NFL DFS: The Inside Look- Week 10 – Win Daily Sports

212

Welcome to the Week 10 edition of The Inside Look for the 2022 NFL season.  This will be a data driven article and will go under the hood to see if the box scores tell the whole story about what transpired during the weekend.   My goal here will be to either calm your nerves about a player that may have underperformed or cause you to rethink some of the spots you may have taken.

Week 10 was filled with drama and great games.  What we witnessed in Buffalo between the Bills and Vikings may go down as the game of the year.  The comeback by Aaron Rodgers and the Packers vs. Dallas may be the comeback of the year.  And finally, the Eagles have lost so we no longer have a perfect team. 

Let’s dig in to the data!

Wide Receiver Targets

Before we dig in to individual player performances I wanted to take a moment to talk about why we focus so heavily on Targets.  Targets equal opportunities and in fantasy opportunity more often than creates production.  The more targets that a player gets the better chance there is that the player will return on value. 

If you still haven’t watched a replay of the ‘catch’ by Justin Jefferson, I highly recommend you take a few moments out of your day to go see it.  You won’t regret it!  Jefferson was tied for the lead league in targets this weekend with 16.  He was able to catch 10 of them for 193 yards and one touchdown.  The star receiver for the Vikings just continues to get better. 

The 16 targets were the most he’s had this season as were the 193 receiving yards.  He’s now gone over the 100-yard mark in 6 of his 9 games this season.  He’ll get a matchup with the Dallas Cowboys in Week 11.

The other receiver to have 16 targets this week was on the other side of this game. Stefon Diggs corralled 12 of the 16 targets for 128 receiving yards.  The 12 catches were the most he’s had since Week 2 against the Titans.  Like Jefferson, Diggs has now surpassed the 100-yard mark in 6 of the 9 games he’s played this season. Next week he’ll look to keep up the momentum with a matchup vs. the Cleveland Browns. 

Was this the coming-out party for Ceedee Lamb?  Lamb had a career-high 15 targets on Sunday and boy did he make the most of them.  Lamb caught 11 of the 15 passes thrown his way and went for 150-yards and 2 touchdowns.  This was just the fifth 100-yard game for the third-year receiver and the first since Week 8 in 2021.   He’ll look to build off of this monster game in Week 11 vs. a Vikings team that is absolutely rolling right now. 

Running Back Targets

Austin Ekeler was the only running back even to sniff double-digit targets this weekend.  As has been the case in most weeks, Ekeler led the way with 12 targets this weekend.  He’s now had double-digit targets in 3 of his last 4 games.  While the targets were high, he failed to really do any meaningful damage with them as he caught 7 of them for just 39 yards.  Next week will be a tough matchup for the Chargers as they’ll play host to Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. 

Tight End Targets

Justin Jefferson wasn’t the only Vikings player to get targeted a whole bunch.  T.J. Hockenson led all tight ends this week with 10 targets.  Since joining the Vikings, he’s now been targeted a total of 19 times.  This week, he finished with an ok stat line of 7 catches and 45 yards.  Hock has now gone 5 consecutive games without finding the endzone, making him somewhat of a fantasy disappointment. 

Quarterback Target Share

Unlike the majority of recent weeks, more Dolphins players played a role in the passing the game this weekend.  While Hill was still the most heavily targeted Dolphins player, he was only targeted 6 times.  Running backs played a big part this weekend as nearly 40% of Tua’s passes this week went to the likes of Alec Ingold, Jeff Wilson, and Raheem Mostert. 

Justin Fields doesn’t throw often, but when he does, Cole Kmet is licking his chops.  Kmet was Fields most often used pass catcher this weekend and he did not disappoint.  His 7 targets led the Bears, as did his 2 receiving touchdowns and his 74 yards.  Kmet and Fields are just warming up and it’s going to be fun to continue to watch this tandem get more comfortable with each other. 

Kyler Murray essentially threw only to his receivers this weekend, and by receivers, I mean Rondale Moore and DeAndre Hopkins.  Moore and Hopkins accounted for 27 of Murray’s 35 passes this weekend. That’s a pretty centralized strategy if you ask me!

Running Back Touches

For just the second time this season, Saquon Barkley had more than 30 carries.  He set a season-high with 35 carries this weekend, 4 more than his previous best of 31.  He also had his second-most rushing yards this season with 152 yards.  The hot New York Giants will only go as far as Barkley will take them, and he’s trying his hardest to take them to the top!

Despite Chuba Hubbard returning from injury this week, D’Onta Foreman continued to be the main guy in Carolina as he carried the ball a season-high 31 times on Sunday.  He also rushed for a season-high 130 yards and found the endzone once.  Foreman owners had to be relieved after the absolute dud he put up in Week 9. 

Playbook

The ‘Playbook’ as I like to call it shows a breakdown of the play splits that teams used this past weekend.

As I mentioned above, D’Onta Foreman ran a ton this weekend.  This led the Panthers to go with a predominantly run-based offense this weekend as they ran close to 75% run plays vs. just 25% for passes.  I guess they have little faith in PJ Walker and his arm. 

On the other side of the playbook, we have the Jacksonville Jaguars.  While the masses gravitated to Travis Etienne this weekend, he was essentially irrelevant as he only ran the ball 11 times for 45 yards.  70% of the plays the Jaguars ran this weekend were passes as Trevor Lawrence threw the ball 40 times this weekend. 

Make sure to check out all of our NFL articles here.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!