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Magical Kenya Open Preview: DeepDiveGolf’s Tournament Analysis, Weather, And Advice

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 5 months ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

After a swing of tournaments in the Middle East, the DP World Tour ventures to their second preview of Africa for the Magical Kenya Open. This tournament is always a lot of fun and has produced some thrilling finishes. Much of that comes down to the golf course, as we preview the Magical Kenya Open host Muthaiga Golf Club.

Muthaiga Golf Club host our Magical Kenya Open Preview

The difference between Muthaiga and the PGA Tour Mexico Open venue this week, Vidanta Vallarta, are that they are as polar opposite to each other as they are geographically. This got me thinking about many of the DP World Tour players who have made their way to Mexico this week. Someone like Bjork could be much more suited to the course in Kenya than the one he will face this week.

Perhaps we will see a trend develop in time, with those who hold duel access selecting where they play more on the venue than which Tour is on first glance seemingly paying the most money. It is certainly interesting times we are living in for those of us in the golf industry.

Dial-in on H2H Match-ups this week

The specific nature of the course this week can produce wonderful opportunities for mismatches in rounds 3 and 4 matchups, where you can get two golfers with quite different player profiles who have achieved their score via different means. Keep an eye on the WinDaily Premium Discord for opportunities as we spot them!

Did you miss the below? Again?!#GenesisInvitational
R4 Match-ups
❌Harman over Aberg +138
✅Burns over Power -164
✅C Bez over Todd -125
✅Henley over Kitayama +105
✅English over Day +100
❌All 5 +2662
✅4-folds
✅Boxed Trebles
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20u in, 42.055u out

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— David Bieleski (@deepdivegolf) February 19, 2024

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Magical Kenya Open Preview Muthaiga Course Analysis

Onto a preview of the golf course then, where the Magical Kenya Open returns once again to Muthaiga Golf Club.

It is very important to note to use course history this week. Despite hosting events in Kenya since 1967, the event has alternated between Muthaiga and Karen Country Club. 2022 and 2023 were both held at the current venue, as were 2017 and 2018 on the Challenge Tour. 2019 and 2021 were played at Karen CC, as were Challenge Tour events from 2013-2016. You get the idea. Although I wouldn’t totally discount form at Karen, this is quite a different test.

I’ll note the Seve factor as well. How often do you see a winning Spanish golfer commenting how “Seve Ballesteros won at this course” and that provided inspiration for them? The effect is real and provides such huge emotional motivation for Spanish players. Seve won this event back in 1978 at Muthaiga and we have seen other Spaniards play well here since. This includes last year’s winner, Jorge Campillo.

Although on paper the golf course looks long enough at 7,228 yards for a par 71, bear in mind that Nairobi is at an altitude of 6,000 feet. That sees the golf ball travel quite significantly further in the air. In fact, the distance increase is up to 20% in the modern age of golf ball technology.

40 years since @KenBrownGolf won in Kenya, he compares his 1984 yardage book to the one the players will use this week 🤯#MKO2024 pic.twitter.com/5EvvG9QG7a
— DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) February 19, 2024

Driving Accuracy the Key to Success

Where Muthaiga gets it’s defense is in the extremely narrow nature of the course. There is barely in runout from the fairway before you are in the towering trees.

Past champion Jeremy Robinson said: “Muthaiga is a narrow course – I think they’ve changed a few of the holes but I remember that being the overriding factor, it being narrow. You had to drive the ball straight because the rough was pretty thick and it wasn’t a long course, even in those days. Hit the ball straight, get used to the grain on the greens, the different grasses, and it’s more of a thinker’s course, unlike a lot of the courses today that favour longer hitters.”

Robinson went on to note how the unique grass types and nature of the course would prove difficult on debut; a sentiment I largely agree with.

It is no wonder then that we have seen some of the straightest hitters on tour find success here. Other links can be found in those who have played well at altitude previously. Perhaps the ability to best adjust to yardages plays a factor there. Greens are very small and scoring should not get out of control.

Muthaiga Golf Club Course Comps

Strangely enough, one of the better course comps for our Magical Kenya Open preview comes from the Swiss Alps. Crans-sur-Sierre is of course also played at altitude, but is a narrow course emphasising driving accuracy and small greens. Soderberg has found success on both courses, with Thriston Lawrence winning at Crans and runner-up at Muthaiga both on debut.

Valderrama is a very narrow, tree-lined test that has favoured the accurate drivers with sharp approach play. Players such as Kinhult link the two, finishing 8th at Muthaiga and 6th at Valderrama later that year. Catlin finished 15th on debut appearance at Muthaiga, a fine performance for a first start, and holds a record at Valderrama of W-11-11.

Le Golf National asks similar questions, but in a different way. The penalty at the Open de France host for a wayward driver is often a watery end. Again, greens are small with penalty severe for a miss. Kinhult also has a 5th there. He may well have made the Magical Kenya Open preview betting card had he shown any glimpse of form in the last 6 months. Julien Brun has gone 13-7 at Muthaiga and 13-6 at Le Golf National. It should provide a fascinating host course for the 2024 Paris Olympics, but is a handy guide for our Magical Kenya Open preview.

Weather

High winds are forecast for Nairobi to begin the week. Wind gusts above 30mph are no joke, even with some protection from the tall trees on this property.

Some rain is set to develop on Friday afternoon. As long as this does not become too severe this could prove beneficial in softening the greens, which can play pretty fast at times. If the rain becomes heavy in conjunction with the wind, it could become very difficult.

As the winds are quite consistent all day, I don’t think a substantial weather edge will develop for week long. You may see a small edge for those playing Thursday AM/Friday PM if light rain softens and slows greens. The caveat for that will come from the level of rain experienced Friday afternoon. For DFS purposes, I think a case could be made for building a number of line-ups in each direction to provide protection and leverage on the field.

Magical Kenya Open Preview Golf Betting Tips

If you would like to read my golf betting tips for the Magical Kenya Open, you can preview these in this article here in the WinDaily Premium Discord here.

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Thank you for reading my Magical Kenya Open preview and tournament analysis. I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many, many wins with you in 2024!

5 months ago 0 comment

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Magical Kenya Open Betting Tips: DeepDiveGolf’s Best Bets And Player Profiles

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 5 months ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Before getting into our betting tips for the Magical Kenya Open, I do recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch-up on all my deep-dive course analysis of Muthaiga Golf Club, course comps, and weather for the tournament. Hopefully, this helps provide a glimpse into part of my process behind the Magical Kenya Open golf betting tips below.

You can find my latest profit and loss tracker here.

Honourable Mentions

As always, those who made the short-list before being unceremoniously ripped out because of some perceived short-coming. As mentioned in my Magical Kenya Open preview article, Kinhult may have made the betting card given his seamless course correlations. However, he has been truly dreadful over the past 6 months. Even the smallest glimmer of what looked like a golf swing could well have seen him included.

Kazuki Higa (80/1) is one who is an accurate driver and could do well here. He was last sighted finishing 11th in Mauritius and boasts a 6th in the Open de France along with a 36th at Crans in just one start at both events. Having not played since December does raise some questions as to where he has been and the state of his game. As mentioned, the Seve factor can play a small part in decisions. Both Santiago Tarrio (100/1) and Angel Hidalgo (125/1) due some attention. Tarrio is on a 26-3 record here last two starts. Hidalgo finished 17th on debut here and holds a 4th at the correlated Valderrama.

Jamie Donaldson (125/1) drew consideration as well. He is excellent in the wind and some fair old gusts are forecast this week. He has a 3rd, 7th, and 9th at Crans as well as a 5th, 6th, and 6th at Le Golf National and a 4th and 10th at Valderrama. His price was slightly a tad too long, when hoping for a longer price on a golfer making his debut appearance at Muthaiga and only showing glimmers of form his last couple of starts.

Muthaiga Golf Club hosts our Magical Kenya Open betting tips

Magical Kenya Open Golf Betting Tips

Suggested Staking
Posted in WinDaily Premium Discord Monday 19 Feb at 06:00AM ET

Thriston Lawrence – Magical Kenya Open Golf Betting Tips Favourite
5u E/W +1600 (Unibet with 6 places 1/5 odds)

Aaron Cockerill
2u E/W +3000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Adrian Otaegui
2u E/W +4000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

“Nacho” Ignacio Mijares Elvira
1u E/W +5500 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
2u Top 20 +260 (Bet365)

Masahiro Kawamura – Magical Kenya Open Golf Betting Tips Best Value
1u E/W +6600 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
2u Top 20 +280 (Bet365)

Matthias Schwab
0.5u E/W +14000 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
1u Top 20 +475 (Bet365)
And
2u Top 40 +170 (Bet365)

Player Profiles

Thriston Lawrence – Magical Kenya Open Golf Betting Tips Favourite

Long-term readers of these pages will be well aware it is rare for me to go heavy up the top of a betting board. The beauty of golf is that any player can win on their day. With large fields of up to 156 players, golf betting provides some of the best opportunities for leverage over the bookmaker.

It should come to attention when I do so. Although not the shortest odds we have ever taken, South African Thriston Lawrence presents an extremely appealing profile this week. He is worthy of a 10 unit total stake at 16/1. That represents a third of our total stake this week, allowed for by reducing to 6 selections and weighting accordingly.

The course form and correlated performances are impeccable. Lawrence finished 2nd here in his sole appearance. He then went on to win at Crans-sur-Sierre 5 months later. He also holds a 6th at Valderrama and a 20th and 35th at Le Golf National.

After a major deep-dive into a basically new golf course at the Dubai Invitational, I mentioned correlation to those similar courses. Lawrence was mentioned and duly finished 2nd alongside Rory McIlroy and just behind Tommy Fleetwood. A small drop-off in form holds some minor concerns.

However, a return to the motherland of Africa where he has done some of his best may well revitalize him. Perhaps most pleasing with Lawrence is that when in contention, he so often finds a way to win. 4 wins in 2022 and 2023 demonstrate as such. Two of those wins came in Africa. Let’s hope he can add a third this week.

Aaron Cockerill

Aaron Cockerill is in superb form of late. I have been waiting specifically for the Magical Kenya Open to betting him. It nearly cost us a big drop in odds here, as were he to have completed a victory the inevitable plunge would’ve occurred.

Since 3rd December, Cockerill played 5 consecutive tournaments finishing 25th or better. Most notably for me was the 4th at the Dubai Desert Classic, 6th at the Bahrain Championship, and 23rd at Ras Al Khaimah Championship. All present as bomber paradises, which is certainly not Cockerill’s game. It is always worthy of attention when a golfer performs on golf courses away from his baseline skills. It suggests a great opportunity when playing on a golf course that should suit.

That is exactly what Cockerill finds this week. The last 3 months he is 20th for accuracy in this field but just 55th for distance. He also ranks 9th for SG: APP, 5th for SG: ATG, and 13th for SG: Putting. Basically, were it not for a lack of driving distance he probably would’ve already notched a win this season.

Of course, that is not an issue at Muthaiga and his driving accuracy and approach prowess can fully shine. The 2nd on debut in 2022 here hopefully preludes a win this week.

Adrian Otaegui

Moving down the board, we find Adrian Otaegui languishing as long as 50/1. Much of that has to do with a fall off in performance of late. I hold less concerns than most, given so many of those courses are simply unsuitable for his game. He is an extremely short hitter, sitting 111/156 in this field for driving distance but 3rd for accuracy over the last year. This is a much better fit.

That is demonstrated by a 20th at the Dubai Invitational coming on a track that demanded accuracy. Form of 34-30 is decent enough for the Spaniard. His win in 2022 at Valderrama alongside an 11th and 17th there is another key indicator of his suitability. Additionally, his form at the Open de France is superb with results of 7-12-MC-13-16 in his last 5 starts at Le Golf National.

I’m happy to include him in my Magical Kenya Open golf betting tips off the back of his course suitability and happily accept his long odds. He would be much closer to 25/1 had he shown anything closer to his average performance of late.

Nacho Elvira

We continue with another Spaniard with the bang in-form Nacho Elvira. He arrives having gained significantly on approach in his last three starts. That is the first time he has gained on approach for three straight tournaments since 2021.

A 40th in his first look here was far from disgraceful at what can be a tricky course on first look. He holds great credentials from Crans-sur-Sierre with a 4th, 9th, and 13th there when nowhere near the form we find him now. That suits that both the high altitude and fiddly ball-striking required could match perfectly this week.

I also appreciate with Elvira that his short-game should come to the form is the winds remain as strong as forecast. His ability to scramble and make putts could prove invaluable down the stretch with the inevitable missed greens this week.

Masahiro Kawamura – Magical Kenya Open Golf Betting Tips Best Value

Much like Cockerill, I had this event lined up for Kawamura for some time. The 7th placed finish at the long Emirates Golf Club was impressive, losing strokes off the tee simply from his driving distance. A 16th when last sighted in a windy Qatar Masters was also noteworthy.

It could be as simple as pointing these two performances out alongside a runner-up finish here in 2023 to make our case. But further strength can be found in his comp course performances. Valderrama he has gone 39-8-37-21 and at Crans-sur-Sierre 21-9-8 in his last three starts there.

Over the last 12 months, Kawamura is 20th for accuracy and 10th for SG: APP in this field. He looks a fabulous bet at anything 55/1 and longer.

Matthias Schwab

Finally, I made some space on my Magical Kenya Open betting card for Matthias Schwab. Touted as one of the next big products of the DP World Tour, he has really struggled the last two years on the PGA Tour. This standard of field should be much more to his liking.

His best PGA Tour performances have almost always come on courses that favour accuracy. 11th at Silverado, 9th at TPC Louisiana, 21st at Mayakoba, 16th at TPC Deere Run, and 7th at the Honda Classic come to mind.

We need to deep-dive a bit further into Schwab’s history as a result. In 2019 he finished 8th around Crans-sur-Sierre and in 2021 had a 15th place finish at Valderrama. A 12th in the DP World Tour flagship BMW PGA Championship came in elite company just before departing for the PGA. Wentworth is far from the worst comp course, with Aaron Rai having finished runner-up there and a winner on this course on the Challenge Tour in 2017.

It was on the Challenge Tour I found the most interesting nugget for Schwab. He played on this course in 2018 and finished 8th in his only look. That came despite a dreadful opening round of 76 (+5). In fact, nobody was better from Friday-Sunday. On the face of it this profiles as a golfer playing his first tournament on African grasses on a tricky course to figure out, before learning quickly and finding it extremely suitable to his game.

The last time we found a near identical profile was betting Daniel Hillier at the British Masters. He played at The Belfry on the Challenge Tour opening with a 73 (+1) before shooting the best combined score for the remaining three rounds. And we all know what happened with that bet…

🎉BOOM! Another WINNER🎉
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Selected at 80/1, Daniel Hillier secures the win for @WinDailySports with a stunning finish including an Eagle-Birdie-Eagle run from 15.

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— David Bieleski (@deepdivegolf) July 2, 2023

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5 months ago 0 comment

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Ras Al Khaimah Championship Betting Tips: DeepDiveGolf’s Best Bets And Player Profiles

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 6 months ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Al Hamra hosts our Ras Al Khaimah Championship Betting Tips

Before getting into our betting tips for the Ras Al Khaimah Championship, I do recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch-up on all my deep-dive analysis of Al Hamra Golf Club this week, correlated course form, and weather for the tournament. Hopefully, this helps provide a glimpse into some of my process behind the Ras Al Khaimah Championship golf betting tips below.

Another extremely close week for us. Adrian Meronk finished 2nd by one shot at 25/1 and also just missed out on first-round leader at 33/1. Frustratingly, he missed two 3ft5in putts in the first round costing us both bets. Joaquin Niemann played well as predicted, finishing 4th also at 25/1. Both returned full place payouts at +625. We also cashed a top 40 on Jayden Schaper at +180. It was a profit of +9.65 units for the week.

Of those unlucky to miss out on the card this week, Zander Lombard, Richard Mansell, and Daniel Hillier headed the list. Lombard has been in excellent form of late, plus has a great record with 2nd and 3rd in his last two tournaments at Al Hamra. This grade of DP World Tour tournament seems the level he will secure his first win. However, losing two tournaments straight on approach and 22/1 was a tad short.

Mansell has plenty of distance and a great record on driver heavy golf courses. He had a great first round in Dubai, cashing a 80/1 first-round leader for us although split through dead-heat. He did fade heavily over the rest of the tournament, which was enough to see him excluded. Daniel Hillier deserves respect on a good setup for him. A couple missed cuts in Dubai meant others were narrowly preferred.

Ras Al Khaimah Championship Betting Tips

Suggested Staking
Updated with best place odds at 22:00 ET 23 January

Hennie du Plessis
2.5pt E/W +3500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Tom McKibbin – Ras Al Khaimah Championship Favourite
2.5pt E/W +4000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Louis de Jager
1pt E/W +6000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +280 (Bet365)

Jayden Schaper
1pt E/W +7000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +300 (Bet365)

Johannes Veerman – Ras Al Khaimah Championship Best Value Bet
0.5pt E/W +10000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +425 (Bet365)
And
2pt Top 40 +145 (Bet365)

Callum Shinkwin
0.5pt E/W +10000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +425 (Bet365)
And
2pt Top 40 +145 (Bet365)

Jeong Weon Ko
0.5pt E/W +22500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +750 (Bet365)
And
2pt Top 40 +300 (TAB)

Player Profiles

Hennie du Plessis

First, we start with a South African in young Hennie du Plessis. As mentioned in my tournament preview, par 5 scoring has a big influence on performance at Al Hamra Golf Club. Multiple best performers at this tournament have sat in the top 10 for par 5 scoring in either 2023 or 2022. Hennie du Plessis was the best for par 5 scoring in 2023 and 4th in 2022.

Much of that comes with his prowess off the tee. Du Plessis is the 13th longest driver in this field and 8th for SG: OTT. He is also 24th in SG: APP and 12th SG: T2G in this field over the last 6 months. That combination of ball-striking is ideal for this course.

His lack of ATG should be tempered on this course, where the large greens see a reduced number of misses. The rough is mild and bunkers relatively simple, meaning this should be less of a factor this week. It was that which held him back last week in Dubai. He was 20th SG: OTT, 36th SG: APP, and 22nd in SG: PUTT. That was one of the best fields on the DP World Tour and this is much easier. Although this is his first trip to the Ras Al Khaimah Championship, it looks a fabulous course fit and he is too long in betting markets at 35/1.

Tom McKibbin – Ras Al Khaimah Championship Favourite

A lad from Holywood Golf Club won the Dubai Desert Classic last week. Obviously, that was Rory McIlroy. I am hoping that recent victory provides some inspiration for another Holywood golfer: the talented 21 year old Tom McKibbin.

I’m not sure what they put in the water in the small village of Holywood, as it has somehow produced another huge hitting prodigy. The Northern Irishman is 6th in this field in SG: OTT over the last 6 months. It was an excellent Dubai swing for McKibbin in his own right. He was 14th at the Dubai Desert Classic, his best finish in a Rolex Series tournament thus far, and 25th at the Dubai Invitational.

That came off the back of some truly excellent ball-striking. He was 3rd for SG: OTT, behind only McIlroy and runner-up Meronk. He was also 19th for SG: APP to suggest his swing is in great shape. McKibbin really struggled on the ultra fast icy greens of Emirates Golf Club. Certainly, these are a lot slower and easier.

McKibbin was 14th for par 5 scoring in his debut DP World Tour season. He managed a 36th here last year, in a promising start for a young golfer finding their feet on tour. He would quickly notch his first DP World Tour victory at the Porsche European Open. That is at the brutal Green Eagle Golf Course, the longest course on the tour schedule. McKibbin has a big future ahead of him, and another DP World Tour victory here would be unsurprising.

Louis de Jager

Heading to some longer odds, we add another South African to the Ras Al Khaimah Championship betting card. De Jager is another big hitter of the golf ball whose best performances have come on driver favoured golf courses. Notably, he has never missed a cut at any of our comp courses. 14th at the Portugal Masters in his debut season, 6th at the Open De Espana, and 4th in October at the new Andalucia Masters host course correlate nicely. Obviously, they were all driver heavy courses but also tick the Iberian Peninsula form link we see here.

De Jager showed he suited this course nicely with a 28th on his first look. That is always promising for me when a golfer can perform on a track with no prior course knowledge. Additionally, he finished 12th in par 5 scoring in 2023 and 19th in 2022. The performance last week in Dubai is of little concern, with SG: ATG again the main factor. Otherwise, his game looked stout. Particularly, finishing 20th for SG: APP and 29th for SG: PUTT on some tricky surfaces.

Jayden Schaper

The final in our trifecta of South African’s on the card this week, Schaper returns after making our card at the Dubai Desert Classic. All things told, a 38th place finish was an excellent return for the 22 year old.

Schaper was 23rd for SG: OTT last week and 15th for SG: PUTT. Prior to that, he had rattled off 4 consecutive top 10 finishes to end the 2023 season. Those all came in Africa, but this course does really remind me of some of their tracks. Particularly, akin to the Club at Steyn City where he finished 17th. Big hitting German Nick Bachem won there for us in 2023, tipped at 100/1.

💥WINNER! 1 down, 2 to go!💥

Moore (+7000) last week, now Nick Bachem (+11000 Fanduel) WINS #JonssonWorkwearOpen!

We also have Cam Young (33/1) in the semifinals #WGCMatchPlay

Detry, Norrman, and Martin contending at #CoralesChampionship

SUB today: https://t.co/71YCYRoeQq https://t.co/7r3K0LMsp5
— David Bieleski (@deepdivegolf) March 26, 2023

Another link can be found in the Barbasol Championship. In his first ever PGA Tour tournament, he finished 16th at a course dominated by longer hitters. Again, a big hitter in Vincent Norrman won the event. Schaper has oodles of talent, and I suspect we will see him regarded in the top 20 DP World Tour players in quick fashion.

Johannes Veerman – Ras Al Khaimah Championship Best Value Bet

Quite clearly my easiest bet of the week. Veerman was the first name I looked for on the betting board, and I was very pleasantly surprised to find him at 100/1.

It was a fantastic Dubai Desert Classic for Veerman. He finished 16th, in what was his first start of the season. That is following on from an 8th in 2023 and 35th in 2022 with his first look at Emirates Golf Club. Last week’s performance came despite struggling on those firm and fast greens. He was 66th in SG: Putt but 28th for SG: OTT, 9th for SG: APP, and 25th for SG: ATG.

Veerman now finds himself at a course he clearly suits. Two starts at Al Hamra have already seen him finish 12th and 19th. Importantly, he has gained strokes putting here in a big way. Again, highlighting his suitability to this type of course is a 8th in his only look at the Portugal Masters.

Completing the picture are his big gains on approach of late. In this field, he ranks 49th for SG: APP when looking over the last two years. Zooming in on the last 6 months, he jumps to 13th in the rankings. With plenty of evidence his ball-striking is entering elevated levels, he finds himself a track where he has putted really well. He is simply the best value on the board, where fair pricing would be more in the 70/1 range.

Callum Shinkwin

We stick at 100/1 for our next Ras Al Khaimah Championship betting tips, with long-hitting Englishman Callum Shinkwin. Behind Veerman, Shinkwin again made a very obvious selection this week.

Unfortunately, Shinkwin had to WD with a wrist injury last year here. That was when sitting at -8 and tied 9th. Prior to that, he had already shown this was a course to his liking with a 21st and 25th in two appearances.

Correlated form is easy to find. A pair of 17th place finishes at the Portugal Masters included on debut there. His 2nd DP World tour victory was at Celtic Manor, a former Ryder Cup host and a driver heavy golf course. His 2020 Cyprus Open links both in terms of low scoring Mediterranean coastal golf courses and long hitters. Names such as Samooja, MacIntyre, and Valimaki are all big drivers and littered the leaderboard behind him.

Shinkwin also shares great form at neighbouring Emirates Golf Club. A 4th placed finish in 2023 was followed by a strong 11th place finish last week. Again, he gained in all the right areas. He was 7th for SG: OTT, 14th for SG: APP, and 20th for SG: PUTT. Sitting 28th for driving distance and 26th for SG: APP in this field over the past 6 months demonstrates the fundamentals of his game match perfectly for Al Hamra.

Following the WD here, Shinkwin sadly had two months out of the game recovering. Expect perhaps some retribution on the golf course this week, at a setup that clearly suits his play.

Jeong Weon Ko

Finally, wrapping up our tips is a speculative play on Jeong Weon Ko. This is a boom or bust type play, but what you would expect from a golfer available between 275/1 to 300/1 depending how many places you are willing to forego.

One of the biggest drivers in this field, Ko ranks 21st for driving distance in this field over the last 6 months. Ko really struggled last week in Dubai as the tournament went on. He was simply not up to the test as the greens got firmer and faster over the weekend. Instead, we can take some solace that he opened with a decent 69 when the course was at it’s easiest and made the cut. Majority of his lost strokes came with the putter, where he ranked 73rd. The fundamentals though looked decent enough for a first start of the year being 32nd for SG: OTT, 56th for SG: APP, and 49th SG: ATG.

Ko was 28th on this golf course in 2023, his only look at Al Hamra. Additionally, he finished 7th at the Andalucia Masters in October. The tournament was littered with other strong drivers of the golf ball, led by winner Meronk but also the likes of Schmid, Mansell, and De Jager all just ahead of him on the leaderboard. He finished ahead of the likes of other big hitters like Pavon, Perez, Bachem, and Olesen. It all suggests this could be the type of test that suits at a big price.

DP World Tour Fantasy Reminder

Having now read our Ras Al Khaimah Championship betting tips, now is a great time to lock in your line-up for the DP World Tour fantasy contest. We have a fun league you can join here using league code ZD74TJ6S or searching for DeepDiveGolf. It is free to play and always good to see who will finish on top from the WinDaily family!

6 months ago 0 comment

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Ras Al Khaimah Championship Preview: DeepDiveGolf’s Tournament Analysis, Weather, And Advice

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 6 months ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

DeepDiveGolf provides his Ras Al Khaimah Championship preview

The DP World Tour remains in the United Arab Emirates for another week as we preview the Ras Al Khaimah Championship. It has been a start to the year with frustratingly close calls every week. This week in Dubai, it was Adrian Meronk in 2nd and Joaquin Niemann in 4th. We cash a full place payout for us with both at +625. We also cash a Top 40 on Jayden Schaper at +180. Although frustrating, we can take solace in the fact we are consistently finding the value plays that are in contention. It only becomes a matter of time before one finds the Sunday we need to get the job done and collect in a big way.

Missing not just one but two 3ft5in putts on Day 1 costs us both FRL at 33/1 and also the win at 25/1

Full places cashing #DubaiDesertClassic
🥈Meronk 2.5pts +625
4th Niemann 2.5 pts +625

Keep finding those in the mix and they'll get across the line 👊#RolexSeries #DPWorldTour pic.twitter.com/G8uFFe5GU7
— David Bieleski (@deepdivegolf) January 21, 2024

This is where the equation of expected value comes into play. Whenever you place a wager, you will have a expected return from that bet over time. The aim is to place a bet at odds which are not an accurate reflection of the win equity that golfer actually possesses. Rory McIlroy deservedly claimed his 4th Dubai Desert Classic title this week. It is an event where I first scored for him as a 16 year old amateur, and where he secured his first tournament win just three years later. However, he would need to win the event more than 5 times as often as Meronk or Niemann to justify his very short odds. It is easy to fall into the trap of seeing a bet cash and thinking it was a good play.

It is key to make that important distinction, where you can actually place a bet that wins but over time it is a losing bet. Let’s dive into some research to help us find the value with our Ras Al Khaimah Championship preview.

Decided to wade into controversy today 🫣🤣

I thought I would go and have a look at the cards of those who supposedly tipped Rory McIlroy this week at the #DubaiDesertClassic. In all honesty, I wasn't surprised by what I found.

4 of the 5 cards were accessible while the other… pic.twitter.com/YnEMPtuAq7
— David Bieleski (@deepdivegolf) January 22, 2024

Al Hamra Golf Club Course Analysis

The DP World Tour move just 90 minutes up the road to Ras Al Khaimah. This will be the 4th time Al Hamra Golf Club has hosted an event. Do note that one was titled the Ras Al Khaimah Classic instead of Championship, so make sure to take a course history preview here to get the full breadth of data for your analysis.. There also was the 2018 Ras Al Khaimah Challenge Tour Grand Final and the 2016 and 2017 Ras Al Khaimah Golf Challenge on the grade below the DP World Tour.

What has been clear thus far is that the strong drivers of the golf ball experience a distinct advantage. Nicolai Hojgaard won in 2022 and Ryan Fox lifted his first DP World Tour trophy here a week later. Jordan Smith won here on the Challenge Tour, with Meronk a runner-up at the same level also holding a 4th and 6th at DP World Tour grade. Victor Perez has finishes of 7-2-13 in three starts. All are also excellent approach players.

Winner Daniel Gavins last season was the anomaly. He gained +9.04 SG: Putting on the field in the best putting week of his career. That was also a particularly windy tournament, correlating to putting became a more decisive factor that year.

That all makes sense for a 7,410 yard par 72. Fairways are plenty wide. Greens are also above average size. With winning scores typically ranging in the -17 to -22 mark, taking care of the four par 5s is going to go a long way towards victory here. All those players named, outside Gavins, have finished in the top 10 of par 5 scoring in either 2022 or 2023.

Al Hamra Golf Club Course Comps

As always in our weekly preview, we provide some golf courses where correlating form may prove influential at the Ras Al Khaimah Championship. In it’s short stint on the DP World Tour, Al Hamra Golf Club has already seen prior course form prove fairly “sticky”. This correlation will only fully reveal itself the more tournaments we have at this venue. But, the fact we have seen multiple longer odds players build up a decent record here already proves promising.

He surmised in our preview of the 2023 Andalucia Masters that Copa Sotogrande could be a good correlation to here. It was the first professional tournament at that golf course. Sadly, LIV Golf took over hosting tournaments at the iconic Valderrama. The links do seem well-founded. There has long been a link between Iberian Peninsula and the Middle East courses. This comes from a combination of climate, low scoring, positive driving, and generally being in windier coastal locations. Reading through the leaderboard, long drivers dominated. Meronk won and was followed by names like Schmid, Mansell, Hanna, De Jager, Ko, Olesen, Perez, Pavon, and Bachem to name just a few.

Other Iberian form can be found at former Portugal Masters course Dom Pedro. Likewise, Open de Espana host Club de Campo Villa de Madrid should be considered. Both preview to be driver paradise’s over the years and show good leaderboard correlation to the Ras Al Khaimah Championship.

Last week’s host, Emirates Golf Club, is far from the worst comp for our Ras Al Khaimah Championship preview. Players such as Meronk, Arnaus, and Fisher link the two nicely. This also provides a nice combination with a guide to recent incoming form.

Ras Al Khaimah Championship Weather Preview

As is the typical for the region, you will often find the mornings calm and winds to build in the afternoon. This is the same instance of on-shore breeze we so often see in the Iberian Peninsula and Middle East. This should particularly play a factor in first-round leader markets.

Whether a tournament long draw advantage develops is less likely. Currently, both Thursday and Friday the winds look similar. Winds are clam in the mornings and reaching 10-15 mph gusts in the afternoon. Sunday does look to see some increased winds. This could present some opportunity for in-play bets. Should the afternoon end up extremely windy, a golfer not too far back going off in more favourable conditions may be able to chase down the leaders before the winds arrive.

Our latest weather forecasts using premium models will be available in our premium Discord channel.

Ras Al Khaimah Championship Preview Golf Betting Tips

Thank you for reading my Ras Al Khaimah Championship preview and tournament analysis.
If you would like access to my golf betting tips and player profiles for the Ras Al Khaimah Championship, you can find these here.

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6 months ago 0 comment

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Dubai Desert Classic Betting Tips: DeepDiveGolf’s Best Bets And Player Profiles

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 6 months ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Before getting into our betting tips for the Dubai Desert Classic, I do recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch-up on all my deep-dive analysis of the Majilis Course at Emirates Golf Club, correlated course form, and weather for the tournament. It also helps provide context and some of the background research behind the Dubai Desert Classic betting tips below.

A few names unlucky to miss out on the Dubai Desert Classic betting card. Yannik Paul and Thriston Lawrence make our list of golfers who just missed the card for the second week running. Paul was left off just, with others preferred at similar odds. Lawrence was again brilliant at the Dubai Invitational, and has shown good recent form in Dubai. However, he has three missed cuts here from three appearances. We would prefer to see him display something on this golf course first, especially on a course where prior course form is the most correlated of all tournaments on the DP World Tour.

At longer odds, Adri Arnaus showed some signs of life at the back-end of 2023 and has an excellent record at the Emirates. He looked truly dreadful last week, and had he shown any glimmer of form he likely would’ve made the card here. Haotong Li also looked promising at a juicy 250/1 at market open. However, that was very swiftly backed into 140/1 within half an hour making that position untenable.

Overall, it is a rather strange market this week. There is a real divide between the class of the field and the rest of the pack. Highlighting this is the lack of any golfer being priced between 50/1 to 65/1 on open.

Dubai Desert Classic Betting Tips

Updated 16 Jan 00:00AM ET
As always with early odds, prices may fluctuate as bookmakers open markets. Bet365 allows cash out and will update to reflect best prices once other release pricing
Suggested Staking

Joaquin Niemann – Your Dubai Desert Classic Favourite
2.5pt E/W +2500 (Unibet with 6 places 1/4 odds)

Adrian Meronk
2.5pt E/W +2500 (Unibet with 6 places 1/4 odds)

Ryan Fox
2.5pt E/W +3300 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)

Thorbjorn Olesen
2.5pt E/W +3300 (Unibet with 6 places 1/4 odds)

Jordan Smith
2pt E/W +4500 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)

Jayden Schaper
0.5pt E/W +12500 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +450 (TAB)
And
3pt Top 40 +180 (TAB)

Kalle Samooja – Your Dubai Desert Classic Best Value
0.5pt E/W +15000 (Unibet with 6 places 1/4 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +550 (TAB)
And
3pt Top 40 +210 (TAB)

Player Profiles

Joaquin Niemann – Dubai Desert Classic Betting Tips Favourite

The first name I searched for in the market was Joaquin Niemann. Initially, we were to exclude him as he opened at a short 16/1. He was not liked at that sort of price given this field. However, he drifted to 25/1 when more bookmakers released their pricing which is a lot more playable.

Overall, I suspect Niemann has developed significantly over the past year. Getting a gauge on the state of LIV Golf players still proves notoriously difficult. Particularly, the lack of strokes gained data is a major hinderance. We can look to the 5 top 10s in the 2023 LIV season for some indications. Stepping into DP World Tour level, Niemann ended 2023 with a 5th and a win in Australia.

With that win, he earned an automatic spot into the Open Championship. Niemann has slipped outside the top 50 in the world, and likely undeservedly so. He is on record speaking to unfair those current rankings are and he is desperate to qualify for the other majors. That is the reason we see him this week. Simply put, the man is on a mission.

The link between the Dubai Desert Classic and the Masters is well established. Niemann was 16th in 2023, sitting in the top 10 at the halfway stage. He is also a winner at Riviera. Much akin to Emirates Golf Club, it is another ball-strikers course where shaping your shots is imperative. It is also one of the best Masters’ form guides. We see more evidence in his 3rd place finish at the Memorial, with Muirfield a course designed by Nicklaus with Augusta National firmly in mind.

Desert golf looks to suit Niemann, with an 8th and 10th in the Saudi International and 5th in Oman noted. Expect a strong showing this week.

Adrian Meronk

If the Dubai Desert Classic has proven an excellent guide to the emerging talent on the DP World Tour, there may be none better suited than Meronk this week. It always grabs my attention when a player can perform well at their first look on a golf course. The strong driving Pole did just that, finishing 4th here on debut. Perhaps no surprise, being a golf course built perfectly for his game and being a Dubai resident.

Other Middle East form is also easy to find. Included in that is a 7th at the neighbouring Jumeirah Golf Estates for the DP World Tour Championship, a 4th and 6th at the Ras Al Khaimah Championship and a 2nd at Challenge Tour level there, a 3rd in Doha, and a 10th in Abu Dhabi. Strong driver golf courses are a key this week. The record at Marco Simon holds particular appeal, where Meronk has always performed well having a win and runner-up finish in three appearances with strong fields. Finally, a 3rd at the 2023 BMW International Open appeals, being a golf course where multiple winners have claimed both that title and the Dubai Desert Classic.

Shaking off the rust at the Dubai Invitational last week, Meronk recovered from an average first round 70 to eventually finish 10th. Particularly, the driver looked excellent sitting 2nd in the field for SG: OTT gaining both for distance and accuracy. Complimenting this was a 16th in SG: APP, leading the field in the final round for GIR. This course is an infinitely better fit. Now on the PGA Tour, he will be keen to take advantage of his limited playing opportunities on the DP World Tour. Don’t be surprised to see Meronk lift his 5th DP World Tour trophy this week.

Ryan Fox

The long-hitting Kiwi has quickly established himself as a man for the big occasion. Elevating his game in 2022 and 2023, Fox remains on the rise and deservedly also earned a PGA Tour card. It is the nature of his titles which holds the most appeal. A winner in the desert in neighbouring emirate Ras Al Khaimah, he has won both the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship and the BMW PGA Championship. Those are flagship events on the DP World Tour, just as we find here this week.

Foxy’s record at the Emirates Golf Club is solid. A 30th and 41st in 2020 and 2021 were respectable with where his game was at the time. A 26th in 2022 was then followed by a 20th here last year, where he was also in the top 5 after the first round. The 20th also needs to be read in the context that he was fighting a stomach bug that week. Fox spoke about how fatigue caught up with him during that tournament. He claimed he was glad just to finish the final round. In that light, a 20th place finish in this standard of field was impressive.

Fox has a record of 26-14-3 at the heavily correlated Eichenreid and a 26th on debut at Augusta National also impressive. A finishing weekend of 68-68 at the Dubai Invitational came on a fiddly course. This should be more suitable.

Thorbjorn Olesen

Another Dubai resident, Olesen was well in contention at neighbouring Dubai Creek last week before a final round 71 derailed his title charge. Still, sitting 8th in a decent field was a promising start to the new year.

Olesen game has recovered back to it’s full skill, after some time in the wilderness. You can mark this time precisely to when found not guilty in a court case at the end of 2021, ending a turbulent period for him personally. His record at the Emirates Golf Club is excellent, reading MC-42-3-5-MC-8-32-29-7-35-16. A 4th last year at Ras Al Khaimah, won previously by strong drivers like Fox and Nicolai Hojgaard, compliments a 10th around Eichenreid and a 16th at Marco Simone.

The Masters link is also there for Olesen. He was a very impressive 6th on debut at Augusta National, with a 44th and 21st in his other two appearances there. A 7 time DP World Tour winner, victory at The Belfry in 2022 again has good links to the Dubai Desert Classic from players at both short and long odds. Finishing 2023 with a run of 17-9-9-3 suggest his game is back to it’s superb best.

Jordan Smith

It was the usual story for Jordan Smith at the Dubai Invitational last week. One of the best ball-strikers on the DP World Tour, he finished the week 3rd for SG: OTT and lead the field in SG: APP when finishing 4th. The short-game was what held him back, particularly finishing 40/60 for SG: ATG. However, his putter showed some small signs of life being a small gainer with the flatstick.

That is always the issue with Smith, where if he can find some form putting he often goes on to win. The putter has been at field average his last two appearances here, where he owns a solid record of 23-MC-29-32-60-9-20. A winner and runner-up at Ras Al Khaimah is again promising. As is the superb record at Marco Simone, where he holds a 12th and 16th the past two years. Furthermore, at Eichenried is last two appearances have been a 3rd and 8th.

He won on another driver heavy course at the Portugal Masters, giving credence to Iberian Peninsula form often seen in champions at the Dubai Desert Classic. Finally, the win at Green Eagle Golf Course is far from the worst link being the longest golf course on the DP World Tour. 45/1 looks juicy, placing him as the longest odds of a relatively small pool of likely winners.

Jayden Schaper

Delving past a fairly mediocre mid-range in this field, there are a couple of speculative selections at triple figure odds. The first of those is the young South African talent Jayden Schaper. South Africans have long held an excellent record here, beyond the great Ernie Els to golfers like Charl Schwartzel, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Richard Sterne, and Brandon Stone.

The 22 year old Schaper has oodles of natural talent and this is the tournament that has often seen emerging stars first arrive on the scene in a significant way. A strong driver of the golf ball, he hinted to his continuing development at the end of 2023 with 4 consecutive top 10 finishes when returning to the motherland.

Data Golf currently rank Schaper as 162nd in the world, compared to a ranking of just 307th in the OWGR. Large discrepancies such as this one are often an indication that we can expect some imminent correction in a big way. Winning here would likely be a surprise, but a finish inside the top 20 or 40 would not be.

Kalle Samooja – Dubai Desert Classic Betting Tips Best Value

Finally, we round out our betting tips this week with our best value bet on the board. Having expected a price in the range of 80/1 to 100/1, I am delighted to be able to add him to the card at 150/1.

As in our Dubai Desert Classic betting preview, the Majilis Course at Emirates Golf Club has the strongest links of any golf course on the DP World Tour. Samooja has the best record here of any golfer in this field not named Rory McIlroy. Form here of 16-27-4-12-38 in just five starts is truly superb, especially for a golf only hovering around the top 300 in the world.

Samooja also had a 9th last year at Marco Simone and on another driver heavy course for the Open de Espana. Further, his record at the very long Green Eagle reads 18-1-22 in his last three appearances. Much like Niemann, Samooja will need a strong performance this week. Winning a qualifying spot for the LIV Golf tour, he will soon have few opportunities to earn OWGR points, and this is a golf course that evidently suits his game.

One and Done Tips

Finally, if you haven’t read already make sure to check out this article. The majority of One and Done golf contests began last week at the Sony Open. I have put together your ULTIMATE strategy guide to the season. I deep-dive optimal One and Done strategy, as well as preview every single tournament this year. It is well worth a bookmark in any case, to get a brief overview of each golf course on the PGA Tour this year.

You can join me in the free WinDaily One and Done contest here. It is always fun and I look forward to a wee bit of competition in 2024!

6 months ago 0 comment

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Dubai Desert Classic Preview: DeepDiveGolf’s Tournament Analysis, Weather, And Advice

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 6 months ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

The DP World Tour remains in Dubai for another week for one of the season highlights. As a Rolex Series event, this is not only one of the best fields but also one of the largest purses. The list of past winners reads as a who’s who of European golf. It is often a marker of golfers we can expect big futures from. Included in that list is Rory McIlroy. I met a curly haired 16 year old amateur McIlroy here in 2006. He would achieve his first ever tournament win here in 2009 and has thrice lifted the famous coffee pot trophy. Emirates Golf Club was also my home course for the 8 years I lived in Dubai. Hopefully, that additional local experience helps our Dubai Desert Classic preview.

A very young DeepDiveGolf at the Dubai Desert Classic with Lee Westwood — A very young DeepDiveGolf with Lee Westwood at a coaching clinic 2007 Dubai Desert Classic

As frustrated as Rory will be after the inaugural Dubai Invitational, where he really should have won, it is perhaps easy to feel the same about our week. However, I feel quietly positive after the tournament. It was always going to be a tricky event to tip. Firstly, markets were dominated by McIlroy and eventual champion Tommy Fleetwood at very short single figure odds. Further, the golf course had not been used on tour for 24 years. It took some extensive diving into 1990s leaderboards!

I was pleased to see our extra deep-dive analysis proved true. We nailed the winning score, our course comps worked perfectly, and key metrics were spot on. Frustratingly, our three golfers named as last off the card all made the top 10 with Thriston Lawrence runner-up. Overall, I take it as a positive our analysis was so accurate. It bodes well entering our Dubai Desert Classic preview and the season as a whole.

Rory McIlroy is in the Dubai Desert Classic field in our preview

Emirates Golf Club Course Analysis

The Majilis course at Emirates Golf Club plays host to the Dubai Desert Classic, as we preview what to expect from the golf course this week. This venue has held the tournament since 1989, except for 1999 and 2000 when last week’s Dubai Invitational venue Dubai Creek hosted briefly. Whereas Dubai Creek is a short and narrow course, the Emirates is a long and expansive property. The Majilis course plays as a 7,428 yard par 72 and is one of the longest golf courses on the DP World Tour.

That provides the first clue of what is required for success here. A strong driver is well correlated to success here. Rory McIlroy is obviously one of the best in the business with that club. Bryson DeChambeau is a past champion with a record of 18-1-8 here. Other past champions Lucas Herbert and Viktor Hovland can send the ball out there, as can Sergio Garcia who is both long and straight with the driver.

Our second clue comes from approach play. Obviously, several of those already named are some of the best ball-strikers in the business. Names like Paul Casey, Lee Westwood, Tyrrell Hatton, and Ian Poulter add to that list. Putting also receives an uptick here compared to other golf courses.

The bulk of scoring will happen on the back 9. That features 3 par 5s and the par 4 17th which is drivable if you cut the corner. This culminates in dramatic final hole, with a carry over water required if going for the green in two. It always make for an exhilarating end of the round. Being able to draw the ball is a big positive, with majority of key holes playing right-to-left.

The 18th hole could decide the tournament for our Dubai Desert Classic preview — The 18th hole at Emirates Golf Club

Emirates Golf Club Comp Courses

Firstly, it pays to highlight in our Dubai Desert Classic preview that prior course form is vitally important. This is the most correlated golf course on the DP World Tour for prior form as a predictor to future success. We have seen a number of players become course specialists. Perhaps none more so than Stephen Gallacher. He held an insane record here of 10-2-1-1-3-MC-9 between 2011 and 2017. 20% of his career Top 5s came right here.

There has also been a link between the Majilis Course and Augusta National. Both Danny Willett and Sergio Gracia won The Masters they same year they lifted the Dubai Desert Classic trophy. Although the struggles of Rory at The Masters are well documented, part of the frustrations come from the fact he has also recorded 7 Top 10s.

Spaniards have always done well here. Golf on the Iberian Peninsula provides a good guide to Middle East golf. This is likely a combination of warmer weather, coastal winds, and the creativity required especially on approach. Garcia, Cabrera-Bello, Quiros, Jimenez, Olazabal, and Seve Ballesteros have all won here. The Seve factor often plays a part for Spanish golfers.

Neighbouring Jumeirah Golf Estates, host of the DP World Tour Championship, is a good guide. It ticks a driver friendly course with low scoring, comfortability in Dubai, and performance in a high class field featuring the best golfers of the year.

Eichenreid is notoriously a brutal driving course and has very strong links. Haotong Li, Hovland, Stenson, Els, Willett, Jimenez, Bjorn, and Montgomerie have all won at both golf courses. If we extend that to runner-ups, the list is even more extensive.

Dubai Desert Classic Weather Preview

It would be remiss to not speak about weather in any Dubai Desert Classic preview. The Middle Eastern tournaments are notorious for onshore breezes. With hot coastal locations like this, the land heats up throughout the day. As the land heats up, so does the air above it which then rises. This creates an area of low pressure, and see colder air from over the ocean rush onto land.

This used to be so predictable that I always tried to play the back 9 first if playing an afternoon tee-time. The winds would come in around 1pm, remaining for 3-4 hours before fading towards dusk. It meant avoiding a really tough stretch of holes from 6 to 9 into the wind. Winds have played a large part in many tournaments, none more so than in 2020 when wind specialist Lucas Herbert was victorious.

Currently, our premium modelling suggest winds look very high on the Wednesday but relatively calm during tournament play Thursday-Sunday. We will keep a sharp eye on this as the week develops, as any wave advantage here can often be very distinct and clear.

Make sure you check-in to our WinDaily Discord channel for the latest weather updates prior to tournament start.

Dubai Desert Classic Preview Golf Betting Tips

Thank you for reading my Dubai Desert Classic preview and deep-dive tournament analysis.
If you would like access to my golf betting tips and player profiles for the Dubai Desert Classic, premium customers can find these here.

One of the best aspects of a premium membership is access to our premium Discord channel. You will be able to receive one on one coaching with me, as well as ask any questions you may have

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6 months ago 0 comment

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Dubai Invitational Preview: DeepDiveGolf’s Tournament Analysis, Weather, And Advice

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 6 months ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

DeepDiveGolf is back as we preview the Dubai Invitational

With the DP World Tour kicking off their 2024 season, golf is officially back! Of course, The Sentry kicked off proceedings on the PGA Tour last week and we rocketed to +140% ROI after the first event. However, in lieu of taking early retirement for the year and letting that record stand, I though it was only right to deliver all our avid readers with at least a Dubai Invitational preview.

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Top 5 +2000 & Top 20 +190
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Top 5 +625
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Top 5 +825 (dead-heat)
12th Straka
Top 20 +162

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— David Bieleski (@deepdivegolf) January 8, 2024

It is the return of the DP World Tour, but also a return to a previously used course for our Dubai Invitational preview. The DP World Tour heads back to Dubai Creek Golf & Yacht Club for the first time since 2000. First opened in 1993, it was designed by Karl Litten. He also is the designer behind the Emirates Golf Club Majlis Course, where next week’s Dubai Desert Classic is held.

The course is a short par 71 at just 7,059 yards. The average length of par 4s and par 5s is only 449 yards. That is comparable to PGA National and Harbour Town on the PGA Tour. With a small field of just 60 golfers, it should be an intriguing event.

Dubai Creek Golf Course Analysis

The picturesque Dubai Creek Golf & Yacht Club hosted both the 1999 and 2000 Dubai Desert Classic, the only iterations held away from the Emirates Golf Club, before returning to the Majilis Course where it has remained since. The course also hosted a MENA Tour tournament in 2017, the Dubai Creek Open. You can find that leaderboard here, and it is 2nd place finisher Todd Clements providing some guidance this week.

Fact is, with a (basically) new golf course we have to take some educated guesses here for our Dubai Invitational preview. Luckily, you are in slightly more informed hands with me. I lived in Dubai 8 years growing up and learning golf. I was a member at Emirates Golf Club and played Dubai Creek as a very bad junior golfer.

For me, Dubai Creek is quite a contrast to Emirates Golf Club. Dubai Creek is heavily guarded by water, either from the Dubai Creek itself or other man-made lakes internally. Fairways are narrow and pinch in at key points. The penalty for missing is severe. And that is where Todd Clements comes in.

The only strength to Clements game is his driving accuracy. This is affirmed when looking into the very limited data left from those two Dubai Desert Classic tournaments. The vast majority of the top 10 were inside the top 20 for driving accuracy across their rounds.

The two tournaments were won at -13 and -14, but note the -13 for the MENA Tour was a 54 hole event. The standard of golf now is obviously better. And, as we have all heard this past year, the ball is travelling further. Something around -18 I suspect might be enough to get the job done this time.

Dubai Creek Course Comps

Again, some guess work is required to find some parallels to other courses here for our Dubai Invitational preview. Paul McGinley finished 2nd and 3rd in the two tournaments here. One of his 4 victories is around Valderrama, another iconic narrow course held in warm climes of Spain. 2000 winner here Jose Coceres won just one other tournament, the Catalan Open in Spain, so Valderrama may be a reasonable option to consider.

McGinley was 2nd following a play-off at Le Golf National. The 1999 winner David Howell was also a runner-up at the Open de France. Jamie Spence recorded a 2nd place finish there, alongside a 4th place finish in the 2000 tournament here. Visually, this makes a lot of sense. Both feature narrow fairways with copious amounts of water in-play.

A few form lines run though Portugal and Madeira, but they lead to dead-ends with the courses no longer featuring on the DP World Tour. We are talking about tournaments some 25 years ago after all. For perspective, Justin Rose played both events finishing 125th and 136th. But to be fair, he was 18 years old at the time… Outside those two courses, I believe a general aptitude on the Iberian Peninsula holds some appeal.

I do believe this is different to the other Dubai based golf courses on the DP World Tour. However, general positive performances in the region are a positive.

Dubai Invitational Preview Weather

A brief word on weather for our Dubai Invitational preview. Dubai Creek Golf course is very exposed to any wind. In prior iterations, winds have played a significant part in at least one round. Dubai does have a fairly reliable onshore breeze. As the land heats up air rises, so cooler winds from over the ocean rush onto land. When living there, this was almost like clockwork and would arrive around 1pm. It would then blow heavily until the early evening when it would begin to ease slightly.

However, the rejigged DP World Tour schedule has seen these events move slightly earlier in the year. Cooler temperatures means this effect is less likely. This is winter after all, so temperature will be in the low to mid 20s. That is 70-75F for those of you with metric challenges.

Current forecasts show only moderate winds for all four days. That is perhaps welcome relief for the golfers, as the number of shots where you need to tread close to water would become infinitely more difficult with wind in the picture.

Dubai Invitational Preview Golf Betting Tips

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6 months ago 0 comment

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Dubai Invitational Betting Tips: DeepDiveGolf’s Best Bets And Player Profiles

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 6 months ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Rasmus Hojgaard headlines our Dubai Invitational betting tips

Before getting into our betting tips for the Dubai Invitational, I do recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. Here I provide my deep-dive analysis of the course, correlated course form, and weather for the tournament.

With a reduced field of 60, we invariably follow suit with a smaller card than normal. In this case, I have also opted for a smaller outlay in our stake sizing. Simply put, Rory McIlroy and Tommy Fleetwood headlining the field provide a massive threat. I would often take a preference to not bet at all in such circumstances if I suspect a very short favourite will win.

Obviously, if either win the golf tournament I would not be surprised. However, if there is one flaw in McIlroy’s game it is his wedge play. On a short course, it seems a real possibility that this could turn into a bit of a wedge-fest putting competition. Secondly, Rory is not always the most accurate off the tee. He can hang the ball right on occasions. With water looming large on so many holes, that could be a factor.

In terms of Fleetwood, he has travelled from Hawai’i to Dubai for this tournament. That is not a straightforward process, nor a short journey.

A few names unlucky to miss out on the Dubai Invitational betting card. Yannik Paul, Thriston Lawrence, and Thorbjorn Olesen were last excluded. Yannik just due to a lack of starts in Dubai and poor form in his three tournaments. Likewise for Thriston, who has three missed cuts at the Dubai Desert Classic and a 41st out of 50th at the 2022 DP World Tour Championship. Although his recent 5th in 2023 was noted, it was sufficient to see others preferred. Olesen was simply too short in the market.

Dubai Invitational Betting Tips

Updated 9 Jan 7:00AM ET
Suggested Staking

Rasmus Højgaard – Dubai Invitational Betting Tips Favourite
2.5pt E/W +1800 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)

Adrian Otaegui
1pt E/W +4500 (Unibet with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
3pt Top 20 +100 (TAB)

Jeff Winther – Dubai Invitational Betting Tips Best Value
1pt E/W +9000 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
3pt Top 20 +230 (TAB)

Ashun Wu
1pt E/W +20000 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
3pt Top 20 +400 (TAB)

Dubai Invitational Betting Tips

Player Profiles

Rasmus Højgaard – Dubai Invitational Betting Tips Favourite

With an extremely tentative line drawn through Rory McIlroy and Tommy Fleetwood, we arrive at Nicolai Højgaard and Adrian Meronk. Both are long drivers of the golf ball, but neither is that accurate. If the course plays as we suspect, then Rasmus Højgaard may make a better bet at a generous 18/1.

Make no bones about it: the Højgaard twins are ultra competitive. This is perhaps best illustrated in 2021. Rasmus won the Omega European Masters, only for Nicolai to secure his first DP World Tour win a week later at the Italian Open. Undoubtedly, Nicolai is now ahead of Rasmus. The DP World Tour Championship was the last tournament these two played. Also hosted in Dubai, it was a great week for our selections as Nicolai secured a “coming of age” victory. No doubt Rasmus will be keen to right the record returning to the UAE.

🔥ANOTHER ONE!🔥
BEST way to end another great tipping season on the @DPWorldTour is with a 1-2 finish at #DPWorldTourChampionship!

🥇1st = Nicolai Hojgaard 25/1
🥈2nd = Matt Wallace 60/1
Full place at 15/1 & Top 20 +110
💵8th = Victor Perez 90/1
Top 20 +150#DPWTC #RolexSeries pic.twitter.com/2vJhDFo4Lx
— David Bieleski (@deepdivegolf) November 19, 2023

Where Nicolai is the longer of the two, Rasmus is slightly more accurate. That has translated well to his excellent performances at our two comp courses. At Le Golf National, he has finished 2nd and 4th in two attempts. The first of those appearances he appeared to be cruising to victory by quite some margin before a quintuple bogey put paid to his chances.

At Valderrama he is equally as impressive, with a 31st followed by a 5th. He holds a decent record in Dubai himself. He has finished 7th and 11th in his prior two appearances at the DP World Tour Championship. Additionally, he has a 20th and 9th at the Dubai Desert Classic.

Finally, Thomas Bjørn redesigned this golf course in 2004. No doubt he has been passing tidbits onto his fellow Danes for some invaluable advice. He has already been recorded with the Danish players playing practice rounds.

Team Denmark take to the floating 6th tee 🇩🇰#DubaiInvitational pic.twitter.com/DkKz0qLvpb
— DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) January 9, 2024

Adrian Otaegui

Given the aforementioned links to the Iberian Peninsula, there may be no better option than Otaegui. Adrian Otaegui is the most accurate driver in this field over the last 12 months by quite some margin. He is also 11th for SG: T2G and 9th for SG: APP.

The pitfall for Otaegui is usually the putter. However, we have seen some good gains in that area recently. He has consistently been gaining on the field putting since September 2023. Whereas he is 46th for putting in this field over 12 months, he moves his average to 20th in this field over the last 3 months. That warrants attention for our Dubai Invitational Tips

In terms of comp courses, he was the most recent winner at Valderrama in 2022. That was of course before LIV Golf poached one of the most iconic courses on the tour for 2023. He also holds a superb record at Le Golf National, with form of 7-12-MC-13-16.

Despite neither of the other Dubai golf courses really suiting his game, he has still managed a decent enough record at Jumeirah Golf Estates. His 4 most recent starts read 4-14-16-18. He also has a 5th and 10th at the Qatar Masters. Doha is a very exposed golf course, where accuracy has typically been preferred to driving distance.

Should the course play as we think, this would be a perfect fit for his game. Given the recent putting improvements, he looks fabulous value at 40/1 or longer.

Jeff Winther – Dubai Invitational Best Value

If the wind blows, there is often no better man for the job than Jeff Winther. Much of that has to do with his excellent putting, where he ranks 1st in this field over 6 months, 12 months, and 2 years.

He is also an accurate enough driver of the ball, despite lacking distance off the tee. In many ways, he is the inverse to many golfers. Where other golfers we are hoping their putter will come to life, Winther is a putting wizard who can spike a top finish if he finds his irons. With the very short golf course on offer here, that shouldn’t be an issue. He can instead rely on his excellent wedge play and short game.

Much like the Otaegui tip, Winther has enjoyed some success in Dubai. That comes in spite of the golf courses and what they require. He most recently finished 9th at the DP World Tour Championship. He also holds a 37th and 27th at Emirates Golf Club, despite that being a golf course that is very driver heavy and really too long for him. Additionally, he holds Iberian form with his sole DP World Tour victory coming at the Mallorca Golf Open.

But, it is the recent performance at Le Golf National that really impresses. Holding a 8th and 2nd on that track, this should be a test that suits his eye.

Ashun Wu

Finally, we finish our Dubai Invitational betting tips with a speculative play on Ashun Wu. We have tipped Wu previously in the UAE at the Dubai Desert Classic. He has a superb record there, with form of 6-9-30-20 in his last four starts. The UAE links continue at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship. He has a 12th and 20th in his two Yas Links appearances. Both of these are Rolex Series events, featuring the best DP World Tour players and a fair few PGA Tour regulars returning to Europe. Those sort of results shouldn’t be sniffed at.

An excellent putter in his day, he is also accurate off the tee. This came to the fore at the Magical Kenyan Open in 2022. Ashun Wu won there for us at 50/1, on a golf course that rewards driving accuracy and putting.

His other victory came at the KLM Open. Bernadus is a faux links course, much like Abu Dhabi. Both are exposed, flat tracks and liable to gusts. Again, it is far from the worst comp course to what we could see this week. He has back to back top 20s in Mallorca and tops 10s in Portugal.

Ashun Wu was 100/1 when tipped in these pages for the 2023 Dubai Desert Classic and 4/1 for a Top 20 finish. He is available at double the price here for the win and the same top 20 odds. That is despite a far weaker field and less than half the competitors this week. Rory McIlroy was still in that field, as was Tommy Fleetwood, Shane Lowry, Patrick Reed, and Tyrrell Hatton. It seems overly generous to see him go out at 200/1 here, on a course that probably suits his game better.

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6 months ago 0 comment

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Everything You Need to Know for the Irish Open

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 10 months ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

The K Club plays as a majestic host for our Irish Open Picks

What a fabulous week it was once again for our picks at The European Masters. Alexander Bjork went extremely close to victory, an imperious Ludvig Aberg denying him the win with a stunning final 5 holes. Aberg continues to impress and is surely the most exciting prospect in European golf since Hovland and Rahm burst onto the scene. Masahiro Kawamura was put in these pages at a huge 200/1 and duly finished 8th. For those with 8 place payouts this was reduced slightly from 40/1 due a tie for 8th, but we cash full tickets on a Top 20 and Top 40. Finally, Renato Paratore at 150/1 and Ryo Hisatsune at 80/1 both finished in 13th. That was one shot off two more big place payouts and both were good for Top 20/40 options. Barring the winner, that is just about as good as it gets. With the European Ryder Cup team now set following Luke Donald’s captain’s picks, the attention turns to the magnificent K Club in County Kildare for our Irish Open Picks.

The K Club Course Analysis

The Irish Open changes venues this year, albeit to a familiar and iconic course. The Arnold Palmer North Course at The K Club perhaps most famously hosted the 2006 Ryder Cup. The Europeans romped to a 9 point victory that year. Hopefully, you already got on Europe at +210 per our recommendation in the WinDaily Sports Discord. They have since narrowed to just +125 with multiple players in excellent form.

The course also previously hosted one edition of the Irish Open in 2016 and was the previous host for the European Open between 1995-2007.

Perusing those leaderboards and data, there are a few key metrics that standout. The winner here has also led the field in Greens In Regulation for the last three tournaments. The course puts an emphasis on excellent approach play, particularly from 125-175 yards.

Finding fairways is also a key here. With numerous water hazards of the tee and trees right up to the fairway, keeping the ball in play is imperative. Despite it’s length on paper of 7,441 yards, there are two par 5s over 580 yards eating a lot of that yardage. Conversely, there are no short par 4s seeing an average length of an approachable 438 yards for the par 4s. Nobody has really come here and dominated it with the driver. Driving accuracy should be your guide.

Comp Courses for our Irish Open Picks

Immediately looking at the course, it always strikes me as very similar to the Brabazon Course at The Belfry. With the British Masters held in May, this also provides at least a smattering of similar recent form being held less than 3 months ago. Both rely heavily on excellent approach play and driving accuracy, with each dotted with water hazards significantly in play.

There are also some strong links to leaderboards at the European Masters host Crans-sur-Sierre. Collin Montgomerie, Lee Westwood, Mathias Gronberg all won at both. Michael Campbell won at The K Club and had a 2nd at Crans. Graeme Storm and Paul Lawrie had a runner-up at both. Bradley Dredge and Constantino Rocca both had a runner-up at K Club, then won and also had a 2nd place finish at Crans. Admittedly, some of these names were at the height of their powers in Europe at the time. But the correlation between some of the lower tiered names should not be discounted so readily. This also has the added benefit given the tournament was hosted at Crans just last week, allowing for some strong recent form.

Weather

As always, I should caution any conversation about weather when it comes with Ireland to the simple fact it is more volatile than other regions of the world. Weather does frequently develop over the Atlantic and move over the island, leading to the copious green pastures that Ireland is famous for.

It has also been a notoriously bad summer in the region. Heavy rain should see the rough plenty thick and juicy, with the fairways playing slow and soft. This should lead to a further increase in driving accuracy. Holding the fairway should be easier if found and the penalty for missing more severe.

Thursday AM looks to be the calmest conditions of that day, before winds gradually increase into the evening. Friday promises calm conditions all day with ideal scoring conditions. No strong advantage appears at time of writing for any particular tee-time.

Irish Open Picks

Golf Betting Tips and Suggested Staking

Ryan Fox – Your Irish Open Picks Favourite
2pts E/W +4000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Vincent Norrman
2pts E/W +4500 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Thorbjorn Olesen
1pt E/W +6600 (Unibet with 6 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +300 (TAB)

Eddie Pepperell – Your Irish Open Picks Best Value
1pt E/W +7000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +333 (TAB)

Jorge Campillo
1pt E/W +11000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +450 (TAB)

James Morrison
0.5pt +35000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +800 (Bet365)
And
3pt Top 40 +333 (TAB)

Soren Kjeldsen
0.5pt +40000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +1100 (TAB)
And
3pt Top 40 +400 (TAB)

[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/new/widget/betslip/1693976940561-adc9-685?id=8185cee7-1a51-4278-8fab-89b018f1be6a”]

Summary

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10 months ago 0 comment

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