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NFL DFS: London Showdown Edition

Daniel Wehr 5 years ago

written by Daniel Wehr

This report will provide plays for the Week-Six NFL DFS London Showdown slate. I will break down the top fantasy players to consider.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers

O/U: 47 (CAR -2)

NFL DFS: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Forget about everything that happened the first time these teams faced each other in Week Two. The Buccaneers managed to shut down Christian McCaffrey on that Thursday night game. Tampa ranks in the top five in terms of run stopping. They allow just over three yards per carry and have held opponents to an average of 70 yards over their last three.

Chris Godwin draws a favorable matchup, just as he did in Week Two. He had over 120 receiving yards on eight receptions and a TD in their first outing. If I’m going to employ Tampa it would be through the passing game. I’m fine with Jameis Winston, Evans, and Godwin all in the flex positions. This doesn’t change the fact of how bad their offensive line is. Tampa has allowed 18 sacks on the year (27th) and are facing a Panthers defense who are firing on all cylinders. They have 20 sacks on the year (Third most).

NFL DFS: Carolina Panthers

I think I made it abundantly clear that most of my interest in this game falls on the Panthers side. Christian McCaffrey, my MVP pick going into the season, is having exactly that kind of season. He leads the league with 587 yards on the ground, 279 through the air, and seven TD’s.

I do acknowledge that Tampa has a good run defense. In Week Two, the Panthers were coming off a short week where McCaffrey saw nearly 30 touches and Cam Newton had been dealing with a foot injury, he was essentially ineffective in that game. Now the Panthers have Kyle Allen under center who has won three games straight and has put the Panthers in a position to take charge of the NFC South with a win this Sunday. Top it off with the fact that Panthers are coming off of a BYE week so they are well rested and prepared for this long trip to London.

NFL DFS: DraftKings Approach

NFL DFS Captain:

Preferred: Panthers DST ($7200), Kyle Allen ($13,800), Christian McCaffrey ($19,500), Hedge: Chris Godwin ($15,600), Jameis Winston ($15,900). All in Captain consideration can be used in flex.

NFL DFS Flex:

Greg Olsen ($6,800), DJ Moore ($8,800), Peyton Barber ($5,000), Joey Slye (3,600), Mike Evans ($9,800), Curtis Samuel ($7200)

NFL DFS: FanDuel Approach

NFL DFS MVP:

Christian McCaffrey ($17,500)

NFL DFS Flex:

DJ Moore ($11,000), Curtis Samuel (8,000), Greg Olsen ($8,500), Joey Slye ($9,500), Chris Godwin ($14,500), Jameis Winston ($15,500), Mike Evans ($12,500).

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5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS: Week Five MNF Showdown Guide and Podcast

Daniel Wehr 5 years ago

written by Daniel Wehr

This report will provide plays for the NFL DFS Monday Night Football slate. I will break down the top fantasy players to consider.

PODCAST: The King and DFS Pro Dan break down the MNF Showdown field

Cleveland Browns vs. San Francisco 49ers

O/U: 47.5 (SFO -5)

NFL DFS: Cleveland Browns

The Browns head to San Francisco to take on the second best defense in the NFL through four games this season.They have sputtered on offense for the most part outside of their prime time game against the lowly Jets and a struggling Ravens defense. The Browns have an offensive DVOA of -8.5% (below league average), and a defensive DVOA of -9.1% (above league average). Overall they rank 14th in the league with a 5.6% DVOA. With Cleveland’s passing game ranking 25th in terms of DVOA and SFO’s defense ranking second, I can see this creating a run funnel in a game where both teams try to control the clock by running the football. If San Francisco is able to pull ahead and Cleveland is forced to abandon the run, Baker and Company could be in for a very long Monday Night.

NFL DFS: San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers are coming fresh off of a bye week after starting the season out 3-0. Through those first three weeks, the 49er’s have the second best defense in the league per their -35.9% DVOA (35.9% better than league average), second only to the Patriots. Their pass rush has been nothing short of amazing, and even though they don’t have an elite secondary, the defensive line is so good it makes those guys look like studs. I also expect a run funnel effect for the 49ers as well. Jimmy Garoppolo has struggled in passing schemes and Cleveland ranks in the top 10 in terms of passing yards allowed per game (215). San Francisco has a very crowded back-field with Tevin Coleman back in the lineup, but I still think Matt Breida should see a bulk of the work, followed by Raheem Mostert.

NFL DFS: DraftKings Approach

NFL DFS Captain:

Nick Chubb ($15,300), Jimmy Garoppolo ($14,700) Matt Breida ($10,200), Jarvis Landry ($10,800), Deebo Samuel ($9,900), Odell Beckham Jr. ($13,500).

NFL DFS Flex:

49ers DST ($4,600), Raheem Mostert ($5,400), Odell Beckham Jr. ($10,400), Robbie Gould (3,800), Austin Seibert ($3,600), George Kittle ($9,000), Jimmy Garoppolo ($9,800), Dante Pettis ($3400)

NFL DFS: FanDuel Approach

NFL DFS MVP:

Nick Chubb ($15,000), Odell Beckham Jr. ($13,500) Jimmy Garoppolo ($14,000), Jarvis Landry ($12,000).

NFL DFS Flex:

(All plays at MVP can be used in flex) Matt Breida ($11,500), George Kittle ($11,000), Raheem Mostert ($10,000), Deebo Samuel ($8,000), Dante Pettis ($6,000), Robbie Gould ($9,500).

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NFL Week 5 DFS: Main Slate Preview

adam.sardinha1@gmail.com 5 years ago

written by adam.sardinha1@gmail.com

Are you ready for Week 5 DFS? We are a quarter of a way through the season and we finally have a nice sample size to work with. We will go through each matchup game-by-game in the main slate, and I will give my best buys and fades via DraftKings prices.

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Early Games

Cardinals at Bengals

Quarterback Kyler Murray is set up for success in Week 5 against the Bengals. He is priced at $6,300 on DraftKings, because of the great matchup. The Bengals have allowed at least 16 fantasy points to all quarterbacks they have faced this season, along with multiple touchdowns passes to three quarterbacks in four games. There is also rushing upside for Murray versus the Bengals. They allowed 46 rushing yards to Josh Allen in Week 3 on nine rushing attempts. Murray has rushed for 96 yards in the last two weeks. In GPPs you can stack Murray with David Johnson ($7,500). With no Christian Kirk in this game, Johnson should see even more volume in the passing game. Luckily for him the Bengals are allowing the most receptions to the running back position.

On the Bengals side, wide receiver Auden Tate is going to be the chalk low-priced receiver at just $3,500. He has seen 14 targets over the past two weeks and has led the Bengals in receptions and receiving yards over the same time span. With John Ross placed on injured reserve, Tate should see even more opportunities to produce against a very weak Arizona secondary. Both defenses are also in play. Both of them rank at the bottom of the league in terms of quarterback sacks allowed. I slightly favor the Bengals at $2,500.

Ravens at Steelers

Via Pro Football Focus, 68.2% of Mason Rudolph’s passing yards have come from yards after the catch. That percentage is by far the highest in the NFL. Something like that is usually not sustainable except in this case versus the Ravens. They have allowed the most yards after the catch to receivers. Marlon Humphrey shut down Odell Beckham Jr. last week, but that was with him playing on the outside. JuJu Smith-Schuster ($6,400) should primarily remain in the slot, giving him some sneaky bounce-back appeal at low ownership. Smith-Schuster ranks fourth in the NFL in yards after the catch (8.1).

DraftKings continues to undervalue Mark Andrews. He is priced at just $4,800 despite the fact that he has seen at least seven targets in every single game this season. His target market share of the Ravens’ offense is at 23.53%, which ranks Top Five at the position.

Falcons at Texans

This is going to be a great game to stack for DFS in Week 5. It combines two high-powered offenses with two bad defenses. Deshaun Watson (at $6,700) deserves consideration in cash games with his rushing floor and Matt Ryan (at $5,900) is a player to get exposure to in GPPs. This game also seems like a great get-right matchup for receivers that have struggled thus far. This includes guys like Julio Jones ($7,700), Calvin Ridley ($4,900), DeAndre Hopkins ($7,800), and Will Fuller ($4,500), who has the most air yards of any receiver who does not have a touchdown reception. The Texans also have the third-highest implied team total on the slate, making their lead running back Carlos Hyde (at $4,300) a good value. The Falcons have allowed the fourth-most rushing attempts to the running back position and have allowed the most rushing touchdowns on the road this season.

https://twitter.com/DBro_FFB/status/1179088611876192256

Bills at Titans

The Tennesse Titans DST ($3,000) and Derrick Henry ($6,000) are both great plays on DraftKings in Week 5. The Titans are favorites at home against the Buffalo Bills, who will have either turnover-prone Josh Allen or backup Matt Barkley starting at quarterback. The Titans have not allowed more than 20 points yet this season and have totaled 13 sacks. Henry ranks third in the NFL in team market share of carries and is getting starting left tackle Taylor Lewan back in the starting lineup.

The only players on the Bills to consider are a few of their receivers. John Brown ($5,100), Cole Beasley ($4,600), and Dawson Knox ($3,100) are all in play. Brown is going to be covered by Malcolm Butler, who has allowed the fifth most-yards in coverage this season. Beasley and Knox should see the majority of underneath targets. If the Titans shut down the long ball, that will funnel the passing game to those two players. We saw it last week when Austin Hooper and Mohamed Sanu combined for 23 targets when they faced the Titans.

Bears at Raiders (London)

Outside of the DST at $3,800, the only other Bears to consider are their running backs. Both David Montgomery ($5,200) and Tarik Cohen ($4,800) have interesting appeal in Week 5. In three games with the backup quarterback, Chase Daniel, Cohen has totaled 27 targets. Montgomery could be the greatest beneficiary of a positive game script if the Bears get up early on the Raiders. He has seen an increased workload every single week this season and that trend should continue in Week 5. Keep an eye on the status of running back Mike Davis. He was a healthy scratch last week.

https://twitter.com/Ihartitz/status/1179491356542210050

For the Raiders, the only viable play here is tight end Darren Waller at $5,000. He is commanding 30% of targets in the offense, which is fourth-highest in the NFL of all players and he has still not scored a touchdown. Regression to the mean clearly shows that Waller is going to see the endzone sooner rather than later.

Jaguars at Panthers

The best-valued defense on the slate is definitely the Panthers DST at $2,600. They have scored double-digit fantasy points for three straight weeks and have 17 sacks over that time span. Jaguars’ quarterback Gardner Minshew was sacked five times last week. Also, you will want to keep tabs on the status of Jalen Ramsey. If Ramsey misses the game on Sunday, that would be a huge boost for both Curtis Samuel at $4,500 and D.J. Moore at $5,200. Without Ramsey last week both of the top receivers for the Denver Broncos scored 18 and 24 fantasy points, respectively.

For Jacksonville, the only player to focus on is Leonard Fournette at $6,400. He still has not scored a touchdown yet this season and that trend is going to end soon. The amount of touches Fournette is seeing is just too many for him to have not scored. He is seeing over 90% of the running workload and 20% in the passing game. Fournette has 96 total touches this season, which translates to 24 per game. At this rate, it is just a matter of time until Fournette finds the end zone.

Vikings at Giants

Kirk Cousins (at $5,300) and Adam Thielen (at $6,700) is a stack that needs to be considered in GPPs in Week 5. All the talks throughout the week have been about doing more in the passing game. Specifically, Cousins also apologized for not getting Thielen the ball enough. This could easily be a huge blowup spot for them in this matchup versus the Giants. New York ranks fourth-worst against the wide receiver position and seventh-worst against the quarterback position in fantasy points allowed.

I am fading Wayne Gallman versus this stout Minnesota defense. They have allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to running backs this year. His fantasy points were heavily inflated by touchdowns last week. The Vikings have allowed just one rushing touchdown to running backs.

Buccaneers at Saints

Tight end Jared Cook (at $3,400) is a sneaky play in Week 5. Right now quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is not forcing the ball downfield, but against Tampa Bay, the Saints may be forced to be more aggressive. According to Sports Info Solutions, the Buccaneers’ DVOA against short passes ranks seventh-best, whereas against deep passes it falls to 18th. Cook is coming off his highest target total of the season (six) and the Buccaneers have allowed the second-most fantasy points to the tight end position. Cook owns the second-highest average depth of target on the Saints.

I am not so sure I am buying into the Tampa Bay offense in Week 5. Jameis Winston (at $6,200) is the fifth-highest priced quarterback on the slate but has never played well versus the Saints. He has never thrown for more than two touchdowns in seven career games versus New Orleans. He has only thrown for 300 yards once against them.

Patriots at Redskins

Another week for the Patriots and once again via the FanDuel Sportsbook they are favored by more than 15 points. So what does this mean for the offense in terms of DFS? Well, I think you can trust Tom Brady at $6,500. The Redskins defense is just bad. They have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to the quarterback position this season. I’m not even sure you need to stack Brady with anyone in cash. For GPPs, I like stacking Brady with Josh Gordon at $6,100 against the Redskins, who are the second-worst team versus wide receivers. Sony Michel ($5,500) is a nice GPP play for those that want to pivot off the Patriots’ passing game. If you decide to build a Patriots stack, the play back is tight end Jeremy Sprinkle at $2,500. Starting tight end Vernon Davis is currently in the concussion protocol and could easily miss the game on Sunday.

Jets at Eagles

Quarterback Carson Wentz (at $6,100) is a lock across cash game lineups. The Jets’ secondary is very bad and Wentz should be able to take full advantage of them. Wentz has scored at least 19.54 fantasy points in every single game this season. A Wentz to Zach Ertz ($6,000) stack is also definitely in play in GPPs. Ertz has at least seven targets in every game this season, but like Darren Waller has not scored a touchdown yet. He should see the end zone on Sunday. There’s also a chance that some New York receivers find the end zone on Sunday.

The Eagles have allowed the most fantasy points to the wide receiver position this season. For that reason, Robby Anderson ($4,500) and Jamison Crowder ($4,300) are both in play as cheap value receivers.

Late Games

Broncos at Chargers

I love playing Austin Ekeler at $6,700 this week. The Broncos defense gave up over 200 rushing yards to Leonard Fournette last week, and until we see the true split with Ekeler and Melvin Gordon I will continue to go back to Ekeler. I understand fading him in cash formats, but in GPPs Ekeler is a lock for me.

Cornerback Casey Heyward projects to shadow cover Courtland Sutton ($4,900) making Emmanuel Sanders ($5,100) the better pivot play despite the slightly higher salary. Tight end Noah Fant (at $2,800), is another interesting punt play option. His snap rate increased to 73% in Week 4. He has seen at least four targets and had 29 receiving yards in every single game this season. The Chargers have allowed the second-most touchdowns to the tight end position.

Packers at Cowboys

Jaire Alexander is emerging as a top cornerback, but he does not shadow cover the opponent’s best wide receiver. 70% of his coverage has been out wide at the left cornerback position. Amari Cooper ($6,800) has played at the right receiver position just 42% of the time. After a disappointing Week 4, people will be off Cooper, especially with more being drawn in towards Ezekiel Elliott (at $8,300) in his matchup versus the league’s third-worst defense in terms of fantasy points allowed to running backs. The sharp move is to play them both in GPPs along with quarterback Dak Prescott at $6,000 for the trio Cowboys stack.

I really like Aaron Jones ($5,900) in tournaments if Jamaal Williams does not play in the game. With Davante Adams likely to also be held out of the game due to a turf toe injury, look for the Packers to utilize more of the running game. Jones should see plenty of volume as both a rusher and receiver. Also, possible sleeper WR Jake Kumerow at $3,800 in mind to see an increased snap share if Adams is inactive on Sunday.

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5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS Cash Games – Week Five Checkdown (DraftKings)

StixPicks 5 years ago

written by StixPicks

Week Four was another great week for NFL DFS Cash Games at Win Daily Sports. Feel free to review last week’s Checkdown to see what players we were high on, including the top scoring Running Back, Nick Chubb… at extremely low ownership! Let’s get right back to it for the Week Five Checkdown for your NFL DFS Cash Games.

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My articles will be mainly meant for DraftKings, but you can certainly use this information for other DFS websites. Please check back in on Saturday/Sunday morning for potential NFL DFS Cash Games updates.

If you have any questions and would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. I’m always available to help NFL DFS players make the most of their investments.

I wanted to start something new this week to quickly point out what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week Five, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

I don’t anticipate there being any crazy chalky players that you have to roster in cash games this week. It’s a rather wide open slate.
Standard to what I’ve been doing the past couple of weeks, I will be paying down at the quarterback position in Week Five.
There is not a whole lot of “value” or “punt” plays at the running back spot like there have been in weeks prior. You’re going to need a top-tier running back (or two) in Week Five NFL DFS Cash Games.
Tons of great plays at the wide receiver position – I don’t think you have to focus on any one player here when building your cash lineups.

NFL DFS Cash Games Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson ($7,100) – At first glance, I had no interest in including Lamar Jackson into this article due to the fact this matchup against the Steelers has an alarmingly low total of ~42 points. To me, that calls for a slow-paced, run-focused gamescript for both teams that we would usually avoid.

Lamar is the most expensive quarterback on the slate but he is also the only quarterback who is averaging 60+ rushing yards a game. Jackson always provides an excellent floor for DFS players.
Tom Brady ($6,500) – The way to beat the Washington Redskins is through the air. Brady should have a top-five fantasy performance in Week Five.
Kyler Murray ($6,300) – I’m not sure either defense can get a stop in the battle of the winless Bengals and Cardinals. Murray should be in line for his biggest fantasy performance to date in what is by far the softest matchup of his young career.
Andy Dalton ($5,700) – We will continue to pick on the Arizona Cardinals’ defense. Dalton is at home, extremely affordable, and is averaging over 40 passing attempts per game in Zac Taylor’s offense. Dalton is my favorite quarterback play for NFL DFS Cash Games in Week Five.
Chase Daniel ($4,800) – Mitch Trubisky dislocated his shoulder in Week Four and will not play in London against the Raiders next Sunday. When Daniel entered the game, he looked very in tune with this offense and may have even looked better than Trubisky this season so far. Against the Raiders, I have no problem if you want to use Daniel with this minimal price tag.

NFL DFS Cash Games Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey ($8,800) – Christian McCaffrey is always cash game viable. On paper, this is his hardest matchup of the year, but he appears to be matchup proof.
Dalvin Cook ($8,400) – His usage his beyond belief. No need to talk a lot about Dalvin Cook, he should be the Vikings’ top option on offense against a weak Giants’ team.
Ezekiel Elliott ($8,300) – Elliott is probably going to be the highest owned running back on the slate and for good reason. Green Bay continues to get carved up by opposing running backs and this week they face the best one in the NFL. Keep in mind, Tyron Smith will miss this game, so Elliott’s production is likely going to take a bit of a hit.
David Johnson ($7,500) – David Johnson’s usage in the passing game continues to increase each week (11 targets in Week Four and 99 yards receiving) and the Cincinatti Bengals are allowing the 3rd most receptions per game to opposing running backs. At this point, David Johnson is a fantasy wide receiver who also gets carries in the red-zone. He is a very valuable fantasy asset in PPR formats like DraftKings.
Le’Veon Bell ($6,800) – Do the Jets have any other offensive weapons? The Philadelphia run defense has been very respectable but with the lack of other playmakers in New York, Le’Veon Bell should be a lock for 25+ touches in Week Five. At the price, I’m quite interested in Le’Veon Bell for cash games.
Joe Mixon ($6,100) – Excellent price. Excellent matchup. I love picking on all aspects of the Arizona Cardinals’ defense. I know on DraftKings you’ll see the scary red font showing “OPRK 8th“, but this is 100% a matchup DFS players should take advantage of. Arizona simply cannot stop the run.

My early projections are finally calling for a 20-touch game by Joe Mixon – he will feast against a defense that has given up 268 rushing yards and two scores to opposing running backs over the past two weeks.
Aaron Jones ($5,900) – Dallas has been tough against the run but they are allowing an average of over six receptions per game to opposing running backs. Assuming Jamaal Williams misses this game (due to injury in Week Four), Aaron Jones is in line for a heavy workload both running and receiving. He’s a nice value play that I don’t think many DFS players will be on this week.
Chris Thompson ($4,600) – Chris Thompson has gotten to double digit DraftKings points in every game this season and he has yet to find the end-zone. We don’t have to go crazy with any analysis of Chris Thompson here. Washington is going to be at least a 15-point underdog in Week Five against New England. The Redskins will be playing from behind for the majority (if not all) of this game and that will lead to a 60%+ offensive snap count for Thompson. He looks to be the only true “pay-down” spot at the running back position for Week Five NFL DFS Cash Games.

Wide Receivers

DeAndre Hopkins ($7,800) – Hopkins is absolutely due for a blowup performance as he hasn’t topped 70 receiving yards since Week One. Vegas is showing a total of 49 points for this matchup against the Falcons – which is currently the highest on the board. Houston is at home and has to right the ship here against a beat-up Atlanta secondary that was just destroyed at home by Marcus Mariota and the Tennessee Titans. Hopkins will get back to form in Week Five.
Chris Godwin ($6,900) – I’m not even going to touch on the career day Godwin just had against the Rams. Godwin will see Saints’ Cornerback, P.J. Williams for most of the day on Sunday and that is all you need to know. His price is high, but his matchup against Williams is ELITE.
Adam Thielen ($6,700) – May have the best matchup in the write-up against a putrid Giants’ secondary. He will see a lot of DeAndre Baker (who may be the worst corner in the NFL), but I’d rather see Thielen go back to the slot more often (where he has done the most damage throughout his career). Regardless, this is a great spot for Thielen.
Michael Thomas ($6,600) – Chris Godwin is more expensive than Michael Thomas? If you would have told me that at any time this year Godwin’s price would be higher than Thomas’, I would say that you lost your mind – Yet, here we are. With or without Drew Brees, Thomas continues to provide a high floor for DFS players and everyone is destroying the Tampa Bay secondary, so play Thomas with confidence.
Tyler Boyd ($6,500) – If we love Andy Dalton this week, we obviously love his top option in the passing game who is seeing 10+ targets on a weekly basis. Boyd should have his way with this Arizona secondary.
Allen Robinson ($5,600) – When re-watching the Bears Week Four game against the Vikings, it was clear to me that Chase Daniel trusts Allen Robinson over any other pass catcher on the team. Daniel seemed to have tunnel vision towards Allen Robinson on 75% of the routes he ran and was his first read anytime Daniel and the Bears needed to move the ball via the pass.

Robinson and Daniel should have a lot of fun together in London against a Raiders’ secondary who really struggles against top-tier wide receivers like Allen Robinson.
Courtland Sutton ($4,900) – Sutton is one of my favorite wide receivers in the NFL. He is quietly putting together a helluva season and should continue to make plays in Week Five, despite having an inept quarterback like Joe Flacco. Sutton is responsible for over a 20% target share in the Broncos’ passing attack and leads the team in air yards by a significant margin.

Courtland Sutton is an excellent route runner, he catches everything, and he happens to be leading the NFL in ~~passing yards per attempt~~ in their last three games (since Drew Brees got injured). If you have to save salary to roster more top-tier players elsewhere, I don’t think Ginn will kill your chances at crossing the pay-line, but I’d advise you to just stick with Sanu for your low-priced wideout in NFL DFS Cash Games.

Tight Ends

Zach Ertz ($6,000) – He is the only tight end on the slate that is guaranteed to see 10+ targets and his price is affordable if you use some of the value options mentioned above.
Evan Engram ($5,800) – I know that most of his production is inflated by that long touchdown he had in Week Three at Tampa Bay, but Evan Engram is the best receiving option Daniel Jones has to throw to. For some reason, I think the Vikings get back on track this week and put up points at will against this Giants’ so-called defense (although I’m not confident enough to include any Vikings pass catchers in this write-up, but having said that, Diggs and Thielen are definitely in play for me this week).

If the Vikings get back into form, the Giants will be chasing points early and Gallman will get shut down. If that happens, the Giants will have to rely on Evan Engram to anchor this passing attack.
Darren Waller ($5,000) – Incredible price for the best receiver on the Raiders’ offense (sorry to those who love Tyrell Williams). It looks like the floor of 10+ points will be there week in, week out for Waller. Continue to put Waller in your DFS lineups with confidence. This is not an ideal matchup for Waller, but the price warrants him to be considered in cash builds.
Mark Andrews ($4,800) – I mentioned earlier my concerns with the anticipated gamescript for this Ravens @ Steelers game, but my Mark Andrews faith is still in tact. Lamar Jackson loves throwing his way in the red-zone and I love Andrews’ chances of getting in the end-zone yet again in Week Five.

Andrews has never played more than 55% of the offensive snaps for Baltimore, but when he is out there, he is running routes. Andrews is currently leading the Ravens is targets so we do not need to panic on the lack of snaps.
Austin Hooper ($4,500) – No one is talking about Hooper, but we have to start considering him in DFS. Offensive Coordinator, Dirk Koetter made in known prior to this season that he loves to get his tight ends involved, and that is certainly playing true so far in 2019. Hooper is coming off of two monster performances but faces a Houston defense that has been extremely stingy to opposing tight ends.
O.J. Howard ($3,900) – If you choose to punt at the tight end position, Howard would be my only recommendation, but I don’t advise it.

Defense/Special Teams

New England Patriots ($4,300)
Chicago Bears ($3,800)
Minnesota Vikings ($3,200)
Tennessee Titans ($3,000)
Los Angeles Chargers ($2,700)
Carolina Panthers ($2,500)

NFL DFS Cash Games – Sample Lineup

QB: Chase Daniel
RB: Ezekiel Elliott
RB: Le’Veon Bell
WR: Chris Godwin
WR: Michael Thomas
WR: Mohamed Sanu
TE: Mark Andrews
FLEX: Chris Thompson
DST: Tennessee Titans

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS: Week Four MNF Showdown Guide and Podcast

Daniel Wehr 5 years ago

written by Daniel Wehr

This report will provide plays for the NFL DFS Monday Night Football slate. I will break down the top fantasy players to consider.

PODCAST: The King and Dan Wehr break down Bengals-Steelers from DFS Perspectives

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

O/U: 44.5 (PIT -3.5)

The Cincinnati Bengals will travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers in an AFC North tilt that will determine the sole bottom feeder of the division. Both teams have been horrendous on defense through their first three games. The Bengals defense has struggled against the run, allowing over 168 yards per game, only second worst to the Miami Dolphins. The Steelers aren’t far behind, allowing runners to average 139 yards on the ground. I try be fair when weighing these averages early in the season, but Pittsburgh is allowing starting running backs over five yards per carry.

Pittsburgh has also struggled with pass defense. They allow an average of over 300 yards through the air. Only Tampa Bay and Philadelphia allow more than the Steelers. Despite Pittsburgh’s woes on defense, they still have a turnover margin of +3, which is sixth best in the league (four of those takeaways come from SF). Cincy hasn’t been quite as bad defending in terms of yards per game (237) but still have allowed six TD’s in the red zone through the air.

Given both teams struggles I expect the Steelers to emphasize establishing the run game with James Conner. Pittsburgh is top five in terms of pass protection per their 2.5% adjusted sack rate. If they are able to get things going with Conner (which they should) I can see this opening things up for Mason Rudolph in the pass with good matchups for JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson, and new TE addition Nick Vannett. Likewise for the Bengals, who have struggled immensely on the ground. They are averaging only 2.50 yards per carry and will look to Joe Mixon to get things going in order to open up more opportunities in the passing game.

NFL DFS: DraftKings Approach

NFL DFS Captain:

James Conner ($15,900), Joe Mixon ($13,200), Tyler Boyd ($13,800), and JuJu Smith-Schuster ($15,600).

NFL DFS Flex:

James Conner ($10,600), Joe Mixon ($8,800), Tyler Boyd ($9,200), JuJu Smith-Schuster (10,400), Andy Dalton ($9,800), Mason Rudolph ($9,600), Diontae Johnson ($6,600), Nick Vannett ($4,200), Tyler Eifert ($5,200), Pittsburgh DST ($4,600)

My favorite approach on DraftKings is Joe Mixon at the Captain spot and pairing him up with Andy Dalton in the flex.

NFL DFS: FanDuel Approach

NFL DFS MVP:

Andy Dalton ($15,000), JuJu Smith-Schuster ($13,500) James Conner ($12,000), Joe Mixon ($12,500), and Tyler Boyd ($13,000).

NFL DFS Flex:

(All plays at MVP can be used in flex) Diontae Johnson ($8,500), Nick Vannett ($6,500), James Washington ($6,500), Tyler Eifert ($7500), Chris Boswell ($10,000).

My favorite approach on FanDuel is running Andy Dalton in the MVP spot and pairing him up with Tyler Boyd in the flex.

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NFL

NFL DFS: Week Three MNF Showdown Guide and Podcast

Daniel Wehr 5 years ago

written by Daniel Wehr

This report will provide plays for the NFL DFS Monday Night Football slate. I will break down the top fantasy players to consider.

PODCAST: Learning from the Big Winners and MNF Showdown with The King and Dan Wehr

Chicago Bears vs. Washington Redskins

O/U: 41.5 (CHI -4.5)

The Chicago Bears travel to Landover, MD to take on the Washington Redskins. Jonathan Allen will be rejoining the Redskins defense after going down with a knee injury in Week One. The Redskins defense has been picked apart their first two weeks, surrendering an average of 455 yards per game with 168 yards of that being on the ground. Carson Wentz and Dak Prescott were both in tune with hitting their short and intermediate passes against the Redskins and allowed them to take deep shots downfield.

I do not believe tonight is the night for a Bears offensive outbreak, but I think Trubisky is in a better spot than he was in Weeks One and Two. The Redskins defense has only 20 QB pressures and two sacks and even with Jonathan Allen back, he is not 100% and I question his effectiveness in the pass rush. The Bears have struggled with offensive play calling with 42% of all passes going to the RB position. I believe NFL defenses have figured out Matt Nagy’s offensive system. He vowed earlier in the year to not use Tarik Cohen as he did last year, but this still remains to be seen.

Cohen has a 60% snap share and 15 receptions in 2019 compared to his 50% snap share in 2018. This is why I believe the intermediate passes are so crucial in tonight’s game. If the Bears can get away from the predictable dump off passes to their running backs and utilize the talent they have at receiver they should see better game flow and ultimately more scoring.

NFL DFS: DraftKings Approach

NFL DFS Captain:

Allen Robinson ($14,700), Mitch Trubisky ($15,600), Bears DST ($9,300), and Tarik Cohen ($10,200).

NFL DFS Flex:

Mitch Trubisky ($10,400), David Montgomery ($9,400), Bears DST ($1,600), Taylor Gabriel ($4,400), Trey Burton ($6,000), Terry McLaurin ($8,600), Chris Thompson ($7,400), Tarik Cohen ($6,800), Paul Richardson Jr. ($5,000)

My favorite approach on Draftkings is Allen Robinson at the Captain spot and pairing him up with Mitch Trubisky in the flex. I will have minimal Redskins in my single entry lineup.

NFL DFS: FanDuel Approach

NFL DFS MVP:

Mitch Trubisky ($14,500), Allen Robinson ($13,000), David Montgomery ($12,500), and Tarik Cohen ($9,500).

NFL DFS Flex:

(All plays at MVP can be used in flex) Taylor Gabriel ($6,500), Trey Burton ($6,000), Terry McLaurin ($13,500), Paul Richarson Jr. ($8000), Dustin Hopkins ($9,500).

My favorite approach on Fanduel is Mitch Trubisky at the MVP spot and pairing him up with Allen Robinson in the flex.

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NFL

NFL DFS: Week Two Monday Night Football Showdown Guide

Daniel Wehr 5 years ago

written by Daniel Wehr

This report will provide plays for the NFL DFS Monday Night Football slate. I will break down the top fantasy players to consider.

Cleveland Browns vs. New York Jets

O/U: 45.5 (CLE -2.5)

After a disappointing Week One home opener against the Titans, the Browns look to rebound on the road against the New York Jets who will be without quarterback Sam Darnold due to illness. The Browns allowed 125 yards on the ground and 248 through the air in Week One. The Titans showed us how ineffective Baker Mayfield can be if defenses are able to pressure him and force him to make throws he normally wouldn’t.

I cannot see the Jets replicating what the Titans did. C.J. Mosley has already been ruled out for tonight’s game and that leaves a gaping hole in the middle of the Jets run defense and pass rush. Le’Veon Bell is also questionable with a shoulder injury, but media outlets suggest he should play tonight. Assuming he plays, I have to imagine he will carry a ton of usage as the Jets do not have a lot of offensive talent outside of Bell. If the Browns can execute their game plan and contain Bell the Jets offense could be in for a long night It is worth noting that Demaryius Thomas and Trevor Siemian played together in Denver. Thomas is also listed as questionable, and he definitely isn’t the same player he was in 2017.

NFL DFS: DraftKings Approach

One of the key differences between DK and FD is the salary is 1.5 times more expensive at the Captain position on DK. I will provide some core options at both Captain and Flex positions.

My main approach with single games is game scripting. It takes out a lot out of the guesswork and gives you a foundation when building your lineups. In tonight’s matchup we have a 45.5 O/U with the Browns being favored by -2.5 points. Suggested low scoring on both sides and a close spread almost always puts kickers into play for me. All players in consideration at the Captain position can also be used in the Flex player pool.

Captain: Nick Chubb ($15,000), Le’veon Bell ($17,400), Odell Beckham Jr. ($17,700), and Jarvis Landry ($13,500).

Flex: Austin Seibert ($3400), Sam Ficken ($3200), Ty Montgomery ($1600), David Njoku ($5800), Jamison Crowder ($8000), Robbie Anderson ($7000), Demaryius Thomas ($3800), and Trevor Siemian ($8200)

NFL DFS: FanDuel Approach

FanDuel does not hit us with a salary penalty for their MVP spot so we can choose the player who we believe can score the most raw points at that slot. All players in consideration at the MVP position can also be used in the Flex player pool.

MVP: Nick Chubb ($13,000), Baker Mayfield ($15,000), Le’veon Bell ($15,500), Odell Beckham Jr. ($14,000)

Flex: Trevor Siemian ($12,500), Demaryius Thomas ($6500), Jarvis Landry ($12,500), Austin Seibert ($8,500), Sam Ficken ($9,000), David Njoku ($10,500), and Jamison Crowder ($12,000).

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Daily Fantasy Sports NFL

NFL Season Week 2 DFS: Main Slate Preview

Antonio D'Arcangelis 5 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

It is time to move on to Week 2 DFS. Now we finally have some data to build off of! We will go through each matchup game by game, and I will give my best buys and fades.

WEEK TWO VIDEO PREVIEW with Matt Striker, The King and Jason Mezrahi

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections,
weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more! Get started today! And don’t forget to check out the cheat sheet!

MINNESOTA AT GREEN BAY

Talk about a potential snoozefest for Week 2 DFS. According to FanDuel Sportsbook, this game is slated for a total of 44 points with the Packers -3. Neither quarterback is in a desirable spot for cash games, but Aaron Rodgers ($6,500) is in an interesting spot as a GPP play because he will garner low-ownership percentage. In Rodgers’ last two starts at home against the Vikings, he’s thrown five touchdowns and averaged 314 passing yards. In those two games, both Davante Adams ($7,700) and Geronimo Allison ($4,400) had 60+ yards receiving or caught a touchdown. Lock Dalvin Cook ($7,200) in as well. The Packers allowed 15 receptions on 18 targets to running backs in the passing game last week. And the Vikings are high on team #EstablishTheRun.

The one thing to note is that there is a chance that this game is a sneaky shootout. It’s easy to stack receivers with Kirk Cousins at $5,300 because of the consolidated target share. The Vikings are so run so heavy in two-receiver sets (52% of plays last week). Adam Thielen ($7,100) and Stefon Diggs ($6,300) should dominate against the Packers, who ranked last in defensive efficiency against two-receiver sets. Thielen has gone over 96 yards in four of his last five against Green Bay. Diggs has gone over 60 yards in four of his last five games against Green Bay.

ARIZONA AT BALTIMORE

You should probably play Lamar Jackson ($6,700) across all formats in Week 2 DFS. Even at his expensive price the matchup against the Cardinals is too juicy. They allowed Matthew Stafford to absolutely explode in Week 1 for 31.6 fantasy points. Marquise Brown ($5,000) and Mark Andrews ($3,800) will be the two chalky receivers for Jackson. Brown is the easier fade, but Andrews is tough not to buy into considering what rookie T.J. Hockenson did to this Cardinals defense in Week 1. If you are looking to pivot off the chalkier Brown consider Seth Roberts, who led the team in snaps at the receiver position (52) and routes run (18). Mark Ingram might be heavily owned, especially this week in cash, but with no involvement in the passing game, that could make him more of a fade even against the porous Cardinals run defense if he does not score.

Arizona,ran 10-personnel on over 65% of their snaps. There is going to be opportunities for these receivers, especially if the Cardinals fall behind. You have Michael Crabtree ($3,300) with his #revengegame narrative, along with Christian Kirk ($4,500) and KeeSean Johnson ($3,100) as other options. Larry Fitzgerald ($4,600) traditionally plays better at home, making Kirk the better option this week.

JACKSONVILLE AT HOUSTON

It’s Gardner Minshew season in GPPs! Seriously though, at his price point at $4,800 as the starting quarterback of the Jaguars he can return on the investment. He scored 18.6 fantasy points last week against the Chiefs and in Week 2 DFS is playing an equally bad defense, The key for Minshew to be successful is that he will need to have time to throw the ball. Luckily for him, the Texans ranked sixth-worst in pass-rush grade in Week 1. Stack him with Dede Westbrook ($5,400) and Leonard Fournette ($6,300). Those guys could see a ton of short-area targets based on Minshew’s preseason yards/attempt at 4.9. Lower ownership as well. Also, the Texans just released Aaron Colvin, who was their primary slot cornerback.

As for the Texans, we saw the Chiefs made big plays against this secondary. This makes Will Fuller at ($5,300) an absolute screaming value play. In three career games against Jacksonville, Fuller has seen at least eight targets or totaled five receptions.

DALLAS AT WASHINGTON

Ezekiel Elliott ($8,700) in cash games. In GPPs, Adrian Peterson ($3,400) is getting the start and is running against the defense that allowed 10 yards/attempt last week to the Giants’ Saquon Barkley. Peterson is fresh and coming off a healthy inactive scratch. He’ll be ready to roll. Dak Prescott ($6,300) is another consideration in cash and can be stacked with any number of his receivers. Vernon Davis ($3,200) / Jordan Reed ($3,400) are two more punt plays at tight end. Reed will have very low ownership even if he does play.

INDIANAPOLIS AT TENNESSE

The Colts allowed the second-most fantasy points to the running back position in Week 2 DFS. Sets the stage nicely for Derrick Henry ($6,000). However, the contrarian play is Marlon Mack ($5,900). The Colts have historically dominated the Titans. Mack rushed for 180 yards in two games last year with two touchdowns against the Titans.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS AT DETROIT

Austin Ekeler ($6,100) in cash games. He was the true workhorse in the Chargers’ backfield. It was 75-25% split between him and Justin Jackson in snaps, 12-6 in rushing attempts, and seven-three in targets. His price went up just $600 from Week 1. Also, there are a ton of injuries with Hunter Henry out and Mike Williams ($5,500) just funneling more targets to Ekeler and Keenan Allen ($7,600). Should Williams completely miss the game, wide receiver Travis Benjamin ($3,200) gets a significant bump.

SAN FRANCISCO AT CINCINNATI

Tyler Boyd ($6,500) is still the option to target heavily at the receiver position. His ownership will probably be suppressed because of the hype on John Ross. Boyd received 11 targets and still definitely emerged as Andy Dalton’s safety net. If Joe Mixon ($6,500) is out, prepare to eat chalk and get a lot of exposure on Giovani Bernard ($5,300).

NEW ENGLAND AT MIAMI

Buy into Sony Michel ($6,200) in GPPs. Michel flopped big time in Week 1, but the game script narrative absolutely screams Michel as the dominant runner. But if the Patriots decide to make Damien Harris ($3,500) active I would pivot off Michel immediately. Harris profiles as a more in-between the tackles grinder so he could end up eating into touches if the game gets out of hand. Tom Brady ($6,400) is a safe cash play at the quarterback position. Too many weapons and he averaged 316 yards passing and three touchdowns in his last two games versus Miami.

SEATTLE AT PITTSBURGH

The Seahawks allowed 418 passing yards last week, which was a career-high for Andy Dalton. Ben Roethlisberger is definitely set to have a bounce-back effort against Seattle in Week 2 DFS. He is back home where his TD-INT ratio was 19-7 versus 15-9 on the road. A GPP receiver that could see some potential boom potential for Pittsburgh is James Washington. He led all players in air yards last Sunday (169) and Donte Moncrief has feet for hands. Chris Carson ($6,400) is a fade for me in an offense that does not necessarily project to see a lot of plays run. The Steelers run defense also played pretty well last week. They limited the Patriots to 3.4 yards per carry. The Seahawks averaged just 2.9 yards per carry last week against a sub-par Bengals defensive unit.

BUFFALO AT NEW YORK GIANTS

Josh Allen ($5,300) is one of the quarterbacks to target in GPPs. Despite four awful turnovers, Allen still managed to score 17+ fantasy points. With the Giants next up on the schedule (allowed 100+ receiving yards to both Michael Gallup and Amari Cooper and over 180 air yards last week) there’s upside with Allen. Three of Allen’s receivers surpassed over 70 air yards last week. Most will stack John Brown, but for a sneaky play look for Cole Beasley ($3,800) and Zay Jones ($3,500). As always the Giants have a two-man show in Evan Engram ($5,200) and Saqoun Barkley ($9,200). Engram is just $400 more than last week. They both see so much work and are viable options in both cash and GPPs. Especially with the chance that Sterling Shepard misses the game with a concussion.

KANSAS CITY AT OAKLAND

The highest over/under in Week 2 DFS this game should be heavily targeted by DFS players. Tyrell Williams ($4,400) is the stone-cold lock as a value wide receiver who has a great chance of leading the team in targets. Darren Waller ($3,300) is also the perfect punt play at tight end to get great value paying down for tight end. Running back Josh Jacobs at ($4,700) is also absolutely absurdly priced as a running back that could easily see 20+ touches. Tons of value on the Raiders side of things with the Chiefs creating an offensive atmosphere.

For the Chiefs, there’s a lot of value behind Mecole Hardman ($4,800) to be the Tyreek Hill replacement. If we learned anything from Week 1 is that speed kills. Hardman can fly and if he sees his role expanded he can deliver big-time.

NEW ORLEANS AT LOS ANGELES RAMS

Fade Drew Brees ($6,200). Brees’ 2018 home-road splits are absolutely astonishing. 21-1 TD – INT ratio at home, versus 11-4 ratio on the road. Yards per pass attempt fall from 9.54 all the way down to 6.88. Averaged 321 passing yards/game at home versus 217 passing yards/game on the road. But the quarterback on the other side of the field, Jared Goff ($5,900), is a BUY. His home TD-INT ratio last season was 22-3 with a yards/attempt at 9. You also need to make sure that Alvin Kamara ($8,200) is literally in every single one of your lineups. Then you need to bring it back with Brandin Cooks ($6,300) who like Goff, smashes at home. His numbers increase at home, going to 6.6 receptions and 95 receiving yards from 3.4 receptions and 55 receiving yards. Also…#revengegame.

With Brees projected to struggle, that is also why Michael Thomas is not someone you should be targeting at $8,000. The Rams secondary is much better with Aqib Talib on the field. In the NFC Championship Game, Thomas was held to just four receptions for 36 receiving yards. The better pass-catching option to utilize is Jared Cook at $4,700. Cook has played against the Wade Phillips led Rams’ defense just once and he absolutely smashed. Nine receptions for 180 yards.

https://twitter.com/AndrewErickson_/status/1171773582709592064

CHICAGO AT DENVER

You need to play a Week 2 DFS DST from some game correct? The Broncos DST ($2,700) was absolutely terrible last week against Oakland, but their track record in September at home is great. According to BradOTC on Twitter, the Broncos are 53-8-1 at Home in Weeks 1-2 since the AFL-NFL merger. 21-1 at home Weeks 1-2 since 2001. Also Mitchell Trubisky had three interceptions and five fumbles on the road last season. This game has the lowest total on FanDuel Sportsbooks at 40.5 with the Bears road favorites at -2.5.

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS: Week One Monday Night Football Breakdown and Podcast

5 years ago

written by

This report will provide plays for the NFL DFS Monday Night Football slate. I will break down changes each team has made during the off-season and provide recommended plays for each game.

MNF DFS Podcast with the King and Dan Wehr: Listen Below

Houston Texas vs. New Orleans Saints

O/U: 51.5 (NOS -6.5)

NFL DFS Team: Houston Texans

The Texans were one of the best rushing teams in the league last season according to team rankings, averaging 125 yards per game. They’ve added a few pieces here in the offseason through the draft, specifically at their weakest positon, left tackle (Laremy Tunsil). The Texans fell to the middle of the pack in terms of passing efficiency last season and I think injuries to Will Fuller, Deshaun Watson, and ineffective running by Lamar Miller were big contributors.

Watson took more hits than any QB in the league in 2018 so it was clear where they needed to make a change. By adding bulldog running back Duke Johnson and solidifying their offensive line they have a well rounded offense that can excel in the passing game if they can give Watson the time he needs to throw against a so-so New Orleans secondary (266 YPG allowed in 2018).

NFL DFS Team: New Orleans Saints

The Saints are coming fresh off of a heartbreak loss in the postseason after a much criticized no call on an obvious pass interference call against the Rams. I have to imagine this team comes in firing on all cylinders with aspirations of getting back into the postseason as a top seeded team. They lost a few pieces in the offseason, Mark Ingram being one of the biggest in free agency. The Saints replaced him with journeyman RB Latavius Murray, who should see a good bit of work in the red zone.

The Saints were a Top 10 team in terms of rushing and passing offense in 2018 and I don’t expect much to change this season. With no Ingram and Murray handling some of the workload, I still expect Alvin Kamara to see a massive snap share and should be considered on a week to week basis. Let’s not forget about sure handed receiver Michael Thomas, who reeled in 95% of catchable balls thrown his way. The Saints have lost the last five of their season openers.

NFL DFS Plays to consider:

Michael Thomas WR ($8500 FD|$7800 DK)
Deandre Hopkins WR ($9000 FD|$8000 DK)
Will Fuller WR ($6100 FD|$5300 DK)
Duke Johnson Jr. RB ($6500 FD|$6000 DK)
Alvin Kamra RB ($9000 FD|$8500 DK)
(Punt Play) Latavius Murray ($6000 FD|$4100 DK)
Deshaun Watson QB ($8600 FD|$6800 DK)
(Punt play) Kenny Stills WR ($5200 FD|$3900 FD)
(Punt Play) Tedd Ginn Jr. WR ($5000 FD|$4100 DK)

Denver Broncos vs. Oakland Raiders

O/U: 43.5 (DEN -2)

NFL DFS Team: Denver Broncos

The Broncos have struggled with finding a QB since the departure of Peyton Manning and turn to the services of Joe Flacco for the 2019 season. Flacco, once an MVP caliber QB for the Ravens, has struggled to find consistent footing in the offense since his miraculous run in the 2012 postseason. There was a lot of praise for Flacco out of Broncos off-season camps, citing his ability to read the defense and vertically stretch the field (but we already knew that). Philip Lindsay is coming off of surgery but is at full health. Royce Freeman is also back to 100% health and saw a majority of the action in the preseason with Lindsay in recovery. I believe we see a more balanced snap share in the back field between the two this season and I tend favor Freeman in this first game just due to the fact that Lindsay did not see a lot of work and should be eased back into the offense.

Not much should change for the Denver defense, they still have that formidable defensive line and a solid core of LBs to complement them, although they still allowed 120 rushing yards per game last season. The Broncos also added much needed versatility to their secondary, one of the weakest spots in their defense last year. They allowed 245 yards per game through the air on average last season.

NFL DFS Team: Oakland Raiders

What a disastrous last few weeks for the Raiders. With the untimely departure of Antonio Brown it leaves a huge hole in one of their weakest positions on offense. The only receiver worth noting on this offense, Tyrell Williams, draws a tough matchup against Isaac Yiadom. One noteworthy change to the Raiders is their improvement at the offensive line positions.

The defense isn’t very appealing and tried to make up for their woes through the 2019 draft. The defensive performance will be determined by their rookie draft picks (Two edge rushers, and one safety in the first two rounds). If these guys can plug and play I think the Raiders could have a bright spot on the defense. Another player to keep an eye on for the Raiders is highly touted rookie RB Josh Jacobs. He comes into tonight’s slate as a top value play and although the Raiders are not a run first offense, I believe they turn to Jacobs to pick up the slack on offense.

NFL DFS Plays to consider

Joe Flacco QB ($7000 FD|$5100 DK)
Josh Jacobs RB ($6800 FD|$5000 DK)
Royce Freeman RB ($5900 FD|$4300 DK)
Emmanuel Sanders WR ($5700 FD|$5500 DK)
Darren Waller TE ($5400 FD|$3400 DK)
Courtland Sutton WR ($4900 FD|$4500 DK)

Defense

Flip a coin between the Raiders or Broncos. I favor the Broncos just due to all the questions surrounding the offense right now.

Denver Broncos DST ($4800 FD|$3500 DK)
Oakland Raiders DST ($3800 FD|$2300 DK)

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NFL

Injury Insider: Week One Outlooks

5 years ago

written by

Can you think of a holiday or time of year you’ve loved since you were a kid? It doesn’t even have to be a holiday, just think of a time that excites you every single time it comes around—that’s the feeling we get over at Win Daily every NFL season. That excitement is rooted in helping people like you make the right fade/play decisions all NFL season long. This year not only will you receive advice from fantasy legends like Scott Engel, you’ll also have access to injury analysis from me – The Student Doc (@FFStudentDoc on Twitter).

I’ma doctoral physical therapy student who graduates in May—I also happen toprocrastinate from studying for Management of the Integumentary System forthe Physical Therapist by adjusting my daily and season long lineups. I’vededicated the last seven years of my life to helping patients rehab from allsorts of muscle, bone, tendon, and nerve injuries—and now I’m using thatknowledge to help you decipher the murky waters of NFL player injuries. I’lllist the player, his current status, whether I’m starting him, and why. First,we need to establish important points:

Atrue clinical opinion is only possible by physically examining thepatient personally.
NFLteams cannot and do not release every detail about a player’s specific injury.
Generally,there is enough information available for people like me to provide reasonableanalysis.
Iam conservative by nature, so if I would not start a player myself, I am goingto advise you to do the same. It’s all a matter of how risk averse you are.

I’llalways try my best not to nerd out on anatomy and physiology, but no promises.

Trey Burton– Game time decision: I think of Burton as a “red light” and here’s why: His injury is being deemed as having a minor groin injury, which adds up because he had a “sports hernia” repair approximately four or five months ago. This is relevant because a “sports hernia” is actually a groin injury. Most reports are stating the injury is “new” and “minor”, this is difficult to imagine for two reasons: the pelvic girdle and core musculature are intimately interconnected, regardless of which “side” is affected and depending on the specific procedure done, Burton’s expected return could be up to four months with no setbacks or recurrences. So, considering his current status, his symptom report, and the fact that he had surgery within the last five months even if he becomes available, I’m not playing Burton in Week 1. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22955404

DKMetcalf—Sticking with the traffic light analogy, I view DK Metcalf as a “yellow light”considering the fact that despite the public’s use of the phrase “minor surgery”the fact is that surgical tools were placed inside of his knee. That is a causefor caution, especially when considering that Week 1 falls right at post-op day19 for Metcalf. This timing lands right in the middle of the 2-4-week layoffexpected with the procedure he had. The flip side is that Metcalf has been onthe field and practicing with no limitations and no setbacks have beenreported. Keep an eye on the injury report for any developments or flare-ups.Metcalf is a consideration, but the fact that it’s Week 1, he’s a rookie widereceiver, and he’s missed the last three weeks of practice, you’ll likely havebetter options. https://www.uwhealth.org/files/uwhealth/docs/sportsmed/SM_knee_arthroscopy.pdf

DeSeanJackson:Jackson suffered a broken left ring finger last week in practice. According to Eaglesinsider Dave Spadaro, Jackson is expected to play in the season opener thisSunday against Washington. This comes after several contradictory reports thatincluded one of Jackson being fitted for a splint. Even if this is the case,we’ll need to monitor Jackson’s participation in practice, which will helpguide this start/sit decision. With injuries like his, the ultimate driver ofproduction is his tolerance to pain. That said, he will likely tape or splintthe finger and receive something for the pain on Sunday. Adding in thefact that Jackson is right-handed leaves me with minimal concerns. If hepractices all week with no setbacks, consider him a leverage play from aninjury perspective. https://twitter.com/EaglesInsider

JulianEdelman—We’reback to a yellow light. Edelman fractured his left thumb in the offseason butdepending on the complexity should have been a no-brainer…until the Patriotslast pre-season game. Edelman ran a crossing route and was taken down by adefender. He stood up and immediately grabbed for the same previously injuredthumb. He didn’t play any snaps following this incident, but it makes me raisemy eyebrows. A receiver like Edelman is much useful than a DeSeanJackson. Edelman catches balls in the short and intermediate range of the field,requiring dexterity of both hands and the ability to withstand highvelocity passes repeatedly. Keep an eye on the injury report as the weekprogresses (despite how cryptic the Patriots tend to be). We’ll have a betteridea of how he’s doing late in the week, but for now consider other options indaily.

CamNewton:Green light it with Cam. Although he had an injury scare in the Pantherspreseason game, there were no reports of fractures on the X-rays and(presumably) he had minimal swelling to begin with. Clinically this ultimatelywas diagnosed as a “sprain” which essentially means Cam reported pain withwalking and when he was being poked at. At this point, Newton has not beenrestricted while at practice in any way and should be cleared with no concernsfor Sunday. It’s also worth noting that in the offseason Newton had a “cleanup” procedure on the shoulder that he injured last year, and all of thosestructures were intact. I don’t expected Newton to be a large injury risk.

Emmanuel Sanders: Sanders is intriguing to me from an injury perspective. He had two procedures over the summer—one on each ankle— for completely different reasons. The non-Achilles procedure was to repair the connective tissue in between his tibia and fibula, which essentially amounted to a high ankle sprain that never completey healed on its own. The Achilles reconstruction is holding up well to this point, but I’m not certain about his season long outlook. To spare you the details all tendons, including the Achilles, can take up to 12-18 months to completely heal. This is because it responds to low and slow load. Too much load too quickly can result in disaster. So, although I don’t expect a re-tear of the tendon for Sanders, it is completely within the realm of possibilities that aches and pains for a 32-year-old who had two different surgeries can begin to hinder him as the season wears on. If you’re using Sanders this season, it’s in Week 1.

Now,the moment you’ve all been waiting for:

Todd Gurley— Green light at your owndiscretion: It’s just easier to list my concerns with Gurley like this:

His availability does not precludean RB1 performance.

Because,

Pain is notGurley’s only limiting factor

Alongwith reduced conditioning due to “load management” and (likely) reduced goalline work, his knee will swell due to the condition. When the knee takes oneven minimal swelling, the brain shuts down use of the muscles surrounding thejoint, usually the quads. No amount of “toughing it out” can turn thisevolutionary mechanism off.

Gurley couldbe a home run…or a whiff.

Worstcase scenario: Gurley takes the handoff, is slammed into the ground knee firstby a 300lb linemen and a 16 week-long cascade of inflammation and a dance withthe injury report begins. Best-case scenario: the Rams manage Gurley’s workvolume perfectly, his body responds well to the daily prehab/rehab, and hisclinical signs and symptoms are kept at a minimum allowing for a top 10 RBfinish.

Butultimately,

Expect headaches:

Therewill be weeks in which Gurley is listed as doubtful, upgraded to questionable,and lays a goose egg. Conversely, there’s a universe in which he starts theweek with no designation, ends with a “game time decision” on Saturday, andgoes off for 30 PPR points.

So, there you have it. An injury outlook for Week 1 on every relevant player . Look for an update to this article on Friday and make sure you create a free profile over at windailysports.com and follow me on Twitter @FFStudentDoc for up to the minute injury analysis.

Todd Gurley Featured Image via mario957

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