NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 11/03

Tonight makes for an interesting NBA slate. With only four teams in action, the majority of the field will want to go a similar direction. Multiple elite talents, young stars in the making, and two mismatches on paper will have this be our craziest slate of the season thus far. It’s a Thirsty Thursday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

With only two games on the schedule tonight, a single injury or lineup change can shift the NBA slate drastically. Thus, be sure to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups as the news rolls in. Moreover, join the conversation in the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need from both subscribers and staff.

Golden State Warriors @ Orlando Magic (+8)

Golden State Warriors (-8)

Rather than diving into individual statistics, I’ll be discussing different strategies surrounding all four teams on this NBA slate. Beginning with the Warriors, it’s simple: are you playing Steph Curry or not? You certainly cannot go wrong here with the reigning Finals MVP, as he is clearly producing in all facets of the game. However, should you fade him, you’ll need exposure to this offense in the form of Andrew Wiggins, Klay Thompson, or Jordan Poole. Wiggins posted 20+ points for the first time in his last five games the other night, while Poole has been inconsistent with the number of looks he gets. Meanwhile, Thompson has logged 30 or more minutes in back-to-back appearances, attempting 19 three-pointers along the way. Obviously, Curry is the clear top dog here for me, followed by Poole, Thompson, and Wiggins, in that order.

Orlando Magic (+8)

The Magic will dictate this NBA slate. Given the numerous options they provide us in the mid range, there are a few possibilities to entertain. The first is with Wendell Carter Jr. The reason I mention him first is because he is the logical pivot to Nikola Jokic at the center position. By no means is he expected to match his counterpart’s output, but WCJ offers more flexibility with your build. Second, the duo of Franz Wagner and Bol Bol. While the latter has been a focal point in previous articles and remains to be rostered at a much lower rate than he should, this is a matchup where he could find himself lagging behind in transition. While I’ll still entertain the possibility of playing Bol, I’ll be taking a long look at Wagner, who has assumed the responsibility of being one of the primary ball handlers with Cole Anthony and Markelle Fultz sidelined. Paolo Banchero is the odd man out for me here, but I won’t fault you for prioritizing him given his safe floor.

Denver Nuggets @ OKC Thunder (+6)

Denver Nuggets (-6)

With Michael Porter Jr. and Jamal Murray back in the lineup, I’m taking a stance on fading Nikola Jokic tonight. While the back-to-back NBA MVP can surely lead any slate in scoring, he caps the upside of your lineup structure. Thus, I’ll be turning to the two secondary options on offense. MPJ has scored 15 or more points in every game this season, making his way back to form. Meanwhile, Murray can be an x-factor on this slate. The former Kentucky Wildcat logged 30 minutes for the first time this season in his last game and took a season-high 21 shots. With the Thunder on a thin rotation, this can be a primary spot for the two to continue to get shots up in a winnable game, without Jokic having to carry them on offense.

OKC Thunder (+6)

If you’re not playing Curry tonight, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the stud you want. While he is likely to be the least popular option of the three options at the top of the pricing grid, SGA offers just as much upside as anyone right now. Additionally, the field will flock to the value on the OKC side of things, leaving SGA as the odd man out. The frontcourt of Robinson-Earl, Pokusevski, Jalen Williams, and Bazley all figure to be in consideration. Be sure to check our projections to see where they rank leading up to lock.

NBA DFS stud rankings based on lineup structure:

1. Steph Curry
2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
3. Nikola Jokic

NBA DFS scenarios based on lineup structure:

1. If fading Jokic, look to Murray and/or Porter Jr.
2. If fading Curry, look to the trio of Poole, Thompson, Wiggins
3. Orlando mid range targets listed above
4. OKC value options

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord