DFS & Sports Betting Tools, Exclusive Content, and Expert Chat
 
Home / DraftKings GPP / Page 2
Tag:

DraftKings GPP

We get a six-game NBA DFS slate for Friday night and we have some solid spots to attack. Get my full breakdown of my core plays plus my favorite value spots. See which game I am going to be targeting and why. Plus, to top it off, I give my top two bets for tonights NBA action.

NBA DFS – Core Plays

Rudy Gobert $7,700 – 40.35 DK Points – 5.24 Value Rating

Rudy Gobert comes in at a huge discount while the Minnesota Timberwolves are without Karl-Anthony Towns. Now, it is against the Cleveland Cavaliers who manage to defend bigs very well. In three games this season without KAT, Gobert is averaging 17.3 points, 16 rebounds, and three blocks per game. He just recorded 18 points and 14 rebounds last night versus Indiana Pacers. At $7,700 and a value rating of 5.24, I do not want to pass up on Rudy Gobert . He can hit a solid ceiling with no Karl-Anthony Towns tonight.

Make sure you are signed up for our premium plan so you can stay up-to-date in Discord with any last-minute NBA news and any core changes. Get your first week for just $1 using the promo code “DOLLAR” using this link. Find me in Discord under the name “xfreshie” and tag me with any questions.

Lamar Stevens $4,100 – 24.15 DK Points – 5.89 Value Rating

Lamar Stevens has a solid matchup tonight versus the Atlanta Hawks as they continue to struggle versus forwards. The Hawks currently allow forwards to average 25.2 points, 10.7 rebounds, and 4.4 assists per game. On the offensive side for Lamar Stevens, his minutes have gone up lately as he is averaging 17.4 minutes per game. Alongside the minutes, he is averaging 10.2 points and 3.4 rebounds in his last five. With a solid matchup with a fast-paced environment, Lamar Stevens has a good chance to help give us the value we need.

Kyle Kuzma $7,800 – 44.70 DK points – 5.70 Value Rating

Kyle Kuzma gets a great matchup tonight versus Charlotte but also with the fast-paced play of the Washington Wizards, his value is at a top level. Coming in at just $7,800 versus the Hornets who allow 24.5 points, 11 rebounds, and 4.5 assists per game, Kuzma is a great play. The Hornets rank at the bottom when it comes to pace of play as they only average 101.1 possessions per game while the Washington Wizards lead the league with 106.5 possessions. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the only play above $10k tonight and being able to pair Kyle Kuzma with Rudy Gobert is a great duo to start your lineups with.

NBA DFS – Top Value Targets

Richaun Holmes $3,700 – 22.18 DK points – 5.99 Value Rating

Richaun Holmes leads the way when it comes to value rating tonight in the NBA Player Projections sheet. He’s projected for 22.18 points and a value rating of 5.99. Alongside Kyle Kuzma, Holmes should see some run time versus a Charlotte Hornets team that can give up points and boards to centers. The Hornets currently allow 24.8 points and 16.1 rebounds overall to the center position. This makes Holmes a solid value play.

Dean Wade $3,800 – 21.73 DK Points – 5.72 Value Rating

Dean Wade should see the starting nod for the Cleveland Cavaliers once again as the injury bug is hitting the team hard. While Wade did have a huge showing versus Boston on Tuesday with 23 points and eight rebounds, he came down to reality versus Atlanta with nine points and four boards. Now, the Cavaliers get to face the Minnesota Timberwolves as they deal without Karl-Anthony Towns. He’ll go above value if he reaches the 21.73 DK points and exceeds it which makes him a good target for salary-relief if you’re paying up for SGA.

NBA DFS – Game To Target

Charlotte Hornets (+114) versus Washington Wizards (-135) – Total 225.5 Points
Odds and Total Points are taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.

This is one of the lower totals of the slate but there is a lot that we can go after tonight. With the fast-paced Washington Wizards, Kyle Kuzma comes in huge at just $7.8k. Tyus Jones also marks as a good value play, sitting at 5.09 and projects for 31.54 points. While Corey Kisperts doesn’t project as well, he should pay off his price tag. Even Deni Avdija projects for 36.86 DK Points tonight. The Washington Wizards as a two-man or three-man stack could pay off well.

For the Charlotte Hornets, this game is a boost spot due to their slow pace and having to match the Wizards. Miles Bridges holds a 5.20 value rating while sitting at 43.66 DK points in the projections. He does come in higher-priced than Kyle Kuzma, but he is worth a play if entering multiple lineups. Tre Mann continues to pl;ay consistent basketball and sits at 5.38 value rating with a price tag of $5.8k. Another solid two-man stack here with the Charlotte Hornets.

NBA DFS – Best Bets

Kyle Kuzma over 22.5 Points -120 (BetMGM)

We have discussed Kyle Kuzma a lot already in this article and we’ll make this short and sweet. He has averaged 26 points versus Charlotte in three games already this season. Kuzma has only missed the 22.5 total once in his last five games and that was versus the Los Angeles Lakers where he had a slow start. Overall, he should continute his consistent scoring play and log another good outing versus Charlotte.

Buddy Hield over 3.5 Assists -125 (DK Sportsbook)

Buddy Hield has been finding some success in the passing lane as of lately and has another good opportunity tonight versus the New Orleans Pelicans. They currently allow shooting guards to average 5.6 assists per. For Hield, he is averaging 4.2 assists per game in his last five. He has only missed the total once those five games.

0 comment
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail

Back-to-back days that we get an eight-game NBA DFS slate and I’m here to cover all of your needs. While the DFS plays on Tuesday weren’t the best, the bets went one for two. It’s time to bounce back and get back on track. We’ll see who the best plays are and which game to target while breaking down the top two bets to play.

NBA DFS – Core Plays

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander $10,700 – 56.08 DK Points – 5.24 Value Rating

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander comes into tonight’s slate as the third-highest projected player. The Oklahoma City Thunder get to face the Portland Trailblazers in what could be a one-sided matchup. The Thunder play at a fast pace, averaging 104 possessions per game while Portland sits at 102.4. The concern may be that this turns into a blowout game but that hasn’t stopped Gilgeous-Alexander from having success in fewer minutes of play. In three games this season, SGA has averaged 30.7 points, six assists, and 4.7 rebounds while averaging 26.2 minutes versus Portland. He held a 59.6% field-goal percentage versus them while averaging two steals per game.

Make sure you are signed up for our premium plan so you can stay up-to-date in Discord with any last-minute NBA news and any core changes. Get your first week for just $1 using the promo code “DOLLAR” using this link. Find me in Discord under the name “xfreshie” and tag me with any questions.

Luka Samanic $3,500 – 22.21 DK Points – 6.35 Value Rating

Luka Samanic will be a name to watch up until lock as he is currently projected to be in the starting lineup for the Utah Jazz. Samanic does hold the highest value rating on the projections, sitting at 6.35. If he does start, he’ll help open up a lot of salary room. He did log 23 minutes versus Washington on Monday and he recorded five points, two rebounds, and two assists while adding on two blocks and one steal on the defensive end. Give Luka Samanic nearly 25 minutes once again and he’ll be able to give us the value we need.

De’Aaron Fox- $8,600 – 46.94 DK points – 5.46 Value Rating

De’Aaron Fox staying in the core three will strictly ride on the value that opens up throughout the day. If we get more value and salary savings from guys in the Luka Samanic range, Fox and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander combo will be my favorite to run. The Sacramento Kings versus Los Angeles Lakers game is the game with the highest total on the slate and for good reason. De’Aaron Fox will see a matchup that benefits him as the Lakers allow opposing point guards to average 25.8 points, 8.5 assists, and 6.2 rebounds per game. In the two meetings this season already. Fox averaged 32.5 points with 6.5 assists and 4.5 rebounds per game while averaging 2.5 steals. He’ll be able to fill up the stat sheet tonight once again.

NBA DFS – Top Value Targets

Corey Kispert $4,500 – 24.78 DK points – 5.51 Value Rating

Corey Kispert is coming in with two bad performances back-to-back but has been playing well as of late. In his last five games, Kispert has averaged 14.8 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 2.4 assists. He has seen Orlando three times already this season but still was able to put up points versus them. In those three games, he averaged 14.3 points, two rebounds, and two assists while averaging nearly 21 minutes.

Cameron Payne $4,100 – 19.45 DK Points – 4.74 Value Rating

Cameron Payne should be in line for another start today as Tyrese Maxey is dealing with a mild concussion. With his start last night, Payne recorded 15 points, three rebounds, and one assist while getting one steal. Now, the Philadelphia 76ers will face off versus the Memphis Grizzlies. They currently allow guards to average 21.4 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 6.1 assists per game. Overall, the 76ers will provide some value plays alongside their opponents, the Memphis Grizzlies.

NBA DFS – Game To Target

Sacramento Kings (+114) versus Los Angeles Lakers (-135) – Total 238.5 Points
Odds and Total Points are taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.

The game to target is going to be a good one with the Sacramento Kings facing off against the Los Angeles Lakers once again. With the highest point total on the slate, the Kings and Lakers play at a fast-paced. The Kings currently average 103.7 possessions per game while the Lakers average 104.7. A slight boost for Kings players. While Domantas Sabonis is the highest-priced player in this matchup at $10,600, the rest of the Kings players add some good value. Keegan Murray sits at $5.8k and Harrison Barnes sits at $4.1k.

For the Los Angeles Lakers, Anthony Davis is priced over $10k with a $10.3k price tag, and his performances versus Sacramento this season haven’t been the best. Now, LeBron James sits under $10k with a $9.8k price tag and is averaging a triple-double versus Sacramento this season. He is averaging 27.5 points, 12.5 rebounds, and 10 assists through two games. He makes for a great pivot from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. D’Angelo Russell would be the other Lakers starter to consider at $7k but he pushes that line. James makes for the best pay-up spot, alongside De’Aaron Fox when targeting this matchup.

NBA DFS – Best Bets

Jalen Suggs over 9.5 Points -115 (bet365)

Jalen Suggs comes into tonight’s matchup with a projection of 13.61 points and an edge of 43.21% to hit the over. He gets a boost in pace as the Washington Wizards lead the league in possessions per game with 106.6. Suggs should have more opportunities created for him to score. In three meetings this season versus Washington, he has averaged 16 points per game.

Santi Aldama over 6.5 Rebounds +106 (FD Sportsbook)

With the Philadelphia 76erx being depleted due to injuries, Santi Aldama has a very strong case to hit the over. While his projection for rebounds is close to the 6.5 total, he has improved on the boards. He’s averaging 6.2 rebounds in his last five games and had back-to-back games with eight rebounds. He has also logged 32 or more minutes in three of those last five games.

0 comment
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail

We get a massive eight-game NBA DFS slate for Tuesday night and a lot to comb through. I’ll be breaking down my core plays and favorite value plays. See which game to target and what my favorite bets are for the night. Let us dive in and get to the action.

NBA DFS – Core Plays

Caris LeVert $5,500 – 31.56 DK Points – 5.74 Value Rating

The Cleveland Cavaliers are coming into Tuesday’s game banged up. Caris LeVert should benefit greatly from that and holds a 5.74 value rating, tying him for the second-highest value play. LeVert recorded 14 points, 15 assists, and seven rebounds versus Chicago on Wednesday. This season, without Donovan Mitchell, Caris Levert holds a usage rate of 27.9% while averaging 15.8 points, 4.5 assists, and 2.5 rebounds in games without him.

Make sure you are signed up for our premium plan so you can stay up-to-date in Discord with any last-minute NBA news and any core changes. Get your first week for just $1 using the promo code “DOLLAR” using this link. Find me in Discord under the name “xfreshie” and tag me with any questions.

Tobias Harris $7,200 – 35.50 DK Points – 4.93 Value Rating

The Philadelphia 76ers will be without Tyrese Maxey tonight, boosting up Tobias Harris. While the Brooklyn Nets do challenge power forwards, Harris will have more opportunities tonight to exceed his $7,200 price tag. Harris has averaged 34 minutes in his past five games while recording 19 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 1.8 assists per game. He has had two good scoring performances in his last two games, recording 31 points with 12 rebounds versus Charlotte and then 28 points and five rebounds versus Dallas.

Victor Wembanyama $10,700 – 54.63 DK points – 5.11 Value Rating

Victor Wembanyama gets a huge price jump tonight but for very good reason. He faces a Houston Rocket team that he has already put up monstrous double-doubles again. While he is a walking double-double, he and Luka Doncic make the case to always pay up for them. San Antonio does play at the fourth-highest pace with 105 possessions per game and should force Houston to play quicker. With that, mixed with Wembanyama’s two-game sample versus Houston, the $10,700 price tag is still reasonable to play.

NBA DFS – Top Value Targets

Paul Reed $5,100 – 29.99 DK points – 5.88 Value Rating

Mo Bamba has been getting the starting nod at center for the Philadelphia 76ers but Paul Reed has been making the most of his opportunity. Reed has recorded 29 DK points in back-to-back games now and still gets a price drop. He projects as the top value play with a rating of 5.88 and a projection of 29.99 DK points tonight. Also, he has flirted with the double-double bonus in those two games. While Brooklyn is good at stopping centers from scoring, they are still allowing 14.6 rebounds per game.

Sam Merrill $4,100 – 22.20 DK Points – 5.41 Value Rating

Sam Merrill is coming in at a great price point of $4,100 while the Cleveland Cavaliers are battling some injury news. Donovan Mitchell does remain out for three more games but even Darius Garland and Isaac Okoro have been hit with the questionable tag. Merrill could have a huge opportunity tonight. He has recorded 12 and 21 points in his past two games while playing 25 minutes or more in both. Give him a short-handed team and we may see the value exceed expectations.

NBA DFS – Game To Target

Indiana Pacers (+160) versus Dallas Maverick (-192) – Total 246 Points
Odds and Total Points are taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.

This is going to be a fast-paced game between two very good teams. We have one huge questionable tag and that is Luka Doncic. He hurt his ankle in Dallas’s previous game and if he is out, Kyrie Irving gets a major boost. We won’t get that news until closer to lock. While Dallas won’t have the greatest value in it, Josh Green stands out at $4,200. While his games haven’t been outstanding, he has been playing consistent basketball and would get a huge boost. However, Doncic will most likely play and bet the top option once again.

On the opposite side, the Indiana Pacers play fast basketball and play it well. Now, Tyrese Haliburton has not been playing to where he should be but is only $9,000 tonight. Pascal Siakam is at $7,700 and has played consistent basketball and we know what exactly we’ll get with him. He has also found success versus Dallas, averaging 21.5 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 3.5 assists in two games. T.J. McConnell is at $5,000 today due to the high total overall but is also coming off of a strong showing where he recorded 41.5 fantasy points. We get better value on the Indiana side and the game calls for high scoring.

NBA DFS – Best Bets

Ausar Thompson over 6.5 Rebounds +115 (bet365)

Ausar Thompson has a solid chance tonight to rack up some rebounds and with a total of 6.5 as his line, our tool has him projected at basically nine rebounds and a 49.83% edge. He has recorded six, seven, and eight rebounds in his past three games. For Miami, they are allowing 7.4 rebounds to opposing forwards per game.

Herbert Jones over 12.5 Points + Assists -120 (Bet365)

Herbert Jones has been scoring better as of late and has hit the 12.5 total just off points alone in four of his last five games. While he didn’t have the best outing in the first meeting versus Toronto, they do tend to allow forwards to score. They currently allow them to average 24.8 points and 4.3 assists per game. In the player prop tool, Jones projects for 16.37 points and assists, sitting at a 31% edge.

0 comment
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail

A fresh new week for us to kick off and we have a six-game NBA DFS slate on DraftKings. I’ll be breaking down my core plays for the slate alongside some value plays that shoot help boost your lineup. On top of that, I’ll give my game to target overall plus two of my favorite bets for the day.

NBA DFS – Core Plays

Shai Gilgeous-Alexandar $10,700 – 55.3 DK Points – 5.17 Value Rating

Shai Gilgeous-Alexandar has been on a massive tear and has recorded 30 or more points in eight straight games. Now, he faces the Los Angeles Lakers who are allowing opposing guards to average 23.8 points per game. They also allow 7.1 rebounds and six assists per game. This will also be a fast-paced game as both teams average 104 possessions per game. Gilgeous-Alexander has already found success versus the Lakers this year as he has faced them three times. In those three games, he has averaged 30.3 points, 6.7 assists, and four rebounds.

Make sure you are signed up for our premium plan so you can stay up-to-date in Discord with any last-minute NBA news and any core changes. Get your first week for just $1 using the promo code “DOLLAR” using this link. Find me in Discord under the name “xfreshie” and tag me with any questions.

Kyle Kuzma $7,400 – 43.32 DK Points – 5.85 Value Rating

Kyle Kuzma has a huge value rating tonight while sitting at just $7,400. Kuzma is holding a usage rating of 31% this season while averaging 22.2 points, 6.6 rebounds, and four assists per game. He has been flirting with multiple double-doubles in his last five games as he has recorded two already. He should be able to record another one tonight as he gets to face the Utah Jazz. They currently allow opposing power forwards to average 27.2 points, 9.8 rebounds, and 4.8 assists per game.

Andre Drummond $5,200 – 32.72 DK points – 6.29 Value Rating

The Sacramento Kings may not be the worst out of all of the teams when it comes to guarding centers. However, Andre Drummond has been dominating as of late and that’s why he’s the top-value player on the slate. In his last three games, Drummond has recorded a total of 47 rebounds. He recorded 20 points with 11 rebounds versus Detroit which he followed that game up with 17 points and 26 rebounds versus Cleveland. To round it out, he recorded 9 points and 10 rebounds versus Milwaukee. The Kings will have to find a way to slow him down on the boards but that double-double bonus upside at $5,200 is one to not pass up on.

NBA DFS – Top Value Targets

Jabari Walker $4,700 – 26.39 DK points – 5.61 Value Rating

Jabari Walker pops up as a good pay-down big man tonight. His last two games have been impressive. He recorded 19 points and 10 rebounds Friday night versus Memphis and then recorded 18 points and 12 rebounds versus them again on Saturday. Minnesota has proven to be a challenge at times but not for Walker. In three games this season, he has averaged 9.7 points, eight rebounds, and 1.3 assists.

Spencer Dinwiddie $4,000 – 20.59 DK Points – 5.35 Value Rating

There aren’t too many low-cost plays as of now for tonight’s slate but that could change. Spencer Dinwiddie has a straight-forward matchup history versus Oklahoma City this season which makes me feel okay playing him at $4,000. I typically avoid him. In two games this season, Dinwiddie has averaged 18 points, 4.5 assists, and three rebounds per game versus Oklahoma City while averaging nearly 35 minutes. He may not top 30 minutes tonight, but he has found success versus the Thunder which makes me willing to play him.

NBA DFS – Game To Target

Oklahoma City Thunder (-112) versus Los Angeles Lakers (-108) – Total 238.5 Points
Odds and Total Points are taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.

We’re going to split the game to target into two games. The pay-up spots in tonight’s matchup that features the Thunder and Lakers are ones to not pass up. The core piece is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander but we still have Anthony Davis ($10.1k) and LeBron James ($9.7k) which are also great plays. There is the obvious questionable tags for both, Davis and LeBron, which also would boost either one. If LeBron James does sit, Davis shoots up as a good spot if you pivot from SGA or vice versus for James. Chet Holmgren may be one player to avoid overall but Josh Giddey ($5.3k) is a great pairing partner.

The second game to look at for some value is going to be the Washington Wizards versus the Utah Jazz. This game holds the highest total of the night with 241 points. Kyle Kuzma is a great play but Utah news has already started to roll in. That could provide some good low-cost plays to be rolled into the lineup. John Collins ($6.5k) has a great matchup and holds a 6.13 value rating with a projection of 39.87 DK Points. Overall, the cheaper plays could be found in this matchup.

NBA DFS – Best Bets

Alex Caruso over 10.5 Points + Assists -115 (bet365)

Alex Caruso comes in as the third-highest edge play in the NBA Player Prop Model, sitting at 42%. He has hit the over in four of his last five games. While it has been just one game this season meeting the Sacramento Kings, Caruso did record seven points and six assists.

Deni Avdija over 3.5 Assists -105 (DK Sportsbook)

Deni Avdija comes in averaging 3.4 assists per game while notching back-to-back games with five assists. Avdija gets a Utah Jazz team that is allowing forwards to average 4.8 assists per game this season. With that being said, he did record five assists in their first meeting this season and should be able to replicate it as this is the highest-total game on tonight’s plate.

Get access to our NBA DFS Player Prop Model here and find the best edge in the industry! An example from yesterday is below. Click the image for today’s updated model

0 comment
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail

Back-to-back slates where we smashed the best bets posted in the NBA DFS article. We get another six-game slate on DraftKings and I’ll break down my core plays and favorite game to attack. On top of that, two more bets will be posted. Let us continue the streak and keep the green rolling in.

NBA DFS – Core Plays

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander $10,700 – 55.96 DK Points – 5.23 Value Rating

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has an amazing matchup tonight versus the San Antonio Spurs as they struggle against point guards. Coming in as the second-highest projected player on the slate, Gilgeous-Alexander should have a fairly easy run to exceed expectations. He’s currently averaging 31.8 points, 6.6 assists, and 5.6 rebounds per game in his last five games. He has recorded 30 or more points in those last five games also.

With the defense of the San Antonio Spurs against point guards, they are allowing them to average 26.4 points, 8.9 assists, and 6.7 rebounds per game. Allowing point guards to flirt with the double-double bonus. Also for Oklahoma City, this is a slight pace-up spot as the Spurs average 105.1 possessions per game compared to Thunder’s 104 possessions per game.

Make sure you are signed up for our premium plan so you can stay up-to-date in Discord with any last-minute NBA news and any core changes. Get your first week for just $1 using the promo code “DOLLAR” using this link. Find me in Discord under the name “xfreshie” and tag me with any questions.

Bol Bol $3,900 – 24.18 DK Points – 6.20 Value Rating

Bol Bol comes in as a strong value play and his two most recent games will show why. Versus Houston last Friday, Bol recorded 25 points with 14 rebounds and then recorded 11 points and four rebounds versus the Los Angeles Lakers on Sunday. Now with a four-day break, Bol Bol will be refreshed and ready to keep up the consistent play that he has found.

The big hang-up right now is with Jusuf Nurkic, who has the probable tag as of this morning. If things change for the worse and he moves to questionable, Bol Bol will see a huge boost in projection, value, and ownership. However, it would be ownership that I’d want to eat in the lineup.

Chet Holmgren $7,900 – 40.94 DK points – 5.18 Value Rating

While Victor Wembanyama is the higher projected player between the two young stars in this matchup, Chet Holmgren sits at a nice price tag. Sitting at $7,900, Holmgren gets a San Antonio Spurs defense that struggles also against some bigs. They currently allow them to average 26.5 points, 16 rebounds, and 3.7 assists per game. We should get Chet to pay off his price tag but also exceed it.

There will be a double-double bonus upside also as he has averaged 20.4 points and 10 rebounds in his past five games while averaging 30.9 minutes. Overall for the season, his average has been 17.1 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 2.7 assists with a usage rate of 21.5%. He does come second when it comes to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander but the duo can make a dominating impact tonight versus the San Antonio Spurs, plus with Holmgren’s price tag, it leaves room for more alongside Bol Bol.

NBA DFS – Game To Target

Oklahoma City Thunder (-625) versus San Antonio Spurs (+455) – Total 238.5 Points
Odds and Total Points are taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.

Following my core plays, you’ll notice two of the three plays are from this game. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren make for strong plays. Overall, there are many spots in this game that we can look at. The other pay-up spot is Victor Wembanyama who is at the price tag of $10.100 on DraftKings. Both he and Gilgeous-Alexander are two of the top three projected players on this slate.

While it is the second-highest total out of the six games on the slate, the pace of play makes for a great spot to attack. Oklahoma City plays at a pace of 104 possessions per game while the San Antonio Spurs average 105.1 possessions per game. With that, we have a few salary-saver spots to look at from this game also. Lu Dort comes in at $4,400 while Tre Jones and Jeremy sit at $5,000 and $5,1000. The game could get out of hand but if so, I believe SGA and Holmgren still can pay off their price tag, especially Chet sitting at $7,900.

NBA DFS – Best Bets

Draymond Green over 0.5 3-PT Made -125 (FD Sportsbook)

We’re going to continue riding the hot 3-point hand of Draymond Green. If you checked out the article on Tuesday (February 27th), we played the same prop bet for Green. He has now made at least one three-point shot in six straight games while taking at least two attempts in four of his last five. The New York Knicks do allow bigs to average 2.6 made 3-point shots per game also. overall, our NBA DFS Player Prop Model has this bet at a 162.58% edge and we’re not passing that up.

Alperen Sengun over 0.5 Blocked Shots -115 (bet365)

Moving on to the fifth-highest edge-rated bet is going to be Alperen Sengun over 0.5 blocked shots which sits at a 55.30% edge. Sengun has at least one blocked shot in four of his last five games. He’s averaging one blocked shot in his last five games and 0.8 on the season. The Phoenix Suns do allow 1.8 blocked shots per game for opposing centers so Alperen Sengun should have his opportunities to hit his prop.

Get access to our NBA DFS Player Prop Model here and find the best edge in the industry! An example from yesterday is below. Click the image for today’s updated model

NBA DFS
0 comment
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail

We went 2/2 last night as Draymond Green cashed his 0.5 3-PT Made total and Max Struss blew his 8.5 points total out of the water. It’s time to get it rolling with another NBA DFS slate and we have six games tonight on DraftKings. Below, you’ll find my core plays plus two of my favorite bets.

NBA DFS – Top Targets

Domantas Sabonis $10,300 – 52.48 DK Points – 5.09 Value

We get a monstrous matchup once again with Domantas Sabonis facing off against Nikola Jokic for the fourth time this season. Sabonis has averaged 18 points, 15 rebounds, and eight assists in three games facing Denver. His dominating play has continued in his last five games where he is averaging 21.6 points, 14.2 rebounds, and 10.4 assists. He should be in line for a double-double at a minimum while flirting with a triple-double bonus.

This is going to be a good game to target as two of the three games have hit 240 and 241 total points. On top of that, the Sacramento Kings play at a faster pace, averaging 103.9 possessions per game while Denver averages just 100 possessions. Domantas Sabonis is the fourth-highest projected player on the slate and while Nikola Jokic does project for more, the ownership will be lower for Sabonis with just as much upside.

Make sure you are signed up for our premium plan so you can stay up-to-date in Discord with any last-minute NBA news and any core changes. Get your first week for just $1 using the promo code “DOLLAR” using this link. Find me in Discord under the name “xfreshie” and tag me with any questions.

Norman Powell $4,800 – 30.12 DK Points – 6.27 value

Norman Powell and the Los Angeles Clippers are in a huge pace-up spot tonight versus the Los Angeles Lakers. While they play at a slower pace with 101.4 possessions per game, the Lakers are averaging 104.9. Powell also comes in as the second-highest projected value play with a rating of 6.27. He has found success versus this Lakers team this season already.

In three games versus the Lakers, Powell has averaged 14.3 points, 2.3 rebounds, and 1.7 assists while averaging 28.9 minutes per game. With that, the Lakers have also struggled versus guards, allowing them to average 24.2 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 6 assists per game. Norman Powell will be a key piece to get to better payup spots like Domantas Sabonis or Nikola Jokic tonight.

Kyrie Irving $9,300 – 48.47 DK Points – 5.21 Value Rating

The last team we played a point guard versus Toronto, Tyrese Haliburton disappointed us. I don’t see that happening tonight with Kyrie Irving. With Dallas and Toronto having the second-highest point total, you’ll want a piece of the action. Irving has been playing well as of late. In his last five games, he has averaged 29.6 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 3.8 assists. On the season, he has played consistently, averaging 25.8 points, 5.3 assists, and 5.2 rebounds with a usage rate of 29%.

The obvious piece in this matchup though is Luka Doncic who is hard to pass up. While there would need to be some strong value plays to open by lock time, pairing Kyrie Irving with Doncic wouldn’t be a bad route. It would just be a nearly impossible route and a true punt with scrubs and stars lineup. Doncic and Nikola Jokic are priced high and for good reason which makes Domantas Sabonis the best next pay-up spot to pair with Kyrie Irving.

NBA DFS – Top Bets

Get access to our NBA DFS Player Prop Model here and find the best edge in the industry! Example from yesterday below. Click the image for today’s updated model…………..

Santi Aldama over 12.5 Points + Rebounds -120 (Bet365)

Santi Aldama has found success this season versus Minnesota and is averaging 12 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 2.7 assists in three games. Aldama is projected to do damage once again as he’s projected for 17.34 points and rebounds tonight. Both teams do play at a slower pace and if Minnesota is short-handed once again, Santi Aldama may have an easier route to his total.

Evan Mobley over 0.5 steals -130 (Bet365)

Evan Mobley is a low-total stealing machine. On the season he is averaging almost 1 steal per game and in his last five, he has recorded at least one steal in four of them. Getting to face Chicago once again, they allow opposing centers to average 1.1 steals per game. Plus, Mobley secured one steal and block in their first meeting.

0 comment
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail

NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game

This is it folks, the final Showdown slate of the NFL season and although we have two of the season’s laughing stocks going head to head if Washington wins they win the division. What that means for us is that we don’t have to worry about the teams packing it in during the second half. There are however, a ton of injuries to key guys which will more than likely make this an ugly one. But enough talk let’s dig into Stoweby’s Showdown for 1.3 Washington at Philadelphia.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

I’m putting this in every article until folks listen: Do not play Showdown if you’re still building bankroll or you’re tilting from a bad main slate! This is nothing more than a way to have a little fun during the game and it shouldn’t be counted on for anything more than that. They are incredibly difficult to win.

NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown for 1.3 Washington at Philadelphia:

Chalk: Jalen Hurts $17,100

Pivot: Antonio Gibson $13,500

Contrarian #1: Logan Thomas $11,700

Contrarian #2: Jordan Howard/Boston Scott, $1,500/$2,100

Contrarian #3 Terry McLaurin $15,000

****Bonus Play**** Zack Ertz $6,900: He has not had a good year by any stretch but he is the ONLY tight end available for the Eagles. My only pause putting him up top is that it isn’t Wentz behind center but if he’s the guy, I’m gonna take a chance.

Stoweby’s Showdown for 1.3 Washington at Philadelphia:

Vegas: 43 Point Total/Washington: -6.5

Weather: Upper 30’s with rain and wind around 10MPH

It has been a rainy, sloppy mess in the city of brotherly love and Vegas isn’t expecting much in term of scoring with a 43 point total. The number that is a little strange to me is that Washington is projected as a 6.5 point favorite. If you have ever heard me and Michael Rasile talk during our Thursday Night Showdown stream you’ve likely heard us talk about how bigger spreads don’t really make a ton of sense in low total games. Don’t get me wrong I do think this will be very low scoring with guys like Miles Sanders, Dallas Goedert, and Desean Jackson out for the Eagles and Alex Smith, Terry McLaurin, and to a lesser extent Antonio Gibson being limited due to injuries. My overarching approach in this game is going to be to limit my exposure in any one lineup to your “big play” pass catchers (not that we have a ton) due to the injuries, especially on the Washington side. Instead, I’m going to focus on the possession style, move the chain plays and defenses for my core.

The clear favorite that I think we will see everyone gravitate towards is Jalen Hurts, he provides a floor/ceiling with his ability to run that nobody else can give you in this contest. Of 10 lineups he will likely occupy four of my captain spots. The only other guys that interest me in any way for captains on the Eagles side are Boston Scott and Jordan Howard. I’m not sure which of these guys will get the bulk of the work so it would be a good idea to make a lineup and just but each in that spot so that you don’t miss out. The value provided by both will allow you to go anywhere you want for the rest of your lineup.

The Washington side of the ball is equally as frustrating and in many ways worse due to the uncertainty. Terry McLaurin is my final contrarian play but I really struggled back and forth with whether or not I would put him in there. He is only two weeks removed from a high ankle sprain that takes 4-6 weeks to heal. The field conditions being what they are means that on slip and he is gone. Additionally, if Washington gets ahead early I don’t see them putting him on the field. He is only playing because of the must win situation. I’ll have him in one lineup at captain, that’s it. The remainder of my lines for captain will likely revolve around Logan Thomas and Antonio Gibson. Logan has had 12 and 16 targets respectively in each of the last two weeks and with Alex Smith’s calf injury, Terry’s limitations, and the current weather conditions being what they are I see that continuing tonight. Antonio Gibson to this point is my favorite Washington player. He does carry a Q tag but this doesn’t seem like the same situation as Alex Smith and Terry McLaurin. Gibson has always sounded like this would be play where Alex and Terry are only in due to the scenario.

I do have one more low owned captain thought even though it isn’t listed above. I think this would be a good week to run a lineup or two with one or both defenses at captain. Both teams are dealing with significant injury issues in key offensive spots, the field will likely be a mess, and divisional contests tend to be lower scoring. My favorite of the two is actually Washington’s defense. They have been impressive all season and as dynamic as Hurts is in the early going he has had issues with ball security. He’s only lost one but he has actually fumbled the ball five times in the last two weeks and he threw two picks against Dallas last week. Players who fumble that much don’t tend to stay lucky over the long run.

Stoweby’s Showdown for 1.3 Washington at Philadelphia Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

As I noted above both defenses are viable and given the low score being projected both kickers are firmly in play for a cheap way to get points. Temper your expectations when it comes to your flex plays. Points will likely be difficult to come by.

Washington: Defense, JD McKissic, Cam Sims, Dustin Hopkins, Dontrell Inman, Peyton Barber

Philadelphia: Defense, Zach Ertz, Jalen Reagor, Greg Ward, Travis Fulgham, Jake Elliott

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Stoweby’s Showdown for 1.3 Washington at Philadelphia. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

0 comment
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail

NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game

We are almost at the end of the line folks. Only 8 days days until we find out who our playoff teams are and it’s time for us at Win Daily to finish strong. The fantasy gods have blessed us with some terrific showdown slates and this one is no different. King Henry versus A-Aron, could you ask for anything more in a showdown slate? Let’s not waste any more time. I want to get us in a position to win big this week.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

I’m putting this in every article until folks listen: Do not play Showdown if you’re still building bankroll or you’re tilting from a bad main slate! This is nothing more than a way to have a little fun during the game and it shouldn’t be counted on for anything more than that. They are incredibly difficult to win.

NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.27 Titans at Packers:

Chalk: Derrick Henry $18,600

Pivot: Aaron Rodgers $17,400

Contrarian #1: Davante Adams $16,500

Contrarian #2: Aaron Jones $14,100

Contrarian #3 Corey Davis $11,700

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.27 Titans at Packers:

Vegas: 54.5 Point Total/Packers: -3

Weather: Upper 20’s with snow and wind around 15MPH

I’m going to start this off by saying that we have seven guys who can legitimately be in the captain spot and I wouldn’t think twice about it. So I will be leaving guys out. I don’t really think we’re going to have a “chalk” play. I think we’ll see the first four on my list above at roughly the same 15-20% range with the rest being significantly lower. This will be a case where if you’re throwing a single bullet out there you would be better off saving it for another contest. You need at least 10 lineup variations at minimum to even get you enough combinations to compete. I’m personally looking at making at least 20 lineups.

Vegas is projecting this to be an extremely high scoring and close contest and I’m expecting Derrick Henry to have his highest touch count on the season in this one given how stout the secondary for the Packers are. The question of the day will be who gets Jaire Alexander and who gets Kevin King. My lean is that Jaire will shadow Brown, leaving Corey Davis as my primary target. But, Green Bay runs almost 70% zone defense and both Brown and Davis can be considered one’s at this point. Alexander did largely shadow Calvin Ridley way back in week four and didn’t record a catch so if you’re looking for a comp there you go. My take on this will be to limit lineups with both receivers. I think one or the other will be shut down when it is all said and done.

I don’t think Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, or Davante Adams need much explanation. The Titans are an absolute disaster defensively through the air and on the ground. We also don’t have to worry about the insanity that is Matt LaFleur’s ridiculous split backfield with Jamaal Williams out. Adams is still getting his 10 plus targets a game. A small but crucial note in showdowns where every fraction of a point matters is that Aaron Rodgers is now running the ball between 4-6 over the last 3 games compared to the 1-2 per earlier in the year.

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.27 Titans at Packers Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

With the snow and wind we are expecting at Lambeau Field I am going to be very underweight with both kickers. I would rather take a shot on a $200 salary dart to fit another top guy in than pay 4k to get 4-6 points and have to downgrade elsewhere. I know Aaron Jones will be the guy but I don’t think he’ll get 100% of the snaps so AJ Dillon is worth a hard look as a flex at $1,400.

Titans: Ryan Tannehill, AJ Brown, Jonnu Smith, Darrynton Evans, Cameron Batson

Packers: Robert Tonyan, AJ Dillon, Marquez Valdes Scantling, Allen Lazard, Equanamious St. Brown, Marcedes Lewis

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.27 Titans at Packers. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

0 comment
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail

NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

I’m putting this in every article until folks listen: Do not play Showdown if you’re still building bankroll or you’re tilting from a bad main slate! This is nothing more than a way to have a little fun during the game and it shouldn’t be counted on for anything more than that. They are incredibly difficult to win.

NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.20 Browns at Giants:

Chalk: Nick Chubb $16,800

Pivot: Jarvis Landry $14,700

Contrarian #1: Kareem Hunt $10,500

Contrarian #2: Daruis Slayton $9,300

Contrarian #3 Wayne Gallman $13,200

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.20 Browns at Giants:

Vegas: 44.5 Point Total/Browns: -6.5

Weather: Mid/Upper 30’s, light wind

With Colt McCoy expected to take the helm once again Vegas is projecting this to be a messy, low scoring struggle with the Browns getting ahead early. Once thing that is strange with this one is the – 6.5 for the Browns. I know the Giants defense is underrated but there isn’t a defense in the league that can hold up to two pro bowl caliber running backs for 4 quarters when they don’t have an offense that can give them at least a little bit of a breather. That number feels like it should be at least -7.5 and at some point the Giants front seven will get worn out leaving Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt plenty of room to run free so it should be no surprise this I think Chubb will be big chalk and Hunt his my first contrarian captain play. This thought process also dictates my pivot of Jarvis Landry. He’s been playing great football since OBJ went down. He catches everything under the sun and he’s even good to throw a touchdown every so often. The front seven is legit but New Yorks clear defensive weakness is the secondary. There just isn’t anyone back there who can stop Landry. I know we gave the Browns a hard time when it comes to the passing game but in several of those duds they were dealing with some of the worst wind I can recall seeing so I’m praying that a little of that still lingers in the back of peoples minds. While I don’t think the Giants will get much done offensively I do like Darius Slayton against the soft Cleveland secondary. Denzel Ward is a bit of a concern but the Browns play about 70 percent zone defense so the deep post, bunch formations, and double moves a perfect for Slayton to break one or two open downfield. You guys should know by now that I love Slayton against a Cover-2 Zone concept. With Evan Engram dealing with a calf issue Slayton is the clear preferred target for Colt. Wayne Gallman is the only other Giant I would consider at Captain due to McCoy’s tendency to check down and Gallman has proven himself to be a versatile back who can be used in any game script. Did I mention he has had double digit DK point outings in seven straight?

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.20 Browns at Giants Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

If you are playing onslaught scripts both defenses are in play. The Giants can get to the QB causing Baker issues potentially an I just talked at length about how bad the Giants offense is. Low wind so both kickers are in play also. I’m going to list him below but be cautious with Evan Engram. He typically does poorly with soft tissue injuries and I don’t see him finishing this game. Austin Hooper is also I’m concerned with while he’s dealing with a neck issue. Keep an eye on Marvin Hall’s status everyone. If he plays for the Browns tonight that is your potential min price slate breaker!

Giants: Defense, Sterling Shepperd, Golden Tate, Evan Engram (Q, calf), Alfred Morris (eww), Dion Lewis (eww), Graham Gano

Browns: Defense, Rashard Higgins, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Austin Hooper (Q, neck), Cody Parkey, Harrison Bryant, Marvin Hall (verify active)

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.20 Browns at Giants. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

0 comment
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail

Subscribe to our newsletter

The best bets and resources to make you more profitable

"*" indicates required fields

    Our Company

    At WIN DAILY®, our motto is to “change your game and change your life.” We want to help you win that bet, parlay, and big DFS tournament and have some fun while you do. Our goal is to help you turn your love of sports into a profit center while playing responsibly and enjoying your time with a like-minded community.

    ©2024 WIN DAILY®. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

    This site is 100% for entertainment purposes only and does not involve real money betting. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800 GAMBLER. This service is intended for adult users only.
    -
    00:00
    00:00
    Update Required Flash plugin
    -
    00:00
    00:00