA per game in that span, including 11 three-point attempts per game. With OKC allowing over 37 three-point attempts on a nightly basis due to the lack of perimeter defense without George Hill, Dame will chuck up 10+ tonight en route to 30+ raw points in an elite game environment that sees the Blazers in a rare pace-up spot.

Also Consider:

• Chris Paul ($7,800 FD / $7,800 DK)
• Jamal Murray ($6,500 FD / $7,200 DK)

Shooting Guards

James Harden ($11,000 FD / $10,800 DK)

From yesterday’s NBA writeup:

“We already mentioned how Kyrie will be the primary scorer for Brooklyn tonight, but there is no denying that Harden can break tonight’s NBA slate. The usage is there for him to carry the ball for 30+ minutes, even with Kyrie stealing some possessions, and with how poorly Brooklyn has been rebounding, Harden averages over 8 RPG in addition to his 11.6 APG since arriving to the Nets. In a fast-paced game, look for Harden to push the transition game and contribute on a ton of buckets.”

Lather, rinse, repeat.

Devin Booker ($8,300 FD / $8,300 DK)

Ah, it’s nice to finally see the Devin Booker I anticipated on seeing this season in our preseason NBA show. Sporting a 34.1% usage rate in his past four games, Booker has dropped 32.3/5/5.3 during the same span on a ridiculous 56.3% shooting on 21.8 FGA per game – the sheer volume is already crazy to see, but shooting 56.3% from the field and 47.6% from deep? Versus Brooklyn’s “defense” tonight at this price? C’mon now

Also Consider:

• Fred VanVleet ($7,500 FD / $8,200 DK)

Small Forwards

LeBron James ($10,500 FD / $10,100 DK)

Zero-Dark-23 mode officially activated – ok, maybe not to the extent that LeBron does in the NBA playoffs considering he has since retired the saying in the bubble, but it’s still time for the King to show that he is still the best player in the league. In five games without AD this season, LeBron has a 31.2% usage rate and a 24.2/8.6/8.2 scoring line on 47.4% shooting. Not only will he have his way with Ricky Rubio or whomever is guarding him, but he can facilitate like no other in the game, and he will have a field day on one of the worst defenses in the league.

Michael Porter Jr. ($5,500 FD / $5,800 DK)

We were off MPJ last game due to uncertainty about what the Nuggets rotation would look like and his tough matchup, but with a softer Boston defense on the wings tonight and an extremely thin Denver rotation, MPJ is certainly back in play. The key here is not that he is likely lining up on Jayson Tatum, but rather when he is not – if you review the Celtics rotation as of late, Tatum comes off in the middle of the first quarter and re-enters the lineup in the second, only to come back out halfway through the second. Guess when MPJ draws the most minutes for the Nuggets? Connect the dots – MPJ isn’t facing Tatum a ton, rather, he is facing the likes of Grant Williams. Giddy up.

Also Consider:

• Norman Powell ($6,500 FD / $6,800 DK)
• Kenrich Williams ($5,200 FD / $5,300 DK)

Power Forwards

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,200 FD / $11,000 DK)

I would scream this from the highest rooftop in the NBA DFS community for people to understand that the Raptors cannot guard the interior! It has gotten so bad that not only are they in talks to acquire Andre Drummond, but they actually have been switching Fred VanVleet, a 6’0’’ guard, onto opposing centers. Who is guarding Giannis tonight? The answer is absolutely no one. Sporting a 32% usage rate in his last three, the back-to-back NBA MVP is averaging 33.3/14.3/7 during that span, including shooting 60.7% from the field on 20+ FGA per game.

Jayson Tatum ($9,400 FD / $8,700 DK)

The price is a tag high for my liking on FD, and with Kyle Kuzma being much cheaper there than he is on DK, I’ll likely be pairing the latter with Giannis. Nonetheless, Tatum makes for an intriguing target on DK in a stack with Nikola Jokic. I touched on the Celtics rotation earlier in the MPJ blurb, but to elaborate a bit more, the Celtics are not confident in their secondary ball handlers with the absence of Marcus Smart from the lineup; Pritchard plays better off the ball, Jeff Teague is in and out of the rotation, and fringe guards since as NeSmith and Edwards just can’t get it done. Enter Tatum, who comes off early on, only to run point from the 6-minute mark to close out the first quarter and begin the second quarter. He will be seeing a ton of backup guards in a thin Denver rotation of Jamal Murray on extended minutes, meaning Tatum will be able to build on his 8 APG in the previous two games before his dud versus Washington.

Others to Consider:

• Zion Williamson ($8,300 FD / $8,200 DK)
• Kyle Kuzma ($5,800 FD)

Centers

• Nikola Jokic ($10,600 FD / $10,700 DK)
• Jonas Valanciunas ($7,800 FD / $7,600 DK)

Also Consider:

• Deandre Ayton ($7,000 FD / $7,100 DK)
• Al Horford ($6,900 FD / $7,000 DK)

Value Gems: Check the projection model.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

Weekends are fun, but nothing beats Mojito Monday’s edition of the Gems. We have a great NBA slate on tap tonight that includes some clear paths to both value and star power, but with an abundance of options this early in the day, and more to come, we’ll have to get it just right. Let’s get to it!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 FD price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Cheat Sheet
• Articles of the Day

Point Guards

Kyrie Irving ($9,600 FD / $9,000 DK)

With Kevin Durant out for the Nets tonight, both Kyrie Irving and James Harden become elite NBA DFS options. Despite Kyrie publicly saying that he has relinquished the duty of primary ball handler to James Harden, the former has a 5% edge in usage rate over the latter; Kyrie boasts a 32.5% clip while Harden sits at 27.4%. With how well Harden has been moving the ball since his arrival in Brooklyn, where he averages 11.6 APG, Kyrie will be the primary scorer tonight in a fast-paced tilt versus De’Aaron Fox and the Kings.

De’Aaron Fox ($8,700 FD / $8,800 DK)

On the flipside of tonight’s most anticipated game is none other than De’Aaron Fox. In a huge pace up spot where both Brooklyn and Sacramento rank in the Top 10 in pace, Fox will be tasked with carrying the offense where the number of expected possessions will be through the roof. With a 30.7% usage rate and 23 or more points in his past eight games for the Kings, he will be a key part of my NBA lineups tonight.

Also Consider:

• John Wall ($7,700 FD / $7,500 DK)
• Malcolm Brogdon ($7,800 FD / $7,700 DK)

Shooting Guards

James Harden ($10,600 FD / $10,700 DK)

We already mentioned how Kyrie will be the primary scorer for Brooklyn tonight, but there is no denying that Harden can break tonight’s NBA slate. The usage is there for him to carry the ball for 30+ minutes, even with Kyrie stealing some possessions, and with how poorly Brooklyn has been rebounding, Harden averages over 8 RPG in addition to his 11.6 APG since arriving to the Nets. In a fast-paced game, look for Harden to push the transition game and contribute on a ton of buckets.

Bradley Beal ($9,800 FD / $8,900 DK)

If you don’t play Beal on DK tonight, I can’t trust you. This price is outrageously low should Westbrook be in, let alone if he gets ruled out on the second half of a back-to-back as anticipated. I can’t throw a ton of statistics at you, but all you need to know is that he leads the NBA in points and usage rate… with Westbrook in. Lock city.

Also Consider:

• Collin Sexton ($6,500 FD / $6,800 DK)
• Jordan Clarkson ($5,500 FD / $5,900 DK)

Small Forwards

Jimmy Butler ($8,900 FD / $8,200 DK)

I’m largely punting small forward to prioritize other studs at premier positions, but the one player I can make a case for is Jimmy Butler. Largely overlooked on tonight’s NBA slate, he’s cheap on both sites and fits the slight price increase on FD due to differential in scoring systems. Even with last game’s dud due to Utah’s stellar defense, Butler is averaging 21.6/8.5/8.1 in his past eight games since coming back from COVID, including sporting a 27.6% usage rate and shooting nearly 12 FTA per game.

On DK, there are players who are multi-position eligible with cheap salaries we look target here – check the projection model. On FD, the goal here is to punt SF, meaning you use the cheaper options listed below to afford some of the players we listed at the PG and SG positions. As such, options are:

• Joe Harris ($4,900 FD)
• Joe Ingles ($4,900 FD)
• Justin Holiday ($4,800 FD)
• Duncan Robinson ($4,100 FD)
• Timothé Luwawu-Cabarrot ($3,800 FD / $3,600 DK)

Power Forwards

Domantas Sabonis ($9,600 FD / $9,100 DK)

Lock city on DK – try to jam him in on FD. That seems to be my approach with Sabonis on virtually every NBA slate, and tonight is no different. Seeing a Chicago frontcourt that gets torched on a nightly basis, Sabonis will have his way with whomever starts for Chicago in this one; he dropped a cool 22/11/10 triple-double last time out in 34 minutes, and I expect more of the same here tonight.

Julius Randle ($8,600 FD / $8,700 DK)

Not sure if the sites update their prices bi-weekly at this point but I’ll gladly take advantage of an underpriced Julius Randle yet again. With the plethora of guards that the Knicks now have at their disposal, both Randle and Nerlens Noel will see all the minutes they can handle on a nightly basis, and that means great things tonight for the former, who will be drawing coverage – or lack thereof – from John Collins. A lock for a double-double, Randle will be a perfect fit in a game environment where the Hawks look to push the pace.

Others to Consider:

• Jarrett Allen ($6,900 FD / $6,700 DK)
• Nerlens Noel ($4,800 FD / $4,400 DK)

Centers

• Clint Capela ($7,800 FD / $7,400 DK)
• Kelly Olynyk ($5,100 FD / $5,100 DK)
• Richaun Holmes ($6,400 FD / $6,000 DK)

Value Gems: Check the projection model.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

We’re changing it up today to focus on cash games as we give our man Adam his first day off in forever to celebrate his anniversary – well deserved my friend! Although I will not be playing cash since today’s NBA slate only consists of 4 games, there is still a path to success with contests galore and money to be won, so let’s get to it.

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 FD price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Cheat Sheet
• Articles of the Day

Point Guards

Steph Curry ($10,800 FD / $10,100 DK)

Rarely will I play Curry in cash games simply because the difference between his ceiling and his floor is much greater than we’d like, but this spot is hard to ignore at a thin point guard position. Although a safe floor is one of the most important characteristics of NBA cash plays, amongst others such as ownership and positional scarcity, Curry has been on a tear, averaging 40.25 PPG in his last four on 57.4% shooting, while taking 23.5 FGA per game and making 30 three-pointers during that stretch. Versus Brooklyn’s defense, or lack thereof, it’s a tough pill to swallow paying 10.8K on FD, but he’ll surely be in DK cash consideration.

Malcolm Brogdon ($7,200 FD / $7,500 DK)

I could’ve easily written up Kyrie Irving here, or Kendrick Nunn, who should be getting another spot start with Goran Dragic sidelined for the Miami Heat, but remember, the Gems today are for cash games, and there is no safer option than Malcolm Brogdon as our PG2 on tonight’s NBA slate. Sporting a 26.1% usage rate for the Pacers, Brogdon is heavily involved on both ends of the floor, and he will be tasked with heavy minutes once again as he attempts to slow down Trae Young. He’ll likely be the highest owned point guard on the slate, and that’s exactly what we need for cash games.

Also Consider:

• Kyrie Irving ($9,800 FD / $9,200 DK)
• Kendrick Nunn ($5,300 FD / $5,900 DK)

Shooting Guards

Eric Gordon ($5,600 FD / $5,800 DK)

With Victor Oladipo out for the Houston Rockets tonight, expect Eric Gordon to slide into the Starting 5 alongside John Wall. In 8 games as a starter this season, Gordon is averaging a respectable 22.8/2.5/3 on 46% shooting – while the concern is real when playing streaky scorers in NBA cash games, his price point is safe enough relative to his floor in this one given his expected volume; Gordon has averaged over 17 FGA per game when starting this season and he has gotten to the free throw line 5 or more times in his past four games.

Jordan Clarkson ($4,700 FD / $5,400 DK)

This goes against my rule for writing up plays under the $5,000 FD price tag, but if Mike Conley remains out for the Utah Jazz, you need to lock in Jordan Clarkson as we anticipate high ownership here. Playing his best when he is the 6th man and first one off the bench, Clarkson has been electric for one of the NBA’s most surprising teams all season long, averaging 17.7/4.3/2 across 25.7 MPG with a whopping 28.1% usage rate off the bench. When he comes into the game, he does so to spark the offense, and will be a lock should Conley miss this one.

Also Consider:

• James Harden ($10,300 FD / $10,400 DK)
• Donovan Mitchell ($8,300 FD / $8,100 DK)

Small Forwards

Kevin Durant ($10,000 FD / $9,600 DK)

Coming off a 3.5 game hiatus after being ruled ineligible to play due to COVID tracing, KD makes his return right in time to face the franchise whom he won two NBA Championships with. Sporting a 30.9% usage rate on the season, KD is currently in the MVP conversation, averaging 29.5 PPG to go along with 7.4 RPG and 5.2 APG. Although he does see a slight decrease when both Harden and Irving are in the lineup alongside him, Durant may see even more minutes at the ‘5’ today with DeAndre Jordan already ruled out for tonight’s tilt; the Warriors will still be without James Wiseman and both teams should have a field day on the inside tonight.

Jimmy Butler ($9,000 FD / $8,300 DK)

I’ll likely be pairing Durant with Danuel House here for the savings, but we cannot ignore what Jimmy Butler has done for the Miami Heat since returning from COVID. In 7 games since making his return, Butler has been filling the stat sheet: not only is he averaging 22.6 PPG, he is also contributing 8.6 RPG and 8.6 APG during this stretch across 34.8 MPG, where the Miami Heat are 5-2. Playing against one of the NBA’s best teams this season will be a daunting task given their defensive skill, but that fits right into Butler’s game – we need to get different in two or three spots to jump the lineup trains, and there’s no better spot than doing so with Jimmy Butler in your lineup.

Others to Consider:

• Joe Ingles ($4,900 FD / $5,700 DK)
• Danuel House ($4,700 FD / $4,200 DK)

Power Forwards

Domantas Sabonis ($9,600 FD / $9,000 DK)

I probably won’t play him in cash today given other priorities in this price range, but I’ll never fault you for slotting in one of my favorite players into your NBA cash lineups. More importantly than how talented Sabonis is, the Hawks have been decimated on the inside all season long – John Collins fouls anyone that breathes within 6 feet of his proximity, and Clint Capela is now dealing with a nagging hand injury that has been limiting his minutes on a nightly basis. Domantas had a rough stretch where he struggled from the field, but after dropping 9 of 14 shots last game to the tune of a 26/8/8/3/2 stat line, good for 62 FD points and 59 DK points, the man is back in prime form in a premier matchup.

Julius Randle ($8,600 FD / $8,700 DK)

While we still do not know the extent of Mitchell Robinson’s hand injury from yesterday’s game, we do know that it is “fractured”, meaning that even if it’s an avulsion fracture, he is still likely to miss at least a few games rather than a few weeks. Enter Julius Randle, who was already playing over 36 minutes per game and will now be tasked with taking some minutes at the ‘5’ as the Knicks take advantage of their plethora of guard options in Derrick Rose, Elfrid Payton, and Immanuel Quickley to run small ball lineups. While Nerlens Noel is also a lock in NBA cash games, do not hesitate to play the two together tonight, as Randle is $1,000 cheaper than he should be, given his career year where he is currently averaging 22.4/11.1/5.8 on 46.9% shooting.

Others to Consider:

• Draymond Green ($7,600 FD / $6,700 DK)
• Nerlens Noel ($4,000 FD / $3,900 DK)

Centers

• On DK, you need to lock in Nerlens Noel ($3,900)
• On FD, use one of DeMarcus Cousins ($6,200) or Kelly Olynyk ($5,100)

Value Gems: Check the projection model.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost