DFS

All in all, this is a great slate. There is a huge 15-gameron tap, so let’s dig in to my Top Four favorite stacks of the night.

1.) Minnesota Twins

This season Alex Cobb has been nothing short of completelydreadful. In a very small sample size of 8.1 innings, he is pitching to thetune of an 11.88 ERA with a .527 wOBA. I am all over the Twins in this spot.This will be a pretty expensive stack, but I love the combination of NelsonCruz ($4,700 on DraftKings), Eddie Rosario ($5,300), Max Kepler ($4,200) andWillians Astudillo ($4,200). Alex Cobb, as recently as the 2018 season, hasshown his struggles against righty power. In 2018 Cobb held a 1.70 HR/9 torighties and a 1.15 HR/9 to lefties. This very low strikeout rate going againsta team that just does not strike out is a recipe for disaster. There will bemany balls put in play. Although Cobb is a ground-ball pitcher, players like Cruzand Rosario, who are around 40% fly ball hitters for their career, will have noissue. Also, Cobb throws this terrible split finger 39% of the time to leftiesand Kepler eats those up to a tune of a .396 wOBA as well as a .226 ISO. I seea very real opportunity this gets ugly very quick and then the Twins get toattack this very, very ugly Baltimore bullpen. This is a complete smash spot asI do believe the team total will open at right around five runs, so the Twinswill most likely be pretty chalky tonight.

2.) Toronto BlueJays

Yes, the Toronto Blue Jays. Mike Fiers is a gas can and he’sgoing to get lit up in this one. Over Fiers’ career, no matter who he pitchedfor, once he gets out of his home stadium he is dreadful. Fiers’ ERA on theroad jumps over a full run and the righty power he gives up (1.58 HR/9) isterrible. The players I am all over in this one start with Randal Grichuk whois very cheap at $4,100. He absolutely is his best self when he is at homeversus a righty, and he faces an extreme fly ball hitter with over a 40% flyball rate. That mixes perfectly with Fiers’ extreme fly ball rate, a recipe forHR after HR. I’m going to stack the Blue Jays up with Grichuk ($4,100), TeoscarHernandez ($3,900), Eric Sogard ($3,800) and Justin Smoak ($4,700). Also, thebest play on this team, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. makes his Major League debut, so throwhim in there to round out this amazing five stack. I personally think you canpair the Blue Jays and Twins and win a ton of money on this slate. TheAthletics’ bullpen is solid, but they will drop five to seven runs on Fiers. 

3.) SeattleMariners 

I actually love both sides of this game, but the Mariners getthe slight edge. Shelby Miller is just terrible, he gets mashed by lefties,mashed by righties, mashed by everyone. This is a very  good tournament stack. The Texas bullpen suckseven more than Miller, so after they knock him out in three innings, they get avery overworked bullpen. Daniel Vogelbach is one of my favorite plays on theslate, as he has just been completely mashing the ball this season so far. Millerjust cannot get out left-handed hitters, as they are batting a career .269 witha .338 wOBA against him. Can you say terrible? I’m all in on Vogelbach intournaments, he is my favorite play. Stack up Vogelbach ($4,900) with TimBeckham ($4,000), Mitch Haniger ($5,600), and Domingo Santana ($4,800). I knowthis is an expensive stack, but this will garner low ownership and will helpyou take down a tournament tonight. 

4.) PhiladelphiaPhillies 

They have scuffled and scuffled and scuffled these lastcouple of days, but this is the day I see them breaking out. Jose Urena is nota strikeout guy (about a 6 K/9), and is a decently high walk guy (about a 3W/9) and this bodes well for the Phillies. They have been striking out at avery high rate these last few games, I think this is what they need to rightthe ship. I’ll take the usual suspects here, starting with Rhys Hoskins, whocompletely mashes right-handed pitching. He is a career .275 hitter at homeversus righties and the power is there as we all know. Urena is a sinker ballpitcher and Hoskins mashes sinker balls. Hoskins holds a .557 wOBA as well as a.514 ISO against the sinker, which Urena throws 47.50% to righties. He has veryreverse splits, as he hits righties better than he hits lefties. I’ll pair RhysHoskins ($5,300) with Maikel Franco ($4,500), Andrew McCutchen ($4,500) and J.T.Realmuto ($4,500). These Phillies are in for a huge game in these next few daysand I will gladly stack them every day until they break out. I can almost betthey drop at least five runs on Urena.

There was an eight-game slate on Thursday April 25th. I am going to go into detail on a few players who performed really well and some who underachieved.

Winners

In this section I will be looking at players who performed better than expected and give you a brief outlook on their upcoming matchups.

Zack Greinke ($9,700 on DraftKings)

Starting with the first game of the day, Zack Greinke pitched extremely well and got the win. Greinke pitched seven shutout innings while giving up only two hits and one walk. He added seven strikeouts over his 105 pitches thrown. This all added up to Greinke’s best start of the year with 31.95 Fantasy points, which was over 13 points better than Win Daily projected. This was Greinke’s fifth straight good outing after getting roughed up in his season opener. Since giving up seven earned runs in his debut he has only allowed eight earned runs over his last 32.2 innings. He has not put up less than 22 points in his last five outings and has averaged 25.87 over those games.

Greinke’s Outlook

Greinke’s next projected start will be against Masahiro Tanaka and the New York Yankees. Coming into Thursday the Yankees won six straight games and were averaging 6.5 runs per game over that stretch. This is going to be a difficult matchup for Greinke, but with how he has started his year I would roster him with confidence in his next start.

Jarrod Dyson ($4,400)

Dyson went 3 for 5, which included a triple. He had one RBI and also added two runs scored. His 20 fantasy points outperformed our projection by more than 10 points. The D-Backs outfielder is having consistent success this year, batting .333. He has a very impressive OPS of .962 that includes three home runs. He now has hits in five straight games and will look to continue that streak against against Kyle Hendricks and the Cubs.

Dyson’s Outlook

Hendricks faced Arizona in his last outing and pitched great, posting a shutout through his seven innings. Dyson did not play in this game, and although Hendricks may have confidence after that start, it is hard to get through the same lineup three times in a game, let alone two starts in a row. I look for Dyson to continue his hitting streak and to keep playing well after his great start to the season.

Gerrit Cole ($10,200)

Looking at the late slate of games, Gerrit Cole pitched really well in a loss. Cole threw seven innings and had 10 strikeouts against three hits. He also gave up three walks and two of those hits were home runs. Even though Cole took the loss. he put up the second most Fantasy points on the day with 28.15. This was due in large part to the 10 strikeouts, which accounted for 20 of his points. In most games, giving up only two earned runs would have earned him the win and bumped his point total up to 32.15 and the top spot on the day. Cole’s last outing was his only one under 17 points this year and he has been consistent other than that. He has gone at least six innings in all but one game this year and his K/9 is impressively over 13! This will keep his upside high no matter what matchup he has going forward. He does have a couple of troubling areas, with 12 walks and six home runs given up this year.

Cole’s Outlook

Cole’s next start will be at the Minnesota Twins on Tuesday. The Twins have been really good to start the year. Even knowing that, Cole’s strikeout upside will keep him in my lineups at this price point moving forward.

Losers

In this section I will be looking at players who underperformed in their last game and their outlooks for their upcoming matchups.

Jameson Taillon ($9,100)

Jameson Taillon continued his inconsistent start to the year against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Taillon gave up five earned runs and six hits over five innings pitched to go with his five strikeouts. This equaled 7.1 fantasy points. He has struggled to get much going early this year with an ERA of 4.07 and a win-loss record of 1-3. Taillon has gotten through more than five innings just once in his last five starts. His 7.25 K/9 this year shows his upside is a bit capped so far this year. This is down from 8.1 K/9 in his career.

Taillon’s Outlook

The Pirates have been on a rough stretch, losing five straight, and head to L.A. to face the Dodgers next. Taillon’s next start will be in Texas against the Rangers. The Rangers offense has been really good this year, averaging over 5.5 runs per game with a team batting average of .252. I expect Taillon’s inconsistent start to continue and at a price in the $9,000 range I would not be rostering him any time soon. If he can push the strikeout numbers up along with being able to get through more than five innings consistently, he will make his way back onto my radar.

Kris Bryant ($4,300)

Bryant and the Cubs faced off against Ross Stripling and the Dodgers. Bryant only put up four points and all of that came on two walks. He went 0-for-2 with a strikeout in his official at-bats. The Cubs were able to get seven hits, but none came from Bryant. In his last 10 games, Bryant has three games with two points or fewer and three with 10 or more. Over those 10 games he has only been able to get eight hits and two RBI. On his season he is batting .238 with an OPS of only .733.

Bryant’s Outlook

The Cubs now go to Arizona to face the Diamondbacks, who they just took two of three from last weekend. Although they won two of three they were only able to score seven runs in those games. There is one opportunity to roster Bryant in this series and it is against Zach Godley on Saturday. Godley’s season ERA of 6.67 and WHIP of 1.59 bodes well for the Cubs to be able to put up some runs.