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NFL Thanksgiving Day Game By Game Breakdown

NFL Thanksgiving Day Game By Game Breakdown

We have a really fun three game slate on tap and it should be a good day of football. I just want to say thank you to everyone that is a member and takes the time out of their lives to read my work. The staff and myself are immensely grateful for all of you and I feel lucky that I have somewhere to spout off about football and sports in general. I hope everyone enjoys their holiday and let’s find those green screens for NFL Thanksgiving Day Game By Game Breakdown! Don’t forget about our Black Friday Deal too, 50% off anything on the site!

Texans at Lions, O/U of 51 (Texans -3)

*NOTE* I’ve said this in Discord a few times but let me repeat myself. I won’t play cash games on a three game slate. There’s too much overlap and everyone wants to play the same players. Just because I’m not playing cash doesn’t mean I’m being silly with my bankroll. I’m dialing back my volume and understanding this slate is highly volatile. Missing just one or two players could end it in a hurry. Please, be smart with your bankroll on today’s slate. We can’t stress this enough.

Texans – Pace is 12th

QB – Taking away a game played in awful weather conditions, Deshaun Watson has been ON FIRE since the coaching change. His floor has been 24 DK and he deserves to be the QB1 in salary on this slate. Not only is he the QB1 in salary, he’s the most expensive player overall. It might not be the hardest task to fit him in either because the salaries are pretty soft overall today. This is not a tough matchup at all for Watson and he’s likely to be pretty chalky overall. Sitting sixth in points per drop back and eighth in points per game is a really nice mix for this game.

Facing off against Detroit should be a pretty easy path for Watson. They rank 25th in passing yards given up per game this season and 23rd in DVOA against the pass. Neither represents much of a challenge and Detroit can’t even get pressure on Watson. The Lions have the seventh-lowest pressure rate in football. That’s not a great mix even though Watson has been sacked the seventh-most times in the league. The bottom line is Watson likely represents the safest floor and highest ceiling at his position on this slate.

RB – I’m a Duke Johnson truther from way back and I was excited that he could get a chance to be a lead back in an offense. No disrespect to David Johnson and his injury but I thought this was the chance for Duke in a good offense. That has not worked out in the results department as Duke has a combined 11.9 DK points in two games on 27 total touches. The matchups haven’t been on the tougher side and this one is the best yet. The question is do we have any confidence in actually playing him at this juncture?

He actually saw his snaps dialed back a little bit. This past week he was down to 77% from 95% in Week 9. Ex-Seahawk C.J. Prosise got five touches in this past game but that’s a pretty thin play on this slate and I think we can pass on him. I’d have a share or two of Duke in GPP, but he’s not my overall favorite at the position today. My 2017 version of a fantasy football player might be frowning at me, but that’s where we’re at in 2020. Duke is in play with the Lions ranking 24th in DVOA against the run but the floor isn’t very hard to find. This is mostly a leverage play off the Watson chalk and a risky one at that.

WR – If DK keeps giving me Brandin Cooks this cheap, I’m going to keep playing him. Will Fuller did have more targets in this past game, but that’s been against the grain under this coaching staff. Cooks has been the target leader since Week 5 and still has that lead even though it’s only a difference of six targets. Fuller holds the lead in air yards but that has left him thinner in the receptions department. Cooks has a 37-29 lead and leads in yards at 496-434. I’ve said it for weeks but when the price is so different between the two, it’s just so much easier to plug in Cooks.

Cooks is almost certainly chalky and draws Amani Oruwariye in coverage. The Lions corner has allowed a 1.60 point per target and a 13.5 yards per reception over 55 targets. Fuller will mostly line up opposite Desmond Trufant who has gotten hit in coverage this year. He’s only played four games but the points per target is over 2.00. There is a good argument that if Fuller comes in as a lower rostered play, you should be over the field on him. If everyone plays Cooks and Fuller is the one that goes off, you could have a huge leg up.

With how unstable the running game is, you can make a strong argument to double stack both receivers here. A potential value play could be Keke Coutee. We saw Randall Cobb leave the game Sunday and he’s already listed as doubtful on this quick turnaround. Now, much like Prosise this is a thin play. Cobb was operating as the WR3 in the offense and Coutee was only targeted four times. I think I’d rather play the next player we talk about ahead of Coutee and I believe it’s chasing a score. Nick pointed out the Texans went to a ton of two tight ends sets after losing Cobb.

TE – It sure looks like Jordan Akins is back in his normal pass catching role after fully recovering from his ankle injury. He’s under $3,000 and saw six targets this past week, some of which could stem from no Cobb for most of that game. The 11.6% target share isn’t that bad for a tight end period, especially this cheap. Akins did only play 51% of the snaps on Sunday but Fells was down to third among tight ends in snaps at 34%. It can be noted that Detroit is in the top eight in DK points allowed per game to the position. However, “defense against tight end” doesn’t always hold a lot of water for me. There’s so few fantasy relevant tight ends, that’s not a true measure of how a defense defends the position. With the savings and the opening of Cobb’s targets (14.6% since Week 5), Akins is well in play and is a unique way to stack up chalky Watson.

D/ST – I mean, after seeing Detroit get shut out by Carolina I can’t rule them out completely. They’re the second-cheapest unit on the slate but have only generated five turnovers so far. That’s pretty putrid, although they do at least have 21 sacks. Detroit has allowed the sixth-most sacks this season so if it means fitting another skill player, I can get behind using the Texans defense. That is especially true if the Lions can’t get healthy before Thursday.

Priority – Watson, Cooks, Fuller, Akins, Duke, D/ST, Coutee

Lions – Pace is 7th

QB – I wonder if Matthew Stafford goes a little overlooked here. He’s had some issues for sure and last game was about rock bottom for the year. The lack of weapons around him shone through and he flat out didn’t play well either. However, if we think that Watson can put up some points, Stafford is going to have to cut it loose to try and keep up. Cam Newton and the limited Patriots passing game just approached 350 passing yards on Sunday. He’s 14th in attempts and 19th in points per drop back, so you need to catch him in a comeback style game. It doesn’t hurt if he actually has some weapons either, as we learned on Sunday. Stafford just needs some reinforcements here and he could be a solid cheap option.

RB – IF by some chance D’Andre Swift makes it back for this game, he’s going to be a lock for me. Not only is he a lock, he’s my number one running back play on the slate. I don’t particularly expect that with a concussion on a short week, but let’s hold out some hope.

If not, Adrian Peterson and Kerryon Johnson are in a redemption spot but it’s going to take a short memory to go back to them. Peterson had seven touches this past game and Johnson had eight, and neither one of them broke six DK points. Here’s the issue with just casting them aside – Houston is the worst rush defense in football. They are allowing the most rushing yards per game and are 32nd in DVOA against the run. It can be hard to turn away from that matchup, especially when the running back position as a whole is nothing spectacular. Game log watchers might well pass this spot altogether but if it’s AD and Johnson again, they would be on the board as a pivot from other options.

WR – At least part of the reason Stafford and the Lions struggled so badly Sunday was their receiving corps, or lack thereof. Both Kenny Golladay and Danny Amendola were out and that proved to be a killer. Golladay has been out since partway through Week 8 with a hip injury. He was limited once last week and then didn’t practice again. It could be a tough road for him here. Amendola was similar so we need to see if either are cleared. This will be updated when we have a better idea of who’s in and out. Marvin Jones should be in play regardless, but he’s struggled without Golladay this year. At $5,500, Jones has hit 3x just twice all season and that’s with Golladay only playing four full games.

TE – It wasn’t a banner day this past week for T.J. Hockenson but he eclipsed 10 DK points yet again, which is considerable production for the tight end this season. Hockenson has hit that mark in seven of ten games. He may well be about the safest tight end option on this slate. The second-year payer is also fourth among tight ends in red zone targets and third in end zone targets. Lastly, he’s tied for third in touchdowns with five. Houston is right about average against the position and sits at 547 yards allowed so far. There’s value in the safety Hockenson brings, but I’m not convinced we need to “pay up”on this slate. It may be better to go lower in salary and spend up elsewhere. If I can fit him, that’s wonderful. I will have other priorities before putting Hockenson into the lineup.

D/ST – They are the cheapest unit on the slate and I get the idea of a punt. However, it’s really tough to go after a defense that is so pedestrian. They do have 10 turnovers but just 14 sacks. When you combine that with giving up nearly 28 points per game, I would rather figure out how to play the Texans defense of these two options.

Priority – Hockenson, Stafford, Jones, Johnson, TBD by injuries of other players

Washington at Cowboys, O/U of 46 (Cowboys -3)

Washington – Pace is 15th

QB – Regardless of whether we play him or not, shoutout to Alex Smith for enduring an immense amount of pain to get back on the field and get his first win since his injury. That sort of tenacity has to be respected. If we’re talking about just the past three game sample size, Smith and the Washington offense will absolutely be game-script dependent. In the two games that Washington trailed, Smith total 87 pass attempts. In this past week’s game, he only threw 25 times and Washington was in control for the majority of it.

Playing Smith depends on how you view this game going. If Washington is winning and/or it’s close, Smith is not likely to be the best choice. He’s only at a 0.39 pDB so far in his time his season. The positives are the 74.6% completion rate and the 75% completion rate from play action passing. If Dallas can put up some points, he’s interesting as the cheapest starter in GPP. That’s especially true if Watson turns into the chalk we expect. Smith is likeliest the most script-sensitive quarterback option.

RB – Talk about game script sensitive, let’s talk about this backfield. With control of Sunday’s game, Antonio Gibson got 17 touches to just nine for McKissic. In the previous two games, it was McKissic getting the work. He totaled 29 targets in this two games and racked up 27 touches. Gibson had 26 touches and was mostly bailed out by his touchdowns. I would be leaning towards this one being close and Washington not having to play from behind all that much. Even if they trail it shouldn’t get too far out of hand.

The scary part is Gibson only out-snapped McKissic by one measly snap in the best script for him. It’s really a great spot with Dallas ranked 28th in DVOA against the run and are 31st in rush yards allowed per game. We do need to recognize the improvement Dallas has shown the past three weeks. They’re inside the top 10 in rush yards allowed and if that trend kept up, Gibson could be very touchdown dependent. Perhaps it’s because everyone ran on them through most of the season, but Dallas is second-best in receptions allowed to running backs. There’s definitely some facets that don’t jive for Gibson and McKissic. In my eyes, there’s a wide range of outcomes for both but I would lean Gibson of the two.

WR – I’m going to go ahead and play all of the Terry McLaurin, please and thank you. He’s the most expensive skill player on the board and I honestly think he might have the highest ceiling as well. This is a Dallas defense that just got scorched for 11 receptions, 209 yards and three touchdowns by Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson of the Vikings. Minnesota is a run-first team as well and McLaurin has played well with Smith under center as well. He’s hit at least five receptions and 84 yards in every game. The last time McLaurin played Dallas, he racked up 22 DK with 7/90/1. On top of all that, McLaurin is top 10 in total air yards, first in air yards share (among receivers with five games or more) and eighth in target share. He may not get the recognition but McLaurin is an elite receiver this year. Last but not least, the matchup with Cowboys corner Chidobe Awuzie is excellent. Through limited playing time, Awuzie is well over a 2.50 pPT and a 14.8 YPR.

I don’t particularly love Steven Sims or Cam Sims as they aren’t primary targets in this offense. Cam played over 80% of the snaps this past week but yet was only targeted twice. Steven was targeted three times on 32% of the snaps. Either one of these receivers are no better than fourth in the pecking order and that’s tough to want to play, even as a punt. Cam Sims draws Anthony Brown and his 70.3% completion rate allowed while Steven Sims gets Jourdan Lewis and his 110.6 passer rating allowed. You’d have to hope for a total shootout and Smith throwing 40+ times in this one for it to work, but if you’re playing a few lineups you can afford a risk and get different.

TE – There’s some slight appeal to Logan Thomas in that he could hit double digit DK for $1,200 less than Hockenson. However, you’re losing he safety because Thomas has a much lower floor so far. Targets haven’t really been a big issue with Smith as he has 16 in the past three games. Another positive for Thomas is he plays almost all the snaps. In the past three weeks, he’s not been under 90% of the snaps and he runs routes like few others. He boasts a 92.9% route percentage and that’s third among tight ends. Dallas has allowed five scores so Thomas is an option if you don’t punt down to Akins or spend on Hockenson.

D/ST – Washington could potentially check in as the chalkiest unit of the day. There’s plenty of opportunity to fit them in despite being second-highest in salary. The turnovers have been average at best with just 11 in their 10 games but 32 sacks negates whatever weakness is there. The sack number is tied for third in football and up until Sunday, the Dallas offense has been poor without Dak Prescott. They only allow 22.1 points on the season and as long as I can afford them, they would likely be my preferred option with that pass rush.

Priority – McLaurin, D/ST, Gibson, Smith, McKissic, Thomas, Cam Sims, Steven Sims

Dallas – Pace is 1st

QB – Andy Dalton showed some signs of life on Sunday, throwing three touchdowns but only throwing for 203 yards. Hey, baby steps. The biggest issue is that the matchup is drastically different. Washington is ranked inside the top five in DVOA against the pass and they lead the league in passing yards allowed per game. They have also only allowed a 15:9 TD:INT ratio and that doesn’t look like a spot I’d want to attack on the surface. Dalton is sporting a 40.7% completion rate under pressure, 18th in the league. That’s not ideal with Washington in the top six in pressure rate. Furthermore, Smith is cheaper in a much better spot. We can do better than this at quarterback and Dalton might well be my last choice at the position for this slate.

RB – Another player likely to be heavy chalk in any format is Ezekiel Elliott. Despite backup Tony Pollard flashing his big play ability, Zeke logged 23 touches and I don’t think any back on the slate has that type of touch ceiling. He’s under $7,000 since it’s been such a tough season for Zeke but he does at least have seven touchdowns. With Zeke being super easy to fit, I’m likely to eat that chalk in some lineups since I’m not in love with the backs overall. Washington drops off defending the run as opposed to the pass. They are 14th in DVOA against the run and 18th in rush yards allowed per game. There’s always a strong argument to fade popular players that have a floor and Zeke still does have that this year. Before the Vikings game, he had three straight games under nine DK points. He’s the kind of player that I want some exposure to but will have lineups without him.

WR – This remains mostly a CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper zone, but the targets weren’t that far behind for Michael Gallup this past week. There’s one spot that I want to attack the Washington defense through the air and it’s the slot corner. That’s Lamb’s alignment in this offense 85.7% of the times, second-most in football. Of the six targets he got Sunday, two were end zone targets. Lamb will be looking for some redemption after not recording a reception the first time these two teams met. Washington corner Jimmy Moreland is the “weak link” in the secondary with a 68.6% catch rate allowed.

Cooper on the other hand posted 15.5 DK on a 7/80/0, which kind of surprises me. Seeing as he draws Kendall Fuller, I wouldn’t have bet on Cooper here. Fuller is fourth in passer rating allowed at 57.8 and has only allowed 288 yards on 41 targets. I do prefer Lamb but Cooper’s price is very reasonable.

Gallup is perhaps the ultimate GPP play of this offense. He mostly gets Ronald Darby and his 17.1 YPR and Gallup is only three targets away from the lead since Dak was lost for the year. The aDOT is the highest of the trio while all three have three red zone targets. Lamb and Gallup both have more end zone targets than Cooper at a 5-3-2 ratio. Nobody will look at Gallup in this spot but it’s not terrible at all.

TE – If we’re talking tight ends in this game, I don’t think it’s the worst idea to go Dalton Schultz ahead of Thomas. The prices aren’t that far different so it shouldn’t take much to get there. Schultz consistently gets targeted in this offense no matter who has played quarterback, with 30 in the five games without Dak. Overall, he’s racked up a 14.9% target share and an 18.2% red zone share. Schultz has the lowest aDOT of the pass catchers so the safety blanket role seems easy to see. If Cooper and Gallup are potentially muted on the outside, Schultz has some upside. Like Lamb, he didn’t do much the first time with only 2/22. However, this has been a weakness for Washington for most of the season. They’ve already allowed six touchdowns and over 500 yards. Schultz at a couple hundred more than Thomas is intriguing. He and Akins are likely my favorite options at the position.

D/ST – Dallas is right next to Houston in salary and just like Houston, they have few turnovers forced (eight) and are under 20 sacks on the season. Washington is certainly not the most fearsome offense but I’m not really that interested in this unit. Other than the Eagles game, Dallas is just not producing anything for fantasy. Smith is at least a competent quarterback and I’ll save the $100 to play Houston in this range.

Priority – Zeke, Lamb, Cooper, Schultz, Gallup, Dalton

Ravens at Steelers, O/U of 45 (Steelers 4.5)

Ravens – Pace is 28th

QB – It gets harder every week to want to play Lamar Jackson, after another sub-par performance on Sunday. Jackson is not even averaging over 200 yards per game through the air and the rushing production isn’t fully saving him this year. Jackson has been under 19 DK points in six of 10 games so far and I’m finding it hard to suggest him as a Watson pivot. He has one of the more difficult matchups on the board and the first game against Pittsburgh, Jackson was under 50% for completion rate and had four turnovers.

That last part isn’t likely to repeat but Pittsburgh is a difficult matchup for any quarterback. They lead the league in sacks and pressure rate and that’s been a significant issue for Jackson this year. He’s only sitting at a 39.2% completion rate when pressured and is 29th in deep ball completion rate at 28.6%. Watson has the safer floor and might even have the higher ceiling as well. The caveat now is the running back situation for the Ravens. Jackson may have even more on his shoulders in this one, raising the floor and ceiling just a bit.

RB -J.K Dobbins and Gus Edwards rolled up 200 combined yards rushing the first meeting with the Steelers. Now we have news that Dobbins and Mark Ingram are out with Covid. Despite the Steelers being seventh in rushing yards allowed per game on the year, they have allowed the 11th most over the past three weeks. That doesn’t even include the Ravens game. If we kick that in, Pittsburgh has been over 150 rush yards allowed per game the past month. Breaking it down further looks like this –

James Robinson – 73 yards rushing

Bengals RB (four backs split 23 carries) – 139 yards

Tony Pollard – 57 yards

Ezekiel Elliott – 51 yards

J.K. Dobbins – 113 yards

Gus Edwards – 87 yards

Pittsburgh is still sixth in DVOA against the run, but Edwards is now way too cheap for a bell cow role in a rushing offense that ranks first in yards per game. That’s especially true if Pittsburgh’s vulnerability defending the run continues. It’s hard to no just plug it in and get different elsewhere. I would have to assume Baltimore is going to use Justice Hill to some extent, but the Gus Bus sure seems primed for the majority of work.

WR – Someone has to explain to me how you go into a matchup against the Tennessee secondary and target Marquise Brown just three times while Dez Bryant sees five. Of the 431 receiving yards for Brown on the season, 101 came in Week 1 against the Browns. You could argue Brown has been one of the most disappointing players in fantasy this season. This is an example of air yards not always telling the entire story. Brown has a whopping 37.7% of the air yards in this offense and just has so little to show for it. He only has two games of 3x production at this price and will draw Joe Haden for most of the night as well. The veterans corner is still playing strong football, allowing a completion rate under 50% and the fourth-best 1.20 pPT.

I’d much rather play Willie Snead, who has seen his targets explode since Week 8. Snead has a 22.5% target share and 33% of the red zone looks in that time frame. Not only that, but he leads the team in air yards and is ahead of Brown by nine total targets. He scorched Pittsburgh the first time for 18 DK and 106 yards and could do something similar here. If Brown is getting nothing done, someone has to pick up some production and Snead is the next man up. He plays 66.5% of the snaps and draws Mike Hilton in the slot. That’s a good thing for Snead as Hilton has gotten tagged for over a 2.00 pPT. On top of that, he leads the team in receiving yards since Week 8 and PPR points.

Dez Bryant is at least on the radar for a punt. He saw over 50% of the snaps this past week and saw the aforementioned five targets. There wasn’t any red zone work yet but if he got five targets in the first real action since 2017, I wonder if he gets at least the same amount of snaps. Dez had an aDOT of 2.0 (not a typo) so perhaps if Edwards struggles, Dez could be an extension of the passing game? I’m not sold on it totally, but a lineup with him makes some sense.

TE – If we’re just talking talent and role in the offense, Mark Andrews should likely be the TE1 on the slate. He’s coming off his second straight game of at least seven targets and he’s had at least five receptions, 61 yards or a touchdown in both games. The noticeable uptick has come with more snaps and it has coincided with Nick Boyle being lost for the season. Here’s the issue – Baltimore is having issues in their passing game and the Steelers are an elite defense. Going all the way up at this position is kind of difficult, and the first game was without Devin Bush for Pittsburgh as well. You can’t really argue that Andrews doesn’t have to deal with him through the middle. I love the additional snaps and 25.8% target share the past two weeks. It’s just tough to see how he’s successful at this price in the matchup. I believe Andrews is a luxury spend I can’t really afford to jam in as things stand. If Haden can handle Brown, the Steelers can flood the middle of the field to guard Andrews.

D/ST – Baltimore’s defense has tailed off a little bit here lately, only racking up five sacks in the past four weeks. In addition, they’ve generated only 10 turnovers and have had some tough luck on the injury front. Brandon Williams and Calais Campbell are super important cogs in that defensive line. They boast excellent corners but if they can’t generate a lot of pressure, it likely won’t matter. The mid-range salary doesn’t do much for me either against a dangerous offense on the road. Let’s keep an eye on who’s active for them Thursday night.

Priority – Edwards, Snead, Jackson, Andrews, Brown, Bryant, Hill

Steelers – Pace is 23rd

QB – I’m going to be tempted by Ben Roethlisberger in this spot and not just because I’m a Pittsburgh fan. Over the past five games, Big Ben has eclipsed 40 passing attempts four times. Two of those games have produced 28 or more DK and that would rival the ceiling for the other quarterback options on the slate. Roethlisberger isn’t without his flaws this season, but he’s averring almost 2.5 touchdown passes per game and only has five turnovers on the season. He’s answered a lot of questions coming back from elbow surgery, with one notable exception.

The deep ball has been a major issue for Big Ben practically the entire season. He’s been in the bottom five in completion rate on deep balls since the word go and sits inside the top eight in deep attempts. That’s a pretty poor mix and explains why the yards lag behind the touchdown production. Baltimore is just inside the top 10 in DVOA against the pass this season and seventh in passing yards allowed per game. It’s not a plus matchup on paper but if the Ravens front is still hurt and he gets 40+ attempts, this could be a sneaky vintage game for Big Ben.

RB – The usage for James Conner over the past few weeks have been concerning. He’s still generally hitting at least 13 carries but that’s been about the limit. The chances in the red zone have dried up the past month as well, with just five attempts inside the 20. Up until this past Sunday, Conner was averaging 3.1 yards per carry or under. Considering it was the Jacksonville defense on Sunday, I’m not ready to say Pittsburgh has the run game figured out.

Being priced as the third-most expensive back on the slate does him no favors either. The Ravens are ranked third in DVOA against the run and are 16th in rush yards allowed per game. They have allowed seven scores and 55 receptions but there’s not much sticking out in the favor of Conner in this game. In the last month, Benny Snell only has 13 carries and one red zone chance so it’s hard to see where that punt pays off even if he happens to fall into the end zone.

WR – I’m obligated to pump up Diontae Johnson just like every week and he’s among my highest-priority targets on this slate. It’s been simple math so far. When he’s finished a game healthy, he’s had double-digit targets for a massive 29% target share in this offense. I hope game log watchers shy away because of his dud last time. Johnson was evaluated for a hamstring injury in that game early and clearly wasn’t the same after it. The matchup won’t be easy but the volume for that price is astronomical. Marcus Peters is a very good corner and has only allowed a 79.7 passer rating. However, he’s also allowed just about a 62% catch rate and that’s Johnson’s forte.

Chase Claypool already has a serious nose for the end zone and that always leaves him as a super strong play. He leads the team in air yards share at 31.4% and is third in red zone share at 17.5%. Claypool is averaging a touchdown per game with 10 total already and scored the first game. Jimmy Smith was listed as a non-participant in practice Monday, but he played Sunday. Baltimore likely expects him to be in and he has the size and speed to mostly hang with Claypool. Still, Ben loves him and won’t hesitate. The rookie likely has some of the highest touchdown equity of any receiver on the slate and is easily the deep threat for Pittsburgh. It takes one play.

The last piece of the puzzle is JuJu Smith-Schuster. He had a miserable day Sunday and draws Marlon Humphrey in the slot. Humphrey has actually allowed an 88.8 passer rating and JuJu had a solid first game with 13.7 DK points. Smith-Schuster leads the team in red zone and end zone targets and quietly has serious touchdown upside. We need to make sure JuJu is active as he was banged up a little on Sunday. I expect him to suit up here as thing stand. The pricing is very close and I think DK has them priced just right.

TE – Eric Ebron could be a very sneaky option at this position. He has right under a 15% target share in this offense and a 20% share of the red zone looks. Ebron is also tied for third in touchdowns on the team and is the TE12 in PPR. That tends to illustrate how barren this position is but Ebron has at least five targets in each of the past five games. He’s eclipsed double-digit DK points in four of those games and if Roethlisberger drops back another 40 times, he shouldn’t see much of a change in his opportunity this week. The Ravens have allowed over 500 yards and five scores to tight ends so far this year, including one to Ebron in the first matchup.

D/ST – They are the most expensive option but how can they not be? They lead the league in pressure rate, sacks and turnovers. They get an offense that is only 13 yards ahead of the Jets for the least passing yards per game and is now down to their third-string running back. Jackson has been sacked the eighth-most times so far this season and if we can afford them, I’m going to play them. If other defenses are coming in chalkier, this is a great time to pay up for Pittsburgh.

Priority – Johnson, Claypool, D/ST, Roethlisberger, JuJu, Ebron

Core Four – NFL Thanksgiving Day Game By Game Breakdown

Terry McLaurin, Diontae Johnson, Gus Edwards, TBD

We need to see if Swift has any chance of playing in this game before I decide fully on the Core. McLaurin and Johnson are just beyond easy to fit in next to Edwards. Sure, a minimum priced back is going to be popular but there’s many other opportunities to get different on this slate. With a three gamer, it’s best to eat some chalk and have one or two difference makers. A player like Watson is going to be uber chalk but it’s not out of the realm he out-scores every other quarterback by 10 or more DK points. I’d rather be on that side of the equation and go from there.

Let’s have a great Thanksgiving slate my friends! 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!


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