Nicholas Latifi $3000 continues his run as Formula 1’s “how the hell does he have a drive?!” award. Thankfully the championship has already been settled so he can’t crash and ruin someone’s shot at that award. But it’s Nicholas Latifi and I don’t put anything past him. As long as Nic finishes, he is useful, so if has your last guy in, don’t stress over it. In fact, the Williams drivers can’t hurt you since they start so low anyway all they can do is not score points, and that’s not too bad.
Alex Albon $4000 starting P19 is just like his teammate, he can’t really hurt your lineups. It takes losing 3 grid spots to generate negative DraftKings points, starting P19 he can’t do that. Even if he DNF Alex will score 0 DKFP. Having returned a value of 162% at his price point, Albon is the most valuable driver below $4000.
What a difference a week makes. Last week all the highs of the world, sprint wins, pole positions, and good vibes. This weekend: pain. Mick Schumacher $3600 informed us via IG he won’t be with the team next year which I am personally torn over. Mick has so much talent, but the amount of times he has crashed and caused expensive repairs is impossible to overlook. I hope we see him on the grid in the future.
For his final appearance for Gene Haas’ F1 team, Mick finds himself starting P12. The Haas has always shown ability over one quick lap, it’s the race pace that tends to let them down. Over the last 4 races, Mick has been one of the 5 worst drivers to return fantasy value, with 3.5 DKFP. The last guy in is definitely not a priority play.
Mick’s teammate Kevin Magnussen $4800 has been equally as disappointing this weekend. Hanging out in the cellar of the bottom 5, Kevin’s price tag is hard to use, even with his recent form of 6 DKFP. I think you can get better value elsewhere.
This is where things start to get interesting this weekend. The sister Red Bull has performed well here at the Yas Marina in the past 4 races, with 3 top-10 finishes. Yuki finished just off the podium in P4 having started in P8 last year, and Pierre has gone from P10 to P8 and P12 to P5. Very encouraging for Alpha Tauri.
However, even with the team’s strong historical trends here, Pierre Gasly $5000 has not shown much over this weekend. He has been a bottom 5 driver on pace in FP2, 3, and qualifying. With his starting position of P17, he’s overvalued at $5000. In his last 4 races, he has returned 70% value, 2nd worst of all 20 drivers.
Yuki Tsunoda $3400 finds himself in P11. A very spicy proposition. Yuki has been in the 3rd tier (P15-P10) of drivers this weekend (20 drivers divided by 5 for 4 tiers) and was awarded an extra grid start for Danny Ric being penalized for his torpedoing of K-Mag and my lineups last weekend, I’m not salty, I promise. At his price point, having returned 139.71% of value scoring 4.75 DKFP over his last 4, I’ll have some Yuki in my lineups.
The Alfa has not shown much positive or negative here in Abu Dhabi. A very neutral playing field for Italy’s favorite second son. Zhou Guanyu $3200 has won here in the F2 series, the equivalent of the Xfinity series for NASCAR. Over this weekend Zhou has been in the 3rd and 4th tier of drivers, having qualified P15. Scoring 3.75 DKFP in his last 4, returning the value of 117.91%, he’s not a priority but fine as a DraftKings play.
Valtteri Bottas $5600 has had a disappointing last 4 races. At his $5600 price point, he has only scored 3.75 DKFP, returning a value of 66.96% over his last 4. The absolute worst value of all drivers. He has gone from bringing the Williams from the ashes of mediocrity to a top team’s rear gunner, to a bottom-dwelling team driver. Starting in P18 he’s just like the Williams drivers with a starting grid position so low, he can’t hurt you, but that’s an extreme premium at $5600.
Just like the Alfa Romeo, Yas Marina is a neutral circuit for Aston Martin. That being said, they tend to perform better than the Alfa here in Abu Dhabi. This weekend hasn’t bucked that trend. Flirting with the bottom fringes of the 2nd tier and the top of the 4th tier, I would put The Astons firmly in the 3rd tier.
Lance Stroll $4200 starts just ahead of the 3rd tier ranking, starting in P14. There’s nothing in Lance’s history here that suggests Lance is over or under-qualified. In his last 4 races at the circuit, he has gained positions from P20 to P13, dropped positions from P13 to DNF, P8 to P10, and maintained positions P13 to P13. A very meh kind of play. having scored just 3.75 DKFP over his last 4, Stroll has only returned a value of 77.38%. Nothing makes stroll a priority play this weekend.
Sebastian Vettel $6200 leaves the F1 grid after this race as he is set to retire after the checkered flag drops this Sunday. The 4-time world champ, takes his 122 podiums with him as this is his 300th race. For this weekend, Seb starts in P9, just ahead of the team’s 3rd-tier placing. That reads like Seb is driving hard this weekend. Historically Seb has gone from P3 to P2, P5 to P5, P13 to P14, and P15 to P11, definitely in play. Scoring 9.25 DKFP over his last 4, returning a value of 149.19% I will have exposure to Seb and will play him with confidence in my DK lines. Danke Seb, you will be missed.
Alpine is a tier 2 car this weekend. Firmly in the top 10, Alpine has historically finished where they have started here. Fernando Alonso’s $7000 has had an interesting last 4 races. And by interesting, I mean very disappointing. He has only scored 6 DKFP over his last 4 and returned a value of 85.71%, nothing to be excited about. Starting P10 you really need him to beat his teammate and gain 3 spots to pay off the price tag, a proposition that’s hard to trust.
Esteban Ocon $6600 looks like the better value between the 2. Once again the history of the Alpine suggests Ocon should finish in the top 10, and if he doesn’t drop places or get beat by his teammate, he should continue to return his last 4 race value of 181.12% scoring 12 DKFP over his last 4.
McLaren really solidifies itself as the best of the rest. Historically they have finished just well within the 2nd tier of cars here, with finishes at P8, P5, P7, P4, P11, P7, and P12. Not that special. But for our purposes, playable.
Lando loves finishing P7, and because of that he has only scored 6 DKFP over his last 4. He is overpriced at $7600. He starts this race in, of course, P7.
His teammate Daniel, the torpedo, Ricciardo won’t be a starting driver next year. He should be confirmed as the reserve Red Bull driver so we will still see Danny Ric around the paddock. Danny has had 2 really good races out of his last 4 scoring double-digit DraftKings points, which has him returning a value of 181.82% not terrible for 8 DKFP over his last 4. Having been penalized for a doggy move last weekend, I can see Danny Ric performing well from P13 gaining at least spots, maybe even a 3rd. Not a priority by any means, but good for a lineup or two as a contrarian play.
Ferrari still has something to play for as Charles Leclerc has a shot at 2nd in the driver’s championship and the team is just 19 points ahead of the surging Mercedes for the 2nd place constructor championship. What a far cry from the Ferrari glory days. Very disappointing as the team started off so well this year. Historically the Scuderia has performed like a tier 2 team in Abu Dhabi. With only 1 podium over the last 4 appearances.
That one podium finish was accomplished by Carlos Sainz Jr $8800 after starting from P5 to finish P3. Outside of that, Carlos has not done much here. Of the top 6 drivers, he has been the least valuable at 142.05% 12dkp over the last 4. Not a top priority by any means, but he has been a 2nd tier car all weekend and qualified P4, making him slightly overvalued.
Carlos’s teammate, Charles LeClerc $10,600 starts from P3 and has been a Tier1/2 car all weekend. As he is fighting for the 2nd place drivers championship, and also a slight middle finger to his team, Charles is very much in play this weekend. Here in Abu Dhabi Charles has not faired well driving for Ferrari, he has lost places in both races he has had here with the Scuderia. Returning a value of 158.02% with 16.75 DKFP over his last 4, it’s very much in Charles’ wheelhouse to perform well here.
Mercedes scored its first 1,2 last weekend after having started this season on the backfoot compared to their competition. This bodes well for the Silver Arrows next year. As for Abu Dhabi, the Mercs have been a Tier 1 team all weekend. Historically the Merc finds itself on the podium here in Abu Dhabi, a trend I can see continuing.
George Russell $10,000 starts in P6 meaning he slightly underqualified. This is his first year with a good team here so his historical trends are kind of meaningless. Over his last 4 races though, he has scored 19.25 DKFP and returned a value of 192.50% the second most valuable driver over his last 4 races. George is a solid play this weekend.
Lewis Hamilton $11,200 starts in P5, his car has not been outside the top tier all weekend. Historically Lewis has never finished off the podium here in Abu Dhabi with 2 wins, a 2nd, and a 3rd in his last 4 races. I like Lewis’ chances here. 191.96% puts Lewis just behind his teammate in terms of value returned over his last 4 and he has scored 21.5 DKFP over the span. Definitely have some Lewis.
The class of the 2022 season finishes strong as the drivers to beat this weekend. Both Max Verstappen $13,600 and Sergio Perez $9400 have shown out this weekend. They will be tough to dethrone. Red Bull has had a mixed bag of results here, however, as Max does well, but Sergio has not.
Sergio Perez $9400 has returned a value of 148.94% and scored just 14dkp over his last 4. At his price point, we really need him to win to outperform his teammate in terms of being valuable for our fantasy lineups. Hard to say if he can do it. If you are going to play Sergio, having him in the captain’s spot makes a ton of sense.
My analysis of Max is as follows: play him. The guy is the best driver on the grid, in the best car. The most valuable driver over the last 4, the highest-scoring driver over that time frame. He’s tough to fit, but there’s enough value to make it work. Max, like Lewis, has not finished off the podium here.
Find a way to Fit Max in. Yuki, Zhou, Albon, and Latifi make for good values. The Mercs have been in form over the last 4 races. Sergio and Carlos are fighting for P2 in the driver’s world championship, and Mercedes and Ferrari are fighting for 2nd place in the constructor’s championship.
Your time is your most valuable asset and I thank you for spending some of it on reading this article. If you have questions feel free to get at me @tcuz86 in Discord.
Best of luck and see you next season,
Theodore
Welcome to the Week 10 edition of The Inside Look for the 2022 NFL season. This will be a data driven article and will go under the hood to see if the box scores tell the whole story about what transpired during the weekend. My goal here will be to either calm your nerves about a player that may have underperformed or cause you to rethink some of the spots you may have taken.
Week 10 was filled with drama and great games. What we witnessed in Buffalo between the Bills and Vikings may go down as the game of the year. The comeback by Aaron Rodgers and the Packers vs. Dallas may be the comeback of the year. And finally, the Eagles have lost so we no longer have a perfect team.
Let’s dig in to the data!
Before we dig in to individual player performances I wanted to take a moment to talk about why we focus so heavily on Targets. Targets equal opportunities and in fantasy opportunity more often than creates production. The more targets that a player gets the better chance there is that the player will return on value.
If you still haven’t watched a replay of the ‘catch’ by Justin Jefferson, I highly recommend you take a few moments out of your day to go see it. You won’t regret it! Jefferson was tied for the lead league in targets this weekend with 16. He was able to catch 10 of them for 193 yards and one touchdown. The star receiver for the Vikings just continues to get better.
The 16 targets were the most he’s had this season as were the 193 receiving yards. He’s now gone over the 100-yard mark in 6 of his 9 games this season. He’ll get a matchup with the Dallas Cowboys in Week 11.
The other receiver to have 16 targets this week was on the other side of this game. Stefon Diggs corralled 12 of the 16 targets for 128 receiving yards. The 12 catches were the most he’s had since Week 2 against the Titans. Like Jefferson, Diggs has now surpassed the 100-yard mark in 6 of the 9 games he’s played this season. Next week he’ll look to keep up the momentum with a matchup vs. the Cleveland Browns.
Was this the coming-out party for Ceedee Lamb? Lamb had a career-high 15 targets on Sunday and boy did he make the most of them. Lamb caught 11 of the 15 passes thrown his way and went for 150-yards and 2 touchdowns. This was just the fifth 100-yard game for the third-year receiver and the first since Week 8 in 2021. He’ll look to build off of this monster game in Week 11 vs. a Vikings team that is absolutely rolling right now.
Austin Ekeler was the only running back even to sniff double-digit targets this weekend. As has been the case in most weeks, Ekeler led the way with 12 targets this weekend. He’s now had double-digit targets in 3 of his last 4 games. While the targets were high, he failed to really do any meaningful damage with them as he caught 7 of them for just 39 yards. Next week will be a tough matchup for the Chargers as they’ll play host to Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.
Justin Jefferson wasn’t the only Vikings player to get targeted a whole bunch. T.J. Hockenson led all tight ends this week with 10 targets. Since joining the Vikings, he’s now been targeted a total of 19 times. This week, he finished with an ok stat line of 7 catches and 45 yards. Hock has now gone 5 consecutive games without finding the endzone, making him somewhat of a fantasy disappointment.
Unlike the majority of recent weeks, more Dolphins players played a role in the passing the game this weekend. While Hill was still the most heavily targeted Dolphins player, he was only targeted 6 times. Running backs played a big part this weekend as nearly 40% of Tua’s passes this week went to the likes of Alec Ingold, Jeff Wilson, and Raheem Mostert.
Justin Fields doesn’t throw often, but when he does, Cole Kmet is licking his chops. Kmet was Fields most often used pass catcher this weekend and he did not disappoint. His 7 targets led the Bears, as did his 2 receiving touchdowns and his 74 yards. Kmet and Fields are just warming up and it’s going to be fun to continue to watch this tandem get more comfortable with each other.
Kyler Murray essentially threw only to his receivers this weekend, and by receivers, I mean Rondale Moore and DeAndre Hopkins. Moore and Hopkins accounted for 27 of Murray’s 35 passes this weekend. That’s a pretty centralized strategy if you ask me!
For just the second time this season, Saquon Barkley had more than 30 carries. He set a season-high with 35 carries this weekend, 4 more than his previous best of 31. He also had his second-most rushing yards this season with 152 yards. The hot New York Giants will only go as far as Barkley will take them, and he’s trying his hardest to take them to the top!
Despite Chuba Hubbard returning from injury this week, D’Onta Foreman continued to be the main guy in Carolina as he carried the ball a season-high 31 times on Sunday. He also rushed for a season-high 130 yards and found the endzone once. Foreman owners had to be relieved after the absolute dud he put up in Week 9.
The ‘Playbook’ as I like to call it shows a breakdown of the play splits that teams used this past weekend.
As I mentioned above, D’Onta Foreman ran a ton this weekend. This led the Panthers to go with a predominantly run-based offense this weekend as they ran close to 75% run plays vs. just 25% for passes. I guess they have little faith in PJ Walker and his arm.
On the other side of the playbook, we have the Jacksonville Jaguars. While the masses gravitated to Travis Etienne this weekend, he was essentially irrelevant as he only ran the ball 11 times for 45 yards. 70% of the plays the Jaguars ran this weekend were passes as Trevor Lawrence threw the ball 40 times this weekend.
Make sure to check out all of our NFL articles here.
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It’s Monday, which means it’s time for the Man Advantage. Tonight brings us a main slate that starts at 8:30pm Eastern, but there is also a game between the Islanders and Senators at 5:30pm Eastern that is not included on either the DraftKings or FanDuel main slate. That brings us to a small, three game slate that looks tricky at first glance. Remember, three games means we are going to take some risks and play a very GPP approach. Good luck!
Alexandar Georgiev – Colorado Avalanche: The Avalanche host the Blues tonight, and Georgiev should be in line for the win. The Blues have been struggling of late, scoring just 1.8 goals per game over their last five, and Georgiev’s numbers have been very solid. The shot volume may not be there, but he should be a decent ‘safe’-ish play tonight.
Jonathan Quick – Los Angeles Kings: This is a very interesting play that carries some risk. Quick’s numbers have been great recently, sporting a 1.58 GAA over his last five. However, some of that is due to the play in front of him. As a team, over their last five, the Kings are allowing just 18.76 scoring chances per 60 and 6.34 high danger chances against per 60. Keep in mind that there is a chance that Quick regresses, so hedge this play in a line or two with some Flames.
High Risk Goalie Pick – Arvid Soderblom Petr Mrazek- Chicago Blackhawks: The Hawks host the Hurricanes tonight, and this is a very intriguing risky play in net. The Canes are currently shooting about 25 times per game over their last five (during 5v5 play), and the Hawks have been giving up 30 shots against per game in that same time frame. There will be a ton of shot volume headed Soderblom’s way, and he has been very solid. He will let in a couple, maybe even more, but he should see the DraftKings save bonus. Anything more than that, like a sneaky win, would probably make him the top play if he performs well. UPDATE – Mrazek gets the nod in net. He is a lot more risky than Soderblom would have been, but is worth a shot, as all of the same factors are in play.
Others to Consider: Jacob Markstrom (CGY), Antti Raanta (CAR)
These NHL DFS lines are considered top plays for the night and can be considered the focal point of your builds. They will be listed by position in the following order: Center/Winger/Winger/Correlating Defenseman (if applicable).
Colorado Avalanche Power Play – Evan Rodrigues/Nathan MacKinnon/Artturi Lehkonen/Mikko Rantanen/Cale Makar: It’s very hard to argue against this play tonight, as the Avalanche host the Blues. The Avalanche have the top power play and will be facing the 28th ranked penalty kill for the Blues. This is a great play, and they will likely be heavily owned tonight.
Colorado Avalanche 2 – Evan Rodrigues/Alex Newhook/Martin Kaut/Jacob MacDonald: This is a little unconventional for us to list the same team twice, but the numbers for this even strength matchup cannot be ignored. This line will most likely see the second Blues’ line, who has a small sample. However, in the 20 minute sample of ice time, they are giving up 48.96 scoring chances against per 60 and 25.92 high danger chances against per 60. That’s enough reason, on a small slate, to heavily consider playing this line tonight. There is some risk here, but it will be very different.
These are NHL DFS plays that carry significantly more risk, but could pay off at low ownership. They will be listed by position in the following order: Center/Winger/Winger/Correlating Defenseman (if applicable).
Los Angeles Kings 2 – Phillip Danault/Trevor Moore/Viktor Arvidsson/Sean Durzi: The Kings’ second line is in a good spot against the depth for Calgary. The Flames don’t really hard match, but this line should see a bunch of the second and third lines, creating a plus matchup. Throw in that Markstrom has been struggling a bit of late, and this looks like an interesting spot to play.
Carolina Hurricanes 3 – Jordan Staal/Jordan Martinook/Jesper Fast: If the Hawks run the same line matching scheme as the last couple of games, then this line should see a healthy dose of the top Hawks’ line. That puts this third line in a FANTASTIC spot tonight. They are cheap and could provide a ton of value. Make sure you aren’t stacking them against Soderblom in the same lineup.
Chicago Blackhawks 3 – Sam Lafferty/Boris Katchouk/Mackenzie Entwistle: This is another kind of crazy play tonight, and it pertains to the same line matching above. The third line over the last two games for the Hawks has matched the top opposing line, which would put these guys in a good spot. Their numbers aren’t as gaudy as the third Carolina line, but they are worth a look tonight in deeper GPPs.
NHL DFS Honorable Mentions: LAK1, CAR1, STL1, CGYPP
Consider these NHL DFS plays to help save you some salary in your lineups on DraftKings. Be sure to stack!
Center: Jordan Staal ($3200) – Carolina Hurricanes
Wing: Alex Newhook ($2600) – Colorado Avalanche
Defense: Colton Parayko ($3900) – St. Louis Blues
Consider these NHL DFS plays to help save you some salary in your lineups on FanDuel. Be sure to stack!
Center: Jordan Staal ($3800) – Carolina Hurricanes
Wing: Boris Katchouk ($3500) – Chicago Blackhawks
Defense: Josh Manson ($3900) – Colorado Avalanche
In this section, we will highlight some NHL player props that we like for the upcoming NHL slate.
Jordan Staal (CAR): anytime goal scorer (+330 on DK Sportsbook)
Viktor Arvidsson (LAK): anytime goal scorer (+215 on DK Sportsbook)
Mikko Rantanen (COL): over 3.5 shots on goal (+130 on DK Sportsbook)
Make sure to hop in our Expert Discord Chat for FREE! Jon and the NHL team will be there answering questions right up until lock! Be sure to be on the look out for future articles at https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-hockey/
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