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Chris Paddack

We’ve got some live arms and potent bats in this edition of Aces and Bases focusing ONLY on FanDuel’s six-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET.

There’s a couple of bad weather spots to look out for (BOS @ BAL & LAA @ TOR), both of which could offer some scoring opportunities, but we’ll give you some safer and more appealing options.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top Ace: Ian Anderson ($8,600)

Anderson gave up four hits, two BB and just 1 ER in his 2021 debut against these same Philadelphia Phillies on April 4, striking out seven batters in just 5.0 IP. He’s an electric young pitcher who’s shown us both bat-missing dominance in his career so far (11.57 K/9 in the first 37.1 IP over 2020-21). While it’s tempting to slot in Julio Urias ($10K on FD and a solid pitcher in his own right) Anderson has the most upside on the slate and should be locked into most of your builds.

Best Value: Chris Paddack ($6,900)

Paddack makes sense as a low-cost pivot from Anderson a slate without too many usable DFS arms, and it’s because he sports a low walk rate (5.5% for his career) and 9.46 K/9 rate over 203.2 major league IP. He gives up a few solo shots once in a while, and the 1.64 HR/9 metric is one of the more alarming ones on his resume, but strikeouts and preventing huge innings on FD are king, and that’s where he’ll give you more than any other pitcher at this price point.  

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Dodgers vs. Nationals (RHP Austin Voth)

There’s only one team in baseball with better offensive numbers than the Dodgers (and we’ll discuss them in a bit), but the Bashers in Blue boast a very respectable .377 team wOBA and 143 wRC+ through the first week couple weeks of the season, and they are deep – which means they can still bring the pain without a couple stud hitters. The low-scoring affair from last night is almost sure to see a turnaround tonight via the bats of Corey Seager ($4,300), Max Muncy ($3,300) and some other relatively low-cost secondary options in the lineups. With Mookie Betts day-to-day with a back injury and Cody Bellinger on the IL, we can take advantage of whatever mispriced bats slot into their usual spots and roll with the 1-4 hitters.

Value/Contrarian Stack: Padres vs. Rangers (RHP Jordan Lyles)

Using the Padres might be the contrarian route when most of the masses turn to the discounted Dodgers and value-packed Reds. I prefer the 1-4 hitters here, with three lefty bats against a right-hander who’s career .357 wOBA versus LHBs gives us something to attack with Trent Grisham ($2,500), Jake Cronenworth ($3,100) and Eric Hosmer ($3,700). Mix in No. 3 hitter Manny Machado ($3,400) at 3B or drift down to Wil Myers ($3,300) and you’ve got a slew of studs without breaking the bank.

Value Stack: Reds vs. Diamondbacks (RHP Riley Smith)

Virtually any four-man combination of the Reds 1-6 hitters today could yield massive returns against RHP Riley Smith. Righty-lefty doesn’t matter all that much with this bunch, as their best two hitters have been right-handed Nick Castellanos ($4,200) and lefty slugging Tyler Naquin ($3,400). We can expect a positive progression from Eugenio Suarez ($3,100), who always has double-dong potential, and veteran Joey Votto ($2,600), who comes at a massive discount in contrast to his career production. Rounding out the stacking possibilities are Mashin’ Mike Moustakas ($3,300), Jesse Winker ($3,000 – who normally leads off against RHP but is day-to-day with a calf injury) and the red-hot Jonathan India ($3,200), who had 10 hits in his fist 21 ABs of 2021.

Good luck!

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A flashback at some of the best performances from the Tuesday slate plus their outlooks for the remainder of the season on the 9/18 MLB DFS and Betting review and look ahead.

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

9/18 MLB DFS Winner: The Los Angeles Dodgers

Here is a Tuesday snippet from Cash with the Flash by Phil Naessens, our Premium Gold Sports Betting Column. The bet said to go with the Dodgers and you would have won if you have done so. The Dodgers ended up beating the Tampa Bay Rays by a score of 7-5 behind a bullpen day.

Outlook for the rest of the season: Los Angeles is currently sitting with the best record in the National League and is neck-and-neck with both the Houston Astros and New York Yankees for the best record in the Majors. Kenta Maeda made things interesting but the Dodgers prevailed. Expect the Dodgers to continue winning and stay in the race for the best record in baseball.

9/18 MLB DFS Winner: Chris Paddack

As Jason chose him on the Premium Gold MLB Cheatsheet as a value pitcher, Chris Paddack had a good start against the Milwaukee Brewers last night on the road. Paddack ended up going five innings while allowing one run on one hit with a walk and nine strikeouts.

Outlook for the rest of the season: It has been a great rookie campaign for Chris Paddack. His ERA now sits at 3.33, which would be tied with Mike Minor for 18th-lowest in the Majors if he had the innings to qualify. Paddack has shown he has the stuff to be a top-of-the-rotation guy for San Diego as their window for success begins to open up. Expect Paddack to have another two good starts to end the year.

9/17 MLB DFS Winner: Corey Seager

Here is a screenshot from the Premium Projection Model of the guys who were around Corey Seager’s value on the Tuesday slate. Seager had a solid day at the dish against the Tampa Bay Rays, going 2-for-4 with a pair of doubles and four RBI.

Outlook for the rest of the season:Seager is having a good year after missing most of 2018 due to Tommy John. He now has career highs in doubles and RBI. Sliding down towards the bottom of the order, Seager has still been able to produce for this Dodgers lineup. Expect solid shortstop play while being able to drive runners in with some extra base hits.

9/18 MLB DFS Winner: Pete Alonso

Another player from the Cheatsheet, this time as a top first baseman, “the Polar Bear” Pete Alonso went 2-for-4 against the Colorado Rockies on Tuesday night with a home run and two RBI

Outlook for the rest of the season: Alonso looks like he has broken the 0-for-20 cold slide he was on with back-to-back games with multi-hits. Alonso also has the Major League lead with 48 home runs with the New York Mets sitting four games out of a postseason berth with 11 games left. Alonso should easily break the 50 home run mark and boost the offense to keep the Mets alive until the final days.

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A flashback at some of the best performances from the Wednesday slate plus their outlooks for the remainder of the season on the 9/12 MLB DFS review and look ahead.

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

9/12 MLB DFS Winner: Tim Anderson

As Jason had him in our Premium Gold Cheatsheet as a shortstop, Tim Anderson had a solid day at the plate against the Kansas City Royals. At the plate, Anderson went 2-for-4 with a pair of runs scored.

Outlook for the rest of the season: Anderson will be competing with D.J. LeMahieu and Michael Brantley for the A.L. Batting Title. Anderson is currently at .333 after this game with 17 games remaining. Expect Tim Anderson to stay in the top three shortstops as the team has nothing to play for for the rest of the season.

9/12 MLB DFS Winner: Jeff McNeil

Here is a screenshot of the New York Mets batters in order of projected points based off of our Premium Gold FanDuel Hitter Projection Model. Jeff McNeil ended up being their best hitter for the game against the Arizona Diamondbacks. He went 3-for-4 with a stolen base, double, two homers and three RBI.

Outlook for the rest of the season: McNeil has vastly improved in every category this season except stealing bases, so it was nice to see him swipe a bag as well. He is doing a great job providing protection in the lineup to Pete Alonso. Expect Jeff McNeil to continue getting multi-hit games and driving in runners in the middle of this Mets order.

9/12 MLB DFS Winner: Chris Paddack

A screenshot of our Premium Pitcher Projection Model. This was the Top 10 pitchers on yesterday’s slate based on salary. Chris Paddack dominated the Chicago Cubs last night at home, going six shutout innings allowing just three hits and a walk while picking up seven strikeouts.

Outlook for the rest of the season: Chris Paddack is doing great in his spoiler role going down the stretch. This is back-to-back outings without allowing a run. The fact he isn’t showing signs of slowing down in his rookie season is great for the future. Expect Paddack to finish the year strong.

9/12 MLB DFS Winner: Texas Rangers Offense

The Texas Rangers had good prodcution from their lineup at home against the Tampa Bay Rays last night, picking up 10 runs on 10 hits with three walks. Six players in the starting lineup picked up a RBI and they were led by Rougned Odor with the game-winning three-run home run in the seventh inning.

Outlook for the rest of the season: The Rangers are a good run-producing team with the sixth-highest total in the American League at 732. That equates to just under five runs a game. Their offense isn’t the reason they find themselves at 73-74 on the year. Expect the team to produce runs but not to the point where you expect double-digits on a weekly basis.

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A flashback at some of the best performances from the Wednesday slate plus their outlooks for the remainder of the season on the 8/30 MLB DFS review and look ahead.

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

8/30 MLB DFS Winner: Chris Paddack

As Wes Anderson chose him on our Premium Gold Cheatsheet as the value pitcher, Chris Paddack had a great outing against the San Francisco Giants. Paddack went seven innings and allowed a run on five hits and had eight strikeouts on the day.

Outlook for the rest of the season: Paddack seemed to look fatigued his past couple of starts but it is great to see an outing like this out of him. DFS players should expect another clunker this season against a playoff-contending team but overall he should be a solid choice.

8/30 MLB DFS Winner: Jose Osuna

Jose Osuna had a great game at the plate against the Colorado Rockies in Coors Field. He went 2-for-5 with a double, home run, two RBI and two runs. He now has 46 hits and nine have left the park.

Outlook for the rest of the season: Osuna is an utility player that has played both corner infield and outfield spots this season. He isn’t going to be that flashy pick that provides incredible DFS points towards your lineup, but he will be a solid batter that can get a couple of singles or possibly an extra base hit as he tries to showcase for the club what he can do on the Major League level in a lost season.

8/30 MLB DFS Winner: Victor Caratini

Going up against Jacob deGrom is difficult for any hitter, but Victor Caratini was able to be a huge bat for the Chicago Cubs. Caratini went 3-for-4 with two HR and four RBI. As he already toppled his counting stats of last year in less games, there is a chance he could end up on the bench in a playoff series this season if the opportunity arises.

Outlook for the rest of the season: Caratini is not a hitter that puts up incredible numbers, as he currently is batting .274 with nine HR and 28 RBI. Instead, he will be someone who can play a couple of defensive positions and get on base at a decent clip. He is just an average MLB player currently and don’t expect too much out of him for the final month of the season.

8/30 MLB DFS Winner: Arizona Diamondbacks Bats

If you were able to stack a few Diamondbacks last night, you probably had a solid lineup. The team battled against the Dodgers and Hyun-Jin Ryu and dominated him. In total, the Diamondbacks had 11 runs on 16 hits with a pair of free passes. More impressively, they only hit a single homer in the game.

Outlook for the rest of the season: The Diamondbacks have just a 3.3 percent chance of making the playoffs and have a handful of teams ahead of them to have a Wild Card berth. After trading away Zack Greinke at the deadline, it felt like they understood where they were and folded for this season. Don’t expect many more offensive explosions out of them.

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Welcome to a special Thursday edition appearance by me, Jerry Colvin. As a player who does this day in and day out, filling in is easy enough. After all, I already must do the research anyway.

On this 8/29 MLB DFS pitching slate you are going to have to make some clear and very painful choices on DraftKings, fade Coors Field, or not fade Coors Field. At the current salaries if you want any of them bats, you will be taking a chance on pitching. So, without delay let’s get this going.

Sign up NOWfor WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections,weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

LanceLynn vs. Seattle Mariners

$9,300 FD / $10,000 DK

Despite the seven runs allowed to the White Sox in his last start, at his salary on both sites he is the top option on this 8/29 MLB DFS slate. In three starts this year versus Seattle, Lynn has allowed six earned runs over 20 innings while fanning 30 batters. With the Mariners striking out 24.6 percent of the time versus RHPs, combined with Lynn’s 10.4/K9, you have a real shot at some serious fantasy points.

Hyun-JinRyu vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

$9,000 FD / $10,500 DK

Despite my love for the Dodgers, and the joyful repentance I take for the season, and doubt I had in Ryu to ever pitch at this level again, I simply would rather pay for him tonight over Jacob deGrom. I would, however, on this 8/29 MLB DFS slate point out that at deGrom’s price-point on both sites he does make for a very tempting GPP play. Regardless, tonight is still going to come down to being able to afford some decent hitting. The Diamondbacks absolutely destroy LHPs to the tune of a .367 wOBA, and wRC+ of 123. At home they both drop significantly down to .316 and 88.

My worries here are strikeout upside. Arizona is currently only striking out 18.4 percent of the time versus LHP, and Ryu over his last three starts has 14 strikeouts over 20 innings while only allowing one earned run. With numbers like these, despite the decreased strikeout totals, I see no reason not to say thank you, Ryu. This makes the 8/29 MLB DFS even better if he goes through.

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ChrisPaddack vs. San Francisco Giants

$7,000 FD / $9,000 DK

It’s time to man up and make some hard decisions on this 8/29 MLB DFS slate. Over his last four starts spanning 17 innings versus the Dodgers, Red Sox, and Phillies, Paddack has allowed 19 earned runs. Now this does indeed scare the boxer briefs off me. The fact remains all three of them teams mentioned above are far better than the Giants. San Francisco is striking out 22.6 percent of the time versus RHPs, and have a home .wOBA of .281 to compliment the wRC+ of 75.

Both are 30th, opening the door for Paddack to have a strong bounce-back start facing a team he has shown success against in two previous starts this season.

Alex Woodvs. Miami Marlins

$7,500 FD / $7,900 DK

Alex Wood, yes that is where we have landed. Alex Wood. Remember that name tonight because salary wise if you were to go any lower, the blow-up risk associated here is the difference between the first musket, and a modern-day shotgun. He has absolutely been beaten up over his last four starts facing the Pirates, Cardinals, Nationals, and Cubs.

Now the difference between them and the Marlins is day and night. The Marlins are striking out 22.5 percent of the time versus LHP with an increase to 26.1 over the last seven days. To throw the proverbial cherry on top the only two teams with worse home numbers are the Tigers, and Giants (ring a bell?). On this 8/29 MLB DFS slate with limited cheap options, I would eat a good dinner and tell myself this is his best chance for Wood to come out solid.

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On this 7/29 MLB DFS Pitching slate, it is essential to save money for Coors Field bats. We help you budget properly for Monday.

Chris Paddack vs Baltimore Orioles

DraftKings – $10,200, FanDuel – N/A

Chris Paddack, while at home, has been one of the most effective starters in the league this season. At home he holds a 2.36 ERA with a 1.66 BAA. A sparkling 10.93 K/9 helps my argument here. The Orioles are one of the league’s worst offenses, not to mention that they strike out with the best of them. The Orioles implied run total will be low and that will give me all the confidence to run Paddack on both sites for 7/29 MLB DFS Pitching.

Sonny Gray vs Pittsburgh Pirates

DraftKings – $9,400, FanDuel – $9,200

To start the second half of the season Sonny Gray has been the Sonny Gray of old. In his 19 innings so far, he holds a 1.89 ERA and a staggering 11.37 K/9. A stat I’m keeping an eye on is his consistent ground ball rate which is sitting at 51.3% in the second half. With the Pirates implied run total opening up at 4.1 and already dropping .1 I have zero problem running Sonny Gray as a pivot off Paddack and/or pairing with him on DraftKings in 7.29 MLB DFS Pitching.

Jaime Barria vs Detroit Tigers

DraftKings – $7,200, FanDuel – $7,200

I know this is gross, but if we want Coors action we need this. Barria has been pretty good if we look at his home numbers: 2.04 ERA, .214 BAA and a 9.17 K/9. The Tigers are most likely going to be without Nicholas Castellanos as he looks like he’s dealing with an apparent injury. Other than maybe Miggy, I am no afraid of anyone in this lineup. Barria gives us all the salary relief we need here in 7/29 MLB DFS Pitching.

Brad Keller vs Toronto Blue Jays

DraftKings – $8,400, FanDuel – $8,400

Another salary relief pitcher here that we can take a look at. Early on a ton of money is coming in on the Royals so this gives me confidence in the win bonus to say the least. After starting out the season red hot, Keller took a beating in May and June. Since then, as the second half has started, he has posted a 1.27 ERA and a .215 BAA. The strikeout numbers are average sitting at only 7.17 K/9, but the Blue Jays strike out enough that I can see him hitting seven. 

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This report will provide recommended DFS stacks for today’s nine-game main slate. I will also include my favorite pitching picks.

**All plays are listed in order of preference. Please check back between 5-6 PM EST as some players can receive rest days or get limited at bats especially as we get closer to the postseason.

Los Angeles Dodgers Stack

vs. RHP Nick Pivetta (PHI): 5.80 Runs

**Another game with rain out potential. At the moment it looks like the storms should hold off until after the game but i advise you to monitor the weather here as it looks shakey up and down the east coast tonight.

Nick Pivetta is on the mound this evening for the Phillies. He carries an average 5.81 ERA, 5.75 FIP, and 4.89 SIERA on the year. Pivetta has fairly identical splits, with batters slashing to a .360 wOBA, .530 SLG, and .340 OBP across 66.2 innings. He has given up 27 earned runs across 33 innings to right handed batters. He has also allowed 16 earned runs in 33 innings to left handed batters. The core of this Los Angeles Dodgers team is their left handed power and they have been tearing up right handed pitching. They are slashing to a .355 wOBA, .223 ISO, and 121 WRC+ over the last month to righties.

Preferred Stack: Cody Bellinger $4800 FD|$5800 DK, Max Muncy $3900 FD|$5100 DK, David Freese ($2800 FD|$4400 DK, A.J. Pollock $3300 FD|$3800 DK, and Joc Pederson $2800 FD|$4600 DK).

Boston Red Sox Stack

***Weather is a legitimate concern here, possible PPD. Pitching and bats risky. If you want to play a Boston stack, I would reserve it for GPP’s and monitor the weather.

vs. RHP Aaron Sanchez (TOR): 6.90 Runs

The Red Sox get a lofty 6.90 implied run total in this matchup against Aaron Sanchez (surprising, I know) and this is one we cannot ignore. I know we have some weather concerns here, so tune in with our weather man Mark for updates as we get closer to lock. Aaron Sanchez carries an average 6.22 ERA, 5.50 FIP, and 5.62 SIERA. Sanchez is allowing batters to slash to a .362 wOBA, .456 SLG, and .388 OBP across 97 innings. He has allowed 67 earned runs in that span. Aaron Sanchez is a ground ball pitcher, averaging a 48% ground ball rate. Although he doesn’t give up many home runs, he has a .330 BABIP and LOB of 66%. The Red Sox are slashing to a .374 wOBA, .252 ISO, and 131 WRC+ over the last two weeks to right handed pitching. These are the best hitting numbers on the slate by a long shot.

Preferred Stack: Rafael Devers ($4200 FD|$5700 DK), Xander Bogaerts ($4400 FD|$5600 DK), Andrew Benintendi ($3400 FD|$4500 DK), and Mookie Betts ($4300 FD|$5400 DK).

Arizona Diamondbacks

vs. RHP Jesse Chavez (TEX): 5.45 Runs

We have Jesse Chavez taking on the Diamondbacks in Coors South this evening. Chavez carries a 3.84 ERA, 4.51 FIP, and 4.24 SIERA into tonight’s matchup. He is a reverse splits pitcher, allowing righties to slash .353 wOBA, .519 SLG, and .329 OBP. He has fallen off recently after having a somewhat successful start to the year. I expect him to stay in this rough patch and we will see his ERA line up with close to his FIP as the season comes to a close. Arizona batters are slashing to a .300 wOBA, .161 ISO, and 82 WRC+ in recent weeks. These are by no means the averages I look for when picking my stacks, but I feel with the ballpark upgrade to the bats and Chavez’s recent struggles we could end up with a nice lower owned Diamondbacks stack.

Preferred Plays: Ketel Marte ($3700 FD|$5200 DK), Eduardo Escobar ($3700 FD|$5200 DK), Christian Walker ($3000 FD|$4700 DK), Adam Jones ($2900 FD|$4200 DK), and Jarrod Dyson ($2700 FD|$4800 DK).

Honorable Mention

Cleveland Indians

vs. RHP Spencer Turnbull (DET): 5.78 Runs

Preferred Plays: Francisco Lindor ($4000 FD|$5000 DK), Carlos Santana ($4200 FD|$5300 DK), Jason Kipnis ($2900 FD|$3600 DK), Jose Ramirez ($3600 FD|$4400 DK). Jakob Bauers for value ($2900 FD|$3600 DK). Mike Freeman ($2100 FD|$3700 DK and Tyler Naquin ($2800 FD|$4000 DK) are also good value plays.

Washington Nationals

vs. RHP Aaron Brooks (40-50 pitches) & RHP Gabriel Ynoa (BAL)

**Another trouble spot with weather otherwise I’d have them as the top stack. I think the game starts on time, but a good chance we do not get a full 9 innings.

Preferred Plays: Juan Soto ($4000 FD|$5500 DK), Howie Kendrick ($2600 FD|$4900 DK), Anthony Rendon ($4300 FD|$5500 DK), Victor Robles ($3400 FD|$4400), and Brian Dozier ($2600 FD|$3900 DK).


  1. Chris Paddack (R) (SDP): 3.15 Runs
  2. Mike Clevinger (R) (CLE): 3.27 Runs
  3. Danny Duffy (L) (KCR): 5.01 Runs

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For those not familiar, my name is Dan Wehr and I am a new author here at WinDailyDFS. This article will provide a game by game DFS breakdown for the six game main slate on Draftkings and FanDuel, and I also provide some preferred stacks.

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies

Over/Under: 12.5

Implied Run TotalLAD: 6.83 Runs

Implied Run Total COL: 5.67 Runs

Weather Concerns: N/A

Los Angeles DodgersClayton Kershaw (LHP) takes the mound in Colorado tonight. He is sporting a 2.85 ERA, 3.51 FIP, and 3.76 SIERA on the season. Kershaw has identical splits, carrying a .282 wOBA, .269 OBP, and .278 BABIP to both sides. Dodgers batters are slashing .338 wOBA, .209 ISO, and .298 BABIP over the last two weeks. They are hitting close to their season averages.

Preferred DFS Plays Max Muncy $4400 FD|$5400 DK. Cody Bellinger $5100 FD|$5800 DK. Matt Beaty $2800 FD| $3700 DK. Alex Verdugo $3800 FD |$4700 DK.

Colorado RockiesJon Gray (RHP) takes the mound tonight at home. He carries a 4.18 ERA, 4.20 FIP, and 4.19 SIERA on the year. Gray has identical splits, carrying a .338 wOBA, .339 OBP, and .439 SLG to both sides. Rockies batters are slashing .368 wOBA, .187 ISO, and .497 SLG over the last two weeks. They are hitting close to their season averages.

Preferred DFS Plays: Ian Desmond $2900 FD | $4600 DK. Charlie Blackmon $4400 FD | $5500 DK. Nolan Arenado $4100 FD | $5000 DK. Greg Hampson $2700 FD | $3200 DK.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers

Over/Under: 9.5

Implied Run TotalPIT: 3.80 Runs

Implied Run TotalMIL: 5.70 Runs

Weather Concerns: Dome

Pittsburgh PiratesJordan Lyles (RHP) on the mound tonight in Milwaukee. Lyles is sporting a 3.64 ERA, 3.67 FIP, and 4.74 SIERA on the season. He has true splits, carrying a .367 wOBA, .500 SLG, and .367 OBP to left handed batters. He has been particularly bad on the road against lefties. Pirates batters are slashing to a respectable .376 wOBA, .226 ISO, and .532 SLG against right handed batters over the last few weeks.

Preferred DFS PlaysCorey Dickerson $3100 FD | $4300 DK. Josh Bell $4500 FD | $5300 DK. Bryan Reynolds $3300 FD | $4500 DK. Colin Moran $2500 FD | $3900 DK. Elias Diaz $2500 FD | $3300 DK.

Milwaukee BrewersBrandon Woodruff (RHP) on the mound for the Brewers tonight. He has a 4.01 ERA, 3.07 FIP, and 3.53 SIERA on the season. Woodruff has true splits, carrying a .335 wOBA, .441 SLG, and .341 OBP against left handed batters this season. Brewers batters are currently slashing to a .315 wOBA, .170 ISO, and have a .402 SLG. They are hitting slightly below their season average over the last two weeks. Jordan Lyles is awful on the road vs. lefties and Milwaukee bats have been a bit pedestrian lately. I think the Brewers crack things open tonight and score some runs.

Preferred DFS Plays: Mike Moustakas $3700 FD | $4700 DK. Yasmani Grandal $3300 FD | $4400 DK. Christian Yelich $4500 FD | $5700 DK. Eric Thames $2700 FD | $4200 DK

Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros

Over/Under: 9.5

Implied Run TotalSEA: 3.20 Runs

Implied Run TotalHOU: 6.30 Runs

Weather Concerns: Dome

Seattle Mariners Yusei Kikuchi (LHP) on the mound in Houston. He carries a 5.11 ERA, 5.55 FIP, and 5.10 SIERA on the season. Kikuchi has fairly similar splits and struggles quite a bit on the road. Kikuchi carries a .361 wOBA, .505 SLG, and .354 OBP against right handed batters. Everyone is waiting for the Astros to really break out again and I think this is a good spot for them to do so. Seattle batters are slashing to a .333 wOBA, .173 ISO, and .441 SLG over the last few weeks. They are hitting close to their season average.

Preferred DFS PlaysDaniel Vogelbach $3700 FD | $4000 DK. J.P. Crawford $3000 FD | $4200 DK.

Houston Astros Justin Verlander (RHP) on the mound tonight at home. He carries a 2.67 ERA, 3.77 FIP, and 3.17 SIERA on the season. Verlander has a flyball rate of 46%, hard contact rate of 39%, and 1.65 HR/9. He has identical splits, carrying a .232 wOBA, .343 SLG, and 1.75 BABIP. Houston batters are hitting well above their season averages recently with a .448 wOBA, .337 ISO, and .647 SLG.

Preferred DFS Plays: Alex Bregman $4200 FD | $5100 DK. Jose Altuve $4000 | $4100 DK. Tyler White $2200 FD | $3200 DK. Jake Marisnick $2200 FD | $4000 DK. George Springer $4400 FD | $5400 DK.

Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants

Over/Under: 7.5

Implied Run Total – ARI: 4.20

Implied Run Total – SFG: 3.30

Weather Concerns: N/A

Arizona DiamondbacksZack Greinke (RHP) takes the mound in San Francisco tonight. He is sporting a 2.91 ERA, 3.45 FIP, and 3.96 SIERA on the season. Greinke has identical splits, allowing a .260 wOBA, .249 OBP, and .252 BABIP to both sides. Greinke gets a ballpark boost and has the clear advantage against a weak SFG offense. Arizona batters are slashing to a .272 wOBA, .127 ISO, and .349 SLG over the last few weeks. They are hitting well below their season averages.

Preferred DFS PlaysKetel Marte $4100 FD | $5200 DK. Eduardo Escobar $4200 FD | $4800 DK. Christian Walker $3000 FD | $4000 DK.

San Francisco GiantsDrew Pomeranz (LHP) is on the mound at home. He carries a 7.09 ERA, 6.01 FIP, and 4.68 SIERA on the year. Pomeranz has true splits as right handed batters are slashing to a .412 wOBA, .594 SLG, and .396 OBP against him this season. San Francisco batters are slashing to a .307 wOBA, .178 ISO, and .418 SLG over the last few weeks. They are hitting above their season averages.

Preferred DFS Plays – N/A

Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels

Over/Under: 9.5

Implied Run TotalOAK: 4.40 Runs

Implied Run TotalLAA: 5.10 Runs

Weather Concerns: N/A

Oakland AthleticsBrett Anderson (LHP) is on the mound in Anaheim tonight. Anderson has a 4.26 ERA, 5.15 FIP, and 5.44 SIERA on the season. He is a ground ball pitcher with a hefty 52% GB rate. Anderson carries a .295 wOBA .383 SLG, and .304 OBP against him on the road. Oakland batters are slashing to a .371 wOBA, .273 ISO, and .580 SLG to left handed pitching over the last few weeks.

Preferred DFS PlaysKhris Davis $3400 FD | $3600 DK. Marcus Semien $3400 FD | $4100 DK. Ramon Laureano $3300 FD | $3900 DK. Mark Canha $2800 FD | $3600 DK. Matt Chapman $3700 FD | $4200 DK.

Los Angeles AngelsTyler Skaggs (LHP) is on the mound for the Angels this evening. He carries a 4.30 ERA, 4.25 FIP, and 4.40 SIERA on the year. Skaggs tends to be hot and cold and the last time he faced the A’s he ended up getting hit around a bit. The A’s lineup is full of right handed power and Skaggs is carrying a .310 wOBA, .407 SLG, and 318 OBP to them on the year. Angels batters are slashing .to a 266 wOBA, .073 ISO, and .305 SLG over the last two weeks, They are hitting well below their season averages over the last two weeks.

Preferred DFS Plays: Mike Trout $4700 FD | $5600 DK. Shohei Ohtani $4100 FD | $5100 DK. Albert Pujols $3000 FD | $3900 DK. Kole Calhoun $3200 FD | $4300 DK.

St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres

Over/Under: 8

Implied Run TotalSTL: 3.71 Runs

Implied Run Total SDP: 4.29 Runs

Weather Concerns: N/A

St. Louis CardinalsDakota Hudson (RHP) takes the mound in San Diego. He has a 3.36 ERA, 4.67 FIP, and 4.72 SIERA on the season. Hudson struggles mightily against left handed batters, carrying a 386 wOBA, .532 SLG, and .396 OBP so far this season. He has a massive ground ball rate of 62% and an extremely low fly ball rate of 17%. Cardinals batters are slashing .283 wOBA, .123 wOBA, and 74 WRC+. They have struggled all season with right handed pitching.

Preferred DFS PlaysDakota Hudson $8400 FD | $6900 DK.

San Diego Padres Chris Paddack (RHP) is on the mound at home this evening. He has a 3.18 ERA, 3.99 FIP, and 3.87 SIERA this season. Paddack has a 45% hard contact rate and 40% fly ball rate. He has identical splits, carrying a .261 wOBA, .370 SLG, and .257 OBP against both sides this season. The Cardinals have struggled a ton against righties as of late and Paddack certainly has the arm talent to get the QS and win against this porous Cardinals lineup. The only concern I have is Paddack is not an innings eater, averaging four or five IP per game. Padres batters are slashing to a .358 wOBA, .214 ISO, and .493 SLG against right handed pitching over the last two weeks. They are hitting well above their season averages.

Preferred DFS Plays – Chris Paddack $8100 FD | $8300 DK. Fernando Tatis Jr. $4000 FD | $5500 DK. Manny Machado $3900 FD | $4900 DK. Franmil Reyes $2800 FD | $4100 DK.

Dwehrj08’s Favorite DFS Plays

Top Pitchers

  1. Chris Paddack (Not an innings eater so tread carefully)
  2. Dakota Hudson
  3. Zack Greinke

Top Stacks

  1. Houston Astros
  2. Milwaukee Brewers
  3. Arizona Diamondbacks
  4. For good measure I will most definitely have exposure to Coors, as should you. This game isn’t my top priority but the implied run total here just simply cannot be ignored.

Home Run Call of Day: Matt Olson (OAK)

The Winning Edge
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Chris Paddack @ San Francisco Giants

DraftKings $10,600, FanDuel $9,300

Paddack has had a few shaky starts recently, but I see him righting the ship here. He really excels at getting right-handers to strike out, so it makes me even want to play him more. Against right-handed bats he holds a 12 K/9 and a .171 BAA. The only bat I’m ever worried about in this lineup is Brandon Belt, but even then I don’t care. Paddack has shown the insane upside he holds and he is my lock and load SP1.

Patrick Corbin @ Chicago White Sox

DraftKings $10,300, FanDuel $10,300

I don’t know what has been wrong with Corbin, but I’ll gladly go back to him in this matchup. The White Sox, as we all know, strike out with the best of them. As Corbin doesn’t have amazing strikeout numbers against right-handed bats this season, we all know his potential. Against right-handed bats he has a 8.7 K/9 and a 13.97 K/9 to left handed bats. The upside and potential is there, if he returns to form in this outing he could break the slate.

Dakota Hudson @ Miami Marlins

DraftKings $6,200, FanDuel $8,000

As a pitcher who struggles a ton against left-handed bats, he handles right-handed bats pretty well. Against right-handed bats on the road he holds a .136 BAA and a 6.75 K/9. I know this isn’t a major upside play, but it’s a good spot to get contrarian and to get to those Coors bats. This is my favorite “spend down” of the day. (DraftKings Only as SP2.)

Spencer Turnbull @ Kansas City Royals

DraftKings $8,600, FanDuel $7,800

For one, Turnbull has shut down the Royals this year. He has only allowed three earned runs in 13 innings with 17 strikeouts. This is the upside and security I want in my cash games. On the road this season, Turnbull is pitching to a 2.86 ERA with a 9.47 K/9 to right-handed bats. The Royals aren’t the worst team in the league in terms of strikeouts, but we have seen Turnbull can dig them out of this lineup.

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Again, we have a day with no major weather issues. CLE, DET and CHC all have minor weather issues. Very warm in TEX so the ball should carry well.

Upper Tier Arms

Stephen Strasburg, Nationals at Padres ($11,500 FD, $10,600 DK): We just saw what Mad Max did to the Padres on Saturday night. We can use the same stats to recommend Strasburg this afternoon. This is the fifth time in that he will pitch in his hometown of San Diego. He is 3-1 with a 3.12 ERA in his previous four starts at Petco Park. Strasburg’s high floor makes him cash safe on both sites.

Walker Buehler, Dodgers at Giants ($11,300 FD, $10,200 DK): A very nice price on DK, making him cash worthy on that site, while on FD he is more of a GPP option. Buehler pitches in the best park for pitchers against a weak lineup. He is coming off his best performance of the season when his fastball was effective, he mixed his pitches well, and he racked up 11 strikeouts in a victory against the D-backs.

Middle Tier Arms

Chris Paddack, Nationals at Padres ($9,000 FD, $10,000 DK): Paddack is a tremendous pitcher at home. In 36 innings pitched at home, he has only given up 23 hits and 10 earned runs. He has struck out 43 batters in that span with only four walks. His batting average against is only .177. Especially on FD with that price, he is cash worthy. There is some debate on whether he will pitch or not so make sure you check on that.

Jake Odorizzi, Twins at Tigers ($9,800 FD, $10,900 DK): Really a cash game consideration with that discount on FD, he is the AL ERA leader at 1.96. He faces a weak opponent in Detroit. He has held opponents scoreless in six of his last seven starts, dating back to April 29 and while no earned runs is a lot to ask, pitching a great game is not.

Robbie Ray, Diamondbacks at Blue Jays ($8,800 FD, $10,600 DK): Another FD cash worthy pitcher, Ray lasted a season high seven innings in his last start against the Dodgers. He recorded a loss in that game after allowing three runs while striking out nine. With the Blue Jays not hitting the ball well, we can expect a similar outing.

Bargain Basement Arm

Reynaldo Lopez, White Sox at Royals ($6,000 FD, $4,600 DK): For a guy who struck out 14 batters in a start a little over a month ago, these prices are just too low. Use him and pay-up for any bats that you want.

Monkey Knife Fight Pick of the Day

Jake Odorizzi Over 6.5 Strikeouts: The AL ERA leader has struck out nine batters in consecutive starts. Seven should occur with relative ease against a team (the Tigers) with the third highest strikeout rate (26.2%) against righties.

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