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DFS Golf Ownership

Genesis Invitational Picks: All you need to know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Justin Thomas looks set for a strong showing in our Genesis Invitational Picks — Justin Thomas looks set for a strong showing headlining our Genesis Invitational Picks

The WM Phoenix Open played out perhaps even better than the PGA Tour could have hoped. As we moved into our first full field designated event for 2023, the leaderboard was littered with studs. Although we don’t expect him to feature, it will be great to see Tiger Woods return to play here. But, it is worthy to know that a few value plays can still pop through for a ceiling week. Nick Taylor played brilliantly all week, even shooting a 65 in the final round, and still came up short of a resurgent Scottie Scheffler. It is a promising reminder that there is still value to find in these events as we move into our Genesis Invitational Picks.

We had a very live chance in Xander Schauffele as our favourite play for the week. Schauffele was one off the lead 2/3rd of the way through Saturday. An untimely bogey on the 13th was a stopper to his momentum. He never ever really recovered. The final round still showed promise with decent approach numbers. 6 of 9 putts missed by less than 25 inches truly put paid to his chances. It happens.

Jhonnatan Vegas continues to show a quick return to form following his planned surgery in August last year. Sitting within the top 10 through the first 3 rounds, a final round 73 saw him move backwards through the field. It does, however, mark consecutive top 25s for Vegas. He secured us another Top 40 cash. More on him shortly as he makes our Genesis Invitational picks.

Course Analysis & Comp Courses for our Genesis Invitational Picks

Much like TPC Scottsdale, we have plenty of data from The Riviera Country Club to aid our Genesis Invitational picks this week. Scottie Scheffler only aided to the fact prior course form has some of the highest correlation to future success at the WM Phoenix Open compared to anywhere on tour. Nearly as much weight should placed on this here for our Genesis Invitational picks.

Riviera remains highly correlated, even though less so than TPC Scottsdale. This iconic course demands a variety of shots in each direction. You will really find a flat approach shot on the course. Despite the large green complexes in excess of 7,500 sq ft on average, precise approach play is still required. The greens here play very firm and fast. Akin to the fairways, they are highly undulated and protected by deep bunkers. The reduction in greens in regulation compared to other tour stops can be further explained by this ranking in the 5 most difficult courses to find (and hold) the fairway.

Along with past form here, for our Genesis Invitational picks the parallels to Augusta National are obvious. So often this has provided a great guide to The Masters. TPC San Antonio also provides a guide, with both courses sharing a high correlation to success from around the green play. Copperhead, host of the Valspar Championship, also fits the eye here with narrow tree lined fairways and the need for shot shaping.

Weather

It is worth noting the course superintendent makes reference to the heavy rainfall experienced in LA so far this year. The first three weeks of 2023 saw 10.25″ of rain, for a city which receives on average 11.7″ for an entire year. Although there has been some respite the last week, you would have to imagine the course will be lush. It is doubtful the course will play very soft, but may not be as penal as we expect and should guide our Genesis Invitational picks.

It does look very cold this week in LA. Both mornings indicate temperatures in the single digits Celsius (low 40s). Thursday morning looks particularly cold at 4C (40F) and gusty. The wind should ease a little as the day goes on as well as temperatures rising in the forecast sun. Friday AM looks slightly warmer from 9C (48F) and again warming as the day goes on. Winds should be fairly consistent all day Friday.

I do note that despite Poa Annua having a tendency to get bumpy and inconsistent after foot traffic, the mornings do look tough particularly on Thursday. I suspect Thursday PM/Friday AM groups will get a slight advantage this week of between 0.5-0.8 strokes.

https://www.windy.com/34.046/-118.502?icon,33.526,-118.502,8,m:eBTacRE

Genesis Invitational Picks

Suggested Staking

Justin Thomas
2.5pts E/W $17.00 (6 places, 1/5 odds)

Tyrrell Hatton
2pts E/W $46.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)

Si Woo Kim
1pt E/W $81.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $4.33

Alex Noren
1pt E/W $91.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $4.00

Wyndham Clark
1pt E/W $101.00 (6 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $4.35

Jhonattan Vegas
0.5pts E/W $201.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
3pts Top 20 $5.75

Golfer Profiles

Justin Thomas – Our Genesis Invitational Picks Favourite

Justin Thomas headlines our selections this week. Although a name widely floated in the industry this week, it is our view it is for good reason. A string of mediocre tournaments of approach play led to a 6 months at the end of 2022 where he managed just one top 5, coming in a strong but reduced field of the Tour Championship at that.

Typically a hallmark of JT’s impending success, the approach play looks to be back. Thomas is 3rd in the world across the last two years for SG: APP from 150-200 yards, the key distance to target here. Having gained over 4 strokes on approach at the Farmers Insurance Open, JT continued to show improvement last week. Having lost SG: APP in round 1, Thomas then was 13th for SG: APP in round 3 and lead the field by some margin in round 4.

2nd, 6th, and 9th here ticks the course form box as do a raft of top 25 or better finishes at the other comp courses. What never went missing was his elite short game, having not lost for SG: ATG since June 2022. He looks primed for success and arrives at a track that suits his game perfectly.

Tyrrell Hatton

Hatton arrives in excellent form at a course that should suit his game well. Hatton was 4th for SG: APP last week and also gained a huge number of strokes on the field through driving accuracy. All provide indicators of a player comfortable with his swing as he finished 6th in a strong field.

The only thing that held him from a win was an outlier week around and on the greens. Ranking 14th in SG: Putt and 22nd for SG: ATG in this field suggest we should see some reversion to his long-term mean.

The main factor that looks to influence his price this week is a sole appearance here for a missed cut. Hatton has an excellent record at Emirates Golf Club, which is highly correlated to Augusta National and complementary to here. I prefer to look at the fact he has played here before as a positive, as he arrives at a course that rewards short game and his approach numbers suit too.

Si Woo Kim

Correlated course form jumps off the page for Si Woo Kim, who is enjoying a rich vein of form. Following his Sony Open victory, Si Woo has secured three consecutive top 25 finishes. Those results have come at a variety of courses, from the shorter tracks at The American Express to the long Torrey Pines.

Si Woo has a 3rd here previously, a record of 4-23-13 at TPC San Antonio, and a recent 12th at The Masters. Despite lacking distance on some of his peers in this field, he is long enough to be competitive. Across the weekend at the Phoenix Open, Si Woo was 2nd and 11th for SG: OTT. In the key approach metric, Si Woo is 11th in the world over the last year for SG: APP from 150-200 yards. And, he has certainly previously found joy on these tricky putting surfaces:

https://twitter.com/odysseygolf/status/1228367735450558465?s=20

Alex Noren

Alex Noren squeaked into the Genesis Invitational picks this week just ahead of Fleetwood, Power, Hossler, and JJ Spaun. Part of that is a nagging feeling that we didn’t see the best of him last week and to dismiss his credentials on the basis of that may be short-sighted.

Noren missed the cut on the number, hampered by a poor opening round in tricky conditions. The 2nd round was much improved, sitting 10th in SG: APP and making a decent charge at making the weekend. He is 24th for SG: ATG over the last 2 years and 5th for SG: PUTT. That then goes to 1st for SG: PUTT, 21st for SG: APP, and 7th for SG: TOTAL if looking at a shorter 3 month time frame.

Alongside Emirates Golf Club form, Noren has never missed a cut here including a 12th and 16th. A 12th and 21st at the Valspar Championship in his two appearances is a further boost here.

Wyndham Clark – Our Genesis Invitational Picks Best Value

In our 2022 season recap, I predicted that both Aaron Wise and Wyndham Clark looked set for a big year. Clark has already begun to show some of that promise in what could well become his best season.

Clark sits 3rd in this field for SG: ATG, 16th for SG: T2G, and 19th for SG: TOTAL over the last 3 months. Most eye-catching is the improvement of his iron play: his perennial pitfall thus far. He was 7th for SG: APP last week in the stacked WM Phoenix Open field when eventually finishing 10th. That follows improvement of 15th in that metric at the Farmers Insurance Open.

He already holds a 17th and 8th here (followed by a DQ for signing an incorrect scorecard). For a course which has proven difficult for debutants, that shows a lot of potential. Should it all come together, this could be the venue of a surprise breakthrough victory.

Jhonattan Vegas

As promised, we round out our Genesis Invitational Picks with Jhonny Vegas. It remains to be seen what Vegas needs to do to see a shortening in price. We are happy to include him for the third consecutive tournament until it does, as there is certainly value to be had here.

Per our previous write-ups, Vegas had planned surgery following the end of season playoffs. It looks to have paid dividends near immediately, with consecutive top 25 finishes. Vegas continues to display excellent approach metrics, has gained SG: OTT in his last 11 starts, and has seen an uptick in driving accuracy since his return.

Vegas was 7th for SG: ATG at the WM Phoenix Open and 5th for SG: OTT. There were also flashes with his iron play, with round 3 a finish for SG: APP 18th also notable. He looks to be in decent form and arrives at an event where he has finished 15th and 12th previously. Sitting as long as 250/1 without places he is well worth a look here having not done much wrong since return, arriving at perhaps a better fit for his game, and presenting great value.

For an article with insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here: https://windailysports.com/golf-betting-101/

2 years ago 0 comments

Sports Betting PGA Premium

WM Phoenix Open Picks: All You Need to Know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Xander Schauffele leads our WM Phoenix Open Picks at TPC Scottsdale — Xander Schauffele can turn his elite course form into another PGA Tour victory

Another week and it was a consecutive runner-up finish for our picks! That keeps our run of selecting a golfer in the Top 5 or better at every PGA Tour event in 2023. It truly has been a great start to the year. In this instance, it was Brendon Todd who secured 2nd behind Justin Rose in a heavily wind delayed Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Another runner-up, this time at 70/1, and we are well in profit for the year. The hot streak shows no signs of stopping any time soon with our WM Phoenix Open Picks!

The WM Phoenix Open represents the first full field of the designated events since the PGA Tour meetings in 2022. Chiefly, this was a direct attempt to negate the effect of LIV Golf on the tour. This sees a field of Major championship calibre competing for a generous $20m purse. Let’s get into it!

Course Analysis

TPC Scottsdale plays host to this event as it has done since 1987. Do note some substantial redesign work was completed in 2014. The course now provides a sterner test which has become renowned as an all around test of a golfer’s game. As such, the cream often rises to the top here. The winner has been priced at 50/1 or less at every tournament since those renovations. 5 out of 8 of those winners have been at 30/1 or shorter.

Trends are nice, but not always informative. Therefore, this should not be the sole influence to your WM Phoenix Open Picks. Remember, we are looking for value not necessarily winners. For an article with insights on what this means and my golf analysis process, check this link here: https://windailysports.com/golf-betting-101/

Ball-striking is well-linked to success here. Somewhat overlooked by others in the industry this week is that this course is also a major factor. Solely looking at SG: T2G would exclude one of the key indicators for potential success. The greens here are very large at over 7,000 sq feet on average. Ideally, we want elite ball strikers who can then give us a chance of making putts. Especially, the putting statistics might come into play with some long putts required. The greens are playing ultra fast and firm, as are the fairways. Rough is not overly penal at just 2 inches ryegrass.

Comp Courses for our WM Phoenix Open Picks

This course is one of the highest correlations between prior course form and future success. In fact, the only courses with greater correlation are Augusta National, Waialae, and Bay Hill. As a matter of fact, Bay Hill is a decent course comp for this track, as is the 2022 PGA Championship host Southern Hills and Houston Open host Memorial Park. Those three said courses have played a key role in determining our WM Phoenix Open Picks.

Weather

Alongside a dry course with no rain in the forecast, there is wind to contend with here. Consequently, this should add to those aforementioned firm and fast conditions. Expect higher missed fairways per usual, as holding the short grass becomes more difficult. It is also forecast to be cold all week, particularly in the mornings.

The winds at this stage have not resulted in any discernible edge for a weather draw. Generally, increased winds are expected both on the afternoon of the Thursday and Friday. Overall, gusts look to be at a similar strength across both days. However, Friday AM may end up windier than Thursday AM. Accordingly, it may be worthy building some lines with exclusively Thursday AM/Friday PM tee-times to cover an eventuality where Friday AM ends up particularly tumultuous.

https://www.windy.com/33.640/-111.915?icon,33.117,-111.915,8,m:eBfac2D

2023 WM Phoenix Open Picks

Suggested Staking

Xander Schauffele – Your 2023 WM Phoenix Open Picks Favourite Play
2.5pts E/W $17.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)

Alex Noren
2pts E/W $67.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)

Shane Lowry
2pts E/W $71.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)

Keith Mitchell – Your 2023 WM Phoenix Open Picks Best Value
1pt E/W $76.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
3pts Top 20 $3.60

Lucas Herbert
1pt E/W $81.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $4.50

Chris Kirk
1pt E/W $91.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $4.50

Jhonattan Vegas
0.5pt E/W $201.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
1pt Top 20 $6.50
2pts Top 40 $2.70

Golfer Profiles

Xander Schauffele – Your 2023 WM Phoenix Open Picks Favourite Play

Firstly, Xander Schauffele leads our WM Phoenix Open Picks. Xander emphatically shook off his (somewhat undeserved) reputation for having difficulty crossing the winners line. Wins at the Zurich Classic, Travelers Championship, and Genesis Scottish Open all contributed to a stellar year in 2022.

At 17/1, there is real value in the number on offer where fair odds would place him more in the space of a 14/1 chance. Correlated form bounds off the page for Xander. Across his obvious course form here, at Bay Hill, and at Southern Hills, he has never finished worse than 24th in those 7 starts.

In fact, he ranks 2nd in true SG at this course for any golfer with more than 4 rounds played. Leading that is Matsuyama, who I can easily fade this week given his indifferent form and possible long-term lingering injury concerns. Scheffler and Rahm follow closely

Notably, this form includes a 3rd and 2nd here in his last two appearances. Previous fears of a neck injury for Xander at the Sentry Tournament of Champions look to now be gone. He returned just two weeks later to finish 3rd at The American Express and followed that with a 13th around the tougher Torrey Pines course at the Farmers Insurance Open. He is fit, in great form, and arrives at a course which is one of his favourites on the PGA Tour.

Alex Noren

Alex Noren looks to be back at his best having finished in the Top 5 in his last three starts. In November, Noren finished 4th at the Houston Open where Memorial Park presents strong links to TPC Scottsdale. That result came from nowhere after a very indifferent 42nd in a weak field at Mayakoba, suggesting the type of track that suits his eye.

He has kept that recent form at other desert courses in the Middle East. A 2nd at the DP World Tour Championship behind one Jon Rahm, when we had Noren in our tips at long odds, and a 5th at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship both present elite form in two Rolex Series events.

Alex Noren ranks 1st in this field for SG: PUTT and 26th for SG: APP over the last 3 months. Those two metrics together provide a nice recipe for success on this track of pin seekers who can then make putts when needed.

The course history and comp course performances are stout. A 6th here last year alongside a 44th and 21st when in worse form in 2018/19 both joining the 4th place at the Houston Open. He was an obvious must include for our WM Phoenix Open Picks.

Shane Lowry

Shane Lowry had statistically the best year of his career in 2022, surpassing even his 2019 season when he won The Open Championship and Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship.

Lowry was perhaps unlucky to secure just the one win, although it was a big one in the BMW PGA Championship when he backed him for the win as he secured the flagship event on the DP World Tour. We also had him as our favourite play when he finished 3rd at The Masters, and somehow he continues to be overlooked despite being amongst the true elite players of this era.

I believe leading people astray was a missed cut at the Dubai Desert Classic last start. It should be noted that event was severely weather affected, including losing a full day of play, and there was a significant draw bias that formed as a result. However, strike a line through that and his form reads beautifully. Over the last 12 months, he ranks 8th in this field for SG: APP.

In terms of correlated form, a 23rd at Southern Hills in the PGA Championship was better than it looked again suffering from a large draw bias. He also holds a 11th at Memorial Park and a 6th and 16th here at TPC Scottsdale from 2016 and 2017 respectively.

Lowry is a better golfer now and, despite being a stronger field, he simply should not be as long as 70/1. He also recently fired his caddy, due to losing their competitive spark. Given he is playing so well, that is promising to his confidence in his game at the moment. And we have often seen a golfer make such a change and immediately spike in performance, which may well happen here.

Keith Mitchell – Your 2023 WM Phoenix Open Picks Best Value

It was close between Lowry and Mitchell who would earn the tag of “best value” for this week. Keith Mitchell will typically give you some excellent driving, with gains both on distance and accuracy.

He is also gaining significantly on approach lately, finishing in the Top 30 for SG: APP in his last two starts. Entering here on the back of a 22nd and 4th, both coming at shorter courses which for me are not Mitchell’s best fits, is certainly promising.

Again, the comp course form really pops here. Mitchell was 9th in November at Memorial Park, finished 34th at Southern Hills when in dreadful form of MC-MC-76 in his three prior starts, and has a 5th and 6th around Bay Hill. To boot, he finished 10th at TPC Scottsdale at last year’s edition.

As always with Mitchell, it will come down to his putting for the week. Given his recent form filling him with confidence, and his prior form on these greens, it presents a promising opportunity for Mitchell to secure his 2nd PGA Tour victory.

Lucas Herbert

Our WinDaily family will know I have a soft spot for Lucas Herbert in windy conditions, which we may well encounter this week. Irrespective of that, Herbert simply presents as a golfer in great form with excellent results at similar events.

Herbert arrives off two stellar tournaments in the desert. A 3rd at the Dubai Desert Classic continued his rich association with that event (and makes the 250/1 on offer for him at The Masters even more absurd). He followed that with a 3rd at the Saudi International. That was not necessarily a weak field as the Asian Tour’s flagship event, won by Abe Ancer with Cam Young in 2nd.

Other correlated form comes at Southern Hills when finishing 13th, where we had backed him at 300/1. He also finished 7th around Bay Hill at the Arnold Palmer, when we also had him at 200/1. Although we sadly can’t find him at those juicy triple figure odds here, that is largely down to his more obvious recent form than the more nuanced indicators in his game I look for.

Lucas Herbert is the inverse of many profiles we look for. He is one of the best putters in the world, ranking 4th over the last 2 years and 2nd in the last 12 months for SG: PUTT from this field. What we want to see from Herbert is a spike round with his irons. Given his recent form, he looks to be hitting the ball beautifully and could well contend on this desert track.

Chris Kirk

The numbers around Kirk are rather absurd for a golfer who arrives here following two consecutive 3rd place finishes. It becomes even more baffling when we deep dive some of his prior form on related courses.

Kirk finished 14th here in 2022, to compliment prior performances of an 11th and 24th. In 2022, he also finished 5th at Bay Hill as well as a 5th at the PGA Championship around Southern Hills. Those were his two best finishes for the year, and the fact they both came at correlated courses to here whilst in elite fields is extremely promising.

He is not the longest off the tee, which is not overly detrimental. This is a course played at altitude which will also be playing very firm and fast. In fact, his superior driving accuracy could prove beneficial as will his excellent iron play. Kirk ranks at 9th for SG:APP over the last 3 months, 10th for SG: PUTT, and 12th for SG: T2G in this field. Those are outrageous numbers considering the strength of field on offer, as well as his price.

Jhonattan Vegas

Finally, we go back to Jhonny Vegas here having not done much wrong for us last time out at the Farmers. Vegas secured a Top 40 place for us there, as he returns from planned shoulder surgery in August of 2022.

Vegas look to be straight into it. He gained on the field for driving distance and accuracy in his two tournament starts this year. He has also gained on SG: APP in both appearances. If we take a longer term look at his form, we find a player who ranks 16th in SG: OTT and 23rd for SG: APP in this field, as well as 32nd for SG: TOTAL, over the last two years.

Jhonattan Vegas finished 10th at his last appearance here in 2019, as well as holding a 23rd at Bay Hill that same year. Overall, that is a lot of value for a player at 200/1 who has been largely forgotten about in fields of late due to a planned absence he looks fully recovered from. We won’t and happily go right back to him here at a big price.

2 years ago 0 comments

PGA Premium

DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections for The WM Phoenix Open

cdenny99@hotmail.com 2 years ago

written by cdenny99@hotmail.com

Welcome to the biggest cocktail party on a golf course. There’s the 16th hole, a stadium hole, where golfers fling bling like rock stars to adoring fans surrounding the green. There will be 350,000 fans this year, the max they allow through the turnstiles. The field is as loaded as the patrons watching will be. With a strong field the WM Phoenix Open DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections are designed to get you the leverage, value and reduced ownership to make a run at the take downs.

Recent Results

S Noh. Brent Grant. Kevin Yu. Noh was our main Frisky Biscuit, he made the cut and brought leverage at 1.3% ownership, We also put out two Showdown plays with Brent Grant, WHO?(less than 1% owned, .3%) and Yu (under 5%) that moved up the board with birdies and Eagles. These plays went out on the Win Daily Sports Discord channel the night before they played. The leverage, value and low salary and ownership makes these plays solid gold, not to mention they allow you to roster higher priced premium players. This brings our updated record to 25-6 for golfers that are in the 6K salary range that most players find impossible to roster.

At Win Daily Sports we know the only work that pays off is hard work! Use promo code “Green” for a free test drive to access the best intel with shows, podcasts, articles and expert chat in Discord to get your DFS bankroll rolling. It’s an unbelievable 5.99 a week to subscribe and get this amazing access.

The Course – The Field

This tourney will be played on one course all four days where shot link will be stuffing the stats we need to remain competitive. The days of the 54 hole cut, three rounds on three courses circus is behind us. 14 pro golfers W/D early at Pebble Beach and I can understand why. These next 3 tourneys are ones I’m very fond of and should do very well for us. The field strength is elite which helps when it comes to finding those gems in the 6 and 7K range.

Whether to trust the Weather

At present the weather is calling for cooler temps at opening tee times, around 40 degrees, with highs reaching 60-64 later in the day. As far as an edge to the morning or afternoon shift make sure you check out the Win Daily Sports discord tonight for up to the minute weather concerns.

Targets and Traps

I will be keying on ownership for this top heavy loaded field with the roster of players competing in Phoenix that mirrors a U.S. Open field. You can go Rahm, Rory and still be in the low 7s to finish. I love Morikawa, he fits in really well when going with three in the top and 9K tiers, his ownership is moving up. We are looking at players like Stallings, Putnam, Laird, Vegas and Hubbard for value and leverage in the lower priced tiers. Our picks are posted below the ownership projections.

Lets take a look at The WM Phoenix Open DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections. These projections are designed to allow you to pivot off chalk and hit high leverage and value for your rostered teams.

OWNERSHIP PROJECTION
PLAYER	OWN %	SALARY
Rahm, John	19.9	11000
Morikawa, Collin	18.8	9700
Cantlay, Patrick	18.3	9500
Schauffele, Xander	18.2	10000
McIlroy, Rory	17.8	10800
Kim, Tom (Joohyung)	17.4	9100
Im, Sungjae	16.9	9200
Harman, Brian	16.9	7400
Young, Cameron	16.8	8900
Mitchell, Keith	16.7	7400
Scheffler, Scottie	15.9	10300
Conners, Corey	14.9	7700
Bradley, Keegan	14.4	7700
Poston, JT	12.9	7300
Homa, Max	12.7	9900
Thomas, Justin	12.3	9800
Day, Jason	12.1	7900
Noren, Alex	11.9	7600
Finau, Tony	11.8	10100
Lee, KH	11.8	7500
Montgomery, Taylor	11.7	8300
Hovland, Viktor	10.4	9300
Hoge, Tom	10.2	7500
Matsuyama, Hideki	10.1	9400
Wise, Aaron	9.8	7600
Burns, Sam	9.6	8600
Henley, Russell	9.5	7400
Fowler, Rickie	9.3	8000
Steele, Brendan	9.1	7200
Theegala, Sahith	8.9	8500
Fitzpatrick, Mathew	8.8	9000
Kirk, Chris	8.7	7300
Kim, Si Woo	8.5	7800
Hadwin, Adam	8.3	7100
Herbert, Lucas	7.6	7200
Hatton, Tyrrell	7.4	8400
Power, Seamus	7.3	7600
Lowry, Shane	6.7	8200
McCarthy, Denny	6.6	7200
Spaun, JJ	6.4	7300
Pendrith, Taylor	6.2	7400
Spieth, Jordan	5.7	8700
Clark, Wyndham	5.6	7200
Fleetwood, Tommy	5.5	8100
Dahmen, Joel	5.4	7100
Thompson, Davis	5.3	7100
Todd, Brendon	5.2	7100
Stallings, Scott	5.1	6900
Grillo, Emiliano	4.9	6700
Buckley, Hayden	4.6	6800
Horschel, Billy	4.4	7800
Hossler, Beau	4.2	6900
Kitayama, Kurt	4.1	7000
NeSmith, Matthew	3.9	6600
Woodland, Gary	3.8	7300
Moore, Taylor	3.8	7000
Vegas, Jhonattan	3.6	6700
Hubbard, Mark	3.4	6300
Putnam, Andrew	3.3	7000
Jaeger, Stephan	3.2	6600
McNealy, Maverick	3.1	7500
Higgo, Garrick	3.0	7200
Sigg, Greyson	2.9	6400
List, Luke	2.8	6900
Laird, Martin	2.8	6700
Riley, Davis	2.7	6800
Ryder, Sam	2.7	6800
Knox, Russell	2.6	6900
Kucher, Matt	2.5	7300
Svensson, Adam	2.4	6500
Wu, Brandon	2.3	6400
Mullinax, Trey	2.1	7100
Bezuidenhout, Christiaan	1.9	7100
Kizzire, Patton	1.8	6600
Van Rooyen, Erik	1.7	6700
Tarren, Callum	1.7	6700
Kisner, Kevin	1.5	6800
Rai, Aaron	1.5	6700
Rodgers, Patrick	1.4	6600
Hahn, James	1.3	6300
Simpson, Webb	1.2	7000
English, Harris	1.2	7000
Hughes, Mackenzie	1.1	6900
Taylor, Nick	1.1	6500
Lashley, Nate	1.0	6500
Molinari, Francesco	0.9	7000
Malnati, Peter	0.9	6500
Tway, Kevin	0.9	6300
Champ, Cameron	0.8	6900
Cink, Stewart	0.8	6700
Wallace, Matt	0.8	6600
Hoffman, Charley	0.8	6300
Hodges, Lee	0.8	6300
Lee, Danny	0.7	6600
Piercy, Scott	0.7	6500
Werenski, Richy	0.7	6100
Palmer, Ryan	0.6	6800
Moore, Ryan	0.6	6300
Johnson, Zack	0.6	6300
Schwab, Matthias	0.6	6200
Lower, Justin	0.5	6500
Reavie, Chez	0.5	6400
Lipsky, David	0.4	6800
Glover, Lucas	0.4	6200
Redman, Doc	0.4	6200
Streelman, Kevin	0.3	6500
Thompson, Michael	0.3	6400
Schenk, Adam	0.3	6400
Long, Adam	0.3	6200
Smotherman, Austin	0.3	6200
Ghim, Doug	0.3	6200
Duncan, Tyler	0.3	6100
Hadley, Chesson	0.2	6300
Ramey, Chad	0.2	6200
White, Brett	0.2	6000
Merritt, Troy	0.1	6400
Frittelli, Dylan	0.1	6400
Holmes, JB	0.1	6100
Sabbatini, Rory	0.1	6100
Walker, Jimmy	0.1	6100
Hickok, Kramer	0.1	6100
Streb, Robert	0.1	6000
Watney, Nick	0.1	6000
McGreevy, Max	0.1	6000
Metzger, Andre	0.1	6000
Landry, Andrew	0.0	6200
Herman, Jim	0.0	6100
Ward, Dalton	0.0	6100
Brehm, Ryan	0.0	6100
Dufner, Jason	0.0	6000
Barnes, Ricky	0.0	6000
Kraft, Kelly	0.0	6000
Gay, Brian	0.0	6000
Hopper, Michael	0.0	6000

These figures for The WM Phoenix Open DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections are accurate as of 18:09 EST. The higher tier golfers may/will show a higher percentage by lock.

My picks for The WM Phoenix Open

Top Tier: Morikawa

Mid Tier: Cantlay

Low Tier: Stallings

Out in Left Play: Putnam

Our Frisky Biscuit Play will be in Discord later Tonight ! *Risky*

FR Leader: T Montgomery

FR Leader: JT Poston (contrarian)

What to Watch

Stix and Spencer of The Bettor Golf Podcast (powered by Win Daily Sports) are available on Anchor at Spotify, Apple and other channels. Stix’s hammer plays hits almost every single week and Spencer has the most comprehensive program breakdowns in the industry. They provide you with the tools to learn how to make money. For the best edge in the betting market and for outstanding DFS position and placement content, do not miss The Bettor Golf podcast! No one works harder than Spencer and Stix on bringing you intrinsic value week after week.

The Premier Live Stream

Don’t forget to tune in to The PGA DraftCast, hosted by Joel and featuring Sia, Spencer, and the man, Deep Dive Dave and the surprise guest who drops by to battle you, the audience, for supremacy on the draft board. It’s back to the familiar time slot at 9:00 EST on Tuesday nights and is fun, engaging and educational. Show up, tune in, and help yourself and your audience win the week with the best team on the board!

The snake draft format allows the elite Win Daily golf staff to give in depth analysis on value plays and some choice sleepers!

The difference between a rock climber and a golfer: The golfer goes “Whack! Oh Sh*t!”

The rock climber goes “Oh Sh*t, Whack!”

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

2 years ago 0 comments

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2023 Pebble Beach Pro-Am Tips: All You Need To Know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Brendon Todd is great value at the 2023 Pebble Beach Pro-Am picks — Brendon Todd is great value at the 2023 Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Last week’s Farmers Insurance Open and Torrey Pines provided a tough test as it always does. Keegan Bradley was well in contention when selected at 66/1. Going for the par-5 18th in two, Bradley found the greenside bunker and was unable to get up and down for a bogey. With thicker rough than previous iterations and a bit of wind, a score of 13-under was enough for Max Homa to secure a two shot victory over our charge. That marks Homa’s 4th victory in his home state of California, where we remain for the 2023 Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

It has been a fantastic start to 2023 for our selections, with at least one golfer finishing in the Top 5 or better at every tournament. The 2023 Pebble Beach Pro-Am presents another course rotation tournament with a 54 hole cut and a slew of celebrities playing alongside the professionals for the first 3 days of play.

2023 Pebble Beach Pro-Am Key Course Stats

The three courses presented this week are Pebble Beach, Monterey Peninsula, and Spyglass Hill. All the courses are short by PGA Tour standards, but cannot be overpowered due to the the unique topography along this stunning coastline.

Pebble Beach in particular, where two of the three rounds will be played for the 2023 Pebble Beach Pro-Am, requires players to play to a particular yardage perhaps more-so than any other course on Tour. This does see a significant increase in approach shots from 100-150 yards. The greens are also some of the smallest you will see all year, measuring in at just 3,000 sq ft on average. Putting and ATG are also significantly correlated with success.

Monterey Peninsula similarly also has a large emphasis on both approach, around the green, and putting. It will likely play the easiest of the courses on offer this week. It also has received a lot of rainfall in the past 6 weeks, meaning it may play a little softer than the course directors desire.

Spyglass Hill differs slightly, in that it still requires those three metrics but also sees an uptick in driving distance being a predictor of success. Given this represents only one course out of a possible four rounds, it is best to focus on the main metrics common across all courses. Find the fairway and hit a good wedge shot. If you miss the green, get up and down, otherwise make the putt.

Weather

The weather has been very changeable leading into the 2023 Pebble Beach Pro-Am, which comes as no surprise for a coastal course setup. Thursday presents as calm for most of the day. Some wind may arrive late afternoon. However, it is worth noting that given the courses in rotation that all the groups will tee-off within a 2 hour window. Even with longer rounds playing alongside amateurs, I don’t see the wind being a major factor unless it arrives significantly earlier than forecast.

Friday presents us with rain all day and some moderate gusts throughout the day. I’d prefer to be on either Monterey Peninsula or Spyglass Hill on this day. With Pebble Beach the most exposed, approaching those very small greens could prove difficult despite the rain softening the course.

Saturday is currently forecast to be overcast and reasonably calm, although winds and rain are expected in the evening. These should intensify into Sunday, leading to a forecast very high winds and rain for the final round. It could provide a dramatic end to the tournament.

As at previous course rotation tournaments, predicting the weather and best rotation to be on is a tough task. I suspect avoiding Pebble Beach on Friday is the best play. Beyond that, we would really be guessing to provide any firm advice of a strong preference either way.

https://www.windy.com/36.565/-121.939?36.060,-121.939,8

2023 Pebble Beach Pro-Am Picks

Suggested Staking

Alex Smalley
2pts E/W $46.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)

Nick Hardy – Your 2023 Pebble Beach Pro-Am Favourite
2pts E/W $61.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)

Davis Riley
2pts E/W $61.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)

Scott Stallings
2pts E/W $67.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)

Brendon Todd
1pt E/W $71.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $4.00

Austin Cook – Your 2023 Pebble Beach Pro-Am Best Value
0.5pts E/W $226.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
4pts Top 40 $3.50

For an article with insights into my golf analysis process, check this link here: https://windailysports.com/golf-betting-101/

2 years ago 0 comments

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DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections for The Pebble Beach Pro Am

cdenny99@hotmail.com 2 years ago

written by cdenny99@hotmail.com

Around a decade ago Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson were battling it out on the back nine here for the championship. Since it was decided that the elevated tourneys (20 million purse)would wrap around this event the field has shrunk in stature. LIV golf can be somewhat responsible for that as well. The picturesque course, especially the seventh hole, has had more wedding proposals than the back seat of a sedan. This week they will play three courses, have a 54 hole cut on Saturday night, and only the top 60 and ties will advance to Sundays final round. The Pebble Beach Pro Am DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections are designed to give you the tools to find leverage and value in all the tiers to strengthen your teams to make a run at a takedown.

Recent Results

Eric Barnes. He was our Frisky Biscuit play last week. A lot of subscribers said, “Who?’ “Never heard of him.” “Not going near him.” He was a 6K golfer that almost 99% of the field thought the same of and they all passed on him. Eric Barnes was the lock. He was first in leverage, first in value, and he made the Optimal lineup as a 6600 salaried golfer. We put the play out in Win Daily Sports discord every Wednesday evening. Subscribers cashed with him in 3/6 and 4/6 lineups as well. Golf is volatile and DFS golf has become extremely efficient in the last two years. The Golf Goddess can bitch slap a premium player or journeyman at the drop of a pin, especially in the low salary range. Our record is now 22-6 for a 6K golfer that everybody hates or just won’t play.

What it Takes

It took over 100 man hours to bring you that play and other picks using sophisticated AI programs like our leverage and value program, as well as boots on the ground. When Win Daily Sports says,” we do the heavy lifting for you”- you better believe it! For the ridiculous price of 5.99 a week you could have that intel and much more that would make all the difference in the world. Use the promo code “GREEN” and your first week is on us! Our Frisky Biscuit play will be in Win Daily Sports discord later tonight. Join us and get in the winners circle this very week!

The Course – The Field

This tourney has a three course rotation, Monterrey Peninsula plays the easiest, Spyglass has the trees buffering the coastal winds, and Pebble Beach is the stingiest course. The cut will be Saturday night after 54 holes.

Whether to trust the Weather

At present the weather is calling for calm on Thursday and it looks like decent weather until the winds hit early Saturday afternoon which means the pre cut rounds will be over two thirds complete. Please check out the Win Daily Sports discord for up to the minute weather all through tonight.

Targets and Traps

I will be fading the top tier except for M. Fitzpatrick. We believe a more balanced approach is the key for success this week and with this weaker field you don’t want to make four picks in the 6K range. For Show Down we recommend the Monterrey course, if windy the Spyglass course, and use the Pebble Beach course for contrarian and leverage plays. If you do dip down in the 6K range, for every player you roster in that range your lineup becomes more unique. Be Careful!

**UPDATE** Matt Fitzpatrick just announced he had a neck injury from last week, isn’t 100% (is he 99% ?)and that his swing isn’t full cut. He has lost 3 points to Hoveland in the time that article came out and they are virtually neck and neck right now. Expect Mav to pick up a share or two as well.

Lets take a look at The Pebble Beach Pro Am DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections

OWNERSHIP PROJECTION
PLAYER	OWN %	SALARY
Fitzpatrick, Mathew	26.4	10100
Hovland, Viktor	26.2	10300
McNealy, Maverick	21.3	9600
Spieth, Jordan	17.9	10600
Stallings, Scott	16.7	7900
Power, Seamus	16.4	9800
Hoge, Tom	15.7	10000
Gordon, Will	15.3	7600
NeSmith, Matthew	15.2	7300
Smalley, Alex	14.9	8700
Mitchell, Keith	14.8	9100
Putnam, Andrew	14.7	9700
Hardy, Nick	14.4	7700
Griffin, Ben	13.8	8600
Hossler, Beau	13.7	7400
Knox, Russell	11.8	7500
Detry,Thomas	11.3	8800
Kitayama, Kurt	11.2	7500
Burmester, Dean	10.9	8400
Dahmen, Joel	10.6	9000
Lashley, Nate	10.5	7300
Tarren, Callum	10.4	7200
Sigg, Greyson	10.3	7300
Rose, Justin	9.9	9500
Kim, SH (Seonghyeon)	9.7	7600
Todd, Brendon	9.6	7900
Lipsky, David	9.4	8200
Shelton, Robby	9.3	7800
Kucher, Matt	8.9	9400
Griffin, Lanto	8.8	7600
Taylor, Nick	8.7	8000
Taylor, Ben	8.7	7200
Suh, Justin	8.6	7300
Mullinax, Trey	8.5	8100
Bramlett, Joseph	8.4	7400
Riley, Davis	8.2	7800
Moore, Taylor	8.1	8300
Merritt, Troy	8.1	7200
McCarthy, Denny	7.8	9200
Pendrith, Taylor	6.7	8900
Hubbard, Mark	5.8	7000
Lower, Justin	5.6	7200
Streelman, Kevin	4.9	7100
Yu, Chun-an (Kevin)	4.8	7300
Barnes, Erik	4.5	7000
Piercy, Scott	3.9	7200
Simpson, Webb	3.8	7700
Van Rooyen, Erik	3.2	8000
Kisner, Kevin	3.1	8500
Baddeley, Aaron	3.0	7100
Higgo, Garrick	2.9	7400
An, Byeong	2.8	7400
Hadley, Chesson	2.8	6800
Walker, Jimmy	2.7	6900
Malnati, Peter	2.6	6800
Armour, Ryan	2.5	6700
Norlander, Henrik	2.4	6800
Palmer, Ryan	2.3	7500
Yuan, Carl	2.3	7000
Higgs, Harry	2.2	7100
Willett, Danny	2.1	7100
Schmid, Matthias (Matti)	2.1	7100
Eckroat, Austin	2.0	7000
Cook, Austin	1.9	6900
Martin, Ben	1.9	6700
Cole, Eric	1.8	6800
Percy, Cameron	1.8	6700
Stevens, Sam	1.7	7000
Schenk, Adam	1.6	7000
Hahn, James	1.6	6600
Schwab, Matthias	1.5	6900
Donald, Luke	1.5	6900
Glover, Lucas	1.4	6800
Kodaira, Satoshi	1.4	6800
Smotherman, Austin	1.4	6700
Noh, Seung-Yul	1.3	6800
Hoffman, Charley	1.2	7000
Redman, Doc	1.2	6800
Blair, Zac	1.2	6700
O’Hair, Sean	1.2	6600
Siem, Marcel	1.2	6500
Wu, Brandon	1.1	7100
Hall, Harry	1.1	7100
Long, Adam	0.9	7200
Ghim, Doug	0.9	6900
Kim, Michael	0.9	6700
Endycott, Harrison	0.9	6700
Tway, Kevin	0.8	6900
Novak, Andrew	0.8	6900
Moore, Ryan	0.8	6600
Alexander, Tyson	0.8	6600
Frittelli, Dylan	0.7	7000
Duo, Zecheng	0.6	6900
Garnett, Brice	0.6	6500
Stuard, Brian	0.6	6400
Silverman, Ben	0.5	6800
Norrman, Vincent	0.5	6600
Wu, Dylan	0.5	6600
Holmes, JB	0.5	6400
Goya, Tano	0.4	6600
Haley II, Paul	0.4	6600
Ramey, Chad	0.4	6600
Sabbatini, Rory	0.4	6400
Villegas, Camilo	0.4	6200
Daffue, MJ	0.3	6900
Nunez, Augusto	0.3	6700
Stroud, Chris	0.3	6500
Lingmerth, David	0.3	6500
Gay, Brian	0.3	6500
Echavarria, Nico	0.3	6500
Lebioda, Hank	0.3	6400
Kraft, Kelly	0.3	6400
Byrd, Jonathan	0.3	6300
McGirt, William	0.3	6300
Bryan, Wesley	0.3	6100
Garrigus, Robert	0.3	6000
Brown, Scott	0.2	6300
Watney, Nick	0.2	6200
Gligic, Michael	0.2	6200
Potter Jr., Ted	0.2	6000
Crane, Ben	0.2	6000
Landry, Andrew	0.1	6700
Gomez, Fabian	0.1	6500
Kang, Sung	0.1	6500
Roy, Kevin	0.1	6400
Murray, Grayson	0.1	6400
McGreevy, Max	0.1	6400
Chappell, Kevin	0.1	6300
Haas, Bill	0.1	6300
Dufner, Jason	0.1	6200
Werenski, Richy	0.1	6200
Stanley, Kyle	0.1	6100
Trainer, Martin	0.1	6100
Van Pelt, Bo	0.1	6000
Points, DA	0.1	6000
Atwal, Arjun	0.1	6000
Grant, Brent	0.0	6500
Brehm, Ryan	0.0	6400
Knowles, Philip	0.0	6300
Harrington, Scott	0.0	6300
Werbylo, Trevor	0.0	6300
Cone, Trevor	0.0	6300
Gribble, Cody	0.0	6200
Westmoreland, Kyle	0.0	6200
Matthews, Brandon	0.0	6200
Albertson, Anders	0.0	6200
Young, Carson	0.0	6100
Pak, John	0.0	6100
Manke, RJ	0.0	6100
Chalmers, Greg	0.0	6100
Johnson, Tom	0.0	6100
Porter, Charles	0.0	6100
Ogilvy, Geoff	0.0	6000
Gainey, Tommy	0.0	6000
Reband, Garett	0.0	6000
O’Hara, Paul	0.0	6000

These figures for The Pebble Beach Pro Am DFS Ownership DFS DraftKings Projections are accurate as of 18:13 EST. The higher tier golfers may/will show a higher percentage by lock.

My picks for The Pebble beach Pro Am

Top Tier: Fitzpatrick (he doesn’t need the long range for this course, he’s playing so it can’t be too bad) Hovland and Mav would be pivots if your concerns prevent you from rostering Fitz.

Mid Tier: Smalley

Low Tier: Hardy

Out in Left Play: Piercy

Our Frisky Biscuit Play will be in Discord later Tonight ! *Risky*

FR Leader: D. Riley

FR Leader: N. Hardy (contrarian)

What to Watch

Stix and Spencer of The Bettor Golf Podcast (powered by Win Daily Sports) are available on Anchor at Spotify, Apple and other channels. Stix’s hammer plays hits almost every single week and Spencer has the most comprehensive program breakdowns in the industry. They provide you with the tools to learn how to make money. For the best edge in the betting market and for outstanding DFS position and placement content, do not miss The Bettor Golf podcast! Its automatic for me to watch the outstanding PGA DraftCast and then switch to the elite Bettor Golf podcast. My ROI is way up due to that. No one works harder than Spencer and Stix on bringing you intrinsic value week after week.

The Premier Live Stream

The snake draft format allows the elite Win Daily golf staff to give in depth analysis on value plays and some choice sleepers!

We left Austin early Tuesday morning when it was 26 degrees and ice storms were prevalent. Austin has no power and no heat right now and no timetable for when it will be back up. That’s one reason why we are on the beach here in Belize looking out at the Caribbean Sea courtesy of DraftKings takedowns. Join Win Daily Sports for the criminally low price of 5.99 per week, and join us on the beach again in June! Again that promo code is “GREEN” for a free test drive. The umbrella is optional here on all your tropical adult beverages!

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

2 years ago 0 comments

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Dubai Desert Classic Picks: All you need to know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Dubai Desert Classic Picks are headlined by Ryan Fox — Ryan Fox can secure another DP World Tour victory at the Dubai Desert Classic

The DP World Tour moves from Abu Dhabi to the neighbouring Emirate of Dubai for consecutive Rolex Series events to start the season proper. I must admit that this tournament holds a special place in my heart. It was around this course that I first developed in the game of golf and I worked at this tournament for 8 years. Undoubtedly, it gave me incredible access to some of the best in the game and some amazing memories. And here we are, analyzing that same tournament and providing our Dubai Desert Classic picks!

Hence, this tournament is my favourite in the world closely followed by The Masters. Interestingly, there have been strong links between those two events which I will discuss later in the article. This tournament has always had a habit of identifying some of the best in the game. It should make for entertaining viewing. Surprisingly, it already has, with LIV Golf defector Patrick Reed and Rory McIlroy having an icy encounter on the range including throwing a Team Aces tee at him:

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/9Kpr-Vx6KDQ

Course Form Should Guide Your Dubai Desert Classic Picks

Emirates Golf Club has played host to the Dubai Desert Classic since 1989, other than two years in 1999-2000 before returning to its rightful home.

This course is long by DP World Tour standards, sitting at a 7,428 par 72. The back 9 certainly plays the easier of the two. It features very good birdie chances on the par 5s with the 10th, 13th, and 18th hole all reachable in two. The par 4 17th is a sharp dogleg right that is driveable over waste desert area and the par 5 18th 2nd shot is over water. Both ensure to provide an enthralling finish with true risk-reward shots and the opportunity to gain 2 or 3 strokes in a final charge.

The front nine also has a driveable par 4 2nd and the par 5 3rd is reachable in two. It is then about minimsing damage through the toughest section of the course, with holes 4 through to 9 all proving tricky tests.

It is no surprise then that strong drivers of the golf ball have always done well here. Distance is a key factor, especially when teamed with elite approach play. It is worth noting that this course is the 2nd most correlated on the DP World Tour for prior success as a predictive factor. This should be key in your Dubai Desert Classic picks.

I would also add an asterix to last year’s results. The greens were completely overhauled in September 2021, increasing in size by an average of 33%. They has unfortunately not bedded in fully by tournament start and a few regular top performers struggled to find consistency with putting. Having settled for another full year, I expect business as usual will resume in time to not stymie our Dubai Desert Classic picks.

Comp Courses

Other than prior course form, there are a couple of other courses we can use as guidance for our Dubai Desert Classic picks.

As mentioned, there are some strong links between here and Augusta National Golf Club. Both Sergio Garcia and Danny Willett won the Dubai Desert Classic the same year of their Masters’ victories. Tiger Woods, Mark O’Meara, and Rory McIlroy are winners at both. Clearly, those three have such large winning records that drawing a clear link between the two is somewhat strained. Charl Schwartzel and Adam Scott have both performed well at both, as has Paul Casey.

Golfclub Munchen Eichenried is a great comp course. Overall, there are strong correlation between the two courses. Haotong Li won the BMW International Open for us in 2022 at 65/1 and is a winner here. Viktor Hovland won there in 2021 prior to his Dubai Desert Classic victory. As identified by others that Chris Paisley, Brandon Stone, Alex Levy, Richard Bland and Niklas Fasth help strengthen those bonds.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y2rcZndjkL0

Weather

Rather strange weather presents itself in Dubai this week. Obviously, rain in the Middle East is a rarity, usually resulting in some chaos as the drainage systems are not used to rain actually occurring. Even more rare is for the rain to make it all the way to the end of January as it does here. Rain is forecast for the first two days and could be heavy at times. A little rain could help scores by shortening the course. However, a lot of rain could make an already long course play even longer.

However, if an edge develops, it is likely to be Thursday PM/Friday AM with Friday morning providing the calmest conditions that day. But, the weather is very changeable and may even lead to some disruption of the tournament.

https://www.windy.com/25.086/55.163?24.518,55.163,8

Dubai Desert Classic Picks

Suggested Staking

Adrian Meronk
1.25pts E/W $31.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)

Ryan Fox – Your Dubai Desert Classic Picks Favourite
2.5pts E/W $46.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)

Rasmus Hojgaard
1.25pts E/W $51.00 (5 places, 1/4 odds)
Also available at 40/1 with 8 places if you prefer

Jordan Smith – Your Dubai Desert Classic Picks Best Value
2pts E/W $56.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)

Antoine Rozner
2pts E/W $61.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)

Sami Valimaki
0.25pts E/W $76.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $5.00

Adri Arnaus
1pts E/W $81.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $5.00
Also available at 100/1 if you prefer to go with less places

Ashun Wu
0.25pts E/W $101.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $5.00

Paul Waring
0.5pts E/W $276.00 (5 places, 1/4 odds)
3pts Top 40 $3.60

Ross Fisher
0.5pts E/W $301.00 (6 places, 1/5 odds)
3pts Top 40 $4.00

For an article with insights into my golf analysis process, check this link here: https://windailysports.com/golf-betting-101/

2 years ago 0 comments

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2023 Farmers Insurance Open: All You Need To Know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Farmers Insurance Open hosted at Torrey Pines — The imposing Torrey Pines provides a formidable test this week

Jon Rahm continued his absolute dominance in the world of golf at The American Express. Making it 4 wins from 6 starts across the globe is a rare feat. I note his somewhat snarky comments about still not ranked number 1 as understandable. Fortunately for him, this is a golf course built for him going against our 2023 Farmers Insurance Open picks.

The simple fact is, he is unbackable at current pricing. This is a golfer in such great form, but at such a short price, we just have to live with the fact that he may win and if he does then fair play to him. He would rightly have earned that World Number 1 title that he obviously covets. In our favour is a volatile weather forecast and an extremely tough test of golf that bites at every corner.

Course Analysis & Comp Courses

Torrey Pines plays host this week in another tournament where course rotation comes into play. The course is certainly iconic, however presenting a stern challenge. Notably, the course is long and the rough is thick. The comments from Director of Agronomy for the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open, Devin Cullen, in the greenkeeper notes make for interesting reading:

“Following the holiday season, frequent rain events hit the property. We have seen years with precipitation totals much higher than what we are seeing, but it is the frequency and consistency that these storms have hit that has given the property little time to dry down. With a few rain events still projected between now and tournament, I’m expecting the course to play longer and thicker than it already does. Should be fun.”

https://www.golfdigest.com/story/torrey-pines-kikuyu-rough-instruction

The rough is indeed thicker this week at 3.5in. It is also Kikuyu, which is sticky and thick, and found in many South African courses. It can snare the hosel of the club, turn your iron over, and suddenly see your ball flying left. Driving distance will be a premium, but expect accuracy to also be a factor here. There will also be a disproportionate long iron shots on this course. With the higher than typical rainfall, the course may play longer and that could also become a factor at the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open.

The North Course provides some mild relief, with golfers playing one of their first two rounds around there. However, the three rounds on the South Course should keep overall scoring low. We can expect a winning total in the range of -10 to -15 for the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open. Comparable courses would be Quail Hollow, Congaree, and Winged Foot.

2023 Farmers Insurance Open Weather

To add to the test, there does appear to be some stern breezes in store for the players. Particularly in the 2nd round on Thursday afternoon, when gusts may reach up to 35 mph. The 2023 Farmers Insurance Open should provide entertaining viewing!

There are two arguments to be made here. One, the North Course is significantly easier. It may be best to be on the easier course in higher winds. However, the South Course can very easily produce a score of 78 without too much difficulty.

Contrarily, the North Course provides a path to victory. It is one round that allows for some lower scoring, which has been chronicled by several past winners going low on the North Course and then holding on for survival at the South Course.

I then to favour being on the easier course on the tougher day. The South Course is brutal at the best of times, and it may become near unplayable in these winds. Regardless, I want players starting as early as possible on Thursday morning. This should allow at least 9 holes in mild to moderate winds until the higher gusts arrive from 1pm onwards.

https://www.windy.com/32.897/-117.245?32.370,-117.245,8,m:ezYacTK

2023 Farmers Insurance Open Picks

Suggested Staking

Taylor Montgomery – Your 2023 Farmers Insurance Open Favourite
2.5pts E/W $31.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)

Keegan Bradley
1pt E/W $67.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $3.60

Alex Smalley
1pt E/W $81.00 (5 places, 1/4 odds)
2pts Top 20 $3.80

Brendan Steele
1pts E/W $141.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $5.25

Beau Hossler
0.5pts E/W $161.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
1pt Top 20 $5.75
3pts Top 40 $2.88

Jhonattan Vegas – Your 2023 Farmers Insurance Open Best Value
0.5pts E/W 226.00 (5 places, 1/4 odds)
1pt Top 20 $6.00
3pts Top 40 $3.10

Golfer Profiles

Taylor Montgomery – Your 2023 Farmers Insurance Open Favourite

Taylor Montgomery headlined our selections last week, and little has changed to damper the enthusiasm. He was sitting in 2nd after the first round, nearly securing a first round leader. With just three holes to play in the tournament, he was just one shot off the lead. The 16th was a good scoring chance and he failed to make birdie, meaning he had to attack the pin at the island green 17th. However, that need to take an aggressive approach led to finding the water and ended his chances.

But, the fact is, he once again put himself in a position to win. That has been a common occurrence for him ever since starting his PGA Tour rookie season. He now arrives at an event he has an emotional connection, and form, with. Montgomery received a sponsor exemption for the Farmers Insurance Open and duly finished 11th at what was his second ever PGA Tour start.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p-sJXs53JHw

On paper, this is also a test that should suit. He has plenty of power off the tee to handle the length of course. It is also inevitable that with the winds forecast all players will miss some greens here. His excellent putting will come in handy in those situations. It also helps going out 2nd on the North Course for the windy Thursday weather. We do have a shortening in his price here, but he also faces a weaker field, and arrives in excellent form to secure his maiden PGA Tour victory.

Keegan Bradley

I have Bradley as one of the better value plays on the board, where his elite long iron play could become a factor at this track. Bradley has 6 Top 25 finishes at this event, including a 4th and a 5th. Bradley secures a 9:20am tee time on the North Course Thursday AM.

Adding to the appeal is that Bradley is long and straight off the tee. He ranks 20th for SG: OTT and 18th for SG: APP in this field. A number of those ranked lower in pricing may also struggle at a test which proves time and again that distance is a huge asset here. With the changes to the course and wind in play, that may be even more of a factor at the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open.

Alex Smalley

Smalley is another golfer who shares the trifecta of driving distance, driving accuracy, and approach play. Those key ball striking attributes will be in hot demand on a stern test such as Torrey Pines. In the key approach distances, Smalley ranked 36th from 175-200 yards and 19th from 200+ yards in 2022.

Of the rounds where we had strokes gained data last week, Smalley averaged +3.41 SG: APP per round to lead the field. Whether he can get the putter rolling is always the question with Smalley. But, I am happy to take that risk given he has previously gained on Poa Annua greens. He also tees off in the first group on Thursday morning on the easier North Course, hopefully avoiding the worst of the weather.

Brendan Steele

Brendan Steele shares some similarity of that trifecta with Smalley. He ranked 12th from 175-200 yards and 79th from 200+ yards in 2022. He also arrives here having gained +2.78 SG: APP per round to be 2nd in the field for that metric at The American Express. And he consistently gains on the field for driving distance and accuracy.

Steele, much like last year’s winner Luke List, profiles as a golfer with some of the best ball-striking on tour and perhaps the worst putting. What does give me confidence here is he has a surprisingly excellent history putting at Torrey Pines. He has gained strokes putting in 8/11 appearances here, and one of the occasions he lost putting he lost just -0.15 strokes per round to basically be at field average.

That is a big anomaly, but one with enough data to be actionable. He does find himself on the South Course for the Thursday, but the metrics are just too good to ignore. We will need to hope he goes low at North Course day one and then holds on in the winds from there.

Beau Hossler

Beau Hossler, much like Montgomery, featured in our analysis last week and did enough to justify us continuing to follow him again. Along with elite driving distance, Hossler possess excellent putting and around the green stats. That could come in handy at a tournament where missing greens will be likely in the winds on offer this week.

Hossler sat 3rd last week after 2nd round last week before fading over the weekend. That was for the two rounds on the Pete Dye course, which was the course I would have been most worried about for him in that rotation. Torrey Pines has a much lower number of fairways hit, which plays in Hossler’s favour as he can gain an advantage with his driving distance.

Jhonattan Vegas – Your 2023 Farmers Insurance Open Best Value

Jhonattan Vegas ranks as the best value on the board for me this week. The American Express was his first professional appearance since planned surgery, so shaking off some of the rust was always going to be a given. He shot a +1 in the 1st round to effectively take himself out of contention. He followed up with a 6-under round on the tougher Pete Dye setup and gained +2.09 SG: APP followed by a 3-under 3rd round.

He returns to a course where he finished 3rd on debut and his 4th ever PGA Tour start. He has since added an 11th and 18th. An 8th at Quail Hollow adds some other nice corresponding form. Vegas gains majority of his strokes on approach at over 150+ yards and gains on both driving distance and approach often. He also has a good history putting at this course, enough to suggest he is mispriced given his time away from the game.

For an article with insights into my golf analysis process, check this link here: https://windailysports.com/golf-betting-101/

2 years ago 0 comments

PGA Premium

DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections for The Pebble Beach Pro Am

cdenny99@hotmail.com 2 years ago

written by cdenny99@hotmail.com

Recent Results

What it Takes

The Course – The Field

Whether to trust the Weather

Targets and Traps

Lets take a look at The Pebble Beach Pro Am DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections

OWNERSHIP PROJECTION
PLAYER	OWN %	SALARY
Fitzpatrick, Mathew	26.4	10100
Hovland, Viktor	26.2	10300
McNealy, Maverick	21.3	9600
Spieth, Jordan	17.9	10600
Stallings, Scott	16.7	7900
Power, Seamus	16.4	9800
Hoge, Tom	15.7	10000
Gordon, Will	15.3	7600
NeSmith, Matthew	15.2	7300
Smalley, Alex	14.9	8700
Mitchell, Keith	14.8	9100
Putnam, Andrew	14.7	9700
Hardy, Nick	14.4	7700
Griffin, Ben	13.8	8600
Hossler, Beau	13.7	7400
Knox, Russell	11.8	7500
Detry,Thomas	11.3	8800
Kitayama, Kurt	11.2	7500
Burmester, Dean	10.9	8400
Dahmen, Joel	10.6	9000
Lashley, Nate	10.5	7300
Tarren, Callum	10.4	7200
Sigg, Greyson	10.3	7300
Rose, Justin	9.9	9500
Kim, SH (Seonghyeon)	9.7	7600
Todd, Brendon	9.6	7900
Lipsky, David	9.4	8200
Shelton, Robby	9.3	7800
Kucher, Matt	8.9	9400
Griffin, Lanto	8.8	7600
Taylor, Nick	8.7	8000
Taylor, Ben	8.7	7200
Suh, Justin	8.6	7300
Mullinax, Trey	8.5	8100
Bramlett, Joseph	8.4	7400
Riley, Davis	8.2	7800
Moore, Taylor	8.1	8300
Merritt, Troy	8.1	7200
McCarthy, Denny	7.8	9200
Pendrith, Taylor	6.7	8900
Hubbard, Mark	5.8	7000
Lower, Justin	5.6	7200
Streelman, Kevin	4.9	7100
Yu, Chun-an (Kevin)	4.8	7300
Barnes, Erik	4.5	7000
Piercy, Scott	3.9	7200
Simpson, Webb	3.8	7700
Van Rooyen, Erik	3.2	8000
Kisner, Kevin	3.1	8500
Baddeley, Aaron	3.0	7100
Higgo, Garrick	2.9	7400
An, Byeong	2.8	7400
Hadley, Chesson	2.8	6800
Walker, Jimmy	2.7	6900
Malnati, Peter	2.6	6800
Armour, Ryan	2.5	6700
Norlander, Henrik	2.4	6800
Palmer, Ryan	2.3	7500
Yuan, Carl	2.3	7000
Higgs, Harry	2.2	7100
Willett, Danny	2.1	7100
Schmid, Matthias (Matti)	2.1	7100
Eckroat, Austin	2.0	7000
Cook, Austin	1.9	6900
Martin, Ben	1.9	6700
Cole, Eric	1.8	6800
Percy, Cameron	1.8	6700
Stevens, Sam	1.7	7000
Schenk, Adam	1.6	7000
Hahn, James	1.6	6600
Schwab, Matthias	1.5	6900
Donald, Luke	1.5	6900
Glover, Lucas	1.4	6800
Kodaira, Satoshi	1.4	6800
Smotherman, Austin	1.4	6700
Noh, Seung-Yul	1.3	6800
Hoffman, Charley	1.2	7000
Redman, Doc	1.2	6800
Blair, Zac	1.2	6700
O’Hair, Sean	1.2	6600
Siem, Marcel	1.2	6500
Wu, Brandon	1.1	7100
Hall, Harry	1.1	7100
Long, Adam	0.9	7200
Ghim, Doug	0.9	6900
Kim, Michael	0.9	6700
Endycott, Harrison	0.9	6700
Tway, Kevin	0.8	6900
Novak, Andrew	0.8	6900
Moore, Ryan	0.8	6600
Alexander, Tyson	0.8	6600
Frittelli, Dylan	0.7	7000
Duo, Zecheng	0.6	6900
Garnett, Brice	0.6	6500
Stuard, Brian	0.6	6400
Silverman, Ben	0.5	6800
Norrman, Vincent	0.5	6600
Wu, Dylan	0.5	6600
Holmes, JB	0.5	6400
Goya, Tano	0.4	6600
Haley II, Paul	0.4	6600
Ramey, Chad	0.4	6600
Sabbatini, Rory	0.4	6400
Villegas, Camilo	0.4	6200
Daffue, MJ	0.3	6900
Nunez, Augusto	0.3	6700
Stroud, Chris	0.3	6500
Lingmerth, David	0.3	6500
Gay, Brian	0.3	6500
Echavarria, Nico	0.3	6500
Lebioda, Hank	0.3	6400
Kraft, Kelly	0.3	6400
Byrd, Jonathan	0.3	6300
McGirt, William	0.3	6300
Bryan, Wesley	0.3	6100
Garrigus, Robert	0.3	6000
Brown, Scott	0.2	6300
Watney, Nick	0.2	6200
Gligic, Michael	0.2	6200
Potter Jr., Ted	0.2	6000
Crane, Ben	0.2	6000
Landry, Andrew	0.1	6700
Gomez, Fabian	0.1	6500
Kang, Sung	0.1	6500
Roy, Kevin	0.1	6400
Murray, Grayson	0.1	6400
McGreevy, Max	0.1	6400
Chappell, Kevin	0.1	6300
Haas, Bill	0.1	6300
Dufner, Jason	0.1	6200
Werenski, Richy	0.1	6200
Stanley, Kyle	0.1	6100
Trainer, Martin	0.1	6100
Van Pelt, Bo	0.1	6000
Points, DA	0.1	6000
Atwal, Arjun	0.1	6000
Grant, Brent	0.0	6500
Brehm, Ryan	0.0	6400
Knowles, Philip	0.0	6300
Harrington, Scott	0.0	6300
Werbylo, Trevor	0.0	6300
Cone, Trevor	0.0	6300
Gribble, Cody	0.0	6200
Westmoreland, Kyle	0.0	6200
Matthews, Brandon	0.0	6200
Albertson, Anders	0.0	6200
Young, Carson	0.0	6100
Pak, John	0.0	6100
Manke, RJ	0.0	6100
Chalmers, Greg	0.0	6100
Johnson, Tom	0.0	6100
Porter, Charles	0.0	6100
Ogilvy, Geoff	0.0	6000
Gainey, Tommy	0.0	6000
Reband, Garett	0.0	6000
O’Hara, Paul	0.0	6000

These figures for The Pebble Beach Pro Am DFS Ownership DFS DraftKings Projections are accurate as of 18:13 EST. The higher tier golfers may/will show a higher percentage by lock.

My picks for The Pebble beach Pro Am

Top Tier: Fitzpatrick (he doesn’t need the long range for this course, he’s playing so it can’t be too bad) Hovland and Mav would be pivots if your concerns prevent you from rostering Fitz.

Mid Tier: Smalley

Low Tier: Hardy

Out in Left Play: Piercy

Our Frisky Biscuit Play will be in Discord later Tonight ! *Risky*

FR Leader: D. Riley

FR Leader: N. Hardy (contrarian)

What to Watch

Stix and Spencer of The Bettor Golf Podcast (powered by Win Daily Sports) are available on Anchor at Spotify, Apple and other channels. Stix’s hammer plays hits almost every single week and Spencer has the most comprehensive program breakdowns in the industry. They provide you with the tools to learn how to make money. For the best edge in the betting market and for outstanding DFS position and placement content, do not miss The Bettor Golf podcast! Its automatic for me to watch the outstanding PGA DraftCast and then switch to the elite Bettor Golf podcast. My ROI is way up due to that. No one works harder than Spencer and Stix on bringing you intrinsic value week after week.

The Premier Live Stream

The snake draft format allows the elite Win Daily golf staff to give in depth analysis on value plays and some choice sleepers!

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

2 years ago 0 comments

PGA Premium

DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections for The Farmers Open

cdenny99@hotmail.com 2 years ago

written by cdenny99@hotmail.com

We are at Torrey Pines for The Farmers Open This site’s South course has hosted Opens and is no stranger to Majors. It ranks in the top 10 for difficulty in all measurable metrics. This week’s news is that they have been grooming the South course to resemble it’s Major and Open difficulty and it’s showing. You can dismiss a -28 winning score this week. Rahm is soft priced again and even with his bloated ownership he will be a difficult fade. The Farmers Open DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections are tailor made to allow you to find leverage and pivots in all tiers to assist you with the best possible chance for a takedown.

Recent Results

For the AMEX we put out Adam Schenk as a Frisky Biscuit play for 6600 salary and 1.3 % ownership. He blew chunks. This brings our record to 21-6 for a golfer under 5 % owned and a 6K salary who must make the cut. My Player picks listed under the ownership hit every play except Taylor Pendrith, whose -8 left him just short of the cutline. We were heavy on Jason Day who finished 18th, three shots off a tie for sixth. Schenk played lights out in practice rounds, and the key variable was getting back into tourney play, there’s a major difference between putting for 20.00 with your practice round group and golfing/putting for a few hundred thousand or a few million.

The Course – The Field

This tourney has the North and South courses and the North is much easier and will produce the most scoring. You don’t need an accurate bomber for the North course, you will for the South.

Whether to trust the Weather

At present the weather is calling for calm on Wednesday with temps in the mid forties, then on Thursday- steady winds 15-17 mph from 11: 00 am to 7:00pm EST with gusts to 35 mph. So go real early or real late Thursday. Make sure you check with Win Daily Sports Discord later tonight for weather and wind updates.

Targets and Traps

Rahm needs no explanation and he’s currently playing as the best golfer on the planet. Two straight PGA tour victories and his salary on DK has increased by only 800 to 11.3K.

The following players are over owned or high chalk based on salary and odds: Ryan Palmer, Charlie Hoffman, Martin Laird and Ricky Fowler. Players with good leverage and possible pivots: Cam Davis, Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele, Tony Finau Justin Thomas, Thomas Detry and Mav McNealy. These are current fades and current leverage pivots and could change. Check Discord for the latest news right up until lock!

Lets take a look at The Farmers Open DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections powered by Win Daily Sports. These tools are designed to allow you to build your lineups and streamline roster construction while gaining leverage on the field through pivots on the chalk and finding value plays in the lower tiers.

OWNERSHIP PROJECTION
PLAYER	OWN %	SALARY
Rahm, John	36.9	11600
Homa, Max	21.6	9100
Montgomery, Taylor	19.9	9200
Finau, Tony	19.2	10500
Zalatoris,Will	18.9	9700
Thomas, Justin	18.6	9400
Schauffele, Xander	17.8	10300
Day, Jason	17.6	8800
Im, Sungjae	16.1	9300
McNealy, Maverick	15.9	8600
Pendrith, Taylor	13.7	7900
Gordon, Will	12.4	7400
Kitayama, Kurt	12.1	7600
Davis, Cameron	11.8	8400
Clark, Wyndham	11.5	7900
Morikawa, Collin	11.4	10000
Smalley, Alex	11.3	7700
Detry,Thomas	10.9	7600
Spaun, JJ	9.9	8500
Rodgers, Patrick	9.6	7300
Griffin, Ben	9.5	7300
Kim, Si Woo	9.4	8900
Theegala, Sahith	9.3	8700
Matsuyama, Hideki	9.2	9000
Bradley, Keegan	8.9	8300
Buckley, Hayden	8.7	8000
Burmester, Dean	8.7	7500
Woodland, Gary	8.6	7400
Rose, Justin	8.5	8100
Stallings, Scott	8.4	7700
Fowler, Rickie	8.3	7600
Steele, Brendan	8.2	7300
NeSmith, Matthew	7.6	7100
Hadwin, Adam	7.4	8200
Jaeger, Stephan	7.3	7200
Thompson, Davis	7.2	7800
Taylor, Ben	7.2	7100
Grillo, Emiliano	7.1	7300
Munoz, Sebastian	6.9	7500
Shelton, Robby	6.8	7200
List, Luke	6.5	8000
Palmer, Ryan	6.4	7500
Tarren, Callum	6.3	7000
Vegas, Jhonattan	6.3	7000
Hardy, Nick	6.2	7400
Bramlett, Joseph	6.1	7000
Hossler, Beau	5.7	7300
Riley, Davis	5.3	7500
Svensson, Adam	4.8	7200
Rai, Aaron	4.5	7200
Schmid, Matthias (Matti)	4.2	7000
Smotherman, Austin	3.9	6700
Mullinax, Trey	3.8	7400
Yuan, Carl	3.7	6900
Kizzire, Patton	3.4	7100
Yu, Chun-an (Kevin)	3.2	6900
English, Harris	3.1	7800
Laird, Martin	2.8	7100
Daffue, MJ	2.8	6700
Griffin, Lanto	2.7	7000
Baddeley, Aaron	2.6	7000
Eckroat, Austin	2.4	6800
An, Byeong	2.3	7200
Suh, Justin	2.2	7100
Lower, Justin	2.1	6900
Moore, Taylor	2.1	6900
Hall, Harry	2.0	6900
Alexander, Tyson	1.9	6500
Streelman, Kevin	1.6	6800
Higgo, Garrick	1.5	7200
Kim, SH (Seonghyeon)	1.4	7100
Barnes, Erik	1.4	6300
Hoffman, Charley	1.3	6900
Percy, Cameron	1.3	6700
Champ, Cameron	1.2	7100
Hodges, Lee	1.2	7000
Lee, Danny	1.2	6900
Cole, Eric	1.1	6700
Thompson, Michael	1.1	6800
Hahn, James	1.1	6500
Nakajima, Keita	1.0	6500
Ryder, Sam	0.9	7000
Higgs, Harry	0.9	6900
Ghim, Doug	0.9	6800
Martin, Ben	0.9	6800
Tway, Kevin	0.9	6600
Holmes, JB	0.9	6400
Piercy, Scott	0.8	6800
Garnett, Brice	0.8	6600
Malnati, Peter	0.8	6300
Long, Adam	0.7	6800
Cook, Austin	0.7	6500
Kodaira, Satoshi	0.7	6400
Welch, Patrick (a)	0.7	6300
Redman, Doc	0.6	6800
Hammer, Cole	0.6	6700
Blair, Zac	0.6	6600
Schenk, Adam	0.6	6600
Semikawa, Taiga	0.6	6500
Norlander, Henrik	0.5	6700
Endycott, Harrison	0.5	6600
Duncan, Tyler	0.5	6500
Sabbatini, Rory	0.5	6400
Haas, Bill	0.5	6100
Wu, Dylan	0.4	6700
Lingmerth, David	0.4	6600
Armour, Ryan	0.4	6500
Noh, Seung-Yul	0.4	6400
O’Hair, Sean	0.4	6400
Streb, Robert	0.4	6300
Lebioda, Hank	0.4	6200
Byrd, Jonathan	0.4	6200
Matthews, Brandon	0.4	6000
Novak, Andrew	0.3	6700
Duo, Zecheng	0.3	6600
Echavarria, Nico	0.3	6500
Stuard, Brian	0.3	6300
Walker, Jimmy	0.3	6200
Frittelli, Dylan	0.2	6600
Kim, Michael	0.2	6500
Haley II, Paul	0.2	6400
Norrman, Vincent	0.2	6400
Gribble, Cody	0.2	6200
Brown, Scott	0.2	6200
Stanley, Kyle	0.2	6000
Kraft, Kelly	0.1	6400
Stevens, Sam	0.1	6300
Villegas, Camilo	0.1	6300
McGirt, William	0.1	6300
Brehm, Ryan	0.1	6300
Dufner, Jason	0.1	6200
Gligic, Michael	0.1	6100
Watney, Nick	0.1	6100
Werenski, Richy	0.1	6100
Westmoreland, Kyle	0.1	6000
Crane, Ben	0.1	6000
Trainer, Martin	0.1	6000
Nunez, Augusto	0.0	6200
Goya, Tano	0.0	6200
Werbylo, Trevor	0.0	6200
Knowles, Philip	0.0	6200
Roy, Kevin	0.0	6100
Herman, Jim	0.0	6100
Harrington, Scott	0.0	6100
Vrzich, Joey	0.0	6100
Albertson, Anders	0.0	6100
Surratt, Caleb (a)	0.0	6100
Garrigus, Robert	0.0	6100
Cone, Trevor	0.0	6000
Grant, Brent	0.0	6000
Atwal, Arjun	0.0	6000
Block, Michael	0.0	6000
Herrera, Michael	0.0	6000
Kingsley, Harrison	0.0	6000
Levin, Spencer	0.0	6000

These figures for The Farmers Open DFS DraftKings Projections are accurate as of 18:46 EST. The higher tier golfers may/will show a higher percentage by lock.

My picks for The Farmers Open

Top Tier: Justin Thomas

Mid Tier: Hayden Buckley

Low Tier: Gordon

Out in Left Play: Kevin Tway

Frisky Risky Biscuit Play: * In Discord later Tonight ! *Risky

FR Leader: Will Zalatoris

FR Leader: Mav McNealy

What to Watch

Stix and Spencer of The Bettor Golf Podcast (powered by Win Daily Sports) are available on Anchor at Spotify, Apple and other channels. Stix’s hammer plays hits almost every single week and Spencer has the most comprehensive program breakdowns in the industry. Their picks are free square plays. They provide you with the tools to learn how to make money. For the best edge in the betting market and for outstanding DFS position and placement content, do not miss The Bettor Golf podcast! Its automatic for me to watch the outstanding PGA DraftCast and then switch to the elite Bettor Golf podcast. My ROI is way up due to that. Tune in-watch-listen-cash!!

The Premier Live Stream

Don’t forget to tune in to The PGA DraftCast, hosted by Joel (“more closets!!”) and featuring Sia, Spencer, and the man, Deep Dive Dave and the surprise guest (reportedly the PGA Tout this week) who drops by to battle you, the audience, for supremacy on the draft board. It’s back to the familiar time slot at 9:00 EST on Tuesday nights and is fun, engaging and educational. Show up, tune in, and help yourself and your audience win the week with the best team on the board!

NOTE: Due to the change to a Wednesday start we don’t have the notes of the DraftCast which will air after this article is published on Tuesday night at 9:00 EST. It makes it more important to catch it tonight, then a quick click to the Bettor Golf Podcast, sprinkle in some expert Discord chat and soon you’ll be telling your family you need to hire a trust attorney and financial advisor with your DK winning!!!

A guy gets off work and figures he can play a lightening fast nine holes. As he approaches the first tee box an old ancient golfer teeters up and ask to play with him. He reluctantly agrees. To his surprise, the old geezer is pretty nimble and fast and before they know it, they are playing the ninth. The younger man hits his driver into a position ten feet feet behind a huge Oak tree. After the younger golfer ponders his approach shot for a while, the old man tells the young golfer, “you know, when I was your age, I knocked that ball right over that tree.” He tries it, the ball hits the branches, rattles around, and comes down a foot from its previous position. The old man looks up and says, “of course, when I was your age that tree was only 3 and a half feet tall.”

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

2 years ago 0 comments

Sports Betting PGA Premium

Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship: All you need to know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Adrian Meronk can secure a 3rd DP World Tour victory at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship — Adrian Meronk can secure a 3rd DP World Tour victory in Abu Dhabi

DP World Tour is back baby! After an epic 2022, the DP World Tour starts off with a bang at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship. This is a Rolex Series event, one of just 5 such events in the year, which consists of some of the biggest tournaments on the calendar. That means inflated prize pools, additional ranking points, and a star-studded field from all over the globe.

We hit a massive 16 outright winners in 2022 and returned an ROI of +24% for the DP World Tour. Rating above a 20% ROI places our tips within the best tipsters on the market. The DP World Tour continues to offer an amazing value from both a betting and DFS stand-point.

The PGA Tour is becoming extremely saturated in terms of content with sharper players in DFS and keen eyes of bookmakers ensuring markets are tight. The DP World Tour still has plenty of softer spots and represents some of the best value available in golf. Let’s get into it!

Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship Course Analysis and Comp Courses

This will be the second year at Yas Links. This is worth noting, as prior course form before 2022 can be discounted. Last week’s Hero Cup tournament was also at former host Abu Dhabi GC. However, having some links to prior Middle East form is never a bad thing, as it is important to have comfort on these unique sturdier grass types and sandy soils.

Yas Links is a Kyle Phillips design. Although not sharing all the hallmarks of a true links course, the general concept and style of play is there. Ultra exposed to the elements with no protection from trees, tussock grass with uneven edges on bunkers, and undulating fairways and greens greet players this week.

It is worth noting that the 2nd round of last year’s tournament featured extremely high winds. It is well worth deep-diving (this is @deepdivegolf of course) a few of your favourite players performances at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship last year. If their performance was somewhat hindered following a bad 2nd round but they played well otherwise, that is worthy of some attention this week.

Comp Courses

There is very good correlation between other Kyle Phillips designed courses and the leaderboard from last year. This architect was involved in the remodelling of the famous Valderrama amongst an impressive portfolio of elite course design.

Most notably, the Qatar Masters is another Middle Eastern links-style course designed by Kyle Phillips. It should be a key guide entering this week. Kingsbarns, part of the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, is another Phillips design. This tournament is also simply a great indicator of links form.

Bernadus, host of the Dutch Open, also displays strong links here (pun intended). This is another atypical course which has links style features although not in your traditional setting. Verdura GC presents another exposed links coastal course by Kyle Phillips. Finally, The Grove was host of the 2016 British Masters.

General links courses you can use for reference include Himmerland, Hillside Golf Club, and the Torrance Course at Fairmont St Andrews. Emirates GC provides another high profile Rolex series event, with a Middle East course just an hour away played at the same time of year.

Weather

There does look to be a tangible weather edge in play this week. The Middle East coastal courses suffer from very predictable onshore breeze, which arrives off the Persian Gulf nearly every afternoon around 2pm. This is something I am well aware of, having lived in Dubai for 8 years. Playing golf, I would often find myself struggling into the wind in the afternoon.

This week, Thursday actually looks to be windy all day. If anything, the wind looks to settle a little as the day goes on. Friday morning present some of the best conditions for the week before the consistent onshore breeze arrives in the afternoon. At such an exposed course like Yas Links, this can make a huge difference to the course’s scoring. As such, I am playing a Thursday PM/Friday AM stack almost exclusively.

Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship Golf Betting Tips

Suggested Staking

Adrian Meronk
2.5pts E/W $34.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)

Eddie Pepperell
1pt E/W $76.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $4.50

Alexander Bjork
1pt E/W $81.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $4.33

Justin Harding
1pt E/W $81.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $4.50

Richard Mansell
1pt E/W $81.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $5.50

Ewen Ferguson
1pt E/W $91.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $5.00

Maximillian Kieffer
1pt E/W $111.00 (8 places, 1.5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $5.50

Golfer Profiles

Adrian Meronk – Your Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship Favourite

Of those at the top of the board, several own legitimate claims to this title. Both Hatton and Noren possess the best chances to my eye. However, at odds of 11/1 and 18/1 it is hard to see any real value within those numbers. Ryan Fox always has to be in consideration, and even more so that his Alfred Dunhill Links Championship victory included a round at Kingsbarns.

So we end up just outside the top of the card with Adrian Meronk. Meronk finally had his breakthrough year in 2022. He won his debut DP World Tour title at the prestigious Irish Open. He then solidified the year by winning the Australian Open on a links style course played in the Melbourne sand-belt. Although a weaker field, he defeated Min Woo Lee, Lucas Herbert, and Adam Scott enroute to victory.

Meronk was well in contention at the 2022 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship before a mysterious WD. It has never been revealed the exact reason for the withdrawal, but he finished 4th the next week in Dubai so there is speculation this was COVID related. The strokes gained data indicates he was gaining across the board and he was sitting at -4, with eventual winning total being -10. An opening round containing 7 birdies is particularly eye catching.

https://twitter.com/AdrianMeronk/status/1614898124832604160?s=20&t=KpYGJm8wwWbBgzbR6KjG6g

Meronk is a resident of Dubai and complimenting the 4th place Dubai Desert Classic finish was a 7th at the season ending DP World Tour Championship. Further, he was well in contention at the Kyle Phillips designed Qatar Masters and Dutch Open, where he finished 3rd in both.

It is hard to see any presenting stronger credentials than Meronk, so he presents great value at the 33/1 on offer here.

Eddie Pepperell

I have grown slowly on Pepperell this week. However, the more I have looked at his claims the more I like the 75/1 on offer.

Pepperell has excellent form on Phillips designs. He is a winner at the Qatar Masters, alongside a 4th there in 2015. He also holds a 14th in his sole appearance at Bernadus Golf as well as at Verdura and has finished in the top 30 in 4 of his last 5 appearances at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship.

Other links form is easy to come by. A 2nd and 11th at Hillside, a 4th and 18th at Himmerland, and a 2nd and 16th at the Torrance Course are the most notable. Sitting on the right side of the weather draw only adds more to his credentials as that edge solidifies.

Alexander Bjork – Your Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship Best Value

Alexander Bjork, like Pepperell, possesses the same abilities of accurate driving and excellent putting. That is always a recipe for success on links courses, so it is little surprise that his links form is obvious.

Bjork finished 20th here last year. He has played the Qatar Masters 3 times in his early career, making the cut on all three occasions with a best finish of 19th. He also finished 7th at Bernardus last year, 6th and 18th at Himmerland, and 20th at Hillside.

The other factor is Bjork’s excellent performances at neighbouring Dubai. His runner-up finish at the season ending DP World Tour Championship is the most eye-catching, finishing alongside Matthew Fitzpatrick and behind Collin Morikawa. He also holds a 12th and 17th in his other two starts on that course and a 6th and 20th at the Dubai Desert Classic for good measure.

Justin Harding

Reading the incoming form of now LIV Golf players is basically impossible. We get no stroke gained data at those events, at tournaments that didn’t even have a leaderboard on their website when the tour first started.

What we rely on here for Harding is his prior and correlated form. Harding finished an admirable 25th here last year, an even par 2nd round in the high winds proving difficult to overcome. Harding is another Qatar Masters winner, champion there in 2019 alongside a 5th last year in his two appearances. A 9th in his sole appearance at Bernadus sits alongside an impressive record at the Dubai Desert Classic of 7-37-27-4.

I’m also conscious these LIV golfers need to take advantage of their rare opportunities to earn OWGR points. This is an elevated Rolex Series event and carries some decent ranking points. Given there is currently a temproary stay on their ban from the DP World Tour, taking advantage of weeks such as this is vital for players like Harding.

Richard Mansell

Mansell began his 2nd year on the DP World Tour in fine fashion, with his first 3 top 5s on the main European tour. A record of 9th and 6th playing Bernardus is a good indication leading into this week.

Additionally, Mansell was leader throughout much of the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in 2022. In that title chase, he opened with a 66 at the Kyle Phillips designed Kingsbarns which included 7 birdies and just one bogey. He eventually finished 7th following a poor final round at St Andrews.

He will be better for that experience in a season that saw him improve greatly throughout the year. A maiden DP World Tour victory is certainly possible in 2023, and he possesses the upside to see that victory occur at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship this week.

Ewen Ferguson

It was an outstanding display from Ewen Ferguson in 2022. Having advanced through the Challenge Tour in 2019 to earn his card, he unfortunately lost this after an indifferent 2020. He earned his DP World Tour card back immediately in a 2021 season where he finished in the Top 5 in 23% of his starts. This included a start on the main tour at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, where he finished 17th.

Having returned to the Tour proper, he proceeded to secure his maiden victory. Of course, this was at the 2022 Qatar Masters. That was a windy tournament on Sunday with another of our tips Adrian Meronk well in contention. He also managed a 2nd at the links course at Himmerland for good measure. Ferguson then went on to secure his 2nd victory shortly thereafter, again on a links style course in Ireland at the ISPS Handa World Invitiational.

Another great season beckons for Ferguson, and I expect to see him contend at some of these Rolex Series events as a potential future Ryder Cup player.

Maximillian Kieffer

Kieffer represents a positive EV bet this week following securing his maiden victory in 2022. Kieffer has long possessed the ball-striking required to win, but he has never met this with a spike putting week at the same event his irons are firing. He finally achieved this at the 2022 Czech Masters, in a very windy tournament.

Much like Mansell, Kieffer shot a 66 at Kingsbarns last year with 7 birdies and a sole bogey on the card. He has a 14th at the Qatar Masters as well as a 14th and 15th at Bernardus. All are Kyle Phillips designed.

A record in Abu Dhabi of 16-12-MC-22 were all at the other Abu Dhabi course, but at least are complimentary to being comfortable in the area. He also managed a 17th at the Dubai Desert Classic in his debut DP World Tour season, has a 17th at the AVIV Dubai Championship, and a 9th in 2022 at the Ras Al Khaimah Classic just an hour drive away.

Kieffer finished the season strong with an 8th in the star-studded Nedbank Golf Challenge and an 11th in Dubai at the season ending DP World Tour Championship. That should fill him with confidence arriving here this week and places him as one of the best value on the board this week.

For an article with insights into my golf analysis process, check this link here: https://windailysports.com/golf-betting-101/

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