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Qatar Masters Picks & Advice: Everything You Need to Know About Doha Golf Club

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 1 year ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Doha Golf Club again plays host to our Qatar Masters picks

With just the one tournament this week, the eyes of the golfing world turn to the Qatar Masters on the DP World Tour. We have had an excellent record in national opens this season. We have correctly included the winner in our selections for the Canadian Open (Taylor 66/1), US Open (Clark 80/1), British Masters (Hillier 80/1), Irish Open (Norrman 45/1), and the Open de Espana (Pavon 80/1). An excellent omen for our Qatar Masters picks!

This tournament has shifted about a bit over the past few years. Originally held as part of the “Desert Swing” in January, it shifted to March, yet now pops up on the calendar at the end of October. It should not make too much difference to the golfer profile we search for this week, but more on this in our weather analysis. It does, however, mean that the tournament takes on added significance as the final event of the regular schedule. This is the last chance for many players to secure their DP World Tour playing rights for 2024. It is also a final opportunity to qualify for the Nedbank Challenge and DP World Tour Championship in the coming month. I’m looking forward to attending the latter in Dubai, so I will make sure to post some pictures in the Win Daily Discord for all our premium members.

ZOZO Championship Recap

We had the 36 hole leader on both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour for another week with multiple options in contention. At the ZOZO Championship, Beau Hossler once again put himself in prime position. Our Premium members will know we have been on Hossler for the past three weeks. Notably, his approach play is showing some great improvement. Typically a long driver of the golf ball with excellent putting, addressing the weakest part of his game will see him win on the PGA Tour in the near future. He eventually finished 2nd for a full place payout at equivalent odds of +600.

That was behind an impressive Morikawa, who ended his dry spell in emphatic fashion. I’ll admit I did hold concerns for Morikawa in the high winds forecast in rounds 1 and 2. To some extent, that did come to fruition. Morikawa was back at even par four holes into his 3rd round. He then miraculously played his final 32 holes at 14 under to win by some margin. We also had Cam Davis, who was 8th at the 36 hole mark and eventually just missed out on place money in 12th. Xander was 4th at halfway, but a dreadful weekend saw him tumble well out of contention.

Andalucia Masters Recap

The DP World Tour remained in Spain for the Andalucia Masters. With a new course, some guess work was required. We got it spot on for the weather draw, with a decent weather edge for those avoiding the highest winds. Our key course comp of Al Hamra also proved true, with winner Adrian Meronk having finished 4th and 6th in his two appearances at the Ras Al Khaimah Championship.

Despite the course favouring longer hitters, it was the accurate Spaniard Adrian Otaegui who held the 36 hole lead for us. He was well in contention entering Sunday, including playing his first 48 holes bogey free despite high winds. To his credit, he pushed hard for victory firing at every pin. That is all you can really ask for a golfer in such position, although it did eventually cost us another full place payout finishing 9th.

Our 140/1 selection Adri Arnaus also came out firing in the 3rd round, shooting up the leaderboard to join Otaegui in the lead on Saturday. He faded slightly in the final round, but a 19th place finish was good enough for a partial Top 20 payout and a Top 40 hit. We also cashed a Top 20 bet on Sebastian Soderberg in 19th, again reduced due to dead-heat rules.

Doha Golf Club Course Analysis

Heading into our Qatar Masters picks, Doha Golf Club plays host once again. This course has played host to this tournament since 1998, except in 2020 and 2021 when the event was held at neighbouring Education City Golf Club. Therefore, it is important to ensure you read course history rather than tournament history when analyzing your data.

Course form also proves to be more “sticky” here than other venues. You should give more weighting to prior performance here than on other courses. Basically, if golfers have played well here before they are statistically more likely to do so again. Conversely, do not be surprised if players in form don’t carry that with them to Doha have they struggled here previously.

I’ve previously referred to this course as one of the “faux links” we see on the DP World Tour. The course is designed by Peter Harradine, but it is the work of Kyle Phillips that provides the most guidance. Phillips designed Kingsbarns, one of the regular courses from the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship rotation. He also created other faux links courses Yas Links, in Abu Dhabi, and Bernardus, an inland but exposed links course hosting the KLM Open. The former also has paspalum grass. Paspalum is often found in ocean side and tropical courses, due to it’s sturdy nature and higher salt tolerance.

The key reason for all this is wind. The course is very exposed, with virtually no protection from the winds. Fairways and greens are undulating and well bunkered. Certainly, the course demands a specific skillset you don’t often see for the majority of the season.

Course Comps for our Qatar Masters Picks

For all the aforementioned reasons, our course comps are dominated by links form. The Alfred Dunhill Links and, to some extent, The Open Championship have been good guides here. Likewise, the Kyle Phillips designed Yas Links and Bernardus provide good correlations to Doha Golf Club.

Yet it is another Phillips design which is perhaps the best course comp to guide your Qatar Masters picks. Verdura Golf Club hosted the Sicilian Open on four occasions. However, the correlation is significant.

Alvaro Quiros has won at both courses. Michael Lorenzo-Vera finished 2nd there in his one appearance and has a record in Doha of 30-59-4-10-2. Thorbjorn Olesen won at Verdura (having also won and finished runner-up at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship). He has a 2nd and 3rd at Doha GC. Chris Wood, who was 5th as an amateur at The Open then 3rd the next year, finished runner-up to Olesen at Verdura and then won in Doha the next year. Joakim Lagergren went the other way. He finished runner-up at the Qatar Masters and then won at Verdura the following here.

Education City form shouldn’t be completely thrown away, Campillo having won on that course and holding a good record on this track. Likewise, general form in the Middle East is seen as a positive for our Qatar Masters Picks.

Weather for our Qatar Masters Picks

As mentioned, the tournament has shifted from March to October this year. Conditions should present quite similar. Both March and October are in the shoulder season, with temperatures consistently in the range of 30-35C (high 80s-low 90s for those metrically opposed).

What is also consistent is the wind. All coastal Middle East golf courses experience a sea breeze from early afternoon. As the land heats up, air rises and creates a lower pressure area. This causes the air above the ocean to move onshore. When I was learning to play golf in Dubai, you could almost predict when these winds would hit to the minute. The impact was also severe, and playing longer holes into the high winds became very difficult.

This week, Thursday morning provides for the lowest winds of the two rounds prior to the cut. Friday morning will also present better conditions than the afternoon. However, some moderate winds will start building a couple of hours earlier than Thursday. Although no significant weather edge exists for our Qatar Masters picks, general ability to play in the wind is essential to success here.

Qatar Masters Picks

Suggested Staking

Thorbjorn Olesen
2.5pt E/W +2500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Ewen Ferguson – Your Qatar Masters Picks Favourite
2.5pt E/W +2800 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Adrian Otaegui
2.5pt E/W +3300 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Sebastian Soderberg
2pt E/W +6000 (William Hill with 8 palces 1/5 odds)

Jeff Winther
1pt E/W +6600 (Bet365 with 8 palces 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +350 (TAB)

Michael Lorenzo-Vera
1pt E/W +7000 (Bet365 with 8 palces 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +333 (TAB)

Matthew Jordan – Your Qatar Masters Picks Best Value
1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 palces 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +335 (Unibet)

Will Besseling
0.5pt E/W +17500 (Bet365 with 8 palces 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +650 (TAB)
And
2pt Top 40 +240 (TAB)

Summary

Thank you reading our Qatar Masters picks article. Meanwhile, you can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process when you click this link here!

Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask myself and other experts direct questions for your DFS lineups and betting queries, as well as one-on-one coaching. Make sure you are linked in to your premium channel, as we often have exclusive betting plays within the Discord channels.

1 year ago 0 comments

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ZOZO Championship Picks: Everything You Need To Know About Narashino CC

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Narashino Country Club plays host to our ZOZO Championship Picks

ANOTHER ONE. Another week and yet another winner from the pages of DeepDiveGolf! Mathieu Pavon completed a relatively stress free wire-to-wire victory paying a juicy 80/1. In a quirky stat, we’ve had a ridiculous run of winners at national opens. We’ve successfully picked the winner at the Canadian Open (Nick Taylor 66/1), US Open (Wyndham Clark 80/1), Irish Open (Vincent Norrman 45/1), and now Mathieu Pavon at 80/1 for the Open de Espana. You could convince me to add Daniel Hillier winning the British Masters at 80/1 to the list. And, although this is not a national open (the Japan Open Golf Championship was actually last week), we are in fine form for our ZOZO Championship picks.

I feel even more aggrieved now that we tipped Ryo Hisatsune in 3 out of the 4 tournaments before he won the Open de France at 100/1. If you’ve followed our suggested staking in 2023 using $10 per unit, then you are over $9,000 in profit.

The first many will notice about Narashino Country Club is that there are two greens on every hole. This is common in Japan and comes with many benefits. Firstly, having two greens allows one to be restored or undergo aeration whilst the other is played. Secondly, it allows variety for course members and regulars. Finally, in a country like Japan which has extremely hot and humid summers then snow in winter, it would be used by having different grass types on each green for the seasons.

https://x.com/PGATOUR/status/1187072948152061952?s=20

Narashino Country Club Course Analysis

Fortunately for analysis this week, the course will mostly use just one of the greens. Any shots that end on the other green will be eligible for free relief. However, do note we have seen them previously alternate between the greens on a few select holes.

The ZOZO Championship and Narashino CC makes for a tricky format and course to handicap. The usual strokes gained data are not recorded without trackman travelling to Japan. A reduced field and no cut also adds a wrinkle to the format for our ZOZO Championship picks. Basically, with all golfers playing 4 rounds the cream tends to eventually rise to the top. Analysis of previous leaderboards here and from the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, good drive percentage should be a useful stat this week. It doesn’t necessarily matter if you are long off the tee or straight, just that you do one. If you can have both, that is certainly a bonus but reduces the pool largely to the elite.

Another key to our guidance this week is approach from 150-200 yards. Golfers will see 1.5-2 strokes more within this bracket each round, depending on driving distance. This means roughly 60% of approach will fall within this yardage. Looking through prior leaderboards, players who have played well here are also high in the rankings within this yardage.

Tree-lined fairways are carpeted with zoysiagrass. This unique grass is polarizing and seen rarely on the PGA Tour. Some golfers have remarked they like that this sturdy grass acts like your balls is teed up. Others golfers have lamented that the grass can produce flyers.

Finally, a solid short game is imperative. With a winning score likely to end in the -15 to -18 range again, key up and downs are key to maintaining momentum to compile a score.

Course Comps for our ZOZO Championship Picks

Last year’s winner, Keegan Bradley, provides a guide to course comps for our ZOZO Championship picks. Prior to his victory, he had also recorded a 7th and 13th in his three starts. TPC River Highlands, where he also won the Travelers Championship, has formlines as well as using similar bentgrass greens. Brendan Steele was runner up here on his first look and has 9 Top 25s at TPC River Highlands from 12 starts.

Bradley is also a winner at Firestone Country Club (former host of the Bridgestone Invitiational). Tiger Woods holds a ridiculous record there, and won on his sole start here in 2019 for perhaps his last PGA Tour victory. I dislike using Tiger as a guide, as he simply won almost everywhere he played. But 2019 Tiger was quite a different proposition, so it does seem relevant he won on first look here.

I also generally dislike using Augusta as a comp, as it obviously attracts the best field in golf. However, treelined fairways and undulations visually provide a comparison. Xander Schauffele won the Olympics gold medal in Tokyo 2020 and has finished in the top 10 at The Masters in 50% of his starts.

Xander is also a winner at The Old White TPC (former host of the Greenbrier Classic). Sebastian Munoz provides further links, finishing 4th at Narashino Country Club and a record of 3rd and 7th at The Old White TPC.

Finally, other zoysia fairway courses of TPC Southwind and TPC Craig Ranch can be used for approach play on this unique grass type.

Weather Forecast for our ZOZO Championship Picks

Weather could well be a factor across the first two days for our ZOZO Championship picks. Thursday morning has a small chance of fog delays and will be cold. Winds will pick up throughout the day, with gusts around 20mph from early afternoon. However, prevailing winds will remain relatively moderate.

Friday morning will again experience lower winds, before building substantially later in the afternoon. Winds could reach as high as 25mph prevailing with gusts above 40mph.

Although there are condensed tee times with the reduced field, there remains potential for a weather edge there. Those going off earliest on Friday morning should experience an advantage for at least 9 holes. If any fog delays do occur or there is a substantial temperature difference on Thursday, we could potentially see the edge move across both the first two rounds. I certainly don’t see the edge being sufficient to completely rule out a player from your player pool. However, it should play a factor in your decisions this week. Especially, in situations when deciding between two similar players for DFS purposes.

ZOZO Championship Picks

Suggested Staking

Xander Schauffele – Your ZOZO Championship Picks Favourite
5pt E/W +800 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Cam Davis
4pt E/W +2000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Beau Hossler
2pt E/W +4000 (William Hill with 7 places 1/5 odds)

Tom Hoge – Your ZOZO Championship Picks Best Value
1pt E/W +6600 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +200 (Unibet)

Michael Kim
0.5pt E/W +10000 (William Hill with 7 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pt Top 20 +240 (William Hill)

Summary

Thank you reading our ZOZO Championship picks article. Meanwhile, you can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process when you click this link here!

2 years ago 0 comments

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Shriners Children’s Open Picks: Everything You Need to Know About TPC Summerlin

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

TPC Summerlin plays host to the Shriners Children's Open picks

Time flies when you’re having fun (or getting old). It’s 12 months since I was meeting up with our fellow WinDaily Sports superstar and fellow golf data nerd Spencer Aguiar (aka @TeeOffSports). We had an awesome time exploring TPC Summerlin and watching our Shriners Children’s Open picks during the first round in 2022. Work and child commitments meant I needed to fly back to New Zealand after a whistle stop 16 hours in Vegas.

But before leaving, we did get to witness one of the greatest shots of the year from Sungjae Im. We were standing by the green waiting for the group to play up and could not even see Im down in the waste area. He managed to produce the spectacular:

The Week Just Been

It was a week of close calls for us on both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour last week. At the Sanderson Farms Championship, our 200/1 selection Zecheng Dou was close to another first round leader. He bogeyed the last to miss out on the places at equivalent odds of +4000. We did however cash Top 20 and Top 40 bets on him at +500 and +200. We also cash a Top 40 on Vince Whaley at +170 and a Top 20 for Erik Van Rooyen +233 (reduced under dead-heat rules).

Over in Europe, sadly the Alfred Dunhill Links was heavily affected by adverse weather conditions. Heavy flooding saw two days abandoned and the tournament reduced to 54 holes with all professionals playing the three rounds. Matthew Southgate surged into the lead, only to be caught down the stretch by Matthew Fitzpatrick. His 2nd place finish cashes a full place at +1320 and our Top 20 at +260. Another huge priced outside Jeff Winther was our next near miss. Selected at 250/1, he finished just one shot outside the a place payout at +5000 in 10th. We cash a Top 20 at +750 and a Top 40 at +320.

All up, we finish the week with a small profit and a tinge of what could have been.

TPC Summerlin Course Analysis

Host for our Shriners Children’s Open picks is TPC Summerlin, an oasis in the desert of Las Vegas. The course plays as a par 71 at 7,255 yards. I’ve seen a lot of rhetoric, as we often do, that driving distance is an advantage here. Yes, driving distance is always an advantage at any golf course. Statistically, driving distance doesn’t have a massive predictive factor on final result here. We have seen both long drivers and accurate drivers find success here. Part of this is as a result of the course playing shorter than it’s yardage due to the high altitude and thinner air.

Approach does see an uptick for shots under 150 yards, with an additional two approach shots within this range. This is a combination of no truly drivable par 4 and of the 3 par 5s one is a long 606 yards and another features a gnarly second shot over water if going for it.

Primarily we see a significant uptick in SG: Putting and, secondly, SG: Around-The-Green. This correlates with an increase in bogey avoidance and birdie % here. It is no surprise that Cantlay has found such success on this course, having been in the top 5 on the PGA Tour for birdie percentage for the last couple of years.

Course Comps for our Shriners Children’s Open Picks

The somewhat generic nature of TPC Summerlin is also reflected in the course comps this week. No one course stands out as a common thread between the course analysis and performance here. Where we do see correlation is on the leaderboards on other desert courses.

The American Express is played in the desert of neighbouring California. This has the added benefit of seeing an uptick in approach from under 150 yards and a heavy emphasis on putting performance. It often turns into a birdie fest and, as Rahm famously said, “a f*cking putting contest.”

For similar reasons, TPC San Antonio and the Valero Texas Open shows some correlation to TPC Summerlin leaderboards. Another desert course where the driver is somewhat neautralized, but with a heavy emphasis on the short game particularly around the green.

Finally, don’t discount form from the DP World Tour at the Dubai Desert Classic. The tournament always attracts one of the strongest fields on the DP to -World Tour. It is a Rolex Series event and they also pay generous appearance fees. Scores to win there typically range from -18 to -25.

Weather for our Shriners Children’s Open Picks

There appears to be little weather edge to take advantage of this week. Thursday should see winds decrease as the day goes on. However, this will be offset somewhat by the greens firming up and getting faster in the Nevada sun. Friday morning will see winds marginally lower than in the afternoon.

Overall, I would give a small weighting on players starting Thursday PM/Friday AM for the first two rounds. The edge is not substantial. Therefore, I would recommend only building a few stacks playing across those tee-times but certainly wouldn’t remove players from my player pool exclusively due to the weather forecast.

Shriners Children’s Open Picks

Suggested Staking

Adam Schenk – Your Shriners Children’s Open Picks Favourite
3pt E/W +3300 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Davis Thompson
2.5pt E/W +4000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Lucas Herbert
2pt E/W +4500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Beau Hossler
2pt E/W +5000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout
1pt E/W +6600 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +300

Chesson Hadley – Your Shriners Children’s Open Picks Best Value
1pt E/W +9000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +375

Erik Van Rooyen
1.5pt E/W +15000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +500 (Bet365)
And
4pt Top 40 +175 (Bet365)

Summary

Thank you reading our Shriners Children’s Open picks article. Meanwhile, you can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process when you click this link here!

2 years ago 0 comments

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Open de France Picks: Everything You Need to Know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

The spectacular Le Golf National plays host to our Open de France picks

Having selected winner Vincent Norrman at 45/1 and Ryan Fox in 3rd at 40/1 at the Irish Open, it was a week of what could have been at the BMW PGA Championship. Undoubtedly, my fellow countryman Ryan Fox was a deserving winner. The composure he displayed down the final stretch was incredibly compelling. Despite the huge number of arguably bigger names breathing down his neck, Fox recovered from a triple bogey on the 3rd hole to play the final 15 at 8-under. He continues to impress in the big moments and an even bigger 2024 could well be imminent. Could he upset our Open de France picks?

A couple of those bigger names were our headline selections, with Tommy Fleetwood 14/1 and Tom Kim 25/1 sitting just one and two shots back respectively. They both managed to capitulate over the course of the final round, but it was pleasing as always to have live chances well in contention. We also cashed Top 40 bets on Shubhankar Sharma (150/1) and Julien Brun (180/1). It has also been a great year for us at the national opens, having tipped the winner at the US Open, Canadian Open, Irish Open, and British Masters. Can we follow up with a winner at the golf French Open? What a fantastic back-drop to set the scene for our Cazoo Open de France picks!

Course Analysis of the Albatros Course at Le Golf National

With another Ryder Cup just a week away, the DP World Tour returns to a former Ryder Cup venue for our Open de France picks. Le Golf National hosted the 2018 Ryder Cup, where Team Europe handed Team USA a thumping 17.5-10.5. Part of the reason can be found in the course on display this week.

This quirky course has historically provided a stern test. The event moved to October, which hosted the last two renditions in 2019 and 2022 (2020 and 2021 cancelled due to COVID-19). In those events, longer drivers had done well without excluding those lacking distance off the tee. My suspicion is that this tournament will play more as it used to, with a well documented heat wave across Europe providing the firmer conditions previously seen when this was played in summer.

Meanwhile, back to that 2018 Ryder Cup walloping, the Europe victory came down to the fact this is a tricky and positional course which nullifies driving ability. That was frustrating for the Americans, who typical strength of longer driving distance was mitigated by the elements they faced. And with a fast course presented this week, I suspect we face more of the same here for our Open de France picks.

As the multitude of water hazards and unique mounds narrowing the fairways, you’ll see players reaching for a lofted wood or iron off the tee here more often. The key then lies in driving accuracy and precise iron play. Despite the slight reversion towards driving distance the last two years, it is hard to deny Migliozzi, Rasmus Hojgaard, and Colsaerts can absolute flush their irons on their day.

Other than that, avoiding the big mistakes and plotting your way around the course is key with a winning score of -12 to -16 likely.

Comp Courses for our Open de France Picks

Firstly, I’ll note that course history is stickier here than most. Play well here, you have a significantly better chance of doing so again. If you’ve hated the course, you could be in for a tough week. Much of this comes down to the unique nature of this course, which seems rather polarizing for many players.

Celtic Manor provides extremely strong form lines and it is easy to see why. Another Ryder Cup stadium course hosting in 2010, the course features numerous water hazards and narrowing fairways. And, although Celtic Manor admittedly plays longer, that recipe is what our Open de France picks will face this week. Even visually the courses look relatively similar.

Form lines can be found through Graeme McDowall, Alex Noren, and Thongchai Jaidee have won at both golf courses. Thomas Pieters holds a 3rd at both. Jamie Donaldson a 6th and 4th. Uihlein and Sterne have a runner up at both courses. Luiten has won at Celtic Manor and finished 9th and 11th here. Colsaerts had a 4th and 18th at Celtic Manor and won at Le Golf National in 2019. Certainly, it is one of the strongest form links you will find all season.

Other notable courses include Valderrama, whose narrow tree lined fairways and quirky test holds similarities as do leaderboards. Additionally, Valderrama tests the nerve of a golfer with bogeys inevitable and similar winning scores. Your ability to maintain composure can be as important as scoring here. Other similar course guides can be found at Diamond, Eichenreid, and a Challenge Tour event in France the Le Vaudreuil Golf Challenge.

Weather

Certainly, the weather looks tumultuous to say the least over the first two days. The course should receive some very welcome rain for the region on Thursday. The majority of this should occur in the morning. Notably though, this is forecast to be joined by high winds. Gusts in the morning look set to reach above 30mph consistently with prevailing winds in the mid-teens.

Conversely, Friday looks another windy day but with the best conditions in the morning. There is also no rain on the radar. I imagine we see those in the morning benefit from the moisture left in the ground. I don’t suspect this softening in the ground to last long. With high winds and sun in the afternoon, combined with a very hot and dry summer, should see the moisture burn off swiftly.

All of this leads to a firm weather edge to those going off Thursday afternoon and Friday morning over their first two rounds. The majority of our Cazoo Open de France picks come from that weather wave. Therefore, I would be giving a firm weighting of 40% of my DFS lineups favouring that side of the draw. Obviously, the weather can flip at any time and you should be monitoring this for your Open de France picks right up to lock. However, this forecast has remained consistent all week. Back it with confidence and keep your fingers crossed.

Open de France Picks

Suggested Staking

Alexander Bjork
2.5pts E/W +2200 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Adrian Otaegui
2pts E/W +4000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Connor Syme – Your Open de France Picks Favourite
2.5pts E/W +5000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Julien Brun
1pt E/W +7000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
and
2pt Top 20 +320 (Unibet)

Callum Shinkwin – Your Open de France Picks Best Value
1pt E/W +10000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
and
2pt Top 20 +375 (Bet365)

James Morrison
1pt E/W +15000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
and
2pt Top 20 +550 (Unibet)

Soren Kjeldsen
0.5pt E/W +30000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
and
1pt Top 20 +800 (Bet365)
and
2pt Top 40 +275 (Bet365)

Summary

Thank you reading our Open de France picks article. Meanwhile, you can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process when you click this link here!

Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask myself and other experts direct questions for your DFS lineups and betting queries, as well as one-on-one coaching!

2 years ago 0 comments

Sports Betting PGA

The 151st Open Championship Picks

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Claret jug sits at Hoylake Royal Liverpool Golf Club, host for our 151st The Open Championship Picks

Golf snobs will be delighted for the return to Royal Liverpool Golf Club, colloquially known as Hoylake, for the 151st Open Championship. Although last week’s Genesis Scottish Open offers up similar-ish conditions, The Renaissance Club can really only be described at links golf lite. For many, performance on links track remains the true test of golf. It has perennially been an examination of all aspects of a golfers game. Further, one that has managed to largely avoid the increasing advantage of the long drivers that now dominate the leaderboards across the globe. This course is iconic and provides a rugged yet beautiful test for our Open Championship picks.

We were oh so close to yet another winner at the Scottish Open. Rory McIlroy won in near impossible circumstances and continues to impress, as he arrives at a course he won at in 2014. We had just two selections last week with a unit stake over 1. They were Scottie Scheffler, who finished 3rd in typical fashion, and Tyrrell Hatton. Hatton particularly had a 2 shot lead into the last 9 holes, before throwing that away over 6 holes to wind up 6th. That was also in rather typical fashion for what has been a frustrating year for the Brit. We also had young Scot Ewen Ferguson continuing to impress. He was put up at a massive 250/1 and finished up in 12th, just two shots outside the place money but sufficient to cash both Top 20 and Top 40 bets he had recommended.

Royal Liverpool Golf Club Hoylake – Course Analysis

Royal Liverpool Golf Club presents as a stern test for the Open picks. The first, and perhaps more notable feature, are the 6 internal out of bounds areas for the golfers to avoid. For the uninitiated, finding OB off the tee is not just a penalty shot but also loss of distance. It is one of the harshest penalties a golfer can face in regular circumstances. The scary thing with Hoylake is that these areas are often mere yards from the fairway. It does not take much here for things to go very, very wrong. Not something we want for our Open Championship picks!

Further adding to this are strategically placed fairway bunkers. Often occurring right in the key landing distances, these bunkers are deep with extreme faces. They should be viewed as you would a water hazard. The same bunkers are littered around the greens, with many areas shaved and slope to feed your golf ball right to the bottom of the pit.

And yet, we are not done with the hazards here. Thick gorse bushes are found around the course and, again, just mere yards off the relatively narrow fairways. Gorse presents extremely thick bushes with sturdy branches. If finding your ball in them is near impossible, hitting a shot from them certainly is.

Ideal Player Profile for The Open Championship picks

What this means is you can’t simply rip driver here whenever you like. You will need to be extremely strategic and display exquisite course management to be successful. If you can be both long and consistently straight off the tee, then that is obviously best. It is hard to see a winner outside the really great drivers of the golf ball.

Otherwise, driving accuracy would be the preference for our Open Championship picks. Preference is given to long drivers comfortable using iron off the tee when strategically appropriate. Many holes require the player to draw the golf ball so this should also be noted. As always, approach will be a factor. Lesser weighting is given to around the green and putting than those two factors.

Short game is obviously imperative in links golf, so these aren’t discounted entirely. This is given many around the green shots are subject to a little luck where the ball lands in the bunker, lessening some of the around the green skill. With putting, the slower than normal greens provide a moderately easier test.

Course Comps for Royal Liverpool

Hoylake provides a very different test off the tee than last year’s host at the Old Course at St Andrews. That course features huge 100 yard wide fairways and nothing to penal in terms of hazards when driving. A much better comparison can be found at the 2019 Open Championship host Portrush. Visually they are much a like, but they also both have a draw preference to their layout.

A somewhat obscure comparison can be made between the Qatar Masters host, Doha Golf Club. That tournament has thrown out a number of Open Championship winners or likely contenders. That includes Sergio Garcia, Adam Scott, Ernie Els, Henrik Stenson, and Paul Lawrie. The course is a Kyle Phillips design, the same designer of Kingsbarns. That course features in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship rotation, another solid form guide to The Open Championship picks.

For the PGA Tour players, the difficulty comes that they really don’t have any links courses in the USA. Some parallels can be extracted through correlation. First, TPC Sawgrass and Augusta National have provided similar names to the prior Open Championship leaderboards hosted here in 2006 and 2014. They ask similar questions in different ways. The Players requires driving accuracy off the tee with heavy penalty if too wayward. Augusta National requires a strong driver, with excellent approach and around the green play.

Finally, The Honda Classic host PGA National is a great look. Padraig Harrington is a two time champion both at The Open Championship and there. McIlroy, Els, Scott, and Rickie Fowler also dot both the leaderboards there and are either Open Championship winners or runner ups. Any PGA Tour players who have played somewhat well in Scottish Open is a nice bonus for The Open Championship picks.

Weather

Foremost when considering the weather, you should note the unique format at The Open Championship. It is tradition that all players start on the 1st tee. As such, tee times cover a huge range from the early first sunlight hours of 6:35am through to those finishing in twilight at 4:16pm.

This presents a unique question for weather. Typically, coastal areas experience increased wind levels from midday through to late afternoon. This though does tend to fade as it enters evening. The main cause for this is the colder air over the seas moves towards the warmer air over land as it heats up, rises, and creates a low pressure area for the winds to advance.

This rings true across both Thursday and Friday. Of the first two days, Friday looks to be the windier of the two. Rain also looks to be a factor and consistent across the tournament.

Preference is given to those with a very early tee time Friday, which should present the best conditions of that day. Simply though, the key is to not find a golfer stuck in the middle ground for our Open Championship picks. I want golfers who get to take advantage of at least one decent true morning start. Those very late in the day may experience a small benefit too. The risk is ending up stuck with a late morning tee time, when winds are already picking up, and then ending up in the afternoon the next day. This should be avoided wherever possible.

151st The Open Championship Picks

Headline Picks

Patrick Cantlay – Your 151st Open Championship Picks Favourite
2.5pts E/W +2200 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds) with 25% Bet Boost

Shane Lowry
2.5pts E/W +3300 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)

Max Homa
2.5pts E/W +5000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)

Adam Scott
1pt E/W +6600 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +280 (Bet365)

Corey Conners – Your 151st Open Championship Picks Best Value
1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +280 (Bet365)

Ryan Fox
1pt E/W +9000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +335 (Unibet)

[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/new/widget/betslip/1689788095069-adc9-920?id=63fbd158-d2f7-427a-8852-862667446fda”]

Long-Shot Bombs

Note that, as per the Scottish Open, I like to include some long-shot bombs. This comes due to the potential volatility inherent in links golf, presenting opportunities further down the board at inflated prices. This is combined along with the specialist nature that players can develop specific to links courses. You’ll see that the win stake on these is heavily reduced, with the main focus on obtaining exposure in Top 20 and Top 40 markets.

Matthew Jordan
0.25pt E/W +20000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
2.5pt Top 40 +175

Kurt Kitayama
0.25pt E/W +20000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +700 (TAB)
And
2.5pt Top 40 +240 (TAB)

Alex Noren – Your 151st Open Championship Best Long-Shot Bomb
0.25pt E/W +25000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +700 (TAB)
And
3.5pt Top 40 +230 (TAB)

Ewen Ferguson
0.25pt E/W +30000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +650 (Unibet)
And
2.5pt Top 40 +210 (Bet365)

Victor Perez
0.25pt E/W +35000 (Unibet with 7 places, 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +750 (Unibet)
And
2.5pt Top 40 +210 (TAB)

Matt Wallace
0.25pt E/W +40000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +900 (Unibet)
And
2.5pt Top 40 +320 (TAB)

Matthew Southgate
0.25pt E/W +50000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +1000 (William Hill)
And
2.5pt Top 40 +300 (Bet365)

[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/new/widget/betslip/1689788884589-adc9-136?id=c7dca0c6-4471-4b0b-abe5-1615eb7f10a4″]

Player Profiles for The Open Championship Picks

Patrick Cantlay – Your 151st Open Championship Picks Favourite

Cases can be made for all of Scheffler, McIlroy, Rahm, Cam Smith, and Koepka. The fact is that, if anything, they are likely priced very correctly in the market and often below fair odds. This is a volatile tournament and fading the favourites is something we almost just have to do. There is little in the way of value there.

Although somewhat disappointed to miss the opening 30/1 which we liked, I’m still happy to side with Cantlay at the top of the board. The 22/1 on offer can be inflated by 25% with Bet365, which I recommend doing if you have access to that bookmaker.

Look, I know what you’re thinking. Cantlay sucks in majors. I get it. The question comes, do we simply think Cantlay will never win a major? I’m not convinced that will be the case when his career is all said and done. What should also be noted is he is now on a run of 5 consecutive finishes of 14th or better in majors. A good start is imperative to his chances of success, something he can hopefully obtain with a morning tee time Thursday.

Cantlay is one of the strongest drivers in the game. Over the past 6 months, he is the 12th in this field for driving accuracy despite being long off the tee. That jumps to 7th if looking at the last 3 months. Further, he is leader for par 5 scoring on the PGA Tour, a stat he also led in 2022. He has already shown an aptitude for links golf with finishes of 8th and 12th in the Open previously. I expect him to be in the mix come Sunday. Here’s hoping he can then shut the door and silence the critics.

Shane Lowry

Lowry is once again quietly putting together an impressive season. He is one of a small smattering of golfers who have finished in the Top 20 in every major for 2023. That includes 16th and 3rd at The Masters, which should be somewhat correlated to here.

Beyond the obvious correlations from being The Open winner at Portrush, one of the better past courses for guidance here, he has a great record at other comp courses. This includes finishes of 2nd and 5th at the Honda Classic for the past two years and 3 finishes of 16th or better at The Players.

Last week’s Scottish Open was eye catching given a large spike in his short game performance. Typically the weakest element of his game, he wound up 12th despite not possessing his best approach week. A return to normality with his ball striking numbers will see him go close here if he putts even half as well as he did in Scotland.

Max Homa

Look, I know what you’re thinking. Homa sucks in majors. I get it. Much like Cantlay though, I suspect we will see Homa as a major champion at some point in his career and The Open Championship seems to fit well.

Homa has impressed recently at The Players, with finishes of 6th an 13th at his last two appearances. That course rewards both long and straight drivers of the ball, which Homa possesses in spades. Homa’s victories have often come in tough conditions, particularly when it is raining. His wins at the Fortinet Championship and Wells Fargo Championship come to mind. Both were wet tournaments, but also on courses favouring accuracy off the tee. All of his 8 victories bar one have come at scores from -8 to -16. With likely winning score here likely to be in the -12 to -15 range, that fits right in his pocket.

As the 8th best golfer in the world, we are getting an inflated price at 50/1 here. An avid fan of golf history, he is well aware of the special place The Open holds in the world of golf. He would make for a worthy champion.

Adam Scott

We were on Adam Scott last week, who missed the cut right on the number. That may not end up a bad thing, given the volatile winds over the weekend and very early starts that ensued. If not in contention, he was likely best to pack up and head down to Hoylake a little in advance.

He arrives at a course where he finished 8th and 5th in the prior to renditions hosted at Royal Liverpool. Further building to his links (pun unintended) are his two wins at the Qatar Masters and a win at the Honda Classic. Alongside those impeccable credentials are a multitude of top 20s at The Players and a green jacket. Scott could well be the veteran who pops up here for a major win towards the end of a stellar career.

Corey Conners – Your 151st Open Championship Picks Best Value

Conners quietly went about building a decent links warm-up last week with a 19th placed finished at the Scottish Open. We also saw a large increase in driving accuracy but, most notably for Conners, a good week putting.

Conners is long and straight off the tee, rankings 11th in SG:OTT over the last 3, 6, and 12 months and 8th if looking over 2 years. 15th and 28th at the past two Opens suggest he isn’t completely foreign to links golf. He also boasts a great record at Augusta National with a run of 6th, 8th, and 10th at The Masters between 2020-2022. 12th at the PGA Championship is also not the worst guide, with a course that played very well but featured incredibly penal rough if straying a couple yards off the fairway. Should he find a half decent putter, he is a shout to surprise a few here.

Ryan Fox

Patriotism aside, Ryan Fox could well be a sneaky look to sneak another claret jug for New Zealand here. Fox has had a sterling few years as his game continues to grow. He continued that with a 12th place finish last week at the Scottish Open, where he has a previous 4th in 2017.

Not adverse to windy conditions, Foxy has already displayed some of his best on links courses. We saw that in his most notable victory, winning the 2022 Alfred Dunhill Links in sometimes torrid conditions. He also surprised for a 16th at the 2019 Open at Portrush. That came well before the levels we see him playing at now and broke a run of 7 consecutive missed cuts. He also follows those performances at other courses where he is equally happy using a 2 iron off the tree. The Soudal Open comes to mind, where he finished 2nd on a very narrow test hindered when his 2 iron shaft actually cracked on the final day.

He also owns the course record at his home course, Te Arai Links, which he broke in February this year. He shot a 60 there: https://www.europeantour.com/dpworld-tour/news/articles/detail/ryan-fox-breaks-course-record-at-te-arai-links-on-trip-back-home/

If you want to look at similarities, simply go and look at some of the photos of that beautiful piece of land.

I asked in my recent interview with Ryan Fox about what it is about links golf suits his game so well. He pointed to the fact he prefers tests where he feels he doesn’t have to make birdie every hole. That more strategic, methodical approach gives me faith he will put the driver away when needed. When he gets to the par 5s and par 4s, he can let the big dog eat and attack some of those longer holes. Go well Foxy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TzUk1Qjj6so&t=339s

Summary

Finally, thank you reading our 151st The Open Championship picks. Meanwhile, you can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process check this link here!

Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask myself and other experts direct questions for your DFS lineups and betting queries, as well as one-on-one coaching!

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2 years ago 0 comments

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John Deere Classic Picks and Advice: All You Need To Know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

TPC Deere Run hosts our John Deere Classic picks

What a year we are having! Daniel Hillier secured yet another victory from our selections over on the DP World Tour. The 80/1 long-shot secured the British Masters with a stunning final 9 holes, including going eagle-birdie-eagle before a clutch par putt on the 18th. Let’s look for another winner with our John Deere Classic picks.

https://twitter.com/deepdivegolf/status/1675531476836974597?s=20

Hillier made an obvious selection. He had finished 3rd and 5th in two of his three most recent appearances. Realistically, he was in a position to win one if not both of those tournaments. But, the secret sauce actually came from a 2021 Challenge Tour event. The 2021 British Challenge was hosted on the same course at The Belfry. Obviously, it was an easier setup than the DP World Tour tournaments played at the same venue. Hillier finished 14th that week. However, Hillier was the best player in the field over the last three rounds. Likely this was missed by many, but not when we are @DeepDiveGolf!

Course Analysis for our John Deere Classic Picks

TPC Deere Run plays host to this event, as it has since 2000. This short 7,289 yard par-71 completes what should really be coined the wedge, putting contest, birdie-fest swing. A low winning score of between -20 to -25 is likely this week.

The course offers up very little defense. A quick peruse through past leaderboards makes clear driving accuracy is at a premium here for our John Deere Classic picks. The 2017 edition, battled between DeChambeau and Rodgers, provides the sole exception. Rough is reasonably thick at 4 inches, although fairways are not that narrow. Players simply need to be providing themselves a multitude of birdie looks here from within 15 feet. That is best achieved through finding the short grass off the tee. It is an essential element to your John Deere Classic picks.

There will be a disproportionate number of shots between 50-100 yards and, particularly, 100-150 yards. This been the same recipe as seen recently at the RBC Canadian Open, Travelers Championship, and Rocket Mortgage Classic. Over 60% of shots are from 100-200 yards. This is further emphasized given the majority of approach shots over 200 yards will occur on the par 5s and two of the par 3s being over 200 yards.

I will be putting less weighting on putting here than other models. The greens are relatively simple and true, being bentgrass. There is little in the way of undulations or complicated reading here. I’d much rather narrow the focus on fairway finders who will be giving themselves plenty of birdie looks due to elite wedge play.

Key metrics: Driving accuracy, Approach 100-150 yards, Approach 50-100 yards.

Course Comps for TPC Deere Run

Chiefly, a number of recent courses are used as guidance for your John Deere Classic picks. Detroit Golf Club, TPC River Highlands, and Oakdale Golf & Country Club all emphasize accuracy and a disproportionate number of wedge shots. They also provide bentgrass within their green complexes. These courses balance a nice combination of recent form as well as being correlated to what we expect this week.

Other correlations for John Deere Classic picks are at Waialae Golf Club, Sedgefield Country Club, and the American Express tournament. All emphasize driving accuracy and a high number of wedge shots. Therefore, as Jon Rahm infamously described one of the aforementioned, they become a bit of a putting contest.

Weather

There appear to be few pitfalls in the weather this week. Winds look relatively consistent across both Thursday and Friday and any potential weather edge does appear minimal.

There is a small chance of some raining on Wednesday evening. Certainly, this may lead to a softening of conditions for those out Thursday morning. However, the advantage should be minimal. Therefore, this does not factor into our John Deere Classic picks. However, I would provide a small uptick for any lower priced options you are considering in DFS who are going out early in round 1.

John Deere Classic Picks

Suggested Staking

Russell Henley – Your John Deere Classic Picks favourite
3pts E/W +1600 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Chris Kirk
2.5pts E/W +3000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Stephan Jaeger
2pts E/W +4000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Alex Smalley
2pts E/W +4500 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Brendon Todd
1pt E/W +7500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +350 (TAB)

David Lipsky
1pt E/W +12500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And 2pts
Top 20 +450 (Bet365)

Zac Blair
0.5pts +17500 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +600 (Bet365)
And
2pts Top 40 +240 (TAB)

Satoshi Kodaira – Your John Deere Classic Picks best value
0.5pts +35000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +1200 (Unibet)
And
2pts Top 40 +333 (Bet365)

Summary

Finally, thank you reading our 2023 John Deere Classic picks. Meanwhile, you can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process check this link here!

Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask direct questions for your DFS lineups with all of our experts, as well as one-on-one coaching!

PROMO: Use code “GREEN” or “WINBIG” when signing up to receive a one week no obligation free trial.

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2 years ago 0 comments

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Rocket Mortgage Classic Picks and Advice: All You Need to Know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Detroit Golf Club hosts our Rocket Mortgage Classic Picks

It looked for the first two days of The Travelers Championship as we were well on track for the three-peat. Following winners of Nick Taylor 66/1 and Wyndham Clark 80/1, Denny McCarthy led across the first two rounds. Unfortunately, a rare cold putter in the 3rd round saw him fall out of contention. He still collected a full place payout for us along with the Top 20 money to keep the ball rolling. It looks like another birdie fest is instore for our Rocket Mortgage Classic picks.

Course Analysis

Nestled in the heart of Detroit lies the magnificent Detroit Golf Club, a captivating haven for golfers seeking a true test of their skills. With its meticulously manicured fairways, undulating greens, and strategic bunkering, this Donald Ross masterpiece offers an ideal setting for our Rocket Mortgage Classic picks.

Many people will simply look at the list of winners and believe this is a bombers paradise. Seeing names such as Tony Finau, Cam Davis, and Bryson DeChambeau battling Matthew Wolff could lead some to believe driving distance is essential here. That can be a fallacy many fall into. I prefer taking a much more nuanced approach.

We have also seen many shorter but accurate hitters also find success here. Chris Kirk, Troy Merritt, and J.J. Spaun top the list of the best course history here for those with more than 12 rounds played despite being shorter hitters.

What these players do share in common is they are consistently gaining strokes on approach from 50-150 yards. More than 50% of shots will occur from this range. This is significant, especially when you account for Par 3s and Par 5s that are always naturally going to demand longer irons no matter which course you play.

Comp Courses

Sedgefield Country Club is another Donald Ross design featuring tree lined fairways and a reputation as a birdie fest. There are correlating links between the The American Express, not just through Rahm’s infamous putting contest remark but the disproportionate number of wedge shots required there.

Recent results at The Travelers Championship and this year’s Canadian Open host Oakdale Golf and Country Club are noted. These tournaments both feature a large number of wedge shots, tree lined fairways, and greens featuring a bentgrass/poa annua mix. They provide a nice balance between correlated metrics and recent form arriving here for our Rocket Mortgage Classic picks.

Weather for our Rocket Mortgage Classic Picks

There does appear to be a minor weather edge developing for our Rocket Mortgage Classic picks. Golfers fortunate enough to tee off on Thursday morning and continue their second round on Friday afternoon might benefit from calmer conditions, as the forecast suggests a light breeze and moderate temperatures during these periods. Potential thunderstorms Friday afternoon could delay play. Therefore, this would see those golfers get to finish their rounds under calm conditions Saturday morning. This favorable weather window could potentially yield lower scores and provide an advantage for those players.

In contrast, competitors teeing off on Thursday afternoon and continuing their second round on Friday morning might encounter slightly more challenging conditions. The forecast indicates an increase in wind speeds and possible showers during these timeframes.

We predict the scoring advantage to fall in the range of 0.50-0.75 strokes on average. This is likely insufficient to take me off premium players like Hideki Matsuyama. However, it is worthy on noting for lower tier options that the preference should be for them to come from the perceived better weather draw.

Rocket Mortgage Classic Picks

Suggested Staking

Hideki Matsuyama – Your Rocket Mortgage Classic Picks Favourite
2.5pt E/W +2000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Chris Kirk
2pt E/W +5000 (Bet365/William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Stephan Jaeger
2pt E/W +5000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Nicolai Hojgaard
1pt E/W +8000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +333 (William Hill/TAB)

Mark Hubbard
1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +350 (William Hill/TAB)

Joseph Bramlett – Your Rocket Mortgage Classic Picks Best Value
1.5pt E/W +9000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +400 (Bet365)

David Lipsky
0.5pt E/W +20000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +650 (Bet365)
And
2pt Top 40 +230 (Bet365)

Summary

Finally, thank you reading our 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic picks. Meanwhile, you can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process check this link here!

Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask direct questions for your DFS lineups with all of our experts, as well as one-on-one coaching!

PROMO: Use code “GREEN” or “WINBIG” when signing up to receive a one week no obligation free trial.

Obviously this includes all our premium content, personalized advice, Discord premium chat, and future articles. Make sure you are signed up to WinDaily Gold!

2 years ago 0 comments

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Travelers Championship Picks & Advice: All You Need To Know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

TPC River Highlands host this week for our Travelers Championship Picks

Back-to-back winners! What a US Open we had, most notably selecting Wyndham Clark available in some markets as long as 80/1. This marked our second win in as many weeks, having also tipped Nick Taylor at 66/1 in the RBC Canadian Open. Likewise beyond Clark, we had additional winners from the week. We selected both Xander and Rickie in the First-Round leader market at 35/1 and 66/1 respectively. Additionally, Fowler secured us a full place payout and Xander a reduced place payout in 10th. Patrick Rodgers also locked in a Top 40 win for us, in an outstanding week of tipping! This now takes our PGA Tour record in 2023 to a whopping +718 units and a return on investment of 80%. However, there is no rest for the wicked as we go for a threepeat with our Travelers Championship Picks!

https://twitter.com/deepdivegolf/status/1671147586655522817?s=20

Course Analysis for our Travelers Championship Picks

TPC River Highlands plays host this week. The course has hosted this tournament in Cromwell, Connecticut since 1984. As such, we have a wealth of data to go on here and should be able to really narrow our player pool as a result.

Firstly, this provides quite a different test to what we have seen recently. TPC River Highlands is a narrow course with heavy rough and tree-lined fairways. It is one of the most correlated courses between driving accuracy and predicting future success.

Additionally, we will see a disproportionate number of shots under 150 yards this week. At just 6,852 yard par 70, this makes logical sense. Greens are again bentgrass overseeded with poa annua, so recent putting performance should be a fair indicator of how players will handle themselves on these surfaces.

Obviously, the recipe to success here has been relatively simple. Find the fairway, hit a good wedge shot, and make the putt. Scoring typically sits in the -15 to -20 range for the winner. We expect little different this week.

Course Comps to TPC River Highlands

Unsurprisingly, other courses with heavy weighting to driving accuracy and tree lined fairways display a good correlation to TPC River Highlands. We can also look to other Pete Dye designs for guidance, as these do all tend to play quite similar.

For our Travelers Championship picks, courses like Sedgefield and TPC Sawgrass provide obvious similarities. Certainly TPC Potomac provides very similar metrics, as does Austin Country Club. Obviously, the latter being a little more difficult being the host of the WGC Matchplay Championship.

Finally, the recent RBC Canadian Open course Oakdale Golf and Country Club looks very similar. That course featured thick rough, lots of wedge shots, and bentgrass putting surfaces. Obviously, this ticks the box nicely on both a course comp and, additionally, some signs of recent form.

Weather for our Travelers Championship Picks

There does appear to be a decent weather edge developing for our Travelers Championship Picks. Currently, Thursday will have light rain throughout the day. Winds should be steady between 6-9 mph all day. Gusts will increase from 16-18mph in the morning to 20-22 mph in the afternoon.

Friday looks to be where any edge may develop. Rain looks likely overnight and Friday AM winds look very calm. This should see Friday AM provide some of the best scoring conditions. Certainly, winds are forecast to increase as they day goes on. Winds should peak around midday, with prevailing winds at 12-14mph and gusts up to 23-27mph.

We predict the weather edge will finish up between 0.5-0.75 strokes on average. Obviously, this is not insignificant. However, it should be noted there is a small chance of fog and thunderstorms developing Friday AM.

Certainly for purposes of DFS, I would suggest a construction of 30% Thursday PM/Friday AM with 10% the contrarian Thursday AM/Friday PM and the remaining 60% of your lineups being mixed.

Travelers Championship Picks

Suggested Staking

Tom Kim
2pt E/W +4500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Russell Henley – Your Travelers Championship Picks Favourite
2.5pt E/W +5500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Denny McCarthy
1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +300 (Bet365)

Aaron Rai
1pt E/W +10000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +350 (Bet365)

Andrew Putnam
0.5pt E/W +15000 (Bet365/William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pt Top 20 +475 (Bet365)

Mark Hubbard – Your Travelers Championship Picks Best Value
1pt E/W +20000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +550 (Bet365)
And
2pt Top 40 +200 (Bet365)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout
0.5pt E/W +20000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pt Top 40 +240 (TAB)

[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/new/widget/betslip/1687359644619-adc9-864?id=7e6975f0-ca03-407d-9cde-6f95aacc3023″]

Summary

Finally, thank you reading our 2023 Travelers Championship picks. Meanwhile, you can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process check this link here!

Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask direct questions for your DFS lineups with all of our experts, as well as one-on-one coaching!

PROMO: To celebrate our BIG win at the US Open and RBC Canadian Open, we are giving away a FREE one month trial for WinDaily Gold Membership! This is a LIMITED offer, so get in quick!

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2 years ago 0 comments

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U.S. Open Picks & Advice: All you need to know about the 123rd U.S. Open

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

How does Los Angeles Country Club play? The exclusive LACC plays host to our US Open Picks.

What a week at the RBC Canadian Open! Nick Taylor was included in our selections at 66/1, causing EPIC celebrations within the WinDaily Sports Discord akin to the 18th green celebrations on course. The dramatic victory and breaking of 60+ years of hoodoo managed to overshadow the PIF news and the PGA/LIV Golf merger momentarily. There is no rest though, as it is another big week with our US Open picks!

Unlike the drought of Canadian citizens winning their national open, the 66/1 win was simply a continuation of another fantastic year for our selections. We rarely give out match-up plays. However, we saw an edge in Round 4 and we went 6/6 for our selections. This follows the same at the PGA Championship, when we last gave out some Round 4 match-ups and duly went 4/4. We have now shown a return on investment in 2023 of +69% and are up +562.57 units. Profit is already guaranteed in 2023 for those who have followed!

https://twitter.com/deepdivegolf/status/1669011871264034816?s=20

Los Angeles Country Club plays host to the 123rd US Open. This is the first time LA have hosted a US Open since 1940 and the inaugural US Open at this course. In fact, there have been no professional events held at this exclusive club. There have been amateur events, namely a Pac-12 Championship and Walker Cup, but this course will play so different to those events I think any perceived information from those tournaments can be largely discarded. Read on to find what we believe are the key metrics to target this week.

Los Angeles Country Club Course Analysis

The first note is this course, on paper, plays very long. A 7,421 yard would not be uncommon for a par 72. We instead find a par 70, with 5 par 3s and just 3 par 5s. However, I do think the distance needs to come with a few caveats.

Chiefly, the conditions are extremely firm and fast. This will enhance rollout, especially for those with a lower ball-flight. Where I do see driving distance being an asset is the large number of approach shots over 200+ yards. Naturally, those with increased driving distance tend to have higher clubhead speed and therefore can use a higher loft on a long approach shot. Additionally, with some pretty mean and thick rough this week. A semblance of strength will be beneficial for your US Open picks digging the ball out after missed fairways and greens.

https://twitter.com/BradFaxon/status/1668806642765365249?s=20

Much has been made of how wide these fairways are. Again, I think this requires a little more of a deep dive. Fairways are heavily sloped in many instances. In addition to the firm and fast conditions, they will play a lot narrower than on first sight.

With multiple long par 3s and some big par 4/5s, long iron approach will be imperative to success. Again, do note that of the long par 3s some significant elevation changes do occur. The 280 yard 7th hole has an exposed front and will allow players to roll the ball up to the green. The 290+ yard 11th par 3 is also severely downhill.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TcIcBilkJ9k&t=614s

Finally, these greens will be hard to hold. The course is as close to “links” like in nature that you may ever find at the US Open. The ability to rebound from bogeys and save par will be essential for our US Open picks.

What type of golfer suits LACC?

Overall, it looks that this will provide a stern all round examination of a golfer’s game. That starts from SG: OTT. Certainly, I do expect a situation where driving distance take precedence. But, ideally, this also comes with a modicum of accuracy. I believe an average driving distance of at least 295 yards is essential.

I have leaned heavily on long approach for the US Open picks this week. We may even see players resorting to irons and fairways woods to try hold these fairways in certain spots. This will further emphasize the need for elite long iron approach.

Around the green receives the weakest ranking of all the mainstream SG metrics. There will be some luck involved, with the bermudagrass rough around the greens so thick. Also, the long grass takes some of the skill out of such chips. However, I do believe bunker play could be a factor and there are some runoff areas which will produce tight lies.

Finally, I do weight putting a little higher than usual for our US Open picks. Particularly, this is true for bentgrass putting. Inevitably, every player will need to make their share of putts. Birdie opportunities will need to be taken; pars will need to be saved.

Course Comps for our US Open Picks

From what we have been able to discern from the information available, this course does look to be quite a unique test for our US Open picks.

Elements to Augusta National are observed. There is some more width of the tee than we would usually see at a US Open venue, as well as bentgrass greens. Naturally, with the sloped fairways I can see parallels and that rings true for the Plantation Course at Kapalua as well. Plantation also requires a disproportionate number of shots over 200+ yards and under 100 yards. I like that combination, as I believe on top of the long approach shots some closer iron shots may be required if finding trouble off-the-tee.

Other US Open venues of Shinnecock, Chambers Bay, and Erin Hills. Neighbouring Riviera Country Club is also a George Thomas design and holds some parallels.

Finally, I think Scottish Open host the Renaissance Club may be a sneaky parallel. The winning score here has been -7 and -11 previously depending on setup and wind. Although in a links style, it is not a true links course. Exposed and rugged, with undulating fairways and firm conditions, the course appears to strike some similarities to LACC.

Weather for our US Open Picks

The weather still looks to be developing this week and I will provide a final update Wednesday evening in the WinDaily Sports Discord.

Overall, conditions promise to present low humidity and warm temperatures. The course should take little time to crisp up and play very firm and fast in the afternoons particularly.

Both Thursday and Friday currently look to hold a similar outlook with very calm conditions in the morning and winds picking up in the afternoon. The morning should also prevent mildly softer conditions, before the greens firm up in the combination of sun, low humidity, and breeze. As it stands, there looks to be slightly higher and more persistent winds Friday afternoon compared to Thursday.

This pattern looks to continue into the weekend, with winds gusting up to 20-25mph in the afternoons.

Given the above course analysis and predicted weather, I’m projecting a typical US Open winning score of -6 to -9 for our US Open Picks.

US Open Picks

We have 6 headline selections this week. I’ve also included 5 longshot bombs to consider. However, you’ll notice a heavily reduced win stake. The win stake is mainly to take advantage of the generous place terms, and emphasis is on the Top 20/40 options. Selections are weighted accordingly in the below suggested staking.

Headliners: Suggested Staking

Patrick Cantlay
4pts E/W +1400 (William Hill with 10 places 1/5 odds)

Xander Schauffele – Your US Open Picks Favourite Headliner
2.5pts E/W +1800 (William Hill with 10 places 1/5 odds)

Tony Finau
2.5pts E/W +2800 (William Hill with 10 places 1/5 odds)

Justin Rose
2pts E/W +3500 (William Hill with 10 places 1/5 odds)

Rickie Fowler – Your US Open Picks Best Value Headliner
2pts E/W +6000 (William Hill with 10 places 1/5 odds)

Wyndham Clark
2pts E/W +6000 (William Hill with 10 places 1/5 odds)

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Longshot Bombs: Suggested Staking

Ryan Fox – Your US Open Picks Favourite Longshot Bomb
1pt E/W +12500 (William Hill with 10 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +550 (TAB)

Kurt Kitayama
0.25pts E/W +17500 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3.5pts Top 40 +250 (TAB)

Patrick Rodgers
0.25pts E/W +20000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3.5pts Top 40 +170 (Bet365)

Adam Schenk – Your US Open Picks Best Value Longshot Bomb
0.25pts E/W +20000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3.5pts Top 40 +190 (Bet365)

Sepp Straka
0.25pts E/W +25000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3.5pts Top 40 +190 (Bet365)

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Summary

Thank you reading our 2023 US Open picks. For an article with some insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here!

Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask direct questions for your DFS lineups with all of our experts, as well as one-on-one coaching!

PROMO: To celebrate our BIG win at the RBC Canadian Open, we are giving away a FREE one month trial for WinDaily Gold Membership! This is a LIMITED offer, so get in quick!

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2 years ago 0 comments

Sports Betting PGA Premium

Charles Schwab Challenge Picks & Advice: All You Need To Know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Colonial Country Club provides for a narrow, positional test of golf for our Charles Schwab Challenge picks

With a specific type of golfer likely to be successful at Colonial Country Club, I’m excited to get into this week’s Charles Schwab Challenge Picks!

As the sun sets on another major, it is worth reflecting on a tricky PGA Championship at Oak Hill. Oak Hill provided a sterner test than even initial predictions envisioned. However, our winning score prediction was spot on albeit that there was a margin between the top 3 and the rest of the leaderboard. The difficulty of the course proved to be not just for golfers but, also, golf punters. This seems somewhat natural in an environment where missing by just one yard off the fairway can lead to a near unplayable lie. We finally saw some correction come Sunday, with my 5 match-up selections all getting the win. Also cashing are a top 5 finish on Kurt Kitayama at big odds and Alex Smalley for a Top 40. However, Jaeger broke our hearts sitting 10th Saturday before a dreadful final round.

Colonial Country Club plays host this week, as at has since this event was first held in 1946. This is an historic and prestigious event with legends such as Ben Hogan (on 5 occasions), Lee Trevino, Ben Crenshaw, Tom Watson, Jack Nicklaus, and Arnold Palmer all having won here. It is no surprise then to see a strong field for a non-elevated event. The PGA Tour have actually done a commendable job with scheduling post-Majors. RBC Heritage after the Masters was an elevated event this year, this event carries sufficient history to draw stars, and the elevated Travelers Championship will be played the week after the US Open. Although I would not consider the 3M Open in the same vein, it is understandable allowing travel back from the UK after The Open Championship.

Course Analysis for our Charles Schwab Challenge Picks

What type of golfer suits Colonial Country Club? This course provides for a narrow, tree-lined test where driving accuracy is more important than power when finalising your Charles Schwab Challenge picks. Primarily, the positional nature of the golf course is a result of the trees sitting right up to the fairway edge. This requires an accurate tee shot to ensure the best angle into the green without the effect of foliage or hanging branches compromising access.

Additionally, with the relatively shorter length of the course you will see a disproportionate number of approach shots between 100-200 yards. Certainly, targeting approach buckets has its flaws. However, when the range is relatively large and the sheer number of shots is such as we see here it is worthy of considering targeting this range for your Charles Schwab Challenge picks.

Finally, short-game and chipping will be important this week. We see a large uptick in SG: ATG as a predictive factor at Colonial Country Club. This is a combination of the positional nature compromising approach shots. Additionally, the greens play firm and are mid-size targets at an average 5,000 sq ft with plenty of bunkering.

Course Comps for Colonial Country Club

Prior form at Colonial Country Club is helpful for our Charles Schwab Challenge picks. However, it is not one of the “stickiest” in terms of course history that we see on the PGA Tour. There are several courses that can be used as a predictor to Colonial Country Club.

Harbour Town and the RBC Heritage stands out as another positional course where accuracy off the tee is imperative. It is the primary indicator for the Charles Schwab Challenge picks. Overhanging trees are also a factor at this course and the approach ranges are similar to what we will see this week.

Waialae Country Club, host of the Sony Open, is a factor here for similar reasons. Sea Island Resort, where the RSM Classic is held, also ticks these boxes. TPC Southwind and El Cameleon are both courses that demand accuracy off the tee. Finally, consideration to TPC Sawgrass and Sedgefield Country Club should be factors for your Charles Schwab Challenge picks.

Weather Analysis

Wind is often a factor in Texas. However, we look to be set for a calm week guiding our Charles Schwab Challenge picks.

Both Thursday and Friday look set for low winds in single digits, with gusts reaching a moderate 10-15mph. Winds are also less impactful here with many fairways guarded by trees lessening any effect. Certainly, in both rounds 1 and 2 it looks like the morning groups will provide the best conditions. Therefore, it is unlikely to result in any actionable weather advantage for our Charles Schwab Challenge picks.

Do note that weather was quite a factor in last year’s tournament. Scoring was high and a single figure score of -9 was sufficient to get the job done. With less wind in the forecast this week, we suspect a return to a winning score between -14 to -17 is likely.

You can find the latest weather forecasts here.

Charles Schwab Challenge Picks

Suggested Staking

Russell Henley
2.5pts WIN +4000 (MGM/Fanduel)
2.5pts Top 10 +350 (Draftkings)
or 2.5pts E/W +4000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Cam Davis – Your Charles Schwab Challenge Picks Favourite
2pts WIN +4500 (Fanduel)
2pts Top 10 +400 (Draftkings)
or 2pts E/W +5000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Denny McCarthy
2pts WIN +7000 (Fanduel)
2pts Top 10 +500 (Draftkings)
or 2pts E/W +5500 (Bet365 with 8 placed 1/5 odds)

Chistiaan Bezuidenhout
2.5pts WIN +9000 (Fanduel)
2.5pts Top 10 +650 (Draftkings)
or 2.5pts E/W +7000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Brendon Todd – Your Charles Schwab Challenge Picks Best Value
2pts WIN +9000 (Fanduel)
2pts Top 10 +600 (Draftkings)
or 2pts E/W +7000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Andrew Putnam
1pt WIN +12000 (Fanduel)
1pt Top 10 +800 (Draftkings)
or 1pt E/W +12500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +320 (Draftkings) or +400 (Bet365)

Matthew NeSmith
0.5pts WIN +22000 (Fanduel)
0.5pts Top 10 +1200 (Draftkings)
or 0.5pts E/W +17500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +500 (Bet365 or Draftkings)
And
2pts Top 40 +160 (Bet365) or +140 (Draftkings)

Summary

Thank you reading our 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge picks. For an article with some insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here!

Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask direct questions for your DFS lineups with all of our experts, as well as one-on-one coaching!

PROMO: Use the promo code WINBIG here and you’ll receive a no obligation one week FREE trial plus just $5.99 per week for access to all sports.
Includes all our premium content, personalized advice, Discord premium chat, and future articles. Make sure you are signed up to WinDaily Gold!

2 years ago 0 comments

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