Data Golf

Scottie Scheffler added to the legacy that is The Players Championship, as he romped to what ended up being a relatively simple 5 shot victory. Scheffler was easily our favourite player at the top of the board, but hard to justify as positive value at just 11/1 on a volatile course. Perhaps the scariest fact is that he was negative putting for the week until draining a long putt on the 18th. Thankfully, we don’t need to deal with the Big Three for our Valspar Championship picks this week.

For DFS purposes, we did have Scheffler alongside Hovland and Hoge as our core. Hoge was excellent value, priced at 140/1 in odds markets and $7,300 in DFS with just 3% ownership. Obviously, those three players finished in 3 of the top 4 spots. Hoge cashed us a full place payout with 1 unit at +2500 and 3 units +400 for a Top 20. We also score a Top 20 on Russell Henley with 3 units at +360. On the DP World Tour, Julien Brun finished 7th without really threatening the win. We score a full play payout on him with 2.5 units at +500. Let’s look for the winner this week in our Valspar Championship picks!

Course Analysis & Course Comps

Innisbrook Golf Resort plays host this week, specifically the Copperhead Course. As we look to our Valspar Championship picks, it is worthy to note this is rarely a birdie fest. Winnings scores should reach low teens at best. There is even a chance that something in the -10 to -15 range may be good enough this week, with course changes and the weather (more on this shortly).

This tricky, narrow setup requires accuracy over distance off the tee. Finding the fairway is imperative and you will see players clubbing down often for their tee shots. The course is a long 7,340 yard par 71 with a unique five par 3 setup. This leads to a disproportionate number of iron shots occurring 175 yards or longer. Further, all five par 3s are 195 yards or longer.

In regards to the course changes, the rough has moved from 72″ to 21″. It has also been allowed to grow out to 3.75in, up from 3in last year. When you get very thick rough right up to the green, this limits the creativity and shot selections available to the player. Therefore, I suspect this will take some of the skill out of the chipping and add a bit of luck/volatility to the short game. It is worth noting this change.

Surprisingly, the majority of models I have seen this week are still hammering SG: ATG as if this change has not occurred. Chipping will absolutely form a part of the week. Certainly, the greens are medium to small in size, firm, and with high winds they will be hard to find from long distance. However, I simply don’t think SG: ATG should play the large emphasis some are suggesting.

Course Comps Used for our Valspar Championship picks

Do note that Innisbrook has offered a low correlation between prior form and future success. I believe the reasons for this are two-fold. One, the tight fairways and thick rough add an element of volatility to the course. And, secondly, the top players usually avoid this tournament meaning some less consistent results may be expected.

In order of weighting and level of correlation, the following courses formed our guidance this week: Muirfield, TPC River Highlands, Harbour Town, Concession, PGA National, TPC Sawgrass.

Weather

A decent weather edge has developed as the tournament has approached.

Thursday afternoon looks to have the lowest winds of the day. Further, adding to this edge is a very windy Friday. Friday winds peak in the afternoon at 15-18mph with gusts reaching up to 30mph. This leads to an advantage on both of the first two days for the players starting Thursday PM/Friday AM. Currently, we are projecting this edge to be a substantial 0.75-1.00 strokes on average.

Also, an important note for Saturday and Sunday is there may be thunderstorms in the area. It is a distinct possibility that any substantial delays would result in a loss of a days play.

In this instance, it is unlikely the PGA Tour will extend the finish to Monday due to the early start Wednesday next week with the WGC Matchplay. I will be paying close attention to the weather and advise accordingly. If it appears a 54 hole tournament is a possibility, some in-play opportunities may develop where some outsiders close to the lead manage to hold on due to the truncated tournament.

Make sure you are in the WinDaily Discord here for the latest live updates.

You can find the latest weather forecasts here.

Valspar Championship Picks & Golf Betting Tips – Final Card

Suggested Staking – 25 points staked

Justin Rose – Your Valspar Championship Picks Favourite
2.5pts WIN +2200 Fanduel/MGM
2.5pts Top 5 +490 Fanduel
or
2.5pts E/W +2500 Bet365 (with 5 places 1/4 odds)

Wyndham Clark
2.5pts +4000 Fanduel
2.5pts Top 10 +360 Fanduel
or 2.5pts E/W +3500 Bet365 (with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Taylor Moore
2pts +7000 Draftkings
2pts Top 10 +650 Fanduel
or 2pts E/W +7000 Bet365 (with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Tyler Duncan – Your Valspar Championship Picks Best Value
1pt WIN +7000 Draftkings/MGM
1pt Top 10 +650 Draftkings
or 1pt E/W +7500 Bet365 (with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Mark Hubbard
0.5pts WIN +13000 Draftkings
0.5pts Top 10 +1000 Fanduel/Draftkings
or 0.5pts E/W +12500 Bet365 (with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20

Kevin Roy
0.5pt WIN +38000 Fanduel
0.5pt Top 10 +3000 Draftkings
or 0.5pt E/W +40000 William Hill (with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +1100 Fanduel/Draftkings
And
2pts Top 40 +300 Draftkings/ +400 Bet365

DFS Core: Justin Rose, Wyndham Clark, Tyler Duncan.

Player Profiles

Favourites Analysis

We have been rather spoiled of late with the elevated event schedules coming into full force. I don’t think this can be argued to be a “weak” field. Certainly, there will be other tournaments this year which carry far less class than we find here. However, with the absence of the usual studs of Rahm, Scheffler, and McIlroy at the top of the board, it makes an interesting situation where all the players at the top of the board carry some concerns.

Questions have to be asked of the poor short game for Justin Thomas over the last 6 months, coupled with a regression in his usual elite iron play. Spieth is a shade better, having found some better irons in 3 of his last 4 starts. His driving accuracy remains a slight concern for me here. Sam Burns goes for the three-peat here but has looked nothing like the golfer he was when he achieved those back-to-back victories. All three end up on the wrong side of the predicted weather edge. Fitzpatrick gets the better side of it, but has been heavily backed in after Ben Coley tipped him and still carries some injury concerns.

Realistically, this then leaves with Hadwin, Fleetwood, and Rose. Hadwin is on the wrong side of the draw and hasn’t won a tournament since 2017. Fleetwood’s only victories since 2018 have both come at the Nedbank Challenge (November 2019 and 2022). I do think Fleetwood profiles well for here and has shown better form of late. However, both of those victories came in lower standard DP World Tour tournaments with a reduced field of 66 and 63 players.

Justin Rose – Your Valspar Championship Picks Favourite

As such, we are left with Justin Rose. Arriving here after another strong finish of 6th at The Players Championship, Rose was a recent winner in February at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. That windy, narrow test with small greens is certainly not the worst consideration towards the style of play required for success this week. His approach play is vastly improved in his last 5 starts and he also gained on driving accuracy quite significantly to the field last week. He also is one of the few top players that get the perceived right side of the weather draw. Justin Rose sits 18th for Par 3 scoring on the PGA Tour for the 2022-2023 season and should benefit from this unusual scorecard setup.

Finally, the correlating course form is excellent. Included in this is a course history including 9 top 30s (with 3 Top 10s) in 11 appearances. The two other tournaments were missed cuts, but came when losing -1.99 and -2.55 strokes putting per round having gained all other appearances here. Justin Rose owns a house in Florida and is familiar with these bermuda grass surfaces. This all indicates that this is a track that really suits his overall game and style of play, all for a golfer in excellent form.

Wyndham Clark

In our 2022 season review and 2023 season preview episode, I mentioned Wyndham Clark as one of three players that I expected would have a big year. His recent form has really shown that his maiden PGA Tour victory may be imminent. This has been driven by huge improvement in his approach play, previously the weakness in his game. Such has been the growth, that Clark now rates as 4th in this field for SG: APP in the last 3 months. Notably, last week’s performance saw him gain on the field for driving accuracy suggesting a comfort in clubbing down off the tee. Typically excellent around the greens and putting, long off the tee, and with his irons having shown eye-catching improvement this seems an opportunity primed for breakout.

Having only mildly lost strokes putting here on his three previous appearances, I’m heartened by the fact he has gained substantially on the Florida greens in all appearances at both the Honda Classic and The Players. Last week’s 27th place finish at The Players marks 10 made cuts in a row, with 9 of those finishes 37th or better and 4 in the top 16.

Data Golf currently rank Wyndham Clark as the 33rd best player in the world, just behind Justin Rose in 31st. His Official World Golf Ranking of 109th suggests this is a situation ripe for imminent correction. Considering the recent run of elevated events, it all bodes well for Wyndham Clark in this field.

Taylor Moore

Taylor Moore rated as the best value in my first look for our Valspar Championship picks. Unfortunately, he ending up on the wrong side of the draw and this did move him down the board slightly in my models. However, he still presents decent value if he can fade the weather draw.

Taylor Moore qualified for the PGA Tour after finishing an impressive 4th on the Korn Ferry Tour ahead of the likes of Taylor Pendrith and Davis Riley. A rookie season was quietly solid, qualifying for the Fed Ex Cup playoffs and making it through to the BMW Championship.

He has now started 2023 with real intent. Of all players on the PGA Tour since 1st January with more than 50 recorded approach shots over 200+ yards, Moore ranks 3rd. He has gained +2.68 strokes on approach in 3 of his last 5 starts. Accurate off the tee whilst maintaining distance is an advantage here, as are his putting statistics with missed greens an inevitably for all players. Beside the 35th at the “5th major” last week, he also recently finished 14th at the WM Phoenix Open in another elevated event. It all profiles well for this drop in grade.

Tyler Duncan – Your Valspar Championship Picks Best Value

Surpassing Moore for best value in my model this week was Tyler Duncan. Duncan profiles really nicely for this course, benefits from the weather draw, and is moving into decent form. Duncan has now gained or been at field average for approach in his last four tournaments. He ranks 10th in this field for SG: Total and 15th for SG: T2G over those four events. Notably, he also ranks as number 1 for driving accuracy gaining a massive 15.3% on the field.

The 54th finish last week at The Players should be read a bit more kindly than it first appears on paper. In consideration should be taken in the context of the strength of field alongside a final round losing a 2nd worst -3.36 strokes putting. Had he even putted at field average in the final round, he would have finished a very respectable 27th. That is easily forgivable for me in a first real appearance of note in a huge event like The Players.

Duncan has finished 25th and 39th in his last two appearances here whilst gaining putting. Two missed cuts preceded this, but came when losing with the putter and in pretty dreadful incoming form. However, he has gained on approach here in all 4 starts. The 3rd at the Honda Classic two starts ago is a great pointer to success. He gained +1.53 putting per round to sit 6th for SG: PUTT that week on similar greens, having also gained significantly at that tournament previously. If he can bring that putter through to this week, he could be a real dark horse come Sunday.

Mark Hubbard

Following a career best year in 2022 on the PGA Tour, Hubbard holds some great upside for me this week. Notably, the main difference to last year thus far has been a pretty horrific start to the year putting. Long run data suggests this is actually a strength to his game typically, and encouragingly he gained +1.15 strokes putting here last year. With putting one of the most volatile statistics, it can also be the quickest to return.

As well as gaining strokes putting last week when 35th at The Players, Hubbard gained across the board last week. He has gained for driving accuracy in 7 straight tournaments and his approach play has improved lately as well. This all suggests his ball striking is in fine shape. Hubbard actually sits 9th of all players on the PGA Tour since 1st January with more than 40 recorded approach shots over 200+ yards. Driving accuracy, improved ball striking, and long irons all leads to a picture that should fit here.

Kevin Roy

Finally, I can’t resist a speculative play on Kevin Roy at overly inflated odds. Kevin Roy is in a rich vein of ball-striking form, sitting 3rd in this field for SG: APP over the last 3 months. A lot of these approach gains have come at 150 yards or more. Particularly, he sits 4th on the PGA Tour in 2023 with more than 25 recorded approach shots over 200+ yards. Perhaps even more eye-popping is that he is 11th in this field for SG: T2G over the last 3 months. He has also gained significantly on the field for driving accuracy in his last two starts, suggesting the excellent ball striking should continue here.

Also of note is that Roy is somewhat of a local. He moved to Tampa Bay straight after college and has been based in the area ever since. You have to imagine he has played this course a number of times and will experience some comfort of that local knowledge, as well as staying at his own home each night. A lot will come down to whether he can find his putter here. However, having gained putting in 5 of his last 8 starts that is certainly with the risk for me at such a huge price.

Thank you reading our 2023 Valspar Championship picks. For an article with insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here!