Golf snobs will be delighted for the return to Royal Liverpool Golf Club, colloquially known as Hoylake, for the 151st Open Championship. Although last week’s Genesis Scottish Open offers up similar-ish conditions, The Renaissance Club can really only be described at links golf lite. For many, performance on links track remains the true test of golf. It has perennially been an examination of all aspects of a golfers game. Further, one that has managed to largely avoid the increasing advantage of the long drivers that now dominate the leaderboards across the globe. This course is iconic and provides a rugged yet beautiful test for our Open Championship picks.
We were oh so close to yet another winner at the Scottish Open. Rory McIlroy won in near impossible circumstances and continues to impress, as he arrives at a course he won at in 2014. We had just two selections last week with a unit stake over 1. They were Scottie Scheffler, who finished 3rd in typical fashion, and Tyrrell Hatton. Hatton particularly had a 2 shot lead into the last 9 holes, before throwing that away over 6 holes to wind up 6th. That was also in rather typical fashion for what has been a frustrating year for the Brit. We also had young Scot Ewen Ferguson continuing to impress. He was put up at a massive 250/1 and finished up in 12th, just two shots outside the place money but sufficient to cash both Top 20 and Top 40 bets he had recommended.
Royal Liverpool Golf Club presents as a stern test for the Open picks. The first, and perhaps more notable feature, are the 6 internal out of bounds areas for the golfers to avoid. For the uninitiated, finding OB off the tee is not just a penalty shot but also loss of distance. It is one of the harshest penalties a golfer can face in regular circumstances. The scary thing with Hoylake is that these areas are often mere yards from the fairway. It does not take much here for things to go very, very wrong. Not something we want for our Open Championship picks!
Further adding to this are strategically placed fairway bunkers. Often occurring right in the key landing distances, these bunkers are deep with extreme faces. They should be viewed as you would a water hazard. The same bunkers are littered around the greens, with many areas shaved and slope to feed your golf ball right to the bottom of the pit.
And yet, we are not done with the hazards here. Thick gorse bushes are found around the course and, again, just mere yards off the relatively narrow fairways. Gorse presents extremely thick bushes with sturdy branches. If finding your ball in them is near impossible, hitting a shot from them certainly is.
What this means is you can’t simply rip driver here whenever you like. You will need to be extremely strategic and display exquisite course management to be successful. If you can be both long and consistently straight off the tee, then that is obviously best. It is hard to see a winner outside the really great drivers of the golf ball.
Otherwise, driving accuracy would be the preference for our Open Championship picks. Preference is given to long drivers comfortable using iron off the tee when strategically appropriate. Many holes require the player to draw the golf ball so this should also be noted. As always, approach will be a factor. Lesser weighting is given to around the green and putting than those two factors.
Short game is obviously imperative in links golf, so these aren’t discounted entirely. This is given many around the green shots are subject to a little luck where the ball lands in the bunker, lessening some of the around the green skill. With putting, the slower than normal greens provide a moderately easier test.
Hoylake provides a very different test off the tee than last year’s host at the Old Course at St Andrews. That course features huge 100 yard wide fairways and nothing to penal in terms of hazards when driving. A much better comparison can be found at the 2019 Open Championship host Portrush. Visually they are much a like, but they also both have a draw preference to their layout.
A somewhat obscure comparison can be made between the Qatar Masters host, Doha Golf Club. That tournament has thrown out a number of Open Championship winners or likely contenders. That includes Sergio Garcia, Adam Scott, Ernie Els, Henrik Stenson, and Paul Lawrie. The course is a Kyle Phillips design, the same designer of Kingsbarns. That course features in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship rotation, another solid form guide to The Open Championship picks.
For the PGA Tour players, the difficulty comes that they really don’t have any links courses in the USA. Some parallels can be extracted through correlation. First, TPC Sawgrass and Augusta National have provided similar names to the prior Open Championship leaderboards hosted here in 2006 and 2014. They ask similar questions in different ways. The Players requires driving accuracy off the tee with heavy penalty if too wayward. Augusta National requires a strong driver, with excellent approach and around the green play.
Finally, The Honda Classic host PGA National is a great look. Padraig Harrington is a two time champion both at The Open Championship and there. McIlroy, Els, Scott, and Rickie Fowler also dot both the leaderboards there and are either Open Championship winners or runner ups. Any PGA Tour players who have played somewhat well in Scottish Open is a nice bonus for The Open Championship picks.
Foremost when considering the weather, you should note the unique format at The Open Championship. It is tradition that all players start on the 1st tee. As such, tee times cover a huge range from the early first sunlight hours of 6:35am through to those finishing in twilight at 4:16pm.
This presents a unique question for weather. Typically, coastal areas experience increased wind levels from midday through to late afternoon. This though does tend to fade as it enters evening. The main cause for this is the colder air over the seas moves towards the warmer air over land as it heats up, rises, and creates a low pressure area for the winds to advance.
This rings true across both Thursday and Friday. Of the first two days, Friday looks to be the windier of the two. Rain also looks to be a factor and consistent across the tournament.
Preference is given to those with a very early tee time Friday, which should present the best conditions of that day. Simply though, the key is to not find a golfer stuck in the middle ground for our Open Championship picks. I want golfers who get to take advantage of at least one decent true morning start. Those very late in the day may experience a small benefit too. The risk is ending up stuck with a late morning tee time, when winds are already picking up, and then ending up in the afternoon the next day. This should be avoided wherever possible.
Patrick Cantlay – Your 151st Open Championship Picks Favourite
2.5pts E/W +2200 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds) with 25% Bet Boost
Shane Lowry
2.5pts E/W +3300 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
Max Homa
2.5pts E/W +5000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
Adam Scott
1pt E/W +6600 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +280 (Bet365)
Corey Conners – Your 151st Open Championship Picks Best Value
1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +280 (Bet365)
Ryan Fox
1pt E/W +9000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +335 (Unibet)
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Note that, as per the Scottish Open, I like to include some long-shot bombs. This comes due to the potential volatility inherent in links golf, presenting opportunities further down the board at inflated prices. This is combined along with the specialist nature that players can develop specific to links courses. You’ll see that the win stake on these is heavily reduced, with the main focus on obtaining exposure in Top 20 and Top 40 markets.
Matthew Jordan
0.25pt E/W +20000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
2.5pt Top 40 +175
Kurt Kitayama
0.25pt E/W +20000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +700 (TAB)
And
2.5pt Top 40 +240 (TAB)
Alex Noren – Your 151st Open Championship Best Long-Shot Bomb
0.25pt E/W +25000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +700 (TAB)
And
3.5pt Top 40 +230 (TAB)
Ewen Ferguson
0.25pt E/W +30000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +650 (Unibet)
And
2.5pt Top 40 +210 (Bet365)
Victor Perez
0.25pt E/W +35000 (Unibet with 7 places, 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +750 (Unibet)
And
2.5pt Top 40 +210 (TAB)
Matt Wallace
0.25pt E/W +40000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +900 (Unibet)
And
2.5pt Top 40 +320 (TAB)
Matthew Southgate
0.25pt E/W +50000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +1000 (William Hill)
And
2.5pt Top 40 +300 (Bet365)
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Cases can be made for all of Scheffler, McIlroy, Rahm, Cam Smith, and Koepka. The fact is that, if anything, they are likely priced very correctly in the market and often below fair odds. This is a volatile tournament and fading the favourites is something we almost just have to do. There is little in the way of value there.
Although somewhat disappointed to miss the opening 30/1 which we liked, I’m still happy to side with Cantlay at the top of the board. The 22/1 on offer can be inflated by 25% with Bet365, which I recommend doing if you have access to that bookmaker.
Look, I know what you’re thinking. Cantlay sucks in majors. I get it. The question comes, do we simply think Cantlay will never win a major? I’m not convinced that will be the case when his career is all said and done. What should also be noted is he is now on a run of 5 consecutive finishes of 14th or better in majors. A good start is imperative to his chances of success, something he can hopefully obtain with a morning tee time Thursday.
Cantlay is one of the strongest drivers in the game. Over the past 6 months, he is the 12th in this field for driving accuracy despite being long off the tee. That jumps to 7th if looking at the last 3 months. Further, he is leader for par 5 scoring on the PGA Tour, a stat he also led in 2022. He has already shown an aptitude for links golf with finishes of 8th and 12th in the Open previously. I expect him to be in the mix come Sunday. Here’s hoping he can then shut the door and silence the critics.
Lowry is once again quietly putting together an impressive season. He is one of a small smattering of golfers who have finished in the Top 20 in every major for 2023. That includes 16th and 3rd at The Masters, which should be somewhat correlated to here.
Beyond the obvious correlations from being The Open winner at Portrush, one of the better past courses for guidance here, he has a great record at other comp courses. This includes finishes of 2nd and 5th at the Honda Classic for the past two years and 3 finishes of 16th or better at The Players.
Last week’s Scottish Open was eye catching given a large spike in his short game performance. Typically the weakest element of his game, he wound up 12th despite not possessing his best approach week. A return to normality with his ball striking numbers will see him go close here if he putts even half as well as he did in Scotland.
Look, I know what you’re thinking. Homa sucks in majors. I get it. Much like Cantlay though, I suspect we will see Homa as a major champion at some point in his career and The Open Championship seems to fit well.
Homa has impressed recently at The Players, with finishes of 6th an 13th at his last two appearances. That course rewards both long and straight drivers of the ball, which Homa possesses in spades. Homa’s victories have often come in tough conditions, particularly when it is raining. His wins at the Fortinet Championship and Wells Fargo Championship come to mind. Both were wet tournaments, but also on courses favouring accuracy off the tee. All of his 8 victories bar one have come at scores from -8 to -16. With likely winning score here likely to be in the -12 to -15 range, that fits right in his pocket.
As the 8th best golfer in the world, we are getting an inflated price at 50/1 here. An avid fan of golf history, he is well aware of the special place The Open holds in the world of golf. He would make for a worthy champion.
We were on Adam Scott last week, who missed the cut right on the number. That may not end up a bad thing, given the volatile winds over the weekend and very early starts that ensued. If not in contention, he was likely best to pack up and head down to Hoylake a little in advance.
He arrives at a course where he finished 8th and 5th in the prior to renditions hosted at Royal Liverpool. Further building to his links (pun unintended) are his two wins at the Qatar Masters and a win at the Honda Classic. Alongside those impeccable credentials are a multitude of top 20s at The Players and a green jacket. Scott could well be the veteran who pops up here for a major win towards the end of a stellar career.
Conners quietly went about building a decent links warm-up last week with a 19th placed finished at the Scottish Open. We also saw a large increase in driving accuracy but, most notably for Conners, a good week putting.
Conners is long and straight off the tee, rankings 11th in SG:OTT over the last 3, 6, and 12 months and 8th if looking over 2 years. 15th and 28th at the past two Opens suggest he isn’t completely foreign to links golf. He also boasts a great record at Augusta National with a run of 6th, 8th, and 10th at The Masters between 2020-2022. 12th at the PGA Championship is also not the worst guide, with a course that played very well but featured incredibly penal rough if straying a couple yards off the fairway. Should he find a half decent putter, he is a shout to surprise a few here.
Patriotism aside, Ryan Fox could well be a sneaky look to sneak another claret jug for New Zealand here. Fox has had a sterling few years as his game continues to grow. He continued that with a 12th place finish last week at the Scottish Open, where he has a previous 4th in 2017.
Not adverse to windy conditions, Foxy has already displayed some of his best on links courses. We saw that in his most notable victory, winning the 2022 Alfred Dunhill Links in sometimes torrid conditions. He also surprised for a 16th at the 2019 Open at Portrush. That came well before the levels we see him playing at now and broke a run of 7 consecutive missed cuts. He also follows those performances at other courses where he is equally happy using a 2 iron off the tree. The Soudal Open comes to mind, where he finished 2nd on a very narrow test hindered when his 2 iron shaft actually cracked on the final day.
He also owns the course record at his home course, Te Arai Links, which he broke in February this year. He shot a 60 there: https://www.europeantour.com/dpworld-tour/news/articles/detail/ryan-fox-breaks-course-record-at-te-arai-links-on-trip-back-home/
If you want to look at similarities, simply go and look at some of the photos of that beautiful piece of land.
I asked in my recent interview with Ryan Fox about what it is about links golf suits his game so well. He pointed to the fact he prefers tests where he feels he doesn’t have to make birdie every hole. That more strategic, methodical approach gives me faith he will put the driver away when needed. When he gets to the par 5s and par 4s, he can let the big dog eat and attack some of those longer holes. Go well Foxy.
Finally, thank you reading our 151st The Open Championship picks. Meanwhile, you can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process check this link here!
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