DFS & Sports Betting Tools, Exclusive Content, and Expert Chat
GET STARTED TODAY
 
DFS & Sports Betting Tools, Exclusive Content, and Expert Chat
GET STARTED TODAY
 

The MLB Sweet Spot – Monday July 8th

Welcome to a Money-Making Monday here at Win Daily Sports. We had a solid day going 3-1 in our MLB bets posted in yesterday’s article. Missed out on a sweep because the White Sox blew a 3-run lead. But that’s what I get for betting on the Sox. We move to Monday where we have a solid slate of games to choose from. We’ll break down the night slate (640pm) for DFS as that has the most games with 5. As for betting, the card is tough today with many teams turning to young arms. But we do see an edge in a few games.

Both Jared and I will be posting articles during the week and have a central focus on both MLB betting and DFS. Today is my turn and I will provide you a centralized focus on betting, props and DFS plays.

GAME BETS & PLAYER PROPS

WASHINGTON NATIONALS -120 vs ST LOUIS CARDINALS

There was a time not long ago when we coveted betting the Cardinals against LHP’s. But the decline of Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt have quickly shifted that narrative to fading St Louis against lefties. That’s because they are ranked 29th in batting average (0.222), 29th in ISO, 29th in wRC+ and 29th in ISO against southpaws. And although they’ve had success against lefties in this series (scoring 5 ER against Gore and 4 ERs against Herz), I think they’ll struggle today against Mitchell Parker. That’s because Parker has a different arsenal than his teammates which includes a split finger that batters are hitting just 0.214 against and whiffing at a 36% rate.

And the Cards are staring Miles Mikolas who owns an ERA north of 5.00. He’s also not very effective against this Nats lineup as they have hit a combined 0.292 in 41 career at-bats against the Cards SP. Overall, the Cards are also worse in day games posting an 18-22 record when it’s light outside. So factor that in with their struggles against LHP’s and Mikolas’s continued subpar performance and I like the Nats to take the final game in this 4-game set today.

MINNESOTA TWINS -190 at CHICAGO WHITE SOX

The Minnesota Twins like to hit homers as they’re 108 team total is 6th best in baseball. They showed that power over the weekend with five homeruns in their series against Houston. The good news for them is they get to face SP Chris Flexen tonight who likes to serve up dingers, on a silver platter. The White Sox pitcher has allowed 15 long balls this year, And that’s fresh off a season where he allowed 14 in just 12 starts.

Also factor in the fact that Minnesota beats up on the White Sox. They are 7-0 this year against their division rivals outscoring Chicago by a tally of 44-23. In fact, the Twins have scored at least 5 runs in all of their games against Chicago except one. If I’m going to pay a premium tonight, which most games have high spreads, then this one best fits the price as I have the Twins as a -300 favorite on my model.

DOG OF THE DAY: N/A

Underdog to Save the Day!

PLAYER PROPS

TBD

TBD

PLUS PROP OF THE DAY – TBD

We’ll often add a home run prop or something valued over +200 in this spot. For these bets, plan anywhere from 0.1 to 0.5 units.

DFS – 6:40 PM SLATE

We’re looking at the 6:40pm slate today as that has the largest pool of games with 5.

Top Pitchers to Target:

CHRIS SALE ($10,500 DK):

On a short slate, paying up for premium pitching is a solid strategy. And the only premium play on this card is Chris Sale. He’s on an absolute heater for the past 2 months, allowing 2 ER’s or less in 11 of his past 12 starts. He’s also tied for the league lead in wins with 11 and has the 8th best ERA in baseball at 2.71. He will likely have ownership north of 70% tonight but I’m good with following the herd here and trying to get SP #2 right as well as my bats.

ANDREW ABBOTT ($8200 DK):

Abbott has pitched well for the Reds this year as shown by his 3.28 ERA and 8 wins, which leads the Cincy staff (Nick Lodolo’s 2.96 ERA doesn’t qualify). More importantly, he pitches well at night as he has a 7-2 record with a 3.16 ERA. But what makes him most desirable for DFS tonight is the fact that he gets the Rockies at home. Colorado has the 27th best batting average away from home at 0.223. And they are ranked 29th in OPS, 25th is ISO, 29th in wOBA and 29th in wRC+ when batting outside of Coors Field.

OTHER SP’S IN MY PLAYER POOL: GAVIN WILLIAMS ($8500 DK),

Value Pitchers to Target:

JON GRAY ($7000 DK)

The Rangers SP has struggled of late, having two games over the past 4 weeks where he allowed 8 ER’s or more. But he gets a break from the heavy hitter like Baltimore and San Diego when he faces the Angels tonight in LA. That’s because the Halos are batting just 0.192 (29th) with 1 home run in the month of July. And their record is a lowly 1-5 to start this month, which includes 3 games where they were shutout. Gray also has success against this Angels lineup as they hit a collective 0.207 off the Rangers SP (in 58 career at-bats).

HONORABLE MENTION: CHRIS PADDACK ($7500 DK)

Top Stacks to Target:

GUARDIANS:

The Guardians have been a favorite stack of ours for much of this year. It’s due to the balanced lineup where we can pay-up but also find some value options. That won’t stop today as they face Detroit SP Keider Montero and his 6.60 ERA. I’ll look to start my stack with Steven Kwan and Jose Ramirez. But I’ll also go after affordable options like Andres Gimenez, Daniel Schneemann, Jhonkensy Noel, and Angel Martinez. And you can’t go wrong with All-Star David Fry or Josh Naylor if you want to mix and match top end salaried players.

BRAVES:

The Braves hit three homers on Sunday to complete a series win against the Phillies. In fact, they scored 5 runs or more in all three games of their series with Philadelphia. So the bats are coming alive and tonight they take that show to Arizona where the ball tends to jump. And they’re facing a pitcher making his MLB debut in Yilber Diaz. They faced a similar pitcher yesterday in Michael Mercado and chased him by the 3rd inning. I’ll start with Marcell Ozuna, Ozzie Albies and Matt Olson but also look at Jared Kelenic, Austin Riley and Sean Murphy to round out the stack.

Other Stacks to Consider: RANGERS, TWINS

Now that you finished reading the MLB Sweet Spot article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Channel which keeps you in tune with all of our shows.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the Win Daily Sports family.

OFFERS
OFFERS

Subscribe to our newsletter

The best bets and resources to make you more profitable

    Our Company

    At WIN DAILY®, our motto is to “change your game and change your life.” We want to help you win that bet, parlay, and big DFS tournament and have some fun while you do. Our goal is to help you turn your love of sports into a profit center while playing responsibly and enjoying your time with a like-minded community.

    ©2024 WIN DAILY®. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

    This site is 100% for entertainment purposes only and does not involve real money betting. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800 GAMBLER. This service is intended for adult users only.
    -
    00:00
    00:00
    Update Required Flash plugin
    -
    00:00
    00:00