DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 
It was another huge winner for this column last week, as Wyndham Clark secured a decisive victory at a huge price of 75/1. Another promising lead-in to this week’s AT&T Byron Nelson Picks!
We had been on Clark for quite sometime. Notably, his approach play had increased astronomically at the beginning of 2023. His Data Golf ranking was also substantially out of sync with his World Golf Ranking. This always provides a situation where imminent correction can be expected. We had also selected Clark the week before at the Mexico Open, as had many others.
A poor first round of 73 took him out of contention and threatened a missed cut, which was due solely to a lacklustre putting display. However, he followed this with rounds of 67, 69, and 65 to fight back to 24th. His price the following week had adjusted far too dramatically as a result and we were happy to pounce on the inflated odds.
Course Analysis
Although this tournament was first established in 1944, TPC Craig Ranch has only played host for the two previous editions.
The course this year will play as a par 71 at 7,414 yards. The 12th hole has been converted from a par 5 to a long par 4. This is a direct attempt to curb scoring, which has got a little out of control in previous tournaments. At the end of the day, although the overall score may reduce slightly, this is a relatively straightforward test for our AT&T Byron Nelson Picks.
One unique aspect of the course is the zoysiagrass fairways. This is relatively rare on the PGA Tour, only appearing at TPC Southwind and East Lake. This grass has been both praised and criticized by various golfers. It tends to play on the softer side, with players describing it as “if playing off a tee” as it tends to hold water better than other variants. Others have commented that the ball can come out with some extra spin and even generate some unexpected flyers. Fairways are wide and the rough is not overly penal.
Greens are large at 6,778 sq ft and a return to bentgrass greens, last seen at Augusta National. TPC Southwind also conveniently features the same grass type to further strengthen those ties for our AT&T Byron Nelson Picks.
The final remark will be on the approach buckets to target. This course features a disproportionate number of approach shots over 200 yards, accounting for a third of all iron shots. Further, two thirds all strokes occur from over 150 yards.
Course Comps for AT&T Byron Nelson Picks
Again, please be careful for your AT&T Byron Nelson Picks to use course history this week rather than tournament history due to only hosting the two prior events. In addition the two PGA Tour events, the course hosted the 2012 and 2008 Web.com Tour Championship tournaments. It also hosted a 2019 Korn Ferry Tour Q School second stage event.
TPC Southwind should be a key guide this week. The zoysiagrass fairways, similar approach numbers, and bentgrass greens provide a great correlation to TPC Craig Ranch. Additionally, this is host to the BMW Championship so elite performance in this strong field should translate nicely to a weaker event.
Other guidance can be found at TPC Summerlin, where low scoring and approach are key. TPC Scottsdale, another Tom Weiskopf design, also shares links to back-to-back winner K.H. Lee. Lee was runner up there prior to his first victory in 2021 and was the First Round Leader last year prior to his successful defense.
Weather for our AT&T Byron Nelson Picks
Another tricky weather week is upon us. I made a prediction on this week’s PGA Draftcast that this may end up a 54 hole tournament. Particularly, the Tour will not want to intrude on the build up to next week’s major, the PGA Championship. Thunderstorms are forecast everyday, with Saturday particularly looking very patchy. Certainly, any significant delays and a truncated tournament could well be on the cards. Significantly, this opens up options for in-play betting, as outsiders towards the top of the leaderboard may be able to hold on if the tournament is shortened.
Certainly, Thursday AM looks to be the lowest winds of the tournament. Friday PM also has predictions for the lower winds for round 2, although thunderstorms are also forecast.
I believe the Thursday AM/Friday PM is where any edge will fall. However, we are hampered somewhat by that thunderstorm threat, which may flip any edge which develops. I suggest building DFS lineups as 40% Thursday AM, 20% Thursday PM, and 40% mixed with a lean towards AM tee-times.
AT&T Byron Nelson Picks
Suggested Staking
Scottie Scheffler – Your AT&T Byron Nelson Championship Picks Favourite
10pts WIN Only +400 (Draftkings/Fanduel)
or 10pts Enhanced Win Only +450 (Bet365)
Seamus Power
2pts WIN +4400 (Fanduel)
2pts Top 10 +410 (Fanduel)
or 2pts E/W +4000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Stephan Jaeger
2pts WIN +5000 (MGM)
2pts Top 10 +410 (Fanduel)
or 2pts E/W +4000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
2pts WIN +6600 (Fanduel)
2pts Top 10 +550 (Fanduel)
or 2pts E/W +6000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Ryan Palmer
0.5pts WIN +15000 (Fanduel)
0.5pts Top 10 +900 (Draftkings)
or 0.5pts E/W +12500 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pts Top 20 +410 (Fanduel)
Matthew NeSmith – Your AT&T Byron Nelson Championship Picks Best Value
0.5pts WIN +15000 (Fanduel)
0.5pts Top 10 +1100 (Draftkings)
or 0.5pts E/W +12500 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pts Top 20 +450 (Draftkings)
DFS Core: Scheffler, Bezuidenhout, NeSmith.
Thank you reading our 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson picks. For an article with insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here!
DP World Tour Soudal Open Picks are available now in the WinDaily Discord Channel here.
