NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 02/25

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Thirsty Thursday’s edition of the Gems sees another NBA slate with a ton of star power and value that will flood in throughout the day as player news comes in. A few games are specifically high on my list, so we’ll be targeting those and analyzing why they are the best spots to be in.

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 FD price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Cheat Sheet
• Articles of the Day

Point Guards

Jamal Murray ($8,300 FD / $8,400 DK)

Bubble Jamal Murray has entered the chat. Seeing 36.4 MPG in his last six, Murray is averaging 31.5/6/5 on 57.1% shooting and 51.9% from behind the arc. Not only has his efficiency been off the charts, but he is also taking nearly 20 FGA per game during that span (19.8), including 9/game from deep. Sporting a 30.6% usage rate in his last six, Murray gets a juicy matchup versus a turnover prone Russell Westbrook who loves to push the pace – buckets galore for my fellow Canadian tonight.

Ja Morant ($7,200 FD / $7,400 DK)

I will continue to play primary ball handlers against the Clippers, especially when they are at such low ownership. Whereby the Clippers have defensive ability in PG13 and Kawhi, there is no denying what primary ball handlers have done to them: Westbrook just dropped 20/9/10, Kyrie dropped 28/4/8, Mitchell dropped 35/4/5, need I go on? Ja Morant is the key to the Memphis offense along with Jonas Valanciunas; through his 29.1% usage rate on the season, Ja is averaging 19.1/3.2/7.9 on 45.6% shooting, and I’m expecting a big game from the sophomore here tonight.

Also Consider:

• Luka Doncic ($11,000 FD / $10,900 DK)
• Derrick Rose ($5,700 FD / $4,600 DK)

Shooting Guards

Bradley Beal ($9,800 FD / $9,200 DK)

We meet again, my friend. Bradley Beal finds himself in an elite game environment tonight – not only because his Wizards play at the fastest pace in the NBA and have the 27th ranked defense in the league, but because Denver continues to be on a thin rotation amidst the losses of Paul Millsap, JaMychal Green, Gary Harris, and PJ Dozier. In their last three games, Denver has a 24th ranked defensive efficiency rating, something that bodes well for Beal & Co. Leading the NBA in scoring at 32.7 PPG and in usage rate at 35.8%, Beal is the Wizard I want every night, and tonight is no different.

Terrence Ross ($6,200 FD / $6,700 DK)

An interesting target in GPPs today, Terrence Ross is in a game environment that suits his playing style to a tee. Despite coming off the bench for a shorthanded Magic team, Ross has still managed to sport an impressive 28% usage rate while playing 31.5 MPG – sounds like starter statistics to me. In a matchup versus the high-flying Nets, the Magic will need as much offense as they can get to help Vuc out, and Ross is the guy: over the last 5, not only is he sporting a 28% usage rate over 31.5 MPG, but he’s also averaging 21.4 PPG to go along with 5.6 RPG on 46.4% shooting.

Also Consider:

• James Harden ($11,200 FD / $10,800 DK)
• Paul George ($8,600 FD / $8,800 DK)

Small Forwards

Michael Porter Jr. ($5,700 FD / $6,000 DK)

His price is increasing, but as one of the highest owned players on the NBA slate, you need MPJ in cash tonight. However, my interest in him does not stop there – can we really not consider the #3 scoring option in GPPs that is in a high-paced environment versus one of the worst defensive teams in the league just because he is high owned? Absolutely not – MPJ is fully in play for GPPs as well, especially when he’s getting 40 minutes like he did just a few days ago against Portland. The Nuggets need offense, and MPJ is the guy they need to step up with Mal and Joker here tonight.

RJ Barrett ($5,500 FD / $5,500 DK)

With everyone debating Quickley versus DRose tonight with Elfrid Payton listed as doubtful, why not go with Door #3 in RJ Barrett? While we do not know who will get the most run between Bullock, Burks, Rose, and Quickley, we know that RJ Barrett will be counted on to log heavy minutes here tonight for Thibs’ Knicks. While he is inconsistent in his product, the minutes will be there, and his 23.9% usage rate on the season shows why he is averaging 16.2 PPG on 42.5% shooting – he has the talent, and with the level of uncertainty between the other four pieces to replace Payton, I’ll take Barrett.

Also Consider:

• Kawhi Leonard ($9,700 FD / $9,300 DK)
• Brandon Ingram ($8,000 FD / $7,900 DK)

Power Forwards

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,400 FD / $11,000 DK)

Talk about a good matchup for the NBA’s back-to-back MVP. I don’t have to read Picks & Pivots to know that Brian has already mentioned how bad New Orleans is against guards and in the paint – honestly, they’re just bad at defense in general, logging the second-worst defensive rating in the league over their last 10 games. The duo of Robert Williams and Tristan Thompson torched them, Mason Plumlee went for back to back 50 DK point performances, and now they’re up against Giannis? Good luck stopping him tonight – read PnP for more details here.

Zion Williamson ($8,500 FD / $8,600 DK)

He’s on one of these runs where we just can’t ignore him on any NBA slate. Zion has been thriving in the faster, more efficient New Orleans offense as of late, where he has a 29.2% usage rate over the past ten games, averaging 29 PPG across 32.8 MPG on a ridiculous 66.7% shooting – read PnP for more details here.

Others to Consider:

• Julius Randle ($8,900 FD / $9,100 DK)
• Nerlens Noel ($5,400 FD / $4,800 DK)

Centers

Nikola Jokic ($10,800 FD / $10,400 DK)

Big Honey is in a prime matchup against the Wizards, as I have already covered in the Murray, Beal, and Porter Jr. blurbs. Rather than go over the game environment again, I’ll just fill you in on Joker’s MVP season so far: averaging 27/10.9/8.4 on 56.2% shooting, 40.8% from deep, playing just under 36 MPG with a 29.3% usage rate. Giddy up!

Nikola Vucevic ($9,900 FD / $10,000 DK)

One of the most underrated players in the NBA this season, I’m thrilled to see Vuc get the recognition he deserves with an ASG nod. If the Magic want to stay in this one with Brooklyn, just as in every other night, Vuc will need to be the reason why: he’s averaging 23.9/11.7/3.7 on 47.9% shooting, including a whopping 20 FGA/game, including a career-high 6.3 3PA, where he’s shooting 40%. The 28.9% usage rate doesn’t do him justice; Vuc is the Magic, the Magic are Vuc, and he’ll need to bring it versus one of the Beasts of the East.

Also Consider:

• Joel Embiid ($10,400 FD / $9,900 DK)
• Richaun Holmes ($6,400 FD / $5,700 DK)

Value Gems: Check the projection model.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost