NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 02/19

186

Back to a bigger NBA slate today and more Gems to uncover in Fajita Friday’s edition! Some more star power in great spots, a loaded center position, and value already opening up at the time of writing with notable players marked as questionable or doubtful, this one will be good! Let’s ride.

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 FD price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Cheat Sheet
• Articles of the Day

Point Guards

Steph Curry ($10,000 FD / $10,100 DK)

My preseason favorite for NBA MVP has been balling out after missing last season and reminding people just how dominant both he and the Warriors can be when Klay Thompson returns next season. On a ridiculous run over his past 11 games, at what point do we call this streak that Curry is on just his norm? He’s rocking a 33% usage rate while averaging 33.6/5.1/5.9 on 55.2% shooting and 47.5% from behind the arc. Orlando just doesn’t have the defensive capability to stop him, and if Vuc keeps this one close for the Magic, Steph can go nuclear.

Trae Young ($9,200 FD / $9,500 DK)

Back-to-back opportunities for the Hawks to face the Celtics, and Trae’s price has not moved. Despite coming off a 40/3/8 performance just a few days ago in the same spot, Young is still not garnering any ownership at the position whatsoever, and I think that is a big mistake. With the Hawks one game back of a playoff spot in the East, they need their best players to rise to the occasion, and it starts and ends with Trae Young tonight.

Also Consider:

• Chris Paul ($7,800 FD / $7,700 DK)
• Kemba Walker ($6,200 FD / $6,500 DK)

Shooting Guards

Donovan Mitchell ($8,300 FD / $8,300 DK)

I wrote up Donovan Mitchell in this spot the last time Utah faced LA and I have no issues going back to the well. Coming in severely underowned in their last game versus the Clippers, I’m not sure the field realizes how bad the Clippers are at defending primary ball handlers. Since Conley has departed the lineup dealing with injuries, Mitchell has stepped up in a big way, averaging 27.6/5/6.7 on 42.1% shooting, including 24 or more points in his past seven, and nearly 22 FGA per game on a 33.7% usage rate. As long as Conley remains out of the Utah lineup, fire up Mitchell with confidence on tonight’s NBA slate, as he looks to build on his past game versus one of the best of the West, where he dropped 24/8/7 on 41% shooting.

Norman Powell ($5,800 FD / $6,200 DK)

Stormin’ Norm should be in line for a significant workload with Kyle Lowry doubtful to play in this one. In 16 starts this season, Powell is averaging 21 PPG and taking on a big scoring role for a small-ball Raptors lineup, including torching other teams in the first quarter. With the T-Wolves playing little-to-no defense, Powell, Siakam, and VanVleet will be able to carry the load to a Raptors victory here tonight, and the man who “only” played 30 minutes yesterday should be the freshest of them all.

Also Consider:

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,300 FD / $8,200 DK)
• Fred VanVleet ($8,000 FD / $7,800 DK)

Small Forwards

Pascal Siakam ($8,700 FD / $7,700 DK)

Although Siakam thrived in this spot earlier in the week, he’ll be in for an even bigger performance with having to cover Lowry’s 24/4/4 scoring line in that one – Siakam took 19 shots in this week’s tilt versus Minnesota, and rightfully so with how well he is playing and how bad their interior defense is, but now he’ll eclipse the 20+ FGA mark and have ample room to collect rebounds and second chance opportunities against the 25th-ranked rebounding team in the NBA. The minutes were heavy last night, and he may be gassed, but this is Nick Nurse and the Raptors – you know Siakam will be good to go for another 40 minutes here tonight.

Brandon Ingram ($8,200 FD / $8,000 DK)

A way out of left field NBA GPP play that I would only consider on FD because of position scarcity, Brandon Ingram finds himself in a good game environment and can thrive here tonight. While I’m likely going to pair Siakam with one of the players listed below, there’s no denying Ingram’s ability to take over a game and score in bunches. Although Zion is my preferred Pelican on this NBA slate, Ingram’s volume will increase versus a competitive Suns roster, and if he can find his shot early and often, he could be in for a big night.

Also Consider:

• Michael Porter Jr. ($5,500 FD / $6,100 DK)
• Cedi Osman ($4,200 FD / $4,800 DK)

Power Forwards

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,300 FD / $10,800 DK)

He was not a happy camper yesterday in a loss to the shorthanded Raptors, and I fully expect Giannis to take it out on OKC tonight. The back-to-back NBA MVP has been thriving since getting more minutes, to no one’s surprise, and will be counted on yet again here to carry a Bucks team that thought they had strengthened their rotation in the offseason. Sporting a 32.8% usage rate on the season, Giannis is back to doing what we all expected of him, now averaging 28/11.4/5.9 on the season. People will shy away because of a Milwaukee blowout, but when I wrote him up against OKC last time and said they might even steal a win, let alone cover the massive spread, go see how that turned out and rethink a Giannis fade tonight.

Jayson Tatum ($9,400 FD / $8,800 DK)

Would love this play even more if Jaylen Brown sits out with a knee injury, but even if he does play, Tatum is in a great spot versus Atlanta tonight. Whether he is running secondary point guard duties, as I have written up for the past few games, or is attacking John Collins in the paint with Kemba Walker on the floor, Tatum will have ample opportunity to flourish in an underrated game environment; the assist rate has increased, he’s rebounding well, and he proved he can score on this Atlanta defensive scheme last game out. Elite player in an elite spot that will likely get overlooked because of how large the NBA slate is.

Others to Consider:

• Zion Williamson ($8,700 FD / $8,400 DK)
• Chris Boucher ($7,200 FD / $6,300 DK)

Centers

The position is absolutely loaded tonight – the two preferred targets are listed, but don’t hesitate to slide in any of the honorable mentions.

Preferred Targets:

• Nikola Jokic ($10,600 FD / $11,000 DK)
• Joel Embiid ($10,300 FD / $10,700 DK)

Also Consider:

• Nikola Vucevic ($9,700 FD / $9,900 DK)
• Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,300 FD / $9,200 DK)
• Clint Capela ($8,000 FD / $7,200 DK)
• Jonas Valanciunas ($7,700 FD / $7,100 DK)

Value Gems: Check the projection model.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost