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DFS Winning Edge for 6/29: Main Slate Breakdown

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For those not familiar, my name is Dan Wehr and I am a new author here at WinDailyDFS. This article will provide a game by game DFS breakdown for the six game main slate on Draftkings and FanDuel, and I also provide some preferred stacks.

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies

Over/Under: 12.5

Implied Run TotalLAD: 6.83 Runs

Implied Run Total COL: 5.67 Runs

Weather Concerns: N/A

Los Angeles DodgersClayton Kershaw (LHP) takes the mound in Colorado tonight. He is sporting a 2.85 ERA, 3.51 FIP, and 3.76 SIERA on the season. Kershaw has identical splits, carrying a .282 wOBA, .269 OBP, and .278 BABIP to both sides. Dodgers batters are slashing .338 wOBA, .209 ISO, and .298 BABIP over the last two weeks. They are hitting close to their season averages.

Preferred DFS Plays Max Muncy $4400 FD|$5400 DK. Cody Bellinger $5100 FD|$5800 DK. Matt Beaty $2800 FD| $3700 DK. Alex Verdugo $3800 FD |$4700 DK.

Colorado RockiesJon Gray (RHP) takes the mound tonight at home. He carries a 4.18 ERA, 4.20 FIP, and 4.19 SIERA on the year. Gray has identical splits, carrying a .338 wOBA, .339 OBP, and .439 SLG to both sides. Rockies batters are slashing .368 wOBA, .187 ISO, and .497 SLG over the last two weeks. They are hitting close to their season averages.

Preferred DFS Plays: Ian Desmond $2900 FD | $4600 DK. Charlie Blackmon $4400 FD | $5500 DK. Nolan Arenado $4100 FD | $5000 DK. Greg Hampson $2700 FD | $3200 DK.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers

Over/Under: 9.5

Implied Run TotalPIT: 3.80 Runs

Implied Run TotalMIL: 5.70 Runs

Weather Concerns: Dome

Pittsburgh PiratesJordan Lyles (RHP) on the mound tonight in Milwaukee. Lyles is sporting a 3.64 ERA, 3.67 FIP, and 4.74 SIERA on the season. He has true splits, carrying a .367 wOBA, .500 SLG, and .367 OBP to left handed batters. He has been particularly bad on the road against lefties. Pirates batters are slashing to a respectable .376 wOBA, .226 ISO, and .532 SLG against right handed batters over the last few weeks.

Preferred DFS PlaysCorey Dickerson $3100 FD | $4300 DK. Josh Bell $4500 FD | $5300 DK. Bryan Reynolds $3300 FD | $4500 DK. Colin Moran $2500 FD | $3900 DK. Elias Diaz $2500 FD | $3300 DK.

Milwaukee BrewersBrandon Woodruff (RHP) on the mound for the Brewers tonight. He has a 4.01 ERA, 3.07 FIP, and 3.53 SIERA on the season. Woodruff has true splits, carrying a .335 wOBA, .441 SLG, and .341 OBP against left handed batters this season. Brewers batters are currently slashing to a .315 wOBA, .170 ISO, and have a .402 SLG. They are hitting slightly below their season average over the last two weeks. Jordan Lyles is awful on the road vs. lefties and Milwaukee bats have been a bit pedestrian lately. I think the Brewers crack things open tonight and score some runs.

Preferred DFS Plays: Mike Moustakas $3700 FD | $4700 DK. Yasmani Grandal $3300 FD | $4400 DK. Christian Yelich $4500 FD | $5700 DK. Eric Thames $2700 FD | $4200 DK

Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros

Over/Under: 9.5

Implied Run TotalSEA: 3.20 Runs

Implied Run TotalHOU: 6.30 Runs

Weather Concerns: Dome

Seattle Mariners Yusei Kikuchi (LHP) on the mound in Houston. He carries a 5.11 ERA, 5.55 FIP, and 5.10 SIERA on the season. Kikuchi has fairly similar splits and struggles quite a bit on the road. Kikuchi carries a .361 wOBA, .505 SLG, and .354 OBP against right handed batters. Everyone is waiting for the Astros to really break out again and I think this is a good spot for them to do so. Seattle batters are slashing to a .333 wOBA, .173 ISO, and .441 SLG over the last few weeks. They are hitting close to their season average.

Preferred DFS PlaysDaniel Vogelbach $3700 FD | $4000 DK. J.P. Crawford $3000 FD | $4200 DK.

Houston Astros Justin Verlander (RHP) on the mound tonight at home. He carries a 2.67 ERA, 3.77 FIP, and 3.17 SIERA on the season. Verlander has a flyball rate of 46%, hard contact rate of 39%, and 1.65 HR/9. He has identical splits, carrying a .232 wOBA, .343 SLG, and 1.75 BABIP. Houston batters are hitting well above their season averages recently with a .448 wOBA, .337 ISO, and .647 SLG.

Preferred DFS Plays: Alex Bregman $4200 FD | $5100 DK. Jose Altuve $4000 | $4100 DK. Tyler White $2200 FD | $3200 DK. Jake Marisnick $2200 FD | $4000 DK. George Springer $4400 FD | $5400 DK.

Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants

Over/Under: 7.5

Implied Run Total – ARI: 4.20

Implied Run Total – SFG: 3.30

Weather Concerns: N/A

Arizona DiamondbacksZack Greinke (RHP) takes the mound in San Francisco tonight. He is sporting a 2.91 ERA, 3.45 FIP, and 3.96 SIERA on the season. Greinke has identical splits, allowing a .260 wOBA, .249 OBP, and .252 BABIP to both sides. Greinke gets a ballpark boost and has the clear advantage against a weak SFG offense. Arizona batters are slashing to a .272 wOBA, .127 ISO, and .349 SLG over the last few weeks. They are hitting well below their season averages.

Preferred DFS PlaysKetel Marte $4100 FD | $5200 DK. Eduardo Escobar $4200 FD | $4800 DK. Christian Walker $3000 FD | $4000 DK.

San Francisco GiantsDrew Pomeranz (LHP) is on the mound at home. He carries a 7.09 ERA, 6.01 FIP, and 4.68 SIERA on the year. Pomeranz has true splits as right handed batters are slashing to a .412 wOBA, .594 SLG, and .396 OBP against him this season. San Francisco batters are slashing to a .307 wOBA, .178 ISO, and .418 SLG over the last few weeks. They are hitting above their season averages.

Preferred DFS Plays – N/A

Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels

Over/Under: 9.5

Implied Run TotalOAK: 4.40 Runs

Implied Run TotalLAA: 5.10 Runs

Weather Concerns: N/A

Oakland AthleticsBrett Anderson (LHP) is on the mound in Anaheim tonight. Anderson has a 4.26 ERA, 5.15 FIP, and 5.44 SIERA on the season. He is a ground ball pitcher with a hefty 52% GB rate. Anderson carries a .295 wOBA .383 SLG, and .304 OBP against him on the road. Oakland batters are slashing to a .371 wOBA, .273 ISO, and .580 SLG to left handed pitching over the last few weeks.

Preferred DFS PlaysKhris Davis $3400 FD | $3600 DK. Marcus Semien $3400 FD | $4100 DK. Ramon Laureano $3300 FD | $3900 DK. Mark Canha $2800 FD | $3600 DK. Matt Chapman $3700 FD | $4200 DK.

Los Angeles AngelsTyler Skaggs (LHP) is on the mound for the Angels this evening. He carries a 4.30 ERA, 4.25 FIP, and 4.40 SIERA on the year. Skaggs tends to be hot and cold and the last time he faced the A’s he ended up getting hit around a bit. The A’s lineup is full of right handed power and Skaggs is carrying a .310 wOBA, .407 SLG, and 318 OBP to them on the year. Angels batters are slashing .to a 266 wOBA, .073 ISO, and .305 SLG over the last two weeks, They are hitting well below their season averages over the last two weeks.

Preferred DFS Plays: Mike Trout $4700 FD | $5600 DK. Shohei Ohtani $4100 FD | $5100 DK. Albert Pujols $3000 FD | $3900 DK. Kole Calhoun $3200 FD | $4300 DK.

St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres

Over/Under: 8

Implied Run TotalSTL: 3.71 Runs

Implied Run Total SDP: 4.29 Runs

Weather Concerns: N/A

St. Louis CardinalsDakota Hudson (RHP) takes the mound in San Diego. He has a 3.36 ERA, 4.67 FIP, and 4.72 SIERA on the season. Hudson struggles mightily against left handed batters, carrying a 386 wOBA, .532 SLG, and .396 OBP so far this season. He has a massive ground ball rate of 62% and an extremely low fly ball rate of 17%. Cardinals batters are slashing .283 wOBA, .123 wOBA, and 74 WRC+. They have struggled all season with right handed pitching.

Preferred DFS PlaysDakota Hudson $8400 FD | $6900 DK.

San Diego Padres Chris Paddack (RHP) is on the mound at home this evening. He has a 3.18 ERA, 3.99 FIP, and 3.87 SIERA this season. Paddack has a 45% hard contact rate and 40% fly ball rate. He has identical splits, carrying a .261 wOBA, .370 SLG, and .257 OBP against both sides this season. The Cardinals have struggled a ton against righties as of late and Paddack certainly has the arm talent to get the QS and win against this porous Cardinals lineup. The only concern I have is Paddack is not an innings eater, averaging four or five IP per game. Padres batters are slashing to a .358 wOBA, .214 ISO, and .493 SLG against right handed pitching over the last two weeks. They are hitting well above their season averages.

Preferred DFS Plays – Chris Paddack $8100 FD | $8300 DK. Fernando Tatis Jr. $4000 FD | $5500 DK. Manny Machado $3900 FD | $4900 DK. Franmil Reyes $2800 FD | $4100 DK.

Dwehrj08’s Favorite DFS Plays

Top Pitchers

  1. Chris Paddack (Not an innings eater so tread carefully)
  2. Dakota Hudson
  3. Zack Greinke

Top Stacks

  1. Houston Astros
  2. Milwaukee Brewers
  3. Arizona Diamondbacks
  4. For good measure I will most definitely have exposure to Coors, as should you. This game isn’t my top priority but the implied run total here just simply cannot be ignored.

Home Run Call of Day: Matt Olson (OAK)

The Winning Edge

Dan Wehr is a real money DFS player with over four years of experience. He has several large field GPP take-downs in NFL, MLB, and NBA. His passion for DFS stems from his love affair with his home town sports teams, the Baltimore Orioles and Baltimore Ravens.

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