Welcome to the Week 14 edition of The Inside Look for the 2021 NFL season. This will be a data driven article and will go under the hood to see if the box scores tell the whole story about what transpired during the weekend. My goal here will be to either calm your nerves about a player that may have underperformed or cause you to rethink some of the spots you may have taken.
Outside of the MNF game we have a pretty good sense of what transpired this past weekend.
Let’s dig in to the data!
Before we dig in to individual player performances I wanted to take a moment to talk about why we focus so heavily on Targets. Targets equal opportunities and in fantasy opportunity more often than creates production. The more targets that a player gets the better chance there is that the player will return on value.
Chris Godwin now has back to back weeks with at least 15 targets. After getting targeted 17 times in week 13 Godwin saw another 15 targets in week 14. And for the second straight week he broke the 100 yard mark. Although it was a third consecutive week where he did not find the end zone, Godwin fantasy owners have to be happy with his level of production. Good ole Tom Brady continues to look his way and you have to think we a match up vs. the Saints next weekend, we’ll see more of the same.
We need to start talking more about Hunter Renfrow. Since their bye in week 8, Renfrow has seen at least 9 targets in all but 1 game. Over the last 2 weeks he’s been targeted 24 times. He now has 3 straight weeks of at least 100 yards and this week he scored his first touchdown since week 10. The man is currently on a mission and is quickly becoming one of Derek Carr’s favorite weapons.
After a little bit of a mid season swoon, Davante Adams is back folks. Coming off the bye Adams exploded for 121 yards yesterday against the bears. He was targeted 13 times, the most targets he’s had since week 9 against the Chiefs. For the second time in 3 three weeks Adams finished the game with 2 touchdowns. Up next week is a big game vs. a Ravens team that is seeing its season spiral out of control.
Opportunity came knocking at Royce Freeman’s door on Sunday. With David Johnson ruled out prior to the game with Covid and Rex Burkhead leaving the game early with an injury, someone had to take snaps next to Davis Mills and that was Royce Freeman.
Freeman more than doubled his season’s worth of targets with 8 on Sunday. Those 8 were more than any other back in the game. He actually did a little bit of work with them as he finished with 6 catches and 51 yards. This will probably be a 1 and done though depending on injuries and Covid protocols.
Devin Singletary was another guy that saw productivity come out of nowhere in terms of receiving. After having been held to just 6 targets between weeks 10 and 13, Singletary was targeted 7 times on Sunday. He also made the most of them as he caught 6 and went for 37 yards. With the Bills seemingly down the entire game, Allen through often and Singletary was a beneficiary of that.
George Kittle is on an extremely impressive run right now. While he didn’t top his week 13 output, he came pretty darn close. After going for 181 yards in week 13, he went for 151 yards yesterday. His 15 targets yesterday were the most he’s seen all year and his 13 catches were also the most. Kittle found the end zone once and now has touchdowns in 5 of his last 6 games. This combo of Garoppolo and Kittle has been a ton of fun to watch.
No Lamar Jackson, no problem for Mark Andrews. He continues to be the main target for whoever is behind center for the Ravens. Andrews’ 11 targets this weekend were the most he’s seen since week 5 against the Colts. His late touchdown almost helped the Ravens come back from what seemed like an insurmountable deficit. The Ravens look to get back on track with a tough assignment next week against the Packers.
Matt Ryan only threw the ball 27 times this weekend, but the majority of those went to non-receivers. Of his 27 passes, 19 went to either running backs or tight ends. He targeted 3 people 6 times each, 2 of which were Patterson and Pitts. The loss of Ridley has really hit the team hard in terms of where to pass. Week in and week out Ryan has been forced to use his running backs and tight ends in the pass game.
Jimmy Garoppolo has a favorite weapon and it’s not even close. Garoppolo threw the ball 37 times on Sunday, with 15 going to Kittle. He was by far the most targeted person in the passing game. The next closest person was Brandon Aiyuk at 11. If it isn’t broken, no need to fix it. Look for that type of game plan to continue in the weeks to come.
When you have a main receiving corps of Chase Claypool and Diontae Johnson, is the really a reason to throw to anyone else? Of Big Ben’s 39 passes on Thursday night, 19 went to the duo of Claypool and Johnson. Only 6 of his passes went to non-receivers. While the Steelers didn’t win on Thursday, it wasn’t due to a lack of offense. This is a game plan that works well for Roethlisberger and it’s something we’ll see often as the season winds down.
For the first time in weeks we got to see a healthy Alvin Kamara. Boy was it fun to watch. Kamara carried the ball 27 times in week 14 and was extremely successful. For the first time since week 4 against the Giants, Kamara broke the 100 yard mark. His 27 carries were also the most he’s had all year. The stars aligned for Kamara this week as he got to face the Jets and his back up running back was out due to covid. Next week he gets a much tougher assignment in the Buccaneers.
After sitting out week 13 with a shoulder injury, Dalvin Cook came back with vengeance in week 14. Playing in a prime time game against the Steelers, Cook showed off a skillset only a few have. He carried the Vikings offense with 205 yards on the ground with 2 touchdowns. Cook had season highs in every aspect of his game. Most carries, most yards, and most touchdowns. He should wear that shoulder harness more often.
The ‘Playbook’ as I like to call it shows a breakdown of the play splits that teams used this past weekend.
With the Eagles on a bye in week 14 we’ll need to find another team to talk about. With Taysom Hill behind center and having an injured finger on his throwing hand, the Saints went with a run heavy offense. They ran the ball almost 70% of the time this weekend. While the Jets have many weaknesses, the run defense is one of the biggest. The Saints finished with 44 run plays and over 200 yards rushing with 3 touchdowns.
The Jaguars are a mess. There’s no other way to put it. They were down seemingly from the start of the game. With Meyer refusing to use his star running back, Trevor Lawrence was forced to throw the ball more than 80% of the time on Sunday. He threw the ball 40 times. You would think that many passes you’d have a respectable final line. Nope, Lawrence finished with only 221 yards and 4 INT’s. Urban Meyer, if you’re reading this: Give. The. Ball. To. James. Robinson
Week 14 was another fun weekend of football. We saw some solid performances from people we’ve come to expect, Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, and George Kittle. And some we normally wouldn’t expect it from, Rashaad Penny, Rashod Bateman, and Brandon Cooks. Make sure to use our
Don’t forget to check out our projection models and cheat sheets which will be updated throughout the week.
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Welcome to my preview for the Championship Sunday DFS slate. I will be covering value and punt plays, favorite stacks, and my contrarian plays for all four games this weekend. Are you ready for some playoff DFS action? All prices discussed are via DraftKings and FanDuel (DraftKings Price/FanDuel Price).
The first thing about this game is the total movement from the open because the spread has stayed steady at 7.5. It started at 51 in total and is up to 53 since the lines were released. Via TeamRankings.com since the start of the 2014 NFL season, there have been 76 games with over/under lines between 52 and 54. In these games:
Worth noting as well for the Titans they are playing their fourth-straight road game. History has not been kind to teams playing four consecutive road games and there is a reason why the regular-season schedule does not create situations where teams are forced to play four road games in a row.
It should come to no surprise that in games that the total exceeds 51 or more points Patrick Mahomes ($7,700/$9,500), puts on an absolute clinic. Before the divisional playoff game (when he scored 40-plus), Mahomes’ splits can be seen in the tweet below. He is clearly the best quarterback on the two-game slate, but that is why he is the most expensive. The Titans finished the regular season allowing the sixth-most fantasy points over the last four weeks to quarterbacks.
As for Ryan Tannehill ($5,500/$7,700), he has the tall task of going up versus the Chiefs defense that during the last four weeks of the season allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. The best approach in deploying Tannehill on this slate would be to play him in lineups that do not feature the Titans being able to run the ball effectively and are forced to play catch-up versus the Chiefs offense. Tannehill back in Week 10 did score over 19 fantasy points when he completed just 13 passes. However, the home/road splits for Tannehill still are always concerning so on the road in an extremely tough environment I do not see myself rostering too much Tannehill considering Jimmy Garroppolo ($5,200/$7,600) is in a better spot and is cheaper on both sites.
The one thing to consider is Tannehill is he probably is the only quarterback that I would consider playing naked. Tannehill has averaged five rushing attempts per game over his last three starts. Also, the Chiefs will be without Juan Thornhill and likely pass-rusher Chris Jones which makes Tannehill much more appealing.
For defenses overall on this slate the Chiefs ($3,100/$4,400) are the most expensive on DraftKings and second most expensive on FanDuel. They are worth paying up for in GPPs and could see suppressed ownership with Mahomes being heavily owned. If the Titans fall behind early, Tannehill could get sacked a ton – 31% of pressures on Tannehill result in sacks. That the highest rate among the league’s starters.
The Titans are dirt-cheap at $2,000 on DraftKings and honestly, for that reason, they become a viable option. Also, it only takes one turnover for their DST to be a factor and over the past two weeks, they have had a DST score. Most people avoid stacking their quarterback versus the DST they are playing, but in this case, it could make sense; play Mahomes and the Tennesse DST on DraftKings to save the salary.
Damien Williams ($7,000/$7,600) is the second-most expensive running back on the slate on DraftKings but is cheaper than Aaron Jones on FanDuel. W do not get the price discount this week with Williams but of all the Chiefs skill players, he has the most projectable role. Not to mention during the regular season the Titans allowed the third-most receptions to backs. He probably will not score three touchdowns again, but the Titans did allow the fifth-most rushing touchdowns to running backs over the regular season. We have seen the Chiefs rely on Williams in the postseason in the past, so I am confident going back to him as the lead running back on the team with the highest implied team total (30.25).
As for Derrick Henry ($8,700/$9,800), well we all know the story of his production by now. I have faded Henry over the last few weeks and that was against even better run defenses in the Patriots and Ravens. The Chiefs allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to backs over the 2019 regular season. If the Titans are to win this game it will be on the shoulders or QUADs of Henry. You cannot full-on fade him in this spot, even at his price. Teams know they have to stop Henry and up to this point, nobody has been able to execute. In 2019 including the playoffs Henry vs stacked boxes ranks first in attempts, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns.
The Tennesse Titans are the worst team in the NFL this season versus 12 personnel, which according to SharpFootball Stats in that formation they are allowing 8.8 yards per attempt and a 57% success rate from passes in that formation. Kansas City ranks top five in terms of pass-rate from 12 personnel. This is consistent with the Titans’ defense being weak versus tight ends in terms of fantasy points allowed. They allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to the position and third-most receiving touchdowns during the regular season. So yes wheels are indeed up for Travis Kelce ($7,100/$7,800).
Blake Bell ($2,800/$4,000) also becomes an interesting punt play if Kelce is limited at all by his injury. Bell ran 15 routes last week and had two targets. As for the Tennessee tight ends, it’s extremely tough to trust any of them in this spot this week, but Jonnu Smith ($3,400/$5,600) could end up being a not only a value but a great leverage play if the two elite tight ends on the slate do not fire. Smith leads the NFL in yards after the catch per target per @Rotounderworld. He also leads the Titans in targets over the past two weeks.
As for the wide receiver position, Tyreek Hill ($7,200/$7,400) seemingly has the highest ceiling of any player on the slate. Hill sees time from the slot and Logan Ryan has been beaten badly by speed guys this season. Also, we saw the speedy Marquise Brown have a super productive day versus this secondary just one week ago. Last week I wanted to be overweight on Kelce, but I think this week is the week to be overweight on Hill. Hill is cheaper than Davante Adams ($7,900/$8,300) on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Via Arrowheadpride.com “The Titans have struggled to defend elite receiving weapons. The last time they saw one was in Week 16 against the New Orleans Saints. Wide receiver Michael Thomas finished with 136 yards on 12 catches and a score. The week before, Tennessee allowed Texans’ Deandre Hopkins to rack up 119 yards on six receptions. The back half of their schedule did not feature many elite passing offenses — but they lost in the two matchups where they faced one after the Chiefs.”
As for the value receiver on the Chiefs, I am putting my stamp of approval on Mecole Hardman ($3,800/$4,900). Hardman does not see a ton of snaps, (just eight routes ran last week), but he had four targets. When he is on the field the Chiefs are looking for ways to get him the ball. The last time he played the Titans he scored a 63-yard touchdown. The NFL’s Next Gen Stats showed Hardman reached a top speed of 21.85 mph on his return last Saturday and said no NFL ball carrier has had more touches than topped 21.5 mph than Hardman. He is the target in GPPs, while in cash formats, I am fine going with Sammy Watkins ($4,600/$5,200).
On the side of the Titans A.J. Brown ($5,200)/($6,800) will probably be a pretty popular option in GPPs, but the matchup is extremely tough. The Chiefs rank second-best versus the position during the regular season (only the Patriots were better). At his price, he is someone I am definitely looking to fade. I prefer both slot options for the Titans in receivers Tajae Sharpe ($3,100/$4,700) and Adam Humphries ($3,000/$5,000). If Humphries plays I favor him, and obviously if he misses I want to move to Sharpe. The biggest games that the Chiefs have allowed have primarily been to slot receivers.
In this game, the total has moved up from 45 to 46.5. The spread has bounced around anywhere between 6.5-7.5. Historically, since the start of the 2014 NFL season, there have been 220 games where the closing line favored the home team by 6.5 to 8.5 points. In these games:
Aaron Rodgers ($6,100/$8,000) has been one of the most matchup dependent quarterbacks this season. Against a much healthier 49ers defense who has allowed the lowest yards per pass attempt this season overall (5.2) and at home (4.5), it is hard to confidently project a ceiling game from him. I think if you wanted to get contrarian at quarterback you roster Garoppolo. He is the cheapest QB on both sites and showed back in Week 12 versus the Packers he can be extremely efficient. He only completed 14 passes in that game, but still threw for 250 yards and two touchdowns.
Assuming that this game is slightly more competitive than that first matchup, 300 yards and three touchdowns from Jimmy G is not that far out of reach. The 49ers averaged 30 passing attempts per game at home this season, and he has yet to hit that threshold over his last three contests.
I do also think that the Packers DST ($2,400/$4,000) is the safest pay-down option on both sites. They are a ton of playmakers across the Green Bay defense that include Za’Darius Smith, Preston Smith, and Kenny Clark. They all can cause stress to offenses. I am not trying to play the 49ers DST ($2,900/$4,600) especially on FanDuel where they are the most expensive. Green Bay was second in fewest giveaways per game in 2019.
After his big game last week the price on Tevin Coleman ($5,700/$6,500) has gone way back up. But keep in mind that his 22 carries were the highest of his career. The matchup is extremely juicy versus a terrible Packers’ run defense that ranked 23rd in rushing DVOA during the regular season with the second-worst defensive line in the league, yielding 4.96 adjusted yards per attempt. Still, it is important to note that it was the touchdowns that elevated Coleman, while Raheem Mostert ($4,300/$5,800) still saw 12 carries.
Mostert’s price on DraftKings is very low making him a considerable cash game option. I would advise in GPPs to have some exposure to Matt Breida ($3,400/$5,000) because he has that rare big-play ability and if he makes the most of his touches hr could get the hot-hand approach from the head coach. The 49ers backfield is an ambiguous one for sure and cracking this case will surely lead to a big GPP win as we saw last week with Coleman’s performance.
There is not a lot of injury news when it comes to this slate specifically, but one thing to note is the Packers are coming in extremely healthy. The only players coming in questionable are fullback Danny Vitale and cornerback Tramon Williams. The return of Vitale could potentially be huge for running back Aaron Jones ($6,700/$7,800). The Packers this season have a 51% success rate when running from 21-personnel averaging 4.9 yards per attempt. I think if Vitale plays that could be a significant boost to the Packers rushing attack.
Also, it needs to be said that in the previous matchup where Jones was limited to just 38 yards on 13 carries, that was when DJ Jones was still playing for SF. He went on IR after Week 14. Weeks 15-17 the 49ers allowed a 58% success rate and 4.8 yards per carry from 12 personnel. With more tight ends and the potential for a fullback look for the Packers to go big to run the football to limit the 49ers’ pass rush.
Additionally, I think that leveraging the late-game swap with a guy like Jamaal Williams ($3,800/$4,800) will be extremely important. Williams scored 15 fantasy points the last time these two teams faced and he had a season-high eight targets and seven receptions in the passing game. Rodgers has made a note of how important chemistry is entering this playoff game and he does have a solid rapport with Williams. When targeting Williams Rodgers has a 129.4 passer rating with a 90% completion percentage. If the Packers are trailing in this game, as the spread would project we could see more Williams assist with pass protection and play more third-downs.
Tyler Ervin ($3,100/$4,700) is mostly a punt play but is returning kicks and punts for Green Bay so I like the GPP stack with the Packers DST. Ervin has 4.41 speed and it’s a college homecoming from the former San Jose State Spartan. The pre-snap motion could be integral to Matt LaFleur’s gameplan, and Ervin has become LaFleur’s go-to motion man over the past several weeks.
One of the biggest weaknesses of the Green Bay defense is defending against passes in-between the numbers. According to Sharp Football Stats over the second half of the season, passes in-between the numbers had a 56% success rate. Outside the numbers drop down to 41%. On the season the 49ers throw between the numbers 64% of the time, which is the most in the NFL. Expect for the 49ers to expose this matchup with a bounce-back effort from George Kittle ($5,800)/($7,000). The last time played Green Bay he went for over 125 yards and a score. His price is way too low. Emmanuel Sanders ($4,900)/($5,500) is still leading the receiver group from the slot position so he would be the favorite 49ers receiver to target in this spot, but both Deebo Samuel ($5,500)/$6,300) and Kendrick Bourne ($4,200)/($5,400) also have seen decent work from the slot over the past two weeks.
There are definitely trust issues between the lower-end wide receivers for the Packers and the coaching staff. After Allen Lazard ($4,400/$5,100) left last week’s game you would have expected another receiver to take his place right? Nope, the Packers instead opted to use more 13 personnel with no wide receiver outside of Adams seeing more than one target. With Lazard off the injury report, all of these fringy sub-4k Green Bay receivers should be faded for the most part. Jake Kumerow ($3,200/$4,700) is dirt-cheap on DraftKings and ran the second-most routes of any receiver on the Packers.
Adams is not an absolute lock to smash coming off his best game of the season. The last time he came off a 30-point game he finished with just 11.1 fantasy points the next week. Adams had just 43 receiving yards the last time he played SF but salvaged the day with a touchdown. As I mentioned the Packers used more three-tight end sets so Jace Sternberger ($2,500)/($4,000) (season-high 36 snaps last week) possesses explosiveness and his 44% snap share was higher than Jimmy Graham and Robert Tonyan. Sternberger wears 87 so perhaps Rodgers thinks he is throwing to Jordy Nelson.
It’s time for our Week 15 DFS recommendations for the Sunday main slate. I’m focusing on tight ends (TEs) and defenses (DSTs) that will help you win!
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FD($7,200) DK ($6,200)
Kittle is the number one fantasy TE this week in cash games, and he’s viable in GPPs too, given his upside. With 60-754-4 on the season and averaging six receptions and 90.3 yards per game over his last four games, it’s obvious that Jimmy G loves him — and he’s what you’re looking for as your top TE in cash games.
FD($6,200) DK ($5,500)
Waller had 6-72-0 and a fumble last week but remains DerekCarr’s top target. He’s a cash game staple every week but hasn’t broken out fora monster game in a while. The price is still very affordable.
FD($7,300) DK ($6,500)
Kelce isn’t cheap, but he brings massive upsideto the table and is essentially matchup-proof because of the many ways Patrick Mahomescan get him the ball. He’s a consensus Top 3 fantasy TE every week, and becausehe’s expensive he usually doesn’t draw too much ownership in GPPs.
FD($6,700) DK ($6,000)
The price has jumped up on both sites, mainly because ofhis big game in Week 14 and the injury to Alshon Jeffery, but we still mustconsider Ertz as a GPP play, especially facing the Redskins. He had 5-54-0 inWeek 1 against them, but I think he’ll find the end zone this time around.
FD($6,200) DK ($5,000)
We saw Jared Cook score two big TDs early last week againstthe 49ers, so I’m not counting out Hooper despite the difficult matchup on paper.With Calvin Ridley out of commission and this likely to be a negative game scriptfor the Falcons, I can see Hooper drawing 8-10 targets or more. The price hasdropped too.
FD ($5,700) DK ($3,900)
Higbeeshould be a popular target for Jared Goff this week facing the Cowboys, whohave a banged up linebacking corps and will struggle in covering the middle of thefield. We’ve seen two huge games in a row (7-107-1 and 7-116-0) and Higbee isstill a great bargain at just $3,900 on DK.
FD($5,700) DK ($3,500)
Howard gets a decent matchup against the Lions and could seeextra volume with Mike Evans (hamstring) done for the rest of the season. He doesn’thave the upside of the top TEs, but 10-15 DK points for $3,500 could work – andthe chances of him catching a TD really go up without Evans on the field.
FD ($5,300) DK ($3,100)
The pricing on FD is fair, but Thomas is still a massivebargain on DK, where he’s just $3,100.The matchup is a good one, as the Seahawkshave struggled to contain TEs this season, and we saw last week how much KyleAllen relies on Thomas without Greg Olsen.
HunterHenry, LAC vs. MIN (FD $6,400, DK $5,200) – Risky and expensive GPP play
NoahFant, DEN at KC (FD $5,700, DK $4,100) – GPP only (He’s playing)
DallasGoedert, PHI at WAS (FD $5,700, DK $4,300) – GPP only
FD($5,000) DK ($4,000)
The Patriots might havea little extra steam in their engines this week after the scandalous film crewinvestigation, and there’s no arguing this is a talented unit who can dominateagainst bad teams – the Bengals included.
FD($4,900) DK ($3,400)
The Eagles defenseshould be up to the task against a Redskins team just scraping through the lastfew games of 2019. This one could get ugly, even if the Eagles offense doesn’t clicklike it should.
FD($4,500) DK ($3,800)
You’re getting a discount on FD and the Falcons are not the offensivejuggernaut that the Saints are. I’m not worried about a repeat of last week,and I’ll be locking the 49ers into a lot of my GPP entries.
FD($4,200) DK ($3,000)
We saw what they did against the Bears in Week1, and I’m not convinced Mitch
Trubisky isn’t dreading the kind of pressure thePackers DST can bring. The price is more than fair on both sites for the upsidethis team brings.
FD($3,600) DK ($2,900)
The Rams are a huge bargain this week against aDallas Cowboys team that seems to have given up. I wouldn’t be playing them in cashgams, but I’m fine with shares in GPPs because the Cowboys may not have a planfor Aaron Donald and these greedy, aggressive corners.
FD($3,700) DK ($2,600)
This is about as low as I’d like to go in GPPs, but the reality ofthe Giants woes makes the Dolphins a unit we have to consider. It’s a team thatcontinues to get better and Eli Manning and the Giants aren’t really playingfor anything but their pride.
It’s time for our Week 14 DFS recommendations for the Sunday main slate. I’m focusing on tight ends (TEs) and defenses (DSTs) that will help you win!
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FD ($6,700) DK ($5,900)
The high-price tight ends haven’t been as reliable as we’d like and Kittle is coming off a disappointing performance against the Ravens, but he’s a lock-n-load cash game play this week facing the Saints indoors. If you’re not looking for value, I’m fine using big George here.
FD ($6,200) DK ($5,800)
With Josh Jacobs a true game-time decision, I’ll be snaggingadditional shares of Waller as his usage should probably increase in Week 14. Thebig TE caught 7-100-0 on nine targets last week vs. the Chiefs, and he’s a goodcash game play again facing the Titans.
FD($6,300) DK ($4,600)
Doyle is a solid play in all formats this week though hisprice has come up substantially after a big Wek 13 performance (6-73-1 on 11 targets).He’s worth considering for cash games and GPPs.
FD($7,100) DK ($6,200)
We’re getting a huge price break on Kelce thisweek on DK, but he remains the top priced TE on both sites. As consistent asany tight end in football, but he’s relegated to GPP-only this week against thePatriots.
FD ($6,400) DK ($5,100)
Henry was a disaster last week but is in a good bounce-backspot facing the Jaguars in Week 14. Even after the stinker in Denver, he’saveraging around 62 receiving yards per game – so I’m willing to give himanother shot in GPPs in Week 14.
FD ($6,600) DK ($5,600)
Andrews is somewhatmatchup proof and did well against the top-rated defense against TEs last week,so we should have shares of him in GPPs. He’s facing the Bills this time around,and they’ve done a good job defending TEs.
FD ($6,600) DK ($6,000)
Hooper doesn’t have an injury designation and returns froma three-game absence, and we’re hoping he’ll continue his breakout season. TheFalcons also get Julio Jones back, so I’m looking at Hooper in GPP only. Thisgame could get pretty high-scoring.
FD($5,600) DK ($4,100)
We discussed how Griffin isn’t a lock-and-load value playanymore, but now he’s questionable with an illness that limited him in practiceon Thursday and Friday. He has a good matchup against the Dolphins if he suitsup and isn’t facing a snap count.
FD ($5,800) DK ($4,300)
McDonaldmakes the value play list this week because of the matchup against the Cards,who just cannot stop TEs. He’s been quiet lately, but the Steelers need to getoffense from somewhere in this game, and McDonald is a low-risk optionconsidering the price and the opponent.
FD($5,400) DK ($4,000)
Gesickijust keeps producing, and $4K is still too cheap for what he brings to thetable. The Jets defense is a wreck right now and the Miami offense has beenclicking. Get Gesicki in there if you need salary relief.
FD ($4,800) DK ($4,400)
Rudolph is a top value play this week facing the Lions, andhe has at least four catches in his last three games. That sounds even betterwhen you factor in his red zone usage – as he’s scored five TDs in his lastfour contests.
IanThomas, CAR at ATL (FD $4,000, DK $2,500) – Punt Cash or GPP (He’s this week’sTyler Higbee)
JaredCook, NO vs. SF (FD $6,500, DK $4,200) – GPP only in tough matchup
DavidNjoku, CLE vs. CIN (FD $4,900, DK $3,500) – Risky GPP but high upside
FD($5,000) DK ($4,000)
The Packers have themost favorable matchup of the week (at home vs. WAS) and are an option in allformats. They aren’t cheap, but if you’re spending up, just plug them in.
FD($4,300) DK ($3,500)
The Steelers DST isstill way to cheap and you get a nice discount on both sites. This unit is almosta lock for 10 points every week.
FD ($4,800) DK ($3,800)
This isn’t a high-scoring defense, but the matchup could yield 10+points if they can create some turnovers. If the Vikings can salt this one awaywith the running game, it’ll help the cause of the DST.
FD($4,600) DK ($3,600)
Andy Dalton is back for the Bengals, but I don’tthink he’ll be having a lot of fun against the bruising Browns unit that stompedthe Steelers a couple weeks ago.
FD($4,600) DK ($2,800)
Probably a DK play only.It’s risky because they are on the road, but the matchup in Jacksonville couldsee the Chargers DST notching their best week since Week 5 against the Broncos.
FD($4,000) DK ($2,400) Last week we had the Jags againstthe Bucs, and that wasn’t even a mistake despite the Jags taking the loss. TheColts are a similar risk but this matchup bodes well for GPPs.
It’s time for our Week 13 DFS recommendations for the Sunday main slate, focusing on tight ends (TEs) and defenses (DSTs) that will help you win big!
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FD($7,100) DK ($7,200)
Weather is playing a key role in a few games this week, with cold rain being the main culprit. It’s going to be about 35 degrees in KC with no precipitation in the forecast, so I’m perfectly fine rolling with Kelce and his 8-10 targets as my main cash gameplay. He’s coming off his best game since Week 2.
FD($6,100) DK ($5,500)
Waller is cheaper than Kelce and doesn’t have quite the flooror upside, but he’s still worth a look in all formats if you need the savingsat TE. It’s frustrating to see Waller without much red-zone volume and justthree TDs on the season, but he should be more involved against the Chiefs inWeek 13.
FD($7,000) DK ($6,100)
Kittle isn’t listed on the injury report but is reportedly dealing with a bone chip in his ankle – which could make him a little uncomfortable moving forward. But he returned from a two-game absence with a huge Week 12 (6-129-1 against the Packers). Sunday’s road matchup with the Ravens is a tougher draw and the weather in Baltimore projects to be a cold rain. He’s a GPP play only this week but still has an upside.
FD($6,600) DK ($5,800)
Henry is coming off a Week 12 bye and should have his usualshare of looks (54 targets in seven games this season) against the Broncos inMile High. He’s averaging an excellent 70 receiving yards per game, making himone of the more reliable tight ends in fantasy and a solid GPP play in Week 13.
FD($6,500) DK ($5,700)
Andrews is in the sameboat as Kittle this week with regard to the game conditions and the difficultmatchup, but he’s a little bit cheaper. He’s a talented player and way too goodto fade completely, but my shares will be slightly diminished this week andthere are a few guys I like better.
FD($6,900) DK ($6,700)
Ertz (hamstring) was a limited participant in Friday’spractice and could always miss this game, but the Eagles are optimistic he’llplay. Goedert would see a huge increase in snaps and volume if Ertz is inactiveagainst Miami, but Ertz is worth rolling out in some GPPs if he’s good to go.
FD($5,200) DK ($4,100)
Goedert could be an even better option if Zach Ertz misses,but he’s a fine enough play even with the Eagles No. 1 TE available. You’regetting a huge discount on both sites, however, if Ertz is inactive – so he’sbound to get chalky in GPPs and could make a fine enough cash play.
FD($5,600) DK ($4,200)
Griffin isn’t a lock-and-load value play anymore, but he’ stillGPP-viable and gets a great matchup against the Bengals. He’s now up to28-282-5 on the season, with most of that production coming after his Week 6breakout against the Cowboys.
FD($5,100) DK ($4,400)
Olsen is easy to forget in this week’s list of availableTEs in the main slate, but he’s up to 68 targets this season and has now hauledin at least five passes in three straight games. In Week 13 he faces a Redskinsdefense that’s allowed the eighth-most passing touchdowns this season – so he’sworth considering for GPPs.
FD($5,000) DK ($3,400)
Gesickibroke through with his first TD of 2019 in Week 12 and should get a handful oftargets this week against the Eagles. He’s still pretty cheap on both sites.
FD($5,500) DK ($2,500)
Higbee will be Jared Goff’s main TE on Sunday with GeraldEverett out for Week 13. He saw six targets last week against the Ravens and hasnow played 70 percent of the Rams’ offensive snaps the past two weeks – a ratethat should increase in Arizona.
JimmyGraham, GB at NYG (FD $5,800, DK $3,800) – GPP
JonnuSmith, TEN vs. JAC (FD $5,300, DK $3,300) – GPP (If Walker sits)
NoahFant, DEN vs. LAC (FD $5,100, DK $3,700) – GPP
TylerEifert, CIN vs. NYJ (FD $4,700, DK $2,800) – GPP
FD($3,700) DK ($3,500)
The Steelers DST pricing is all messed up on FD, so they’re the easy pick for top DST on that site this week, even against a team that gave them fits (and hits!) a couple of weeks ago. I might look elsewhere in DK, but the discount is just too significant on FD to pass up.
FD($5,000) DK ($3,600)
The Eagles are usually GPP-only but are decent cash gameplay this week facing the Dolphins, especially considering how well they did against the dangerous Seahawks last week. They’re expensive on FD but you get a discount on DK.
FD($4,900) DK ($3,700)
Jets fans know that you should never get too comfortable with theJets defense, and that heartache is just around the corner. While I’d love toinclude this unit in my cash game recommendations, it’s just too risky.
FD($4,700) DK ($3,800)
The Panthers defense has its problems, so they’renot really viable in cash games – but this is a fine enough matchup for GPPsand the Redskins offense is an excellent one to pick on.
FD($4,600) DK ($3,600)
This game could get interesting.Cold rains are an awful weather component for football, and Daniel Jones hasbeen known to fumble. The Packers are a sneaky good play this week against theGiants, though their struggles against the run should limit your ownership toGPPs.
FD($4,400) DK ($3,300)
The Jags make an excellent play this week at home vs. the Bucs – ateam that turns the ball over frequently and doesn’t have a very dynamicrunning game. They’re on my list of bargain options.
FD($4,100) DK ($3,200)
The Rams DST turned in areal stinker last week against the Ravens, but the matchup this week is muchmore favorable, and they had scored 58 DK points total over the past four weeksbefore the negative performance in Week 12. Expect Aaron Donald and the rest ofthis unit to give Kyler Murray some trouble.
Also consider: Colts,Browns
As we approach the second half of Week 13, keep in mind that although there are many injuries across the league, there is only a handful that impacts DFS significantly (i.e. Adam Thielen, Zach Ertz). It will be critical to staying up to date on these injuries to help make fade/play decisions so check back with me for more information as the weekend unfolds. With that said I’ll get into the Week 13 Injury Fades/Plays. Keep in mind that all of the following prices are from DraftKings.
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Zach Ertz ($6,700)
Ertz did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday before getting in a limited practice on Friday due to a hamstring injury from last week. Despite the fact that Dallas Goedert ($4,100) was optimistic Ertz would play, the general feel from the collection of reports is less rosy. This will be a true game-time decision this week making him a fade in cash for me on Sunday despite a smash spot against Miami. Ertz is at risk for missing time or if he plays, re-aggravating the injury. Pivoting to Goedert is the obvious over-owned play here, so instead look to teammate Miles Sanders ($5,400) in the showdown slates. Sanders will likely pick up the leftover volume in Ertz’s absence. If you’re playing the Thursday to Sunday slate and were going to pay up for tight end anyway, look at Travis Kelce ($7,200) who over the last three games against the Raiders has three touchdowns, over 20 receptions, and more than 300 receiving yards.
Update: The reports are that Ertz is “pushing to play” which does not give us any more comfort in his utilization or effectiveness. It also does not detract from his risk of re-aggravation. He’s still a fade in cash games. Goedert and the tight ends I mention above are cash plays in Ertz’ absence
Gerald Everett ($4,600)
Everett has been dealing with wrist and knee injuries for a couple of weeks now and will not play on Sunday. This coincides perfectly with a matchup against the Cardinals who are bad at defending the pass and especially bad at defending the tight end.
*Enter Tyler Higbee*
Higbee is nothing special from a talent perspective, but he soaks up enough targets even with Everett active to warrant cash game consideration this week. At $2,500 he could run an incorrect route and return value on accident. Higbee also gives you massive savings to jam in players you want this week.
Damien Williams ($4,800)
Williams has an injury to his ribs which can be extremely painful, so he’s going to sit this one out. Teammates LeSean McCoy ($4,800) and Darrel Williams ($4,400) will look to hold down the backfield in his absence, but I’m not particularly interested in either as Andy Reid has made this backfield a nightmare for DFS players. Instead, I’m pivoting away from this game and looking at Miles Sanders again who is likely to be very involved as the 1. A. running back in a matchup where the Eagles should be in control.
Adam Thielen ($7,000)
It’s not often that players are hesitant to discuss their game status, but that’s exactly what we got from Thielen on Friday. His interview with reporters essentially amounted to Thielen saying “we’ll see” in response to the question of whether he would play or not on Sunday. This is an injury red flag if I’ve ever seen one. DFS players should make lineups without Thielen in it. Even if he’s active, he’s a serious risk for re-injury as we saw happen a few weeks ago. This means you can continue to roll with Stefon Diggs ($7,400) against this uninspiring Seattle secondary that will also now be without pass rusher Jadeveon Clowney.
Tyler Lockett ($7,200)
My favorite receiver can’t catch a break. Following the scary injury to his shin, Lockett was downgraded to “did not practice” on Friday due to an illness. This isn’t great as a stomach bug can cause fatigue and dehydration for a few days after the worst of it subsides. If it’s the flu virus, Lockett could be dealing with those same symptoms but at an amplified level. Lockett is a fade for me in cash and I’m watching his status for Monday night closely. Look at D.K. Metcalf ($6,100) in tournaments to once again fill the void, but this Minnesota defense is nothing to mess with.
Update: Pete Carroll said that all players listed with an illness, including Lockett, will play on Monday. Jadeveon Clowney says he will try to play.
Additions and Updates:
Matt Breida ($4,900)
Breida will be out again which is not surprising considering the ankle issue he’s dealing with is of the high variety. Mostert ($3,800) is a cheap option but I’m fading him in cash and tournaments as his volume is simply too low.
Thank you for reading the DFS Week 13 Fades/Plays. Be sure to bookmark this page or follow me on Twitter for more updates or changes. Good luck this week.
THANK YOU FOR READING. YOU CAN READ SOME OF MY OTHER WORK AND THOUGHTS ON MY AUTHOR PAGE. FOLLOW Win Daily DFS ON TWITTER @WinDailyDFS. PLEASE CHECK OUT EVERYTHING THAT Win Daily DFS HAS TO OFFER. NEW ARTICLES, STATISTICS AND DATA ARE BEING ADDED CONSTANTLY. ALSO, DO NOT FORGET TO LISTEN TO THE WIN DAILY PODCASTS HERE.
Featured image courtesy of Jason Peters.
As I’ve said over and over again: every player is banged up to a certain extent at this point in the season. The key to winning at DFS is navigating the medical implications for said injuries. Enter the DFS Injury Fades and Plays article. Despite what I just said about the state of the NFL’s health, this week there are only a handful of decisions to make in terms of injuries as many guys have already been ruled out or are on bye. I’ll walk you through who those players are. Note that the following prices are from FanDuel.
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Tyler Lockett ($7,400)
First up on the DFS Injury Fades and Plays is a guy who looks to be active on Sunday. Lockett was limited in practice all week, but coach Pete Carroll said on Friday that he’s now “good to go”. Keep in mind that although Lockett will probably be active, his effectiveness is not guaranteed. I’m extremely conservative with players coming back from serious injuries (e.g. Emmanuel Sanders in Week 11 playing through rib damage) and considering that he stayed in the hospital for two nights, I need a “prove it” game from him. Not to mention that from a strategy perspective, injuries alter game plans and there is a small chance he’s not as involved in the offensive scheme as we’re used to seeing. So, although I love Tyler Lockett on paper, he’s a fade for me in cash this week. The flip side is that he’s a great tournament play and the potential to pop off for 100 yards and 7 catches still exist. In reality, I’m really only eyeing Russell Wilson ($8,200) in cash for this game.
Alshon Jeffery ($6,200)
Jeffery was a limited practiced participant all week and is now questionable with an ankle injury. He’s a difficult player to prognosticate as this ankle injury has stubbornly stuck around for weeks now, meaning I’m not convinced that he can be that Alshon even if he plays. Despite all of those things, Jeffery still might give it a go due to the fact that fellow receiver Nelson Agholor might sit out with a knee injury, adding extra pressure for Jeffery to try and go. As a result, he’s a fade for me but his teammates Zach Ertz ($6,100) and Miles Sanders ($5,600) become cash and tournament plays respectively. I’m especially bullish on Miles Sanders in tournaments this week despite his dud against the Patriots due to the fact that Jordan Howard will once again be inactive. Additionally, Sanders is a big play waiting to happen. Another rarely discussed factor in situations such as this are injuries on the other side of the ball. The Seahawks’ star defensive lineman Jadeveon Clowney did not practice all week, which significantly hurts a Seattle rushing defense that is just barely middle of the pack. Check back with me for an update on that.
Update: Alshon is inactive. Clowney is also inactive. Consider Ajayi as a tournament option.
Phillip Dorsett ($5,400)
Dorsett is still in the concussion protocol as of this morning, which means that he’s truly a game-time decision. Because of the fact that every concussion is unique and non-linear in nature in terms of recovery, I think this is the first time that the Patriots aren’t just playing whack-a-mole with the reports. It is concerning that Dorsett has not been cleared for contact and the fact that he participated in individual drills on Friday, though a good sign overall, does not guarantee he’s active on Sunday. With the added factor that Mohamed Sanu is a likely inactive (or will at least be limited), I believe this is a ceiling game for Julian Edelman ($7,500) so I’m more than okay using him in cash. His teammates, on the other hand, are fades if active.
Update: Mo Sanu’s ankle injury is of the high ankle variety and it seems like he’s pushing to play. Although it’s a valiant effort to say he’ll play, I would be shocked if he plays and even more shocked if he’s productive.
Emmanuel Sanders ($6,400)
Sanders was a risky play last week due to cartilage damage of his ribs and this week is no different. Last week he was painfully limited and it was cringe-worthy to watch. Ribs injuries are brutal to play through and Sanders showed us that last week. Enough times have not passed for Sanders to be significantly improved. So, even though I think San Francisco runs the ball against Green Bay, somebody has to catch the ball. Looking at you in tournaments Deebo Samuel ($6,200).
George Kittle ($7,000)
Although Kittle is making steady progress in his recovery by practicing in a limited fashion all week, he is still reportedly wearing a non-contact jersey, which is not a great sign for his availability on Sunday. On the off chance that he does get activated, he’s merely a deep tournament play. Instead, I’m looking at Tevin Coleman ($6,300) in tournaments (and potentially cash depending on format) and his counterpart Raheem Mostert ($4,800) who will get the nod as Matt Breida is highly unlike to play. Why you ask? Because the Packers are 5th to last in rushing DVOA and this could become a game of keep away from Aaron Rodgers. Kittle is fade for me if he’s active (which I don’t necessarily expect).
Reports: The reports this morning are that Kittle has a fracture in his foot or ankle but will play tonight. I think that decision is extremely, ahem, not smart. I’m fading Kittle in all formats and willing to live with the consequences (even though I do not expect a productive day from him).
Thank you for reading the DFS Injury Fades and Plays. Make sure to follow up with me on Sunday morning for the final updated version!
THANK YOU FOR READING. YOU CAN READ SOME OF MY OTHER WORK AND THOUGHTS ON MY AUTHOR PAGE. FOLLOW Win Daily DFS ON TWITTER @WinDailyDFS. PLEASE CHECK OUT EVERYTHING THAT Win Daily DFS HAS TO OFFER. NEW ARTICLES, STATISTICS AND DATA ARE BEING ADDED CONSTANTLY. ALSO, DO NOT FORGET TO LISTEN TO THE WIN DAILY PODCASTS HERE.
Image courtesy of Larry Maurer.
