NFL DFS: Week One Monday Night Football Breakdown and Podcast

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This report will provide plays for the NFL DFS Monday Night Football slate. I will break down changes each team has made during the off-season and provide recommended plays for each game.

MNF DFS Podcast with the King and Dan Wehr: Listen Below

Houston Texas vs. New Orleans Saints

O/U: 51.5 (NOS -6.5)

NFL DFS Team: Houston Texans

The Texans were one of the best rushing teams in the league last season according to team rankings, averaging 125 yards per game. They’ve added a few pieces here in the offseason through the draft, specifically at their weakest positon, left tackle (Laremy Tunsil). The Texans fell to the middle of the pack in terms of passing efficiency last season and I think injuries to Will Fuller, Deshaun Watson, and ineffective running by Lamar Miller were big contributors.

Watson took more hits than any QB in the league in 2018 so it was clear where they needed to make a change. By adding bulldog running back Duke Johnson and solidifying their offensive line they have a well rounded offense that can excel in the passing game if they can give Watson the time he needs to throw against a so-so New Orleans secondary (266 YPG allowed in 2018).

NFL DFS Team: New Orleans Saints

The Saints are coming fresh off of a heartbreak loss in the postseason after a much criticized no call on an obvious pass interference call against the Rams. I have to imagine this team comes in firing on all cylinders with aspirations of getting back into the postseason as a top seeded team. They lost a few pieces in the offseason, Mark Ingram being one of the biggest in free agency. The Saints replaced him with journeyman RB Latavius Murray, who should see a good bit of work in the red zone.

The Saints were a Top 10 team in terms of rushing and passing offense in 2018 and I don’t expect much to change this season. With no Ingram and Murray handling some of the workload, I still expect Alvin Kamara to see a massive snap share and should be considered on a week to week basis. Let’s not forget about sure handed receiver Michael Thomas, who reeled in 95% of catchable balls thrown his way. The Saints have lost the last five of their season openers.

NFL DFS Plays to consider:

1. Michael Thomas WR ($8500 FD|$7800 DK)
2. Deandre Hopkins WR ($9000 FD|$8000 DK)
3. Will Fuller WR ($6100 FD|$5300 DK)
4. Duke Johnson Jr. RB ($6500 FD|$6000 DK)
5. Alvin Kamra RB ($9000 FD|$8500 DK)
6. (Punt Play) Latavius Murray ($6000 FD|$4100 DK)
7. Deshaun Watson QB ($8600 FD|$6800 DK)
8. (Punt play) Kenny Stills WR ($5200 FD|$3900 FD)
9. (Punt Play) Tedd Ginn Jr. WR ($5000 FD|$4100 DK)

Denver Broncos vs. Oakland Raiders

O/U: 43.5 (DEN -2)

NFL DFS Team: Denver Broncos

The Broncos have struggled with finding a QB since the departure of Peyton Manning and turn to the services of Joe Flacco for the 2019 season. Flacco, once an MVP caliber QB for the Ravens, has struggled to find consistent footing in the offense since his miraculous run in the 2012 postseason. There was a lot of praise for Flacco out of Broncos off-season camps, citing his ability to read the defense and vertically stretch the field (but we already knew that). Philip Lindsay is coming off of surgery but is at full health. Royce Freeman is also back to 100% health and saw a majority of the action in the preseason with Lindsay in recovery. I believe we see a more balanced snap share in the back field between the two this season and I tend favor Freeman in this first game just due to the fact that Lindsay did not see a lot of work and should be eased back into the offense.

Not much should change for the Denver defense, they still have that formidable defensive line and a solid core of LBs to complement them, although they still allowed 120 rushing yards per game last season. The Broncos also added much needed versatility to their secondary, one of the weakest spots in their defense last year. They allowed 245 yards per game through the air on average last season.

NFL DFS Team: Oakland Raiders

What a disastrous last few weeks for the Raiders. With the untimely departure of Antonio Brown it leaves a huge hole in one of their weakest positions on offense. The only receiver worth noting on this offense, Tyrell Williams, draws a tough matchup against Isaac Yiadom. One noteworthy change to the Raiders is their improvement at the offensive line positions.

The defense isn’t very appealing and tried to make up for their woes through the 2019 draft. The defensive performance will be determined by their rookie draft picks (Two edge rushers, and one safety in the first two rounds). If these guys can plug and play I think the Raiders could have a bright spot on the defense. Another player to keep an eye on for the Raiders is highly touted rookie RB Josh Jacobs. He comes into tonight’s slate as a top value play and although the Raiders are not a run first offense, I believe they turn to Jacobs to pick up the slack on offense.

NFL DFS Plays to consider

1. Joe Flacco QB ($7000 FD|$5100 DK)
2. Josh Jacobs RB ($6800 FD|$5000 DK)
3. Royce Freeman RB ($5900 FD|$4300 DK)
4. Emmanuel Sanders WR ($5700 FD|$5500 DK)
5. Darren Waller TE ($5400 FD|$3400 DK)
6. Courtland Sutton WR ($4900 FD|$4500 DK)

Defense

Flip a coin between the Raiders or Broncos. I favor the Broncos just due to all the questions surrounding the offense right now.

1. Denver Broncos DST ($4800 FD|$3500 DK)
2. Oakland Raiders DST ($3800 FD|$2300 DK)

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