The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Monday Night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the final Week 16 NFL DFS contests!
One of the biggest Week 16 NFL DFS slate-breaking possibilities on Monday night surrounds the forthcoming activation of John Brown, who’s been on IR with an ankle injury. The Bills have until 4 p.m. to get him on the active roster if he’s to take the field in the game. He’s already put up individual game scores of 19.0 and 18.2 in weeks 1 and 2, and 17.9 and 13.2 in weeks 9 and 10 – the last time he played for Buffalo. Those performances suggest he’ll be a major NFL DFS factor in the offensive game plan if he suits up tonight, and his price on both sites – including at the FD minimum $5K – are criminally low. UPDATE: Brown was activated from IR at 4 p.m. today and immediately placed on the COVID-19 reserve list as a close contact of T.J. Yeldon, who tested positive this weekend. He’ll likely stay inactive until Week 17 (if they need to improve their seeding) or in the Wild Card round.
If Brown is active, that might take a few prospective targets away from Cole Beasley, but the Beas operates primarily out of the slot and is still capable of monster games alongside Brown, who tweaked his ankle in the 4th quarter of Week 10 when the former Cowboys WR scored 30.9 DK points against the Cardinals.
Obviously, Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs are great plays regardless of whether or not Brown suits up, but rookie playmaker Gabriel Davis would presumably see significantly fewer snaps if Brown is ready to go. I love the way that Davis goes and gets passes; he’s physical and uses his body well.
UPDATE: Expect a typical target share for Beasley and more looks for Davis with Brown inactive.
I like both Devin Singletary and Zack Moss, though it’s possible we see a few more snaps in passing situations go to Singletary over the next couple of weeks, since Allen and the Bills are closing in on an exclusive NFL record. They’ve have had 13 different players catch a touchdown pass in 2020, tying the NFL record set by the 2016 Atlanta Falcons. The record was tied when Allen hooked up a TD with Jake Kumerow in the second quarter last week. Singletary remains the odd man out among the Bills’ available skill position players, as both Moss and T.J. Yeldon already have TD receptions this year. If he doesn’t go to Singletary, KR Andre Roberts and LT Dion Dawkins are the only other regular players with any TD receptions in their careers.
On the other side, I only have interest in Cam Newton, Jakobi Meyers, James White and Damien Harris – who is a game-time decision with a lingering ankle injury that has capped his practice time these past two weeks. Harris was inactive in Week 15 and yielded his usual role to a rusty Sony Michel. Keep an eye on Jarrett Stidham too, since Newton could get pulled if he turns the ball over a lot or gets injured.
Michel could make a few of my builds if Harris doesn’t play, but the Bills run defense has been much better over the past few weeks – particularly because they’ve scored so many points that teams have been forced to play catchup through the air. I’ll have some shares of the Bills DST as well, since the return of a few key pieces and LB Matt Milano has seemingly rejuvenated this group.
Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.
DON’T: Go into your GPP builds without a narrative plan this week. Use the writeup and flex list below to help narrow your player pool and find a winning path.
DO: Play Josh Allen. He’s not a wise fade even though the matchup isn’t ideal.
DON’T: Forget about John Brown. If he’s active, he could play a major role in this game. …forget about Gabriel Davis, who’s got the talent and ability to make a huge impact again this week.
Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on Week 16 NFL DFS overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Monday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in one of the final Week 13 NFL DFS contests!
DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.
My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.
If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.
Let’s get to the game!
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
The Bills are slight favorites in this game, and Josh Allen sticks out as the player from both teams sporting the highest fantasy upside – though the recently effective running of both Devin Singletary and rookie Zack Moss may eat into Allen’s rushing TD total the rest of the way.
The main concern is that the 49ers neutralize Allen much in the same way the Broncos did Patrick Mahomes last night, and for that reason there’s no need to exclusively focus on the Bills QB. But there’s reason no obvious pivot on the 49ers – as the Bills defense has LB Matt Milano back and has shored up their injury issues in the secondary. I’d probably be willing to attack the Niners less-than-stellar secondary with Stefon Diggs and sprinkle in a couple of 49ers players, but salary is going to be problems if you play the CPT spot straight this week. I personally love rookie WR Gabriel Davis, though I may have more shares of Cole Beasley this week. I could see him confounding the Niners out of the slot.
The multi-headed 49ers running attack has a clear lead dog in Raheem Mostert – one of the toughest and most physical runners in the NFL. He returned to his normal role in a game against the Rams last week, and we’ll haver to pay attention to the gameday inactives to see if the 49ers sit any of Tevin Coleman, Jerick McKinnon and Jeff Wilson – all of whom could have a significant role in cracking this showdown based on the their low salaries and upside should an injury or game script (the 49ers having to play from behind) come into play.
Both Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk are elite options for the 49ers, and I might be limiting my 49ers ownership to one or both of them in some builds – but I do have some abiding interest in Ross Dwelley, who has 8-12 point upside even if he gets a handful of targets. Jordan Reed may be the preferred fantasy TE, but Dwelley logs more snaps and the disparate pricing ($5,000 for Reed to just $800 for big Ross) make Dwelley a bit of a value. There’s even room for a sneaky Nick Mullens stack on DK with one of the big WRs and either Dwelley or Reed. But I’ll likely avoid both TEs on FanDuel.
The Bills might have a tougher time connecting with their TEs this week, as the Niners should do a good job defending Dawson Knox and Tyler Kroft.
Tyler Bass and Robbie Gould are both viable on both sites, though using either at the DK captain spot could provide ample salary relief and plenty of value if they kick a couple of 50-yarders.
Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together
DON’T: Feel confined to a classic narrative this week. Kickers are in play and we could even see a big defensive play or two that changes the whole landscape of the showdown,
DO: Count on a better game this week from Stefon Diggs. Last week was an anomaly and I expect something closer to his usual 15-20 points.
DON’T: Forget about Brandon Aiyuk and Gabriel Davis. Both rookies have enormous upside in any matchup.
Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
A bizarre Week 5 NFL DFS concludes with the Bills and Titans on a rare Tuesday night contest, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money!
Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns
DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.
My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.
If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.
Let’s get to the game!
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
Some notable injuries/COVID updates: For the Bills, rookie RB Zack Moss (toe), veteran WR John Brown (calf) and standout CB Tre’Davious White are all questionable, with Brown having the best chance of suiting up and contributing. LB Matt Milano is out. White’s absence would mean a logical upgrade for A.J., Brown (knee, questionable), who is expected to return for the Titans following three weeks off. The Titans will be without WRs Corey Davis and Adam Humphries, who are both on the reserve/COVID-19 list along with seven other Tennessee players. The preparation, talent, health and overall football edge is overwhelmingly in the Bills favor, though the defensive unit – especially the secondary – is pretty banged up.
The obvious chalk at captain will be Bills QB Josh Allen, who leads his undefeated team into Tennessee on the heels of four straight 25+ point fantasy performances. He’s averaging an impressive 8.96 yards per pass attempt this season (second to only Jared Goff), has thrown for 1,326-12-1 in four games and has added 83 rushing yards and three TDs on the ground. I’ll gladly eat this chalk and pair him with speedy WR Stefon Diggs. Using Allen with Devin Singletary is also a possibility, since the Bills could be spending a lot of time in the Titans red zone and the Tennessee secondary is one of its strengths, with Kevin Byard, Malcolm Butler, Johnathan Joseph and Kenny Vaccaro all healthy for this game.
My favorite pivot if you can’t afford Allen at CPT is Derrick Henry, assuming they continue to utilize him in the passing game. I could see Ryan Tannehill or A.J. Brown having a big game as well, but the Bills are missing Milano and Henry has logged 34, 27 and 29 touches in his first three games of 2020. The former Heisman winner is fully rested; the last game the Titans played was in September.
Another option for the CPT spot on DK is Jonnu Smith, sincehe could see upwards of 10 targets from Tannehill this game, and he allows you to fit in several Bills players and Henry.
Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together
DON’T: Forget to check inactives before game time and be ready to pivot. It’s a pretty fluid situation these days and there are some obscure but possibly relevant Titans WRs (Kalif Raymond, Nick Westbrook, Chester Rogers and Cody Hollister) in the player pool for this showdown, especially if A.J. Brown has any kind of setback leading up to kickoff.
DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.
DON’T: Sleep on Devin Singletary tonight, especially if he’s paired with the Bills defense. The Bills RB is affordable on both sites, and that’s one build where you don’t necessarily have to plug in Allen, too.
Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
Welcome to my preview for Wildcard Weekend DFS. I will be covering value and punt plays, favorite stacks, and my contrarian plays for all four games this weekend. Are you ready for some playoff DFS action? All prices discussed are via DraftKings and FanDuel and are presented in parentheses next to the player ie. (DraftKings Price/FanDuel Price).
The first thing about this game is the line movement from the open. It started at 41.5 in total and is up to 42.5 from Sunday. Via TeamRankings.com since the start of the 2016 NFL season, there have been 14 games where the closing over/under line moved four points lower than the opening over/underline. In these games, the under performed better, going 9-5 (64.3%). Game totals went under the line by an average of 2.4 points. Since the start of the 2014 NFL season, there have been 326 games with over/under lines between 41.5 and 43.5. In these games: Games have gone over the line 149 times (45.7%). and under 176 times (54.0%).
From a quick glance Deshaun Watson ($6,400)/($8,100) looks like the inferior option to Josh Allen ($6,500)/($7,800) at the quarterback position. The reason being is that the matchup strongly favors Allen with the Texans ranking in the bottom-ten in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks over the past four weeks. The Houston defense as a whole is just not very good and the Bills over the past five weeks have had an extremely difficult strength of schedule. According to BuffaloBills.com, each of the Bills’ last five opponents put a top-10 NFL defense on the field (Jets 7th, Patriots 1st, Steelers 5th, Ravens 4th, Cowboys 5th) and it showed. The Bills went 2-3 down the stretch and averaged only 16 points per game. Now, the Bills go up against Houston’s defense, ranked 28th in the league and giving up 24 points per game.
However, you cannot ignore the “it” factor that Watson brings to the table in big games. Despite the fact that the Bills rank top-six versus quarterbacks over the past four weeks, Watson is an absolute smash button in GPPs. Allen is a preferred option in cash formats, but both are good options because of the rushing upside they offer. The Texans allowed the seventh-most rushing yards to quarterbacks this season. Watson is also averaging over 25 fantasy points per game at home and has scored at least 19.90 fantasy points in his last five home games.
For defenses overall on this slate, I am leaning towards the Titans DST ($2,400)/($3,600) as the pay-down option in cash formats because the Patriots offense currently is just not an offense to fear right now. I do think that the Texans DST ($2,600)/($4,100) is interesting against Josh Allen in his first NFL road playoff game. The Bills DST ($3,100)/($4,000) is also in a good spot versus the Houston Texans who with Watson can take sacks and force turnovers. In his only game versus Buffalo, Watson threw two interceptions and was sacked seven times in 2018.
Do not forget about 1,000-yard rusher Carlos Hyde ($5,100)/($6,400) or new bell-cow back Devin Singletary ($6,000)/($6,200). The Bills defense is weak against the run. Allowing 4.4 yards per attempt on the road this season, and just look at the production they have allowed to some backs recently. 96 rushing yards to Sony Michel, over 100 combined rushing and receiving to Ezekiel Elliott, and 100 rushing yards to both Adrian Peterson and Nick Chubb. Hyde is seeing close to 20 touches per game over the past three weeks outside Week 17.
It’s actually pretty ridiculous that Marshawn Lynch ($5,200)/($5,900) is $100 more expensive on DraftKings than Hyde. Singletary is seeing a similar workload to Hyde but sees much more work in the passing game. The Texans matchup is also slightly better with them allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game over the past four weeks to running backs. This season Houston has allowed the second-most receptions, second-most yards, and most receiving touchdowns to the running back position.
At the tight end position, Dawson Knox ($2,900)/($4,800) is a very cheap price on DraftKings and FanDuel. Over the last four weeks, the Texans are the fourth-worst team at defending the tight end position in terms of fantasy points allowed. The Houston secondary is also suspect at best so expect to see John Brown ($6,000)/($6,500) and Cole Beasley ($5,600)/($6,300) to be productive in this matchup. The Texans have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to wide receivers over the past two weeks. They rank seventh-worst pass defense in DVOA. For the lesser owned guys, we saw Duke Williams ($3,400)/($4,500) play really well when he was active last week, so he could see more playing time if he is active on Sunday. The same goes for DeAndre Carter ($3,400)/($4,500) who is the next man up if Stills or Fuller cannot go on Sunday.
The Bills are dealing with an injury in their secondary with their number two outside cornerback in Levi Wallace. With Tre’Davious White most likely drawing his coverage to DeAndre Hopkins ($7,700)/($8,300), that would boost the likes of both Will Fuller V ($4,900/$5,600) and Kenny Stills ($4,600/$5,800). Over the past four weeks, the Bills rank seventh-best versus the wide receiver position. Hopkins is coming off his worst game of the season so he is definitely somebody to go back to. To get an interesting stack that will be great leverage will be punting tight end with Jordan Akins ($2,800)/($4,600). He is third in routes run and targets from Weeks 14-16 over Darren Fells.
As a Patriots fan, I try to take my bias out when making DFS decisions. This is why I strongly feel in cash formats that paying down for the Titans DST ($2,400)/($4,100) is the best move. But in GPPs, it is worth noting that this Titans defense is not good and Tom Brady ($5,800)/($7,600) in the playoffs needs to be considered. The Titans have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks over the past four weeks.
The Ryan Tannehill ($6,300)/($7,800) breakout season also ends here. If you look at Tannehill’s games this season he has either been at home (six games) or played on the road versus a bottom-ten defense. Tannehill is an excellent quarterback at home, and that goes back to his Miami days when he won against the Patriots four different times. However, things are different when he has played on the road especially in New England where he is 0-6. Tannehill is averaging just 16.2 fantasy points per game on the road versus 24.1 points at home. Both his sub-18 points games came on the road (at IND, and at HOU), and his two better games on the road were versus Carolina and Oakland.
All those teams rank in the bottom half of the league in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. The Patriots rank number one versus the quarterback position and still have the best pass defense based on passing DVOA via FootballOutsiders. This could be the week the Patriots DST ($3,400)/($4,600) breaks the slate wide open. Tannehill has 10 interceptions and four touchdowns thrown at New England in his career.
The Titans matchup is also slightly better for the Patriots with them allowing the tenth-most fantasy points per game over the past four weeks to running backs. Specifically, it has really been pass-catching running backs that have done damage versus Tennesse. They have allowed the third-most receptions and targets allowed to running backs this season. Insert James White ($5,700)/($6,200) who the Patriots oftentimes like to unleash during the playoffs.
Derrick Henry ($8,200)/($9,300) looks to be really popular in this spot coming off a massive game where he saw season-highs in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, and rushing attempts. But he is far from a lock for me because the Patriots are going to sell out to stop the run, and Henry does not catch passes. So in a format like DraftKings, where receptions are so vital, he should be faded. You are hoping for touchdowns with Henry and the Patriots have allowed just one rushing touchdown to backs this season. They are allowing just 3.6 yards per attempt at home and just 3.6 rushing first downs.
Outside of Michael Thomas, the only other lock-button wide receiver has to be Julian Edelman ($6,500)/($7,000). Edelman is dealing with injuries, but still, his playoff record is astonishing. He has double-digit targets in every single playoff game he has played since 2013 (12 games). He is averaging well over 100 yards per game in his last six playoff games and has eight catches in nine of his last 11. Also, N’Keal Harry ($5,300) continues to be used more in the Patriots’ offense.
On the side of the Titans A.J. Brown ($7,400)/($7,700) has been on absolute fire and lock-down cornerback Stephon Gillmore has shown some holes over the past two weeks. I am not looking to fade Brown, because it’s really his run after the catch ability that is why he is so good, and he is really emerging an alpha in this offense. Also, consider that Titans’ receivers have had success versus the Patriots specifically Corey Davis ($3,800). In two career games versus New England, Davis has three touchdowns, 12 receptions, and 188 receiving yards. The focus is going to be on Brown, but as seen in the video below, Jonnu Smith ($3,800)/($5,800) could expose Patriots’ safety Patrick Chung.
The 2019 Minnesota Vikings did not beat a team with a .500 or better on the road this season. So you can play Drew Brees ($6,600)/($8,500) with a ton of confidence because he is just absolutely raking at home in the dome. But the Saints are going to make Kirk Cousins ($6,100)/($7,600) try to beat them. If you look at all the games that the Vikings have lost Cousins is averaging 35 passing attempts versus 27 in victories. So lots of passing attempts for Cousins, but against a pretty good Saints’ defense, I am not so sure he will have a great fantasy day. If anything it makes me favor the Saints DST ($3,000)/($4,700) because they will have a ton of opportunities for turnovers and sacks.
The Vikings matchup is also slightly better with them allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game over the past four weeks to running backs. Specifically, the damage has been done in the passing game with Minnesota allowing the second-most receptions (32) to running backs over the past four weeks. Alvin Kamara ($7,400)/($8,200) should be a lock at the running back position across all lineups. I also think in GPPs pairing Latavius Murray ($5,000)/($5,700) with Kamara in a #revengegame could be nice leverage. Murray had 17 carries last week and will probably get at least one red zone look against his former team.
Dalvin Cook ($7,800)/($8,000) looks to be ready to return for the playoffs and he should also be in your lineup. The Saints run defense has been dealing with injuries, but no team has been able to expose them. I think Cook changes the narrative here.
The one position that the Saints have been most vulnerable to is the wide receiver position. In the last four weeks, they rank fourth-worst versus the position. This is why you should be looking to roster Stefon Diggs ($6,600)/($7,300) and Adam Thielen ($6,200)/($6,200) as one-offs away from Kirk Cousins. They are better as bring back pieces in Saints’ onslaught stacks. Again also similar to Akins getting more work, this could be game where Irv Smith Jr. ($2,700)/($5,300) has a bigger role with the Vikings potentially point chasing. He is second on the team in routes run Weeks 14-16 and he was rested last week. It’s also a homecoming for Smith whose father played for the Saints so he should be amped up and ready to go.
Michael Thomas ($9,300/$8,900) is a lock and you should do whatever you can to roster him on both sites. I will say that as a value play I love Tre’Quan Smith ($4,000/$5,500) in this spot. Smith has a touchdown reception in every single home game started by Drew Brees this season. The Vikings this season have allowed the most red-zone touches, and third-most red-zone targets to opposing wide receivers this season. Not to mention Smith is coming off a season-high in targets (five), receptions (five), yards (56) while playing 62% of the snaps second to only Michael Thomas (67%). No other Saints wide receiver has caught that many passes since Ted Ginn Jr. reeled in seven passes back in Week 1.
This slate as a whole is also not filled with great options at the tight end position, but Jared Cook ($4,900)/($6,500) could stand out from the crowd here. The Vikings play a majority of a cover 2 defense which means two defenders deep with five defenders underneath. This could potentially create massive opportunities for Cook to make plays down the seam splitting those two deep defenders. Cook is arguably the Saints’ most explosive pass weapon based on 10.4 average depth of target.
This is a different Eagles’ defense when they play at home. They rank second-worst in the NFL in passing touchdowns allowed on the road, but at home fourth-best. They rank fourth-worst in passing yards per game but rank top four at home (under 200 passing yards/game). Lastly, they also rank bottom five in yards per pass attempt on the road, but at home are middle to the pack. So with that it in mind, I am not locking Russell Wilson ($6,800)/($7,900) as a must-play in any format especially as the most expensive quarterback.
Ultimately, I am just not sure Carson Wentz ($6,200)/($7,900) has enough firepower on offense to really have a blow-up game on Sunday. The ownership for a quarterback is going to be diluted across the board and with no rushing upside for Wentz, he is not on my radar. Seattle also ranks top-ten versus quarterbacks over the past four weeks. Seattle’s weakness is in their run defense.
Over the past four weeks, the Seattle Seahawks have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs; just one point per game below the Carolina Panthers atrocious run defense. They have given up eight rushing touchdowns which are tied for the most during that span. Miles Sanders ($6,200)/($7,000) is considered day to day, but when players have that condition it usually trends on them missing the next game. Boston Scott ($5,800) absolutely blew up in Sanders’ absence in Week 17, and he would continue to see heavy usage should Sanders ultimately be sidelined. Things can get tricky here because this is the last game on the slate, so you will not know if you can trust Scott if Sanders plays. You can always pivot off Sanders to DK Metcalf ($6,100)/($6,200) or just insert Boston Scott ($5,800)/($6,600). The injury surrounding Sanders could lower Scott’s ownership despite him being in a good spot. You can also pivot off Scott onto Greg Ward ($5,200)/($5,600), Dallas Goedert ($5,200)/($6,700) or one of the Seahawks backs.
Jordan Howard ($4,900)/($5,600) should also see an expanded role if Sanders’ misses which translates to me (goalline work). Considering Seattle has allowed the third-most rushing touchdowns to running backs if your lineup is dead heading into the last playoff game on Sunday consider swapping to Howard. For example, if your roster Scott and Ward you could swap directly to Metcalf and Howard for the same price. Don’t also fall in the trap of playing #BeastMode when Travis Homer ($5,300)/($6,100) got the majority of usage last week.
I have highlighted the fact that the Eagles play better at home, but some receivers can still run wild versus them because they are still dealing with injuries. Over the past four weeks, they still are allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to wide receivers with the third-most targets and fourth-most yards. Tyler Lockett ($7,200)/($7,300) and Metcalf insert here as the receivers to stack with Wilson. All-season though the Eagles have been more vulnerable on the perimeter so I prefer Metcalf with the discount. I do also really like the great value with David Moore ($3,400)/($5,100) who could be the primary number three receiver with injuries to Malik Turner and Jaron Brown.
Down the stretch, the Seahawks were one of the worst teams at defending the tight end position. So if Zach Ertz ($6,000)/($6,900) is deemed out playing Dallas Goedert would be a must. Goedert has 22 targets over the past two weeks in the absence of Ertz. According to Pro Football Doc on Twitter Ertz is not going to play. Use this information to your advantage.
Welcome to my preview for Saturday DFS Week 16. I will be covering value and punt plays, favorite stacks, and my contrarian plays for all three games on Saturday. Are you ready for some Saturday DFS action? All prices discussed are via DraftKings.
Please join Phil Naessens and I as we break down the Saturday slate on the Win Daily Podcast
The first thing about this game is the line movement from the open. It started at 53 in total and is down to 49 from Sunday. The spread has also jumped from -1 Houston to -3 Houston. Via TeamRankings.com since the start of the 2016 NFL season, there have been 14 games where the closing over/under line moved four points lower than the opening over/underline. In these games, the under performed better, going 9-5 (64.3%). Game totals went under the line by an average of 2.4 points.
From a quick glance Deshaun Watson ($7,000) and Jameis Winston ($6,900) look like the clear cut best quarterbacks on the slate. Watson is averaging 23.9 fantasy points per game and has essentially all his weapons at his disposal. He has also had 13 rushing attempts for 76 yards over the past two weeks. Watson is a great option for a cash game, but there is a chance that he may not necessarily explode in this matchup. The Tampa Bay defense has been much better over the past month. Over the past four weeks, they rank tenth-best versus the QB position in terms of fantasy points allowed. Patriots rank ninth for some perspective. This improvement has a lot to do with the improved play of Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean via Pro Football Focus. Since Week 10, Dean has the No. 2 coverage grade during that time (91.0), allowing just 33.3% of targets to be completed into his coverage, while Davis ranks eighth with a coverage grade of 81.1 and his 11 forced incompletions lead the league during that time period. Dean and Davis bring two physical corners to the outside of the Bucs’ secondary.
Winston seems like the much better GPP play because of the fact that he will be without both Evans and Godwin. He has a better matchup and has essentially been lights out at home. The Texans have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to the quarterback position over the past four weeks and rank third-worst overall on the season. Winston outside of Week 1 versus SF has scored at least 21 fantasy points in every single home game he has started. The lack of weapons is concerning but Winston has already come out and said he wants to get his TEs involved. Over the past four weeks, the Texans rank third-worst versus the tight end position while ranking ninth-best versus wide receivers. Perhaps Bruce Arians will build his offensive gameplan around Cameron Brate ($3,500) and O.J. Howard ($4,000).
It’s also worth mentioning that at the price the Texans ($3,200) could be heavily owned versus the Buccaneers that has been a full-proof positive strategy with Winston leading the NFL in interceptions. However, the Buccanneers ($2,300) should not be overlooked because they have the ability to generate sacks. Shaq Barrett has tied Warren Sapp for the most sacks in a single season in Tampa Bay history and leads the NFL in sacks/quarterback hits. Tampa Bay has also scored 15 or more fantasy points in three of the last four weeks. Houston has scored more than just 15 fantasy points once this season. Get Buccaneers DST exposure in GPPs especially with ownership highly favoring Watson at quarterback.
The Texans have allowed the most receptions to running backs, the fourth-most targets, most receiving yards, most receiving touchdowns, and second-most red-zone targets. Overall over the past four weeks, Houston has allowed the third-most fantasy points to the position. So can you trust the trifecta of Ronald Jones ($4,400), Peyton Barber ($3,900), and Dare Ogunbowale ($3,300)? Arians mentioned he wanted to see more of the running backs involved in the passing game. Unfortunately dissecting which back to trust is tough because over the past two weeks Jones has eight targets with five receptions, Barber has four targets with four receptions, and Ogunbowale has six targets with six receptions. The upside still lies with Jones who owns 10.3 yards per reception this season, but Barber should be mixed in GPPs. He made a nice play on Sunday so Arians could “reward” Barber with more looks.
For the Texans, the matchup is absolute brutal versus the third-ranked defense versus the running back position allowing just 3.5 yards per attempt at home (second-best). Carlos Hyde ($5,000) has rushed for 1,000 yards this season and the Texans do have a 26-point implied team total. Hyde just has seven carries inside the 5-yard line this season. Hyde is someone to get off this week. Rather chase the upside with a Buccaneers running back.
As I mentioned before over the past four weeks, the Texans rank third-worst versus the tight end position while ranking ninth-best versus wide receivers. Both Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight ends are worth rostering. The easiest fade is Breshad Perriman ($6,000). Coming off a three-touchdown game where he ranked fourth on the team in targets, do not chase the touchdowns in this situation. Justin Watson ($4,600) is cheaper and will probably end up being the better per dollar play to play at the wide receiver position.
As for the Texans, DeAndre Hopkins ($8,500) is seeing Michael Thomas like usage in the passing game with eight targets every single week since Week 4. If you are going with Watson in cash, it just makes too much sense to pair him with Hopkins. I also love Will Fuller ($5,900) just because of the upside he brings to the Texans’ offense. Though the Buccaneers have been better versus the QB position, they still rank sixth-worst versus the wide receiver over the past four weeks. Also, Jordan Akins ($2,900) is a sneaky tight end play. Darren Fells ($3,000) has fallen behind Jordan Akins in terms of targets in recent weeks, but he remains Houston’s top tight end in terms of offensive snaps. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the fourth-worst team in terms of fantasy points allowed to the tight end position.
The first thing about this game is the line movement from the open. It started at 38.5 in total and is down to 36.5 from Sunday. Via TeamRankings.com. Since the start of the 2014 NFL season, there have been 273 games where the closing line favored the home team by 5.5 to 7.5 points. In these games, the team like New England won the game 201 times (73.6%).
Both the Bills and Patriots rank top-ten in terms of the fewest fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks over the past four weeks. Tom Brady ($5,200) is the cheapest quarterback on the slate and at home where he is averaging 20 DraftKings points per game, he should be considered for GPPs. The Bills allow the fifth-most passing attempts on the road this season and New England ranks second in the NFL in pass attempts per game. Josh Allen ($5,300) is also worth considering in GPPs that you can play naked as he could be in line for a huge game rushing the football.
There’s an argument to be made that the defenses on this slate are even better plays with the Patriots DST ($4,000) potentially having a slate-breaking upside. They have yet to score less than seven fantasy points at home this season. New England rarely turns the ball over at home, so the Bills DST ($2,900) is a thinner play.
The best running back play in this game has to be Devin Singletary ($5,500) for cash formats. Over the past month, Singletary has been averaging twenty-plus touches per game with usage as a receiver and runner averaging 5.4 yards per attempt. New England’s weaknesses are definitely more versus their run defense so Singletary could find a crease there in the defense. He also did not play in their Week 3 matchup versus the Patriots. Frank Gore ($3,400) rushed for over 100 yards for the one and only time this season when he played the Patriots on 17 attempts. The Patriots have also allowed the fifth-most receptions to the running back position over the past four weeks.
On the Patriots side, Sony Michel ($4,600) is nothing more than a GPP play, but he does have that three-touchdown upside especially at home. James White ($5,800) has seen at least ten targets in two of his last three games versus Buffalo and could see an expanded role in the passing game should Julian Edelman be any more limited.
Starting slot cornerback Jonathan Jones will miss this game which could create a great opportunity for Cole Beasley ($4,800) to have a nice day. Beasley had a season-high 12 targets last time he played NE for 75 yards. Other players to consider that could provide X-factors in this game are Mohamed Sanu ($3,800) and N’Keal Harry ($4,000). Sanu saw a team-high eight targets last week and Harry was playing ahead of Philip Dorsett ($3,100) and Jakobi Meyers ($3,100). If you want to get a weird look at Ben Watson ($2,700) who I know Phil loves this week as a contrarian play! Bills rank fifth-worst versus the tight end over the past four weeks.
Both the Rams and 49ers rank top-ten in terms of the most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks over the past four weeks. However, there is only one quarterback that I will be considering starting: Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,500) that comes in cheaper than Jared Goff ($5,800). Goff traditionally struggles on the road especially against teams that pressure the quarterback. The 49ers rank third-best in the NFL in pressure rate by Pro Football Focus. Goff scored 2.12 fantasy points the last time he played SF. Garoppolo scored 14.12 points, but that was a game where Dante Pettis and Marquise Goodwin were the leading receivers.
Both defenses can pressure the quarterback, but I prefer the 49ers DST ($4,300) in a game that I project to be a 49ers’ onslaught.
Todd Gurley ($6,300) is a clear-cut option in cash games because the Rams are 100% convinced now on getting him as many touches as they can. He has averaged over 20 touches over the past three weeks. Raheem Mostert ($6,100) is also a trust-worthy option in cash games versus the Rams who just got torched on the ground by the Cowboys. The 49ers are second in the NFL in fantasy points scored for their running backs so you know that one of these running backs is going to be on a winning GPP lineup. I am looking at you Matt Breida ($3,800).
Neither Emmanuel Sanders ($5,500) or Deebo Samuel ($5,100) was heavily involved in the team’s first matchup versus the Rams, and Jalen Ramsey was not on LA. I do not expect either to be heavily shadowed by Ramsey, but both move around the offense and play out of the slot to see production. Obviously George Kittle ($6,500) has been on absolute fire and is the clear cut stacking option with Jimmy G.
As for the Rams options I am getting off the Tyler Higbee ($5,000) train with the return of Gerald Everett ($4,000). Besides the matchup is not great either for Higbee who will be drawing coverage from Jimmie Ward. According to Pro Football Focus, Ward is ranked as the 6th-best safety with an 85.0 overall grade on the year. He also has an 80.5 pass coverage grade and an 86.4 run defense grade. 49ers defensive coordinator came out and said on Higbee that, “We do have to be aware of where he is and understand that he’s not just a decoy, but he and Goff right now have a good relationship and they’re playing very well together.”
Robert Woods ($6,200) is still getting all of the targets in the Rams’ passing attack making him the presumed cash play, but I like utilizing Cooper Kupp ($6,500) in GPPs. Unlike Woods Kupp is no stranger to the end zone and the 49ers have allowed the second-most wide receiver touchdowns over the past two weeks.
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DK ($10,300) FD ($11,000)
McCaffrey is coming off his lowest-scoring performance since Week 2, and only the second game since then that he didn’t score a TD. But CMC should have plenty of opportunities to remedy when he visits the Falcons in Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday. Treat last week as an anomaly and take advantage of the $200 price drop on DK!
DK ($9,500) FD ($8,700)
Cook normally doesn’thave the upside of CMC, but he’s in a great spot versus the Lions, who rank amongthe worst three defenses in the league against RBs. Cook left the Week 13 lossto the Seahawks on Monday night a little early after injuring his chest, but he’snot on the injury report and there’s no indication he’ll be limited Sunday. He’sgot a 10-point floor and 30-point upside and offers a somewhat cheaper optionthan the top dog.
DK ($8,200) FD ($8,600)
Henryhas been a godsend for DFS players over the past few weeks, and he’s seeking anotherproductive performance against a Raiders defense that’s yielded 134.8 yardsfrom scrimmage per game and 13 touchdowns to running backs so far this season.
Also consider:Devonta Freeman (value cash play)
DK ($6,700) FD ($7,800)
Jones dealt with some ankle pain last week but this home matchup againstthe Redskins is about as favorable as you can get. The Packers have an impliedtotal over 27 points, and while we should still see Jamaal Williams (knee) getsome work, both backs offer upside in this smash spot.
DK ($7,400) FD ($7,500)
Fournette is a lock for 20+ touches this week at home against the Chargers, and he’s seen 23 targets over the past two weeks operating as a workhorse back in all aspects on the Jags offense. His floor remains round 10-12 points and he’s got a 30-point upside.
DK ($8,000) FD ($7,900)
Chubb isn’t cheap, but I could see him matching his production fromthe Miami game a couple of weeks ago, when he rolled for 106 yards and a TD,adding 3-58-0 receiving. The additional of Kareem Hunt has hurt his week-to-weekconsistency, but Chubb is in a positive game script here and the Bengals cannotstop him.
Also consider: Joe Mixon, JamesWhite
DK ($7,000) FD ($7,600)
Kamara has a tough matchup vs. the 49ers on Sunday, but the game is in New Orleans on the turf and this could be a higher-scoring game than the 44.5 game total. The Saints have a 23.5 implied total, and a lot of that should be the fruits of Kamara’s and Michael Thomas’ labor. A contrarian GPP plays for those of you who think the Saints could hand the 49ers their third loss in Week 14.
DK ($6,300) FD ($7,000)
Even with Melvin Gordon getting regular carries, Ekeler has scoredfour receiving TDs over his last six games. He’s got plenty of big plays in himdue to his speed and elusiveness, and I’m committed to using him in GPPs as acontrarian play once again in Week 14.
Also consider: Todd Gurley,Devin Singletary, Mark Ingram
DK ($4,400) FD ($6,100)
McCoy will get the start on Sunday against the Patriots and while it’s not a great matchup, he should see enough involvement to pay off his dirt-cheap price at $4,400 on DK. I’m less interested in FanDuel, where he’s over $6K.
DK ($4,500) FD ($5,100)
It’s not often you can recommend two RBs in the same offense, but theLions defense has been so bad vs. RBS that it could be warranted. Mattison’s presencelimits Cook’s GPP upside a little bit, and we could easily see 10-15 touchesfor the backup RB in a positive game script at home this week.
Additional plays: Phillip Lindsay, Melvin Gordon, Bilal Powell (if Bell out), Darwin Thompson
Goal: 67.5, Prize: 3x
Christian McCaffrey, Devonta Freeman and D.J. Moore are in great spots to bust out for huge fantasy days this week (especially with Greg Olsen out for Carolina), so go big or go home with this 3x bet!
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DK ($10,500) FD ($10,500)
With at least 23 DK points in four straight games and averaging a massive 32.4 DK PPG, CMC is again top dog in all formats. I’m not going to bore you anymore with his resume at this point, and while the matchup is difficult compared to others he’s faced, it doesn’t freak me out enough to avoid him. Just lock the guy in and move on.
DK ($8,100) FD ($8,200)
If you can’t fit in McCaffrey in your cash lineups, thenshame on you. No, really, Chubb has some competition for touches now, but he’sanother back facing a poor opponent who could clean up this week and make his fantasyowners very happy. He’s hasn’t scored since Week 6, so he’s due.
DK ($8,200) FD ($8,300)
We nailed Kamara last week, and he was under 10 percent owned in large-field GPPs (9.58% in the DK Millionaire Maker). I’m smitten with how Kamara fits into the Saints offense and can break off enormous plays as opponents get distracted by the plodding style of Latavius Murray, the pass-catching ability of Michael Thomas and the multiple speed options (Ted Ginn, Taysom Hill) who complement Kamara’s soaring talent. He’s probably cash viable but is best deployed in GPPs.
DK ($7,400) FD ($8,000)
Jacobs is again nursing the same shoulder injury, but he’sa GPP darling this season, getting lots of work in all aspects of the Raiders’offense. Last week an underwhelming fantasy total, but he’s a better bet toreach paydirt in Week 12 and score 15-25 DK points.
DK ($6,900) FD ($8,400)
The Titans would like to win this division rivalry without throwing the ball a lot, as they grabbed a win over the Chiefs last week with Ryan Tannehill attempting fewer than 20 passes. Henry has a massive upside in this matchup and is one of the strongest runners in the game.
DK ($7,300) FD ($7,000)
The other side of the Titans-Jags game features Fournette, who last week was a bit of a disappointment. For Week 12, Fournette’s price is down on both sites and he’s almost a bargain on FD. He’s not a high-profile name and he could go under-owned in GPPs after drawing just 4-5 percent ownership last week.
DK ($5,900) FD ($6,700)
The Bengals are bad, but Mixon has 200 rushing yards and 45 carries over his last two games. He’s the focal point of this offense and the Steelers are a team in turmoil, so I’ll be locking this bell-cow into about 20-25 percent of my GPPs and hopefully staying ahead of the field.
Also consider: Le’Veon Bell, Jaylen Samuels, James White, David Montgomery
DK ($7,500) FD ($8,100)
This could get interesting. Ezekiel’s ownership was at 14.06% in the Millionaire Maker last week, and he reached 20 DK points, but this week against a much tougher opponent (the Patriots allow the fewest points to fantasy RBs), that ownership level should plummet, even though he still has plenty of upsides and the price has come way down. He could be a sneaky play in GPPs.
DK ($5,400) FD ($6,300)
The Bills’continued reliance on Frank Gore (11 rushing attempts last game) keepsSingletary from getting the 20 attempts he’ll likely need to break through intoGPP stardom, but the Broncos are average against the run and Singletary is atalented back with upside – and probably some relatively low ownership this week.
Also consider: Saquon Barkley, Chris Carson, Phillip Lindsay
DK ($5,000) FD ($5,600)
Sanders is a talented back and Jordan Howard hasn’t yet beencleared for contact. With the rookie getting the bulk of work out of the Phillybackfield and having such enormous upside based on his speed and shiftiness, I’lltake the chance against the Seahawks in some GPPs.
DK ($4,900) FD ($6,300)
Michel is still just too cheap on DK and had 10 carries and four targets last week. I expect the Patriots to use him a little more this week against the Cowboys – who are more susceptible to straight-line power runners – making him a fine value play in Week 12.
DK ($4,800) FD ($5,700)
Cohen saw an uptick in usage last week and could get more workin Week 12. He’s scored receiving TDs in two straight and could make it a thirdagainst this dubious Giants defensive unit.
DK ($4,700) FD ($5,400)
Guice has an excellent matchup and big-play upside, so he’son my list for Week 12 GPP value plays. This team is still committed to giving AdrianPeterson touches, but Guice is cheaper and probably the better back.
DK ($4,400) FD ($5,500)
Ballage remains cheap, but his upside is limited,especially against an improving Browns defensive unit. But with Mark Waltondone with football for the foreseeable future, the volume could mean viability onDK.
Additional plays: Ronald Jones, J.D. McKissic, Latavius Murray
Goal: 78.5, Prize: 3x
Christian McCaffrey, Michael Thomas, and Alvin Kamara are my picks (two RBs and a WR) for notching the most fantasy points in this Week 12 matchup. Let’s go big for 3x since they all catch passes, they can all score multiple TDs and go over 150 total yards and offer monster upside.
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Cash or GPP, CMC is King, and the price remains unchanged from last week. He gets days off during the week for maintenance, but by Thursday he’s practicing fully so he can smash on Sunday. I don’t need to justify this anymore, do I? He’s the safest play and has the most upside, so use the guy – just find a way to get him in your lineups.
Cook gets over 20 carries per game and is just a notch below McCaffrey in terms of floor and upside – but still worth of clicking into your cash game lineups and GPPs. Find your value plays at WR, TE and flex this week and just lock both guys in. The Denver defense doesn’t play nearly as well on the road and they’ve been surprisingly mediocre against the run this season – so stopping Cook will be a challenge.
It’s s great matchup and the Cowboys clearly want to run theball more – so this could easily end up being Zeke’s best game of 2019 so far.He has 35-40 point upside on DK and the Lions defense gives up the most fantasypoints in the league to opposing RBs.
Since Kamara isn’t a prototypical rusher, I’m totally coolwith rolling him out against the league’s toughest run defense, especiallysince it’s also the league’s worst pass defense! Kamara had a rough go of itlast time around and that should keep the masses from clicking his name inGPPs. I’m going right back to the well – because he’ll be instrumental in the Saintsshredding of the Bucs, and that price has come down to a very reasonable place.
Jacobs has been playing through a shoulder injury and it’s worth monitoring his status on Sunday, but the guy is a workhorse for Oakland and a huge part of their success this season. His combined targets and carries each game have fallen below 19 only once since Week 4, and the Q tag could keep folks off him in GPPs – even against a pitiful Bengals defense. Win Daily Sports expert David Jones noted in his GPP Picks of Destiny that Jacobs he has gone over 100 yards in three of his last five games with five touchdowns in that span, and I firmly agree with his assessment of Jacobs as a mid-range GPP option.
The Ravens can beat you many ways, but Ingram still makessense as a high-upside GPP play with some amount of risk – but not enough to keepyou from cashing if he has a ho-hum game. He’s not my favorite RB option thisweek and the number of touches he gets per game is a little low for my liking, buthe’s someone to consider as a pivot if Jacobs’ shoulder keeps him from playing.
The rookie RB was a disappointment last week but has a favorablematchup in Week 11. He’s one of the best GPP plays on the slate given hisupside, talent and the recency bias of the letdown to DFS owners in Week 10.
Also consider: Le’Veon Bell (illness), Phillip Lindsay
Priceand matchup will keep Fournette from being heavily owned this week, but he’s ina sneaky spot if the Jags decide to limit the number of throws that Nick Foles makesin his first game back. It’s not a heavy exposure opportunity, but mixingFournette into a few low-stakes, large-field multi-entry GPPs shouldn’t be abad decision.
Coleman ducked out of practice due to a personal matter on Thursday, so he may not make the initial builds of the GPP masses heading into the weekend. It’s hard to speculate at this point if he’ll be available or if his head will be in the game, but there’s no injury to speak of and both Matt Breida (ankle, doubtful) and Raheem Mostert (knee) are dealing with some issues. Stay tuned and don’t rule him out of DFS viability in this favorable matchup just yet.
Also consider: Marlon Mack, Joe Mixon
Michel is just too cheap on DK and despite coming off hisseason-low of four carries in Week 9, I expect the Patriots to go back to whatworks following their bye week – which means 15-20 carries for Michel and multi-TDupside. He’s a fine play in Week 11.
Hill is the only show in town for Atlanta in Week 11 and the matchup is a decent one on paper. I worry about a letdown after his big week, as the Falcons could easily fall behind and abandon the running game, peppering both Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley with targets, but the absence of Austin Hooper has to help Hill’s usage as a receiving option on dump-offs. Tenacious D even says in his GPP column that “Hill is going to step in for the injured Devonte Freeman and get around 20 touches and a couple targets through the air” and I’m with him that the 24-year-old back stands a good shot of finding paydirt.
He’s probably too expensive on FD because of his reliance on the passing game and the Dallas run defense, which looked decent up until they encountered Dalvin Cook in Week 10. He’s got opportunity and game script on his side, and he could get a few more targets (season-high seven last week) with Matthew Stafford ruled out again and Jeff Driskel set to fill in at QB.
Ballage is still cheap and getting lots of usage but arelatively quiet game in Week 10 (20 carries for 43 yards, 4-2-0 on four targetsreceiving), but head coach Brian Flores said Wednesday that the Dolphins willcontinue to lean heavily on him as their lead option out of the backfield. Thebills defense hasn’t been great recently and Ballage is a near lock for 15-20touches.
Additional plays: Miles Sanders, Ty Montgomery (only if Bell is OUT)
Lets go with Christian McCaffrey, Brian Hill and D.J. Moore, who could all go for 20+ Fantasy Points, with McCaffrey a regular threat to eclipse 40. At that rate, I am comfortable locking in the 2x bet all day and going for a little more at 3x considering the upside here. I wanted to include two RBs because its an article about that, so if you are skittish about Hill you can always use Julio Jones.
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