DFS MLB Picks

Baseball is finally BACK on Thursday, April 1st, Opening Day 2021 and there’s a pretty full MLB DFS FanDuel slate for us attack tournament and cash games.

For this Aces and Bases article, we’re focused ONLY on FanDuel and specifically for the loaded Opening Day slate, starting at 1:05PM ET. With eleven games crammed into roughly seven to eight hours (ending with the 4pm ET games) on Thursday afternoon/evening, we have plenty of options for all formats.

However, it’s spring and the weather is often turbulent this time of year. So, please make sure you keep an eye on the weather and other factors as those are always important things to monitor when playing MLB DFS.

Be sure to check out our MLB DFS Projections as well. Without further ado, it’s Aces and Bases time.

Here’s a look at the schedule for this slate as well as the current pitching match-ups:

MLB DFS: The Aces

Best Value: Luis Castillo vs. STL ($8,900 FD)

Castillo is a hard-throwing pitcher with a lot of heat. Those of you who have played a lot of MLB DFS know Castillo has a high ceiling due to his high 25%+ K-rate through most of his career.

Luis’ career K-rate against the Cardinals is 24.3%, or 8.8 per 9 innings, and he’s maintained a low 3.80 xFIP against the Cards. While he’s given up 1.5 home runs per nine against the Cards throughout his career, he didn’t give up any through nine last season.

There are a lot of great pitchers on the mound opening day, a few may pile up more points than Castillo, but he’s likely going to be in the top five, for a very reasonable FanDuel Salary.

Honorable Mentions: Jack Flaherty @ CIN

Top Ace(s): Tyler Glasnow @MIA ($10,000 FD) / Yu Darvish vs ARI ($10,700 FD)

We’re looking at nearly identical pitching career stats with equally solid match-ups for this MLB DFS Opening Day slate.

Glasnow has a 28.5% K-rate throughout his career, while Darvish has a 29.9% rate. They’re both averaging around 11 K’s/9-innings and have career xFIP’s well below four.

Neither give up a lot of long-balls, and you’d have to give Darvish the nudge if you’re trying to avoid walks. But you do pay more of a premium for less risk.

Looking at total points per salary, I’d lean a little harder toward Glasnow, but Darvish is an equally dominate option at this price-point.

Honorable Mention: Clayton Kershaw @ COL

Punt Play: Kyle Gibson @ KC ($6,900 FD)

Gibson is generally a risky play mostly against better hitting teams than the Royals. That’s what makes this punt play more appealing. The risk, though, is his incredible inconsistency.

Kyle piled up 13 K’s over two quality starts against the Astros late last season. He also fanned eight hitters over five innings against the Dodgers. So, there’s some pretty incredible upside with this play.

But, I’d bank on a solid 20 to 30 FanDuel point play and use the salary savings on some heavy hitters.

Honorable Mentions: Chad Kuhl @ CHC

Top Fade: Madison Bumgarner @ SD ($7,700 FD)

Why MadBum? Well, you’re getting a pitcher struggling toward what appears to be the decline of his career facing one of the most prolific rising lineups in baseball, in their own park. Hard. Pass.

Honorable Mention: John Means @ BOS

MLB DFS: The Bases

The good news with the weather forecast for Opening Day is that there appear to be now rain, snow, or storm risks. The bad news is that some of the games in the North and East are going to be quite cold.

Still, we can mostly factor weather risk out of this slate.

Top Stacks

1. Los Angeles Dodgers – The Dodgers are playing in Coors field, the end. OK, OK…fine. The Dodgers have one of the best lineups in baseball, with smashers like Corey Seager ($4,500 FD), Cody Bellinger ($4,600 FD), and Mookie Betts ($4,800) in their lineup. They’re playing in one of the most hitter friendly parks in baseball. Is that better?

Value Stacks

1. San Diego Padres – How could a lineup getting tons of fantasy baseball attention like the Padres be a value play? Well, Josh Rojas ($2,000 FD), Will Myers ($2,900 FD), Tommy Pham ($3,000), and Eric Hosmer ($3,400 FD) make getting double-digit point plays per position pretty easy to do in this MLB DFS slate.

MLB DFS Opening Day 2021 Summary

Glasnow or Darvish are likely your top ACES for this slate, but Castillo is you’re overall best value. You should also consider Gibson if you’re in need of a punt play and want to load up on bashers like the Dodgers in Coors Field.

The Padres have some bashers as well, and a great hitting to pitcher match-up for this MLB DFS slate on Opening Day. But, the Padres also have some of the best FanDuel value plays of the slate as well.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter @MattyMcMatty17 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate.