DFS

The Thursday slate is small, the margin for error is less, the probability of hitting the right batters is higher. With that, let us get into the selections, focusing on FanDuel prices.

1B: Edwin Encarnacion ($3800) @ J.A. HAPP

The matchup is pretty, Encarnacion is on fire! The lefty is hanging his pitches, the ballpark is HR ready, Encarnacion hit a HR on Wednesday. There is really nothing bad pointing to this matchup, so roll with it.

2B: Rougned Odor ($2800) @ Wade Miley

When Odor is swinging his HR stick like this, it does not matter it is a lefty vs. lefty matchup. Odor has the tools to be a fantasy stud, and when he is hot you play him no matter what.

3B: Ryon Healy ($2800) @ J.A. Happ

This price is outdated for this matchup. Healy is playing for a future job when Kyle Seager returns, and this matchup should be what the doctor ordered to continue his BEAST season.

SS: Elvis Andrus ($4100) @ Wade Miley

The matchup is perfect. Even though Andrus will likely not steal off the lefty despite the two stolen bases yesterday, Andrus is too hot to ignore. The potential for a HR is possible, a multi-hit game seems guaranteed.

OF: Domingo Santana ($3700) @ J.A. Happ

Take the chance Santana will carry the momentum of his hot season into a matchup against Happ on Thursday. Santana hit 30 HRs when he got full-time starts with the Brewers, he is showing that potential to do it again. Matchups like these keep him going.

OF: Mitch Haniger ($3900) @ J.A. Happ

There is not a hotter hitter in the game right now. Haniger has a couple HRs over the last two days and hitting in that leadoff spot should lead to magic. Haniger is hitting too well to disappoint against the struggling Happ.

OF: Brett Gardner ($3700) vs. Mike Leake

Gardner could see a lot of RBI opportunities in this matchup. I like the potential and if you have the budget to make it happen, do it. Leake does not blow anything by hitters, Gardner plays very well at home and is capable of launching a big HR.

MONKEY KNIFE FIGHT PICK

Cash Game Stud; 

Noah Syndergaard @ San Diego Padres – $10,100 DraftKings, $10,400 FanDuel

Syndergaard finally delivered last week, with a complete game shutout against the Reds. Now he heads into a very very pitcher friendly ballpark against a team that strikes out a lot. Sign me up. Syndergaard is a sinker ball pitcher, which is a pitch that the Padres as a whole struggle against. There’s a couple guys you could be afraid of, if you want to call it that, and that’s Eric Hosmer and Manny Machado. Hosmer hits sinkers pretty well, with a .495 wOBA and a .274 ISO. Manny is just plain and simple heating up and that’s a scary sight. I still love what Syndergaard did in his last start by just pounding the strike zone (71% strikes) and creating swing and misses and ground balls. I’m 100% confident and feel safe with using Syndergaard as my SP1 on both sites.

Cash Game Options;

Jon Lester vs Miami Marlins – $9,500 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel

In his last start Lester looked amazing, going seven strong and striking out eight in a win over the Mariners in Seattle. Unfortunately for us he got really priced up in this matchup. Although the price has jumped, I still like him. The Marlins are one of the worst teams in the league in terms of power against lefties, so we don’t have to worry about any balls leaving the park. A big thing here to watch is the weather. If the wind is blowing in, like it was on Monday, then Lester is even more of an amazing play. Wrigley’s weather is huge in that ballpark, it could change the whole complexion of the game. Lester is a lock and load against this Triple A lineup the Marlins keep throwing out there. A big thing for me if the whiff percentage on the changeup, which Lester throws a ton. Six players have over a 30% whiff rate against the changeup, that is no bueno. They don’t want to win and they sure play like it.

Collin McHugh vs Kansas City Royals – $8,200 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel

This is a perfect bounce back spot for Collin McHugh. He recently got touched up by the Minnesota Twins, but in all reality it was just a bad matchup for him. This Twins team does not strike out and is just a better team than everyone expected. McHugh at home this season holds a 3.03 ERA with a spectacular 11.21 strikeouts per nine. He is especially strong against right handed bats, making this matchup even better, as he will face six righties. As an early -220 favorite I love McHugh as an SP2 option on DraftKings and a decent tournament play in MME contests on FanDuel.

GPP Dart;

Max Fried @ Los Angeles Dodgers – $8,800 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel

I know people will read this and think I’m crazy, but the Dodgers aren’t all that great against left-handed pitching. Against LHPs this season the Dodgers have struck out 112 times, which is third worst in the league. They have a .245 batting average, which is 15th in the league. Yes the Dodgers are an amazing team, but against left handed pitchers they are just average. They all hit fastballs well, but Fried gets the platoon advantage against their best hitters in Bellinger, Seager, Muncy and Joc. Another thing Fried has going for him is his curveball, which the Dodgers all whiff against at very high percentages. Fried will go lower owned and I love him in tournaments.

Top Fade;

Jose Berrios @ Toronto Blue Jays – $10,400 DraftKings, $10,700 FanDuel

Jose Berrios is naturally a guy I don’t love playing away from Minnesota, and he’s shown why this season. His strikeout numbers drop over two strikeouts per nine innings. The thing I don’t like the most is his ERA jumps from 1.98 at home all the way to 4.26 on the road. His wOBA is .352 on the road and .222 at home. It’s almost like Berrios is a completely different pitcher and is not comfortable away from his home park. Now, I know the Blue Jays just got diced up by Martin Perez Monday night. We must remember that baseball changes from day to day just like that. This isn’t a spot where I think Berrios gets blown up, but I don’t think he pays off this price tag.

Monday is generally a travel day for many MLB teams. However, today’s slate is full with 12 games on deck. However, three of them are off the main slate because one is an afternoon game and two are starting in the six-something time-frame ET. That leaves us with nine games on the main slate and there are plenty of top-tier arms to choose from.

Top Tier Options

Gerritt Cole, Royals at Astros ($11,500 FD, $10,700 DK): Cole is certainly priced up across the industry. It is my job to tell answer the question, “is he worth it?” The short answer to this is yes for GPP, no for cash games. Cole is coming off his best start of the ’19 season, going seven scoreless innings while giving up only one hit, three walks and striking out 11 in Minnesota. Though the Royals are average to slightly above compared to MLB normals vs righties (21.5% K rate, .793 wOPS, .201 ISO), the only player on the Royals roster that has ever homered against Cole is Lucas Duda (who is currently on the IL). Billy Hamilton and Chris Owings are the only other Royals that have any sort of success against this power righty. Speaking of righties, the Royals are predominantly that and Cole dominates righties to the tune of only 14 hits in 80 ABs this season with 33 Ks. If Owings and Hamilton are the batters you fear in the Royals lineup you know it can be an easy matchup for Cole.

Jacob deGrom, Mets at Padres ($11,100 FD, $10,200 DK): This is another ace I can only recommend for GPPs as I feel the are some great, cheaper arms more appropriate for cash games. A few weeks back, there was panic in New York about deGrom. A MRI? The flu? Something else? Was there worry about another Tommy John surgery? Whatever it was, there was a stretch where he was an average pitcher at best. In three starts between April 9th and April 26th, he combined for a grand total of 54 FD points, an average of 18 a start, including two starts where he scored in single digits. He silenced the critics just a bit his last time out with seven strong innings, giving up only three hits, two walks, no earned runs while striking out six in a quality start against the Reds in New York. That is the deGrom from last year. He goes to a strong pitcher’s park in San Diego and faces a Padres lineup that struggles against righties to the tune of a .687 wOBA, .175 ISO and strikes out a third highest rate of 26.9%. Look for him to pitch a great game.

Middle Tier

Chris Paddack, Mets at Padres ($9,200 FD, $9,200 DK): Before this season is over, even casual baseball fans are going to know this guy. His makeup and his repertoire on the mound are old school and he is very advanced for a 23 year-old pitcher. Paddack has good velocity on his fastball, and he pairs it with a changeup with good drop and velocity separation, and a slow curve. That’s a nice pitch when it comes to keeping hitters off balance and neutralizing the opposite side. He throws strikes, walking only nine batters out of the 122 he has faced on the season so far. His is striking out over a batter an inning. And now here comes his most impressive stat of the young season: he has only given up 14 hits in 33 innings. That is not a typo. When batters are hitting $1.25 off of you, that is what happens. His last start was on April 30th, part of the Padres philosophy of giving him extra days off. He has consistently gone fairly deep in games this season, going at least five innings in every start but one and he gone six innings or more in each of his last three. He is my clear-cut #1 cash pitcher tonight against a Mets lineup that scares no one.

Cole Hamels, Marlins at Cubs ($9,000 FD, $9,000 DK): Hamels is my #2 option in cash games tonight but one thing does slightly scare me right now: the weather. A line of showers and thunderstorms threatens this game in terms of an in-game delay. While I do not think this game will be cancelled, an in-game delay can be disaster for a starting pitcher. Other than that, Hamels has been very good this year (1.09 WHIP, .207 BAA, only 4 HRs given up on the year with no games giving up multiple home runs). As documented time and time again, the Marlins lineup is bad. They are are 30th in OPS against righties but improve all the way to 28th against lefties (can you sense the sarcasm?) Take the savings and use Hamels or Paddack in cash games, and spend up on some Cubs bats on the other side of this game.

Bargain Basement

Vince Velasquez Phillies at Cardinals ($7,600 FD, $8,800 DK): More of a FD choice because of the price difference, Velasquez is a GPP-only option for me. For cash games, you want near certainty. VV is not that. He was tagged his last time out by the Tigers and lasted only 3.2 innings. One thing I like about him in this matchup is his ability to strike out batters. His last three starts feature eight, six and seven strikeouts respectively. Getting a massive park upgrade could help Velasquez against a Cardinals team that is a combined 14 for 68 (.201 batting average) with only two HRs hit off of him.

Martin Perez Twins at Blue Jays ($7,500 FD, $6,600 DK): A DK only play because of the price and one that is worth cash consideration. At FD’s price, he is likely a GPP only play because expected low ownership. Perez has picked up three wins in a row and has an 18:5 K/BB ratio, a 2.08 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP since moving into the starting rotation four outings ago. He is throwing a career high 94.7 mph leading to a 10.6 Swinging Strike Percentage. Toronto is really struggling offensively right now and now might be the time to unleash Perez against them.

Today we have a eight game slate starting at 12 EST. Let’s digin to the options I prefer to have.

Jose Berrios vs HoustonAstros – $9,900 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel

Berrios has always been a player who just has that extra juiceat home. That stands true this season as he holds a 1.77 ERA in with an 11.07K/9. The Houston Astros are a powerhouse offense, which may steer people away,but that doesn’t worry me at all. They have been scuffling offensively andalthough they aren’t striking out a ton, they aren’t hitting either. I am allin on Berrios as he is the only stud I am willing to pay for. I don’t see ablowup here at all and the upside is the highest on the slate.

Jon Gray @ MilwaukeeBrewers – $8,000 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel

Jon Gray’s strikeout upside is one of the highest today and thisprice is too cheap for me. As I expect Christian Yelich to miss this one,that’s a huge relief for Gray. There are strikeouts in this lineup and Graywill definitely pick them out. The way he will find his strikeouts is through hisslider, which he throws a ton. The Brewers have a pretty high whiff percentageagainst the slider, as six players are over 30%. The Rockies are opening up asan underdog but I expect them to start the game as a favorite. 

Mike Foltynewicz vs SanDiego Padres – $7,800 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel

The strikeout stuff has always been there for Foltynewicz, butthe ability to go deep into games has always been a major problem for him. ThePadres are a team who can easily strikeout 10 times against Folty and that’sabout what I expect here if he goes at least six innings. Another big plus forme is the matchup the Braves have with Matt Strahm. Opening as a -130 favoriteI personally think there is no chance of the Padres winning this game. The onething that stands out to me with the Padres is the MAJOR whiff percentage theyhave against sliders, which is Foltynewicz’s strikeout pitch. I wouldn’t besurprised if he eclipses 10-plus strikeouts in this one. I will say he is wayoverpriced on FanDuel.

Tyler Mahle @ New YorkMets – $5,900 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel

I know how gross this seems, but I’m not really in love with allthese options on this slate. I am willing to take a flyer on Mahle as a SP2. Hestruggles against left-handed bats, and the Mets have three really good ones.If he can limit the power, there are strikeouts up and down this lineup. TheMets have been playing bad offensive ball this whole series and it couldcontinue in this one. As the total opens up at seven and a half, Vegas agreesthat we won’t see much offense. Mahle is more of a pitch to contact and groundball type of pitcher to righties (47.4%) and a fly ball pitcher to lefties(45.1%). Playing in Citi Field in this one helps his case, as it’s moredifficult to give up home runs. I love the case for Mahle here, i think he getsaround 17-20 if the Reds can get him a win here. 

We have asmall eight game slate scheduled for Thursday. Despite the lighter slate thereare still a few sweet spots for stacking options for May 2nd.

Atlanta Braves

Any time theBraves’ offense is opposed by a lefty, they have to be considered for stackingpurposes. Against southpaws this season, Atlanta has been very successful. As ateam they have a .239 ISO (third highest), a .287 AVG (fourth highest), 14 homeruns (fourth most) and 49 runs (third most) against left-handed pitching.

And tonightis no different. While the Padres’ Matt Strahm has a respectable 3.04 ERA thereis some regression coming. On the season he has a 4.44 SIERA and a 4.79 xFIP,while allowing a 45% hard contact rate.

As you lookto stack Braves’ bats, consider the usual suspects: Ozzie Albies (.375 ISO, .495wOBA vs. L), Freddie Freeman (.364 ISO, .461 wOBA vs. L) and Ronald Acuna (.423ISO, .461 wOBA vs. L). If you are interested in going to a four-man stack withthe Braves, consider using Johan Camargo. The 3B/OF has mashed against leftiesthis season with a .300 AVG and a 161 wRC+. He also is just $2,600 on FanDueland should help you afford the other three as they are all priced over $4,000there.

Colorado Rockies

Whenever theBrewers run Freddy Peralta to the bump, there should be interest in stackingagainst him. The right-hander is basically everything we look for whensearching for a pitcher to target against. Peralta is a flyball pitcher with a53% flyball rate. He has a 42.3% hard contact rate. The flyballs and hardcontact have led to home runs, as the Brewers’ hurler is allowing 2.55 HR/9.And the cherry on the top is he is a one-pitch guy. Peralta is throwing hisfastball 79% of the time in 2019.

So ofcourse, we want to get some Rockies in our DFS lineups for Thursday. Our stackneeds to start with Trevor Story. The shortstop has the best matchup of any ofthe Colorado batters. Story has a .267 ISO versus right-handed pitching and a .349batting average against fastballs. It also doesn’t hurt that Peralta isallowing a .424 wOBA to righty bats in 2019.

You willwant to get in some Charlie Blackmon (.228 ISO vs fastballs) and David Dahl(.281 ISO vs fastballs) with Story. If you want to get a bit contrarian withyour Rockies’ stack, Mark Reynolds could be an option if he cracks the startinglineup. He has a .233 ISO and a .340 wOBA against right-handed pitching thisseason. Reynolds also helps free up some cash, as he is just $2,100 on FanDueland $3,700 on DraftKings.

Milwaukee Brewers

The Rockies’Jon Gray is having a fine season with a respectable 3.65 ERA. But his 4.44SIERA suggests he is vulnerable to a blowup. And that blowup likely will comeagainst a team with some heavy lefty sticks. Gray is allowing a .371 wOBA and1.96 HR/9 to left-handed batters this season.

While thisstack is not as appealing with Christian Yelich likely sidelined, there stillis some firepower left to build around. Mike Moustakas has a .297 ISO and a.394 wOBA versus right-handed pitching. He also has shown some power againstfastballs this season, which Gray throws 51% of the time, with a .308 ISOagainst the pitch type. Eric Thames is also in play with a .289 ISO againstrighties. If you are looking to dig deep, Travis Shaw does have two home runsin 11 career at-bats against the Rockies’ starter. He also comes with a reducedprice tag of just $3,600 on DraftKings.

Boston Red Sox

In theirlast three games, the Red Sox offense has gotten it going. In that span theyscored 21 runs. Expect the Boston bats to stay hot in this one. The White Soxwill oppose the red-hot offense with right-hander Lucas Giolito. The Chicagohurler has struggled this season with a 5.30 ERA and is returning from a stinton the IR. In his career he has had a tough time with lefties. He owns a career5.55 xFIP versus them, while maintaining just a 15.4% K%. With that in mind,start your Boston stack with Mitch Moreland. Not only is he reasonable pricedon FanDuel at $3,400 but also the first baseman has homered in two straight andowns a .365 ISO against righties in 2019. You will also want some AndrewBenintendi in your stack. He has a .341 wOBA versus right-handed pitching thisseason. And although they are not left-handed, round out your Red Sox stackswith Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez. Chicago’s Giolito has thrown his fastball56% of the time this season and both of those outfielders have ISOs over .220on that type of pitch.

Washington Nationals

The St.Louis Cardinals’ Dakota Hudson seems like a good target to pick on forThursday. He has the fourth highest ERA and the third highest SIERA of anypitcher on the hill today. He has been particularly weak against left-handedbats in his career. He owns a 5.83 xFIP, while allowing a .453 wOBA and a 46.8%hard contact rate to lefties. The left-handed bats to target from the Nationalsinclude Matt Adams (.244 ISO vs R) and Adam Eaton (.366 OBP vs R).

Good luckand happy stacking!