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Win Daily Show Interview with Rich Masana

On this Win Daily Show Interview with Rich Masana, Rich tells us how he started in Fantasy sports and how he landed a gig here at Win Daily.

Rich Masana joins Michael Rasile to discuss how he landed a gig with the Win Daily Sports team as a Fantasy Writer. Rich focuses a lot of his time writing here on Soccer, MLB, and NHL.

Rich grew up loving these sports and playing season long fantasy. When he was finally exposed to the DFS world he started to crush it. Rich is currently ranked in the top 4% of DFS players in the world by Rotogrinders. He attributed his success to sticking with his processes that have worked for him over time. He never spends more than $200 a night on either DraftKings or FanDuel. He is always cognizant of the games he is playing in as well, rarely putting a lineup into a milli maker. Some may not be a huge fan of playing like this, but Rich has the record, and bankroll, to prove that it has worked for him.

Rich was brought on by Jason to join the team because of this and the fact that he is always spreading positivity, he’s a smart guy, and looking to help the others around him.

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Hey everyone, last night was a very successful one for WinDaily’s hockey crew and we hope you were able to join along for the ride. Tonight we have an 11-game slate to examine. We have brought you guys a full breakdown of each game followed by our top plays on the slate at the bottom for the 10/10 NHL DFS slate.

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TORONTO vs. TAMPA BAY – This matchup pits two of the best offenses in the league against each other in what promises to be a high scoring affair. Even though both teams have had solid goaltending their defensive-minded play has been rather questionable Targets: Matthews-Rielly (Stack), Point-Kucherov (Stack)

DETROIT vs. MONTREAL – Montreal just lost an OT thriller last night to the Buffalo Sabres, while the Red Wings have recently had their season-opening flame put out by the Anaheim Ducks. Tonight’s matchup pits two original six teams against each other, both are very similar but I have to give Montreal a slight edge Targets: Domi-Suzuki, Larkin-Mantha, Kotkanemi-Armia


EDMONTON vs NEW JERSEY – Unfortunately for New Jersey they did not start the season as they would’ve hoped and it doesn’t look as though it will be getting much better tonight. New Jersey has had one major problem area coming into the season and that was goaltending, This has turned out to be a major problem and tonight the Devils will start Blackwood between the pipes, Mackenzie Blackwood has not been playing at an NHL level and will most likely be exposed by Edmonton’s high powered offensive options Targets: McDavid-Draisaitl-Bear


ST. LOUIS vs. OTTAWA – As mentioned last article, Ottawa is one of the worst teams in the league and coughs up a lot of goals because of it. The Sens proceeded to give up four goals en route to a 4-1 loss to the Rangers last Saturday. St. Louis won the Cup last year and won’t be taking it easy on the Senators who finished dead last. This is a true first vs. worst matchup Targets: St. Louis Blues 1, Blais-OReilly-Faulk


WASHINGTON vs. NASHVILLE – Washington has been good this season but the Preds have had the scoring touch as of late with 13 goals through their first three games. With tonight’s game in Smashville, I gotta favor the home side. Targets: Nashville Predators 1-Josi, Rinne


MINNESOTA vs WINNIPEG – Neither of these two teams have been particularly impressive thus far this season but Winnipeg has arguably been the better side as the Wild have yet to record a win this season. The Jets, on the other hand, have scored four or more goals in three of their four games. Targets: Winnipeg Jets 1-Pionk

sSAN JOSE vs CHICAGO – Gonna have heavy shares of Chicago in this one as they are probably my favorite offense tonight. San Jose’s backup, Aaron Dell, who will get the start tonight, has been absolutely catastrophic over the past two seasons. He has statistically been one of the worst goalies in the NHL and his last game did not help his cause as he gave up three in a 3-1 loss to the Ducks. Targets: Chicago Blackhawks 2, Kane-Gustafsson


CALGARY vs DALLAS – Two strong teams with mediocre starts to the season. This game also works as a game stack, however, I will prioritize the Flames in this matchup. Targets: Calgary Flames 1-Dallas Stars 2, Tkachuk

ANAHEIM vs PITTSBURGH – The Ducks are off to one of their strongest starts in a while and Gibson has relatively held down the fort, only allowing one goal in each of his three starts while holding a SV% of .970. Pittsburgh will also be nursing some significant injuries Targets: Crosby-Simon, Isac Lundestrom, Devin Shore


BOSTON vs. COLORADO – Both teams have started their 2019-20 campaigns on a strong note and both teams present some good value options to explore, however, I think there are better options on this slate. Targets: Kadri, Makar, Heinen-Coyle, Kuraly


VEGAS vs ARIZONA – Pure mismatch here, Vegas should take this win walking away and score a lot of goals in the process. Vegas has averaged four goals a game and Fleury has held the door relatively shut with a 2.02 GAA and a .935 SV% Targets: Vegas Golden Knights 1, Glass-Pacioretty, Fleury

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10/10 NHL DFS TOP EXPOSURE PLAYS:
St. Louis Blues >> St. Louis Blues 1, Blais-O’Reilly-Faulk
Vegas Golden Knights >> Vegas Golden Knights 1, Glass- Pacioretty
Chicago Blackhawks >> Chicago Blackhawks 2, Kane-Gustafsson
Edmonton Oilers >> McDavid-Draisaitl-Bear

10/10 NHL DFS MID EXPOSURE PLAYS:
Calgary Flames >> Calgary Flames 1, Calgary Flames 2, Andersson
Nashville Predators>> Nashville Predators 1, Josi, Rinne
Winnipeg Jets >> Winnipeg Jets 1-Pionk

10/10 NHL DFS RECOMMENDED GAME STACKS:
Toronto vs Tampa Bay >> Toronto Maple Leafs 2-Tampa Bay Lightning 1
Calgary vs Dallas >> Calgary Flames 1-Dallas Stars 2

10/10 NHL DFS RECOMMENDED PUNT PLAYS:
Nick Suzuki MTL
Isac Lundestrom ANA
Roope Hintz DAL

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Hi everyone, I hope you have been successful with our NHL content thus far, including yesterday’s article from my colleague Dan Wehr (@charmcityboy52 on Twitter). Today we have an eight-game 10/8 NHL DFS slate to delve into, so let’s get started!

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10/8 NHL DFS Centers

Roope Hintz – Hintz has truly been phenomenal to begin the season. Despite his team dropping their first three matchups of the season, Hintz has contributed with three goals in those three games. Hintz has been paired alongside NHL All-Star Joe Pavelski, while also being featured on Dallas’ top power-play unit. It seems as though Hintz is destined for a breakout year, following his strong rookie performance in the 2018-19 season.

Sidney Crosby – Last game, Crosby reminded everyone that the Kid’s still got moves when he set up two goals in Saturday night’s 7-2 thrashing of the Colombus Blue Jackets at PPG Paints Arena. Tonight, the Pens will be back at home in PPG to play host against the struggling Jets, who have let in 14 goals in just three games, tying them for the worst in the league with the aforementioned Blue Jackets. With Malkin out long term, the team will rely on Crosby more to lead the offence, giving him more power play opportunities and more ice-time overall. The Pens will be facing Jets goalie Connor Hellebuyck tonight, who has a GAA of 5.08 and an SV% of .893 this season. Crosby pairs well with the expensive Jake Guentzel and the cheap Dominik Simon, along with defenseman Kris Letang.


Honorable Mention: Dylan Larkin

10/8 NHL DFS Wingers


Anthony Mantha – Detroit has scored nine goals en route to starting the season with a 2-0-0 record. Out of these nine goals, Mantha has five goals and two assists. This was coming off a strong preseason where Mantha scored four goals in his final four preseason games. Mantha has seen an average of 20 minutes of ice-time and will be on the team’s top power-play unit. Mantha pairs excellently with linemates Bertuzzi and Larkin.

Patrik Laine – Laine has been rewarded for his strong play to begin the season by being moved to the top line alongside Blake Wheeler and Mark Scheifele. Laine has recorded a goal and two assists in his first three games of the season and will also be given power play time on the top unit allowing him to embark on a four-game winning streak tonight against the Penguins in what promises to be a high scoring affair. (OPTIMAL GAME STACK WPG vs PIT)
HM: Matthew Tkachuk

10/8 NHL DFS Defensemen

Mark Giordano – Undrafted All-Star Mark Giordano has had a strong start to his 2019-20 NHL campaign with two points in his first two games while averaging 25 minutes in the process. Tonight the Flames will play host to the Los Angeles Kings, who allowed the 10th most goals in the NHL last season with 259 goals against. Quick has been a shell of his former self, this season and the last, coughing up six against the Oilers last game and posting his worst statistical season last year with a 3.38 GAA and a .888 SV%.


Ryan Pulock – Pulock has been a defensive beast for the Isles thus far this season, not just because he recorded a point last game en route to a 4-1 win over the Jets, but he has also posted four shots and three blocked shots in his two games this season. Pulock has been averaging 22 minutes of ice time per game and plays alongside Calder Trophy winner Mat Barzal on the Islanders’ top power-play unit. Tonight, the Islanders will be playing at home in Nassau Coliseum and will face off against the Oilers and Mike Smith, who, despite winning his first two games of the season has given up an average of 3.5 goals in the process, including five to the lowly Kings. If you are looking for a cheaper alternative to Pulock with a similar upside, consider his teammate Devon Toews.
HM: Marcus Petterson, Roman Josi

10/8 NHL DFS Goalies


David Rittich – Big Save Dave will play host to the Kings tonight, and these two divisional rivals are in two different ballparks when it comes to talent. Specifically, in the goalie matchup where Rittich has posted strong numbers with a 2.02 GAA and a .938 SV% to start the season, while his counterpart is continuing the negative trajectory from last season. Not to mention, Rittich is coming off a 3-0 shutout win over the Vancouver Canucks last Saturday. Calgary has by far the best odds of the slate with an opening line of -195.


Pekka Rinne – Rinne is in a similar position to Rittich and will be facing a struggling Sharks team at home in Smashville. Rinne has also posted strong numbers to begin the season with a 2.00 GAA and a .917 SV% which is completely contrasted by the numbers on the other end of the rink where Martin Jones has given up a 4.80 GAA while only holding a save percentage of .862. Given that the Sharks have begun the season 0-3-0, things aren’t looking too great for them. Not to mention Nashville are clear favorites tonight with a -150 opening line.

10/8 NHL DFS STACKS

Detroit Red Wings 1 – Despite having only played two games, the Red Wings will play host to the Anaheim Ducks. Despite strong starts from both teams, Detroit defeated stronger opposition while scoring more goals, in just two games Detroit scored nine goals. Out of these nine goals, eight came from this line. Bertuzzi-Larkin-Mantha has proven to be one of the most productive lines in hockey to start the season and given the weak nature of Anaheim’s defence, it will be open season on John Gibson at Little Ceasars Arena tonight
HM
Tampa Bay 1

10/8 NHL DFS Power Play of the Day Florida PP1
– Florida had the second-best power-play percentage in the entire league last season, converting on 26.8% of opportunities during the regular season.
HM: Winnipeg Jets PP1

10/8 NHL DFS Punts
Dennis Cholowski – The young defensive stud has contributed offensively to the onslaught that has been the start of the Red Wings season, led by Mantha. Cholowski already has an assist in his first two games and has played over 16 minutes on both occasions. On top of this, Cholowski will be the defensive anchor for Detroit’s white-hot first power-play unit.
HM: Dominik Simon, Taro Hirose, Denis Gurianov

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Since our last RFA article, there have been many exciting updates to cover. We will revisit our three marquee RFAs and see where they stand today as we are approaching the start of the regular season. First, here is a recap on the difference between an RFA and a UFA.

In the NHL there are two kinds of Free agents. There are Unrestricted Free Agents (UFAs) who are eligible to sign for any team and there are Restricted Free Agents (RFAs). The latter are players whose signing rights belong to the team that drafted them, provided that the team tendered the player a qualifying offer at the expiration of their “Entry Level Deal.”

As a note, all NHL deals, including Canadian ones are made in U.S. Dollars and AAV stands for Average Annual Value. Regardless of how much money a player makes per year, the AAV is what counts against a teams cap space each season.

  1. Brayden Point – Tampa Bay Lightning
    Our first update is a major one as the Lightning and Point came together on a 3-year bridge deal valued at $20.25 million (or an AAV of $6.75). As was predicted, after negotiations around the league began to come to a conclusion, many RFAs would get more serious in their contract talks. With Point not being interested in practicing in Europe or an offer sheet, it was only a matter of time until Point and the Bolts reached a deal, as it just came down to what Tampa Bay was able to afford. The good news for Tampa is that after Point’s three-year contract expires, he will still be under team control, meaning he will have RFA status.
  2. Patrik Laine – Winnipeg Jets
    Unfortunately for the Jets, things don’t look much better than when we last examined the Laine RFA negotiation standstill. On the positive side for the Jets, Josh Morrissey (whose contract had not yet expired) re-signed for 8 years for $50 million (or an AAV of $6.25 million). Now that’s where the good news ends for the Jets as their situation with Laine has been the most notable of the bunch from a media perspective as he is now training with S.C. Bern in Switzerland along with Colorado RFA Mikko Rantanen. But Laine also made comments on his role with the Jets, signaling that he was discontent with his usage and would be given a higher role in any other team. According to Laine (and Rantanen’s agent), the 2016 second overall pick and the Jets organization are not close to a deal and right now it is unclear if the two sides will come to an agreement before puck drop on opening night. Notably, the Jets are still yet to sign RFA Kyle Connor and as we saw with William Nylander last year, holdouts are on the table for both these players.
  3. Mitch Marner – Toronto Maple Leafs
    The big RFA fish of the summer, Mitch Marner has signed a 6-year deal valued at $65.358 million (or $10.893 AAV) according to Hockey Night in Canada’s Elliotte Friedman. With this signing, the Leafs seem to have all their ducks in a row in preparation for the 2019-2020 campaign. After much speculation throughout the summer, Marner only ended up missing one day of camp. This contract may present some cap complications for the Leafs during the 2020 offseason as they will have five defensemen looking for new deals, most notably, Codi Ceci, Tyson Barrie and Jake Muzzin. Hockey analysts regard Marner’s contract as the contract to set the market and many agents say they will be using it as a comparable when discussing deals with their client’s GMs.

    Honorable Mentions:
    Matthew Tkachuk (Was skating with the London Knights of the OHL, Has just signed at 3 years for $21 million, with an AAV of $7)
    Mikko Rantanen (Skating with SC Bern of the Swiss league with Laine, not close with Colorado, Colorado will have 6 RFA’s next season)
    Brock Boeser (Signed, 3-year bridge deal for $17.625 Million USD, $5.875 AAV)

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Welcome everyone to the first DFS NHL Player Report of the 2018-19 NHL Preseason! Today’s article will be discussing the 2019 1st overall pick, Jack Hughes.

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Taken by the Devils, Hughes represents the beginning of the team’s big splash this offseason. Hughes was projected to go first overall in his draft year since the age of 16 and since then he has given scouts no reason to think otherwise. After drafting Hughes, the Devils bolstered more, adding P.K. Subban, Nikita Gusev and Wayne Simmonds.

Hughes is in a position to make an impact at the NHL level and in DFS NHL straight out of the draft and will most likely start on a line paired with former first overall and NHL MVP, Taylor Hall as well as on the team’s top power play unit. Hall himself will be underrated given that he spent most of last season on the IR. So the quality and expertise he will bring to Hughes’ game will not only be unrivaled but will also be unexpected.

Hughes is a left-handed center who forewent the OHL to play for the US National Team Development Program, where he nearly beat the record of most points scored, set by Auston Matthews, missing it only by one point. Hughes also set a remarkable average over 2 PPG (points-per-game) against teams in the USHL, much higher than the previous record of 1.45 PPG.

Hughes is known for his speed and puck handling while maintaining speed. Despite being considered “undersized” his tool kit more than makes up for it. Many scouts and managers see him as a franchise leader that can create a brand new culture with a new team within a matter of years. More importantly the overall game of hockey has begun to shift away from the hard hitting and enforcing mentality, gradually shifting over to a more speed and skill based sport. This kind of game is perfectly suited to Hughes’ skill set and I project his impact to be strong and immediate.

From a DFS NHL perspective, Hughes will most likely start the season within the mid-tier price range and although he is unproven at the professional level, during his time with the USNDTP he was competing against college players and USHL players 4 or 5 years older than him. During the IIHF World Championships he was competing against NHL players. Hughes is lucky that he will be surrounded by elite talent that will allow him to develop into a top tier talent in the league and with the amount of ice time he is set to play, it is well worth a shot early in the season.

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When it comes to hockey, sometimes it’s the teams that fly under most people’s radar that have the best chance of success. When looking at “Dark Horse” teams, it’s best to identify teams who aren’t generally considered contenders around the league but do have the pieces on paper to have a successful season and help you in DFS NHL. Unlikely success stories happen all the time in hockey, with the most recent example being the St. Louis Blues winning the Stanley Cup after being last in the league coming into the new year.

The pieces in these teams could not only prove vital to their team’s overall success but can contribute to our DFS NHL success through low-owned value finds.

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Philadelphia Flyers
The Flyers underwent turmoil on what seemed to be a consistent basis last season. That included a revolving door of goalies which led to the Flyers setting the record for most goalies used in a season (8), firing coach Dave Hakstol part way through the year and taking on an eight game losing streak through late December and early January.

However, looking at how the team stacks up now, there is definitely hope for this upcoming year as well as future seasons. The Flyers have many young talents that have already shown promise at the top level. At this point, the Flyers are boasting one of the most promising young cores in the NHL, and this includes Hart, Konecny, Lindblom, Patrick, Frost and Provorov. Not to mention the Flyers have also strengthened their lines this offseason by adding depth pieces, namely, Niskanen, Hayes and Braun. However, most importantly to their success they also hired NHL veteran coach Alain Vigneault to lead the team into the 2019-20 season, in hopes to bring stability to the City of Brotherly Love.

From a DFS NHL perspective, the Flyers can produce cheap and effective depth lines, providing smart targets once they heat up. For example, a third line consisting of Lindblom, Frost and Patrick could be one of the better value lines this season.

Vancouver Canucks
The Vancouver Canucks struggled to find any sort of consistency throughout the 2018-19 NHL season. They routinely dealt with injuries to key pieces such as Elias Pettersson and Brock Boeser. Despite the head injury, Pettersson was still able to win the Calder Trophy after an overall outstanding performance last season.

Coming off Pettersson’s stellar year, there is plenty to look forward to for Vancouver fans and DFS NHL players in anticipation of the 2019-20 NHL season. As of right now it looks like both Quinn Hughes and Thatcher Demko are in a position to jostle for long term roles with the squad. If Boeser (RFA) signs a new contract, it looks as though he will start on the top line alongside Pettersson and new acquistion J.T. Miller. Miller was not the only player brought in by the Canucks this offseason and they were also able to add strong depth pieces such as Micheal Ferland, Tyler Myers, Oscar Fantenberg and Jordie Benn. Whether or not the Canucks will make the playoffs this season is still up for debate, however, they have made massive strides from last season and I look forward to seeing how they progress.

Much like his brother Jack, Quinn Hughes is looking very promising at the NHL level. Last season, Hughes only appeared in five games for the Canucks and was able to record three assists, as a defenseman no less. Vancouver is also an excellent place for growth as a defenseman since the young player will be able to learn alongside both Alex Edler and Tyler Myers. From a DFS NHL perspective, Quinn could represent a strong value defensive option early on in the season as he is slated to play on the second defensive line and top power play unit.

Dallas Stars
Unlike the other two teams on this list, the Dallas Stars had a relatively successful season last year which led to a playoff run where they were eliminated by the eventual champs, the St. Louis Blues. Despite the strong performance last season, the Stars have still made improvements on the offensive side adding Joe Pavelski and Corey Perry. When it comes to the back end, the Stars already have a solid defensive core in Klingberg, Lindell and Heiskanen as well as strong goaltending with Ben Bishop (provided he stays healthy). Gurianov could also prove to be a nice addition on the wing after scoring 48 goals in 57 games with the Texas Stars of the AHL last season. Despite the strong performance last season, many are quick to overlook the Stars, when in reality they are capable of another run at the cup in 2019-20.

DFS NHL wise, there is obviously a lot to like with the Stars. It would be worthwhile to target players such as Esa Lindell, who plays alongisde elite scoring defenseman John Klingberg, Joe Pavelski who recorded 38 goals in 75 games last season for the Sharks, Corey Perry who will be a cheap winger looking to return to form after last season and Denis Gurianov as he is slated to be playing alongside strong talent in Alexander Radulov and Roope Hintz as well as possibly seeing some power play minutes.

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In the NHL there are two kinds of Free agents. There are Unrestricted Free Agents (UFAs) who are eligible to sign for any team and there are Restricted Free Agents (RFAs). The latter are players who’s signing rights belong to the team that drafted them, provided that the team tendered the player a qualifying offer at the expiry of their “Entry Level Deal.”

What’s important to note is that the 2015 and 2016 NHL Entry Draft classes were filled with high end talent that were expected to ask for large paydays come free agency. This brings us to today where many high end restricted free agents are yet to be signed and this article will focus in on three main talents who have yet to reach a deal with the team that drafted them.

Last year we saw William Nylander hold out as a RFA with the Toronto Maple Leafs. Nylander did not sign a contract until the deadline on Dec 1, and in turn did not play until then. (If he had not signed a contract by the deadline he would have been ineligible to play throughout the entire 2018-19 season.) If the RFA’s below aren’t signed to a contract, they will be in a similar spot until a deal has been reached.

  1. Brayden Point – Tampa Bay Lightning
    Our first RFA was drafted in the third round of the 2014 NHL entry draft by the Tampa Bay Lightning. After being drafted, Point spent most of the 2014-15 season with the Moose Jaw Warriors of the WHL where he posted an impress 87 points in 60 games, later joining Tampa’s AHL affiliate the Syracuse Crunch for their 2014-15 playoff push. After the Crunch were swept in the first round by the Wilkes-Barre/ Scranton Penguins, Point went back to the Warriors for the following season where he put up his most impressive WHL season by far with 88 points in just 48 games. Following the 2015-16 season, Point made the full-time jump into the NHL. However he really made a spark last season during his contract season where he scored 92 points in 79 regular season games en route to helping his team claim the Presidents’ Trophy. Point was reportedly given an offer sheet by the Montreal Canadiens, however has made clear his intentions on resigning with the Lightning, despite that no deal has been reached to this point.

    DFS Correlation: After an all-star performance during the 2018-19 season, Point proved to be a vital asset on, what was on paper, the best team in hockey. Point centered the second line alongside the eventual MVP Nikita Kucherov, also seeing Power Play time alongside Kucherov and Stamkos.

    If Tampa and Point are unable to reach a deal before the 2019-20 season begins, this could see Stamkos and Kucherov reuniting on Tampa’s top unit. If that is the case, this would provide a huge value opportunity in the second winger spot, which would most likely go to Palat but could also go to either Johnson or Gourde.
  2. Patrik Laine – Winnipeg Jets
    Taken second overall in the 2016 NHL Draft, Laine had a lot of hype coming into the league. Laine was off to a hot start as a rookie with 64 points in 73 games, despite missing eight games with a concussion. Laine was able to best the “sophmore slump” improving to 70 points in 82 games the following season. Despite taking a hit to his production in his contract year with only 50 points in 82 games, Laine was still able to record his third straight 30-goal season and will demand a hefty fee for the Jets to retain his services.

    Laine’s inconsistent production led him to being demoted from the top line partway through the 2018-19 season. This presented the opportunity of Kyle Connor to burst into the spolight on Winnipeg’s top line which poses a new problem as Connor himself is also still an RFA. The Jets are expected to keep both Connor and Laine, however, they will have to use most of their cap space to do so.

    DFS Correlation: If for whatever reason Connor is not on the opening night lineup this could present the opportunity or Laine to rejuvenate himself on Winnipeg’s top line alongside Wheeler and Scheifele. If neither Laine or Connor are signed come opening night, this would create a value spot for a player like Ehlers. This would also open up two power play spots as Laine and Connor both play on Winnipegs top unit.
  3. Mitch Marner – Toronto Maple Leafs
    The Toronto Maple Leafs have now found themselves in a similar spot to last year with the aforementioned Nylander contract. The Leafs had already extended Calder Trophy Winner Auston Matthews prior to the 2019 offseason, leaving Marner as the main priority for the Maple Leafs front office. Alongside All-Star John Tavares on the Leafs top line, Marner had a career year scoring 94 points in 82 regular season games. This placed him at 11th in the league in scoring and fourth in the league in assists. With these stats in a contract year it is no surprise that Marner is insisting on a hefty contract. Given the constraints around the Maple Leafs cap, GM Kyle Dubas has spent most of the offeseason making moves in order to afford the Marner contract. This includes, offloading both Zaitzev and Marleau’s contract.

    The chance of Marner holding out is higher than the other two RFA’s on this list and it has gotten to the point where Marner has stated that he will “probably not” participate in training camp without a contract.

    DFS Correlation: Should the Leafs enter the 2019-20 season without Marner signed to a contract, this opens up a spot alongside Tavares on the Leafs top line and a spot on the Leafs first power play unit. This could lead to players like Johnsson or Kapanen seeing ice-time on the top line. Not mention, with Hyman possibly missing the beginning of the season recovering from ACL surgery the door opens up for both Johnsson and Kapanen. When it comes to Marner’s spot on the top power play Kapanen, Nylander or Barrie could be promoted to replace him.

    There has also been speculation that Marner will be given an offer sheet from teams like the Canadiens or the Islanders, if this is the case it could lead to Marner getting signed by the Leafs quicker or it could also lead to Marner signing for a new team. (An offer sheet can be given to an RFA, in the hopes they will sign it. The team with the player’s rights then has one week to match the contract on the offer sheet. If the contract is not matched then player is signed with the new team and the team who had the rights will receive compensation in the form of draft picks. It is important to note that both holdouts and offer sheets are rare in today’s NHL.)


    Honorable Mention(s): M. Tkachuk, Rantanen

 

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Hi everyone and welcome to the first NHL DFS article here at Win Daily Sports. I am very excited for the season to get underway so we can start winning together! Before the season begins, let’s explore the strategies I employ when making DFS lineups and hopefully, you too will become a successful NHL fantasy player!

Before we take a look at methods and important statistics, we need to have an overview of how to play NHL DFS on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Both sites require you to choose nine players. On FanDuel, these are two centers, four wingers, two defensemen and a goalie with a total salary of $55,000. Whereas on DraftKings, there are two centers, three wingers, two defensemen, a goalie, and a utility player with a total salary of $50,000. Blank squads look as such.

Point breakdowns for each site are similar for the most part, but there are subtle differences that you should be aware of before building your line. Here is an analysis of each category.

Player Points FanDuel DraftKings
Shots  +1.6  +0.5
Blocked Shots  +1.6  +0.5
Goals  +12  +3
Assists  +8  +2
Power Play Points Bonus (Goals/Assists)  +0.5  —
Short Handed Points Bonus (Goals/Assists)  +2  +1
Hat Trick Bonus (3 Goals)  —  +1.5
Shootout Goals  —  +0.2

Goalie Points FanDuel DraftKings
Saves  +0.8  +0.2
Goals Against (Excludes Empty Netters)  -4  -1
Wins  +12  +3
Shutouts  +8  +2
Goals  —  +3
Assists  —  +2

GENERAL NOTES:

  • It is plausible that someone can be credited with a goal without intending to score or even without shooting the puck
  • There are a maximum of two assists on a goal and a minimum of zero
  • There are no assists on Penalty Shots.
  • In-game penalty shots will count as Goals Against for a goalie if scored but penalty shootout goals will not.
  • NHL is a late-swap sport so each player will lock when their respective game starts.
  • FanDuel is generally slower at updating player prices than DraftKings. 

NHL DFS Goalies

Goalies are the heart of any NHL DFS fantasy lineup, and more often than not they will be the difference between cashing or not. If you want to take down a GPP, a successful goalie is vital. There are some predictors to help you determine whether or not your goalie will have a good outing on any particular night. The first is whether or not the goalie is hot or cold. At an NHL level a goalie’s mental state is everything, and if they are experiencing a cold streak it is challenging to shake off even for the best goalies. That is why when choosing a goalie, it helps if they have a positive record over their previous five starts. In terms of statistics, there are two clear indicators to measure how many goals they allow per game (goals-against average or GAA) and how many shots they stop per game (save percentage or SV%). In general, it is preferable that your goalie has maintained a goals-against average below 3.00 and save percentage of at least .910 entering that game.

Probably the most essential and clear-cut factor in predicting a goalie’s success is whether or not they are favored to win and if the over/under is low. Vegas statisticians employ many different factors when they predict the success rate of any team, and more often than not, they tend to be correct. Every NHL arena is different, and some goalies feel more comfortable on a particular ice surface than others, so it is also vital to look at a goalie’s record at that specific arena, to gauge their likelihood of success. It is also important to avoid goalies if they play two days in a row since fatigue is a very important factor for predicting performance between the pipes. My final tip for NHL DFS goalies is do not be afraid to spend up at this position or even put them as the first player in your line. As mentioned earlier, the goalie is the heart of your team, and your success depends on their performance.

Furthermore, all goalies tend to be rather expensive, to begin with, due to the high upside, so there isn’t a massive jump between a stud goalie and a value goalie. For starting goalie updates I use Left Wing Lock’s Starting Goalie Tracker. They use up to the minute information to determine which goaltender is most likely to start each matchup and provide confirmation once a goalie is selected.

NHL DFS Stacking

Stacking is the strategy that is integral to success in NHL DFS. When it comes to stacking in hockey, it is much more straightforward than with most other sports. The main idea is stacking players alongside their even strength linemates. Generally, you will want to reserve two-player stacks for cash games and focus three-player stacks for GPPs since ideally if a line is in form, all three players will benefit. More often than not the winner of large-field GPPs will have two full line stacks along with two defensemen and a goalie who performed well. I like to break down my stacks into two different groups, either of which can be useful in completing your lineup.

The first is a “Top Tier” Stack, this is where the two or three players you have on the same team are on the ice at the same time at even strength, and on the power play. This is ideal since the players will maximize the amount of time they have on the ice together. The second option is a “Mid Tier” Stack, and this is where the players are on the ice together during even-strength but are not on the same power play. Do not be afraid to play mid-tier stacks, as especially with bargain stacks it is not always the case that they see power-play time together, but they could be very hot coming into the game and up against a struggling or tired goalie. Not to mention, there are some instances where a bargain player working alongside a star player during even-strength will not play on their power-play unit, but will still represent an excellent value play due to their price.

As a NHL DFS general rule any team’s top two lines would be considered the most “stackable” as they will see the bulk of the ice time, however, third line one-offs and stacks could also provide decent value under the right circumstances. Generally, stay away from fourth lines on principle, they will usually only see around 5-10 minutes of ice time per game and are most often the least talented players on their team. (There are rare occasions where fourth line one-offs may be appropriate for GPPs, such as if a fourth liner sees power play time.)

Since stacks are as vital to NHL DFS success, it is also important to be attentive to line changes and general NHL news. Line changes are usually confirmed in the team’s morning skate which takes place the day of the game. Line changes could occur for many reasons including coaching inclinations, poor/promising performance, injuries and suspensions. A cheap option could replace an injured or suspended player on a top line, which would quickly increase their value. Be sure to check line updates at dailyfaceoff.com. It is wise to check at some point in the afternoon EST after the morning skate. Most lineups should be finalized by then.

NHL DFS Defensemen

Generally speaking you want defensemen who play alongside the top two lines of favored teams and especially alongside stud players. Ideally your defensemen will see around 20 minutes of ice time per game and will appear on one of their team’s two power play units. Power play time isn’t necessary but it is definitely recommended. If you choose to punt at the defensive spot, aim to have a player that sees at the very least 15 minutes a game and plays alongside a stud defenseman. Don’t be afraid to stack defensemen and forwards together, especially if they have power play time together as any skater is a scoring threat on a power play.

Other Strategies

When looking for stacks begin by looking at which teams are in the best position to succeed on any given night then proceed to analyze which lines are most likely to perform, essentially taking a top-down approach.

Another NHL DFS strategy I like to use is recency. If someone is performing well, odds are they will continue to perform well. Much similar to how goalies in a hole tend to stay in a hole, players with the hot hand are generally prone to score in streaks.

One of the most underrated strategy’s in NHL Fantasy is targeting back-to-backs, especially when the team went into overtime or a shootout the night before. If a team has to travel after a long night they will be in a very weak position during the following game. It is an extremely underrated aspect of DFS hockey considering the impact that it has on some teams. Imagine losing a game in overtime and having to travel overnight to prepare for your next game the following day in the middle of a season. Not to mention some teams start their backup goalies on the second or first halves of a back-to-back. Use Left Wing Lock, as their goalie tracker includes a “back-to-back tracker.”

As a final piece of general NHL DFS strategy don’t roster players against your goalie, it minimizes your upside, since either the player will succeed and the goalie will take a hit or vice versa.

(Unlike other sports, every person on the bench will get ice time. Some will get more than others depending on what line they’re on and if they play on their team’s Power Play or Penalty Kill units.)

STRATEGIC NOTES: 

  • It is best to construct your lines just after noon, Eastern Standard Time since by then generally all lineups will be confirmed after morning skates and all the best contests will still be available.
  • I personally use LineStar’s implied goal totals from time to time to help me consider which team has the greatest likelihood of scoring. 
  • The best teams to target are those that have trouble on the penalty kill and my personal favorite matchups of the night are the most mismatched Power Play and Penalty Kill.
  • When it comes to personal narratives such as birthdays, playing against family, playing against a hometown team or coming back from a long absence, take it with a grain of salt.

Risk

GPP Options and Punts are beneficial in the right context. They don’t always have to be one-offs and could simply be an inexpensive player having exposure to a top talent. However, there are times where selecting a one-off can be useful as their price allows you to fill your NHL DFS lines with the talent you are looking for. My favorite one-offs would be at the defensive position since a lot of their point production is not reliant on the play from others, and they could record points individually, mainly through blocked shots. (Blocking shots shouldn’t be a sole reason to select a defenseman as generally, you’d want all your players to hold scoring upside. However, it is minor stats such as shots and blocked shots that can save your line. On FanDuel, eight shots/blocked shots are worth more than a goal, and on DraftKings, six shots/blocked shots are equal to an assist.)

Punts could also be recently promoted players such as third liners who were promoted to the second line, AHL callups who were performing well, third/fourth liners who see power play time or cheap players who play alongside top performers. GPP punts aren’t necessary for a takedown but sometimes they can provide the necessary edge that will separate you from the rest of the pack.

Advanced Analysis

The final important factors to consider are advanced statistics. Generally, it is the upfront factors such as current player performance or playing alongside top tier talent that is most significant. However, advanced statistics can sometimes reveal flaws in players that could seem ideal at first glance. There are five advanced statistics that I rely on the most when constructing my lineups for any given slate. The first two predict a player’s production in the offensive zone and how productive his team is in general while he is on the ice, and the third gauges overall player performance. The fourth represents a player’s luck on the ice and the last advanced stat represents how often team creates high-danger chances.

The offensive production stats I use are Corsi, which is the measures the differential between offensive shot attempts (shots on goal, missed shots and blocked shots) with defensive shot attempts while that player is on the ice. A top-level player generally has a Corsi above 55% and a Corsi above 50% represents positive offensive production. Fenwick, which is similar to Corsi, insofar as Fenwick disregards blocked shots in its analysis and only focuses on “unblocked shot” attempts. Often the numbers are very similar, but these subtle differences could be pivotal in-game.

The third advanced statistic I use is an all-around stat developed by Corsica hockey known as a Player Rating. Corsica hockey boiled down many different advanced statistics into a single Player Rating through the use of model NHL DFS stacking (or in this case statistical stacking).

The fourth advanced stat I generally take with a grain of salt, but one I consider nonetheless, is PDO, which is a team’s shooting percentage and save percentage merged together in one stat to predict a player’s overall luck. Hockey is one of the most luck-based DFS sports so it is stats such as PDO which can be used as predictors to determine on-ice luck. The higher above 100 a player is, the luckier they are.

The final advanced statistic I consider before creating my lineups are HDSCF/A (High-Danger Scoring Chances For/Against). This represents the amount of dangerous chances that are taken either for or against their team while they are on the ice. A “High-Danger” chance is either a one-timer, a rebound or shots from the slot, which is the area directly in front of the goaltender and in-between both offensive face-off circles.

I generally use hockey-reference.com for PDO, naturalstattrick.com for Corsi, HDSCF/A and Fenwick and corsicahockey.com for player ratings.

Thank you for taking the time to look over this strategy guide, and I hope it will lead to a very prosperous NHL DFS season for you.

 

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