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The MLB Sweet Spot – Sunday July 7th

It’s a Sunday Funday here at Win Daily Sports. We are creeping closer to the MLB All Star game as the AL and NL lineups have been announced. There were several surprises, but each team is filled with deserving stars. As for the home run derby, only two names have announced their intent to participate and that is Gunnar Henderson and Alec Bohm. We’re excited to see who else rounds out the roster and home run derby as we’ll be breaking down both in the upcoming weeks. But as long as they’re still playing baseball and not on break, we’re still betting so take a look at today’s DFS and betting picks below.

Both Jared and I will be posting articles during the week and have a central focus on both MLB betting and DFS. Today is my turn and I will provide you a centralized focus on betting, props and DFS plays.

GAME BETS & PLAYER PROPS

DETROIT TIGERS -135 at CINCINNATI REDS

The Tigers have finally found their winning ways again as they’ve taken the first two in their series against Cincinnati. Detroit had won just one series in their last eight, and that was against a terrible Chicago White Sox team. And what’s helped them in this series has been the bats, as they have hit 5 homers in this series. That’s big news as Detroit had just 83 home runs coming into this series (25th in MLB).

And the reason for highlighting the power surge is they get to face Reds SP Graham Ashcraft today. Ashcraft has allowed 11 homers in just 72.2 innings pitched. He also allows a 0.278 batting average which is 3rd highest on the slate today. So, I expect Detroit to continue their strong hitting in Cincy today which should be plenty for Tarik Skubal who has the 3rd best ERA in baseball. The Reds are batting just 0.181 in July and have struggled to put together quality at-bats as they’ve also struck out the 3rd most this month.

It’s Detroit for the sweep today in Cincy as the pitching matchup is wide and the Tigers bats have shown more promise than Cincy over the past week.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS -160 at COLORADO ROCKIES

The Rockies have taken the first two games in their series with the Royals. And it’s been due to solid pitching which is a surprise coming from a team that has allowed the most runs in baseball at 512.

DOG OF THE DAY: CHICAGO WHITE SOX +120 at MIAMI MARLINS

Underdog to Save the Day!

The Marlins are handing the ball to Edward Cabrera who is making his first start since May 7th after landing on the 60 day IL with a shoulder injury. The Marlins had hoped to give Cabrera one more rehab start but they felt comfortable with what they saw and called him up to start today’s game. Cabrera threw no more than 4 innings and 67 pitches in his three rehab starts showing that he will be on some type of pitch count today.

The issue with Cabrera has always been control. In 2024, he’s walked 14 batters in 21.1 innings pitched. While Chicago has a low walk rate, they will be surely taking pitches today. Especially considering Cabrera’s wildness and it being his first start in two months. My model shows this game as more of a pick ’em as the White Sox have been playing better of late (12th in batting and 13th in runs in July) while the Marlins continue to rank near the bottom of baseball in all offensive categories.

PLAYER PROPS

GRAYSON RODRIGUEZ over 6.5 Ks (-130 BET365)

TBD

TBD

PLUS PROP OF THE DAY – TBD

We’ll often add a home run prop or something valued over +200 in this spot. For these bets, plan anywhere from 0.1 to 0.5 units.

DFS – 1:35PM SLATE

We’re looking at the 1:35pm slate today as that has the largest pool of games with 9.

Top Pitchers to Target:

TARIK SKUBAL ($10,500 DK):

Skubal is still the leader in the clubhouse for AL CY Young with a 9-3 record and 2.45 ERA. Obviously, Seth Lugo would have something to say about that but the Tigers LHP is also top 10 in K’s and WHIP which the Royals pitcher cannot claim. So today is another chance for Skubal to put some shine on an otherwise tough season for the Tigers. Coming into their series with Cincy, the Tigers were just 8-18 in the last month and had lost 7 of 8 series. But so far against the Reds, they’ve taken the first two games and roll into today looking for a sweep with their best pitcher. That’s because Cincy is batting just 0.184 and striking out at a 30.4% clip in the month of July. They also struggle against Skubal’s out pitches, the changeup (20th in wRC) and slider (25th in wRC). This should be music to Skubal’s ears as looks to keep the Reds high K rate intact and put up another impressive outing to add to his resume.

NATHAN EOVALDI ($9000 DK):

This is where the pitching options get tough today. But Eovaldi looks to be one of the safer options below Skubal that also has a high ceiling. The safe part is in his opponent as the Rays rank 21st in batting average, 21st in wOBA, and 27th in ISO. The ceiling lies with Eovaldi’s recent performance (31.2 DK pts in last outing) and his earlier outing versus TBR (32.8 DK points in April). And then there’s the historical numbers the Rays have against Eovaldi. In 137 plate appearances they are batting just 0.197 with only one homerun. Add to that they own a 27% K rate against the Rangers SP. So with all that said, Eovaldi is my favorite arm on the slate today and the one I’ll roster the most (~40-50% range).

OTHER SP’S IN MY PLAYER POOL: SEAN MANAEA ($8200), DJ HERZ ($7800 DK), EDWARD CABRERA ($7700 DK)

Value Pitchers to Target:

JONATHAN CANNON ($6700 DK)

The White Sox SP has the best matchup on the slate as the Marlins rank 30th in ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. And it’s been more of the same in the month of July as they’re batting just 0.220 (25th) with 16 runs scored (28th). And Cannon has pitched well at times, with five of his eight starts going with 3 ER’s or less. His advanced metrics show some positive regression as his FIP, xFIP and SIERA are all at least 0.2 runs lower than his 4.62 ERA.

HONORABLE MENTION: MICHAEL MERCADO ($7500 DK), ZACK LITTELL ($6900 DK)

Top Stacks to Target:

METS:

New York’s bats have cooled of late. But they got to witness an offensive explosion by the Pirates on Friday which stimulated their bats yesterday as they tallied 11 hits and 5 runs. I look for that to continue today against Pittsburgh and their SP Luis Ortiz. That’s because Ortiz’s 3.27 ERA is met with a 4.41 SIERA. He’s been very fortunate in allowing just 4.5% of his flyballs to turn into homers. Based on his 41% flyball rate, the homeruns will come soon and I’m betting on the Mets to start today. Over the past 10 games, several Mets batters have multiple homers which include Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso and Mark Vientos. I’ll look at those bats as well as Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil and JD Martinez.

GUARDIANS:

A quick look at advanced stats for SP’s brings us one number that sticks out like a sore thumb. That is Hayden Birdsong’s 2.03 difference between ERA and FIP (4.66 ERA to 6.69 FIP). So I’m going to take a shot on a Guardians lineup that can put up runs in a hurry (3rd in AL in runs scored, 6th in ISO, 9th in wRC+). I’ll look to get batters like Jose Ramirez, Andres Gimenez, Steven Kwan, and David Fry in my lineups. I’ll also look at cheap options like Jhonkensy Noel and Angel Martinez as long as their in the starting lineup today.

Other Stacks to Consider: PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES, DETROIT TIGERS, MINNESOTA TWINS

Now that you finished reading the MLB Sweet Spot article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Channel which keeps you in tune with all of our shows.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the Win Daily Sports family.

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