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After a very successful first full NBA slate on 12/23, we are back for all the money on Christmas Day. A true NBA tradition, every one of these matchups has high-profile players in them; this not only translates to some interesting lineup builds on both DraftKings and FanDuel, but it also makes the combination of ‘Stars ‘n Scrubs’ all that more attractive. Although it is to a lesser extent than both opening day and the 12/23 slate because we are not on either extreme of a 2-game slate or a 13-game slate, we must still plant our flag somewhere in order to reach the top of the leaderboards – on opening day, it was a condensed player pool, whereas the 12/23 slate was all about identifying which of the 13 games we wanted exposure to. Thus, I will be identifying which players can be in the optimal lineup for both sites and crossing many off my list – if you have any questions, feel free to tag me in Discord, but I will say this, players are not mentioned for a reason.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineups after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Point Guards

Luka Doncic ($11,400 FD / $10,000 DK)

I mentioned him in my write-up for last slate and how he was a focal point for our NBA cash lineups. Despite not putting up a ridiculous amount of points, he proved to be a necessity because he was over 80% owned in all cash contests – with 50% of the field getting paid out, you need to roster these extremely high-owned players (we call them chalk for future reference) because if they go nuclear and you did not roster them, you are dead in the water. I had also mentioned that Luka sees an uptick in usage with Porzingis off the floor, increasing from 36.8% to nearly 40% — and that’s exactly what happened. Doncic dropped an efficient 32/8/5 without a single 3-pointer and saw a 39.7% usage rate in 36 minutes. Playing against someone that just signed him to a shoe deal, one his idols, and on Christmas Day has all the narrative – and analytics to back it up – that we need to play Luka in this matchup, but with other studs being the priority for me, he’ll make one of my 3-max lines but I will be slightly underweight compared to the field in my 150-max. Luka. LeBron. Primetime. Christmas Day. You do in fact, love to see it.

Kyrie Irving ($8,900 FD / $8,500 DK)

You wanted a Luka vs LeBron narrative? Check. How about a Kyrie back to Boston narrative? Also, check. The shiftiest man in the NBA was back to his old ways in Steve Nash’s new-look Brooklyn offense and was putting defenders on ice in his season debut. Facing Marcus Smart in this one is no cakewalk, but Kyrie has been victorious in this matchup before from his days in Cleveland, averaging 22.7/2.9/5.6 across 33.4 minutes in 7 matchups versus Smart. Still underpriced on both sites, this game has all the appeal we need to get our star power from it: with the second-highest over/under on the slate at 229.5, Brooklyn’s pace in their season debut will force Boston’s hand in choosing to double only one of Kyrie and KD – lock at least one in your lineups with confidence.

Steph Curry ($8,700 FD / $10,200 DK)

Was it a disappointing season opener for the Warriors? Yes, absolutely; they looked lost on defense without Draymond Green in the lineup, Steph got no help with lackluster play from Andrew Wiggins, and this Brooklyn Nets offense may be even scarier than we anticipated in the offseason. Nonetheless, this +10.5 spread is disrespectful to the greatest shooter of all time and his Warriors. With Pat Connaughton and Bobby Portis being the first to come off the bench for the Bucks, the Warriors will not have to deal with the likes of Caris LeVert and Jarrett Allen in this one like they did on opening day and will be able to keep it close. Milwaukee struggles from deep, giving up the most 3pm in the 2019-2020 NBA season with 1,020, good for 13.97 per game. Yeah, they give up a ton, oh, and Curry isn’t too bad of a 3-point shooter.

Jrue Holiday ($7,000 FD / $7,500 DK)

If you’re not playing Giannis Antetokounmpo in your lineup but are playing Steph Curry, I highly recommend getting one of Jrue Holiday or Khris Middleton. With Steph almost guaranteed to carry the Warriors offense on any given night, someone needs to keep pace with the 2-time NBA MVP and 3-time NBA Champion. Enter the prized offseason acquisition, Jrue Holiday. Coming off an inspiring debut with his new team, Jrue shot an efficient 10/16 from the floor en route to 25/6/3 in 38 minutes – 38 minutes! Not many players will see as much action as Jrue on the entire slate, and that alone makes him worthy to be in our NBA lineups.

Jeff Teague ($5,800 FD / $4,200 DK)

The projection model had him as the fourth-best value on a slate with 300+ players, so I cannot wait to see what it gives us for Jeff Teague tomorrow. He’s a stone cold lock for me on DK tomorrow and makes for an interesting pivot on FD to the chalkier options in the premium price range above him. With Brooklyn really pushing the pace, I’m not expecting many rotations where Brad Stevens runs both Daniel Theis and Tristan Thompson on the floor at the same time, rather, he’ll stagger the two to counter the 1-2 punch of Jordan and Allen at the center position for the Nets. Enter Teague, who will be a primary benefactor of an up-pace matchup with Kemba Walker sidelined once again.

Shooting Guards

Paul George ($7,600 FD / $8,700 DK)

I’ll be severely underweight yet again on DK with him being priced with the likes of Kyrie Irving, but his position eligibility on FD makes him an interesting target, especially if you’re not playing Kawhi Leonard. This could be a chance for Paul George to redeem himself from their playoff exit versus these same Denver Nuggets, but PG will certainly be in tough versus the likes of Will Barton on the wing – if he can switch onto MPJ and Gary Harris all game long, look out for another great performance from PG13.

Khris Middleton ($7,400 FD / $7,400 DK)

Similarly to what I said above with regards to Jrue Holiday, if you’re playing Steph Curry and not playing Giannis, you need to consider Middleton to be your main runback. With Golden State being smaller than most teams up the middle in a similar fashion to Boston, Middleton may not duplicate his 14-rebound performance from opening night, but he can certainly reach double digits. Add in the fact that he looked good distributing the ball and scoring on 50% of his field goals, Middleton has sneaky upside amongst the mid-range targets.

Eric Bledsoe ($5,600 FD / $5,600 DK)

At a mere $5,600 on both sites, Eric Bledsoe is trending to be one of my favorite targets tomorrow before running the projections. Starting alongside Lonzo Ball, Bledsoe saw a whopping 34 minutes of action in his Pelicans debut, second to only Brandon Ingram. With Jimmy Butler being preoccupied with both Ingram and Zion, look for Bledsoe to shoulder another heavy workload in the first game of the NBA slate.

Dennis Schroder ($5,000 FD / $6,300 DK)

Dropping a near triple-double in his Lakers debut, Dennis Schroder is severely unpriced on FD and still affordable on DK. While I am not anticipating a duplicate performance because of LeBron and AD having much better games this time around, Schroder’s ability to log heavy minutes and act as a secondary scorer whenever James or Davis leave the floor has him a part of my player pool.

Donte DiVincenzo ($4,500 FD / $4,700 DK)

He won’t wow you with anything other than his scoring ability, but DiVi has strong upside on this NBA slate because of the number of minutes he will log compared to that of other value plays. With Milwaukee playing the entire starting unit 27 or more minutes considering how shallow their bench is, he makes for a premier option on a slate where we’re starving for value to jam in the studs.

Small Forwards

LeBron James ($11,000 FD / $10,000 DK)

Is there much of an explanation as to why we should be considering LeBron James on Christmas Day? This will be Bron’s 15th Christmas Day game, where he currently averages 25.8/7.7/6.9 across 38.3 minutes of action. While both he and AD looked sluggish on opening day, this is a premier bounce back spot with how vulnerable Dallas is on defense without KP in the lineup.

Kawhi Leonard ($9,500 FD / $9,800 DK)

He’s likely going to be the lowest owned stud on the slate, and it’s not because he’s not in a good spot, but rather that others are simply in better ones. By no means do I like to target Denver’s defense, so I will be underweight in my MME pool and he will not make my single entry builds, but should the Nuggets continue to start MPJ on the wing, look for Kawhi to walk all over him on the offensive end of the ball and surprise people on this slate.

Jaylen Brown ($7,500 FD / $7,000 DK)

After a breakout campaign last season, JB started the new season off strong by dropping 33/5/3 across 37 minutes versus the Bucks in a 122-121 victory. With the Brooklyn Nets playing an up-pace, high-tempo type of game, both JB and Tatum are in an environment to thrive in this matchup, especially JB with Durant likely guarding Tatum for the majority of the game. With Jeff Teague being the calming influence on the offensive end, I’m expecting Brown’s volume and efficiency to propel the Celtics to be competitive in this one.

Brandon Ingram ($7,300 FD / $8,300 DK)

Coming off an impressive season that ended with a Most Improved Player award, BI was at it again in the Pelicans debut and scorched the Raptors for 24 points on 10/19 shooting to go along with 9 rebounds and 11 assists. He’ll be in tough if Jimmy Butler lines up on him more often than Zion, but if not, he’ll walk all over anyone else that draws this matchup.

Others to Consider

  • Caris LeVert ($5,800 FD – won’t play him on DK)
  • Will Barton ($5,200 FD / $6,300 DK)
  • Tyler Herro ($5,000 FD / $5,600 DK)
  • Joe Harris ($4,300 FD / $5,300 DK)
  • Nic Batum ($3,500 FD / $4,500 DK)

Power Forwards

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,600 FD / $10,900 DK)

The back-to-back MVP infamously missed a free throw to send their opening game versus the Celtics to overtime, but just the fact that he led the charge in overcoming a 14-point, 4th quarter deficit shows just how good he is. Nobody will be able to guard him in this matchup and with the Warriors lack of interior defense, Giannis is pricey, but worth it given his potential to put up 70+ should the Warriors keep this one close.

Anthony Davis ($10,600 FD / $10,300 DK)

Sure, he did look awfully inefficient in their debut, but with Dwight Powell and Maxi Kleber slated to guard Anthony Davis, he can bounce back in a huge fashion that you will not want to miss out on. Dallas quietly had one of, if not the best offense in the entire NBA last season and really pushed the pace, slotting in as the third-fastest team in the league, which will bode well for AD in transition. Look for him to stuff the sheet on both ends of the court.

Jayson Tatum ($9,800 FD / $9,300 DK)

Another pay up option on FD, you can see where I am going with the PF position over there – DO NOT pay down whatsoever. Tatum is one of four players I am considering at the position and is truly blossoming into a franchise cornerstone. His defensive ability has been on display since his days at Duke, but with Tatum now dropping stat lines such as the 30/7/2 he did on opening day, his price tag is well deserved in this pace up spot versus KD and company.

Kevin Durant ($8,500 FD / $9,400 DK)

He’s criminally underpriced on FD and needs to be in all of your lineups there. On DK, KD is expensive but benefits from a shallow PF position and showed that he is back from his achilles injury in full force. The 7-footer looked smooth as ever in their opening day thrashing of his former team and will be a cog to the Nets offense all season long.

Centers

Nikola Jokic ($9,700 FD / $10,100 DK)

No safer option at the center position than The Joker and he will STILL go overlooked with Montrezl Harrell garnering most of the ownership. Why? I’m not sure – Joker just dropped 29/14/15 like it was nobody’s business and is a true force to be reckoned with on both ends of the court. Yes, he was mentioned in the 12/23 article for GPPs so I hope you got your exposure, but if you did not, do not make the same mistake twice.

Montrezl Harrell ($5,100 FD / $6,000 DK)

Why he is the chalkiest option at the position, I truly cannot tell you. I said it a million times on 12/23 to NOT play him with AD because if one goes off, the other one; the other day, AD struggled, and Harrell got more run than he typically will. With AD having the softer of matchups here versus Powell/Kleber instead of Ibaka like the other day, I’ll be fine with this in cash but a hard pass in GPPs.

Deandre Jordan ($4,500 FD / $5,600 DK)

The projection model loved Jordan the other day, and he truly came through with 23 fantasy points in only 17 minutes of action, good for 1.35 FPPM. Anticipate him to get more run here with the Celtics keeping this one much closer than the Warriors did and having true centers for him to match up with in Daniel Theis and Tristan Thompson.

Value Gems: Check the projection model here

I’ve said this twice now, but I simply cannot stress it enough: remember to review the NBA projection model and NBA cheat sheet for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

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Welcome back, NBA DFS fans, to another season of NBA DFS with Win Daily Sports and your daily edition of Ghost’s Gems. For both present and future reference, the Gems article will feature plays viable for both DraftKings and FanDuel, for both cash and tournament (GPP) play. If I can make one recommendation for NBA DFS amongst all factors to consider, it would be to keep up with the news heading to lock; if you cannot be in front of your computer one hour before lock, you are at a severe disadvantage compared to the field since players will get ruled out on a daily basis because of load management, possible COVID cases, and arising injuries from morning shootaround; this is where we get the majority of our value plays from since there are now bench players getting the minutes of a starting player at much cheaper salaries.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Now, let’s get to one of, if not the biggest NBA DFS slate of the year:

Point Guards

Luka Doncic ($11,400 FD / $10,000 DK)

The slate begins with the priciest player in the league, third-year sensation, and MVP favorite, Luka Doncic of the Dallas Mavericks. A walking triple-double, Doncic averaged 28.8/9.4/8.8 across 61 games in the shortened 2019-2020 season and led his Mavericks to a playoff berth. Now, without his running partner in Kristaps Porzingis for the first month of the season, Luka will look to get the Mavs off and running to begin the new campaign. Sporting a 36.8% usage rate last season, good for second in the NBA, Doncic saw this rise to nearly 40% with KP off the floor – a small uptick, but an increase, nonetheless. With the Phoenix Suns team adding Chris Paul in the offseason, their defense will be improved, but this was still a unit that allowed over 48 fantasy points to opposing primary ball handlers last season; Doncic is a focal point for your cash builds.

Trae Young ($9,700 FD / $9,400 DK)

A tournament pivot off of Luka Doncic, enter the man whom he was traded for: Trae Young. With the additions that the Atlanta Hawks made in the offseason, expectations are high, but none are greater than those on the third-year point guard to take the next step in a similar fashion to how Doncic did so last season. Coming off an impressive 29.6/4.3/9.3 stat line in 60 games played last season, Trae fell just short of the elusive 30/10 club, finishing second in the NBA in assists behind only LeBron James. Sporting a 34.9% usage rate, Young is the Hawks offense and there’s no reason to believe he’s slowing down any time soon; the addition of Clint Capela gives him a legitimate pick and roll partner and up-pace, transition matchup versus sophomore Coby White sets up Young in a potential slate-breaking performance on the NBA’s first full slate.

Ben Simmons ($9,200 FD / $8,700 DK)

The former Rookie of the Year slots in as one our tournament plays for today’s NBA slate and is coming in extremely unowned. Facing the Wizards was a ton of fun for opposing fantasy players and their games were always ones we kept an eye on, but that got even stronger when they traded franchise cornerstone, John Wall, for Russell Westbrook. Known for his raw athleticism, triple-double, and simply stuffing the stat sheet, Westbrook is one of the worst defenders DVP and will be no match for the Aussie on the defensive side of the ball. Allowing over 49 FPPG to opposing primary ball handlers, Washington wasn’t able to defend the position last season, and it may have gotten even worse with Westbrook sliding in here. Moreover, they played at the 7th-fastest pace last season and just added one of the fastest players in the league to their backcourt, making for a great game environment for Simmons.

Coby White ($6,200 FD / $6,500 DK)

We had mentioned Trae Young on the flipside of this matchup just above, and now we go right back to the same matchup – but at a much more affordable price tag on both sites. Not only are both Kris Dunn and Shaquille Harrison off the roster, but Tomas Satoransky is questionable due to COVID protocols and has only practiced once with no preseason action. The White/Lavine backcourt set fire to the NBA during the preseason, and they are both the present, and the future of the Bulls. White’s opposing matchup, Trae Young, lead the league in turnovers last season at 4.8 per game and will give White ample opportunity for steals and buckets in transition.

Dejounte Murray ($6,200 FD / $5,600 DK)

With Derrick White ruled out for this contest due to a toe injury, Dejounte Murray should get the majority of run at the point guard position for the Spurs. Playing at the 6th-fastest pace in the NBA last season, not only is Murray facing a Memphis team that he can take advantage of in transition, but his individual matchup is also juicy versus Ja Morant, who was one of the worst defenders in the league DVP at the point guard position.

DK bonus play: Jeff Teague ($4,000)

Shooting Guards

James Harden ($10,800 FD / $10,400 DK)

The Beard drew a ton of criticism in the offseason for demanding a trade, showing up to camp late and out of shape, and simply not seeming committed to Houston. Yet, here we are, as he suits up for his Rockets coming off a season averaging 34.3/6.6/7.5 in 68 appearances and an absurd 36.3% usage rate. You locked him every time Westbrook was out, well get used to it, because he’s in Washington now.

Devin Booker ($8,400 FD / $8,900 DK)

Look no further than the young stud facing Luka Doncic when lining up a game stack on tonight’s NBA slate. Devin Booker is set to hit the court with new running mate, Chris Paul, and will benefit greatly from a hybrid role of primary ball handler when CP3 is off the court, and as a spot-up shooter playing off-ball when he is on the court. Dallas fared well against 2-guards last season, allowing an average of 41 FPPG, but Devin Booker is simply different on the offensive end and the Mavs defense takes a hit with KP out.

Donovan Mitchell ($8,100 FD / $8,000 DK)

One of the breakouts in the NBA bubble last season, Donovan Mitchell is fresh off a max contract extension and ready to take the next step. In a game versus the Trail Blazers that has a 227.5 over/under and a 1.5 spread, Vegas knows this one will be close and dominated by the star power in the matchup. Mitchell, who will be seeing a ton of CJ McCollum, has a glorious matchup versus a backcourt who allowed over 49 FPPG to opposing primary ball handlers. Fast-paced, star power, high over/under, and a tight spread – giddy up.

Zach Lavine ($7,900 FD / $7,900 DK)

Known as a high-flying slasher, Zach Lavine has drastically improved his shooting in the offseason and is another key component of our Atlanta Hawks/Chicago Bulls game stack. You can play him solo or with Coby White, as the two are set to combine for over 50% of the usage on the offensive end; the Hawks were decimated by 2-guards last season, averaging the third-most FPPG against in the NBA and Lavine averaged 21.3/5.7/4/1.7/1 in 3 appearances versus the Hawks last season.

D’Angelo Russell ($7,500 FD / $7,200 DK)

A pure tournament play, the 1-2 punch of DLo and KAT is set to take this Timberwolves team over the hump – or at least try to. Facing a miserable Pistons team, there should be very little defense in this one and the two will be able to run the pick n’ roll fairly easily all night long. His shooting ability gives him the upside we need in tournaments, and he’s essentially coming unowned with everyone around him in the same pricing tier.

Devonte’ Graham ($5,700 FD / $6,400 DK)

With rookie sensation LaMelo Ball now in the backcourt, Devonte’ Graham will have much more room to operate on the offensive end. Sure, we may not see a full 36 of the Ball/Graham duo just yet, but it won’t take long when the Hornets realize what they have in their future backcourt that can be surprisingly effective in a weakened Eastern Conference. Coming off a much-improved season, Graham sees a Cavs backcourt matchup versus Collin Sexton, who is purely offensive, likes to play fast, and is turnover prone. While he won’t be the guy to consistent drop 25, he’ll fill up the sheet nicely here and provide some much-needed value in the mid-range on both Fd and DK.

Small Forwards

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,500 FD / $10,200 DK)

Coming off his second MVP award in the past two seasons, the Greek Freak is set to wreak havoc in the NBA once again. Having signed the largest contract in NBA history and now playing with an improved roster than saw a notable addition in Jrue Holiday, there is not much to say about Giannis – he averages a whopping 1.9 FPPM and is as safe as it gets to getting a floor in NBA DFS and offers a ceiling like no other for tournament play.

Brandon Ingram ($7,300 FD / $8,600 DK)

Last season’s Most Improved Player, BI is overpriced on DK but offers us a great option at a shallow SF position on FD. With the Raptors being a team that often matches the playing the style of their opponents, look for the Pelicans to really push the pace in this one, just as they did all of last season, and for BI to take advantage. He’ll be in tough versus the likes of Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby on the wing, but with Zion drawing so much attention on the offensive end, the arching jumper of BI will be able to provide us with a nice ceiling game should his shot drop early and often.

Tobias Harris ($6,600 FD / $6,200 DK)

One of the games we want exposure to, Tobias Harris finds himself as the cheaper, low-owned pivot to the tandem of Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid. A model of consistency and offering a surprisingly high ceiling on any given night, Harris will be able to thrive in Doc Rivers’ new system of spacing and shooting. With the Wizards struggling versus wings all season long, they give us no reason to believe this will change any time soon, especially with the points Harris can score in transition given the turnover opportunities Westbrook presents on the other end of the ball.

Danilo Gallinari ($5,700 FD / $5,100 DK)

Coming in as the prized acquisition of a tremendous offseason for the Hawks, Gallo is simply too cheap for someone that will be seeing a ton of minutes on the wing. Sure, the frontcourt is a bit crowded now that Clint Capela is healthy and John Collins remains, but Gallo can slot in comfortably at the 3 should the Hawks choose to utilize him in such a fashion. The Bulls will be playing mostly small, so I assume Capela to be the one to take the hit and for Collins to get minutes at the 5, leaving Gallo in a glorious matchup versus Lauri Markkanen.

Larry Nance ($5,100 FD / $5,900 DK)

Filling in for the injured Kevin Love, Larry Nance Jr. is a nice value on FD and great mid-range option on DK today. With KLove off the court, Nance sees a drastic increase in usage, from 15.3% to 23.4% and is currently projecting to play just over 31 minutes. Averaging just over 1.07 FPPM, Nance will be able to take advantage of a miserable Charlotte frontcourt that was decimated by both power forwards and centers last season.

Power Forwards

Pascal Siakam ($8,000 FD / $7,600 DK)

After having a tremendous season just a few months ago, Siakam struggled mightily in the NBA bubble, most notably in the series versus the Celtics which saw the Raptors get eliminated from playoffs. A matchup versus the likes of Zion will be no fun on the defensive end, but on the offensive end, Siakam will be able to take advantage of both him and Ingram with his post/interior play and spin moves.

Domantas Sabonis ($7,800 FD / $7,400 DK)

The most underrated PF in the league in my opinion, Domantas Sabonis was quietly one of the most productive players from an NBA DFS perspective last season. He is always underpriced for his ceiling of 50+ points and gets a nice matchup versus Julius Randle and the Knicks who allow over 48 FPPG to opposing PF.

Zion Williamson ($7,700 FD / $7,500 DK)

The sophomore is set to make waves in his second season; he’s coming in lighter on his feet, in better game shape, and finally healthy. Sure, the wings of Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby will be a tall task, but Zion is pure athleticism and score in many different ways.

Christian Wood ($6,400 FD / $6,300 DK)

Christian Wood could not have landed in a better spot than the Houston Rockets this offseason. Sure, Boogie looked great in preseason and it was unbelievably fun to watch the former Kentucky duo of Cousins/Wall do their thing coming off serious injuries, but Wood will be the primary benefactor when Houston turns to small ball – he can get up and down the court with ease and fits the playing style of Harden and Wall perfectly.

Davis Bertans ($4,700 FD / $5,500 DK)

Bombs away for one of the best 3-point shooters in the league! With Rui Hachimura ruled out for the Wizards, look for Bertans to be getting the majority of the minutes at both the ‘4’ and on the wing.

Centers

Nikola Jokic ($9,700 FD / $9,600 DK)

The best passing big man in the NBA, The Joker has an amazing matchup against Hassan Whiteside and Richaun Holmes tonight. Looking to be in elite form in the preseason, Jokic was dropping near triple-doubles in only 25 minutes of action. He’s a threat beyond the arc, where both Whiteside and Holmes will not venture, and can dominate the post versus two inferior defenders.

Joel Embiid ($9,400 FD / $9,800 DK)

Want to talk about mismatches? I am a big fan of Thomas Bryant – seriously, I think he has a breakout campaign, but man is this going to be tough for him in the post. Bryant is not an outside defender neither and will struggle to get to Embiid when he steps behind the arc and will get beat off the dribble quite a bit to overcompensate. Averaging over 58 FPPG allowed to opposing centers, the Wizards are a defensive disaster as a whole, but the PG and C positions are primary points of attack, and it just so happens that we have Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid together.

Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,400 FD / $9,700 DK)

Playing Detroit in the frontcourt used to be scary – the days of having Greg Monroe, Andre Drummond, and most recently, Christian Wood, are now gone. Enter KAT. A threat from 3, in the post, and one of the best passing big men in the game, KAT gets a Pistons squad that allowed over 55 FPPG to opposing centers and he is finally healthy.

Andre Drummond ($8,400 FD / $8,000 DK)

Much more confident in this play on Opening Night 2.0 considering Kevin Love has already been ruled out, Drum has a legitimate shot for a 20-20 game in his matchup versus Cody Zeller and Bismack Biyombo, who combined to allow over 56 FPPG at the center position last season.

Deandre Ayton ($7,600 FD / $7,300 DK)

With the majority of players flocking to the Doncic/Booker game stack, Ayton is in a great spot for a tournament pivot to get exposure to this game and offers just as high, if not an even higher ceiling than his young teammate in this game. In a matchup versus the likes of Maxi Kleber and Dwight Powell, Ayton has the ability to dominate the post and will see a drastic improvement in offensive efficiency now that he can run the pick ‘n roll with CP3.

Remember to review the projection model and cheat sheet for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays, as well as updates in Discord throughout the day as the news trickles in. You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

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It’s a pleasure to be filling in for our Director of NFL, my Sunday livestream co-host and good friend @StixPicks as he’s out for his bachelor party this weekend – congrats brother, another one bites the dust! If you haven’t done so already this season, make sure to give his NFL DFS Bible a read; it’s never too late to learn the foundations of the weekly challenge that is NFL DFS and take your winnings to the next level.

Before reading this NFL GPP article, I highly suggest reading Adam’s Cash Game Checkdown and Game by Game Breakdown to get ahead of the curve. Players garnering high ownership (aka chalk) will be omitted unless I love them for GPP as well, but this does not mean they are not viable. The plays listed in this article will be the ones that we aim to target for ceiling games; ones that can win us a tournament. As usual, players identified as cash plays are certainly viable, but we’ll be focusing on players that will be both low-owned and that offer a higher ceiling than a high-owned player in the same salary range at their respective position to get ahead of the field. Should a player be mentioned that is projected to be high-owned, it’s simply someone I love too much to avoid in NFL GPPs this week.

If you’re looking for a complete strategy article for NFL DFS, nothing is as complete as Stix’s NFL DFS Bible; it’s important to note the process we follow for GPPs nonetheless without getting into immense detail. Before getting into individual plays, it’s crucial to identify which games we want to target for full game stacks, which games we need a piece of – potentially in every lineup – and which games we can eliminate from the slate altogether. As such, my top stacks are as followed:

1) Tennessee Titans

  • Death, taxes, and Tennessee stacks after Thanksgiving. You may have heard me say this for the past few weeks, but it’s something I truly live by in NFL DFS and certainly in my GPP lineups since last season. Coming in with the highest implied team total on the slate at 30.5, the Titans have a plethora of options in multiple price ranges to take our lineups to the top of the leaderboards.

2) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Coming in just under the Titans by half a point, the Bucs have an implied team total of 30.0 on this slate and have a glorious matchup versus the Vikings defense – or lack thereof. The reason for which I have them ranked above some of the best offenses in the NFL in positions 3-5 is because the Vikings are in a much better position to keep up in this game than other opponents, thus making this a more attractive game stack.

3) Kansas City Chiefs

  • The Chiefs aerial attack is something I want a piece of in a ton of lineups; the combination of Miami’s defense and KC’s non-existent run game with Lev Bell and CEH dealing with questionable illnesses means Mahomes will be throwing a ton to chase the Steelers for that #1 seed in the AFC – and there ain’t no stopping Patty & Co.

4) Green Bay Packers

  • The highest game total on the slate at 55.0 points, the Packers slot in comfortably at #4. I prefer to have the Rodgers/Adams combo or Aaron Jones solo than stack this game – unless D’Andre Swift is confirmed in, whereby I’ll get one of the aforementioned plays with Swift for a mini-stack in a few lineups.

5) Seattle Seahawks

  • One of, if not the best passing attack versus the 32nd-ranked DVOA pass defense in the NFL? Sign me up for a high-priced, low-owned Wilson & Co. stack.

NFL GPP DFS: Week 14 Quarterbacks

1) Ryan Tannehill ($6,700 DK / $7,900 FD): The Jaguars want to lose for a better draft pick and the Titans need this win for the AFC playoff picture. Picking on a bottom-3 pass defense DVOA is no surprise, yet Tanny is not pulling the ownership he deserves.

2) Russell Wilson ($7,900 DK / $9,000 FD): Russ coming in at roughly 5% ownership is simply a joke versus this Jets defense. Yes, the Seahawks can get up early, but if they do, it’s because Russ cooked ’em. With RT Brandon Snell slated to come back, Wilson will have more time to throw the ball, and that’s dangerous for any defense in the NFL.

3) Tom Brady ($6,900 DK / $7,800 FD): The ultimate GPP play, #NoodleSzn. Never thought I’d get here, but Minnesota’s pass defense has been abysmal all season long and the Bucs will look to gain some momentum in their playoff push.

4) Patrick Mahomes ($8,100 DK / $8,900 FD): It’s Patty Mahomes. No explanation is needed, but with Miami stopping their run game fairly easily here, look for Mahomes to sling it for 60 minutes.

5) Aaron Rodgers ($7,500 DK / $9,100 FD): A-Aron in a dome @ Detroit is a recipe for a nuclear slate-breaking performance. This could be an Aaron Jones game, but Rodgers has torched Detroit in their stadium throughout his entire career and has been playing some of the best football he ever has.

NFL GPP DFS: Week 14 Running Backs

1) Derrick Henry ($8,700 DK / $9,600 FD): He rumbled his way to 159 yards and 2 touchdowns versus the Jaguars this time last season and King Henry could be in for revenge after flopping in this matchup earlier this season. December is otherwise known as Derrick Henry month and the power RB faces a Jaguars defense that won’t be able to stop him. Whether or not we stack with Tannehill and Davis or AJB is to be seen, so look for updates in Discord.

2) Aaron Jones ($7,600 DK / $8,700 FD): If you’re not playing the Rodgers/Adams pairing, Aaron Jones is your guy. The upside? He’s proven to crush Detroit — rumbling for 236 on the ground and 3 scores in Week 2. The downside? His snap count remains fairly constant at 66%, but the big play ability is simply undeniable in this matchup.

3) Dalvin Cook ($9,400 DK / $10,200 FD): This is where we begin to spice things up. Facing a stout TB run defense, Dalvin is getting little-to-no ownership on this slate — and that’s a big mistake. No matter whether Mattison was out or not (he is indeed OUT), Dalvin is the guy here and a backup RB changes nothing. Not only is Vita Vea, the Buccaneers’ best run defender, done for the season, but replacement Steve McLendon is also trending to be out as well. I’ve said it since he returned to injury versus GB in Week 8, Minnesota NEEDS Cook; Mike Zimmer is coaching for his job and they’re fighting for a Wildcard playoff spot in the NFC. Quietly being a Top 5 offense in the NFL, Cook saw 38 touches last week with the best part being the fact that he ran 37 (!!!) routes, with his previous season-high being 24.

4) James Robinson ($7,500 DK / $8,000 FD): The Titans defense has been a funnel in past weeks and JRob has been a ROTY candidate after going undrafted. Being on the field for roughly 90% of the team’s offensive snaps, the Jags use JRob in all facets of the game and will rely on him heavily in this contest yet again.

5) Ronald Jones ($6,100 DK / $6,300 FD): Another piece of our TB stack, this play has NOTHING to do with Coach Bruce Arians saying he wants to get him 20+ touches this week. We know the way he is with that, so I’m not hinging this play on a press conference. Rather, Jones is in a smash spot because the Vikings’ one capable run-defender, MLB Eric Kendricks, has been ruled out. After James Robinson just torched them for 23.5 DK points last week, Jones has 30+ upside at a mere 6k on both sites.

Others to Consider:

6) Ezekiel Elliott ($6,600 DK / $7,600 FD): The o-line is still banged up but the Cowboys should roll in this one with Ryan Finley under center for the Bengals. Zeke looked good last week and at a mere $6,600 on DK, it’s a great 1-2 stack with Cowboys D in GPPs since the majority of the field will go to David Montgomery for $100 less.

7) D’Andre Swift ($6,500 DK / $6,900 FD): If he’s healthy, play him. GB’s run D is atrocious and is a spot I constantly target, week-in, week-out. The Lions won’t risk their future RB if he is anything less than 100%, so if he’s in, it’s a smash spot for the kid who has been picking up momentum in his past few starts and someone who can catch the ball as well.

Low-owned value plays

  • Wayne Gallman ($5,700 DK / $6,000 FD)
  • Giovanni Bernard ($5,000 DK / $5,700 FD)

NFL GPP DFS: Week 14 Wide Receivers

1) Davante Adams ($9,300 DK / $9,600 FD): the top wideout in the league needs no explanation for our NFL GPP lineups. Facing a Detroit defense that will be once again without top rookie Jeff Okudah and Desmond Trufant, Adams has ample opportunity to break the slate. He’s pricey, but worth it.

2) DK Metcalf ($8,400 DK / $8,600 FD): He leads the league in all statistical categories when facing 1 on 1 coverage, and there is no stopping the athletic sophomore in this matchup.

 3) Mike Evans ($6,600 DK / $7,300 FD): He only has 14 receptions in his past three games, but he also has 29 targets and 4 touchdowns in that span.

 4) Corey Davis ($5,700 DK / $6,800 FD) & AJ Brown ($7,300 DK / $8,000 FD): It only makes sense to stack our top GPP quaterback with his two top receivers; Corey Davis is having a breakout campaign and is simply too cheap on both sites.

5) Allen Robinson ($6,800 DK / $7,000 FD): With the chalk being David Montgomery, look no further than ARob to get leverage over the field in a matchup versus the awful Vernon Hargreaves. Houston will give Chicago more trouble than anticipated and ARob will be counted on tremendously.

6) Value Plays

  • Mike Williams ($4,700 DK / $6,100 FD)
  • Chad Hansen ($3,900 DK / $5,100 FD)
  • Collin Johnson ($3,600 DK / $5,100 FD)

NFL GPP DFS: Week 14 Tight Ends

1) Travis Kelce ($7,400 DK / $8,200 FD): Although Tyreek Hill is viable in any GPP, his price is too high for his floor in this matchup versus Byron Jones and Xavien Howard. Cue Travis Kelce, who would be a top 5 WR if his statistics translated to the position, for a mere $7,200 at TE.

2) TJ Hockenson ($5,000 DK / $6,000 FD): With Marvin Jones being preoccupied by Jaire Alexander, Hock should see a ton of work down the middle of the field as Detroit chases points all game long.

3) Logan Thomas ($3,300 DK / $5,200 FD): JD McKissic chalk? Logan Thomas value is the pivot. With rookie sensation Antonio Gibson ruled out of this contest, McKissic has a safe floor and seemingly sees 8+ targets — which is great for PPR on DK — but if you need a punt TE, Thomas has to be the guy in this Football Team offense.

4) Noah Fant ($4,100 DK / $5,500 FD): I’d love to play Jerry Jeudy here, but his health worries me. Cue the GPP interest in Noah Fant, who has been Drew Lock’s go-to target in all facets of the game.

NFL GPP DFS: Week 14 DSTs

I typically try to narrow this down to a handful of options but can offer one piece of advice regarding DSTs: do not get cute with it by playing a DST versus the Chiefs simply because they’re minimum price. Do not change a skill-position player, and certainly not a component of your NFL GPP stack just to fit in a DST. Slot in a team that you are comfortable with and remember, a DST selection is like a car; as you drive it off the lot, it begins to lose value; the moment the game begins, your DST is at risk of losing points. Play it smart, but don’t overthink it either.

  1. Seattle Seahawks ($3,000 DK / $5,000 FD)
  2. Dallas Cowboys ($2,400 DK / $3,500 FD)
  3. Carolina Panthers ($2,900 DK / $3,400 FD)

Others to consider

  • KC Chiefs ($3,500 DK / $4,200 FD)
  • LA Chargers ($2,600 DK / $3,700 FD)

Make sure to check out @StixPicks’s AETY projection model here and our cheat sheet for both DraftKings and FanDuel as well. You can find me on the livestream tomorrow morning at 11am EST and in Discord, as well as on Twitter @DFS_Ghost!

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As we await the beginning of the 2021 splits, there is some League of Legends (LoL) action in the DraftKings lobby as LPL teams face off in the NEST tournament. For those that haven’t realized already, this tournament is unranked, meaning teams have been mixing in new starting lineups, using plenty of substitutes, and players we have no seen before – what this means is normal favorites, such as, say, any team versus BLG, is not as automatic in this tournament considering these are scrims; scrims are when these teams get together for unranked matches to prepare for the upcoming split – think of it as not only NBA or NFL preseason, rather it is more as if two teams got together just to play a scrimmage for fun before preseason even begins. There are still big prizes to be won, so let’s get to it:

LoL Matchup #1: EDG (-120 PK) vs FPX (-120 PK)

EDG showed a lot of upside in their last game with strong play from JieJie in the jungle and 0909 controlling mid lane. Unless Crisp plays for FPX, I’ll side with EDG to take down Lwx and co.; EDG holds most of the lane advantages and should be able to ride that out to victory,

Pick: EDG (-120 PK)

LoL Matchup #2: Rogue Warriors (+175) vs Vici Gaming (-250)

Not as much of a surprise to see RW and VG make it to the LoL NEST Finals considering they’re essentially the only times running their projected starting lineups for the upcoming splits; given that most people will likely be on VG and hedge the first game, I prefer to take the upside of RW in team fights, especially Youdang and ZWuji who can hold lane advantages over Aix and iBoy. Whichever side you end up stacking, this is the matchup where your 4-man stack should be coming from.

Pick: RW (+175)

You can find me in the WinDaily Discord chat and on twitter @DFS_Ghost!

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As we await the beginning of the 2021 splits, there is some League of Legends (LoL) action in the DraftKings lobby as LPL teams face off in the NEST tournament. For those that haven’t realized already, this tournament is unranked, meaning teams have been mixing in new starting lineups, using plenty of substitutes, and players we have no seen before – what this means is normal favorites, such as, say, any team versus BLG, is not as automatic in this tournament considering these are scrims; scrims are when these teams get together for unranked matches to prepare for the upcoming split – think of it as not only NBA or NFL preseason, rather it is more as if two teams got together just to play a scrimmage for fun before preseason even begins. There are still big prizes to be won, so let’s get to it:

LoL Matchup #1: Vici Gaming (-450) vs Suning (+300)

PositionVGSN
TOPCubeluuuck
JNGAixView
MIDForgeforse
ADCiBoyAssum
SUPHangowo

The first of two matches is pretty set to me; on a traditional two-game LoL slate, there is always the option to hedge both matches to ensure that at least one of your lineups has the winning combination of series winners. However, if we’re taking a stand, it starts right here with VG defeating the reigning runner-up at the 2020 Worlds. Rolling out the lineup that we should see in this year’s upcoming splits versus a Suning squad that has no regular starters is pretty hard to pass up; Cube is the guy that interests me the most here, as he should have a field day with View in top lane.

Pick: VG (-450)

LoL Matchup #2: Rogue Warriors (+110) vs FunPlux Phoenix (-150)

PositionRWFPX
TOPBoWenXiao7
JNGYoudangYouxin
MIDWumingInsulator
ADCZWujiLwx
SUPLeyShenyi

The second of two matches is where we can get different. Despite being a favorite in this game, we’ve said it time and time again that Vegas odds for eSports are not necessarily as indicative as for traditional sports just yet, and while I thought RNG should not have been a favorite yesterday versus FPX, I don’t think they should be here versus RW. What we saw on Map 1 of 3 from FPX in their series yesterday versus RNG was truly was truly a remarkable comeback – but RW plays much more aggressively than RNG and won’t let that occur versus them here. ZWuji will have his hands full with Lwx, but with Crisp projected to be out with an illness, the bot lane duo of will be able to hold their own and ride out lane advantages in the mid and jungle to victory here. If you’re hedging a game, it’s this one, which should also be your 4-man stack.

Pick: RW (+110)

You can find me in the WinDaily Discord chat and on twitter @DFS_Ghost!

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As we await the beginning of the 2021 splits, there is some League of Legends (LoL) action in the DraftKings lobby as LPL teams face off in the NEST tournament. For those that haven’t realized already, this tournament is unranked, meaning teams have been mixing in new starting lineups, using plenty of substitutes, and players we have no seen before – what this means is normal favorites, such as, say, any team versus BLG, is no as automatic in this tournament considering these are scrims; scrims are when these teams get together for unranked matches to prepare for the upcoming split – think of it as not only NBA or NFL preseason, rather it is more as if two teams got together just to play a scrimmage for fun. There are still big prizes to be won, so let’s get to it:

LoL Matchup #1: RNG (-138) vs FPX (+100)

The first matchup of the slate is a true coin flip. FPX will be without star MID, Doinb, but we’ll see the strong bot lane of FPX with both LWX and Crisp starting. Lele has been surprinsgly active for an RNG side that has fully moved from Betty to GALA at the AD carry position, but I side with FPX in the bot lane. In the mid lane, we all saw what a force Cryin was with eStar, but he is still adjusting to play ever since he rejoined RNG and is a potential sub candidate with Xiaohu stepping aside for this one. Fellow starters New (TOP) and XLB (JNG) take the rift for RNG, while FPX will be without both Tian and a top laner considering both GimGoon and Khan have moved on in free agency. I’ll side with RNG for a 2-1 victory, but will have plenty of FPX due to the combination and upside of the bot lane duo of LWX and Crisp.

RNG: New, XLB, Cryin, GALA, Lele

FPX: xiao7, Youxin, Insulator, LWX, Crisp

LoL Matchup #2: RW (-250) vs LGD Gaming (+175)

This is one game where I will not be having exposure to both sides; RW has starting 4 regular starters religiously throughout the tournament, and nothing has changed here today. With Youdang (JNG), Wuming (MID), ZWuji (ADC) and Ley (SUP) all set to hit the rift for the Warriors, there is no reason to think LGD takes this one other than purely hedging or going for a low owned stack in a large field tournament. Nearing the top of the LPL for consecutive splits in kills per map and deaths per map, RW games are wildly entertaining – and great for DFS. They’re pricey, but well worth the 4-man stack.

Pick: RW (-250)

Starters: BoWen, Youdang, Wuming, ZWuji, Ley

LoL Matchup #3: Team WE (-175) vs EDG (+125)

The third matchup sees another entertaining LPL squad in Team WE taking on EDG. The former will be without their star jungler, beishang, where frigid is projected to start for the favorite. On the flipside, EDG’s lineup remains in question, so make sure to pop in discord for updates. Ultimately, I’ll side with WE here simply because they have the best player on the rift in Jiumeng (ADC) and the formidable bot lane duo he makes with Missing (SUP). While BBD has shown flashes of upside as an AD carry, there’s too much uncertainty in this lineup for me to trust it on such a variable slate – Shanks is the real deal in the mid lane and is the future of the team, so he, along with the bot lane duo mentioned, as the priority for me here.

Pick: Team WE (-175)

Starters: Coten, frigid, Shanks, Jiumeng, Missing

EDG: xiaoxiang, JieJie, ___, BBD, ___

You can find me in the WinDaily Discord chat and on twitter @DFS_Ghost!

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CS:GO Slate Summary: BLAST (11:30am EST)

  • 2 series on DK
  • Best of 3

CS:GO Matchup #1: Team Vitality (-163) vs Complexity (+120)

The first matchup on the CS:GO slate sees two of the best teams in the world who recently just got stronger; Vitality got some much needed help for ZywOo by signing Nivera from Team Heretics, while Complexity made a huge splash with their signing of jks from 100 Thieves after the club folded; while it is unlikely we see Nivera here today, jks will slot in for Complexity, giving them the much needed boost to power their way to the #1 overall ranking. Complexity bans Overpass first at a 58% rate while Vitality bans Train first 96% of the time; neither map should be played here today. Although COM turned to Mirage with their first pick last time out, I think they go with Nuke with their selection this time out, carrying a 47% win-rate and 45% first-pick rate. To counter, Vitality will surely ride their favorite map, Dust2, where they hold a 77% win-rate and select it first 31% of the time. COM will surely want to avoid Inferno, leaving one of Mirage or Vertigo leftover as the potential third map. Although Vitality got the best of COM earlier this month, the addition of jks with his 1.16 K/D and 0.73 kills per round (KPR) to go along with blameF’s absurd 1.30 K/D and 0.75 KPR will be too much for Vitality’s supporting cast. ZywOo is one of, if not the best player in the world, so feel confident in locking him into the majority, if not all of your lineups here despite a predicted losing effort.

Top Plays: ZywOo ($9,400), blameF ($8,600), jks ($7,200), poizon ($5,600), konfig ($6,400)

Top Captains: ZywOo ($14,100), blameF ($12,900), jks ($10,800)

CS:GO Matchup #2: BIG (-350) vs FaZe (+250)

While both Vitality and Complexity made significant additions to their respective CS:GO rosters, the powerhouse that is FaZe just lost their most crucial player in NiKo and will be in tough versus the former #1 ranked team in the world, BIG. If we elimite the teams’ likeliest maps to be banned, Train and Vertigo, respectively, BIG holds the map advantages across the remaining five and should be able to sweep 2-0 here. Although XANTERES has been playing fairly well since BIG took home the DreamHack Open in the summer, his price is fairly steep when I want most of my exposure to blameF and ZywOo in the first matchup. This is still syrsoN’s team, and the team AWPer has the potential to break any slate; at $7,800, he is the premier target to get in this matchup, and although his 1.12 K/D and 0.70 KPR in the last three months are lower than his 6-month 1.18 K/D and 0.72 KPR, the matchup is simply too good to pass up.

Top Plays: syrsoN ($7,800), tabseN ($7,000), XANTERES ($9,000)

Top Captains: syrsoN ($11,700)

You can find me in the WinDaily Discord chat and on twitter @DFS_Ghost!

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Tonight we are back for League Of Legends (LOL). We are in full force with the World Championship! The World Championship is a combination of the best LOL teams in the World playing for that shot at being crowned the best in the World. Now down to FOUR teams and the Semi-Finals, in a very competitiv...

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