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DraftKings GPP

NFL DFS GPP Advice – Stick’s Stacks for Week 12

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

Week 12 wasn’t as good as I would have liked it to be. We were on a hot run there for a while with our NFL DFS GPP entries based off of the main stacks on this article, but you can’t win them all. I love the way this Week 12 slate is shaping up, so let’s get right to it.

If you read the article and have any questions, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter or sign up for Premium Gold to join our Discord channel.

Like usual, it’s another great week to use 50% or more of your bankroll towards single entry cash games. Please check out my Cash Game Checkdown before you set your DFS lineups for Sunday.

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

The purpose of this weekly article is to identify team/game stacks that we are going to use for an NFL DFS GPP. For those of you that don’t know, a “team stack” is simply multiple players from the same team (I rarely ever use more than three players on a given team).

A “game stack” is similar, except we are going to use players from both teams in a given game. Focusing on team stacks and game stacks is incredibly useful in the NFL DFS GPP environment. That being said, let’s get to this week’s top NFL DFS stacks for DraftKings!

Top NFL DFS GPP Game Stacks

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons (-4) O/U (51)

This game in Atlanta looks to be the only game on the slate with a total higher than 48 points. I’m sure it will be extremely popular, but for good reason. Both of these defenses are pass funnels and both of these defenses rank towards the bottom of the NFL in pass defense DVOA. This game should host a lot of fireworks for DFS players.

The best part about getting exposure to this game is that we know who is going to be involved in the fantasy point production.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Chris Godwin ($7,200)
Mike Evans ($7,300)
Jameis Winston ($6,200)
Scotty Miller ($3,100) – Not sure what to think about Scotty Miller. Let’s classify him as an absolute punt-play who we should probably wait on. Week 11 was only the second time all year he cracked 50% of the snaps.

Atlanta Falcons

Julio Jones ($8,000)
Matt Ryan ($6,700)
Calvin Ridley ($6,500)

Seattle Seahawks @ Philadelphia Eagles (-2) O/U (48)

No longer interested in this game stack. Pivoting to Miami @ Cleveland. Will have some exposure to both teams, but will be underweight here.

The second game that I’m interested in stacking is going to be in Philadelphia. I’m undecided on what I think the pace of this game will play at, but there are plenty of playmakers in this game that should make for a nice game stack. Keep an eye on the status of Tyler Lockett as he is clearly one of the most appealing targets to use in DFS from this matchup.

Top NFL DFS GPP Team Stacks

Cleveland Browns

I didn’t think I’d ever write-up the Cleveland Browns, but they are currently sitting with a 28-point implied total and obviously have a lot of negativity going around in the media. This should be a statement game. This should be a game where Baker Mayfield and the Browns offense go off.

Miami ranks 32nd in pass defense DVOA and 29th against the run. As of now, this is my favorite stack to invest in outside of Tampa Bay @ Atlanta.

Odell Beckham ($7,000)
Jarvis Landry ($6,300)
Nick Chubb ($8,100)
Baker Mayfield ($5,900)
Kareem Hunt ($5,600)

Miami Dolphins

I definitely don’t love the Dolphins by any means, but I do like this game’s chances at going well over the total of 45.5 points. Cleveland should be able to score at will and this Cleveland defense is banged up. Miami should be able to push the pace here and put up points.

DeVante Parker ($5,200)
Mike Gesicki ($3,400)
Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5,000)
Allen Hurns ($3,300)
Kalen Ballage ($4,400) – Not high on him at all.
Patrick Laird ($3,400) – Punt play.

Detroit Lions

If you’re looking for some salary relief that offers a lot of upsides, give the Lions a serious look in your large-field GPPs. The Lions currently have an implied total of 23 points and rising. I probably won’t use three Lions in the same lineup, but I have a lot of interest in Kenny Golladay this week who should see a lot of Josh Norman.

Kenny Golladay ($6,600) – Top Five GPP WR play for me this week (assuming he’s around 5-8% ownership).
Jeff Driskel ($5,500)
Marvin Jones Jr. ($6,100)
T.J. Hockenson ($6,100)
Bo Scarbrough ($4,200) – Not very interested in stacking Scarbrough with Driskel, but could pair him with Detroit’s defense if you want to roll the dice on playing him. Probably better off using him on FanDuel if you want to take this risk.
Detroit Lions DST ($3,100)

Chicago Bears

The Bears are a mess, there is no getting around that. They will be incredibly low owned and have a very nice matchup against a Giants’ team that has allowed 25 or more points in all but one game all year (and that was the Redskins). It’s disgusting, but if Trubisky is healthy, I’ll be over the field in ownership with the Bears. They are a nice salary relief spot to afford other studs in your GPP lineup.

I’ll most likely throw in one of Golden Tate, Darius Slayton, Evan Engram, or Saquon Barkley on the other side of my Bears stacks.

Allen Robinson ($6,500)
Taylor Gabriel ($4,200)
Mitch Trubisky ($5,100)
David Montgomery ($5,500)
Tarik Cohen ($4,800)
Anthony Miller ($3,500)

NFL DFS GPP – Sample Lineup

QB: Mitch Trubisky
RB: Saquon Barkley
RB: Alvin Kamara
WR: Odell Beckham Jr.
WR: Calvin Ridley
WR: Anthony Miller
TE: Vance McDonald
FLEX: Golden Tate
DST: Denver Broncos

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL DFS Week 11 – Stick’s Sleepers

StixPicks 5 years ago

written by StixPicks

We always discuss “getting contrarian” in NFL DFS so it’s about time we posted an article to arm you with some Stick’s Sleepers for your NFL DFS GPP lineups. Whether you’re eating or fading this weeks’ chalky plays, here are five players that may help you differentiate in NFL DFS GPP tournaments.

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The purpose of this weekly article is to identify players in positive situations that the public may be overlooking in NFL DFS. If you’re going to be playing a lot of chalky players like Drew Brees, Christian McCaffrey, Brian Hill, Michael Thomas and some other players with ~30% ownership in Week 11, it’s never a bad idea to find a player or two that will help differentiate your lineup from the rest of the field. Look no further than Stick’s Sleepers.

Week 11 – Stick’s Sleepers

Jameis Winston (DK $6,500 / FD $7,600)

As of now, it’s looking like Jameis Winston is going to come in under 5% owned on both DraftKings and FanDuel in Week 11. While everyone is going to play Drew Brees, why not build your GPP lineups around Jameis Winston?

There are many reasons I’m heavily interested in Winston this week (I’ll probably dive into in more detail on Sunday’s Livestream), but I’ll summarize below.

– New Orleans is currently ranked 7th in run defense DVOA. Yes, Ronald Jones looked solid last week against the Cardinals’ poor excuse of a defense, but that is not going to happen against New Orleans. The Bucs have struggled to run the ball in ~88% of their games this year and I anticipate that being the case in Week 11.

– Game script. Tampa Bay’s defense allows the most points per game in the NFL (31.0). Well, assuming the Saints have no issues putting up points early and often, Winston is going to have to throw the ball A LOT to try to keep this game close. That’s exactly the game script I want when rostering a QB in an NFL DFS GPP.

– We know who to pair with Jameis Winston. We all know how important QB/WR-TE correlation is in NFL DFS. Some of my hardest decisions throughout the week are figuring out what pass catchers to pair with my DFS QBs that I want to play. That isn’t an issue for weeks I use Jameis Winston. It’s Godwin and Evans (and maybe O.J. Howard) plain and simple. It’s likely that Marshon Lattimore misses this game, so that not only boosts up Mike Evans, but also Jameis Winston.

Joe Mixon (DK $5,500 / FD $6,600)

Mixon is going to get the nod for the inaugural Stick’s Sleepers article. I anticipate Mixon being around 10% owned on DraftKings and less than 5% on FanDuel, which makes him an obvious “DFS Sleeper”. I’ll keep this one brief.

– Oakland is allowing ~30 DraftKings points per game to oppose running backs over the past month. The weak spot of this Oakland defense is still the secondary, but they’re not a matchup to completely avoid running backs lately.

– Opportunity. With Ryan Finley now starting at QB for the Bengals, we saw Zac Taylor move to a run-focused offense in Week 10. Maybe Taylor was just trying to run the clock and get the bloodbath over with, but my guess is that he doesn’t have a lot of faith in Finley. Mixon was on the field for over 75% of the Bengals’ offensive snaps for the first time all year (some of that is due to Gio Bernard getting hurt) and should be leaned on heavily again in Week 11 to mitigate Finley’s chances at making mistakes.

– Price. More applicable to DraftKings, but Mixon is extremely affordable and helps us pay up for guys like McCaffrey and Michael Thomas. In terms of opportunity and price, Mixon looks like a perfect guy to pay down for in your NFL DFS GPP lineups.

Julian Edelman (DK $7,600 / FD $7,400)

No one seems to be interested in rostering a Patriot in DFS this week and I’m not quite sure why. Yes, there are plenty of other games to focus on for DFS exposure, but why would you not include the Patriots pass-catchers in your player pool against a true pass-funnel defense in Philadelphia?

Edelman gets an insane amount of targets week in, week out and is projected for 22 DraftKings points on my model. Assuming the Patriots’ game-plan is to attack this Philadelphia defense’s weak spot (their secondary), Edelman should be in store for one of his best fantasy outings on the season.

Chris Conley (DK $4,400 / FD $5,500)

Now it’s time to get a little cute. If you watch the Sunday Livestream at Win Daily, you know I love to tout a 1% owned, flyer type of player. This week, my guy is going to be Chris Conley. I re-watched the portion of Foles’ last game (Week 1 against KC) and really liked what I saw regarding the rapport between Conley and Foles. Take that for whatever it is worth, lol.

With Foles back, I think everyone gets a bump up on this Jaguars offense. D.J. Chark is certainly in play, but I’d rather take the savings Conley offers so we can continue to build around those expensive studs I’ve mentioned earlier in the article.

Dallas Goedert (DK $3,200 / FD $5,000)

If you read the cash game article from earlier in the week, you know I’m confident in Dallas Goedert this week. We always want to love Zach Ertz, but I truly believe Belichick and the Patriots’ will scheme to take Ertz out of the picture on Sunday (especially if Alshon Jeffrey misses the game with an injury).

DeSean Jackson is done for the year, so I know Philadelphia is going to go back to their two tight-end packages quite often against the Patriots. Goedert is an excellent route runner and should be a heavy focus in the Eagles passing game with or without Alshon Jeffrey suiting up. He is an excellent 1% owned DFS punt-play who will be on the field for over 70% of the Eagles’ offensive snaps.

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS GPP Advice – Stick’s Stacks for Week 11

brgrewe@gmail.com 5 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

Week 10 was another great week for NFL DFS GPP cashing for myself and a lot of the Win Daily Team. Even the sample lineup from last week’s Stick’s Stacks went off for a total of 191.50 DraftKings points! Let’s keep it rolling!

If you read the article and have any questions, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter or sign up for Premium Gold to join our Slack channel.

Like usual, it’s another great week to use 50% or more of your bankroll towards single entry cash games. Please check out my Cash Game Checkdown before you set your DFS lineups for Sunday. Lets get to work on Stick’s Stacks for Week 11.

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

Top NFL DFS GPP Game Stacks

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6) O/U (50)

The Saints laid an egg last week, we all know that. That will not happen again this week on the road in Tampa Bay against a Bucs’ defense that is brutal at defending the pass. New Orleans has an implied total of ~28 points and I’m confident they’ll get to that mark (if not passed it). Both of these defenses are extremely strong against the run, so we should see a lot of the action done through the air, which is great for DFS.

New Orleans Saints

Drew Brees ($6,900)
Michael Thomas ($9,900)
Alvin Kamara ($7,400)
Jared Cook ($4,400)
Tre’Quan Smith ($3,800)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Chris Godwin ($7,300)
Mike Evans ($7,400)
Jameis Winston ($6,500)
O.J. Howard ($3,600)

Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens (-4.5) O/U (51)

The game with the highest total on the slate is always something to look at when deciding on where to get exposure in your DFS lineups. This game should give us all of the fireworks were looking for in a NFL DFS GPP. Both teams have a below-average pass rush and both teams can put up points in a hurry.

Lamar Jackson is a fantasy superstar. We don’t need to discuss that in greater detail. But, the Ravens haven’t played in close game since Week Six, so we should finally see a game where Lamar Jackson needs to make plays with his arm, not just his feet. If Houston can keep this close, this is going to be an absolute shoot-out.

Houston Texans

Deshaun Watson ($6,800)
DeAndre Hopkins ($8,100)
Will Fuller ($5,800)
Duke Johnson ($4,000)

Baltimore Ravens

Lamar Jackson ($7,700)
Marquise Brown ($5,600)
Mark Andrews ($6,100)
Mark Ingram ($6,600)
Willie Snead ($3,900)

Top NFL DFS GPP Team Stacks

New England Patriots

It doesn’t appear that anyone in the DFS community is touting this Patriots’ offense. Both Philadelphia and New England have had two weeks to prep for this matchup, so they should be fresh and prepared to execute. Philadelphia is a clear pass-funnel defense and I expect Belichick and Brady carve them up through the air. This is an excellent stack to get a little contrarian and they’re all affordable.

Julian Edelman ($7,600)
Tom Brady ($6,400)
Mohamed Sanu ($5,100)
James White ($5,400)

Carolina Panthers

The Falcons’ defense balled out last week, but I still won’t take them seriously. Atlanta ranks 31st in pass defense DVOA and that is something I cannot ignore. I’ll have some exposure to this Carolina offense in Week 11.

Christian McCaffrey ($10,500)
D.J. Moore ($5,900)
Curtis Samuel ($5,300)
Kyle Allen ($5,300)
Greg Olsen ($3,900)

Sample NFL DFS GPP Lineup

QB: Lamar Jackson
RB: Duke Johnson
RB: James White
WR: D.J. Moore
WR: Chris Godwin
WR: Marquise Brown
TE: Jared Cook
FLEX: Josh Jacobs
DST: Washington Redskins

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS GPP Advice – Stick’s Stacks for Week 10

brgrewe@gmail.com 5 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

Hopefully you all enjoyed a solid week of cashing in Week Nine NFL DFS GPP tournaments! We have another slimmer player pool to choose from coming up in Week 10 with only 10 games on the main slate. Let’s keep it rolling!

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Top NFL DFS GPP Game Stacks

Arizona Cardinals @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5) O/U (51)

If you’re looking for an up-paced game to stack in Week 10 DFS, look no further. Both of these defenses sit in the top three for fantasy points allowed per game on DraftKings and both of these offenses love to play fast. All signs point to a shootout here and I’ll be heavily invested on getting exposure to this game. Better yet, it’s not too difficult to figure out where the production is going to come from.

In terms of game stacks, this looks like it’s the only game I want to fully invest in for my main NFL DFS GPP lineups. I’m going to have a rather narrow player pool this week and really take a stance on where I want to go for exposure (outside of obvious one-offs).

Arizona Cardinals

Kyler Murray ($6,500)
Christian Kirk ($5,200)
Larry Fitzgerald ($5,500)
David Johnson ($5,700) – Personally, I’ll be underweight on these AZ running backs. I don’t want to guess on who is going to get the most opportunity and the Tampa Bay run defense is stout. Leave these RBs to larger field GPPs or MME style of DFS.
Kenyan Drake ($5,500) – See above.

Tampa Bay Bucanneers

Chris Godwin ($7,400)
Mike Evans ($7,600)
Ronald Jones ($4,300)
Jameis Winston ($6,800)
Breshad Perriman ($3,000) – Excellent punt play if you have to save some salary but still get exposure to this game. Over 60% snap share in the past two weeks and starting to get some targets.
Cameron Brate ($3,700) & O.J. Howard ($3,300) – Not sure you want to mess with either of these tight ends, but they are playing the Cardinals’ defense, who bleed points to opposing tight ends.

Top NFL DFS GPP Team Stacks

New Orleans Saints

No surprise here that we are extremely interested in the New Orleans Saints’ offense at home in the dome, against the Falcons. EVERYONE torches the Falcons in 2019 and this game will be no different. The Falcons defense is brutal in all aspects of the game, but I really like to pick on them with opposing quarterbacks and wide receivers (their secondary ranks dead last in coverage according to Pro Football Focus).

The Saints have an implied team total of 32 points, which is almost five points higher than anyone else on the board. They are a 13-point favorite against Atlanta, so there are certainly blowout concerns that lead to a run-heavy, second half game script.

I still strongly believe Drew Brees and Michael Thomas are the best duo to pair together this week in DFS. They’ll still have their chances to do damage and hit value for our lineups. At this time, I’m not sure I really want to play anyone on the Atlanta side of the ball besides Austin Hooper and a few shares of Julio Jones, Matt Ryan, and Calvin Ridley. You can definitely game stack this game as you know Atlanta will have to pass a ton.

Michael Thomas ($8,300)
Drew Brees ($6,700)
Tedd Ginn Jr. ($3,700)
Alvin Kamara ($8,200) – Too expensive in my opinion unless we hear news that he won’t be splitting snaps with Latavius Murray. Which I don’t see as a feasible game-plan.
Latavius Murray ($7,300) – Time share concerns? One of these running backs is going to score a touchdown or two.
Jared Cook ($4,100) – Large field GPPs.
New Orleans Saints DST ($3,700)

Kansas City Chiefs

It appears Patrick Mahomes will be returning this week so needless to say, we are going to be interested in the Chiefs’ offense. If you’ve been reading the articles the last couple of weeks, you know I love to pick on the Titans’ secondary (who are now missing Malcolm Butler with injury). If Mahomes is a go, this is a matchup we should be licking our chops for.

As of now, it looks like the public is not going too heavy on the Chiefs’ offense this week. Let’s buy in while the ownership is down.

Tyreek Hill ($7,700) – We loved Mike Evans in Week Eight in this matchup and he went off. We loved D.J. Moore in this matchup last week and he went off. Tyreek Hill is more explosive and a better route runner than both of them…
Patrick Mahomes ($7,000)
Travis Kelce ($6,400)
Sammy Watkins ($5,100)
Damien Williams ($4,900) – 70%+ snap share last week. I want to have a share of Kansas City in every GPP lineup I make this week. If I’m not using Mahomes and a pass catcher(s) in a lineup, I’ll have Damien Williams in there.

Baltimore Ravens

It’s hard to overlook the Ravens’ offense this week in an absolute smash matchup against the Bengals with an implied total of 28 points. We have blowout concerns as the Ravens are favored by 10 points on the road, but you can always consider Lamar Jackson and the Ravens’ offense against a sieve defense (who ranks around the third worst in terms of passing and running defense DVOA).

Lamar Jackson ($7,300)
Marquise Brown ($5,100) – Great price for a home-run type of DFS play.
Mark Ingram ($7,100)
Mark Andrews ($5,200)
Willie Snead ($4,000)

Sample NFL DFS GPP Lineup

QB: Kyler Murray
RB: Christian McCaffrey
RB: Ronald Jones
WR: Christian Kirk
WR: Chris Godwin
WR: Marquise Brown
TE: Mike Gesicki
FLEX: David Montgomery
DST: Pittsburgh Steelers

5 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL

Week 9 DFS RB Picks: Cash, GPP and Value Targets

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’re entering the NFL’s Week 9 DFS plays with the best RB picks for the main slate, including cash, GPP and some contrarian plays for you to win big!

Sign up NOWfor WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chatsand more!

Week 9 DFS Running Back – Cash Game Plays

Dalvin Cook, MIN at KC

DK ($9,500) FD ($9,000)

Cook has as much upside as any fantasy RB in football,excluding maybe Christian McCaffrey (more on him later), with the highestfloor. He’s the top play this week in cash games and despite the huge price tagand ownership, he’s worth a look in all formats. Lock the dude in against a badrun defense and what should be a high-scoring, relatively closely-matched affair.

Chris Carson, SEA vs. TB

DK ($7,200) FD ($8,200)

Carson has just one TD and one target last week but rushed for 90 yards and remains an affordable, elite fantasy RB with plenty of upside. There’s a chance the Seahawks throw a bit more this week facing a Bucs defense that’s vulnerable in its secondary, but that’s not keeping me away from one the most consistent value plays in the game.

Week 9 DFS Running Back – GPP Plays

Christian McCaffrey, CAR vs.TEN

DK ($10,000) FD ($9,700)

McCaffrey was limited at practice due to a knee injury, but Ron Rivera said he’s not concerned, so should we be? I may not be playing him a $10,000 on DK in too many cash games, but the “injury” and the price could keep a few more folks from clicking his name in GPPs. He’s still involved in all aspects of the Carolina offense, and is on track for another 5-10 targets and 20+ fantasy points, even if he’s not 100 percent.

Josh Jacobs, OAK vs. DET

DK ($6,500) FD ($7,200)

The Lions run defense isn’t wonderful, and Jacobs gets aton of touches. Huis ownership could be down coming off a poor showing atHouston and the big red “Q” that’s next to his name right now because he was listedas a limited participant at Wednesday’s practice. But Jacobs played through whatevershoulder issue he’s been having last week, and there have been no reportedsetbacks in that game. I’m guessing the team is just limiting his practice repsin advance of this weekend’s matchup against Detroit, which is just fine.

Le’Veon Bell, NYJ at MIA

DK ($7,700) FD ($7,000)

Here’s where things could get a little dicey, but alsoprofitable. The Dolphins defense is no match for a healthy, engaged Bell, andeven dumb-bucket Jets head coach Adam Gase knows it. Gase blames himself forBell getting only 12 touches in Sunday’s pathetic 29-15 loss to the Jaguars, andspent this week trying to trade everyone under the sun before copping to hismiscues. I do think that since he couldn’t trade Bell (which he can’t now, sothere’s no reason to limit his usage) he’ll give him a full complement oftouches and Bell should see plenty of opportunity to pay off his price tag onboth sites.

Nick Chubb, CLE at DEN

DK ($7,300) FD ($8,100)

Chubb rushed for 131 yards on 20 carries against thePatriots, a notoriously tough defense to run on. This week, he gets the Broncos,who are not as good, in a contest that should be a lot closer and require justas much running from the former Georgia Bulldog. He should also have more usagein the passing game (26 targets over six weeks before last week’s one-target debacle)and probably won’t fumble twice in Denver. Jump on this under-the-radar talentin GPPs.

Marlon Mack, IND at PIT

DK ($6,300) FD ($6,900)

Mack ran for 76 yards and a score on 19 carries, adding a14-yard catch during Sunday’s 15-13 battle over Denver (which followed a slowweek against the Texans), and he faces a decent Steelers run defense this timearound. Again – he sees a lot of touch volume and won’t draw large ownershiplevels in GPPs. The price came up slightly but I’m buying this week.

Jaylen Samuels, PIT vs. IND

DK ($4,000) FD ($5,000)

James Connor is still dinged up and questionable for Sunday’s game, while Samuels practiced fully on Wednesday and looks like he could be the bell cow if Connor and Benny Snell are both on the shelf against Indy. His ownership will be sky-high if both those Steelers RBs are inactive, but it’ll be worth it for the role he’ll have – along with the 20-25 point upside.

Also consider: Phillip Lindsay (wrist), Aaron Jones (shoulder),Derrick Henry, Jamaal Williams

Week 9 DFS Running Back – Contrarian GPP Plays

Austin Ekeler, LAC vs. GB

DK ($6,000) FD ($6,500)

I’ll never understand why coaches like Anthony Lynn getaway from the guys who have been successful, but such is the case. Giving Ekelerjust three carries and three targets would have been a bigger story had the Chargerslost (and they should have), but we can guess that he’ll have a larger workloadthis week, where the shifty back should dominate the backfield touches againstan opponent that could jump out to a lead. It doesn’t necessarily have to be a negativegame script for Ekeler to succeed, so I’ll be using him once again in GPPs forhis massive upside – even if he continues to split with the less versatile MelvinGordon.

Ty Johnson, DET at OAK

DK ($4,900) FD ($5,500)

This play is not for the faint of heart, and it’s going tobe tough to click his name after what happened in Week 8. I know – I feel you.But Tough Guy Ty was on everybody’s list last week for a reason. He’s got a fewthings going against him this week, but his ownership will be a fraction of whatit was a week ago, and we have to take some contrarian chances in DFS.

Also consider: Jordan Howard, LeSean McCoy, Damien Williams,Tarik Cohen

Week 9 DFS Running Back – Value/Punt Plays

David Montgomery, CHI at PHI

DK ($5,200) FD ($6,600)

Montgomery had his breakout game last week (27 carries, 135rushing yards, TD; 4-12-0 receiving) as we profiled him in this same “valueplay” section. The price has come up a bit, but he’s still a veritable bargain andfaces an Eagles defense that’s only slightly better than the Chargers.

Devin Singletary, BUF vs. WAS

DK ($4,700) FD ($6,100)

The Bills are at home facing Washington this week, and they’reeager to shake off the display they put on against the Eagles. Expect a lot moretouches coming to Singletary as the team finds more ways to get him the ball.

Royce Freeman, DEN vs. CLE

DK ($4,900) FD($5,700)

Freeman could see an increased workload this week if PhillipLindsay (wrist) can’t play, and the matchup against the Browns is a juicy one.

Mark Walton, MIA vs. NYJ

DK ($4,500) FD ($5,700)

With Kenyan Drake off to Arizona, Walton has taken over aslead back for Miami. While he didn’t find much running room against theSteelers on Monday night, he has a solid matchup against the Jets’ porous rundefense in Week 9.

Additional plays: Tra Carson, Frank Gore, Chris Thompson (toe)

Monkey Knife Fight Picks of the Week

Pick the Players that will get the most Fantasy Points

Goal: 65.5, Prize: 2x — D. Cook, L. Bell & M. Mack

These three RBs have solid matchups and are poised to have big days. It’s an RB article, so I restricted my MKF picks here to RBs. Mix in a WR if you’re not feeling an all-RB crew!

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports

NFL DFS GPP Advice – Stick’s Stacks for Week 9

Brandon C. Williams 5 years ago

written by Brandon C. Williams

Week Eight was by far my most profitable week on the 2019 DFS season. We absolutely smashed our cash games and finished top-five in multiple single entry NFL DFS GPP tournaments! Hell, even the sample lineup from last week’s Stick’s Stacks scored 202.2 DraftKings points! I hope you played it!

As you saw in my articles last week and heard on the Win Daily Sunday Livestream, my three favorite spots to get exposure to were the following:

Oakland Raiders @ Houston Texans
New York Giants @ Detroit Lions (had a lot of exposure to Darius Slayton, Barkley, and Stafford/Golladay)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Mike Evans as our top WR play on the slate)

Let’s keep it rolling again in Week Nine where we have one of our smaller slates on the year with just 10 games on the main slate. If you read the article and have any questions, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter or sign up for Premium Gold to join our Slack channel.

Like usual, it’s another great week to use 50% or more of your bankroll towards single entry cash games. Please check out my Cash Game Checkdown before you set your DFS lineups for Sunday. Lets get to work on Stick’s Stacks for Week Nine.

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

Top NFL DFS GPP Game Stacks

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Seattle Seahawks (-6) O/U (52.5)

This game in Seattle looks to be one of the heavier chalk games on the slate in the DFS world – and I’ll probably be overweight on it as well. There’s obviously plenty of reasons to love the Seahawks’ passing game here so we won’t go into detail on that. Opposing teams are throwing over 64% of the time against Seattle, so for Tampa, we just need Jameis Winston to play well and not throw five picks for him to hit value.

Tampa has a top-five run defense and has been a pass-funnel defense all year long, so there is clearly merit with loving the Seahawks’ air attack this week. If they can put up points in a hurry, Jameis Winston and the Bucs should be forced to throw it 45+ times and lead to a shootout.

What’s great about this game is it’s not difficult to handicap where the production is going to come from on either team. This is a perfect game to stack up!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Chris Godwin ($7,300) – I’m much higher on Godwin this week in comparison to Evans. Only using Evans in lineups where I stack this game.
Mike Evans ($7,200)
Jameis Winston ($6,100)
Cameron Brate ($3,100)

Seattle Seahawks

Russell Wilson ($7,100)
Tyler Lockett ($7,500)
Chris Carson ($7,200)
DK Metcalf ($5,700)
Jacob Hollister ($2,800) – Large field GPP only.

Detroit Lions @ Oakland Raiders (-2) O/U (50.5)

Back to back weeks of having a lot of interest in both the Lions’ and Raiders’ offenses. Both of these defenses have struggled of late and it’s one of the highest expected totals on the slate with a tight spread.

The Lions’ running game looked absolutely broken last week now that Kerryon Johnson is on IR. This is another week where we can be confident in Stafford and company moving the ball via the pass. That slow-paced, run-first Lions’ gamescript is no longer a thing. In addition, the Raiders have allowed the most DraftKings points to opposing QB’s over the past month.

On the other side, the Raiders should have no issues moving the ball as the Lions have allowed the fourth most DraftKings’ points to both opposing QB’s and RB’s in their last three games. Keep an eye on whether or not Darius Slay suits up for this one, but I don’t think he’s anything you need to be truly concerned about from a DFS perspective.

Detroit Lions

Kenny Golladay ($7,700)
Matthew Stafford ($6,800)
Danny Amendola ($4,700) – Wish he was cheaper, but this is a great spot for a guy coming off of back to back weeks of nearly 70% snap share. He should destroy Lamarcus Joyner.
Marvin Jones Jr. ($6,000)
T.J. Hockenson ($3,700)

Oakland Raiders

Darren Waller ($6,300)
Josh Jacobs ($6,500)
Derek Carr ($5,500)
Tyrell Williams ($5,900)
Zay Jones ($3,000) – MME punt play.

Minnesota Vikings @ Kansas City Chiefs (TBD) O/U (TBD)

At first glance, it’s looking like this game isn’t drawing much attention from the DFS community early in the week. This can obviously change quickly if Patrick Mahomes were to be ruled in, but all signs point to Matt Moore being under center for this one.

I don’t want to completely stack this game up, but I will have exposure to both of these offenses in my NFL DFS GPP roster builds.

Minnesota Vikings

Dalvin Cook ($9,500)
Stefon Diggs ($7,600)
Kirk Cousins ($6,700)
Adam Thielen ($7,800) – Keep an eye on his injury status

Kansas City Chiefs

Tyreek Hill ($7,400)
Travis Kelce ($6,900)
Sammy Watkins ($4,900)
Matt Moore ($4,800)

Top DFS GPP Team Stacks

Carolina Panthers

Naturally, I like to be a little contrarian with some of my GPP builds and stacks for larger field GPPs. Last week, I had faith in the Bears and they let me down a bit, but my lineups with David Montgomery absolutely smashed. This week, I’m going to do a stack or two with the Carolina Panthers.

Tampa Bay paid off for us last week, so why not pick on this Tennessee secondary once again this week? They’re extremely banged up and truthfully, I don’t respect their secondary when healthy. McCaffrey is always in play, but if you want to leverage away from McCaffrey ownership in a GPP, use Kyle Allen and one or two of these wideouts.

D.J. Moore ($4,800) – Absolutely love his spot this week. He will probably be a lock for me in cash games and heavily involved as salary relief in my main GPP builds.
Christian McCaffrey ($10,000)
Curtis Samuel ($4,300)
Kyle Allen ($5,200)
Greg Olsen ($3,500)

Chicago Bears

Who am I kidding? I’ll go back to the well once more this week in one or two large-field GPP tournaments with a Bears stack (probably safer to just use two Bears at most). You don’t need them to go off as they really open up your ability to pay up for a pair of top-tier RBs (just look at last week’s sample GPP lineup!). We’ve been picking on this Eagles’ pass defense all year so there’s no reason to stop now.

Allen Robinson ($6,800)
Mitch Trubisky ($5,000)
Taylor Gabriel ($3,900)
Anthony Miller ($3,700)
David Montgomery ($5,200)

Sample NFL DFS GPP Lineup

QB: Mitch Trubisky
RB: Dalvin Cook
RB: Jaylen Samuels (make sure Conner is out)
WR: Allen Robinson
WR: Tyler Lockett
WR: D.J. Moore
TE: Cameron Brate
FLEX: Nick Chubb
DST: Washington Redskins

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports Premium

NFL DFS GPP Advice – Stick’s Stacks for Week Eight

brgrewe@gmail.com 5 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

Week Seven was another fun and profitable week. I was really hoping for Davante Adams to return to action so I could use the Packers as my main stack, but as you saw in last week's Stick's Stacks, I was only going to go overweight on Rodgers and the Packers if Adams was in. Although I was way more u...

5 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL

NFL DFS GPP Advice – Stick’s Stacks for Week Seven

brgrewe@gmail.com 5 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

Week Six was incredible for the Win Daily Team – and personally my best ROI so far on the season. Hopefully you checked out the stacks in last week’s post and got your NFL DFS GPP lineups across the pay-line. Our top two game stacks went off and we had some sneaky production out of Devonta Freeman and Carlos Hyde at very low ownership.

If you read the article and have any questions, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter or sign up for Premium Gold to join our Slack channel.

Like usual, it’s another great week to use 50% or more of your bankroll towards single entry cash games. Please check out my Cash Game Checkdown before you set your DFS lineups for Sunday. Lets get to work on Stick’s Stacks for Week Seven.

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Top NFL DFS GPP Game Stacks

Los Angeles Rams @ Atlanta Falcons (54)

This game’s total just keeps climbing and I wouldn’t be surprised if it closes around 56 points… which is quite high. This is by far my favorite game to attack and as of now, will be the heart and soul of my main GPP lineups. Although I still respect the Rams’ defense, we always love Matt Ryan at home and Los Angeles just lost one of their better corners, Aqib Talib, for quite some time (they also just acquired Jalen Ramsey and traded Marcus Peters).

Long story short, I’m most likely going to be super overweight with my exposure to this game and I think you should be too. I’ll update this article once I have a better grasp on ownership projections but I highly doubt I’ll find any reason to fade this game. As of now, this is the only true “game stack” I’m personally investing in.

Los Angeles Rams

Jared Goff ($6,200) – My favorite QB play on the slate.
Cooper Kupp ($7,400) – Smash matchup assuming he sees a lot of Damontae Kazee in the slot.
Brandin Cooks ($5,400) – I’m assuming he’ll be less than 10% owned which is a nice pivot away from Kupp/Woods who will be higher owned. I may pair Cooks with Kupp or Woods in my main lineup. Kendall Sheffield is insanely fast (just like Cooks), but is brutal in coverage. Cooks blowup day coming.
Robert Woods ($5,900) – Great price, great matchup.
Gerald Everett ($3,700) – Everyone who stacks this game is going to play Austin Hooper. Excellent pivot play with low ownership projected.
Todd Gurley ($6,400) – No interest in Malcolm Brown ($5,700) at his price. If Gurley sits and Brown is “limited”, Darrell Henderson ($3,500) becomes a free square lock.

Atlanta Falcons

Julio Jones ($8,000) – My guess is it will be a mix of Troy Hill and Jalen Ramsey tasked with covering Julio Jones. Ramsey is arguably the top cornerback in the NFL but Jones is one of the best receivers in the NFL. Assuming this lowers Julio Jones’ ownership a bit, I’m all for getting shares of him.
Matt Ryan ($6,300)
Calvin Ridley ($5,300) – Incredible route runner. Will also see a mix of Troy Hill and Jalen Ramsey. Ridley can burn them both.
Austin Hooper ($5,300) – Chalk, chalk, chalk. Love him in cash, like him in GPPs, but he will come with very high ownership(rightfully so).
Devonta Freeman ($5,400) – Great price, but this Rams’ defense is stout against the run. If we roll out Freeman, we are hoping that he scores two touchdowns and catches four or more passes (which is entirely possible). I don’t see him being over 100 all-purpose yards, but he should be low-owned.
Mohamed Sanu ($4,600) – Cheap exposure to the highest scoring game on the slate. He makes perfect sense for salary relief in a game stack lineup but his ceiling is limited.

Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts (47)

I don’t really like to stack this game up at all, but I will diversify my exposure a little bit as I cant go 100% all in with LAR/ATL… or can I?

The Texans currently sit with an implied team total of only 23 points and they just lost rookie right tackle, Tytus Howard, for multiple games. I usually only like Watson and company when they have time to make plays (which will be limited without Howard) but there aren’t many other options for us this week.

With Watson’s rushing ability and Houston’s receivers playmaking abilities, I’ll stack them up if they’re going to be low-owned. I’ll update the article later in the week if I fall out of love with Houston’s offense in Week Seven for my NFL DFS GPP lineups.

Houston Texans

Deshaun Watson ($7,000)
DeAndre Hopkins ($7,800)
Will Fuller ($6,200)
Keke Coutee ($3,600) – Excellent punt play if you need a salary relief player in any DFS build this week.

Indianapolis Colts

Houston’s defense is banged up across the board. I don’t think this game is likely to shoot-out, but I will have some exposure to both teams just in case. Houston allows the most receptions to opposing running backs, so it’s a nice spot for Marlon Mack (even though he rarely runs six plus routes in a game).

I really only included this matchup as a game stack due to the Colts’ low pricing. Rostering a few high-upside Colts’ players and maybe stacking them with one of the Houston receivers should lead to a very nice roster build.

T.Y. Hilton ($5,900)
Jacoby Brissett ($5,600)
Marlon Mack ($6,000)
Colts Defense ($2,000) – So cheap and should be in a nice spot to get three or more sacks. Great for a GPP.

Top NFL DFS GPP Team Stacks

Green Bay Packers

I’ll only stack the Packers if Davante Adams is in. I’m not concerned with Marquez Valdes-Scantling or anyone really in this timeshare at the running back position. This is an Oakland team that really struggles to defend the pass, so if Rodgers has healthy weapons, we can take advantage of that.

I’ll update this section when we hear more about Adams’ status.

Aaron Rodgers ($6,400)
Davante Adams ($7,600)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($5,200) – Seemed to be injured on Sunday Night but everything I’m hearing says it’s not a concern.
Allen Lazard ($3,000) – Incredible value if Adams and/or Valdes-Scantling were to miss this game.
Jimmy Graham ($4,200) – Hate the price. Would only use if it’s part of a MME style of NFL DFS GPP… Same with these Packers’ running backs.

Arizona Cardinals

I’ll always stack the Cardinals if they’re facing a weaker defensive opponent. I’m starting to respect the Giants’ defense more and more each week (I’m not really sure why) but I will have a few Cardinals stacks out there in Week Seven.

Kyler Murray ($6,700)
David Johnson ($7,800)
Larry Fitzgerald ($6,100) – I’ve mentioned in the cash game writeup how I am seriously concerned with Fitzgerald’s ceiling, but he’s a lock for double-digit points. We need him to score touchdowns if we’re going to climb up the GPP leaderboards.
Christian Kirk ($5,000) – Optimistic that he finally returns to action in Week Seven.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Absolute punt of a stack. If you need some salary relief for other studs, I am really liking the idea of a Minshew-Chark-Fournette Jaguars stack. Just load up on some Rams/Falcons playmakers with those three (or just Fournette) and enjoy a mild pay-day.

Leonard Fournette ($7,000) – My top RB on the slate.
Gardner Minshew ($5,400)
D.J. Chark ($6,000)

Buffalo Bills

They currently have the highest implied team total on the slate so you cannot ignore them. Personally, I’m thinking this is a nice spot to fade. I can only hope this team draws a lot of ownership in DFS and justifies a fade, but I’m not sure that will be the case.

They are without a doubt in a smash spot. The 16-point spread has me thinking this is a run-heavy offense coming from Buffalo. Maybe Josh Allen and these receivers do some severe damage early and still put up a big fantasy output.

Josh Allen ($6,500)
John Brown ($5,500) – $500 cheaper than Terry McLaurin was last week… Brown can 100% replicate the monster game McLaurin just posted on this Miami secondary.
Duke Williams ($4,100)
Frank Gore ($5,200)

Sample NFL DFS GPP Lineup

QB: Jared Goff
RB: Leonard Fournette
RB: Dalvin Cook
WR: Robert Woods
WR: Brandin Cooks
WR: Calvin Ridley
TE: T.J. Hockenson
FLEX: Chris Carson
DST: Indianapolis Colts

5 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports PGA

PGA DFS Picks: The CJ CUP

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’ll explore some of the top golfers in the CJ CUP focusing on closers who can finish in the Top 10.

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Quick Course Notes:

Course: The Club at Nine Bridges (Par: 72 – Yardage: 7,184 – Greens: Bentgrass)
The Club at Nine Bridges is on Jeju Island – 60 miles south of mainland South Korea and hosts the CJ Cup for the third consecutive year.
No-cut event featuring 78 golfers.
Wind could be a factor this week.
Top stats we’ll focus on are Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Par 5s Gained, Scrambling & Strokes Gained: Approach

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $10K and up):

Brooks Koepka (DK $11,400, FD $11,900) – He won here last year and this course sets up perfectly for him – especially since we can remove the variables of a slow start. Koepka checks all the boxes and can handle adverse conditions anywhere in the world. Even if he’s not hitting fairways, he’s an excellent scrambler with patience and the ability to get strokes back in a hurry.

Justin Thomas (DK $11,700, FD $12,000) – If you don’t play Koepka, you should play Thomas, who won here in 2017. He’s been incredibly steady lately with nothing worse than Top 12 finishes in his last seven starts worldwide, including a T4 at the Safeway Open a few weeks ago. Taking Koepka & Thomas leaves you with $6,725 per golfer on DK in a studs-and-scrubs approach, and I’ll be building more than a couple lineups this way with no cut looming over the scrubs.

Tommy Fleetwood (DK $10,300, FD $10,900) – Pairing Koepka with Fleetwood leaves us $7,075 per golfer, and the Englishman’s form is solid – with a T5 at the Alfred Dunhill Links championship in late September. He’s currently fifth on the European Tour in GIR and sixth in scoring average, and he ranked 12^th in SG: Off the Tee in 2019. I might have some GPPs with just Fleetwood ($7,940 per the remaining five golfers), or Koepka ($7,720 per the remaining five) among the elite picks and go for a more balanced approach with the remaining five golfers.

Hideki Matsuyama (DK $10,700, FD $11,100) – Matsuyama is the weakest golfer of these elite picks, and his form isn’t great (three MC in his last eight starts). But with no cut, maybe he can find his game and use his strengths (power/ball-striking combo and precision approaches) to dominate Nine Bridges, where he debuted with a T18 last year.

Also consider: Colliin Morikawa, Victor Hovland

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $8K to $10K):

Sungjae Im (DK $9,700, FD $10,300) – There’s probably not a harder working golfer around, and Im’s packed schedule certainly keeps him busy. But the top-ranked South Korean national hasn’t missed a cut since The Open Championship and he finished in second place at Sanderson Farms in mid-September. He took a rare but much-needed week at the Shriner’s after a T49 at the Safeway, and his recharged batteries could provide a nice narrative if he can contend at home.

Sergio Garcia (DK $9,100, FD $9,800) – We’re getting Garcia in excellent form, at a considerable discount from some of his European peers, and without a cut – a consequential footnote considering his predilection for poor behavior and insane blowups. While he failed to advance to the BMW Championship during the recent FedEx Cup Playoffs, he has since posted a Top 25 at the Omega European Masters, won the KLM Open on the European Tour in mid-September and most recently finished T7 in the Spanish Open.

Rafa Cabrera-Bello (DK $9,600, FD $10,100) – Garcia isn’t the only Spaniard we have to watch in this tourney. RCB has improved on a couple of key stats recently (GIR and SG: Putting), and he arrives in good form after a solo second in the Spanish Open a couple weeks ago. He’s also nabbed a T11 and T3 at the CJ CUP. I worry that he’s not the best closer, but there’s a good chance at a Top 10 finish and if he fits, I’ll use him.

Matthew Wolff (DK $8,800, FD $9,300) – Wolff is a star on the rise with a big, quirky swing that belies a balanced game and interesting fit to this golf course. He’s making his debut here, but he finished T10 at the Safeway Open and should benefit from the no-cut structure and he might improve each day he plays this stunning layout.

Chez Reavie (DK $8,300, FD $9,200) – Reavie might get chalky at his affordable price, but if he’s not, I’ll have some exposure. He’s got two Top 15s here but missed the cut at the Shriner’s – something I’m hoping the game log watchers buy into.

Also consider: Danny Willett, Joaquin Niemann, Tyrell Hatton, Kevin Na (GPP only)

Value PGA DFS (DK $8K and under):

Pat Perez (DK $7,500, FD $8,900) – While he initially cited his last-minute WD from the Houston Open as due to a wrist injury, he later clarified that he just wanted to get a head start ion arriving in Korea for this personal favorite (where he earned a T5 in 2017 and T7 in 2018). He gained entry on a sponsor exemption and I’m counting on lower ownership than his course fit (and obvious value) would suggest, because some folks got burned by his WD last week.

Jazz Janewattananond (DK $7,000, FD $8,100) – One of the best Asian golfers who also plays events on the Euro tour, Jazz sits atop the Asian Tour’s Order of Merit with two wins, and he’s posted an incredible 17 top-six finishes worldwide in the last 12 months, including victories at the 2019 SMBC Singapore Open and 2019 Kolon Korea Open.

Rory Sabbatini (DK $7,900, FD $8,700) – Sabbatini is among my favorite GPP options on Bentgrass, as his putting improves considerably on that surface. He’s among the best in the field in Par 4 Scoring and Birdies or Better Gained on courses that feature Bentgrass greens and he’s coming off a T10 at the Italian Open.

Joel Dahmen (DK$7,100, FD $8,200) – He finished T9 at the Shriners two weeks ago and performed well in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and par-4 scoring. While Dahmen placed T29 in his debut at Nine Bridges last year and remains a longshot to win, his stats models trend up for this course, and he’s a value option that I’ll have some exposure to in the hopes he can nab a top 10 finish.

Also consider: Ian Poulter, Abraham Ancer & Sung Kang (GPP only)

The Fades:

Jason Day (DK $9,500, FD $10,400) – The former world No. 1 (seems like ages ago, doesn’t it) enters the week ranked 27rd in OWGR, and it’s been a tough descent to watch, as I’m a huge fan. He tied for fifth last year and 11th the year before, so he could garner higher ownership than his form warrants.

Gary Woodland (DK $9,400, $10,200) – 2019 was a big year for Woodland, who was the runner-up to Koepka last season before he snagged his impressive U.S. Open victory. He’s still got some upside, but there’s something missing from his game and he’ll get lots of ownership because of last year’s finish at this venue.

Spades’ Fade of theWeek:

Jordan Spieth (DK $10,000, FD $10,600) – “He’s a self-destructing crybaby who only knows how to putt, and he hasn’t played this year yet.” – Mark “Spades” Spada

Yep. I’m right there with you, Spades. It’s been a while since he finished 37th at the BMW Championship and was eliminated from the FedExCup playoffs, and the only thing that scares me is the no-cut aspect, because a fellow who relies this heavily on his putter has MC-equity I can dig.

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5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS GPP Advice – Stick’s Stacks for Week Six

brgrewe@gmail.com 5 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

Week Five was insanely high scoring – probably the highest I’ve ever seen. Hopefully you checked out the stacks in last week’s post and got your NFL DFS GPP lineups across the pay-line.

It’s another excellent week to use 50% or more of your bankroll towards single entry cash games. Please check out our Cash Game Checkdown before you set your DFS lineups for Sunday. But, lets get to work on Stick’s Stacks for Week Six.

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

If you have any questions and would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

Top NFL DFS GPP Game Stacks

Atlanta Falcons @ Arizona Cardinals (51)

Both of these defenses are historically bad and both of these offenses play at a very high pace. The total in this one opened up at 47 points and was quickly bet up by both the public and “sharper” sports gamblers. Were going to follow suit and attack this game.

Both quarterbacks are projected to be under 10% owned and there really isn’t any heavy chalk associated with this game at the moment. I’ll keep an eye on ownership projections and advise if there is anything notable, but regardless, I don’t think there is any reason to fade either side of the ball in this one.

Atlanta Falcons

I’m not going to get very cute with the Atlanta Falcons like I did last week when touting Mohamed Sanu and Calvin Ridley. This is a game where I think Julio Jones, Freeman, and Hooper do most of the damage. If you want to get contrarian and save some salary, Ridley and Sanu are fine.

Matt Ryan ($6,400)
Julio Jones ($8,000)
Austin Hooper ($5,000)
Devonta Freeman ($5,800)
Mohamed Sanu ($4,500)
Calvin Ridley ($5,700)

Arizona Cardinals

Kyler Murray ($6,500)
Larry Fitzgerald ($6,100)
Christian Kirk ($5,200)
David Johnson ($7,600) – I hate that price, probably a fade for me besides in MME formats. Watch out for his health as well – Edmonds may be a free square is Johnson is out.
KeeSean Johnson ($3,900)

Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs (55)

Not a whole lot to say about this game besides shoot-out city. Personally, I like the ATL/AZ game a bit more due to ownership reasons and I really don’t think the Kansas City pass defense is that bad. Having said that, a total of 55 points is tough to ignore.

We have some injury concerns on the Kansas City offense that we’ll need to keep an eye on, so it outside of Mahomes/Kelce, we would be shooting at the hip when picking another Chiefs’ pass catcher. Not to mention the three-man timeshare at the running back position in KC… All in all, it seems like more of a headache when building a KC stack unless you just keep it simple and lock in Mahomes with Kelce.

One thing I do like is the Houston defense allowing the most receptions to opposing running backs and Damien Williams is very affordable.

Houston Texans

DeAndre Hopkins ($7,400)
Carlos Hyde ($4,400)
DeShaun Watson ($6,700)
Will Fuller ($6,000)
Duke Johnson ($4,100)

Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes ($7,500)
Travis Kelce ($7,000)
Damien Williams ($5,700)
Mecole Hardman ($5,300)
Byron Pringle ($3,500)
Sammy Watkins ($6,200) – Looks like he’s highly questionable to suit up.
Demarcus Robinson ($5,900)

San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams (50.5)

This game has sneaky shootout potential in terms of DFS ownership. I anticipate most players will focus on the two games above (and for good reason), but this game in LA should be a good one. The pace will be there and it’s a contrarian game to attack in DFS.

San Francisco 49ers

Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,700)
George Kittle ($5,200)
Marquise Goodwin ($4,500)
Matt Breida ($5,100)
Tevin Coleman ($4,400)
Dante Pettis ($3,900)

Los Angeles Rams

Cooper Kupp ($7,100)
Robert Woods ($5,700)
Jared Goff ($6,100)
Todd Gurley ($6,200) – Injury concerns – make sure he is active on Sunday!
Gerald Everett ($3,600)
Brandin Cooks ($5,400) – Great value, but may miss this one with a concussion.

Top NFL DFS GPP Team Stacks

Baltimore Ravens

Highest implied total on the slate so you have to give them consideration. I would usually back off on this one due to the run-heavy gamescript Vegas is hinting at, but remember Week One? Lamar Jackson and Hollywood Brown went off! They are always capable of hooking up for a few deep balls despite the blowout concerns in this game.

Lamar Jackson ($6,900)
Marquise Brown ($6,200)
Mark Ingram ($6,600)
Mark Andrews ($4,800)

Dallas Cowboys

They got embarrassed last week and should come out firing early against a terrible Jets team as a whole. I love Elliott and I love Amari Cooper this week. Tyron Smith should return as well this week – that is always great news for the Cowboys’ offense.

Amari Cooper ($7,000)
Ezekiel Elliott ($8,500)
Dak Prescott ($6,200)
Michael Gallup ($5,600)
Jason Witten ($3,900)

Sample NFL DFS GPP Lineup

QB: Patrick Mahomes
RB: Damien Williams
RB: Carlos Hyde
WR: Julio Jones
WR: Larry Fitzgerald
WR: Dante Pettis
TE: Travis Kelce
FLEX: Devonta Freeman
DST: New York Jets

5 years ago 0 comments

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