All in all, this is a great slate. There is a huge 15-gamer
on tap, so let’s dig in to my Top Four favorite stacks of the night.
1.) Minnesota Twins
This season Alex Cobb has been nothing short of completely
dreadful. In a very small sample size of 8.1 innings, he is pitching to the
tune of an 11.88 ERA with a .527 wOBA. I am all over the Twins in this spot.
This will be a pretty expensive stack, but I love the combination of Nelson
Cruz ($4,700 on DraftKings), Eddie Rosario ($5,300), Max Kepler ($4,200) and
Willians Astudillo ($4,200). Alex Cobb, as recently as the 2018 season, has
shown his struggles against righty power. In 2018 Cobb held a 1.70 HR/9 to
righties and a 1.15 HR/9 to lefties. This very low strikeout rate going against
a team that just does not strike out is a recipe for disaster. There will be
many balls put in play. Although Cobb is a ground-ball pitcher, players like Cruz
and Rosario, who are around 40% fly ball hitters for their career, will have no
issue. Also, Cobb throws this terrible split finger 39% of the time to lefties
and Kepler eats those up to a tune of a .396 wOBA as well as a .226 ISO. I see
a very real opportunity this gets ugly very quick and then the Twins get to
attack this very, very ugly Baltimore bullpen. This is a complete smash spot as
I do believe the team total will open at right around five runs, so the Twins
will most likely be pretty chalky tonight.
2.) Toronto Blue
Yes, the Toronto Blue Jays. Mike Fiers is a gas can and he’s
going to get lit up in this one. Over Fiers’ career, no matter who he pitched
for, once he gets out of his home stadium he is dreadful. Fiers’ ERA on the
road jumps over a full run and the righty power he gives up (1.58 HR/9) is
terrible. The players I am all over in this one start with Randal Grichuk who
is very cheap at $4,100. He absolutely is his best self when he is at home
versus a righty, and he faces an extreme fly ball hitter with over a 40% fly
ball rate. That mixes perfectly with Fiers’ extreme fly ball rate, a recipe for
HR after HR. I’m going to stack the Blue Jays up with Grichuk ($4,100), Teoscar
Hernandez ($3,900), Eric Sogard ($3,800) and Justin Smoak ($4,700). Also, the
best play on this team, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. makes his Major League debut, so throw
him in there to round out this amazing five stack. I personally think you can
pair the Blue Jays and Twins and win a ton of money on this slate. The
Athletics’ bullpen is solid, but they will drop five to seven runs on Fiers.
I actually love both sides of this game, but the Mariners get
the slight edge. Shelby Miller is just terrible, he gets mashed by lefties,
mashed by righties, mashed by everyone. This is a very good tournament stack. The Texas bullpen sucks
even more than Miller, so after they knock him out in three innings, they get a
very overworked bullpen. Daniel Vogelbach is one of my favorite plays on the
slate, as he has just been completely mashing the ball this season so far. Miller
just cannot get out left-handed hitters, as they are batting a career .269 with
a .338 wOBA against him. Can you say terrible? I’m all in on Vogelbach in
tournaments, he is my favorite play. Stack up Vogelbach ($4,900) with Tim
Beckham ($4,000), Mitch Haniger ($5,600), and Domingo Santana ($4,800). I know
this is an expensive stack, but this will garner low ownership and will help
you take down a tournament tonight.
They have scuffled and scuffled and scuffled these last
couple of days, but this is the day I see them breaking out. Jose Urena is not
a strikeout guy (about a 6 K/9), and is a decently high walk guy (about a 3
W/9) and this bodes well for the Phillies. They have been striking out at a
very high rate these last few games, I think this is what they need to right
the ship. I’ll take the usual suspects here, starting with Rhys Hoskins, who
completely mashes right-handed pitching. He is a career .275 hitter at home
versus righties and the power is there as we all know. Urena is a sinker ball
pitcher and Hoskins mashes sinker balls. Hoskins holds a .557 wOBA as well as a
.514 ISO against the sinker, which Urena throws 47.50% to righties. He has very
reverse splits, as he hits righties better than he hits lefties. I’ll pair Rhys
Hoskins ($5,300) with Maikel Franco ($4,500), Andrew McCutchen ($4,500) and J.T.
Realmuto ($4,500). These Phillies are in for a huge game in these next few days
and I will gladly stack them every day until they break out. I can almost bet
they drop at least five runs on Urena.
Won the FanDuel, 11K MLB Pickoff Single Entry Tournament in May of 2019. Started playing MLB DFS a couple years ago and have found success as mainly a cash game player. After playing season-long fantasy for five years I decided to give DFS a shot and have never looked back. Grinding all year around with MLB, NBA and NFL.