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DFS Pitching/MLB Prop Picks for 5/4



Monkey Knife Fight

Saturday’s are one the few days of the week where the DFS schedule is split up almost evenly. Play the early only. Or late only. Or combine them for an all-day slate. Just like we will see in our pitching options, there are plenty of contests to try.

Top Tier:

I can not fully recommend spending up today as I think there are values further down the cost chart that I like much more. And there is a dearth of ace arms anyways. Carrasco against a Seattle team that can really hit? No thanks. Same for Happ…have you watched the Twins swing the bat in 2019? Wheeler in Miller Park? Next. The one guy I like towards the top of price chart is:

Mike Soroka, Braves at Marlins ($9,900 FD, $8,900 DK): Before discussing Soroka himself, lets take a look at his opponent. The Marlins are dead last in ISO vs righties at .108. They are also last in wOBA at .628. And their home park is dreadful for hitters as well, ranking 23rd to hit HRs in. So, you could get me to recommend ANY righty against the Marlins. Now let’s look at Soroka. Against the Padres in Atlanta in his last start, he struck out a season high eight batters while giving up only four hits, a walk and an earned run in second win on the young season. He has an impressive 21 Ks in only 16.2 innings pitched. I really like him in this spot.

Middle Tier:

Eduardo Rodriguez, Red Sox at White Sox ($8,500 FD, $9,200 DK): I wrote him up in my last article and I am going back to the well again. His results were mixed against an Oakland team that crushes lefties: 4.2 innings pitched, seven hits, four earned runs, but he did strike out seven. He obviously did not get out of the fifth inning. However, the seven Ks tied his second highest total on the young season. As I detailed, he is trying to use the slider in his arsenal and he threw several gems against the A’s. He may have better luck going against the hapless (vs. lefties) White Sox. They strike out 27.2% of the time and have only a 33.2% hard hit rate against southpaws.

Rich Hill, Dodgers at Padres ($9,400 FD, $9,600 DK): San Diego is another team that struggles against lefties (24.2% K rate, .298 wOBA, and .164 ISO). In his first start of the season, Hill went six innings, giving up five hits (two of them HRs), only one earned run, didn’t walk anyone and struck out six. Expect the veteran Hill (who throws a cutter nearly 40% of the time) to be able to last a bit longer against a Padres team that as a whole, struggles against cutters.

Bargain Basement:

Wade Miley, Astros at Angels ($6,800 FD, $6,900 DK): Miley has re-invented himself this season and is getting batters out by keeping them off-balance. He is using his cutter a career high 52.5% of the time and his four-seamer a near-career low 13% of the time. And you can not argue with his results in 2019 so far: less than a hit an inning, a 1.14 WHIP, .238 BAA and a line-drive percentage of only 19.3. And his opponent struggles against lefties. On the year, the Angels rank near the bottom of MLB in both wOBA and ISO with .630 and .136 marks respectively. Note: this game is being played in Mexico.

Monkey Knife Fight Pick:

Justin Smoak, Blue Jays at Rangers (over/under 1.5 hits and walks): Lance Lynn is an average MLB starting pitcher, at best. The Rangers’ home ballpark is one of the nest parks for offense in all of MLB. I like the Jays’ offense to break out of the doldrums in this spot and Smoak is likely to be a big part of it.


DFS meteorologist concentrating on MLB and the NFL, I graduated from UMass-Lowell with a degree in meteorology in 1996. I worked at AccuWeather as a meteorologist for almost a decade. I combined my two loves, weather and sports, and like to think I help 1000s of DFS'ers out each day. Huge Boston sports fan, lover of nature and animals and a proud father of 4 boys (2 biological).

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