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Week 10 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown Preview: Vikings at Bears

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Monday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the final Week 10 NFL DFS contests!

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 10 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Chalk: Dalvin Cook (DK $20,400, FD $17,500)

Pivot: Kirk Cousins (DK $15,300, FD $14,500)

Contrarian #1: Nick Foles (DK $14,700, FD $13,500)

Contrarian #2: Adam Thielen (DK $15,000, FD $14,000)

The easy choice for the captain chalk is Dalvin Cook, who’s season low is 17.1 DK points in Week 2 against Indy. This season he’s scored 21.8, 17.1, 29.9, 31.6, 19.9, BYE, INJ, 51.6 and 42.2 DK points – numbers bolstered by the fact that he’s scored at least one TD in every game he’s played this season (12 TDs in seven games).  He seems matchup-proof at this point.

We could pivot to Kirk Cousins if assume the Bears will stack the box against Cook, and while Cousins isn’t the most reliable real-world QB (or fantasy producer), he’s notched four weeks with at least 20 DK points and he has a bevy of offensive weapons at his disposal: Cook, veteran WR and PPR maven Adam Thielen, talented rookie wideout Justin Jefferson and stalwart TE Kyle Rudolph.

The Vikings are without Irv Smith Jr. this week, which likely dings their red zone efficacy, but the gloriously man-bunned Tyler Conklin could soak up a few extra targets in his stead. Conklin played some in 2019 and has yet to be targeted this season, but he’s the only other active TE on the Vikings roster. He’s dirt cheap and probably not a guy I’d use in more than 1/10 GPPs.

Additionally, it’s not outside the realm of possibility that capable RB Alexander Mattison sees a few additional carries this week, as Cook has logged 30 and 22 carries in his last two games. Outside of that lot and a smattering of the Vikings DST mixed into my builds, I don’t see too many other impact players for Minnesota.

The Bears have a team total under 20 in this game, which is never a good sign for fantasy production.  Nick Foles has his moments, so he’s the most obvious choice for a contrarian builds – which have merit based on both game script and the Vikings’ record against opposing QBs.

I’d love to plug Foles and Allen Robinson into some lineups right away, but AR2 is questionable with a knee injury and we could see more targets heading the ay of both Anthony Miller and rookie Darnell Mooney. Mooney, even as the Bears deep threat, might even be the safer play of the two given Miller’s spotty performance this season – though Miller has a been a favorite feast-or-famine GPP play for me over the past couple of seasons since he seems to make some truly amazing catches when he’s on his game.

Bears TE Jimmy Graham is another relatively safe fantasy option that maintains some upside, and the Vikings yield about a third more production to opposing TEs than the average NFL team. He’ll be a staple of my builds in all formats.

The backfield is a mess, with the team promoting Lamar Miller from the practice squad to help Ryan Nall with RB duties. Miller hasn’t taken the field since 2018 because of an ACL injury and he was cut from the Patriots roster this summer. He could be a free space at just $200 on DK, but he’ll likely split work with Nall and Swiss army knife Cordarrelle Patterson in Week 10. This relatively ugly committee should still be led by Nall, with David Montgomery still in concussion protocol and ruled out for Week 10.

Lastly, there’s no way we can omit the Bears DST – a strength of this team and a glaring GPP possibility when we’re honest about the fallibility of Cousins and the 3-5 Vikings in general. I’ll have shares of both them and K Cairo Santos in GPPs.

Week 10 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Forget about the defenses – as both QBs have been known to look downright foolish on the football field.

DO: Use Dalvin Cook somewhere in your lineup – unless you’re planning on him getting injured, which is both mean and dumb.

DON’T: Be afraid to completely fade the Vikings passing game in your “Cook at CPT” builds.

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Dalvin Cook
  2. Kirk Cousins
  3. Adam Thielen
  4. Nick Foles
  5. Allen Robinson (if active)
  6. Justin Jefferson
  7. Darnell Mooney
  8. Jimmy Graham
  9. Ryan Nall
  10. Kyle Rudolph
  11. Anthony Miller
  12. Lamar Miller
  13. Vikings DST
  14. Dan Bailey
  15. Cairo Santos
  16. Bears DST
  17. Alexander Mattison
  18. Cordarrelle Patterson
  19. Riley Ridley
  20. Olabisi Johnson
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NFLDaily Fantasy Sports

Week 10 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown Preview: Colts at Titans

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Thursday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the first Week 10 NFL DFS contests!

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 10 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Chalk: Ryan Tannehill (DK $16,800, FD $16,000)

Pivot: Derrick Henry (DK $16,200, FD $15,500)

Contrarian #1: AJ Brown (DK $15,600, FD $15,000)

Contrarian #2: Philip Rivers (DK $14,700, FD $12,500)

The Colts defense is one of the best in the NFL – and the run defense may very well be the best in the game – so Ryan Tannehill could be throwing the ball more than normal to move the football up the field. He’s no Lamar Jackson, so they will likely take a different approach than the Ravens did on Sunday.

Meanwhile, Derrick Henry is second in the league in rushing (843 yards) behind Dalvin Cook and hasn’t had the same success in recent weeks – held under his usual benchmark of 100 yards in two of the last three games. While I wouldn’t categorize him as a contrarian play, he makes for an interesting pivot from Tannehill, who’s the highest priced player on both sites.

Perhaps the sharpest choice for captain this week is AJ Brown, and explosive playmaker who carries enormous upside into every matchup. He’s physical, he’s fast, and he won’t be deterred by the challenge of Indy’s stout defense. Corey Davis has seen a career resurgence in 2020, making him a solid option as well, and TE Jonnu Smith has been a feast-or famine fantasy producer this season with five TDs over his first four games and just one since (2-32-1 in Week 9 vs. CHI).

To further complicate things, Anthony Firkser has been the more productive Titans TE since Week 5. Making a captain selection is difficult because the Titans roll out a pretty balanced offensive attack, so I could see a drastic approach of playing the Titans DST at CPT on DraftKings in order to fit in all the studs.

Philip Rivers (who may get benched at some point in favor of Jacoby Brissett) gets back an important weapon in the relatively inexpensive T.Y. Hilton, who rejoins a WR corps that includes rookie Michael Pittman, the inconsistent Zach Pascal and Marcus Johnson – who’s actually been targeted 19 times over the past three games.

Their RBs (rookie Jonathan Taylor, change of pack back Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins) have been a frustrating group for fantasy owners – since there’s no indication of who’s going to be the main producer. The best option is still probably Taylor, who is usually the early focal point of the running attack, but that could easily shift to Hines in a negative game script.

There’s no Jack Doyle (concussion) this week, so we can expect a few targets for Mo Alie-Cox (questionable, knee) and Trey Burton. Burton has more red-zone upside (with rushing TDs in consecutive games straddling the Week 7 bye), but last week we saw Alie-Cox find paydirt.

This game is going to be a grind, with both teams approaching full strength and the lack of an obvious game script – but I’m comfortable using lots of Henry/Titans DST and a smattering of Tannehill/Brown/Smith stacks with Rivers and some Indy skill players on the other side.

Week 9 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Focus too much on the sub-$3K punts on DK – there’s plenty of productive guys from $3-9K offering excellent upside.

DO: Deploy a balanced approach for the Titans – because that’s how they roll – and mix in some of their defense as Philip Rivers has not been great this season.

DON’T: Forget about Rivers/Hilton in GPPs, however, as they could be a game-breaking combo this week if Hilton isn’t limited.

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Derrick Henry
  2. Ryan Tannehill
  3. AJ Brown
  4. Philip Rivers
  5. Jonnu Smith
  6. Corey Davis
  7. T.Y. Hilton
  8. Titans DST
  9. Jonathan Taylor
  10. Nyheim Hines
  11. Colts DST
  12. Zach Pascal
  13. Trey Burton
  14. Anthony Firkser
  15. Stephen Gostkowski
  16. Michael Pittman, Jr.
  17. Marcus Johnson
  18. Ryan Blankenship
  19. Jordan Wilkins
  20. DeMichael Harris
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NFLDaily Fantasy Sports

Week 9 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown Preview: Patriots at Jets

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Monday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the final Week 9 NFL DFS contests!

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 9 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Chalk: Cam Newton (DK $19,800, FD $17,000)

Pivot: Jakobi Meyers (DK $13,500, FD $11,000)

Contrarian #1: Patriots DST (DK $11,100)

Contrarian #2: Jamison Crowder (DK $16,800, FD $14,000)

We’ve got another weird one on the docket for MNF, with multiple statuses to monitor before game time, including the Jets’ highest-upside offensive player in Jamison Crowder (groin) and the normal bevy of Patriots players who’ve been saddled with the questionable tag – no doubt because Bill Belichick can’t help but add some gamesmanship to his weekly strategy.

Ironically, one of the most dubious of 2020 performers this season, Cam Newton, is actually one of the least uncertain heading into this matchup – at least in my opinion. The Jets have lost another key defensive piece (LB Avery Williamson via trade) and should have trouble containing Newton in this matchup. How the Pats deploy their running backs, including how much we see of James White and Rex Burkhead, hinges on the availability of Sony Michel (who has been practicing and could technically come off IR and play tonight) and Damien Harris, whose questionable tag could simply be a red herring and not a real setback for his ankle issue.

Using Newton at captain makes the most sense for cash game matchups, and his upside is high enough that he’ll be the chalk in GPPs. The Patriots will be missing WR Julian Edelman, but Jakobi Meyers seems to have taken over the lion’s share of targets in the passing game. I’d strongly consider stacking Meyers and White with Newton as a starting point for GPPs and cash. Using Meyers at CPT on DK allows you to build some huge-upside Patriots stacks.

The Jets – smack dab in the middle of a season where they are once again being the Jets – will be rolling out Joe Flacco at QB with Sam Darnold (shoulder) on the shelf. Flacco is a man who clearly does not want to be the quarterback of this 0-8 football team. I’m steering clear in most formats but will have at least 1/10 Jets stack with Flacco at the helm in large-field GPPs. I’d rather see them give James Morgan a shot, but Adam Gase is a sadist weirdo who sleeps about as often as a NXIVM member.

Because of their glaring lack of a running game, I don’t mind the Jets WRs here, as they may rack up reception points without necessarily finding paydirt or making huge gains – and the triumvirate of Crowder (double-digit targets in every game he’s played this season), Braxton Berrios (11 targets last week vs. the Chiefs) and rookie Denzel Mims will be complicated by the return of Breshad Perriman (concussion).

On DraftKings, we really have to consider the Pats DST, even though it’s a steep price, and there are definitely some viable GPP builds that start with them up top.

Week 9 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Play the Jets defense tonight. I just don’t see a path to them factoring even if they get a rare defensive TD.

DO: Use Jakobi Meyers in a bunch of lineups, as he’s soaking up the most targets of any Pats WR.

DON’T: Focus too much on the tight ends in this game. Neither side targets TEs very much and while that could change in the small sample of a single game, it’s certainly not a viable cash game strategy.

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Cam Newton
  2. Jamison Crowder
  3. Jakobi Meyers
  4. James White
  5. Patriots DST
  6. Joe Flacco
  7. Braxton Berrios
  8. Sony Michel (love the price on DK if active)
  9. Damien Harris (if active and Michel inactive)
  10. Damiere Byrd
  11. La’Mical Perine
  12. Breshad Perriman
  13. Rex Burkhead (but he’s a lineup lock if both Michel and Harris are out)
  14. Denzel Mims
  15. Frank Gore
  16. Nick Folk (questionable – Justin Rohrwasser is the backup)
  17. Gunner Olszewski
  18. Jeff Smith
  19. Ryan Izzo (questionable)
  20. Sergio Castillo

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NFLDaily Fantasy Sports

Week 9 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown Preview: Packers at 49ers

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Thursday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the first Week 9 NFL DFS contests!

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 9 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Let’s start with a snapshot of the top options at captain on DK:


Wow. That’s a lot of red — but at least we don’t see any injury notes next to the top two options: Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams. Rodgers is actually cheaper than Adams but my guess is that he’ll end up being the chalk in the top spot. We’ll know a little bit closer to lock if that’s the case.

Chalk: Aaron Rodgers (DK $16,500, FD $15,000)

Pivot: Davante Adams (DK $18,600, FD $15,500)

Contrarian #1: Nick Mullens (DK $13,800, FD $12,000)

Contrarian #2: Jerick McKinnon (DK $12,000, FD $7,000)

Aaron Jones is still nursing a calf injury and is listed as questionable – he’ll be a game-time decision and his absence would force the Packers to start someone a relative unknown, be that DK minimum-price Tyler Ervin (who has logged the most field time of the available Green Bay RBs this season with four carries for 43 rushing yards and 6-33-0 on nine receiving targets) or 2019 sixth-round pick Dexter Williams, who’s minimum price (DK $300, FD $5,000) on both sites.

Jones has played injured before, and he’s even been effective – so as of writing this I’m expecting him to suit up. After Adams, we could see lots of targets for TE Robert Tonyan, WR Allen Lazard (if he comes off IR before the game and is activated), and even the likes of Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Equanimeous St. Brown.

On the 49ers side, things are looking even more bleak, with all the team’s high-profile fantasy starters missing tonight’s contest – including QB Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle, IR), TE George Kittle (broken foot, IR), RBs Raheem Mostert (ankle, IR), Tevin Coleman (knee, out) and Jeff Wilson (ankle, IR), as well a triumvirate of WRs in the speedy Deebo Samuel (COVID-19), rookie standout Brandon Aiyuk (COVID-19), and red-zone target Kendrick Bourne (COVID-19). Dante Pettis (shoulder) got cut this week and promptly signed with the Giants.

We’re left with backup QB Nick Mullens, quick-twitch RB Jerick McKinnon, rookie RB JaMycal Hasty, TEs Jordan Reed and Ross Dwelley, and these WRs: Trent Taylor, Richie James (questionable with an ankle injury) and practice squad bodies River Cracraft (not joking) and Kevin White, who was once a highly regarded WR prospect for the Bears.

I expect to see a lot of two-TE sets and formations with both McKinnon (lined up as a WR) and Hasty. This is madness, but we can embrace it and use it to our advantage in this showdown.

There will be no trouble fitting the top few performers from both teams if we punt CPT on DK, but even with Rodgers or Adams at 1.5x we can likely get Ervin or Dexter Williams and another Packers pass catcher in there alongside the SF pieces we like.

Week 9 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Be afraid to play minimum salary guys tonight. There are several who could have a huge impact on this game.

DO: Stay tuned to the inactives and make the necessary pivots. There may be a few builds that we don’t need to tinker with once we know the status of Aaron Jones, but I’m sure there will be relevant breaking news as we approach 8 p.m.

DON’T: Forget about defenses and kickers. Mistakes could abound in this game, and while we’ve seen some poor play from the Packers DST, they and the 49ers DST could be worth a look.

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Aaron Rodgers
  2. Davante Adams
  3. Aaron Jones (questionable)
  4. Jerick McKinnon
  5. Nick Nullens
  6. JaMycal Hasty
  7. Robert Tonyan
  8. Jordan Reed
  9. Trent Taylor
  10. Tyler Ervin (bump above Hasty if Jones is out)
  11. Dexter Williams (if Jones is out)
  12. Allen Lazard (if active)
  13. Mason Crosby
  14. Ross Dwelley
  15. Packers DST
  16. Marquez Valdes-Scantling
  17. Robbie Gould
  18. 49ers DST
  19. Jace Sternberger
  20. Richie James (questionable)
  21. Equanimeous St. Brown
  22. Kyle Juszczyk

Note: Injuries could also force us to consider Packers WR Malik Taylor (if Lazard is still out), Kevin White (if James is inactive) and 84-year-old Paul Hornung (joking).

Good luck!

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Week 8 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown Preview: Bucs at Giants

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Monday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the final Week 8 NFL DFS contests!

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 8 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Chalk: Tom Brady (DK $18,000, FD $16,500)

Pivot: Ronald Jones (DK $13,200, FD $13,000)

Contrarian #1: Daniel Jones (DK $13,800, FD $15,000)

Contrarian #2: Darius Slayton (DK $10,500, FD $12,000)

Once again, the chalk – and likely a very heavy chalk – will be Tom Brady, who seems to be making a fine second home for himself among the myriad weapons in Tampa Bay. As much as the philosophies of HCs Bill Belichick and Bruce Arians may differ, he’s finding success with a few of the same ingredients: a fluid but talented group of receivers and backs, a defense that’s providing him with excellent opportunities and the luxury of patience, and an emphasis on protecting the ball and taking what the opposing team gives you. The best way to tackle this showdown may be to find our differentiation in the flex spots rather than get crazy contrarian at captain.

One of the weapons available to Brady this season will be Antonio Brown, but he’s not eligible to play until Week 9. With Chris Godwin (broken finger) out this week, we’re left with the uber-talented Mike Evans, TE Rob Gronkowski and Scotty Miller (hip, groin) as Brady’s main receiving weapons.

But just like in Week 5, my favorite pivot is probably Ronald Jones – who’s a much less risky play these days given how integral he is to the early down running game. In a matchup against the Giants that may get out of hand quickly, he’s the best bet to salt away the game with chunky gains and pile up the yardage.

If the Giants can keep things close, we could see some impactful plays from Leonard Fournette, who Arians recently labeled his “nickel” running back after he led the Bucs backfield with 40 snaps in Week 7 against the Raiders. We could certainly consider using Fournette as a pivot from Jones – or even alongside RJ2 in a few large-field GPPs.

For the Gaints, I’m narrowing my focus to Daniel Jones, WRs Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard, TE Evan Engram and a smattering of RBs Wayne Gallman and Dion Lewis. Given the effectiveness of the Bucs defense this season (and the viability of the Bucs DST as an option on DraftKings this week) I can’t imagine playing more than two Giants in many of these contests,

Golden Tate isn’t getting enough targets for him to be an essential part of my builds, but he’s certainly an option if you’re making hundreds of lineups.

Week 8 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Play four Giants and just two Bucs. The spread here heavily favors the Bucs and they should be doing most of the scoring tonight.

DO: Consider Leonard Fournette – who’s been seeing more action and has supplanted LeSean McCoy as the go-to passing game RB – and fringe options like rookie WR Tyler Johnson and TE Cameron Brate, even with Gronk on a tear lately.

DON’T: Get too cute and make many lineups without Tom Brady. You don’t have to use him up top, but i’’s hard to imagine a scenario where Brady doesn’t get 20+ fantasy points in this smash spot.

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Tom Brady
  2. Ronald Jones
  3. Mike Evans
  4. Daniel Jones
  5. Darius Slayton
  6. Rob Gronkowski
  7. Scotty Miller
  8. Evan Engram
  9. Leonard Fournette
  10. Sterling Shepard
  11. Tyler Johnson
  12. Wayne Gallman
  13. Bucs DST
  14. Justin Watson
  15. Cameron Brate
  16. Dion Lewis
  17. Ryan Succop
  18. Golden Tate
  19. Graham Gano
  20. Giants DST
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Week 7 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown Preview: Giants at Eagles

Antonio D'Arcangelis
written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Thursday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big in the first Week 7 NFL DFS contests!

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 7 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Chalk: Carson Wentz (DK $16,200, FD $15,500)

Pivot: Daniel Jones (DK $15,600, FD $14,500)

Contrarian #1: Darius Slayton (DK $13,800, FD $12,500)

Contrarian #2: DeSean Jackson (DK $8,700, FD $8,000)

While both the Giants and Eagles defenses have not been the teams’ main issues this season, it’s hard not to like both Carson Wentz and Daniel Jones in this showdown, and there are probably a few ways to fit both of them into your lineups – especially if we use one of the defenses in the hopes of a pick six. With all the injuries facing the Eagles, it’s not hard to see a low-salary player for them emerging with a viable fantasy performance and being worth the juice of using in the Captain spot on DraftKings.

On FanDuel, it’s going to be very hard to get away from Boston Scott at the still-depressed price of just $6,500 – although using him at CPT may not be advisable. Scott and Corey Clement are the Philly backs who’ll get the touches this week, with Scott in the starting role and Clement likely handling goal line work and about 8-10 touches. Both are capable of monster days if they get the proverbial “hot hand.”

DeSean Jackson is expected to make his return for the Eagles this week and could be an interesting CPT on DK, where he’s sub-$9K. Jackson headlines a group of capable receivers that has seen the emergence of Travis Fulgham in recent weeks. Fading the popular Fulgham might be one way to get some leverage on the field, especially since we don’t have any idea how much he’ll contribute with D-Jax back in the fold.

The Giants will rely on a slightly hobbled Darius Slayton, TE Evan Engram (great bounce-back candidate this week) and a relatively inexpensive Devonta Freeman (handling most of the touches at RB) to move the ball on offense, with Golden Tate checking in as a solid low-price option – especially if Slayton is rendered less effective because of the lingering foot injury. While Slayton doesn’t have an injury designation ahead of this matchup and has more multi-TD upside than probably any other non-QB on TNF, he’s still a risk. There’s even talk of activating Sterling Shepard (toe, just back from IR) before this game, but he’s still a GTD – so stay tuned.

Week 7 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Be afraid to play the Giants defense, especially since they have some playmakers, Wentz has been erratic, and the Eagles offense is pretty banged up.

DO: Check the injury report and chatter before lock to determine who’s healthy and who’s not. Football is one sport where players below 100 percent can be active and used as decoys.

DON’T: Forget about Eagles TE Richard Rodgers. He’s cheap and will be the starter with both Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert out.

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Carson Wentz
  2. Daniel Jones
  3. Darius Slayton
  4. Boston Scott
  5. DeSean Jackson
  6. Evan Engram
  7. Devonta Freeman
  8. Travis Fulgham
  9. Golden Tate
  10.  Giants DST
  11.  Eagles DST
  12.  Richard Rodgers
  13.  Corey Clement
  14.  Graham Gano
  15.  Greg Ward
  16.  Jake Elliott
  17.  Dion Lewis
  18.  Sterling Shepard (GTD)
  19.  JJ Arcega-Whiteside
  20.  Jason Croom
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Week 6 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown Preview: Cards at Cowboys

Antonio D'Arcangelis
written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season continues with the second of two Monday night showdowns, and we’ll help you win big money in the final Week 6 NFL DFS contests!

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 6 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Chalk: Kyler Murray (DK $18,600, FD $16,500)

Pivot: DeAndre Hopkins (DK $16,800, FD $15,000)

Contrarian #1: Ezekiel Elliott (DK $15,900, FD $15,500)

Contrarian #2: Andy Dalton (DK $14,400, FD $12,500)

The Cowboys are favored in this game – largely because most of the skill position weapons that helped Dak Prescott put up gaudy numbers for the first few weeks will be available to Andy Dalton as well. But just as the Cowboys have struggled with injuries to their offensive line and the season-ending injury to Prescott, the Cards defense will also be without one of their best players in Chandler Jones (torn biceps).

The Cowboys have had a difficult time stopping anyone, so the task of containing Kyler Murray will be nearly impossible – making the second-year star the likely chalk as showdown captain. He and DeAndre Hopkins should have a field day against the porous Dallas secondary, though I expect production from all the Cards WRs in this one.

One of the keys for Dallas will be establishing the running game, which should mean 20+ carries for Ezekiel Elliott. The elite Cowboys RB is still a dangerous weapon as both a rusher and receiver, and the Cards have struggled against opposing RBs, who are averaging 106.8 rushing yards and 50.8 receiving yards per game in 2020. Standout defensive backs Budda Baker and Patrick Peterson may limit the effectiveness of the Dallas WR corps a bit, but the Cards’ front seven will have a tough time with Zeke.

This should be a relatively high-scoring game, and if I had to pick a Cowboys WR to spend up on, it would be CeeDee Lamb. The rookie WR already has 29-433-2 on 40 targets through five games, and he seems to get better every week.

Week 6 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Focus too much on the defenses. There’s certainly pick-six leverage in this matchup, but both units are banged up and there’s just no reason to believe either defense can be dominant.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Forget about Larry Fitzgerald. He saw seven targets last week and has yet to score a TD in 2020. This could be the week.

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Kyler Murray
  2. DeAndre Hopkins
  3. Ezekiel Elliott
  4. CeeDee Lamb
  5. Andy Dalton
  6. Christian Kirk
  7. Amari Cooper
  8. Dalton Schultz
  9. Kenyan Drake
  10.  Chase Edmonds
  11.  Larry Fitzgerald
  12.  Greg Zuerlein
  13.  Michael Gallup
  14.  Zane Gonzalez
  15.  Andy Isabella
  16.  Cedric Wilson
  17.  Cardinals DST
  18.  Cowboys DST
  19.  Tony Pollard
  20.  Darrell Daniels
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Week 5 NFL DFS Tuesday Night Showdown Preview: Bills at Titans

Antonio D'Arcangelis
written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

A bizarre Week 5 NFL DFS concludes with the Bills and Titans on a rare Tuesday night contest, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money!

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 5 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Chalk: Josh Allen (DK $19,500, FD $16,000)

Pivot: Derrick Henry (DK $16,500, FD $14,500)

Contrarian #1: Devin Singletary (DK $12,000, FD $12,000)

Contrarian #2: Jonnu Smith (DK $10,800, FD $10,500)

Some notable injuries/COVID updates: For the Bills, rookie RB Zack Moss (toe), veteran WR John Brown (calf) and standout CB Tre’Davious White are all questionable, with Brown having the best chance of suiting up and contributing. LB Matt Milano is out. White’s absence would mean a logical upgrade for A.J., Brown (knee, questionable), who is expected to return for the Titans following three weeks off. The Titans will be without WRs Corey Davis and Adam Humphries, who are both on the reserve/COVID-19 list along with seven other Tennessee players. The preparation, talent, health and overall football edge is overwhelmingly in the Bills favor, though the defensive unit – especially the secondary – is pretty banged up.

The obvious chalk at captain will be Bills QB Josh Allen, who leads his undefeated team into Tennessee on the heels of four straight 25+ point fantasy performances. He’s averaging an impressive 8.96 yards per pass attempt this season (second to only Jared Goff), has thrown for 1,326-12-1 in four games and has added 83 rushing yards and three TDs on the ground. I’ll gladly eat this chalk and pair him with speedy WR Stefon Diggs. Using Allen with Devin Singletary is also a possibility, since the Bills could be spending a lot of time in the Titans red zone and the Tennessee secondary is one of its strengths, with Kevin Byard, Malcolm Butler, Johnathan Joseph and Kenny Vaccaro all healthy for this game.

My favorite pivot if you can’t afford Allen at CPT is Derrick Henry, assuming they continue to utilize him in the passing game. I could see Ryan Tannehill or A.J. Brown having a big game as well, but the Bills are missing Milano and Henry has logged 34, 27 and 29 touches in his first three games of 2020. The former Heisman winner is fully rested; the last game the Titans played was in September.

Another option for the CPT spot on DK is Jonnu Smith, sincehe could see upwards of 10 targets from Tannehill this game, and he allows you to fit in several Bills players and Henry.

Week 5 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Forget to check inactives before game time and be ready to pivot. It’s a pretty fluid situation these days and there are some obscure but possibly relevant Titans WRs (Kalif Raymond, Nick Westbrook, Chester Rogers and Cody Hollister) in the player pool for this showdown, especially if A.J. Brown has any kind of setback leading up to kickoff.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Sleep on Devin Singletary tonight, especially if he’s paired with the Bills defense. The Bills RB is affordable on both sites, and that’s one build where you don’t necessarily have to plug in Allen, too.

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Josh Allen
  2. Derrick Henry
  3. Devin Singletary
  4. Stefon Diggs
  5. Jonnu Smith
  6. A.J. Brown (knee, questionable)
  7. Ryan Tannehill
  8. Cole Beasley
  9. Bills DST
  10.  John Brown (knee, questionable)
  11.  Kalif Raymond
  12.  Dawson Knox
  13.  Gabriel Davis
  14.  Tyler Bass
  15.  Stephen Gostkowski
  16.  Zack Moss (toe, questionable)
  17.  Anthony Firkser
  18.  Tyler Kroft
  19.  Nick Westbrook
  20.  Titans DST
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Week 5 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown Preview: Chargers at Saints

Brian Tulloch
written by Brian Tulloch

The NFL DFS season continues with Chargers-Saints on MNF, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 5 NFL DFS contests!

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 5 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Chalk: Alvin Kamara (DK $18,000, FD $16,000)

Pivot: Drew Brees (DK $15,600, FD $14,500)

Contrarian #1: Justin Herbert (DK $15,300, FD $14,000)

Contrarian #2: Latavius Murray (DK $7,200, FD $8,000)

Some notable injuries: The story of this game will likely be told by who is available on defense for the Saints, who are one of the best defenses in the league when healthy. The injury-riddled Saints have already ruled out CB Janoris Jenkins (shoulder) and CB Justin Hardee (hamstring), and both DE Marcus Davenport (toe), and playmaking CB Marshon Lattimore (hamstring) turned in limited practices leading up to this game. DT Sheldon Rankins made an appearance on the injury report and didn’t practice on Saturday because of a thumb injury, and he’s also listed as questionable.

The Saints offensive line has some injuries too (G Andrus Peat and T Ryan Ramczyk), which could affect their RB usage in attacking the Chargers run defense. If Ramczyk plays they might pound the right side more since Joey Bosa (triceps) didn’t look great in Week 4.

On the Chargers side, we have rookie RB Joshua Kelley and the recently activated Justin Jackson handling backfield duties while Austin Ekeler (hamstring) recovers on IR. QB Justin Herbert seems ready for prime time, and he’ll be asked to shoulder a heavy load on Monday night. He makes for a solid contrarian captain pivot in this showdown.

The obvious chalk at captain will be Alvin Kamara, who has 45-point upside given the 1.5x multiplier and the fact that Michel Thomas (ankle, coach’s decision) is still out. Latavius Murray is a viable contrarian CPT choice as well, since the Saints could try to salt this thing away with traditional north-south running and goal line plunges if they jump out to a large lead.

There’s still a case to be made for Drew Brees at CPT in what may be his final game facing his old team, and that’s an interesting narrative if not a likely positive outcome. There’s some inefficiency to his game lately and the Saints would be silly not to capitalize on their strong rush offense.

Emmanuel Sanders and Tre’Quan Smith are both high-risk options but should be sprinkled throughout your lineups with the news coming this weekend that Thomas is being disciplined and kept out of action tonight. I kind of like Jared Cook (groin, probable) for his two-TD upside in GPPs at what should be relatively low ownership.

If you’re stacking Herbert with Chargers WRs, you’ll be looking at Keenan Allen and company (Hunter Henry should really eat this week, Mike Williams is questionable but trending upward, and Jalen Guyton could even be an option) in what could be smash spot against a battered Saints secondary.

Week 5 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Focus too much on defenses, the sub-2K on DK players (not a lot there) or the Saints passing game tonight, though it’s a viable contrarian play to stack Brees with Cook and a WR if you’re entering large-field MMEs.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Ignore the effectiveness of Latavius Murray this season. The Saints are a different offensive team now and Murray’s bruising style has been one of their strengths,

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Alvin Kamara
  2. Justin Herbert
  3. Latavius Murray
  4. Drew Brees
  5. Keenan Allen
  6. Hunter Henry
  7. Joshua Kelley
  8. Tre’Quan Smith
  9. Jared Cook (groin, probable)
  10.  Emmanuel Sanders
  11.  Justin Jackson
  12.  Will Lutz
  13.  Mike Williams (hamstring, questionable)
  14.  Jared Guyton
  15.  Michael Badgley
  16.  Saints DST
  17.  Chargers DST
  18.  Taysom Hill
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Week 5 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown Preview: Bucs at Bears

David Stowe
written by David Stowe

The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Thursday showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the first Week 5 NFL DFS contests!

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 5 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Chalk: Tom Brady (DK $16,800, FD $15,000)

Pivot: Ronald Jones (DK $11,100, FD

Contrarian #1: Nick Foles (DK $15,000, FD $14,000) $10,500)

Contrarian #2: Allen Robinson (DK $15,900, FD $11,500)

The chalk – and what should probably be HEAVY chalk – is Tom Brady, in part because he’s Tom Brady and he’s the GOAT, and also because the Bucs are lacking their top WR in Chris Godwin (out), Mike Evans is questionable and Scotty Miller is on the probable side of questionable, the plan being Evans will test his ankle in pre-game workouts to determine if he plays.

If he spreads it around and the Bucs attack what has been a relatively solid pass Bears defense through the air, he’ll still accrue enough points to justify having him as CPT. I think he makes more sense from a GPP perspective as a flex, but in cash games we can almost guarantee he’ll find his way to the top in most of the builds.

My favorite pivot might just be Ronald Jones – though we know he’s a risky GPP play given his history of highly dynamic fantasy scoring. The Bucs will most certainly give him touches, and they’ve been more creative with their offense since Brady came aboard. I’m less interested in targeting one particular Bucs WR given the injuries, but they’re certainly all viable flex plays.

Nick Foles is certainly a risk as well but could be the contrarian play that breaks the slate. Unlike Brady’s he’s got a stable of talented, capable and healthy pass catchers in WR Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller and TE Jimmy Graham, and the Bears have been using David Montgomery is little bit in the passing game. If there’s a piece of the Bucs defense I don’t trust, it’s the secondary, but their front seven is one of the best in football.

As usual, we could see kickers come into play if drives are stymied as they get into the red zone tonight, but there’s no need to use them in the top spot. Fitting the main stars isn’t all that difficult given the softer pricing for this showdown.

Week 5 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Be afraid to take a bunch of Bears against this tough Bucs defense. Don’t get me wrong – I’ll have builds that toss in the occasional Bucs DST as a flex, but the trio of Foles/Graham/Robinson has as much upside as Brady/Gronk/Evans given the injuries plaguing the Bucs.

DO: Consider Mike Evans if he’s active. Even at 80% he’s an excellent red zone target that Brady loves.

DON’T: Be afraid to leave money on the table. Low-cost options like Cameron Brate, Scotty Miller and even Montgomery have high-enough upside that they could have a bigger impact the higher salary guys you could squeeze in in certain builds.

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Tom Brady
  2. Ronald Jones
  3. Nick Foles
  4. Allen Robinson
  5. Mike Evans (if active)
  6. Jimmy Graham
  7. Scotty Miller
  8. Anthony Miller
  9. David Montgomery
  10. Cameron Brate
  11. Ryan Succop
  12. Bucs DST
  13. Rob Gronkowski
  14. Cairo Santos
  15. K’Shawn Vaughn
  16. Cordarrelle Patterson
  17. Darnell Mooney (questionable)
  18. Ted Ginn, Jr.
  19. Bears DST
  20. Javon Wims
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