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MLB DFS: Thirsty Thursday, Aces and Bases for 8.6

scotthouston1971@yahoo.com 5 years ago

written by scotthouston1971@yahoo.com

Hopefully, you all were on the Discord last night to catch all of our discussions that lead to a very nice night of cashing! Let’s run it back today. The August 6th edition of Aces and Bases will take on the main MLB DFS slates on DraftKings and FanDuel.

The purpose of this article is to identify our top pitching plays and fades on the slate, in addition to our top offense stacks for your GPP lineups.

Please make sure you keep an eye on the weather and other factors as those are always important things to monitor when playing MLB DFS. Be sure to check out our MLB DFS Projections as well. Without further ado, it’s Aces and Bases time.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Best Value: Tyler Chatwood ($9,400 DK / $9,900 FD)

Chatwood is on an a absolute heater right now, his cutter is just what he needed as he can now keep batters off balance in and out of the zone. Chatwood cut down 11 Pirates on his way to 6.1 scoreless innings last time out and is on the mound today against a Royals team that loves to strike out

There is no real value on FanDuel sadly as Chatwood is the top pitcher off the board and the slate is only 5 games. I would roll with the rookie Nate Pearson if you want another option on FD, but I dont love him as much on DK as the options with the two additional games really opens things up.

Honorable Mentions: Not much here today.

Top Ace(s): Luis Castillo ($9,500 DK / $9,600 FD) Carlos Carassaco ($9,800 DK / N/A- FD) Zac Gallen ($8,900 DK / $8,200 FD)

Castillo got beat up a bit last time out against the Tigers of all teams. I am ready brush that off though as he produced a massive 22 whiffs through the outing. The usually great changeup was left in the zone in a bit and got knocked around letting in 5 runs.

Castillo should have a good bounce back week facing off against a Cleveland team that has one of the worst barrel rates in the league coming in at 3.8% right now.

On the other end of this game Carrasco will look to continue his good season. Cookie was able to handle the Twins in his last start, only allowing 3 runs and striking out 5. I’m going to to trust the veteran who has started the season with 31% k rate.

Gallen had a bit of a rocky start to the year but it really looks like he found it and the stuff is there. Gallen made the Dodgers look pedestrian producing lots of whiffs to go along with his 9ks. Sadly Gallen draws another powerhouse offense today in the Stros but this looks like the beginning of the outbreak many predicted for Gallen.

Honorable Mention: Nada

Punt Play: Jordan Montgomery ($7,800 DK / $6,600 FD)

Montgomery is coming in a bit faster on the heater this year at about 93mph or so. Extra velocity never hurts and it seems to be helping his curveball and change this year. The movement is minimal on the secondaries for Montgomery but he has shown the ability to make the arsenal work so far.

Honorable Mentions: Jordan Yamamoto / Nate Pearson

Top Fade: Everyone else

This is a very short slate, even shorter on FD, and I would not feel comfortable rolling out anyone that wasnt mentioned above.

Honorable Mention: Zilch.

MLB DFS: The Bases

There are a ton of different ways to build your offense on these big slates. Personally, I’m going to take a stand on a few offenses and call it a day. If you’re play MME style of GPPs, you can always get some exposure to more offenses, but for 3-Entry Max and Single Entry GPPs, I’m going to battle with a very limited player pool, as I really want to pick on a couple of starting pitchers and weaker bullpens.

We all know the importance of stacking when play MLB DFS GPPs, so here are my top stacks for the Thursday’s Main Slate.

Top Stacks

Chicago Cubs – The Cubs are cruising lately, and the Royals have been an afterthought for them. Brad Keller will have a go at slowing the Cubs bats today, I don’t expect him to succeed
Chicago White Sox – The Sox were tamed for a game by the brew crew last night, they were getting on base but couldn’t find the right hit at the right time. Look for them to bounce back against Josh Lindblom.

Value Stacks

Arizona Diamondbacks – The Diamondback bats finally woke up in a big way yesterday, putting up a 14 spot on McCullers and the Astros staff. The Astros are going to send out an opener today and the dbacks will look to keep it going.
Milwaukee Brewers – Flip side of the south side game the Brewers get Gio Gonzalez who has just been using to many pitches this year. With velocity as low as Gio’s he has been nibbling too much and fastballs in the zone have been getting hit hard. The Brewers should find the pen early today.

Monkey Knife Fight

Using the information above, you can even make some money on Monkey Knife Fight! As I said I like the Cubs stack here and you can stack 3 of their offensive players to hit the over on 15.5 fantasy points and win 5x your money! Check out how to play with our quick overview here.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter @TimmySigs and be sure to sign up for a ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB DFS: Bump Day. Aces and Bases for 8.5

scotthouston1971@yahoo.com 5 years ago

written by scotthouston1971@yahoo.com

Hopefully, you all were on the Discord last night to catch all of our discussions that lead to a very nice night of cashing! Let’s run it back today. The August 5th edition of Aces and Bases will take on the main MLB DFS slates on DraftKings and FanDuel.

The purpose of this article is to identify our top pitching plays and fades on the slate, in addition to our top offense stacks for your GPP lineups.

Please make sure you keep an eye on the weather and other factors as those are always important things to monitor when playing MLB DFS. Be sure to check out our MLB DFS Projections as well. Without further ado, it’s Aces and Bases time.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Best Value: Luis Castillo ($8,900 DK / $9,900 FD)

Castillo should have a good bounce back week facing off against a Cleveland team that has one of the worst barrel rates in the league coming in at 3.8% right now.

Honorable Mentions: Dylan Bundy

Top Ace(s): Mike Clevinger ($9,200 DK / $9,600 FD) Yu Darvish($10,400 DK / $9,500 FD)

Darvish looked great carving up the Pirates for 7ks over 6 shutout innings. Darvish is starting to find his form this year and now gets the Royals who are in the top 5 in Ks, and the bottom 5 in walks taken.

Clevinger wasn’t his normal mad man self last appearance, allowing 4 earned runs and a ugly 5 walks. Now, he did face an evil Twins lineup who is ruining every pitchers day, but he was not the 34% K rate Clevinger we saw last year. I still believe in Clevinger though and the walks should come down and Ks up.

Honorable Mention: Hyun Jin Ryu

Punt Play: Randy Dobnak ($7,000 DK / $6,600 FD)

Dobnak tossed 5 scoreless innings against the Indians last time out. Dobnak isn’t going to wow anyone with a performance but he should be a safe play to get a bunch of outs against Pittsburgh.

Honorable Mentions: Ross Stripling / Garret Richards

Top Fade: Sean Manaea ($8,600 DK / $6,800 FD)

$8,600 seems hefty here. Its so tough to be effective while sitting at 89-90mph on the 4-seamer. Manaea had a hard time getting outs against Seattle so it’ll be a bit before we look forward to one of his starts.

Honorable Mention: Adrian Houser

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stacks

Minnesota Twins – The Twins continue to tear apart anyone in their path. Trevor Williams and the reinforcements of the Pirates pen should be no exception
Colorado Rockies – Not much to say here. The Rockies will be ready to tee off against Logan Webb in Coors.

Value Stacks

Toronto Blue Jays– The Blue Jays draw Sean Newcomb today and a ailing Braves staff. Newcomb has only made it through 7.2ip through 2 starts with a measly 5 strikeouts. On top of that Newcomb is allowing a 40% hard hit rate.
San Francisco Giants– This seems like an obvious one to me. The Giants might have a high draft percentage today but its always good to have a piece of the Coors action.

5 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Masterful Monday. Aces and Bases for 8.3

scotthouston1971@yahoo.com 5 years ago

written by scotthouston1971@yahoo.com

Hopefully, you all were on the Discord last night to catch all of our discussions that lead to a very nice night of cashing! Let’s run it back today. The August 3rd edition of Aces and Bases will take on the main MLB DFS slates on DraftKings and FanDuel.

The purpose of this article is to identify our top pitching plays and fades on the slate, in addition to our top offense stacks for your GPP lineups.

Please make sure you keep an eye on the weather and other factors as those are always important things to monitor when playing MLB DFS. Be sure to check out our MLB DFS Projections as well. Without further ado, it’s Aces and Bases time.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Best Value: Frankie Montas ($7,200 DK / $7,700 FD)

Montas scared me a bit last week, only producing 3Ks and 3 whiffs on the slider. The redeeming factor was his sinker. The sinker was coming in a tick slower at 95mph, but he was able stay on the edges and make it through 5 innings on 77 pitches. Montas draws the Mariners today and hopefully we see the strikeout numbers jump up here.

Honorable Mentions: Chris Paddack

Top Ace(s): Walker Buehler ($10,300 DK / $10,000 FD) Jacob DeGrom ($11,600 DK / $10,700 FD) Gerrit Cole ($11,000 / $11,000)

Walker got through just 56 pitches with 3Ks last time out against the Astros. It was not the prettiest start either. The Padres present an easier challenge and Buehler’s fastball still looked as good as we believe it is. Buehler will be a good play with all the top names on the board today.

DeGrom touched 101mph his last time out! He is dope and does dope things. The Braves lineup is not the easiest but if anyone is match up proof its DeGrom.

Speaking of being dope. Gerrit Cole gets the Phillies today. Cole racked up 7Ks facing Baltimore last week, letting up 3 earned over his 6.2 innings pitched. Cole is yet another option on pick your ace day.

Honorable Mention: Mike Soroka

Punt Play: Carlos Rodon ($7,000 DK / $6,600 FD)

This one is a bit shaky. Rodon’s sliders was awesome last year, sadly it has not been consistently good so far this year. Rodon is always a bit of a toss up but this Brewers line up simply is not that scary, especially with the way Yelich has started his year.

Honorable Mention: Danny Duffy

Top Fade: Brett Anderson ($7,300 DK / $6,700 FD)

The veteran lefty is going to make his season debut against a white hot White Sox team that is finding their stride at the plate. The lineup is loaded with right handed power and should continue rolling here in Milwaukee

Honorable Mention: Nobody

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stacks

Minnesota Twins – The Twins square up with Derek Holland tomorrow. Holland has always struggled getting righties out and the twins heart of the order is stacked with right handed power. Get the big bats in here.
Chicago White Sox – The White Sox are white hot right now, scoring 20 runs in their last two contests. Just like the twins they get a good lefty match up, with plenty of right handed middle of the order power.

Value Stacks

Oakland Athletics– The Athletics get the Mariners to start the week, a rotation and bullpen we will be picking often this year. I did not love Sheffields approach in his first outing, saw way too many sinkers and not enough 4-seamers. Look at the back end of the lineup here for some good plays.
San Francisco Giants– This seems like an obvious one to me. The Giants might have a high draft percentage today but its always good to have a piece of the Coors action.

5 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Happy Saturday! Aces and Bases for 8.1

Matt Vecchio 5 years ago

written by Matt Vecchio

Hopefully, you all were on the Discord last night to catch all of our discussions that lead to a very nice night of cashing! Let’s run it back today. The August 1st edition of Aces and Bases will take on the main MLB DFS slates on DraftKings and FanDuel.

The purpose of this article is to identify our top pitching plays and fades on the slate, in addition to our top offense stacks for your GPP lineups.

Please make sure you keep an eye on the weather and other factors as those are always important things to monitor when playing MLB DFS. Be sure to check out our MLB DFS Projections as well. Without further ado, it’s Aces and Bases time.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Best Value: Tyler Chatwood ($8,200 DK / $8,000 FD)

Tyler Chatwood, I can’t believe i’m saying this, but he looked good! There was some command there (only 2BBs) and man was the stuff good. The biggest change we saw with Chatwood was the cutter usage increase, he tossed it about 30% of the time last time out and saw great results striking out 8 over 6 innings, even had a extra tick of velo on it!

Chatwood draws a good match up today in the Pirates, hopefully he picks up where he left off, and for $8,000 i’m willing to take the chance.

Honorable Mentions: Luke Weaver

Top Ace(s): Tyler Glasnow ($9,300 DK / $9,800 FD) Carlos Carrasco ($9,200 / $9,400)

Carrasco was back to his usual self striking out 10 over 6 innings while only giving up one free pass in his season debut. Going to continue to trust Carlos and pretty much everyone else on this Indians staff until they give us a reason not to.

Glasnow looked like his amazing first half self against Atlanta to open to season, striking out 9 over only 4 innings! The Braves did manage get the pitch count up though so it was a bit of a early departure. Glasnow is going to have a high draft percentage today against Baltimore but he has reasonable price.

Honorable Mention: Nobody

Punt Play: Griffin Canning ($8,700 DK / $7,200 FD)

Pretty crazy price difference here. I’m sticking with Canning, even with this tough match up against the Astros, I believe in the stuff and the approach. Canning struck out 7 in just 4.2IP last time out but things got a bit hairy a couple times, and he let 3 runs come across. Canning should have a low draft percentage today, and i like his price much more on FD, but still worth a play on DK if you wanna load the bats up today.

Honorable Mention: Mitch Keller

Top Fade: Zach Grienke ($10,800 DK / $9,000 FD)

This price tag is crazy. Grienke’s fastball was coming in 87mph in his first start against the Mariners. That just does not play. We have seen this from Grienke before as his velo is usually down during sprig training and the first month of the season, so there is a chance he ramps it back it up to the usual 90mph or so this time out, but the Angels have been hitting lately. Im going to stick to the plays above, even without Trout in the lineup.

Honorable Mention: Julio Urias

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stacks

Chicago White Sox – The Sox are coming together, adding another piece of the puzzle yesterday with Nick Madrigal joining the big league club. The Sox are facing the back end of the Royals rotation and should have no problem throwing some runs on the board.

New York Yankees – The Red Sox are rolling out Zack Godley to start the game and will be going to the bullpen early on the account of Godley not being stretched out yet. The usually high priced Yanks are a bit easier to stomach today with the premiums being placed on the Colorado game.

Value Stacks

Kansas City Royals – The Royals have been great stacks to start the season, incredibly cheap for the production they are providing and just continue to hit. They draw the veteran Gio Gonzelaz today and will look to beat up on him early.
Seattle Mariners – The Mariners have been playing some high scoring contests lately. Kyle Lewis is on insane heater right now and these bats will cost nothing and should have a low draft percentage.

Thrive Fantasy

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5 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for July 31

Adam Strangis 5 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for 7.31

My name is Adam Strangis and I’m filling in for Timmy on this Friday evening. Last night was a hair frustrating for some in the Discord if you faded the Yankee game due to weather. It was one of those nights where the process was spot on, so that’s a positive. Aces and Bases for July 31 will take on the main MLB DFS slates on DraftKings and FanDuel.

The purpose of this article is to identify our top pitching plays and fades on the slate, in addition to our top offense stacks for your GPP lineups.

Please make sure you keep an eye on the weather and other factors as those are always important things to monitor when playing MLB DFS. Be sure to check out our MLB DFS Projections as well. Without further ado, it’s Aces and Bases time.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Best Value: Luis Castillo ($8,000 DK/$10,100 FD)

I’m happy I got to write Aces and Bases for Friday July 31 because this was an easy pick. So if you’re playing FD, Castillo is not a value at all and I would sub in Mike Minor as the Value. However, we simply can’t ignore Castillo on DK at this price. It’s an egregious price tag that is going to leave the Reds ace as absolute chalk. He destroyed this same Tigers offense last time out for 29.3 DK points and they have struck out the most against RHP since the start of 2018. You lock him in and get different elsewhere.

Honorable Mention – Mike Minor

Top Ace(s): Yu Darvish ($10,500 DK/ $9,100 FD)

Darvish is coming off a very mediocre start against Milwaukee but this is certainly a perfect get right spot. He draws the Pittsburgh Pirates, who sport roughly 4-5 minor league hitters per game. In the early going, Pittsburgh has seen their K rate skyrocket to 27.9% against RHP. This is a stark contrast to their 18.8% clip in 2019.

To make matters easier for Darvish, the Pirates are bottom two in average, OBP, slugging, OPS, wOBA and wRC+ in the first week. Other than that, the offense is really clicking (says the bitter Bucco fan). I expect Darvish to gt back to his second half of 2019 form when he whiffed 37.8% of hitters faced and gave up a .254 wOBA.

Honorable Mention – Mike Clevinger

Punt Play: Dallas Keuchel ($7,300 DK/ $7,000 FD)

In full transparency, I will not be dipping below Castillo on DK or Mike Minor on FD. The lower rung of pitching tonight is rife with grenades that I’ll be looking to avoid. The only one that maybe you can make a case for is Keuchel. He’s typically not someone we chase with a K rate under 22% since 2015 and the K is king in DFS.

What he does well is generate ground balls, with a GB % of at least 60% in two of the past three seasons. So far, the Royals have whiffed 33.3% vs LHP (42 plate appearances is a frightfully low sample) and have a .292 wOBA. They did have the 11th highest GB rate in 2019, so you might be able to catch Keuchel in a good run prevention spot even with a limited ceiling.

Honorable Mention – None

Top Fade – Blake Snell ($10,800 DK/ $9,500 FD)

Snell is the most expensive option on DK and is going to be capped to just 3-4 innings on Friday. His fastball velocity was down in his first start and he was inefficient in said start, throwing 46 pitches in two innings. Baltimore is quietly not that bad against LHP early on, with a top 10 wOBA of .325. That’s not likely to be accurate but there’s no reason to go after Snell when he’s capped.

Honorable Mention – Zac Gallen

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stacks

Chicago White Sox – They face off against a 22 year old LHP named Kris Bubic who has never pitched above A ball. He has shown some K ability at 28% last year in 101 innings, but he also allowed a 40% fly ball rate. Through 33 plate appearances, Chicago has mauled LHP with a .481 wOBA, .308 ISO, 1.161 OPS and a .385 average.
New York Yankees – The Yanks hammered last night as chalk and they get another tasty matchup here against Ryan Weber. The righty got scorched for six runs in 3.2 IP against the Orioles. Boston’s bullpen has pitched the fourth-most innings so far and has given up the ninth-highest wOBA and 12th highest HR/9.

Value Stacks

Tampa Bay Rays – The last time we saw Alex Cobb log a large sample size in 2018, he got tuned up for a 4.90 ERA and only struck out 15.4% of the hitters he faced. The Rays are still missing Austin Meadows, but boast plenty of cost effective options to attack a mediocre pitcher like Cobb.
Cincinnati Reds – If there was one thing we learned about Spencer Turnbull, it’s he struggles against LHH. They got him for a .347 wOBA and near a .300 average in 2019. The Reds have six LHH in the lineup tonight.

Monkey Knife Fight

Using the information above, you can even make some money on Monkey Knife Fight! I think Mike Minor’s prop of just 5.5 K’s is something that we should be chasing for sure. Check out how to play with our quick overview here.

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for 7.30

scotthouston1971@yahoo.com 5 years ago

written by scotthouston1971@yahoo.com

Hopefully, you all were on the Discord last night to catch all of our discussions that lead to a very nice night of cashing! Let’s run it back today. The July 30th edition of Aces and Bases will take on the main MLB DFS slates on DraftKings and FanDuel.

The purpose of this article is to identify our top pitching plays and fades on the slate, in addition to our top offense stacks for your GPP lineups.

Please make sure you keep an eye on the weather and other factors as those are always important things to monitor when playing MLB DFS. Be sure to check out our MLB DFS Projections as well. Without further ado, it’s Aces and Bases time.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Best Value: Dylan Bundy ($8,200 DK / $8,200 FD)

Bundy had a great first showing this season striking out 7 while giving up just 1 run over 6.2IP. This was Bundy’s Angels debut and he immediately looks more comfortable using his arsenal. Everything seemed to be working, including his slider that FINALLY had increased usage (33%!).

Bundy gets a great chance to follow up his good start with a go at the Mariners today, where strikeouts will be plentiful.

Honorable Mentions: Ross Stripling

Top Ace(s): Shane Bieber ($9,800 DK / $10,700 FD)

Absolute domination on opening day. 14Ks an no earned runs. Bieber had it all going with 21 whiffs on the day and showcasing top tier fastball command. Great to see Bieber picked up where he left off last year and is match up proof until proven otherwise.

Honorable Mention: Dinelson Lamet

Punt Play: Robbie Ray ($7,100 DK / $7,900 FD)

Ray had his normal nasty stuff in his first outing, but he did not exhibit this new found control we were hearing about. The new shortened arm circle did seem to be real, but it did not bring the command I was hoping it would (so far). Ray is going to have a tough opponent in the Dodgers today, if the stuff is there he could hang though, and could provide some good value with a low draft %

Honorable Mention: Brady Singer

Top Fade: Jose Berrios ($10,200 DK / $9,000 FD)

Berrios has accrued some good name value while being a consistent arm with a good looking breaking ball. I don’t want to call him over rated, but I think his price is too high here. In Berrios’s opening day start against the White Sox he gave up 4 runs, while only strike out 1 and getting 1 measly swinging strike. Berrios needs to show us something before I believe in the $10k price tag.

Honorable Mention: J.A. Happ

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stacks

New York – I like both the Mets and the Yanks today. John Means is going for Baltimore and the Yankees have a lineup designed to kill left handed pitching. The Mets get Martin Perez, who couldn’t handle the aforementioned Orioles in his last start.

Los Angeles Angels – The Mariners have allowed at least 6 runs in each of the first 6 games of the season. The Angels put up a 7 spot last night and I don’t see a reason they cant repeat that tonight.

Value Stacks

Kansas City Royals – The Royals have been great stacks to start the season, incredibly cheap for the production they are providing and get another great opportunity against a weak Tigers staff today.
San Diego Padres – Another cheap option that has been hitting so far this year. Obviously it is easy to pick on the Giants, but I will continue to do so.

Monkey Knife Fight

Using the information above, you can even make some money on Monkey Knife Fight! As I said I like Shane Bieber in this spot and you can grab the over on his 5.5 strikeout prop!Check out how to play with our quick overview here.

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB DFS: Ace Day! Aces and Bases for 7.29

scotthouston1971@yahoo.com 5 years ago

written by scotthouston1971@yahoo.com

Hopefully, you all were on the Discord last night to catch all of our discussions that lead to a very nice night of cashing! Let’s run it back today. The July 29th edition of Aces and Bases will take on the main MLB DFS slates on DraftKings and FanDuel.

The purpose of this article is to identify our top pitching plays and fades on the slate, in addition to our top offense stacks for your GPP lineups.

Please make sure you keep an eye on the weather and other factors as those are always important things to monitor when playing MLB DFS. Be sure to check out our MLB DFS Projections as well. Without further ado, it’s Aces and Bases time.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Best Value: Chris Paddock ($8,400 DK / $9,700 FD)

Cowboy Chris Paddock gets a nice match up in San Francisco for a nice price here on DK, I do not like his price as much on Fan Duel though, as they have him the 3rd SP off the board. I can see Paddocks draft percentage getting higher as he looks like a great kicker to the high end guys.

Nevertheless, Paddock will be a good play throwing in a park where its easy to keep in the yard… especially when playing the giants.

Honorable Mentions: Andrew Heaney & Brandon Woodruff

Top Ace(s): Gerrit Cole $11,400 DK / $11,700 FD) & Jacob DeGrom ($12,000 / $11,200 FD)

I mean, obviously. Nose bleed prices for top end performance. Its easy to imagine that Cole will have double digit strikeouts against Baltimore.

The Red Sox however might be able to put up a tad bit of resistance, and if there ever was a time when DeGrom got beat, it was those three starts in April of last season, where he didn’t last more than 5 innings and had 3 or more Earned Runs in each start. Of course its not actually April, and I still believe the reigning Cy Young winner will roll. I may even set a couple Pocket Aces lineups today to see what the bats would have to look like.

Honorable Mention: Charlie Morton & Mike Soroka

Punt Play: Joe Musgrove ($5,300 DK / $6,700 FD)

My favorite part about Ace Day is the pure salary value provided. Musgrove had a pretty decent outing last week, 5.2IP/5h/3bb/3ER and 7Ks, and he is UNDER 6,000! Love this play tomorrow, great kicker to one of the top aces and can be paired with a value arm to load up on bats. The strikeout upside has always been there for Joe and its starting to come together. Musgrove’s second nod to hill will be to face a Brewers lineup that always seems to over perform.

Honorable Mention: Danny Duffy

Top Fade: Matthew Boyd ($9,000 DK / $8,400 FD)

Boyd looks like good value in the middle of the pack, and playing a sparse KC offense, but I am scared for Boyd and am staying away until I see that slider return home. Boyd hit two batters in the first inning and could not produce a single swinging strike until the 3rd inning! Nothing was working for Boyd and i’m very hesitant to roll him out today with all the other options available.

Honorable Mention: Rich Hill

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers – The Astros are missing their ace after Verlander went down last week, that leaves a hole in the rotation to be filled by Cristian Javier, a 23 year old who holds some great minor league strikeout numbers, but still needs work on his command.

Los Angeles Angels – Sticking in tinsel town, and picking on another youngster, the Angels get a good spot facing off the Mariners and Justin Dunn.

Value Stacks

Kansas City Royals – As I talked about above, Boyd looks lost right now, no real secondary pitch until that slider returns and a fastball that can not carry that situation.
San Diego Padres – Johnny Cueto loves to give up barrels, Tommy Pham loves to barrel the ball.

Thrive Fantasy

Using the information above, you can even make some money on Thrive Fantasy! As I said I was like the LAD Stack and you can grab the over on Mookie Betts Prop of OVER .5 hits. Check them out and use promo code “windaily” when you sign up for some extra bonuses. Learn how to play here on our quick over.

5 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: 7/28 Aces and Bases

brgrewe@gmail.com 5 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

Hopefully, you all were on the Discord last night to catch all of our discussions that lead to a very nice night of cashing! Let’s run it back today. The July 28th edition of Aces and Bases will take on the main MLB DFS slates on DraftKings and FanDuel.

The purpose of this article is to identify our top pitching plays and fades on the slate, in addition to our top offense stacks for your GPP lineups.

Please make sure you keep an eye on the weather and other factors as those are always important things to monitor when playing MLB DFS. Be sure to check out our MLB DFS Projections as well. Without further ado, it’s Aces and Bases time.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Best Value: Josh Lindblom ($5,100 DK / $6,100 FD)

If you want to load up on virtually any top-bats you’d like, well rostering Josh Lindblom is your way to doing so. It’s been quite some time since we’ve seen Lindblom in the MLB as he’s spent the last few years in the KBO. I don’t think Lindblom is a world-beater by any means, but he certainly has high strikeout upside (the 3.5K prop leads me to believe Vegas thinks otherwise) and should keep the ball in the yard.

Lindblom is a (-170) favorite facing off against a weak Pirate’s lineup who’s projected K-Rate sits right around 20%. Nothing spectacular there, but at this price, I’m going to have a lot of Lindblom and pray he keeps the walks down… because I believe that is the only way Pittsburgh would be able to knock him out early in the game.

Honorable Mention: Zach Davies

Top Ace(s): Walker Buehler ($11,300 DK / $10,500 FD) & Kyle Gibson ($9,700 / $8,200 FD)

This is one ugly slate. I’d love to jam in all of the Buehler (-130) I can, but he’s likely to be on a strict pitch limit, so if we use him, we need a lot of strikeouts. Most books are currently showing a K-Prop of only 5 strikeouts with slight juice on the over. That’s a bit concerning for me to pay top dollar for a limited Buehler, but he’s probably the safest pitcher on the slate.

Kyle Gibson (+101) is just another safer play who should keep the ball down against a Arizona squad who has only scored 7 runs thus far in the young season.

Honorable Mention: Honestly probably no one

Punt Play: Patrick Sandoval ($6,600 DK / $5,600 FD)

Did I mention that this slate is ugly? It’s setting up for a Patrick Sandoval (who’s also likely to be on a low pitch count) chalk night. He does have a respectable 4.5K prop with juice on the over, but I don’t like it. This slate is gross.

Honorable Mention: David Peterson

Top Fade: Merrill Kelly ($10,000 DK / $7,800 FD)

Kelly is $10,000 on DraftKings, lol. Kelly grades horribly in my model with an extremely high fly-ball/line-drive rate, barrels, and average exit velocity against. I wouldn’t even pay for him on FanDuel with the significant discount.

Honorable Mention: Carlos Martinez

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stacks

Texas Rangers – I mentioned that I think Merrill Kelly grades out horribly tonight… let’s get some Rangers exposure.
Boston Red Sox & New York Mets – This game has by far the highest total on this slate. I prefer going to the Mets’ side because Matt Hall profiles as an awful pitcher against this powerful New York lineup, but I’m cool with Boston bats as well. Stack em’ up!

Honorable Mention: Milwaukee Brewers & Los Angeles Angels

Value Stacks

Detroit Tigers – Love this match-up against a dumpster fire pitching staff that Kansas City is rolling out there in this series. With Kyle Zimmer slated to start and likely followed by Glenn Sparkmann or Jorge Lopez, let’s roll with the Tigers’ bats who are ridiculously cheap on both sites.

Lots of wind blowing out tonight as well.
San Diego Padres – I’ll always have a stack or two going up against Jeff Samardzija.

Prize Picks

With the Mets being one of my preferred stacks, you can grab Alonso and Cespedes on Prize Picks in a mini two man stack to win yourself some money! If they both go over their projected fantasy score, you win! Check out Prize Picks, and hop into the Discord chat if you have any questions!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter @StixPicks and be sure to sign up for a ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

10/30 DFS MLB: World Series Showdown and Prop Picks

jason mezrahi 6 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’ve got a historic Game 7 of the World Series on tap, and our 10/30 DFS picks for MLB are geared to win you green in GPPs and take down cash games!

I hope you’ve enjoyed my MLB writeups this season, and make sure you check me out on Twitter and read my NFL and PGA musings at Win Daily Sports!

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10/30 DFS MLB: DK Showdown(8:08 p.m. EST)

The game: World Series Game 7 – HoustonAstros at Washington Nationals, 8:08 p.m. EST

The Astros are favored by a half-run and projected implied totalsput them at about 4.25-4.5 runs, with the Nats around 3.75-4 runs. The last fewgames have eclipsed the projected total, so we can expect Game 7 to do thesame. It should be an exciting finish to a fun season of MLB action!

10/30 DFS SP Strategy andGame Notes

Game 7 willfeature Zack Greinke (DK$15,600/$10,400) on normal rest versus MaxScherzer (DK $16,800/$11,200), who was scratched from his Game 5 starts withdebilitating back and neck spasms, got a cortisone shot and will be on the bumpto start Game 7. High drama, folks.

Greinke haspitched adequately in the last two series against potent offenses, whichcertainly elevates those performances on a degree of difficulty level but doesn’tnecessarily inspire confidence for fantasy usefulness at his current price. TheNats hitters looked pretty locked in during the later innings last night, and I’mnot interested in forcing either of these pitchers into my lineups today –though we could see 4-5 innings with enough Ks to warrant consideration atlower exposure.

Scherzer saidhe felt “good” throwing yesterday and actually loosened up in the bullpen for aspell toward the end of Game 6 – looking every bit the part and successfully sellingthe idea that the C-shot worked. I’ll be buying a few shares in Nats-heavybuilds.

In a winner-take-all Game 7 with nothing but glory and defeat the remainingdestinies for tomorrow, we could see quick hooks for either pitcher if the stuffisn’t there after the first several batters. These bullpens aren’t as deep assome of their previous playoff counterparts, but they have a bevy of arms that couldbe forced into duty if something goes awry. There’s some equity in fading thestarters altogether and stacking bats and the right bullpen arm – which for meshould be a closer since they could be expected to throw two innings inhigh-stakes moments.

Final thoughts about pitching:

It scares me to see Greinke’s fly ball rate at 38.9 this postseason,especially with his HR/FB rate at 23.8 percent.
Scherzer will NOT want to exit this game, so expect him to challengehitters early to keep his pitch count down, except for Alex Bregman, who hewill probably walk if he can get away with it.
Patrick Corbin may pitch in this game, but his price is too oppressivefor what will be limited work. I’m not going to get cute.
We haven’t seen Houston closer Roberto Osuna since Game 3 five daysago, so he’s somebody who we could focus on at just $4K.

Let’s get to the hitters.

10/30 DFS Hitters

Jose Altuve is my favorite hitter on Houston and will be in about 90 percent of my builds. Beyond that it’s Yuri Gurriel, George Springer and Michael Brantley, in that order. I wouldn’t fault you for starting Bregman (who with the price drop they are just DARING you to plug in), Yordan Alvarez or one of the cheap outfielders or catchers (likely Robinson Chirinos but Martin Maldonado has dingers in him too).

For the Nats, I’m counting on the Astros quieting Soto – who shouldhave the highest ownership among the Washington bats, and focusing on ticked-offtable-setter Trea Turner, Asdrubal Cabrera and his wealth of experience facingGreinke (18-for-40 career with six walks and just three strikeouts), and anothervalue bat or two. Again – I wouldn’t say boo about the decision to build aroundAnthony Rendon after his late-inning blast and cold-as-ice trot around the basepaths,and Adam Eaton is very hot at the plate this series.

10/30 DFS WashingtonNationals bats

Trea Turner (DK$13,200/$8,800)

Turner gotblanked in Game 5, we went back to the well, and he went 2-for-5 with a doubleand got robbed of a third hit on one of the worst calls in World Series history,and that includes the called third strike on Victor Robles in Game 5 that was fiveor six inches off the plate. Turner will be out for blood in Game 7 and he cando plenty of damage without blowing the game open, so this play is still congruentwith my “Houston wins” narrative.

Adam Eaton (DK $11,100/$7,400)

Eaton homered last night to tie up Game 6 at 2-2,and he’s had a solid series (.333/.440/.619 with two HR and four RBI) despite goinghitless in games 4 and 5. I love his spot in the order and he makes for a completelyreasonable play at a fair price.

Spotlight Value: AsdrubalCabrera (DK $9,900/$6,600)

Cabrera has loadsof experience and has been awfully quiet – too quiet – this series and duringhis long postseason career. In 28 October games, he’s hit just two homers andtwo doubles across 104 ABs. His price has dropped yet again, and his last hitwas in Game 3. He’s long overdue for a key hit in a big spot, and since I’mleaning Houston, I’ll need to find some value with my Nats’ exposure.

More 10/30 DFS options:Anthony Rendon (DK $14,400/$9,600), Victor Robles (DK $10,200/$6,800), JuanSoto (DK $14,100/$9,400), whoever catches at whatever price.

10/30 DFS Houston Astrosbats

Jose Altuve (DK $13,800/$9,200)

Altuve is my favorite play in cash games and I’ll be using him inseveral GPP entries. The postseason resume, the ability to hit just about anypitch thrown to him and his utility and aggressiveness on the basepaths makehim the top play for the Astros, though Gurriel (power) and Springer (all-aroundleadoff hitter extraordinaire) are close behind.

Yuri Gurriel (DK $10,500/$7,000)

I’d include Gurriel as my spotlight value, but I wanted to move him up to make sure you see how much I like him in this game. He mashes right-handed pitching, but opposing managers do not bother to try and exploit the reverse splits by throwing lefties in to face him (because he’s still a 112 wRC+ vs. LHPs in 2019 with a .242 ISO). I love him here, in this park, facing whomever is on the hill for the Nats at any point in the game. Is it to much that I ask him to hit two dingers tonight?

George Springer (DK$14,400/$9,600)

Springer has 27 DK points in two of the World Series games,and averages over 8 DK PPG in the other four – which includes and 0-for-5 blankin Game 2. He’s essential in Houston builds and isn’t too expensive to fit in hitter-onlyShowdown lineups.

Spotlight Value: MichaelBrantley ($10,800/$7,200)

Brantley is still too cheap and I have a soft spot for his dadMickey, who is from a neighboring town. But my analysis here is far from justanecdotal; Brantley was hitless in game 5 and 6 and is without a HR this series,two things that have helped to keep his price down despite his eight-hit tallyin the first four games against Washington. It’s hard to say if this capablecontact hitter will break through with a home run tonight, but his .191 ISO in2019 was the highest of his career, and he was a slightly better hitter at home(140 wRC+ in Minute Maid vs. 127 on the road).

More 10/30 DFS options: Alex Bregman (DK $12,600/$8,400), Carlos Correa (DK $11,400/$7,600), Josh Reddick (DK $6,000/$4,000), Robinson Chirinos ($7,500/$5,000)

Sample DK GPP lineup #1 (Main narrative – Houston win)

CPT – J. Altuve ($13,800)

UTIL – G. Springer ($9,800)

UTIL – T, Turner ($8,800)

UTIL – Y. Gurriel ($7,000)

UTIL – A. Cabrera ($6,600)

UTIL – R.Osuna ($4,000)

Sample DK GPP lineup #2 (Balanced& low-scoring w/ Gurriel 3-R HR)

CPT – Y. Gurriel ($10,500)

UTIL – M. Scherzer ($11,200)

UTIL – Z. Greinke ($10,400)

UTIL – A. Cabrera ($6,600)

UTIL – M. Brantley ($7,200)

UTIL – R. Osuna ($4,000)

Sample DK GPP lineup #3 (Natswin a score-fest, Doolittle closes)

CPT – A. Cabrera ($9,900)

UTIL – T. Turner ($8,800)

UTIL – A. Rendon ($9,600)

UTIL – J. Altuve ($9,200)

UTIL – A. Bregman ($8,400)

UTIL – S. Doolittle ($3,800)

10/30 DFS Hitters forFD Single-game

You know the routine – no pitchers to consider so we can have somefun with the hitters!

Sample FD GPP lineup #1

MVP (2x) – Altuve ($8,500)

All-Star (1.5x) – Gurriel ($6,000)

UTIL – Turner ($7,500)

UTIL – Cabrera ($5,500)

UTIL – Brantley ($7,500)

Sample FD GPP lineup #2

MVP (2x) – Gurriel ($6,000)

All-Star (1.5x) – Altuve ($8,500)

UTIL – Springer ($9,500)

UTIL – Gomes ($4,000)

UTIL – Eaton ($6,500)

Sample FD GPP lineup #3

MVP (2x) – Turner ($7,000)

All-Star (1.5x) – Altuve ($8,500)

UTIL – Gurriel ($6,000)

UTIL – Brantley ($7,500)

UTIL – Robles ($5,500)

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HR Challenge — Pick the Players that will get the most Home Runs

Goal: 0.50, Prize: 2x — Yuri Gurriel, George Springer, Jose Altuve

I think the Nats pitchers will avoid Alex Bregman, but one of these Houston hitters will end up hitting a bomb in Game 7. Minute Maid Park treats right-handed hitters especially well and these guys could easily punch a couple out of the yard.

6 years ago 0 comments

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

10/22 DFS MLB: World Series Showdown and Prop Picks

StixPicks 6 years ago

written by StixPicks

The World Series gets underway tonight in Houston, and we’ve got your 10/22 DFS picks for MLB at Win Daily Sports. Lets win some green!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

10/22 DFS MLB: DK Showdown(8:08 p.m. EST)

The game: World Series Game 1 – Washington Nationals at HoustonAstros, 8:08 p.m. EST

10/22 DFS SP Strategy and Picks

Rostering Houston starter Gerrit Cole in the Captain slot is a major priority. Cole started his career in the NL with the Pirates, and these Nats hitters are collectively slashing .227/.265/.340 against him in 97 total AB.

Batters from either side of the plate were below a .250wOBA & xwOBA against Cole this season. His home wOBA, in a hitters’ parkwas just .229. He issued just 19 walks at home compared to 174 Ks for acompletely ridiculous 9.16 K/BB ratio.

Cole has a 0.40 ERA with 32 Ks in 22.2 IP this postseason.He struck out 326 batters over 212.1 IP and cruised to a 20-5 record with a0.89 WHIP and 2.48 xFIP. His lefty-righty splits (2.43 xFIP vs. LHBs and 2.52xFIP vs. RHBs) don’t show any pronounced differences.

Scherzer is fine to pair with Cole in cash games, though wemight try to mix things up a bit in GPPs – as fading Scherzer and picking the rightHouston bats could work.

Morenotes:

Offensively, both teams are capable, but Houston has the edge – since they get more offense from the entire order and have a .355 team wOBA and 125 wRC+. The Nats came in at .336 xOBA and 102 wRC+.
The game total opened at just 6.5, with some Vegas books offering 7, and The Astros range from -190 to -210 favorites – putting the implied totals at 3.5 to 4 for the Astros and about 3.0 for Washington.
This should be a game without a lot of offense, so in GPPs, we’re essentially looking for home run power from unlikely sources – with catchers and bench players possibly playing an important role.
Stay tuned to the starting lineups – we could get some value from the bottom of both orders.

10/22 DFS Hitters

It’s going to be toughto find the right bats for the 10/22 DFS Showdown, but I have all the confidencein the world we can do it. The pricingis reasonable for a couple Houston bats I’m high on, and there’s a relativelycheap Nats’ hitter that provides the kind of upside we’re looking for in the difficultmatchup against Cole.

10/22 DFS Washington Nationalsbats

AnthonyRendon (DK $14,100/$9,400)

The Nats’ third baseman is the best hitter on the team, posting a1.013 OPS in the 2019 regular season. He had at least one hit in every game of thepostseason except Game 1 of the NLDS and provides the most general upside ofany hitter in the Nats lineup. I won’t be 100%, but I’ll have plenty ofexposure in the balanced lineups I build.

TreaTurner (DK $13,200/$8,800)

If Turner can get onbase, which he’s shown a knack for doing (career-high .353 OBP in 2019), he canget something going. Solving Cole won’t be easy, but the Yankees managed to getnine baserunners (4 hits, 5 BB) versus Cole in Game 3. Turner has power, speedand the patience to get aboard (he’s also drawn three walks in this postseason)against anyone.

JuanSoto (DK $12,600/$8,400)

The junk-grabbing shuffle he’s doing against certain pitchers is pretty hilarious, and it even has its own Twitter page, but it’s testament to the confidence this young hitter flaunts at the dish. He’s hit a couple big homers this postseason and finished the 2019 regular season with a .394 wOBA – a number that jumps to .414 versus RHPs. Soto won’t be intimidated by Cole and stands as good a shot as any to take him deep, so I’ll be including him on my short list of Nats hitters that have what can be considered a “favorable” matchup – favorable being a relative term against a stud like Cole.

SpotlightValue: Matt Adams (DK $6,900/$4,600)

Adams will should see ABs for the Nationals – he’s 4-for-17 career off Cole with a HR and 5 Ks. He and Michael Taylor (1-for-6, HR, 2 Ks) are the only Nats hitters to have taken Cole deep. If he starts, Adams is my free square. He’s had a rough September/October, and has just three plate appearances in the 2019 postseason, but he’s had more ABs against Cole than anyone else except Asdrubal Cabrera. He’s also got a history of some October clout on his resume.

Otheroptions: Howie Kendrick (DK $11,400/$7,600), Adam Eaton (DK $8,100/$5,400),Victor Robles (DK $7,800/$5,200), Kurt Suzuki (DK $7,500/$5,000), MichaelTaylor (DK $6,600/$4,400)

10/22 DFS Houston Astros bats

AlexBregman (DK $13,800/$9,200)

Bregman’s bat was pretty quiet during the Yankees series, but I expect it to come alive in the World Series for two reasons: First, the Nationals pitchers – Scherzer especially – will challenge the AL MVP candidate a lot more than New York did. Secondly, Bregman only hit one homer in the postseason (against the Rays), but he’s carrying a .435 OBP through 11 games this October and sporting a wRC+ of 139 during that span. That tells me there’s nothing wrong with his plate approach or his bat.

CarlosCorrea (DK $10,200/$6,800)

The value we’re gettingon Correa is worth noting, as is the fact that he popped a couple homers in theALCS. The last couple days have offered him a chance to rest his ailing back,and as I mentioned before, the Nats pitchers are going to challenge Houstonhitters in ways that the Yankees didn’t have to – based on their elite bullpen.We forget about him because Houston is so loaded with talent, but Correa has a114 wRC+ in 181 postseason plate appearances, and he’s a 25-year-old in the primeof his career.

JoseAltuve (DK $14,100/$9,600)

The Game 6 hero is riding a wave into the World Series and should draw considerable ownership based on his game-winning efforts against the Bronx Bombers. He’s capable of filling up the state sheet with runs, hits and SBs, not to mention the occasional two-run walk-off homer. Pricing is more than fair and I’ll have some shares, but my ownership on Bregman and Correa might be a little higher.

Spotlight Value: Michael Brantley (DK $8,400/$5,600)

TheDK pricing algorithm seems to giving way too much credence to Brantley’spostseason numbers, which are admittedly weak from a career standpoint(.224/.293/.269 slash in 75 plate appearances). He’s carrying a respectable .340OBP this October despite struggling against a slew of excellent Yankees pitchers,but he’s done quite well in a pretty large BvP sample against Scherzer,slashing .341/.367/.636 in 44 career ABs with eight doubles and a HR. The restof the Astros have faced Mad Max 11 times or fewer, but Brantley feels like thefree square on Houston, especially bating out of the 3-hole. He’s my favoritevalue bat in the Showdown.

Other10/22 DFS options: Yuri Gurriel (DK $9,000/$6,000), George Springer (DK $13,500/$9,000),Martin Maldonado ($6,000/$4,000), Yordan Alvarez ($10,800/$7,200), Josh Reddick(DK $6,600/$4,400)

SampleDK Lineup (Houston-heavy: Cole as CPT with no Scherzer)

CPT – G. Cole ($18,000)
UTIL – A. Bregman (9,200)
UTIL – C. Correa ($6,800)
UTIL – M. Brantley ($5,600)
UTIL – A. Eaton ($5,400)
UTIL – M. Adams ($4,600)

SampleDK Lineup (Balanced: Cole as CPT with Scherzer at UTIL)

CPT – G. Cole ($18,000)
UTIL – M. Scherzer ($11,400)
UTIL – Y. Gurriel ($6,000)
UTIL – M. Brantley ($5,600)
UTIL – M. Adams ($4,600)
UTIL – M. Taylor ($4,400)

SampleDK lineup (Astros-heavy with both SP and Houston closer included)

CPT – G. Cole ($18,000)
UTIL – M. Scherzer ($11,400)
UTIL – C. Correa ($6,800)
UTIL – M. Brantley ($5,600)
UTIL – M. Adams ($4,600)
UTIL – R. Osuna ($3,000)

SampleDK lineup (Astros-heavy with Brantley at CPT and no Scherzer – GPP)

CPT – M. Brantley ($8,400)
UTIL – G. Cole ($12,000)
UTIL – A. Bregman ($9,200)
UTIL – J. Soto ($8,400)
UTIL – C. Correa ($6,800)
UTIL – M. Adams ($4,600)

10/22 DFS Hitters for FDSingle-game

Here we can just load upon Astros hitter and pick or (or two, in some cases) Nats hitters to meetrequirements and/or get a little bit squirrely.

SampleFD lineup #1

MVP (2x) – Bregman ($8,500)
All-Star (1.5x) – Brantley ($7,000)
UTIL – Correa ($7,500)
UTIL – Turner ($7,000)
UTIL – Adams ($4,000)

SampleFD lineup #2 ($0 left)

MVP (2x) – Bregman ($8,500)
All-Star (1.5x) – Altuve ($9,500)
UTIL – Correa ($7,500)
UTIL – Gurriel ($5,500)
UTIL – Adams ($4,000)

SampleFD lineup (Balanced)

MVP (2x) – Brantley ($7,000)
All-Star (1.5x) – Bregman ($8,500)
UTIL – Soto ($8,000)
UTIL – Kendrick ($6,000)
UTIL – Gurriel ($5,500)

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Total Home Runs — Goal: 1.50, Prize: 4x

Bregman, Brantley and Soto

I like these three for their matchups, though Brantley is a bit of a wild card. You can take the easy money with a 2x win if one of these guys goes deep, or count on two dingers to get 4x. Good luck!

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6 years ago 0 comments

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