Happy New Year’s Eve to all! Of all the things you can possibly be doing at this moment, I appreciate you checking in to read our NBA content and the continuous support!
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Point Guards
De’Aaron Fox ($7,900 FD / $7,800 DK)
If you’ve kept up with the preseason NBA content, you’d know just how high I am on the kid playing in the small market of Sacramento. De’Aaron Fox plays at an unbelievable pace – seriously, he’s just so fast – and now, the Kings offense is as well. Enter a matchup versus Houston, who also plays at a Top-5 pace in the NBA, Fox will be able to thrive in this type of game environment and build on his season average of 20.3/2.8/6.8. Core Play.
Others to Consider:
Shooting Guards
James Harden ($11,500 FD / $11,000 DK)
Do I really need to tell you to get as much Harden in your NBA lineups as possible right now? No? Good. Yes, Wall, Cousins, Gordon, and co. are all back, but that won’t affect Harden at this price tag – while we continuously look for value plays to exceed their ceiling, when a stud puts up 60 FP for roughly 5x his price, you lock him in because he’s likely the highest scoring player on the slate. Huge pace-up spot for the Rockets here, who are already a Top-5 team in the statistic, in addition to have some of the worst defenders at the guard positions who love to turn the ball over in transition. Giddy up. Core Play.
Tyrese Haliburton ($4,900 FD / $4,900 DK)
Have you watched the NBA ROY preseason prediction show? If not, please do so – it’d mean a lot to me. If you did, then you know how high I am on Haliburton this year and for the outlook of his career, and it starts right here tonight. I’ll dive into the details on the stream at 1pm, so make sure to tune in.
Others to Consider:
Small Forwards
Brandon Ingram ($9,400 FD / $8,000 DK)
Sporting nearly a 30% usage rate thus far this season, BI picked up right where he left off after winning Most Improved Player last NBA season. This young Pelicans team still has time to grow – and they’ll need it – but Ingram is quietly flourishing on the offensive end to form quite the 1-2 punch with Zion; Ingram is averaging 23.3/7/6.5 across 34.5 MPG and is a cog for this Pelicans offense in a great game environment.
OG Anunoby ($6,500 FD / $5,800 DK)
Never thought we’d get here on an NBA slate, but it’s the nature of the beast. OG is thriving for the Raptors and is channeling his inner Siakam for MIP early on; the usage rate is not pretty at a mere 13.3% and he’s the clear #4 option behind Lowry, Siakam, and FVV, but with 3.3 steals and 1.3 blocks per game, Anunoby is a legit DFS option tonight, especially on FD where defensive statistics are worth more than on DK at a thin SF position.
Others to Consider:
Power Forwards
Zion Williamson ($8,300 FD / $7,900 DK)
Both he and BI will be able to shoulder the load versus a depleted OKC roster with 0 difficulty. Having shipped Steven Adams over to New Orleans in the offseason, OKC has no paint presence to be able the sophomore who is already averaging 21.3/9.3 on a 28.3% usage rate.
Julius Randle ($8,000 FD / $8,800 DK)
Don’t expect another 30-point triple-double, but Julius Randle is still unpriced over on FD while being a tad expensive for my liking on DK. With RJ Barrett and Elfrid Payton having to deal with the backcourt duo of Lowry and FVV on defense, Randle is the one to keep an eye on, who can lose Siakam on defensive switches. Playing just under 38 minutes per game, Randle is off to a tear in the early stages of the NBA season, averaging 24.8/10.5/7.5 on 55.6% shooting.
Others to Consider:
Centers
Rudy Gobert ($7,700 FD / $7,500 DK)
Safest option on this NBA slate where the options are greasy to say the least; Rudy will always have a low usage rate on offensive given the guard tandem of Conley/Mitchell/Clarkson but that has not stopped him from putting up 16.7 PPG. Moreover, he’s his usual dominant self on the glass, averaging a whopping 14.3 RPG and is one of the best defensive players in the league. Facing a foul prone Ayton, Gobert will have his way in the paint tonight.
Others to Consider:
Value Gems: Check the projection model here.
I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.
You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost
We’re back for another edition of the Gems to break down today’s 6-game NBA slate. Despite there being a limited number of players to choose from compared to prior slates that were much larger, we still need to plant our flag somewhere and make the tough decision on which games matter most in order for us to be successful. The majority of yesterday’s news came after lock, but that’s what NBA DFS is: uncertainty, late scratches affecting our lineups, and the ability to swap players makes all the difference in the world.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Point Guards
Trae Young ($9,800 FD / $9,600 DK)
Sure, he didn’t smash in the spot he was in just a few days ago against the Pistons, but if the Hawks want to stay in this game, let alone potentially win it, Trae Young will have to go nuclear. Sporting a 34.3% usage rate, Trae is averaging 34 PPG to go along with 4 rebounds and 7.3 assists, all while shooting 53.1% from the field and 42.1% from deep. He will be a core piece of my main NBA DFS lineup tonight.
Kyrie Irving ($9,400 FD / $8,900 DK)
Despite having to share the ball with Kevin Durant throughout a game’s entirety, nothing has stopped Kyrie to already posting 29.3 PPG to go with 4.3 rebounds and 6 assists. A lethal scorer from behind the arc, in the post, and slashing to the basket, Kyrie faces Trae Young, who ranks as one of the worst defenders DVP at the position in a game with the highest over/under on the NBA slate.
Damian Lillard ($9,200 FD / $10,000 DK)
Although his usage has taken a hit with CJ McCollum rolling on offense in the past few games, Lillard is the guy that can walk onto any court, in any matchup, and drop 50 on us without anyone realizing just how good of an NBA DFS play he is from night to night because of these stacked slates. While the efficiency can certainly improve, the volume for Dame remains despite a slight drop in usage to 28.5%; he is still averaging 18.5 field goal attempts per game and 24 PPG and is in a marquee matchup versus the Clippers.
Jrue Holiday ($6,400 FD / $6,400 DK)
We finally saw what the Bucks thought they had acquired in Jrue Holiday yesterday, where he took advantage of a gamescript where Milwaukee did not need Giannis on offense; Holiday dropped a cool 24/3/7 with 3 steals and a block, including going 6/10 from behind the arc. They are finally giving him more touches than DiVincenzo and he’ll be a core piece again tonight on FD, especially if Butler plays, which will make this one more competitive. *Edit* Still a fine play even with Butler ruled out, but tread carefully.
Shooting Guards
CJ McCollum ($8,400 FD / $7,900 DK)
You need to consider him if you are not playing Dame. If you have not noticed, the two games I am targeting most on this NBA slate is ATL/BKN and POR/LAC with some MIA/MIL – I do not enjoy rostering McCollum because he has a tendency to go invisible on us at times, but with how well he has played out of the gate, you need to consider him while he remains affordable. Currently averaging a higher usage rate than Lillard at 29.7%, McCollum has dropped a whooping 29 PPG while shooting 43.7% from the field and 42.9% from 3.
Jimmy Butler ($8,000 FD / $7,500 DK)
Way too cheap for the engine of the Miami Heat. Whether it be a defensive assignment, carrying the offense, or like most nights, a hybrid of both, Butler is simply too cheap for his ceiling in this marquee matchup versus Milwaukee. The injury concern does not worry me one bit – he sat out yesterday for a reason. Butler has been slow out of the gate riddled with injuries, but if he’s a go, I’ll have a ton, especially on DK. OUT
Khris Middleton ($7,800 FD / $7,400 DK)
I mentioned him yesterday as a pivot to a chalky Giannis and we had the right concept – it just happened to be more Holiday over Middleton. If Butler plays, I’ll be all over Middleton yet again who has been having quite the season thus far, averaging 26.3/6.5/5.8 across 4 games and is the secondary option for this Bucks team that will need contributions from both he and Jrue Holiday to take back-to-back games in Miami. *Edit* Less Middleton for me now that Butler is out.
Small Forwards
Kevin Durant ($9,500 FD / $8,400 DK)
A core piece for me on DK for tonight’s NBA slate, KD is fresh having rested the other night versus Memphis. The SF position is bare with talent, but deep enough to consider fading him on FD, but I won’t be. The upside is massive in a spot versus the Hawks that play at one of the fastest paces in the league and having John Collins on KD, someone who fouls anybody that moves, is no bueno for the Hawks tonight. Because of his foul trouble, where he is averaging 4.3 per game, Collins has only played 24 minutes per game – 24. Now, give me De’Andre Hunter and Bogdan/Gallinari/Reddish on KD? Please lock in the man who is shooting 53.2% from the field, 69.2% from 3, has a true shooting percentage of 56.5% and is averaging over 8 free throws per game.
After Kevin Durant, the selection for the second SF on FD becomes quite interesting. The pool of usable players is quite large compared to other positions, not because there are a ton of great options, but because they are equally mediocre. For now, considering the time of writing is quite early in the day, my player pool will be as followed, but keep up in Discord for updates, as well as updates to the article throughout the day as news rolls in:
Power Forwards
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,000 FD / $10,800 DK)
Nobody’s playing him after yesterday’s dud, but if Butler is in, Giannis skyrockets up my rankings tonight. Having only played his starters 20-25 minutes yesterday, Coach Budenholzer will go right back to well and run them for 35+ minutes should Butler play in this one. Yes, Giannis is only averaging 1.48 FPPM this season, but yesterday’s game has a lot to do with that – he’s a career 1.8 FPPM player and is an elite target on any NBA slate, especially in a matchup that requires him to play 36 for them to win given how shallow their bench is now after acquiring Jrue Holiday.
Jayson Tatum ($9,200 FD / $8,600 DK)
Way too cheap on both sites for someone that is the Boston offense now. Having taken off in the NBA bubble last season, Tatum is right back averaging 25.5/9.3/3.3 and 1.5 steals per game for the Celtics while shooting 44.3% from the field on a whopping 22 FG attempts per game. I much prefer Kyrie/KD/Trae on this slate, but if you’re looking to get different with a pay up spot, Tatum is my guy.
Honorable Mentions:
Centers
Jonas Valanciunas ($7,500 FD / $7,700 DK)
Let everyone else play the Kyle Anderson’s, the Dillon Brooks’ etc. I’ll gladly take the Memphis player I want at surprisingly low ownership at the time of writing. With Ja Morant ruled out for multiple weeks with an ankle injury, look for JoVal to see a notable uptick in usage tonight. I wrote up Myles Turner yesterday and got him at 0.6% ownership versus this very same Celtics frontcourt of Theis/Thompson – and he went on for 16/6 with 2 steals and 3 blocks, good for nearly 40 fantasy points – and he has half of the offensive upside that Valanciunas has. Give me the big man as my main center on FD.
Value Gems: Check the projection model here.
I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.
You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost
We are on a roll six slates into the NBA season and we will continue to do so tonight with another heavy schedule on tap. With the key news of yesterday coming as a shock to some, let me take the time to remind you that what happened yesterday is NBA DFS in a nutshell: make a lineup before lock approaches, and you fail to adjust accordingly. Make sure to stay on top of the news and be on your laptop/phone at least one hour prior to lock to maximize winnings.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Looking into today’s NBA slate, as stated above, it’s important to keep up with the news – Jimmy Butler is trending to being out for the Heat, while the Clippers may also be without Kawhi Leonard tonight after an accident with Serge Ibaka that saw Kawhi catch an inadvertent elbow to the face. Before the slate turns on its head, let’s have a look at an early player pool:
Point Guards
Russell Westbrook ($10,600 FD / $9,700 DK)
Coming off a game where he sat out for rest, Russell Westbrook is in a smash spot for today’s premium price range at the point guard position. The price on FD is a bit much for my taste, but I’ll have a ton of shares on DK; Westbrook is coming off back-to-back triple-doubles in his first two games for the Wizards and will be facing a Chicago Bulls team that cannot guard the backcourt after losing Kris Dunn in the offseason and Tomas Satoransky still recovering from injury. Although his efficiency has been as bad as it gets in the NBA, the volume is simply undeniable; Westbrook has taken a whopping 41 shots in two games, having a 31.8% usage rate on the offensive end of the ball.
Stephen Curry ($9,400 FD / $9,600 DK)
All it took was a juicy matchup versus the very same Bulls team we just spoke about above for Curry and the Warriors to get the monkey off their backs. Coming off the crucial first win of the NBA season, Curry now sees a Detroit Pistons team that will be sending out a combination of rookie Killian Hayes and Derrick Rose to guard the 2-time MVP. His 3-point shooting efficiency hasn’t been as deadeye as prior years, but with a ridiculous 35 attempts in just three games, Steph has the potential to break the slate tonight.
Malcolm Brogdon ($7,500 FD / $7,200 DK)
Let the rest of the NBA community continue to sleep on these Indiana Pacers, and I will continue going right back to them at low ownership. Criminally underpriced in a playoff-type matchup, Malcolm Brogdon has been the cog of this Pacers offense since coming over from Milwaukee and forming quite with the duo with a certain PF you’ll read about shortly. Yes, the matchup is not ideal versus Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown, but it’s more so the fact that Vegas has this game as the tightest on the NBA slate – and rightfully so. Averaging 21.3/4.7/6.3 and 1.7 steals per game in his first three, Brogdon will be relied upon heavily in this one.
Goran Dragic ($6,900 FD / $5,800 DK)
Assuming Jimmy Butler is ruled out for tonight’s contest versus the Bucks, look for the guard trio of Dragic, Robinson, and Herro to pick up the slack on offense while Bam Adebayo is tasked with guarding Giannis throughout the game. Coming off the bench in both appearances for the Heat this far, Dragic has been his old self, contributing 19/3/8 on 58.3% shooting and having a 27.1% usage rate.
Honorable Mention: Jrue Holiday ($6,400 FD / $6,700 DK)
Shooting Guards
Bradley Beal ($9,600 FD / $9,300 DK)
The highest over/under on the NBA slate by 8 points and two teams that don’t play defense? Yeah, you need a piece of this game in some form. If you’re not playing Westbrook, I’d strongly consider Beal as an alternative if you are not comfortable with the value pieces in this one. Yes, Westbrook was assumed to have been stealing touches from Beal, but that is not the case whatsoever – Beal has a 35.9% usage rate this season and he has picked up right where he left off last season, already averaging 33/4.7/5, including games of 29, 31, and 39 points, respectively.
Khris Middleton ($7,800 FD / $7,700 DK)
A great tournament pivot to a chalky Giannis Antetokounmpo, Middleton is silencing doubters, myself included, with his early-season performance as the Robin to Giannis’ Batman. Grabbing at least 4 boards and 5 assists in every game thus far, Middleton is averaging a quiet 26.7/7.3/6 across three games thus far in 32 minutes per game. With the Heat being so concerned with Bam guarding Giannis, Middleton will have ample opportunity to switch onto whoever he likes on the offensive end with Butler presumed out.
Paul George ($7,600 FD / $8,500 DK)
Should Kawhi be ruled out as anticipated in this one, PG13 becomes a near-lock for me on this NBA slate. Already having a 30% usage rate, PG sees a notable uptick to 33.4% with Kawhi off the floor. Look for both he and Lou Williams to shoulder the load on offense tonight versus a Timberwolves team that will be without their sole defender in Karl-Anthony Towns.
Devin Booker ($7,500 FD / $9,100 DK)
His price is steep enough on DK to warrant his low ownership, but Booker should not be this underowned on FD. Yes, he is surrounded by pieces listed both above and below him, but that’s exactly why I’ll have a ton of him. I love attacking Suns games because their defense is questionable at best, and they love to play an up-pace type of offense. A game versus the Pelicans who are even worse defensively and push the pace even more? Sign me up for a mini stack in this one in the form of Booker paired with Ingram or Zion.
Zach Lavine ($7,500 FD / $8,400 DK)
We said we wanted a piece of the Washington game, and there is no better Chicago Bull to play on any given night than their star shooting guard. A slasher that has the ability to knock down a jump shot, Lavine has really rounded his offensive game in the past few seasons and has become a legit offensive player in the NBA. You’ll need his scoring to get you there for NBA tournament play, but he has the ability to score in bunches given his 34.1% usage rate and Coby White’s struggles early on.
Honorable Mention: D’Angelo Russell ($7,300 FD / $7,600 DK)
Small Forwards
Brandon Ingram ($8,500 FD / $8,200 DK)
As mentioned in the Devin Booker blurb, this game is a big piece of my NBA lineups tonight: high total, fast pace, two teams that don’t play defense. Check, check, check. Ingram and Zion are on a mission this season to prove the league they have grown as players and Ingram’s Most Improved Player award was no fluke; the latter is underpriced on DK while being a premium option at the forever-thin SF position on FD, averaging a nice 26.7/7.3/6.7 in 36.7 minutes per game on 44.1% shooting and 30.2% usage.
Larry Nance Jr. ($5,500 FD / $6,300 DK)
Filling in for the injured Kevin Love, Larry Nance Jr. will always be a target for our NBA DFS lineups in these exact situations. Rocking a mere 15.3% usage rate, Nance blows up on offense when the Cavs are this depleted in the frontcourt and on the wing, becoming a legitimate threat alongside Andre Drummond, Collin Sexton, and Darius Garland. He’s a stone cold lock for your FD cash games, and at $5,500, his ceiling potential is there, but be careful on DK where a 30-point effort is simply not enough for his price tag.
Honorable Mention: Tyler Herro ($4,500 FD / $5,700 DK)
Others:
Power Forwards
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,000 FD / $10,800 DK)
Not much to say here about the NBA’s back-to-back MVP; he’s averaging over 1.9 FPPM, the Bucks bench is as depleted as it gets in the NBA, and Jimmy Butler is likely going to be out. With Bam Adebayo still drawing as a tough matchup for Giannis, Milwaukee has been crafty enough to open him up and offsetting some minutes between he and Middleton.
Domantas Sabonis ($8,900 FD / $8,600 DK)
Hopefully you’re noticing a pattern by now: Indiana is on the NBA slate? Sabonis will be in my article. This guy deserves the respect of not only the NBA, but the DFS community alike in what he does, day in, day out on the court for this Pacers team. He is a lesser version of Nikola Jokic in the sense that his court vision is elite for a big man, he’s able to pass the ball exceptionally well, and can scoring in multiple ways. Facing an offensive-minded Jayson Tatum now, Sabonis should be able to bully his way into the post and be a strong rebounder on both ends of the court tonight.
Zion Williamson ($8,600 FD / $8,100 DK)
Both he and Ingram are on an absolute tear to begin the NBA season, averaging 21.7 PPG. Despite the lower usage rate than his fellow teammate, Zion has been a force on the glass, averaging 11.7 rebounds per game and will see a Suns frontcourt that is constantly battling struggles on the defensive end and foul trouble.
Honorable Mention: Julius Randle ($7,700 FD / $8,200 DK)
Centers
Nikola Jokic ($10,300 FD / $10,200 DK)
The walking triple-double, it’s been every Nuggets game where I have written up The Joker, and it is not going to stop any time soon. I refer to him this way because, not only is he the best passing big man in the NBA, but he has been an absolute force on the glass, averaging 12 rebounds per game, and can score any way he wishes. Tread carefully on the second half of a back-to-back, but Jokic is in yet another smash spot versus a Sacramento frontcourt that features two of the worst defenders DVP at the position in Hassan Whiteside and Richaun Holmes.
Pool:
FD Bonus Plays: Thomas Bryant ($5,200) and Wendall Carter Jr. ($5,100)
Value Gems: Check the projection model here.
I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.
You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost
Thank you to the one and only 2Lock for covering me yesterday! We had another great NBA slate and members are making ground on building bankrolls and already taking down tournaments!
We also lead by example and play exactly what we write/discuss in Discord – shoutout the 2Lock for this hit!
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Looking into today’s NBA slate, it’s important to keep up with the news – we have another shorthanded Houston Rockets team as John Wall, Demarcus Cousins, and others continue to quarantine, along with the possibility of Kevin Durant sitting out, and news to follow on a certain duo in LA in LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Let’s get to it:
Point Guards
Trae Young ($9,800 FD / $9,500 DK)
Despite only having five games on today’s NBA slate, the group of elite point guards is not shallow, beginning with the man out of Atlanta. Trae Young has been on an absolute tear two games into the season, averaging 36.5/4.5/8 on 55.6% shooting across 30.5 minutes per game. Playing a Detroit team that averages over 48 FPPG allowed to the point position and lining up versus rookie Killian Hayes, Trae will be able to do whatever he wants on the offensive end of the ball tonight.
*Edit* After Kyrie Irving got announced OUT, I am now locking in one of, if not both Trae Young and Ja Morant in every lineup.
Kyrie Irving ($9,400 FD / $9,000 DK)
It doesn’t take too long to get some news in our player pool with Kyrie Irving possibly suiting up for the first time without Kevin Durant tonight. The latter, who is coming off a gruesome achilles injury, will likely be sitting on the second half of their back-to-back, leaving Kyrie running the offense on his own. Potentially without Spencer Dinwiddie as well, Kyrie has a 34.8% usage rate with these teammates off the court and will be lining up on sophomore Ja Morant, who has been one of the worst defenders DVP in his young NBA career in addition to being turnover prone. OUT
Damian Lillard ($9,400 FD / $10,300 DK)
The forgotten about stud at the position, Dame has been ice cold to start the season – but can break out at any time – and I will be there for it when it happens. While the other three targets at the position are a priority for me over Dame, his volume is simply undeniable for his upside: in their last game versus Houston, Dame dropped a whopping 32/5/9 despite only shooting 11/28 from the field and 5/13 from deep. Should he improve his efficiency from the field and hit the deck much harder in his mid-range, look out.
*Edit* Underrated stud still not pulling ownership after Kyrie Irving was ruled OUT
Ja Morant ($8,500 FD / $8,300 DK)
One of 3-max entries will consist of Harden and the point guard battle in this game. Ja is on a mission to set the league on fire after an impressive rookie campaign and having led the Grizzlies to a play-in position for the playoffs in the West. Playing a relentless number of minutes, Morant is already averaging 36/2.5/8 in the first two games of the season and has a 35.1% usage rate.
*Edit* See Trae Young edit
Honorable Mention: Jamal Murray ($7,100 FD / $7,100 DK)
Shooting Guards
James Harden ($11,500 FD / $11,200 DK)
The most prolific scorer of our generation is a lock on this NBA slate – again. There are no statistics that need to be mentioned here, just play the man. The Rockets will be undermanned again, and he’ll carry them all night long. Last game: 34.3% usage rate, 1.82 FPPM, 44/4/17. 44 points. 17 assists. Are you kidding me?
Dennis Schroder ($6,000 FD / $6,100 DK)
This play hinges on the fact that LeBron sits on the second half of a back-back, but we like to take a stab at where the news will likely trend when writing up plays and follow up afterward. Specifically if Bron sits, Schroder will see a significant bump in usage and work on the offensive side of the ball as he runs the pick ‘n roll with AD and will be relied upon to be the second scoring option.
FD Special: Dillon Brooks ($3,700)
DK Special: Svi Mykhailiuk ($3,600)
Small Forwards
Caris LeVert ($6,300 FD / $6,600 DK)
Similarly to Kyrie Irving, Caris LeVert is in a great spot with Brooklyn injury news to follow. With KD and Spencer Dinwiddie off the floor, LeVert has a whopping 32.8% usage rate as he has been relied upon to run the second unit with Dinwiddie getting the start early this season. With the highest over/under on the NBA slate and with how fast both teams play, I certainly want to attack this one, and LeVert will be a big piece of that.
*Edit* Lock of the slate with James Harden
Jerami Grant ($5,700 FD / $5,900 DK)
These Detroit players have been quite the gems for us early in this NBA season. See what I did there? Gems? Ghost’s Gems. Dad jokes aside, Jerami Grant is finally getting to thrive in an offensive role on a depleted Detroit team after being relied upon solely for his defensive ability in Denver. He’s a strong rebounder, quietly an underappreciated wing defender, and will see a ton of minutes with Blake Griffin out.
Josh Jackson ($4,300 FD / $4,200 DK)
See above – Detroit will be a primary spot for me to get value on this NBA slate and Josh Jackson has been a Win Daily special early in the season. Getting this guy at 0.5% ownership on a 13-game slate was no surprise, but I trust the model 100% and saw Jackson go for 10x value after being a Top-5 value play in our model. With how depleted Detroit is tonight, specifically with Derrick Rose out, Jackson gives us a great option at a terrible SF position.
Houston Rockets Value
Both Danuel House ($4,100 FD / $4,800 DK) and Jae’Sean Tate ($4,200 FD / $4,100 DK) will see an uptick in minutes with the Rockets being heavily undermanned. With everyone flocking to Danuel House and Sterling Brown on their first game, we were the only ones to have Tate this high in our model and saw him run for 24 DK, good for 8x his minimum price value, at 2% ownership, and outscoring Brown, Nwaba, and House – not bad if I do say so myself. Now, with Tate being more expensive than the others, I’m curious to see where the ownership lands on this NBA slate.
Power Forwards
Anthony Davis ($10,200 FD / $10,100 DK)
Possibly being with LeBron James tonight, AD is in a smash spot. Portland has struggled out of the gate defending bigs, and AD is one of the best to do it in the NBA. A whopping 35.3% usage rate with Bron off the court, AD will have his way with Jusuf Nurkic and Enes Kanter in the paint.
Christian Wood ($8,100 FD / $7,200 DK)
A key focal point in our NBA lineups just a few days ago, Christian Wood is still too cheap here versus Denver. Yes, Jokic is a tough matchup inside. But with the number of minutes this guy is slated to play, he’ll find a way to crush again, especially with backup center Mason Plumlee now in Detroit. Rocking a 27.7% usage rate is nothing eye-popping under normal circumstances, but when you’re sharing the court with James Harden, it is. A 31/13 repeat performance is possible, but even if Wood trends in the 25/10 range, we’ll more than we need out of him at these prices.
Bonus Play: Sekou Doumbouya ($3,500 FD / $3,400 DK)
Centers
Nikola Jokic ($10,000 FD / $9,800 DK)
Another stud that is going to get overlooked on this NBA slate, The Joker is in a prime spot to smash the Houston Rockets. The key? He’s game proof because he’s able to play versus small-ball lineups with his perimeter defending and offensive game. The best passing big man in the game, Jokic is averaging a 26.5/12/12 triple-double in his first two games – if you don’t believe me when I call him a walking triple-double every time I reference him, you will eventually. Game stack this one with Harden/Wood/Jokic.
Clint Capela ($6,500 FD / $5,900 DK)
Making his season debut, I will be overweight on an unowned Clint Capela should we have the news saying he is a full-go with no minutes restriction. Seeing John Collins struggle at the ‘5’ and consistently get into foul trouble has been quite frustrating, but Capela is the piece the Hawks need right now to run the pick ‘n roll with one of the league’s best passers in Trae Young since rookie Onyeka Okongwu is still dealing with injuries.
Bonus Play: Mason Plumlee ($6,000 FD / $5,700 DK): The Win Daily gem…
Value Gems: Check the projection model here.
I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.
You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost
I hope everyone had a nice holiday yesterday! We have another exciting NBA slate ahead with plenty of news to follow, so make sure to stay in Discord for updates as player statuses get updated.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Point Guards
Damian Lillard ($9,000 FD / $9,500 DK)
Dame Time versus Harden? Yes, please. Damian Lillard thrives in these types of matchups, where he is facing another bonafide NBA superstar and likes to set the tone early and shoot often. He is coming off a performance where he was wildly inefficient, dropping a mere 9 points on 4/12 shooting, which is what will keep his ownership lower than it should be in a matchup that will see close to no defense.
De’Aaron Fox ($8,200 FD / $8,700 DK)
If you listened to any of the preseason NBA podcasts or streams, you’ll know by now just how high I am on De’Aaron Fox and his ceiling. Coming off a season where he averaged 21.1/3.8/6.8 and 1.5 steals per game, Fox plays at a ridiculous pace and carries the Kings offense through a 29.8% usage rate. In a matchup versus CP3 and the Suns, Fox will be able to take advantage of the same backcourt that just allowed Luka Doncic, Josh Richardson, and Jalen Brunson to combine for 56 points, 17 rebounds and 10 assists.
Malcolm Brogdon ($7,100 FD / $7,400 DK)
As I wrote in my article for the 12/23 slate where we had 13 games on tap, if you don’t know who Malcolm Brogdon and Domantas Sabonis are by now, you will shortly. Running point for an efficient Pacers offense, Brogdon will be able to take advantage of rookie Coby White, who is impressive on the offensive end of the ball but lacks experience on the flipside. While the Bulls guarded the backcourt extremely well last season, Kris Dunn, who is now in Atlanta, is no longer there, and Tomas Satoransky was a DNP-CD last game. Look for Brogdon and Sabonis to light up the Bulls tonight.
Terry Rozier ($6,400 FD / $7,000 DK)
While chasing a 42-point game is never a good idea, that is not the reason for which I am considering Terry Rozier on today’s NBA slate. While 3rd overall pick, LaMelo Ball, is the future, Rozier does not seem to plan on relinquishing the role any time soon given how he played on opening day. Yes, it was a soft matchup versus the Cavaliers, but the Thunder are even worse having traded most of their playoff roster from last season. With he and backcourt run mate Devonte’ Graham playing 37 minutes apiece on opening day, there is no reason to believe that Rozier cannot exceed value, especially on FD if not paying up at the point guard position, even if Ball gets more run in this one.
Darius Garland ($5,500 FD / $5,600 DK)
With the Cavaliers in NBA purgatory, their roster is simply in shambles. A frontcourt tandem of Kevin Love and Andre Drummond is one that can keep them competitive – or give them two valuable trade assets – but Cleveland needs their backcourt of Garland and Sexton to take the next step this season. Garland had a strong preseason and followed it up with 22/6/6 on opening day versus the Hornets, and he gets another soft matchup here versus Detroit.
Shooting Guards
James Harden ($11,000 FD / $10,900 DK)
The most prolific offensive player in the NBA had quite the offseason; being at the center of wild trade rumors out of Houston, being the center of attention of NBA media, and more, but James Harden is a stone cold lock for me on this slate. Can this game get out of hand? The only way it does is if Harden doesn’t feel like playing, which will not be the case considering Houston is only fielding a roster of 8 players. Even with Russell Westbrook in Houston last season, Harden had the league’s third-highest usage rate at 36.3% and the highest ISO percentage – which can only increase with Westbrook now in Washington. He may very well take north of 30 shots tomorrow and I will be centering my single entry and 3-max builds around him.
Bradley Beal ($8,100 FD / $9,300 DK)
This play gets a whole lot more interesting should Russell Westbrook, who will not play one game of two on back-to-backs, be out. However, even with Westbrook in, Beal makes for a great tournament option considering the field will pair Harden with a value play in most contests. Coming off a season where Beal truly broke out with John Wall injured for the entire season, he thrived having the fifth-highest usage rate in the NBA at 34.4% and saw a similar workload on opening day with 36% en route to a 31/2/3 stat line on 50% shooting.
Donovan Mitchell ($7,700 FD / $8,400 DK)
With Rudy Gobert being tasked with guarding Karl-Anthony Towns and manning the paint, looking for Donovan Mitchell to carry the load on offense versus a Timberwolves team that has luckluster defenders in D’Angelo Russell, Ricky Rubio, and Anthony Edwards as potential matchups for one of the stars from last season’s NBA bubble. Mitchell has the upside we need to take down a tournament, and in a game with a 225.5 over/under, the pace will be there for him to score in bunches. He won’t stuff the sheet with rebounds and assists, making him a risky play, with James Harden soaking up all the ownership at the ‘2’, Mitchell will be sub 2% owned.
Devonte’ Graham ($5,400 FD / $6,700 DK)
He’s a tad expensive on DK, but Graham’s price on FD is laughable. Playing 37 minutes on opening day alongside Terry Rozier, Graham was outshadowed by his backcourt partner’s 42 points, but this will certainly not be the case every night. He was an NBA Most Improved Player candidate last season and offers a ton of upside on both sides of the ball in a marquee NBA DFS matchup versus the OKC Thunder.
FD bonus play: Devin Booker ($7,900)
Small Forwards
This will be a position where we can explore our value options on today’s NBA slate. Rather than writing them all up, make sure to check the projection model to see who is popping in the value column in a group containing Josh Jackson, Sterling Brown, Danuel House, and Isaac Okoro, amongst others.
Power Forwards
Domantas Sabonis ($8,500 FD / $8,500 DK)
I wrote him up for Indiana’s first game and we saw him smash the Knicks for 32/13/5 and 58.3 DK points; if you do not know who Domantas Sabonis is by now, you will by the end of the season. He is the most underrated power forward in the NBA in my opinion and plays a very similar style to Nikola Jokic; a big man with excellent vision, amazing passing ability, and can score many different ways. In a matchup versus an inexperienced Lauri Markkanen and Wendall Carter Jr., Sabonis will provide a solid floor/ceiling combination.
Aaron Gordon ($6,900 FD / $6,900 DK)
Usage is fairly spread out for an Orlando Magic team that is surprisingly balanced with Markelle Fultz, Evan Fournier, Gordon, and of course, Nikola Vucevic, in addition to rookie Cole Anthony coming off the bench. Vuc is the priority for me in my Orlando exposure, as I always love to target Washington’s defense, but where I can, I’ll slide in Gordon for the savings and take advantage of his matchup on the wing.
Christian Wood ($6,700 FD / $5,900 DK)
Being center eligible on DK, Christian Wood will be in the majority of my lineups on both sites tomorrow. With Houston running only 8 active players due to COVID exposure, Wood will see a ton of run in the frontcourt and will be called upon to lead the charge as a secondary scorer to James Harden. While Josef Nurkic is no slouch on defense, the fact that Houston is so undermanned and Wood’s combination of scoring and rebounding in this one makes him an easy target; he is a lock for our cash games.
Centers
Joel Embiid ($9,800 FD / $10,200 DK)
After getting off to a slow start, Joel Embiid showed the NBA just how dominant he can be in the second half of their season debut versus Washington. Being able to score from behind the arc, dominate the post like no other, and be a force on the defensive end, Mitchell Robinson, someone who quickly gets into foul trouble, and Julius Randle will be in tough versus the one known as ‘The Process’. After WD favorite Domantas Sabonis just dropped a near trouble-double on this very same frontcourt, just imagine what Embiid will do tonight.
Andre Drummond ($8,400 FD / $9,200 DK)
A threat to drop 20/20 in on any given NBA slate, Andre Drummond returns home to face his former team in the Detroit Pistons. Opening day gem Mason Plumlee was a force for us and is solid on the defensive end, but Dre is a bully in the paint and will surely give him a hard time on the glass all night long.
Nikola Vucevic ($8,200 FD / $9,100 DK)
One of my favorite targets at the center position on today’s NBA slate, Vucevic will be virtually unowned with everyone paying up for James Harden and other pieces mentioned. Remaining the focal point of the Magic offense, Vuc has a glorious matchup versus Thomas Bryant who was just torched by Embiid in their season debut. Washington has been ranking in the bottom-3 of the NBA DVP versus the center position over the past few years, allowing over 55 FPPG to the position, and it surely won’t change this year.
Value Gems: Check the projection model here. Expect a lot of Houston Rockets.
I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.
You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost
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