Tag:

Ghost

NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 01/06

Christopher Day 4 years ago

written by Christopher Day

We’re back and ready to continue our run in the early stages of the NBA season with another edition of the Gems.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Point Guards

Steph Curry ($10,000 FD / $9,800 DK)

What can be said about the best shooter in the history of the NBA? He’s simply playing on another level right now, averaging 39.33 PPG in his last three games on 52.17% shooting and 42.5% from deep. His 34.5% usage rate shows just how important he is to this Warriors offense with the absence of Klay Thompson, in case that wasn’t obvious enough. With the Clippers potentially missing one of Kawhi Leonard or Paul George tonight, Steph is yet again in a spot to wreak havoc on an NBA slate.

Trae Young ($9,400 FD / $9,600 DK)

A smash spot for a breakout player of the year candidate, Trae Young has been both flashy and efficient in his third year in the NBA. An uptick in minutes due to an injured rotation is all we needed for Young to hit his ceiling, and that’s exactly what we’ve been seeing as of late: he’s dropped 23.5 PPG to go along with 12 assists per game in his last two, averaging 37 minutes along the way. Another great spot for the Hawks tonight as they look to push the pace versus the Hornets.

Ben Simmons ($8,700 FD / $8,800 DK)

I will continue going back to the duo of Simmons and Embiid until the NBA DFS community give them the respect they deserve; continuously coming in at low ownership, Simmons is in the definition of an ideal situation for his game tonight facing Russell Westbrook, who loves to push the pace and consequently, turn the ball over. He’ll have ample opportunity to secure rebounds versus a small Washington frontcourt and really run his offense in transition.

De’Aaron Fox ($7,800 FD / $8,200 DK)

Way. Too. Cheap. De’Aaron Fox is one my favorite players in the NBA, as if that wasn’t obvious already, but this is simply a smash spot for the former Kentucky guard. A player that compares to John Wall in his prime, Fox loves to push the pace and will be facing a Bulls backcourt duo of White/Lavine who are on the second night of a back-to-back and have been decimated by opposing point guards this season, including 50+ FP performances by studs like Westbrook and Young, but also, the one and only Jalen Brunson.

Also Consider:

Malcolm Brogdon ($8,200 FD / $8,000 DK)
Jrue Holiday ($7,200 FD / $6,700 DK)
Kyle Lowry ($7,500 FD / $7,800 DK)

Shooting Guards

Paul George ($9,000 FD / $8,900 DK)

After missing yesterday’s game, PG13 is expected to make his return to the lineup tonight with Kawhi Leonard potentially sitting out the second half of a back-to-back, as he has done for the past three years. With Kawhi off the floor, PG13 sees a notable bump in usage to 35.4% and averages 1.4 fantasy points per minute (FPPM).

Zach Lavine ($8,100 FD / $8,300 DK)

The high-flying slasher had no problem not only covering the +10.5 last night for his Bulls, but actually led them to an outright win. On the second half of a back-to-back, Lavine will be yet again counted on to shoulder the load versus a fast Sacramento team that has been vulnerable in to opposing guards, and Lavine will be the guy to take advantage with his 18.3 FGA per game this season.

Devin Booker ($7,600 FD / $7,900 DK)

Finally in a price range I can stomach, Devin Booker is an elite NBA GPP play for me tonight. Sporting a 29.6% usage rate, Booker is averaging a modest 21.1/4.1/4.4 across 35.4 MPG, but has hit 25, 22, and 25 points in his last three, respectively, on 55.32% shooting.

Collin Sexton ($7,100 FD / $7,200 DK)

While he did not live up to expectations on his birthday, Collin Sexton is right back to the same spot with an even thinner rotation for the Cavaliers tonight. A plethora of guards and wings are out, leaving Sexton, Osman, and Drummond to carry the load on offense versus the Magic; Sexton will be the guy to play the majority of heavy minutes, we saw with 39 in their game versus Orlando just a few days ago.

Also Consider:

James Harden ($11,200 FD / $11,000 DK)
Bradley Beal ($10,000 FD / $9,000 DK)
Fred VanVleet ($8,000 FD / $7,900 DK)
Derrick Rose ($6,000 FD / $5,800 DK)

Small Forwards

Jayson Tatum ($9,400 FD / $9,000 DK)

In a rematch of last season’s ECF, Tatum will see a ton of Adebayo and Butler tonight, but that does not scare me off him one bit. Sporting a 30.6% usage rate, Tatum averaged 26.5/9.8/6.3 in their 6-game playoff series loss to Miami last season, and he will be primed for another 33+ minutes in a game with a 2.5 spread in one of the closest games on the NBA slate.

Brandon Ingram ($8,800 FD / $8,400 DK)

I much prefer Ingram to Zion today because of the lack of options the Thunder have to counter him on the wing. The key here is that BI and Zion have been sharing the court a ton, leaving Zion as the one drawing most of the defensive coverage down low; with Ingram picking up where he left off last season en route to 25 PPG already, his 30.5% usage rate has my interest peaked, especially coming off back-to-back 31 point games.

Jerami Grant ($7,300 FD / $6,900 DK)

A player that was once known for simply his defensive ability on the wing and strong rebounding in Denver, Jerami Grant has been thriving in an offensive role for the Pistons thus far. Having dropped at least 22 points in six straight games, including six of seven in the early stages of the NBA season, Grant has been a model of consistency with his 36.3 MPG and is shooting 44.3% from the field, including a whopping 18.7 FGA per game.

Also consider:

RJ Barrett ($6,500 FD / $7,000 DK)
Harrison Barnes ($6,100 FD / $6,100 DK)
De’Andre Hunter ($6,000 FD / $5,400 DK)
Otto Porter Jr. ($5,600 FD / $6,500 DK)
Cedi Osman ($5,200 FD / $5,500 DK)

Power Forwards

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,400 FD / $10,900 DK)

Despite the potential blowout scenario in Detroit on this NBA slate, Giannis cannot be stopped in this short span of games as of late: averaging 32.67 PPG on 59% shooting, Giannis has been playing more aggressively as of late, resulting in 31 FTA in his past three, including 27 FTA in his past two games, go to along with a whopping 61 FGA.

Julius Randle ($9,000 FD / $9,500 DK)

Sporting a 26% usage rate, Randle has been on a tear to begin the NBA season, averaging 22.1/11.4/7.4 across 38.4 MPG for his Knicks. His price is getting up there, but with the Knicks being a surprising 4-3 on the season, Randle is a big factor on a nightly basis.

Other Core Pieces

Domantas Sabonis ($8,800 FD / $9,200 DK)
Aaron Gordon ($6,400 FD / $6,400 DK)

Also Consider:

Christian Wood ($9,100 FD / $7,700 DK)
Kelly Olynyk ($5,000 FD / $4,400 DK)

Centers

Joel Embiid ($9,900 FD / $9,900 DK)

Despite a 27.2% usage rate this season, Embiid is yet again racking up the double-doubles for us on a nightly basis and is a prime target on each NBA slate he is priced under $10,000. More recently, it took him a mere 25 minutes to drop 14/11/4 and 50 FP against the Hornets and is in a glorious matchup versus a Washington frontcourt that has allowed nearly 60 FPPG to opposing centers.

Nikola Vucevic ($8,700 FD / $8,700 DK)

The disrespect on his price continues, and I will take advantage. Rocking a 24.7% usage rate thus far, Vuc is the key to the Magic’s success every night they take the floor, and tonight will be no different; with the combination of Andre Drummond and JaVale McGee running the paint for the Cavs, Vuc will be in for a heavy workload all night long.

Clint Capela ($6,500 FD / $6,700 DK)

Finding his groove running the pick ‘n roll with Trae Young, Clint Capela is loving his new role in Atlanta. Capela has been getting back into shape and has played 30, 31, and 31 minutes in his past three games, respectively, averaging 13.33 PPG and 13 rebounds along that stretch and will be counted on again in a matchup versus Bismack Biyombo and the Charlotte Hornets, making him a premier target in the mid-range of tonight’s NBA slate.

Others to Consider:

Deandre Ayton ($7,200 FD / $7,300 DK)
Mason Plumlee ($6,300 FD / $5,500 DK)
Richaun Holmes ($6,300 FD / $5,900 DK)
Mitchell Robinson ($5,500 FD / $5,600 DK)

Value Gems: Check the projection model here.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

4 years ago 0 comments

NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 01/05

Christopher Day 4 years ago

written by Christopher Day

With yesterday’s 10-game slate leading to another massive day for the Win Daily crew, including a 100K win, we’re onto today’s 5-game NBA slate with plenty of good plays on tap. We already have news that Kevin Durant will be out for the Nets in this one, and could potentially miss the entire week, so let’s see how that affects our approach.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Point Guards

Kyrie Irving ($9,700 FD / $9,300 DK)

Sporting a usage rate just above 35% with Durant and Dinwiddie off the floor, our NBA lineups begin with the one and only Kyrie Irving tonight. Not only is he a core play on both sites, but I will have nearly, if not 100% exposure in 150 lineups tonight – I am all in on the best ball handler in the league in this matchup versus Mike Conley and Donovan Mitchell.

Damian Lillard ($9,200 FD / $9,800 DK)

The “other” stud PG on tonight’s NBA slate, Dame is still wildly underpriced on FD while being too expensive on DK considering you can get the man listed above for $500 less – but this will keep his ownership down and that is exactly what we need to win a tournament. Sporting a 30.3% usage rate in their first six games, Dame is averaging a cool 26.3/4.3/6.2 and has a beautiful matchup against two of the league’s worst defenders in Coby White and Zach Lavine in a game with the highest over/under on the NBA slate at 232.5.

Jamal Murray ($7,900 FD / $7,600 DK)

After a ridiculous run to the Western Conference semi-finals, Jamal Murray got off to a slow start in the new NBA season. However, with Joker dealing with foul trouble in the last two, it’s been Murray who has carried the Nuggets with 33.5 PPG across 38.5 MPG. If you’re not playing Joker, load up on an underpriced Murray, who has shot 59.5% from the field and 46.67% from deep in his past two games.

Also Consider:

Dejounte Murray ($7,000 FD / $6,800 DK)

Shooting Guards

Paul George ($8,800 FD / $8,800 DK)

An early candidate for MVP of the NBA, Paul George is silencing the doubters that had him pegged for the exit door following the Clippers’ playoff letdown. Sporting a 31.5% usage rate on a team that has Kawhi Leonard is no joke, especially when it leads to a 25.1/5.7/5.1 scoring line. It’s early in the season, but PG13 has looked unbelievable and will be able to continue that against a rebuilding Spurs squad tonight.

Zach Lavine ($8,100 FD / $8,000 DK)

If the Bulls want to win any game on their schedule, Zach Lavine needs to be the one leading the charge. As +9.5 underdogs tonight, this is the spot we want to target the high-flying slasher since his ownership will be much lower than in tight games on this Bulls schedule, and his 31.5% usage rate and 24.6 PPG shows just how crucial he is to this Bulls team. With the Bulls consistently ranking in the Top 5 in pace ranking, you saw what Steph Curry did to these very same Trail Blazers, and while Lavine does not have the same shooting ability as Steph, he can score in bunches tonight.

Caris LeVert ($6,100 FD / $6,600 DK)

Leading the Nets in the NBA bubble last season, LeVert is one of those players that is in contention for Sixth Man of the Year in the early stages of this season. Now, with Durant and Dinwiddie both sidelined, LeVert will share the spotlight with fellow backcourt partner Kyrie Irving in a chance to really shine; having a 32.7% usage rate in the bubble was an indication of the kind of workload LeVert is in for tonight, and at a mere 6k on both sites, he’s simply way too cheap to avoid in the mid-range.

Also Consider:

CJ McCollum ($8,900 FD / $8,400 DK)

Small Forwards

Kawhi Leonard ($10,100 FD / $9,100 DK)

Want your narrative of the night? Look no further than Kawhi facing his former franchise at Staples Center tonight. With the lack of rebounding the Clippers have been experiencing, Kawhi has really picked up the slack on the defensive end and will face one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the NBA tonight in the Spurs. His lack of efficiency from the field has been concerning, only shooting 40.2% from the field, but this matchup is too good to pass up on for the Klaw.

Joe Harris ($4,600 FD / $5,600 DK)

If you haven’t noticed the trend thus far with Kyrie Irving and Caris LeVert, these Nets are all underpriced with the absence of Kevin Durant from the lineup. Enter Joe Harris, the sharpshooting wing who will have many more opportunities to launch his shot with Durant out of the lineup. With only 10.1 field goal attempts per game, Harris will see an uptick closer to the 12.8 he was averaging in the bubble, where he shot a ridiculous 59.8% from the field and 55.1% from deep.

Also consider:

LeBron James ($10,200 FD / $10,100 DK)
Keldon Johnson ($6,500 FD / $6,500 DK)

Power Forwards

Anthony Davis ($10,000 FD / $9,500 DK)

His 27% usage rate is quite concerning for a player of his magnitude, but these Lakers are the definition of Championship or bust. Whether he hits his ceiling in a game like this can be dependent on a ton of factors, such as a potential blowout spot or simply not being challenged to have to go bonkers, but it certainly won’t be because of a matchup versus the Memphis frontcourt that’s allowing over 56 FPPG to opposing bigs. The position is quite scarce on FD where you need to roster two PF, so be careful when fading him tonight.

Massive drop in talent after AD; consider the following and look for updates in Discord:

Bojan Bogdanovic ($5,300 FD / $6,100 DK)
Brandon Clarke ($5,100 FD / $5,300 DK)
Robert Covington ($5,000 FD / $5,100 DK)

Centers

Nikola Jokic ($10,500 FD / $10,800 DK)

Struggling with foul trouble in his past few games combined with the fact that he is priced way up, few people will play the Joker tonight, and I plan on getting exposure to one of, if not both he and Jamal Murray in a ton of lineups. The best passing big man in the NBA, Joker is averaging a triple-double in 22.3/11.2/12.8 thus far and won’t stop any time soon.

Rudy Gobert ($8,200 FD / $7,700 DK)

My preferred option than the Utah Jazz guards, one of the best defenders in the NBA has been getting it done on the offensive end as well this season to the tune of 14.5 PPG to go along with 13.7 RPG. A model of consistency on both ends of the court, Gobert will need to see a ton of minutes to stop the 1-2 punch of Deandre Jordan and Jarrett Allen with KD ruled out.

Others to Consider:

Jarrett Allen ($5,800 FD / $5,800 DK)
Montrezl Harrell ($5,300 FD / $6,100 DK)
Enes Kanter ($5,200 FD / $5,400 DK)
Serge Ibaka ($4,500 FD / $5,600 DK)

Value Gems: Check the projection model here.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

4 years ago 0 comments

NBA Premium

NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 01/04

Christopher Day 4 years ago

written by Christopher Day

Welcome back to another week of Ghost’s Gems – we’re looking to continue our run in the early stages of the NBA season by narrowing down our player pool and correlate our lineups successfully.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Point Guards

Stephen Curry ($9,500 FD / $9,300 DK)

Coming off a career-high 62 points yesterday versus Portland, you know the NBA DFS community will flock to Steph Curry in hopes of getting a repeat performance. While we cannot expect him to replicate his output from less than 24 hours ago, Curry is yet again going to be asked to shoulder the load, as he will be every night. Sporting a 35.2% usage rate six games into the season, Curry is averaging a whopping 32.3 PPG to go along with 4.7 rebounds and 6.2 assists in 33.5 minutes per game. In a matchup versus a fast Sacramento team, Curry will have ample opportunity for steals and to run the transition game, which is where he excelled yesterday and well, you saw how that turned out.

Trae Young ($9,400 FD / $9,800 DK)

Despite him being slightly overpriced in this one on DK, Trae Young is one of few players in the NBA that can give us 60+ fantasy points on any given night. Running point for a rejuvenated Atlanta Hawks team, Young has a 33.5% usage rate this season and has been getting to the free throw line at an absurd rate, averaging 11.7 free throw attempts per game, good for second in the NBA behind only James Harden at 12/game. He should have no issue driving to the hoop in this matchup versus Elfrid Payton, and the pick ‘n roll with Capela will be in full effect with Mitch Robinson on the other side for the Knicks.

Ben Simmons ($8,700 FD / $9,100 DK)

The beauty of playing NBA GPPs is the fact that some players go criminally underowned no matter who they are facing; Ben Simmons is one of those guys every night. With the majority of ownership drawing to Joel Embiid, Simmons is often an afterthought despite running point for the 76ers. He is currently averaging 13.5/9.8/7.2 despite a lowly 20.5% usage rate and gives us a triple-double type of stat line almost every night. With small guards in Terry Rozier and LaMelo Ball lining up on the Aussie, Simmons can easily replicate his 15/12/11 triple-double from the other night against these same Hornets.

De’Aaron Fox ($8,000 FD / $8,200 DK)

With rookie Tyrese Haliburton already ruled out for tonight’s tilt versus Golden State, the Kings find themselves quite thin in the back court and will be forced to rely on De’Aaron Fox even more so than they already do. More so a play on FD tonight, it’s Fox’s 1.67 steals per game that may take him over the top tonight in a game where he must be able to lead the offense in both scoring in assists to keep up with Steph Curry.

Malcolm Brogdon ($7,800 FD / $7,900 DK)

A model of consistency on an NBA court, the former Rookie of the Year and second round pick has really thrived in Indiana since coming over from Milwaukee. Despite a modest 23.4% usage rate this season, Brogdon has picked up the offensive slack for the Pacers, along with another teammate mentioned further down, since the loss of TJ Warren on the wing, He hasn’t scored less than 17 points in a game this season and has a great matchup versus the Pelicans tonight in their new SVG, slower-paced offense.

Others to consider

John Wall ($8,500 FD / $7,600 DK)
LaMelo Ball ($6,400 FD / $5,600 DK)

Shooting Guards

James Harden ($11,400 FD / $11,100 DK)

Keep an eye on the Rockets’ lead man as he is currently battling an ankle injury, but with this game being nationally televised, I don’t foresee James Harden missing two games in a row. Despite the additions of John Wall and Christian Wood, amongst others, Harden is still rocking a 35.9% usage rate, en route to a ridiculous 37 PPG to go along with 5.3 rebounds and 11 assists. He gets to the free throw line at the highest rate in the NBA at 12 times per game and will be a serious problem for the Mavericks on defense tonight without interior defender Kristaps Porzingis in the lineup.

Collin Sexton ($7,100 FD / $7,200 DK)

A third-year pro, it’s tough sometimes for people to remember that Collin Sexton is still only 22 years old – oh wait, it’s also his birthday today – narrative alert! Considering he needs to score in bunches in order to get us there in NBA GPPs, he is an extremely risky pick on a nightly basis – but all he’s being doing is exactly that: scoring. Averaging 26 PPG across 37.5 minutes for the young Cavaliers, Sexton’s 25.2% usage rate is enough for him to get there tonight versus the Magic’s backcourt.

Buddy Hield ($5,700 FD / $6,800 DK)

Similarly to De’Aaron Fox, Buddy Hield will be counted on tremendously tonight versus the Warriors, as the Kings will be without rookie Tyrese Haliburton off the bench. Hield is one of the NBA’s premier 3-point shooters and is overpriced on DK, but that will keep his ownership down in GPPs. Playing 36.7 minutes per game, Hield is only shooting 37.7% from behind the arc, but he is due to get back on track closer to his career average of 41%.

Eric Bledsoe ($5,100 FD / $6,300 DK)

Oh man, here we go again. I can already tell Eric Bledsoe will be my kryptonite this NBA season as he remains criminally underpriced on FD. On DK, it’s much easier to get away from him, but it’s hard to ignore a 5k price tag on someone playing 30 MPG and is counted on this much in the Pelicans offense. The 18.5% usage rate is low, but with Indiana’s wings and Sabonis lining up on Zion and Ingram, look for Bledsoe to be more involved tonight.

Small Forwards

Jaylen Brown ($8,500 FD / $8,300 DK)

As much as we talk about Jayson Tatum blossoming into one of the league’s youngest stars, it’s time JB starts to get attention as well. With the Celtics being without Kemba Walker to begin the NBA season, JB has been on a tear with a 29.5% usage rate and averaging 28 PPG, 4.6 rebounds, 3.1 assists, and 1.7 steals. Possibly without Jeff Teague tonight as well, Brown and Tatum may never leave the court versus the Raptors tonight.

Tobias Harris ($8,000 FD / $7,600 DK)

The additions of Seth Curry and Danny Green have helped the entire 76ers Big 3, including Tobias Harris. Hopefully PJ Washington plays in this game for Charlotte, because he is an awful wing defender that Harris can take advantage of, but nonetheless, his 1.5 steals and 1.5 blocks per game give him a relatively safe floor in addition to his offensive upside.

Jerami Grant ($7,300 FD / $6,900 DK)

Never did I think I’d be paying 7k for Jerami Grant, but here we are. The Pistons offseason addition is finally getting out of his defensive role that he was stuck with in Denver and is now flourishing on the other side of the ball, averaging 22.8 PPG to go along with his typical defensive ability with 1.2 steals and 1.1 blocks. The Pistons may be without Josh Jackson, and Grant will be relied upon heavily in this one.

Others to Consider:

Brandon Ingram ($8,400 FD / $8,400 DK)
Larry Nance Jr. ($7,200 FD / $7,100 DK)
Harrison Barnes ($6,100 FD / $5,600 DK)
De’Andre Hunter ($5,400 FD / $5,200 DK)

Power Forwards

Domantas Sabonis ($9,200 FD / $9,500 DK)

Death, taxes, exposure to the most underrated PF in the NBA on a nightly basis. This is one of those players that does not need a high usage rate to get it done; Sabonis only has a 22.5% usage rate but the Pacers love to share the rock between everyone. The difference? Efficiency. Without TJ Warren in the lineup, Sabonis has stepped up in a big way and is now averaging 20.8 PPG to go along with 11.3 rebounds and 6.7 assists, in addition to shooting 56.8% from the field and 57.1% from deep.

Christian Wood ($9,100 FD / $7,400 DK)

Gone are the days of 7k Christian Wood on FD, but man is he criminally underpriced on DK. An extremely underrated offseason acquisition for the small-ball Rockets, Wood’s ability to keep up with Harden and Wall in transition has been crucial to his success; he is averaging 23.8/10.8 across 36.5 MPG. With no Porzingis for the Mavericks again, Wood will be able to continue his dominance in the post.

Jayson Tatum ($9,100 FD / $8,600 DK)

He is too cheap on DK. Too. Cheap. Jayson Tatum is one of the most promising young stars in the NBA and gets a juicy matchup – one that I used to avoid but is now more than targetable. The Raptors have been a mess on defense with the losses of Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol in the offseason and Tatum will posturize them in the paint tonight.

Julius Randle ($8,100 FD / $9,000 DK)

Ghost loves Julius Randle. Julius Randle is facing John Collins. John Collins fouls at absurd rates. Ghost loves picking on John Collins defense. See where this is going? Core play for me on FD, Randle is on another planet in the early stages of this NBA season, averaging 21.2/10.5/7.2 in 37.7 minutes per game.

Others to Consider:

Zion Williamson ($7,500 FD / $7,900 DK)
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,400 FD / $10,800 DK)
Marvin Bagley ($4,800 FD / $5,500 DK)

Centers

Joel Embiid ($9,900 FD / $9,900 DK)

Any time The Process is under 10k, I’m intrigued. Back to his standard averages of 25.8/12.6 this season, Embiid should be able to dominate both in the post versus Bismack Biyombo and behind the arc, where Biyombo does not venture since he can easily get beat on a drive to the basket. Shooting an efficient 53.9% from the floor and 40% from deep, Embiid is one of my favorite targets on this NBA slate.

Andre Drummond ($9,500 FD / $9,200 DK)

Sporting a 31% usage rate with KLove off the floor, Drummond is in a smash spot with fellow teammate Collin Sexton in this one. Yes, Vucevic is a stud, but that’s exactly why I love Drummond tonight: he’s going to be on the court a ton to match up on him. Sporting a ridiculous 1.61 FPPM, if Drummond sees the court for 30+, he can be in for a slate-breaking performance.

Nikola Vucevic ($8,300 FD / $8,800 DK)

Criminally underpriced considering he is the core of the Orlando Magic. Facing Andre Drummond tonight will be a daunting task, but Vuc will be up for it and will be on the court for every minute that Drummond is – and that’s a lot. Averaging 21.5/11.5/3.3 across 31 MPG, the scary addition to Vuc’s arsenal is his new 3-point shot: he is averaging nearly three 3-pointers per game and is shooting 48.5% from deep.

Clint Capela ($6,500 FD / $6,100 DK)

After limited minutes in his first four appearances for the Hawks, Capela is back in full action and to his old ways of racking up double-doubles. Averaging 14/13.5/3 across 30.5 minutes in his last two, Capela is the pick ‘n roll man the Hawks needed for Trae Young and will be required to be on the floor a ton tonight versus Mitch Robinson.

Others to Consider:

Richaun Holmes ($6,300 FD / $5,600 DK)
Mason Plumlee ($6,200 FD / $5,800 DK)
Mitchell Robinson ($5,500 FD / $5,700 DK)
Chris Boucher ($6,200 FD / $5,100 DK)

Value Gems: Check the projection model here.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL Premium

NFL DFS: Ghost’s Week 17 Gems

Christopher Day 4 years ago

written by Christopher Day

Before reading this NFL GPP article, I highly suggest reading Adam’s Game by Game Breakdown to get ahead of the curve. The plays listed here will be the ones that we aim to hit on for ceiling games – the ones that can win us an NFL DFS GPP tournament. As usual, players identified as cash plays in the GxG are certainly viable, but we’ll be focusing on players that will be both low-owned and that offer a higher ceiling than a high-owned player in the same salary range at their respective position. Chalk players will be omitted unless I love them for GPP as well, but this does not mean they are not viable. Week 17 is a different beast, so it is crucial to not only identify which games we want to target, but also to make sure we are playing as many guys that have something to play for.

While this will not be a strategy article for NFL DFS as Stix’s NFL DFS Bible is, it’s important to note the process we follow for GPPs nonetheless without getting into immense detail; before getting into individual plays, it’s crucial to identify which games we want to target for full game stacks, which games we need a piece of – potentially in every lineup – and which games we can eliminate from the slate altogether. As such, my top stacks are as followed:

1) Tennessee Titans

Death, taxes, and Tennessee stacks after Thanksgiving. You may have heard me say this since the month of November, but it’s something I truly live by in NFL DFS and certainly in my GPP lineups. Coming in with the highest implied team total on the slate at 32.0, the Titans have a plethora of options in multiple price ranges to take our lineups to the top of the leaderboards.

2) Green Bay Packers

27.5 implied team total for A-Aron & Co. and they need this win to secure the #1 seed and consequently, their first-round bye in the NFC.

3) Indianapolis Colts

Massive 31.5 implied team total for Noodle SZN and the Colts offense here versus a terrible Jaguars defense; they need this win to make the playoffs and have a ton on the line.

4) Baltimore Ravens

A 28.5 implied team total for the reigning NFL MVP – win and they’re in? Yeah, I’ll have a ton of Ravens exposure.

5) Seattle Seahawks

They hold their fate in their own hands and should the Packers lose, Seattle can get the #1 seed in the NFC with a win behind their 26.25 implied team total.

NFL GPP DFS: Week 17 Quarterbacks

1) Ryan Tannehill ($7,000 DK / $8,200 FD)

He’s leading the charge of our top stack, so obviously he’s going to be a top option at the QB position. You need exposure to this Titans offense, and if it’s not your main stack, you can run Tannehill’s weapons if the price scares you off him.

2) Aaron Rodgers ($7,400 DK / 8,500 FD)

A-Aron chasing a #1 seed in the NFC and looking to close out an MVP season in style; the Packers signal caller is in a prime spot versus a Bears defense that will be without the majority of their secondary.

3) Lamar Jackson ($8,000 DK / $9,000 FD)

He’s rushing again and that is a scary sight for DFS players that fade the reigning NFL MVP. Does he have to go nuclear for them to win this matchup? No, absolutely not. But the Ravens need to win to get in the playoffs regardless, and Lamar has the ability to score 20+ points on the ground alone.

Also Consider:

Deshaun Watson ($7,700 DK / $8,700 FD)
Baker Mayfield ($5,500 DK / $7,000 FD)
Russell Wilson ($7,300 DK / $7,500 FD)
Kirk Cousins ($6,300 DK / $7,700 FD)

NFL GPP DFS: Week 17 Running Backs

1) Derrick Henry ($9,400 DK / $10,200 FD)

He’s chasing a ton of milestones, facing a Houston “defense” – or lack thereof – and they have the highest team total on the slate. I shouldn’t have to tell you why to play him today.

2) Jonathan Taylor ($7,400 DK / $8,400 FD)

Any Frank Reich backfield is scary, but JT is in a smash spot versus a Jacksonville who have ranked 30th or worse every week versus the run DVOA. Averaging 18 carries per game in the past three weeks, Taylor looks to have finally earned a stranglehold on the majority of the Colts backfield touches.

3) Nick Chubb ($7,600 DK / $8,100 FD)

Should the Steelers be playing their entire defensive unit, this spot would be worthy of a fade – but they are not. Given the fact that the yellow and gold have already lost edge rusher Bud Dupree to a season-ending injury, they are playing it safe by sitting out the majority of their starters, and this bodes well for Chubb to carry the ball a ton in a must-win situation.

Others to Consider:

All the punt RBs – above is the cream of the crop in terms of pay up options

NFL GPP DFS: Week 17 Wide Receivers

1) Davante Adams ($9,200 DK / $9,300 FD)

It’s the best WR in the league, in a must-win for the #1 seed for the NFC, playing against third-string cornerbacks. Need I say more?

2) DK Metcalf ($7,300 DK / $7,600 FD)

Such a smash spot for the athletic sophomore yet he’s coming in under 10% owned on both sites. With both Richard Sherman and K’Wuan Williams out for the 49ers, Metcalf will torch whoever seems him the most between Emmanuel Moseley and Ahkello Witherspoon, who he burned for 12-161-2 on 15 targets back in Week 8.

3) AJ Brown ($7,200 DK / $8,400 FD)

The #1 target for one of our top quarterback targets needs to obviously be considered here. Coming in with a 60-922-10 stat line on 95 targets, AJB has 15.4 yards per reception, 9.7 yards per target, and a matchup versus Vernon Hargreaves. Giddy up!

4) Deandre Hopkins ($7,900 DK / $8,200 FD)

With everyone flocking to Davante Adams, Hopkins in another elite receiver that is coming under 10% owned on this slate – under 5% to be exact. With Christian Kirk out and Hopkins’ 29% target share, good for third-highest in the NFL, Nuk and Kyler will get it done versus Jalen Ramsey to secure a playoff berth.

Punt: Richie James ($3,100 DK / $4,600 FD)

NFL GPP DFS: Week 17 Tight Ends

1) George Kittle ($6,000 DK / $6,800 FD)

2) Mark Andrews ($5,800 DK / $7,200 FD)

3) TJ Hockenson ($4,600 DK / $5,800 FD)

4) Noah Fant ($4,400 DK / $5,700 FD)

Others to Consider:

Irv Smith Jr. ($3,900 DK / $5,600 FD)
Jonnu Smith ($3,800 DK / $5,300 FD)

NFL GPP DFS: Week 17 DSTs

I typically try to narrow this down to a handful of options but can offer one piece of advice regarding DSTs: do not get cute with it by playing a DST versus the Chiefs simply because they’re minimum price (with the exception of this week since nobody is playing for them). Do not change a skill-position player, and certainly not a component of your NFL GPP stack just to fit in a DST. Slot in a team that you are comfortable with and remember, a DST selection is like a car; as you drive it off the lot, it begins to lose value; the moment the game begins, your DST is at risk of losing points. Play it smart, but don’t overthink it either.

Baltimore Ravens ($4,200 DK / $4,900 FD)
Cleveland Browns ($2,500 DK / $4,100 FD)
Carolina Panthers ($2,600 DK / $3,300 FD)

Others to consider

NY Jets ($2,300 DK / $3,500 FD)
LA Chargers ($2,800 DK / $3,500 FD)

Make sure to check out @StixPicks’s AETY projection model here and our cheat sheet for both DraftKings and FanDuel as well. You can find me on the livestream tomorrow morning at 11am EST and in Discord, as well as on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

4 years ago 0 comments

NBA Premium

NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 01/01

Christopher Day 4 years ago

written by Christopher Day

Happy New Year to all! The Win Daily team would like to wish you nothing but the best for 2021 and thanks you for your continuous support! There is no better way to kick off the new year than with a 10-game NBA slate.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Point Guards

Stephen Curry ($9,900 FD / $9,600 DK)

The beauty of the condensed NBA schedule this season is the amount of star power we get to see on a nightly basis. Beginning at the one and only point guard position is the 2-time MVP and 3-time NBA Champion, Steph Curry. Facing off against someone he loves to go up against in Dame Lillard, Curry is set to post another impressive stat line having come off back-to-back wins for his Warriors. With the potential return of Draymond Green to the lineup, Curry is set to improve on his 33.5/3.5/6 scoring line in the past two games.

Trae Young ($9,700 FD / $10,100 DK)

When we discuss narrowing down the player pool on any given NBA slate, it begins with which games to target. Just a few days ago, we strongly recommended to have the ATL/BKN game at the top of your list and it did not disappoint – all three of Trae Young, Kyrie Irving, and Kevin Durant were the studs we wanted on that slate and the game exploded for a whopping 286 points, with the three aforementioned studs combining for 88 points, 19 rebounds and 25 assists. WE saw what this game was already once before, and if you missed out for some reason, don’t make the same mistake twice. Trae is the engine to the Hawks offense as seen through his 34.6% usage rate and 33/4.5/8.3 scoring line; he’s been playing tremendously and has had improved success getting to the free throw line as well, averaging a whopping 15.5 FTA per game.

Kyrie Irving ($9,300 FD / $9,300 DK)

Was Kyrie a letdown in the very same game we just talked up? I mean, if you consider 45 DK points at a $8,900 price tag a letdown, then that just goes to show how high his expectations are on any given NBA slate. Kyrie still managed to hit value in a game that saw him start shoot 3/18 from the field through three quarters. He finished the night on a 7/9 run, including the dagger on the last possession, and is poised to be in for another great performance here tonight.

Damian Lillard ($9,300 FD / $9,800 DK)

If you are not stacking the ATL/BKN game, then the GS/POR game needs to be high on your list – entre the Damian Lillard low-owned stack with Steph Curry at the point guard position. Yes, CJ McCollum has a higher usage rate than Dame, who has been ice cold from behind the arc this season shooting only 28.9% from deep, but he is still averaging 23 PPG on 40% shooting; you’ll want exposure because a breakout game is coming any time now.

Others to consider

Dejounte Murray ($7,400 FD / $6,900 DK)
Jrue Holiday ($6,600 FD / $6,600 DK)
Goran Dragic ($6,100 FD / $6,000 DK)

Shooting Guards

Bradley Beal ($9,500 FD / $9,400 DK)

With Russell Westbrook likely sitting out the second half of Washington’s back-to-back, Bradley Beal will see both an uptick in usage and offensive opportunity. Facing an equally as bad defense in Minnesota as a Bulls team that allowed him to drop 28/4/3 on 8/19 shooting in 34 minutes, yesterday’s game total is indicative of what to expect tonight albeit a different, yet awfully similar opponent: a ton of points, no defense, and a ton of exposure in our NBA lineups.

Jimmy Butler ($8,100 FD / $7,800 DK)

Listed probable for this one, the Miami Heat are likely going to get the heart and soul of their team back in the lineup tonight for their tilt versus Dallas. While he likely will not be a key component for my NBA lineups, Butler is still too cheap for someone that has his kind of upside. I’ll have very few shares on DK, but on FD, where the SG position is questionable at best, I’ll be overweight since we need to roster two.

CJ McCollum ($8,000 FD / $8,400 DK)

If you’re not playing Damian Lillard, you need to take a strong look at CJ McCollum, whether you’re playing Steph Curry or not. Averaging a quiet 28/3.5/6.3 on 44.3% shooting, McCollum has shouldered a heavier load on offense than he is typically accustomed to considering Dame’s struggles. Luckily for him, he’s also shooting 47.8% from deep and his 29.7% usage rate makes him a worthy candidate for tonight’s NBA GPPs.

Zach Lavine ($7,900 FD / $7,600 DK)

Not only is Lavine too cheap in this matchup versus the Bucks, but the Bulls will also be without Lauri Markkanen, Chandler Hutchinson, Ryan Arcidiacono, and Tomas Satoranksy tonight. Is this game likely to be a blowout? Yes – but we don’t build NBA lineups based upon that and need to target the right players in the right game environment. Given that the Bulls will be bare in their rotation, Lavine will see enough minutes to take advantage of his opportunities on the offensive end of the ball.

DK Bonus Play: Donovan Mitchell ($6,800)

Others to Consider

D’Angelo Russell ($7,500 FD / $7,500 DK)
Dennis Schroder ($6,200 FD / $6,700 DK)
Derrick Rose ($5,700 FD / $5,900 DK)

Small Forwards

Kevin Durant ($9,400 FD / $9,100 DK)

The disrespect for this man on both sites continues and we’re going to take advantage. Here is what I wrote for KD on John Collins before he dropped 33/11/8 on 50% shooting:

“The SF position is bare with talent, but deep enough to consider fading him on FD, but I won’t be. The upside is massive in a spot versus the Hawks that play at one of the fastest paces in the league and having John Collins on KD, someone who fouls anybody that moves, is no bueno for the Hawks tonight. Because of his foul trouble, where he is averaging 4.3 per game, Collins has only played 24 minutes per game – 24. Now, give me De’Andre Hunter and Bogdan/Gallinari/Reddish on KD? Please lock in the man who is shooting 53.2% from the field, 69.2% from 3, has a true shooting percentage of 56.5% and is averaging over 8 free throws per game.”

Bogdan Bogdanovic ($5,400 FD / $5,400 DK)

Bog has been proving to have been a key addition in the offseason for the Hawks and provides them with quite the scoring punch off the bench. Danillo Gallinari has already been ruled out for this contest and others are questionable, so the Hawks can be thin enough for Bog to get 30+ minutes; he’s averaging 15.3/6.3/2.5 off the bench thus far and sees favorable matchups on the offensive end of the ball all night long.

Others to Consider:

Tyler Herro ($5,300 FD / $6,500 DK)
Josh Jackson ($4,800 FD / $5,200 DK)
Cam Reddish ($4,600 FD / $4,700 DK)
Otto Porter ($4,400 FD / $5,600 DK)

Power Forwards

This is a terrible spot for payups on this NBA slate outside of perhaps Jayson Tatum – while Giannis is in a premiere spot, the -15 spread on the Bucks and thin rotation for the Bulls make me come off his salary on both sites. While we are not basing lineup decisions based on blowouts, I think there are studs that are $1000 or even cheaper than him that have the potential to outscore him on raw points alone on this NBA slate.

Potential Value Plays – check the projection model, but some early ideas:

Naz Reid ($4,700 FD / $5,200 DK)
Thaddeus Young ($3,700 FD / $3,500 DK)

Centers

Nikola Jokic ($10,200 FD / $10,600 DK)

Simply put, I am going to try to get all the Jokic that I can tonight, especially on FD where there are no dual-eligible players to slot in at the center position as there are on DK. Make it three triple-doubles now for Joker in 4 games, with the fourth falling just one rebound short versus the Clippers on Christmas Day. The Nuggets will be without Michael Porter Jr. in this one and Jamal Murray remains questionable, giving Jokic all the usage he can handle on the offensive end versus Deandre Ayton defense. Sign me up.

Others to Consider:

Jonas Valanciunas ($7,700 FD / $8,300 DK)
Mason Plumlee ($6,200 FD / $5,700 DK)
Jarrett Allen ($5,600 FD / $5,800 DK)

Potential punts:

James Wiseman ($5,400 FD / $5,300 DK)
Bismack Biyombo ($5,000 FD / $4,900 DK)

Value Gems: Check the projection model here.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

4 years ago 0 comments

NBA

NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 12/31

Christopher Day 4 years ago

written by Christopher Day

Happy New Year’s Eve to all! Of all the things you can possibly be doing at this moment, I appreciate you checking in to read our NBA content and the continuous support!

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Point Guards

De’Aaron Fox ($7,900 FD / $7,800 DK)

If you’ve kept up with the preseason NBA content, you’d know just how high I am on the kid playing in the small market of Sacramento. De’Aaron Fox plays at an unbelievable pace – seriously, he’s just so fast – and now, the Kings offense is as well. Enter a matchup versus Houston, who also plays at a Top-5 pace in the NBA, Fox will be able to thrive in this type of game environment and build on his season average of 20.3/2.8/6.8. Core Play.

Others to Consider:

Mike Conley ($6,300 FD / $6,700 DK)
Elfrid Payton ($5,200 FD / $5,900 DK)
Kyle Lowry ($8,000 FD / $7,700 DK)

Shooting Guards

James Harden ($11,500 FD / $11,000 DK)

Do I really need to tell you to get as much Harden in your NBA lineups as possible right now? No? Good. Yes, Wall, Cousins, Gordon, and co. are all back, but that won’t affect Harden at this price tag – while we continuously look for value plays to exceed their ceiling, when a stud puts up 60 FP for roughly 5x his price, you lock him in because he’s likely the highest scoring player on the slate. Huge pace-up spot for the Rockets here, who are already a Top-5 team in the statistic, in addition to have some of the worst defenders at the guard positions who love to turn the ball over in transition. Giddy up. Core Play.

Tyrese Haliburton ($4,900 FD / $4,900 DK)

Have you watched the NBA ROY preseason prediction show? If not, please do so – it’d mean a lot to me. If you did, then you know how high I am on Haliburton this year and for the outlook of his career, and it starts right here tonight. I’ll dive into the details on the stream at 1pm, so make sure to tune in.

Others to Consider:

Devin Booker ($7,500 FD / $8,600 DK)
Eric Bledsoe ($4,800 FD / $5,600 DK)
Jordan Clarkson ($4,800 FD / $4,800 DK)

Small Forwards

Brandon Ingram ($9,400 FD / $8,000 DK)

Sporting nearly a 30% usage rate thus far this season, BI picked up right where he left off after winning Most Improved Player last NBA season. This young Pelicans team still has time to grow – and they’ll need it – but Ingram is quietly flourishing on the offensive end to form quite the 1-2 punch with Zion; Ingram is averaging 23.3/7/6.5 across 34.5 MPG and is a cog for this Pelicans offense in a great game environment.

OG Anunoby ($6,500 FD / $5,800 DK)

Never thought we’d get here on an NBA slate, but it’s the nature of the beast. OG is thriving for the Raptors and is channeling his inner Siakam for MIP early on; the usage rate is not pretty at a mere 13.3% and he’s the clear #4 option behind Lowry, Siakam, and FVV, but with 3.3 steals and 1.3 blocks per game, Anunoby is a legit DFS option tonight, especially on FD where defensive statistics are worth more than on DK at a thin SF position.

Others to Consider:

Mikal Bridges ($5,800 FD)
Cameron Johnson ($4,400 FD)

Power Forwards

Zion Williamson ($8,300 FD / $7,900 DK)

Both he and BI will be able to shoulder the load versus a depleted OKC roster with 0 difficulty. Having shipped Steven Adams over to New Orleans in the offseason, OKC has no paint presence to be able the sophomore who is already averaging 21.3/9.3 on a 28.3% usage rate.

Julius Randle ($8,000 FD / $8,800 DK)

Don’t expect another 30-point triple-double, but Julius Randle is still unpriced over on FD while being a tad expensive for my liking on DK. With RJ Barrett and Elfrid Payton having to deal with the backcourt duo of Lowry and FVV on defense, Randle is the one to keep an eye on, who can lose Siakam on defensive switches. Playing just under 38 minutes per game, Randle is off to a tear in the early stages of the NBA season, averaging 24.8/10.5/7.5 on 55.6% shooting.

Others to Consider:

Pascal Siakam ($7,400 FD / $8,300 DK)
Bojan Bogdanovic ($4,900 FD / $5,800 DK)

Centers

Rudy Gobert ($7,700 FD / $7,500 DK)

Safest option on this NBA slate where the options are greasy to say the least; Rudy will always have a low usage rate on offensive given the guard tandem of Conley/Mitchell/Clarkson but that has not stopped him from putting up 16.7 PPG. Moreover, he’s his usual dominant self on the glass, averaging a whopping 14.3 RPG and is one of the best defensive players in the league. Facing a foul prone Ayton, Gobert will have his way in the paint tonight.

Others to Consider:

Al Horford ($5,400 FD / $6,100 DK)
Mitchell Robinson ($5,200 FD / $5,600 DK)

Value Gems: Check the projection model here.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

4 years ago 0 comments

NBA

NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 12/30

Christopher Day 4 years ago

written by Christopher Day

We’re back for another edition of the Gems to break down today’s 6-game NBA slate. Despite there being a limited number of players to choose from compared to prior slates that were much larger, we still need to plant our flag somewhere and make the tough decision on which games matter most in order for us to be successful. The majority of yesterday’s news came after lock, but that’s what NBA DFS is: uncertainty, late scratches affecting our lineups, and the ability to swap players makes all the difference in the world.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Point Guards

Trae Young ($9,800 FD / $9,600 DK)

Sure, he didn’t smash in the spot he was in just a few days ago against the Pistons, but if the Hawks want to stay in this game, let alone potentially win it, Trae Young will have to go nuclear. Sporting a 34.3% usage rate, Trae is averaging 34 PPG to go along with 4 rebounds and 7.3 assists, all while shooting 53.1% from the field and 42.1% from deep. He will be a core piece of my main NBA DFS lineup tonight.

Kyrie Irving ($9,400 FD / $8,900 DK)

Despite having to share the ball with Kevin Durant throughout a game’s entirety, nothing has stopped Kyrie to already posting 29.3 PPG to go with 4.3 rebounds and 6 assists. A lethal scorer from behind the arc, in the post, and slashing to the basket, Kyrie faces Trae Young, who ranks as one of the worst defenders DVP at the position in a game with the highest over/under on the NBA slate.

Damian Lillard ($9,200 FD / $10,000 DK)

Although his usage has taken a hit with CJ McCollum rolling on offense in the past few games, Lillard is the guy that can walk onto any court, in any matchup, and drop 50 on us without anyone realizing just how good of an NBA DFS play he is from night to night because of these stacked slates. While the efficiency can certainly improve, the volume for Dame remains despite a slight drop in usage to 28.5%; he is still averaging 18.5 field goal attempts per game and 24 PPG and is in a marquee matchup versus the Clippers.

Jrue Holiday ($6,400 FD / $6,400 DK)

We finally saw what the Bucks thought they had acquired in Jrue Holiday yesterday, where he took advantage of a gamescript where Milwaukee did not need Giannis on offense; Holiday dropped a cool 24/3/7 with 3 steals and a block, including going 6/10 from behind the arc. They are finally giving him more touches than DiVincenzo and he’ll be a core piece again tonight on FD, especially if Butler plays, which will make this one more competitive. *Edit* Still a fine play even with Butler ruled out, but tread carefully.

Shooting Guards

CJ McCollum ($8,400 FD / $7,900 DK)

You need to consider him if you are not playing Dame. If you have not noticed, the two games I am targeting most on this NBA slate is ATL/BKN and POR/LAC with some MIA/MIL – I do not enjoy rostering McCollum because he has a tendency to go invisible on us at times, but with how well he has played out of the gate, you need to consider him while he remains affordable. Currently averaging a higher usage rate than Lillard at 29.7%, McCollum has dropped a whooping 29 PPG while shooting 43.7% from the field and 42.9% from 3.

Jimmy Butler ($8,000 FD / $7,500 DK)

Way too cheap for the engine of the Miami Heat. Whether it be a defensive assignment, carrying the offense, or like most nights, a hybrid of both, Butler is simply too cheap for his ceiling in this marquee matchup versus Milwaukee. The injury concern does not worry me one bit – he sat out yesterday for a reason. Butler has been slow out of the gate riddled with injuries, but if he’s a go, I’ll have a ton, especially on DK. OUT

Khris Middleton ($7,800 FD / $7,400 DK)

I mentioned him yesterday as a pivot to a chalky Giannis and we had the right concept – it just happened to be more Holiday over Middleton. If Butler plays, I’ll be all over Middleton yet again who has been having quite the season thus far, averaging 26.3/6.5/5.8 across 4 games and is the secondary option for this Bucks team that will need contributions from both he and Jrue Holiday to take back-to-back games in Miami. *Edit* Less Middleton for me now that Butler is out.

Small Forwards

Kevin Durant ($9,500 FD / $8,400 DK)

A core piece for me on DK for tonight’s NBA slate, KD is fresh having rested the other night versus Memphis. The SF position is bare with talent, but deep enough to consider fading him on FD, but I won’t be. The upside is massive in a spot versus the Hawks that play at one of the fastest paces in the league and having John Collins on KD, someone who fouls anybody that moves, is no bueno for the Hawks tonight. Because of his foul trouble, where he is averaging 4.3 per game, Collins has only played 24 minutes per game – 24. Now, give me De’Andre Hunter and Bogdan/Gallinari/Reddish on KD? Please lock in the man who is shooting 53.2% from the field, 69.2% from 3, has a true shooting percentage of 56.5% and is averaging over 8 free throws per game.

After Kevin Durant, the selection for the second SF on FD becomes quite interesting. The pool of usable players is quite large compared to other positions, not because there are a ton of great options, but because they are equally mediocre. For now, considering the time of writing is quite early in the day, my player pool will be as followed, but keep up in Discord for updates, as well as updates to the article throughout the day as news rolls in:

Keldon Johnson ($5,800 FD / $5,700 DK)
Bogdan Bogdanovic ($5,400 FD / $4,800 DK)
Tyler Herro ($4,500 FD / $5,400 DK) *Edit* HUGE BUMP
Cam Reddish ($4,400 FD / $4,400 DK)
Donte DiVincenzo ($4,400 FD / $4,900 DK)
De’Andre Hunter ($4,300 FD)

Power Forwards

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,000 FD / $10,800 DK)

Nobody’s playing him after yesterday’s dud, but if Butler is in, Giannis skyrockets up my rankings tonight. Having only played his starters 20-25 minutes yesterday, Coach Budenholzer will go right back to well and run them for 35+ minutes should Butler play in this one. Yes, Giannis is only averaging 1.48 FPPM this season, but yesterday’s game has a lot to do with that – he’s a career 1.8 FPPM player and is an elite target on any NBA slate, especially in a matchup that requires him to play 36 for them to win given how shallow their bench is now after acquiring Jrue Holiday.

Jayson Tatum ($9,200 FD / $8,600 DK)

Way too cheap on both sites for someone that is the Boston offense now. Having taken off in the NBA bubble last season, Tatum is right back averaging 25.5/9.3/3.3 and 1.5 steals per game for the Celtics while shooting 44.3% from the field on a whopping 22 FG attempts per game. I much prefer Kyrie/KD/Trae on this slate, but if you’re looking to get different with a pay up spot, Tatum is my guy.

Honorable Mentions:

Robert Covington ($5,200 FD / $4,700 DK)
Brandon Clarke ($4,600 FD / $5,100 DK)

Centers

Jonas Valanciunas ($7,500 FD / $7,700 DK)

Let everyone else play the Kyle Anderson’s, the Dillon Brooks’ etc. I’ll gladly take the Memphis player I want at surprisingly low ownership at the time of writing. With Ja Morant ruled out for multiple weeks with an ankle injury, look for JoVal to see a notable uptick in usage tonight. I wrote up Myles Turner yesterday and got him at 0.6% ownership versus this very same Celtics frontcourt of Theis/Thompson – and he went on for 16/6 with 2 steals and 3 blocks, good for nearly 40 fantasy points – and he has half of the offensive upside that Valanciunas has. Give me the big man as my main center on FD.

FD Bonus Play: Serge Ibaka ($5,400)
DK Bonus Play: Deandre Jordan ($4,600)
Punt: Enes Kanter ($4,800 FD / $4,400 DK)

Value Gems: Check the projection model here.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

4 years ago 0 comments

NBA

NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 12/29

Christopher Day 4 years ago

written by Christopher Day

We are on a roll six slates into the NBA season and we will continue to do so tonight with another heavy schedule on tap. With the key news of yesterday coming as a shock to some, let me take the time to remind you that what happened yesterday is NBA DFS in a nutshell: make a lineup before lock approaches, and you fail to adjust accordingly. Make sure to stay on top of the news and be on your laptop/phone at least one hour prior to lock to maximize winnings.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Looking into today’s NBA slate, as stated above, it’s important to keep up with the news – Jimmy Butler is trending to being out for the Heat, while the Clippers may also be without Kawhi Leonard tonight after an accident with Serge Ibaka that saw Kawhi catch an inadvertent elbow to the face. Before the slate turns on its head, let’s have a look at an early player pool:

Point Guards

Russell Westbrook ($10,600 FD / $9,700 DK)

Coming off a game where he sat out for rest, Russell Westbrook is in a smash spot for today’s premium price range at the point guard position. The price on FD is a bit much for my taste, but I’ll have a ton of shares on DK; Westbrook is coming off back-to-back triple-doubles in his first two games for the Wizards and will be facing a Chicago Bulls team that cannot guard the backcourt after losing Kris Dunn in the offseason and Tomas Satoransky still recovering from injury. Although his efficiency has been as bad as it gets in the NBA, the volume is simply undeniable; Westbrook has taken a whopping 41 shots in two games, having a 31.8% usage rate on the offensive end of the ball.

Stephen Curry ($9,400 FD / $9,600 DK)

All it took was a juicy matchup versus the very same Bulls team we just spoke about above for Curry and the Warriors to get the monkey off their backs. Coming off the crucial first win of the NBA season, Curry now sees a Detroit Pistons team that will be sending out a combination of rookie Killian Hayes and Derrick Rose to guard the 2-time MVP. His 3-point shooting efficiency hasn’t been as deadeye as prior years, but with a ridiculous 35 attempts in just three games, Steph has the potential to break the slate tonight.

Malcolm Brogdon ($7,500 FD / $7,200 DK)

Let the rest of the NBA community continue to sleep on these Indiana Pacers, and I will continue going right back to them at low ownership. Criminally underpriced in a playoff-type matchup, Malcolm Brogdon has been the cog of this Pacers offense since coming over from Milwaukee and forming quite with the duo with a certain PF you’ll read about shortly. Yes, the matchup is not ideal versus Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown, but it’s more so the fact that Vegas has this game as the tightest on the NBA slate – and rightfully so. Averaging 21.3/4.7/6.3 and 1.7 steals per game in his first three, Brogdon will be relied upon heavily in this one.

Goran Dragic ($6,900 FD / $5,800 DK)

Assuming Jimmy Butler is ruled out for tonight’s contest versus the Bucks, look for the guard trio of Dragic, Robinson, and Herro to pick up the slack on offense while Bam Adebayo is tasked with guarding Giannis throughout the game. Coming off the bench in both appearances for the Heat this far, Dragic has been his old self, contributing 19/3/8 on 58.3% shooting and having a 27.1% usage rate.

Honorable Mention: Jrue Holiday ($6,400 FD / $6,700 DK)

Shooting Guards

Bradley Beal ($9,600 FD / $9,300 DK)

The highest over/under on the NBA slate by 8 points and two teams that don’t play defense? Yeah, you need a piece of this game in some form. If you’re not playing Westbrook, I’d strongly consider Beal as an alternative if you are not comfortable with the value pieces in this one. Yes, Westbrook was assumed to have been stealing touches from Beal, but that is not the case whatsoever – Beal has a 35.9% usage rate this season and he has picked up right where he left off last season, already averaging 33/4.7/5, including games of 29, 31, and 39 points, respectively.

Khris Middleton ($7,800 FD / $7,700 DK)

A great tournament pivot to a chalky Giannis Antetokounmpo, Middleton is silencing doubters, myself included, with his early-season performance as the Robin to Giannis’ Batman. Grabbing at least 4 boards and 5 assists in every game thus far, Middleton is averaging a quiet 26.7/7.3/6 across three games thus far in 32 minutes per game. With the Heat being so concerned with Bam guarding Giannis, Middleton will have ample opportunity to switch onto whoever he likes on the offensive end with Butler presumed out.

Paul George ($7,600 FD / $8,500 DK)

Should Kawhi be ruled out as anticipated in this one, PG13 becomes a near-lock for me on this NBA slate. Already having a 30% usage rate, PG sees a notable uptick to 33.4% with Kawhi off the floor. Look for both he and Lou Williams to shoulder the load on offense tonight versus a Timberwolves team that will be without their sole defender in Karl-Anthony Towns.

Devin Booker ($7,500 FD / $9,100 DK)

His price is steep enough on DK to warrant his low ownership, but Booker should not be this underowned on FD. Yes, he is surrounded by pieces listed both above and below him, but that’s exactly why I’ll have a ton of him. I love attacking Suns games because their defense is questionable at best, and they love to play an up-pace type of offense. A game versus the Pelicans who are even worse defensively and push the pace even more? Sign me up for a mini stack in this one in the form of Booker paired with Ingram or Zion.

Zach Lavine ($7,500 FD / $8,400 DK)

We said we wanted a piece of the Washington game, and there is no better Chicago Bull to play on any given night than their star shooting guard. A slasher that has the ability to knock down a jump shot, Lavine has really rounded his offensive game in the past few seasons and has become a legit offensive player in the NBA. You’ll need his scoring to get you there for NBA tournament play, but he has the ability to score in bunches given his 34.1% usage rate and Coby White’s struggles early on.

Honorable Mention: D’Angelo Russell ($7,300 FD / $7,600 DK)

Small Forwards

Brandon Ingram ($8,500 FD / $8,200 DK)

As mentioned in the Devin Booker blurb, this game is a big piece of my NBA lineups tonight: high total, fast pace, two teams that don’t play defense. Check, check, check. Ingram and Zion are on a mission this season to prove the league they have grown as players and Ingram’s Most Improved Player award was no fluke; the latter is underpriced on DK while being a premium option at the forever-thin SF position on FD, averaging a nice 26.7/7.3/6.7 in 36.7 minutes per game on 44.1% shooting and 30.2% usage.

Larry Nance Jr. ($5,500 FD / $6,300 DK)

Filling in for the injured Kevin Love, Larry Nance Jr. will always be a target for our NBA DFS lineups in these exact situations. Rocking a mere 15.3% usage rate, Nance blows up on offense when the Cavs are this depleted in the frontcourt and on the wing, becoming a legitimate threat alongside Andre Drummond, Collin Sexton, and Darius Garland. He’s a stone cold lock for your FD cash games, and at $5,500, his ceiling potential is there, but be careful on DK where a 30-point effort is simply not enough for his price tag.

Honorable Mention: Tyler Herro ($4,500 FD / $5,700 DK)

Others:

Michael Porter Jr. ($5,900 FD / $6,400 DK)
Jerami Grant ($5,700 FD / $6,500 DK)

Power Forwards

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,000 FD / $10,800 DK)

Not much to say here about the NBA’s back-to-back MVP; he’s averaging over 1.9 FPPM, the Bucks bench is as depleted as it gets in the NBA, and Jimmy Butler is likely going to be out. With Bam Adebayo still drawing as a tough matchup for Giannis, Milwaukee has been crafty enough to open him up and offsetting some minutes between he and Middleton.

Domantas Sabonis ($8,900 FD / $8,600 DK)

Hopefully you’re noticing a pattern by now: Indiana is on the NBA slate? Sabonis will be in my article. This guy deserves the respect of not only the NBA, but the DFS community alike in what he does, day in, day out on the court for this Pacers team. He is a lesser version of Nikola Jokic in the sense that his court vision is elite for a big man, he’s able to pass the ball exceptionally well, and can scoring in multiple ways. Facing an offensive-minded Jayson Tatum now, Sabonis should be able to bully his way into the post and be a strong rebounder on both ends of the court tonight.

Zion Williamson ($8,600 FD / $8,100 DK)

Both he and Ingram are on an absolute tear to begin the NBA season, averaging 21.7 PPG. Despite the lower usage rate than his fellow teammate, Zion has been a force on the glass, averaging 11.7 rebounds per game and will see a Suns frontcourt that is constantly battling struggles on the defensive end and foul trouble.

Honorable Mention: Julius Randle ($7,700 FD / $8,200 DK)

Centers

Nikola Jokic ($10,300 FD / $10,200 DK)

The walking triple-double, it’s been every Nuggets game where I have written up The Joker, and it is not going to stop any time soon. I refer to him this way because, not only is he the best passing big man in the NBA, but he has been an absolute force on the glass, averaging 12 rebounds per game, and can score any way he wishes. Tread carefully on the second half of a back-to-back, but Jokic is in yet another smash spot versus a Sacramento frontcourt that features two of the worst defenders DVP at the position in Hassan Whiteside and Richaun Holmes.

Pool:

Andre Drummond ($9,400 FD / $8,700 DK)
Myles Turner ($7,200 FD / $6,000 DK)
Mason Plumlee ($6,000 FD / $5,700 DK)

FD Bonus Plays: Thomas Bryant ($5,200) and Wendall Carter Jr. ($5,100)

Value Gems: Check the projection model here.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

4 years ago 0 comments

NBA

NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 12/28

Christopher Day 4 years ago

written by Christopher Day

Thank you to the one and only 2Lock for covering me yesterday! We had another great NBA slate and members are making ground on building bankrolls and already taking down tournaments!

We also lead by example and play exactly what we write/discuss in Discord – shoutout the 2Lock for this hit!

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Looking into today’s NBA slate, it’s important to keep up with the news – we have another shorthanded Houston Rockets team as John Wall, Demarcus Cousins, and others continue to quarantine, along with the possibility of Kevin Durant sitting out, and news to follow on a certain duo in LA in LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Let’s get to it:

Point Guards

Trae Young ($9,800 FD / $9,500 DK)

Despite only having five games on today’s NBA slate, the group of elite point guards is not shallow, beginning with the man out of Atlanta. Trae Young has been on an absolute tear two games into the season, averaging 36.5/4.5/8 on 55.6% shooting across 30.5 minutes per game. Playing a Detroit team that averages over 48 FPPG allowed to the point position and lining up versus rookie Killian Hayes, Trae will be able to do whatever he wants on the offensive end of the ball tonight.

*Edit* After Kyrie Irving got announced OUT, I am now locking in one of, if not both Trae Young and Ja Morant in every lineup.

Kyrie Irving ($9,400 FD / $9,000 DK)

It doesn’t take too long to get some news in our player pool with Kyrie Irving possibly suiting up for the first time without Kevin Durant tonight. The latter, who is coming off a gruesome achilles injury, will likely be sitting on the second half of their back-to-back, leaving Kyrie running the offense on his own. Potentially without Spencer Dinwiddie as well, Kyrie has a 34.8% usage rate with these teammates off the court and will be lining up on sophomore Ja Morant, who has been one of the worst defenders DVP in his young NBA career in addition to being turnover prone. OUT

Damian Lillard ($9,400 FD / $10,300 DK)

The forgotten about stud at the position, Dame has been ice cold to start the season – but can break out at any time – and I will be there for it when it happens. While the other three targets at the position are a priority for me over Dame, his volume is simply undeniable for his upside: in their last game versus Houston, Dame dropped a whopping 32/5/9 despite only shooting 11/28 from the field and 5/13 from deep. Should he improve his efficiency from the field and hit the deck much harder in his mid-range, look out.

*Edit* Underrated stud still not pulling ownership after Kyrie Irving was ruled OUT

Ja Morant ($8,500 FD / $8,300 DK)

One of 3-max entries will consist of Harden and the point guard battle in this game. Ja is on a mission to set the league on fire after an impressive rookie campaign and having led the Grizzlies to a play-in position for the playoffs in the West. Playing a relentless number of minutes, Morant is already averaging 36/2.5/8 in the first two games of the season and has a 35.1% usage rate.

*Edit* See Trae Young edit

Honorable Mention: Jamal Murray ($7,100 FD / $7,100 DK)

Shooting Guards

James Harden ($11,500 FD / $11,200 DK)

The most prolific scorer of our generation is a lock on this NBA slate – again. There are no statistics that need to be mentioned here, just play the man. The Rockets will be undermanned again, and he’ll carry them all night long. Last game: 34.3% usage rate, 1.82 FPPM, 44/4/17. 44 points. 17 assists. Are you kidding me?

Dennis Schroder ($6,000 FD / $6,100 DK)

This play hinges on the fact that LeBron sits on the second half of a back-back, but we like to take a stab at where the news will likely trend when writing up plays and follow up afterward. Specifically if Bron sits, Schroder will see a significant bump in usage and work on the offensive side of the ball as he runs the pick ‘n roll with AD and will be relied upon to be the second scoring option.

FD Special: Dillon Brooks ($3,700)

DK Special: Svi Mykhailiuk ($3,600)

Small Forwards

Caris LeVert ($6,300 FD / $6,600 DK)

Similarly to Kyrie Irving, Caris LeVert is in a great spot with Brooklyn injury news to follow. With KD and Spencer Dinwiddie off the floor, LeVert has a whopping 32.8% usage rate as he has been relied upon to run the second unit with Dinwiddie getting the start early this season. With the highest over/under on the NBA slate and with how fast both teams play, I certainly want to attack this one, and LeVert will be a big piece of that.

*Edit* Lock of the slate with James Harden

Jerami Grant ($5,700 FD / $5,900 DK)

These Detroit players have been quite the gems for us early in this NBA season. See what I did there? Gems? Ghost’s Gems. Dad jokes aside, Jerami Grant is finally getting to thrive in an offensive role on a depleted Detroit team after being relied upon solely for his defensive ability in Denver. He’s a strong rebounder, quietly an underappreciated wing defender, and will see a ton of minutes with Blake Griffin out.

Josh Jackson ($4,300 FD / $4,200 DK)

See above – Detroit will be a primary spot for me to get value on this NBA slate and Josh Jackson has been a Win Daily special early in the season. Getting this guy at 0.5% ownership on a 13-game slate was no surprise, but I trust the model 100% and saw Jackson go for 10x value after being a Top-5 value play in our model. With how depleted Detroit is tonight, specifically with Derrick Rose out, Jackson gives us a great option at a terrible SF position.

Houston Rockets Value

Both Danuel House ($4,100 FD / $4,800 DK) and Jae’Sean Tate ($4,200 FD / $4,100 DK) will see an uptick in minutes with the Rockets being heavily undermanned. With everyone flocking to Danuel House and Sterling Brown on their first game, we were the only ones to have Tate this high in our model and saw him run for 24 DK, good for 8x his minimum price value, at 2% ownership, and outscoring Brown, Nwaba, and House – not bad if I do say so myself. Now, with Tate being more expensive than the others, I’m curious to see where the ownership lands on this NBA slate.

Power Forwards

Anthony Davis ($10,200 FD / $10,100 DK)

Possibly being with LeBron James tonight, AD is in a smash spot. Portland has struggled out of the gate defending bigs, and AD is one of the best to do it in the NBA. A whopping 35.3% usage rate with Bron off the court, AD will have his way with Jusuf Nurkic and Enes Kanter in the paint.

Christian Wood ($8,100 FD / $7,200 DK)

A key focal point in our NBA lineups just a few days ago, Christian Wood is still too cheap here versus Denver. Yes, Jokic is a tough matchup inside. But with the number of minutes this guy is slated to play, he’ll find a way to crush again, especially with backup center Mason Plumlee now in Detroit. Rocking a 27.7% usage rate is nothing eye-popping under normal circumstances, but when you’re sharing the court with James Harden, it is. A 31/13 repeat performance is possible, but even if Wood trends in the 25/10 range, we’ll more than we need out of him at these prices.

Bonus Play: Sekou Doumbouya ($3,500 FD / $3,400 DK)

Centers

Nikola Jokic ($10,000 FD / $9,800 DK)

Another stud that is going to get overlooked on this NBA slate, The Joker is in a prime spot to smash the Houston Rockets. The key? He’s game proof because he’s able to play versus small-ball lineups with his perimeter defending and offensive game. The best passing big man in the game, Jokic is averaging a 26.5/12/12 triple-double in his first two games – if you don’t believe me when I call him a walking triple-double every time I reference him, you will eventually. Game stack this one with Harden/Wood/Jokic.

Clint Capela ($6,500 FD / $5,900 DK)

Making his season debut, I will be overweight on an unowned Clint Capela should we have the news saying he is a full-go with no minutes restriction. Seeing John Collins struggle at the ‘5’ and consistently get into foul trouble has been quite frustrating, but Capela is the piece the Hawks need right now to run the pick ‘n roll with one of the league’s best passers in Trae Young since rookie Onyeka Okongwu is still dealing with injuries.

Bonus Play: Mason Plumlee ($6,000 FD / $5,700 DK): The Win Daily gem…

Value Gems: Check the projection model here.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

4 years ago 0 comments

NBA

NBA DFS: Ghost’s GPP Gems 12/26

Christopher Day 4 years ago

written by Christopher Day

I hope everyone had a nice holiday yesterday! We have another exciting NBA slate ahead with plenty of news to follow, so make sure to stay in Discord for updates as player statuses get updated.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Point Guards

Damian Lillard ($9,000 FD / $9,500 DK)

Dame Time versus Harden? Yes, please. Damian Lillard thrives in these types of matchups, where he is facing another bonafide NBA superstar and likes to set the tone early and shoot often. He is coming off a performance where he was wildly inefficient, dropping a mere 9 points on 4/12 shooting, which is what will keep his ownership lower than it should be in a matchup that will see close to no defense.

De’Aaron Fox ($8,200 FD / $8,700 DK)

If you listened to any of the preseason NBA podcasts or streams, you’ll know by now just how high I am on De’Aaron Fox and his ceiling. Coming off a season where he averaged 21.1/3.8/6.8 and 1.5 steals per game, Fox plays at a ridiculous pace and carries the Kings offense through a 29.8% usage rate. In a matchup versus CP3 and the Suns, Fox will be able to take advantage of the same backcourt that just allowed Luka Doncic, Josh Richardson, and Jalen Brunson to combine for 56 points, 17 rebounds and 10 assists.

Malcolm Brogdon ($7,100 FD / $7,400 DK)

As I wrote in my article for the 12/23 slate where we had 13 games on tap, if you don’t know who Malcolm Brogdon and Domantas Sabonis are by now, you will shortly. Running point for an efficient Pacers offense, Brogdon will be able to take advantage of rookie Coby White, who is impressive on the offensive end of the ball but lacks experience on the flipside. While the Bulls guarded the backcourt extremely well last season, Kris Dunn, who is now in Atlanta, is no longer there, and Tomas Satoransky was a DNP-CD last game. Look for Brogdon and Sabonis to light up the Bulls tonight.

Terry Rozier ($6,400 FD / $7,000 DK)

While chasing a 42-point game is never a good idea, that is not the reason for which I am considering Terry Rozier on today’s NBA slate. While 3rd overall pick, LaMelo Ball, is the future, Rozier does not seem to plan on relinquishing the role any time soon given how he played on opening day. Yes, it was a soft matchup versus the Cavaliers, but the Thunder are even worse having traded most of their playoff roster from last season. With he and backcourt run mate Devonte’ Graham playing 37 minutes apiece on opening day, there is no reason to believe that Rozier cannot exceed value, especially on FD if not paying up at the point guard position, even if Ball gets more run in this one.

Darius Garland ($5,500 FD / $5,600 DK)

With the Cavaliers in NBA purgatory, their roster is simply in shambles. A frontcourt tandem of Kevin Love and Andre Drummond is one that can keep them competitive – or give them two valuable trade assets – but Cleveland needs their backcourt of Garland and Sexton to take the next step this season. Garland had a strong preseason and followed it up with 22/6/6 on opening day versus the Hornets, and he gets another soft matchup here versus Detroit.

Shooting Guards

James Harden ($11,000 FD / $10,900 DK)

The most prolific offensive player in the NBA had quite the offseason; being at the center of wild trade rumors out of Houston, being the center of attention of NBA media, and more, but James Harden is a stone cold lock for me on this slate. Can this game get out of hand? The only way it does is if Harden doesn’t feel like playing, which will not be the case considering Houston is only fielding a roster of 8 players. Even with Russell Westbrook in Houston last season, Harden had the league’s third-highest usage rate at 36.3% and the highest ISO percentage – which can only increase with Westbrook now in Washington. He may very well take north of 30 shots tomorrow and I will be centering my single entry and 3-max builds around him.

Bradley Beal ($8,100 FD / $9,300 DK)

This play gets a whole lot more interesting should Russell Westbrook, who will not play one game of two on back-to-backs, be out. However, even with Westbrook in, Beal makes for a great tournament option considering the field will pair Harden with a value play in most contests. Coming off a season where Beal truly broke out with John Wall injured for the entire season, he thrived having the fifth-highest usage rate in the NBA at 34.4% and saw a similar workload on opening day with 36% en route to a 31/2/3 stat line on 50% shooting.

Donovan Mitchell ($7,700 FD / $8,400 DK)

With Rudy Gobert being tasked with guarding Karl-Anthony Towns and manning the paint, looking for Donovan Mitchell to carry the load on offense versus a Timberwolves team that has luckluster defenders in D’Angelo Russell, Ricky Rubio, and Anthony Edwards as potential matchups for one of the stars from last season’s NBA bubble. Mitchell has the upside we need to take down a tournament, and in a game with a 225.5 over/under, the pace will be there for him to score in bunches. He won’t stuff the sheet with rebounds and assists, making him a risky play, with James Harden soaking up all the ownership at the ‘2’, Mitchell will be sub 2% owned.

Devonte’ Graham ($5,400 FD / $6,700 DK)

He’s a tad expensive on DK, but Graham’s price on FD is laughable. Playing 37 minutes on opening day alongside Terry Rozier, Graham was outshadowed by his backcourt partner’s 42 points, but this will certainly not be the case every night. He was an NBA Most Improved Player candidate last season and offers a ton of upside on both sides of the ball in a marquee NBA DFS matchup versus the OKC Thunder.

FD bonus play: Devin Booker ($7,900)

Small Forwards

This will be a position where we can explore our value options on today’s NBA slate. Rather than writing them all up, make sure to check the projection model to see who is popping in the value column in a group containing Josh Jackson, Sterling Brown, Danuel House, and Isaac Okoro, amongst others.

Power Forwards

Domantas Sabonis ($8,500 FD / $8,500 DK)

I wrote him up for Indiana’s first game and we saw him smash the Knicks for 32/13/5 and 58.3 DK points; if you do not know who Domantas Sabonis is by now, you will by the end of the season. He is the most underrated power forward in the NBA in my opinion and plays a very similar style to Nikola Jokic; a big man with excellent vision, amazing passing ability, and can score many different ways. In a matchup versus an inexperienced Lauri Markkanen and Wendall Carter Jr., Sabonis will provide a solid floor/ceiling combination.

Aaron Gordon ($6,900 FD / $6,900 DK)

Usage is fairly spread out for an Orlando Magic team that is surprisingly balanced with Markelle Fultz, Evan Fournier, Gordon, and of course, Nikola Vucevic, in addition to rookie Cole Anthony coming off the bench. Vuc is the priority for me in my Orlando exposure, as I always love to target Washington’s defense, but where I can, I’ll slide in Gordon for the savings and take advantage of his matchup on the wing.

Christian Wood ($6,700 FD / $5,900 DK)

Being center eligible on DK, Christian Wood will be in the majority of my lineups on both sites tomorrow. With Houston running only 8 active players due to COVID exposure, Wood will see a ton of run in the frontcourt and will be called upon to lead the charge as a secondary scorer to James Harden. While Josef Nurkic is no slouch on defense, the fact that Houston is so undermanned and Wood’s combination of scoring and rebounding in this one makes him an easy target; he is a lock for our cash games.

Centers

Joel Embiid ($9,800 FD / $10,200 DK)

After getting off to a slow start, Joel Embiid showed the NBA just how dominant he can be in the second half of their season debut versus Washington. Being able to score from behind the arc, dominate the post like no other, and be a force on the defensive end, Mitchell Robinson, someone who quickly gets into foul trouble, and Julius Randle will be in tough versus the one known as ‘The Process’. After WD favorite Domantas Sabonis just dropped a near trouble-double on this very same frontcourt, just imagine what Embiid will do tonight.

Andre Drummond ($8,400 FD / $9,200 DK)

A threat to drop 20/20 in on any given NBA slate, Andre Drummond returns home to face his former team in the Detroit Pistons. Opening day gem Mason Plumlee was a force for us and is solid on the defensive end, but Dre is a bully in the paint and will surely give him a hard time on the glass all night long.

Nikola Vucevic ($8,200 FD / $9,100 DK)

One of my favorite targets at the center position on today’s NBA slate, Vucevic will be virtually unowned with everyone paying up for James Harden and other pieces mentioned. Remaining the focal point of the Magic offense, Vuc has a glorious matchup versus Thomas Bryant who was just torched by Embiid in their season debut. Washington has been ranking in the bottom-3 of the NBA DVP versus the center position over the past few years, allowing over 55 FPPG to the position, and it surely won’t change this year.

Value Gems: Check the projection model here. Expect a lot of Houston Rockets.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

4 years ago 0 comments

Newer Posts

Older Posts

Ghost

NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 01/06

NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 01/05

NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 01/04

NFL DFS: Ghost’s Week 17 Gems

NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 01/01

NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 12/31

NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 12/30

NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 12/29

NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 12/28

NBA DFS: Ghost’s GPP Gems 12/26

Subscribe to our newsletter

The best bets and resources to make you more profitable

Our Company

©2024 WIN DAILY^®. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

Win Daily Sports is Now DFSArmy!

Exciting news! Win Daily Sports has officially merged with DFSArmy! Your membership is now even more powerful with new tools, expert picks, and a larger DFS community—all at the same price!

Special Offer for New Members!

Limited time only subscribe to DFSArmy for 10% off!

What’s Next for WinDailySports.com?

We’d like to thank you all for your continued support! In the coming weeks and months, WinDailySports.com will be relaunched with an exciting new vision in the industry.

Stay tuned—we can’t wait to serve you in a totally different way with our expert knowledge. More details coming soon!

🚀 Watch this space for what’s next!

Queue

Ghost

Subscribe to our newsletter

The best bets and resources to make you more profitable

Our Company

©2024 WIN DAILY®. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

Queue

©2024 WIN DAILY^®. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.