It was a shocking first week as the Champion’s League returned but what will MatchWeek Two have in store? Unlike last week, we do not have many large favorites on the slate.
The largest money line favorite is Porto at -255 followed by a very shaky-looking Liverpool side at -195.
Without further adieu, we will dig into the odds, cover the top DFS plays position-by-position and provide betting analysis.
Atletico Madrid (+145) at Bayer Leverkusen (+195)
Barcelona (+285) at Bayern Munich (-130)
Club Brugge (+700) at FC Porto (-255)
Ajax (+450) at Liverpool (-195)
Eintracht Frankfurt (+275) at Marseille (+100)
Napoli (-120) at Rangers (+320)
Mohammed Salah – Liverpool – $9,000 – We also have the option of Robert Lewandowski in a “revenge” match with his former team Bayern Munich. However, given his $11,900 price tag, I think it is a lot to pay for his role in a match where I doubt he will be scoring as many goals as last week when Barcelona was a -1400 money line favorite. Mohammed Salah much like Liverpool has been off to an awful start this season. Their defense is truly as atrocious as it has looked. However, there should be some offensive regression coming here. I expect this to be a relatively open game and Salah has been contributing enough chances and shots that he is due to find a net a couple of times.
Robert Lewandowski – Barcelona – $21 – With the prices flipped on FanDuel and Mohammed Salah more expensive than Lewandowski, think this is where we play him. It is important to note that Barcelona are underdogs here. However, the Bayern defense has been far from perfect. Furthermore, if there was ever anyone who knew how to exploit Bayerns defense, I’d put money on this man, who spent the better part of the last decade practicing with them.
DraftKings – Evanilson/Toni Martinez -Porto – $4,700/$4,100 “low-end”, Raphinha – Barcelona- $7,600 “mid-range”, Darwin Nunez – Liverpool – $8,800 “high-end”
FanDuel – Sadio Mane – Bayern Munich – $18 “low-end”, Darwin Nunez – Liverpool – $21 “mid-range”, Mohammed Salah – Liverpool – $22 “high-end”
Otavio “Questionable”/Matius Uribe – Porto – $5,200/$3,700 – Porto as mentioned at the very top of the article is the largest favorite on the slate. That said, the forwards are certainly cheap but neither is awe-inspiring. I still think they make for fine punts on this slate, as noted by their inclusion under “low-end” above. However, if healthy Otavio has the majority role on set pieces and serves as the preferred penalty taker. With a very affordable $5,200 price tag, Otavio may be the best Porto play on DraftKings if in. That said, he was badly hurt on Wednesday so may be out although has not been ruled out for the match as of the time of writing. Should he sit, Matius Uribe will likely assume his role. If that is the case we also pocket an extra $1,500 savings but either way both are underpriced.
Joshua Kimmich – Bayern Munich – $16 – This is a lot more affordable than Kimmich’s $10,000 DraftKings price. Given his role as Bayern’s primary set-piece taker along with FanDuel price, Kimmich is a cash game lock and should be very popular in all FanDuel formats.
DraftKings – Raphinha – Barcelona – $7,600 “low-end”, Piotr Zielinski – Napoli – $9,800 “mid-range”, Joshua Kimmich – Bayern Munich – $10,000 “high-end”.
FanDuel – Mateus Uribe – Porto – $15 “low-end”, Joshua Kimmich – Bayern Munich – $16 “mid-range”, Pietr Zielinski – Napoli- $20 “high-end”
Trent Alexander-Arnold – Liverpool – $6,500 – Often seen at a much higher cost on EPL slates, Liverpool’s primary set piece taker seems like a core piece on this slate. Despite Liverpool getting destroyed in MatchWeek One, TAA still managed 18.5 DraftKings points solely off of peripheral stats.
Hector Bellerin/Alejandro Balde – Barcelona – $3,800/$2,800 “low-end”, Alphonso Davies- Bayern Munich – $5,300 “mid-range”, Kostas Tsimakas – Liverpool – $6,200 “high-end”
Trent Alexander-Arnold – Liverpool – $15 – I hate to spend up on defense on FanDuel. However, it makes more sense on this slate than on most. Stars and Scrubs today seems like a losing strategy with so many question marks surrounding some of the spend ups.
Daley Blind – Ajax – $9, Denis Odoi – Club Brugge – $8
Alex Meret – Napoli – $5,500/$12 – Off to a strong start this season and playing behind a much-improved defense.
Bet – Club Brugge or Draw – Double Chance (+200/+180) Bet Rivers/DraftKings – 0.5 Units – The +1.5 is safer but at -160 on DraftKings, it lacks juice. If choosing between the two I think you pop a half unit on the double chance “maybe match it with the +1.5”. A -235 for Porto here just seems a little fishy particularly if down Otavio.
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Welcome to the 16th edition of Formula 1 Race Week: Italian Grand Prix, September 2022.
Imola, the Temple of Speed, in northern Bologna, Italy plays host to this week’s race. Ferrari wants this win as they celebrate 75 years in the sport; in front of their faithful Tifosi fans. With multiple divers on the grid facing penalties, the starting grid is as good as Ferrari could hope for.
With grid penalties, driver changes, and more randomness let me help break down the grid starting with…
Max Verstappen, Red Bull, $18,300
Max starts P7 after penalties have been assessed. He should make short work of all the runners in front of him not named Charles Leclerc.
Charles Leclerc, Ferrari, $16,500
With the crowd and Ferrari tradition behind him, Charles is leading the pack when the lights go out on Sunday. There are talks that the Ferrari engine is being turned up for maximum power. As a result, reliability might be an issue. Therefore I would caution Charles backers to tread lightly.
I am having a hard time finding other Captain options as the grid is really screwy. We have 2 Williams in the top 10, don’t tell me this grid is not weird.
Lando Norris, McLaren $7800
Lando would be the next driver to be truly a captain option. However, I do not have the confidence in McLaren to put him there. Due to this fact, I think McLaren has the potential for being the best value for the constructor. Lando has the best opportunity to score the 3rd or 4th most maximum DraftKings points.
George Russell, Mercedes, $9800
George starts right behind Charles in P2. I would have George over Lando if the Mercedes hasn’t been one of the slowest cars all weekend. George was slower than teammate Lewis Hamilton but was promoted four grid spots due to penalties. Therefore, I think the best George Russell’s Mercedes can hope for is a P3 finish.
Pierre Gasly, Alphatauri, $6200
Pierre is an interesting case study this weekend. I think he is a gamble in the truest sense of the word. The Alphatauri (including Yuki’s) has been a top 3 car in speed this weekend. A couple of factors are working against Pierre, the McLarens in front of him, and the drivers behind him, mainly Max. If Pierre can overtake Danny Ricciardo, I can see Pierre finishing as high as p4. With the cars behind him, he could finish on the cusp or just outside the points. Due to his volatility, I will have a sprinkle of Pierre in my DK lineups.
Fernando Alonso, Alpine, $7200
Alonso was pushed up to start in p6. If the Alpine knows one thing to do is to score points. Consequently, I will have some Fernando Alonso in my lineups.
Sergio Perez, Carlos Sainz, Esteban Ocon, and Lewis Hamilton all incurred grid penalties. The only one that was not in Q3 was Esteban Ocon. The other 3 drivers are starting in grid positions that can put them in a position to overtake cars. Especially Carlos Sainz and Sergio Perez. As a result, I don’t see these 4 drivers beating their respective teammates; however, I can see them overtaking positions and scoring top 10 finishing points.
Zhou Guanyu $3800 Alfa Romeo
Alfa was Alpha in Free practice 2. The Ferrari-powered machine was at the top of the speed charts. If Zhou can finish in the points, he would be amazing value.
Nick de Vries $3400. Nick replaces Alex Albon this weekend who has appendicitis. Nick almost made it into Q3 but made a mistake that cost him his lap. Nick finds himself in a very interesting position this weekend. He’s piloting a Williams that has shown top straight line speed all weekend and starts ahead of his teammate. In short, I will have my shares of de Vries in DK.
Penalties really shook this grid up. I will be leaning more on the teams that have shown outright speed as overtaking can be difficult around Monza. I think the speedy teams will be able to overtake on track or undercut their competitors and get track position in the pits.
If you have questions please feel free to hit me up in discord @tcuz86, or on Twitter @tcuz86. Have fun and thanks for reading Formula 1: Race Week Italian Grand Prix, September 2022.
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