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chicago white sox

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: April 2, 2021

Jared Levitt 3 years ago

written by Jared Levitt

Welcome to round 2 of the 2021 MLB season. I’m Jared and I’ll be filling in for Brian today. Some pretty big shoes to fill! My goal today will be to provide you with enough information to make solid choices. I won’t necessarily provide you the most popular plays, but the plays that will hopefully differentiate your lineups from the rest of the field and provide you enough success to get a solid ROI. Let’s breakdown some MLB DFS!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

We have an unusually small slate for a Friday with only 6 games on the main slate. This is what happens when Opening Day is on a Thursday. There’s an earlier matchup between the Red Sox and O’s but the focus of my write-up will be the Main Slate on Draftkings. Tonight we have 2 aces making their debuts with their new teams; Trevor Bauer ($10.5k) and Blake Snell ($9.7k). We have the Dodgers playing in Coors against a pitcher that struggled mightily in 2020, with an implied total (7.3) to show for it. We have Wilmer Flores ($3.7k) against a lefty. And finally, we have a game between 2 teams that combined for 1 run yesterday

Now that we have that out of the way, let’s dig in to today’s slate.

MLB DFS Picks – Pitchers

Today we have 2 aces going in Bauer and Snell, both making their debuts for their new teams. I have a hard time paying $10.5k for Bauer today with him pitching in Coors Field. As a petty Mets fan, I hope he gets shelled today.

My SP1 today will be Snell. You’re getting an $800 savings from Bauer and he’s also pitching in a much more pitcher-friendly environment. Although you wouldn’t know it if you looked at the box score from beautiful San Diego yesterday. In a Covid shortened season last year, Snell k’d more than 11 per 9 and had a 15% swinging-strike rate. One of the things I love about Snell is his ability to get batters to chase pitches out of the zone. Last season he had a chase rate of over 35%. Although Arizona managed to knock out Darvish early yesterday, I think they’ll be over-matched today against Snell. I’m locking him in as my SP1.

Where we see more options today is with your SP2. My first lean will be Pablo Lopez ($7k). The Rays are at an automatic disadvantage as they lose the DH. The Rays will probably trot out 4 lefties, but 3 of the 4 have K rates over 20% against righties. Lopez last season k’d more than 9 per 9. Last season he was also able to limit hard contact with a hard hit rate of less than 29%. Finally, he had a ground ball rate of 28.6% which will certainly help limit any damage the Rays can do.

My other lean for SP2 tonight is Jesus Luzardo ($7.9k). The Astros are a tough lineup so this will be no easy task, but Luzardo is one of the more talented pitchers going tonight and Houston losing Springer helps as well. Last night’s game was much closer than the final score shows. The A’s bullpen gave up a ton of late-inning damage. In his young career, Luzardo has been able to k both righties and lefties at a rate of greater than 24%. Like Lopez, Luzardo has the ability to keep the ball on the ground, with a 45% ground ball rate in 2020.

My locks today will be Snell and Lopez.

MLB DFS Picks – Top Stacks

Let’s get the obvious out of the way. The Dodgers will be a popular place to go tonight. They’re facing off against Antonio Senzatela who was just not very good last year. He pitched to a 4.81 xFIP, gave up a ton of hard contact (35.4%), and didn’t miss many bats (8.1% swinging strike %). The stars are aligned for the Dodgers to put up a very crooked number.

My favorite stack tonight is the White Sox. They’re facing off against Andrew Heaney who pitched to a 4.15 xFIP last year. Heaney also gave up a ton of hard contact with a hard-hit rate of nearly 37%. I’m going to focus on 1-3. Tim Anderson ($5.5k), Luis Robert ($5.3k), and Jose Abreu ($5.8k). It’s an expensive stack, but a very high ceiling stack. Anderson has a .388 wOBA against lefties and Abreu has a .404. The White Sox has an implied total of only 4.09. I think they crush that number today.

My final recommendation of the day is the Mariners. With this lineup, I may choose to just pluck a few random batters as they are dirt cheap. They’re facing off against Johnny Cueto who is about 5 years past his prime. Cueto struggled last year. He pitched to a 4.78 xFIP. He barely misses any bats anymore as seen by his 8.3% swinging strike last year. Seattle has some cheap bats in the meat of their lineup that will help you pay for some Dodger or White Sox bats. One bat I’ll be focused on here is Mitch Haniger ($3.1k) leading off. He’s returning from a pretty nasty testicle injury in 2019. Evan White ($2.7k) is another bat I’ll be focused on if you choose to skip over Abreu. He’s close to min priced and should be batting clean up.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

Tonight’s slate, although small, has the makings of a fun slate. A powerful lineup in Coors, 2 aces making their debuts for their new teams, Wilmer Flores against a lefty. You will also have the opportunity to use 1 ace and 1 SP2, or 2 SP2’s. I’ll be using Snellzilla and Lopez!

Weather does not look to be a concern anywhere tonight.

Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this MLB DFS season with some big wins!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

3 years ago 0 comment

Collector’s Corner: 2021 MLB Breakouts – AL Hitter Trading Cards

jason mezrahi 3 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

This week’s Collector’s Corner takes an early look at some possible 2021 breakouts in the AL – and the trading cards to collect from this bunch.

By now, everyone knows to collect Luis Robert trading cards, but there’s a huge crop of baseball prospects whose trading cards could see a huge bump in 2021 and beyond if they have breakout seasons. Here are nine such players in the AL you should be stocking in your collection.

NOTE: I’m using my Cash/GPP/Punt system again since it translates well to the DFS/trading card investment comparison.

Breakout Trading Cards – Cash

Wander Franco, TB SS

I shouldn’t have to say much about Franco – who’s now the top prospect in baseball – but since he hasn’t played since 2019, he’s flying a bit under the radar.

Franco does everything well and is projected for about 90 games at the major league level in 2021 – a call-up that will immediately cause a bump in his rookie trading cards. You can buy 2019 1st Bowman #BP100 PSA GEM MINT 10 rookies for $100-125 apiece, and parallels and autos – while expensive – remain excellent long-term investments. I’m happy to have a sharp 2020 Bowman Chrome Sapphire #BCP-1 (second year) in my collection, but I’m working on adding some of his rookies.

He’s not slated for a spot in the Rays lineup on day one of the 2021 season, but once he’s here he may be here to stay.

It’s his second year, but I love the look of this card. The Bowman Chrome Sapphire is one of my favorite products.

Ryan Mountcastle, BAL OF

Mountcastle had an auspicious 2020 debut for the Birds, and he did an excellent radio interview where he talks about the transition to the majors and how he fared in his rookie season (“I held my own”). The multi-positional fielder – who played mostly outfield for Baltimore – posted a solid .333/.386/.492 slash line with five homers and a 141 wRC+ in 35 games.

It’s a small smaple, for sure, but I love guys who can play all over the diamond and remain entrenched in the everyday lineup, and Mountcastle is one of those guys. THE BAT, ZIPS and Steamer projections for 2021 all have him hitting over 20 homers with a wRC+ north of 100.

You can pick up graded 2015 rookies for a reasonable price, and he’s a hitter who’ll be smack dab in the middle of a potent group of young hitters, so his 2021 production could well exceed expectations.

Bobby Dalbec, BOS 1B/3B

This guy can mash. He hit eight homers in just 92 ABs for the Red Sox in his 2020 debut, and as a corner infielder he should consistently find a way into the Boston lineup. The 42.4% K rate is a bit disconcerting, but as far as raw power metrics goes, his .338 ISO stands out as an obscene number that points to 40+ HR upside for the 2016 draft pick.

2021 projections from the aforementioned sources are unanimous in assuming 25+ HRs for the upcoming season, and his path to 30+ is only clouded by how often he can make things happen and avoid a prolonged slump at the dish.

A natural third baseman, his 2016 Bowman Chrome Draft rookie trading cards are still dirt cheap, and he’s a solid investment in a huge market city – even if he’s a guy who strikes out almost 200 times in a 15-game season.

This PSA 10 Dalbec in a rare blue refractor parallel auto can be had for less than $1K — a price that could double or triple in value if he has a monster season in Boston.

Breakout Trading Cards – GPP

Andrew Vaughn, CWS 1B

With Robert off the list and getting regular MLB at-bats, Vaughn is now the No. 1 prospect in the White Sox system, and while he’s not expected to start the 2021 season in the majors, he’s just 22 years old slated for a mid-season arrival.

There’s not a clear path to regular playing time in the field just yet, but Vaughn could become the White Sox DH for a large chunk of the 2021 season, which could be a difficult adjustment for someone used to playing the field.

Still – he was so good in big league campo after he was drafted in 2019 that he was almost brought up to the majors in 2020. While his 2019 trading cards are pretty hot, there’s still plenty of room for growth. I really hate the 2019 Bowman design, but that’s his first Bowman card. I did manage to pull a couple of his 2020 Bowman Chrome Mega Box Mojo Refractors, but it’s important I cave and just grab some of his rookies.

My buddy Chris Gilmore over at Vintage Breaks owns this beautiful PSA 10 Vaughn rookie in the 2019 Bowman Sapphire Edition. He shows it off once in a while during his VB South breaks on YouTube.

Jo Adell, LAA OF

Adell didn’t find much success as a rookie outfielder for the Angels in 2020, but he’s still 21 years old and has the tools and talent to bounce back in his sophomore campaign.

He may start the 2021 season in the Triple-A, and there’s a few hard-hitting outfielders who could complicate his return to The Show – but all five-tool prospects are worth some additional development if it increases their confidence. Adell was clearly rushed into the bigs last year – probably because he’s a high-energy guy and they wanted him to play baseball instead of languishing in the pandemic-induced hiatus that may have stunted the growth of an untold number of MLB prospects.

As a result, his 2017 rookie trading cards – even PSA 10s – are very inexpensive for an organizational No. 1. He’s worth adding to your collection and seeing what happens in the coming season.

Sean Murphy, OAK C

Murphy has the offensive and defensive chops to be an All-Star major league catcher for a long time, and we’ve already seen a little of what he’s capable of at the big-league level.

A legitimately great defender at a premium position who looks a lot like a poor man’s Buster Posey when it comes to his pitch-framing and solid bat, Murphy’s 2020 debut was promising – with a .233/.364/.457 slash line, seven HRs and a 132 wRC+ in just 43 games. That stretch earned him 1.5 WAR and an everyday spot in the Athletics’ lineup.

His 2018 Bowman Chrome rookie trading cards are still a huge bargain, and you can pick up a PSA 9 MINT auto rookie for under $100.

Breakout Trading Cards – Punt

Nolan Jones, CLE 3B

Like Dalbec, Jones was drafted in 2016, and his rookie trading cards are also still very affordable. He’s also got immense raw power, as seen by the .213 ISO he posted in 2019 for the team’s Double-A affiliate. Unlike Dalbec, he hasn’t played since 2019 since he wasn’t called up to the bigs.

Jones is now the No. 1 prospect for Cleveland and may or may not get his shot in 2021 – but we’ve seen hitters like him arrive to fill a lineup gap and just never leave. There’s probably less long-term risk involved than Dalbec, but he may not provide immediate dividends.

Evan White, SEA 1B

Kyle Lewis made a huge splash in 2020 and Julio Rodriguez may be ready to arrive by late 2021 or early 2022, but White will be in the Mariners lineup on opening day. His 2017 Bowman Chrome rookie autos are selling (raw) for low prices and PSA 10s can be had in the $100-200 range.

White struggled at the dish as a rookie in 2020 (.176/.252/.346 slash with a 41.6% K rate and just eight dingers in 200+ ABs), but THE BAT and Steamer projections have him improving drastically in 2021; only ZIPS has him hitting fewer than 20 homers with an average under .230.

For $140, this could be a steal if White can make more contact and hit a few more homers in 2021.

Nick Solak, TEX 2B

Big Nick is slated to bate out of the No. 5 slot in the Rangers 2021 lineup, and while he’s on his third organization since being drafted by the Yankees in 2016, his 2020 Topps trading cards earned the RC logo and are very cheap, very good investments.

Solak had a great MLB debut in 2019, took a step back in 2020, and is poised for a big 2021. His rookies have him on the Yankees, so that may not hurt their ability to fetch big prices as much as say 2015 Bowman Draft Mike Yastrzemski rookies in Orioles gear. He’s not a great defender and isn’t going to be a guy who hits 30+ homers or steals 30 bases, but he’s got 20-15 upside and a solid enough bat to move the needle on his trading cards in the next couple of years.

3 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports

Win Daily Show Interview with Jeffrey Schwartz

Michael Rasile 4 years ago

written by Michael Rasile

Win Daily Show Interview with Jeffrey Schwartz

On today’s Win Daily Show Interview with Jeffrey Schwartz, he and Michael discuss Jeff’s career in sports talk radio.

Jeffrey got into the game back in the early ’70s and moved around a bit during his career. He spent some time as a producer, he spent time in sale, and in promotions allowing him to see all aspects of the business.

Along the way, Jeff owned a couple different companies where he consulted for other media companies in the space. Each time he was roped back into the corporate world.

In 1979, Jeff was working in Chicago and was apart of the team that created the infamous “Disco Demolition” when over 60,000 people showed up to Cominsky Park to burn disco albums. If you’ve never seen or heard anything about the “Disco Demolition” we highly suggest you listen. The promotion was a great one to get people to go to the White Sox game, but they we’re hoping for 20,000 attendees for this to be successful. In between the double-header, the promo was for rock and roll fans to bring their least favorite disco album to the park and it was going to get blown up. The ended up getting over 60,000 people to show up, they lit the field on fire, and the White Sox had to forfeit the second game.

Jeff was also apart of one of the first Sports Betting radio stations in the country where everything they spoke about centered around one of our favorite pastimes.

Listen to the Win Daily Show interview with Jeffrey Schwartz below.

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4 years ago 0 comment

MLB

9/22 DFS Hitting Picks & Stacks: Sox Appeal

5 years ago

written by

One more Sunday, and the 2019 MLB regular season is over. The 9/22 DFS Hitting Picks will swing for the fences today, knowing that chances to make the long green are running out.

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9/22 DFS Hitting Picks — Catcher

Tom Murphy, SEA at BAL

DK ($4,200), FD ($3,200)

Murphy’s breakout season has been built on the backs of woeful lefties, whom he has a .348/.402/.714 slash line against with 11 of his 18 homers coming against them. Having a moderate-priced catcher with a 47.8% fly ball rate should pay dividends in Camden Yards. Orioles rookie John Means gets the start and has somehow managed to post a 3.65 ERA despite a 50.6% fly ball rate. Bet on Murphy putting a boost to Means’ 9.7% HR/FB rate.

9/22 DFS Hitting Picks — First Baseman

Ryan Braun, MIL at PIT

DK ($4,500), FD ($3,200)

With six hits in his last three games, Braun is doing his part to keep the Brewers’ postseason hopes alive. Five of his last eight hits have been for extra bases, which has shot his OPS to 1.027 over the last week. His power numbers are similar to his 2018 production, but Braun’s .319 BABIP is 45 points higher, resulting in his career-high 45.3% hard contact rate having more impact.

9/22 DFS Hitting Picks — Second Baseman

Yoan Moncada, CWS at DET

DK ($4,400), FD ($3,800)

Moncada has spent much of 2019 torturing Tigers pitching. He’s hit .357/.404/.714 with four homers and 11 RBI off Detroit hurlers and comes into today with a .474/.492/754 slash line over the past two weeks. Moncada’s .403 BABIP hides the sins of a 7.6% walk rate and 27.5% strikeout rate. His line drive rate of 23.7% and improved ability to hit to all fields makes him a great play in the 9/22 DFS Hitting Picks lineup.

9/22 DFS Hitting Picks — Third Baseman

Miguel Sano, MIN vs. KC

DK ($5,200), FD ($4,000)

Despite hitting .244 against Kansas City pitching this season, Sano has made the Royals hurt when he does reach base. Six of his 10 hits off KC hurlers have been for extra bases, including four homers. Sano has a 1.019 OPS this month, driven mainly by a .394 OBP that should scare the hell out of all of us if this carries into 2020. To what should be shocking to no one, Sano manages soft contact just 9.3% of the time, so you’re going to be cheated when using him today.

9/22 DFS Hitting Picks — Shortstop

Carlos Correa, HOU vs. LAA

DK ($5,200), FD ($3,800)

Ponder the fact that Correa has 21 homers and 59 RBI in just 75 games. Prorate those numbers, and you’d be talking about a potential AL MVP candidate. He’s a monster at Minute Maid Park, sporting a 1.034 OPS with 11 of his 21 homers coming at home. His .282 Isolated Power and a 17-point improvement in BABIP only makes you wonder what he could have done had he stayed healthy this season. After a 28.8% hard contact rate in 2019, Correa comes into today with a 44.7% rate. Can’t make up for lost time, so indulge in Correa’s final home game of the regular season.

9/22 DFS Hitting Picks — Outfielder

Eloy Jimenez, CWS at DET

DK ($4,100), FD ($4,100)

He’s had four multi-hit games in his past six starts, continuing a blistering September that has seen Jimenez hit .358 with seven homers and 21 RBI. Jimenez has been surprisingly more effective outside of hitter-friendly Guaranteed Rate Field, producing an .875 OPS compared to .750 at home. His modest 33.6% fly ball rate is countered by a 27.1% HR/FB rate, all the more reason Tigers ace Matthew Boyd had better be on notice.

9/22 DFS Hitting Picks — Outfielder

Howie Kendrick, WAS at MIA

DK ($5,200), FD ($2,800)

He. Won’t. Stop. Hitting. Kendrick is 10-for-17 (.588) during a September run where he’s swinging it at a .432/.468/.659 clip. Unlike most of the aforementioned players in the 9/22 DFS Hitting Picks, Kendrick isn’t a serious threat to homer, but he will continue spraying the ball all over the field. He’s making hard contact at a 45.8% rate, which means a lot of his grounders (48.9%) are quickly finding their way past outfielders.

9/22 DFS Hitting Picks — Outfielder

Trey Mancini, BAL vs. SEA

DK ($4,100), FD ($5,100)

Mancini has a nine-game hitting streak and has scored at least one run in seven of his past 10 games. What has made his season interesting is that for a hitter whose hard contact rate is just about league-average (36.9%) who also doesn’t put the ball in the air as much as you’d think (31.7%), he’s pounding the daylights out of the ball. Mancini’s hitting more line drives (21.8%), but the hidden number just might be his .319 BABIP, which is nearly on par to his 2017 coming out party.

9/22 DFS Hitting Stacks

9/22 Hitting Stack of the Day: Houston Astros: As a team, the Astros hit .282/.360/.512 at Minute Maid Park, so why not load up one last time this season? Yordan Alvarez ($4,300 FD) and Alex Bregman ($5,400 DK) are anchors that can hold on to Jose Altuve ($4,200 FD) and Michael Brantley ($4,500 FD). It will cost to go all-in with an Astros stack, so be prepared to find a punt at pitcher.

9/22 Hitting Stack Runner-Up: Minnesota Twins: Start with Sano and build from there with Max Kepler ($4,700 FD), Mitch Garver ($5,500 FD) and Eddie Rosario ($4,900 FD). Make sure to add Ehire Adrianza ($3,400 FD) if the OBP machine is in the lineup.

9/22 Hitting Stack to Consider: Chicago White Sox: Moncada and Jimenez are the building blocks. Add Jose Abreu ($3,700 FD) to corner the market on the heart of the Chicago order. Yolmer Sanchez ($2,500 FD) is an interesting add considering he has five hits in 11 at-bats against Boyd.

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

9/20 DFS Hitting Picks & Stacks: Lambert to the Slaughter

5 years ago

written by

All but one game of today’s 15-game slate is under the lights, giving the 9/20 DFS Hitting Picks a buffet table of offense and a handful of stacks. With a somewhat light host of available money pitchers, load up on offense on the road to the long green.

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9/20 DFS Hitting Picks — Catcher

Roberto Perez, CLE vs. PHI

DK ($3,800), FD ($2,700)

Perez is smashing hurlers to the tune of .395/.447/.558 this month with a pair of homers and 12 RBI. His numbers haven’t changed much compared to last season…that is, with the notable exception of his Isolated Power, which sits at .216 after a woeful .095 last season. Perez has also boosted his BABIP to .286, a 29-point jump from 2018. Phillies hurler Drew Smyly has a 2.64 HR/9 rate that may suggest Perez being a part of an Indians stack.

9/20 DFS Hitting Picks — First Baseman

Trey Mancini, BAL vs. SEA

DK ($5,200), FD ($4,200)

There’s also OF eligibility with Mancini, who might be the hottest hitter in the game entering today’s play. He’s in the midst of a 15-for-32 (.469) run that includes four homers and 16 RBI over the past week. Mancini has a modest 31.8% fly ball rate, but counters that with a 24.3% HR/FB rate. A look at his numbers might suggest he’s scalding the dickens out of the ball, but Mancini’s hard contact rate (37.3%) is just above average. Facing the fading shell of Felix Hernandez should allow Mancini to continue his beatdown of AL pitching.

9/20 DFS Hitting Picks — Second Baseman

Yoan Moncada, CWS at DET

DK ($4,800), FD ($3,800)

Moncada has a .986 OPS in 34 at-bats against Tigers pitching this season with three homers among his 11 hits. He’ll also have 3B eligibility, making him a solid 9/20 DFS Hitting Picks candidate. The power (one homer) isn’t as prolific as it was earlier in the season, but his overall .228 Isolated Power is a mild indication of what’s capable of down the road. The number of soft hits has reduced, with harder contact rate (39.5%) and an uptick in line drives makes him a good play in a potential stack lineup against 1-11 Tigers hurler Jordan Zimmermann.

9/20 DFS Hitting Picks — Third Baseman

Miguel Sano, MIN vs. KC

DK ($4,900), FD ($3,600)

He’s something of a value at FanDuel as he gets a plumb matchup against Eric Skoglund, he of the 8.36 ERA in 14 innings. Sano has homered four times in his last seven games, driving in 10. A .265 batting average this month has been modest, but Sano has a .991 OPS driven in part by a surprising .379 OBP. It was once said Sano could hit 50 homers with a better OBP, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Although he fans 36% of the time, his 12.7% walk rate has bolstered his production. Well, that, and the 51.7% hard contact rate.

9/20 DFS Hitting Picks — Shortstop

Corey Seager, LAD vs. COL

DK ($3,400), FD ($4,300)

It looks like Seager is going into the postseason with momentum, having hit .405 with five ribbies in the past week. Like the rest of the Dodgers, Seager will be giddy at the prospects of hitting against Rockies rookie pitcher Peter Lambert, who has a composite .333/.402/.597 slash against left-handed hitters and has allowed a combined 17 homers in 86.1 innings. It’s at this point where secondary stats are unnecessary. You should know what to do next.

9/20 DFS Hitting Picks — Outfielder

Kyle Tucker, HOU vs. LAA

DK ($5,000), FD ($2,800)

Look for Tucker’s name to frequent the Astros’ lineup now that they’ve clinched a postseason berth. He’s striking out at a 26.1% rate, but the power he lacked in his brief time in the bigs last season has shown up, evidenced by a .205 Isolated Power rate. Tucker’s fly ball rate and hard contact rate are both 46.9%; you could look at every other player in the majors and probably won’t get that odd pairing again.

9/20 DFS Hitting Picks — Outfielder

Matt Beaty, LAD vs. COL

DK ($4,000), FD ($2,700)

Beaty should be in the lineup, having hit .283 with a pair of homers and 10 RBI in 46 at-bats against Rockies pitching this season. Beaty has mauled righties with an .881 OPS and also fares better at home, where his OPS sits at .865. September hasn’t been too productive for Beaty (.194 BA, .654 OPS), yet he’s still online to make the postseason roster. He’ll continue to make hard contact (41.7%) at an above-average level, while Beaty’s 13.2% HR/FB rate makes the most of a limited fly ball rate (33%).

9/20 DFS Hitting Picks — Outfielder

Eloy Jimenez, CWS at DET

DK ($4,300), FD ($4,000)

A 1.093 OPS with six homers and 17 RBI this month makes us feel like Jimenez is sending a warning shot toward opposing pitchers in 2020. The most encouraging number is a .403 OBP. My goodness, if Jimenez is learning plate discipline, then it’s time to be afraid. He’s not going to be in this range of salary a year from now, so I’d enjoy the rising hard contact rate (37.8%) and a 48.6% ground ball rate that I’d bet will closer to 40% next September. Like his teammate Yoan Moncada, feasting off Jordan Zimmermann makes Jimenez a good play.

9/20 DFS Hitting Stacks

9/20 Hitting Stack of the Day: Minnesota Twins: Skgolund will see a stack of righties from Minnesota, including the aforementioned Sano. Jonathan Schoop ($2,700 FanDuel) and Ehire Adrianza ($2,000 FD) are values if either/or is in the lineup. I’d look strongly at Mitch Garver ($5,500 DraftKings), and Nelson Cruz ($5,300 DK) as well.

9/20 Hitting Stack Runner-Up: Chicago White Sox: Jimenez and Moncada would lead the way. Zach Collins ($2,400 FD) is an interesting value play due to his power. Jose Abreu ($4,500 DK) is a must, as he has two career homers off of Zimmermann.

9/20 Hitting Stack to Consider: Los Angeles Dodgers: Beaty and Seager are part of a group that includes Joc Pederson ($4,200 DK), Cody Bellinger ($4,500 FD), Gavin Lux ($3,000 FD) and Will Smith ($2,600 FD) who are good options to tee off on Lambert.

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

8/22 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks

5 years ago

written by

Nine of Thursday’s games will be under the lights, so pay no mind to the happenings at Wrigley between the Giants and Cubs or the conclusion of the Royals at Red Sox matchup that was suspended on August 7. If you want to make the long green, the 8/22 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks is all about getting dirty after dark.

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8/22 DFS Hitting Catcher

Will Smith, C, LAD vs. TOR

DK ($4,600), FD ($3,800)

Normally, I’d suggest a bargain play behind the plate, but Smith has homered in each of the first two games of the series against the Blue Jays and comes into Thursday with six games of double-digit FanDuel points in his last seven starts. Smith has a 1.219 OPS while racking up 20 extra base hits among his first 28 professional hits. He’s also sporting a 10.2% walk rate and is making the most of his 51.6% hard contact rate by putting the ball in the air 54.8% of the time.

As vicious as Smith’s .314 BABIP feels, take a gander at his .488 Isolated Power. That’s some Ivan Drago with a bat and plate discipline stuff there. The way Smith has been swinging it almost feels like what Drago’s handler said in the early part of Rocky IV: Whatever he hits, he destroys. So trust that Smith will do so as your 8/22 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks backstop.

8/22 DFS Hitting First Baseman

Jose Abreu, CWS vs. TEX

DK ($4,600), FD ($4,000)

Wednesday’s three-hit effort gave Abreu a third straight game of at least 20 FanDuel points, continuing an August assault on American League hurlers that’s resulted in six homers and 20 RBI and a .995 OPS. Looking more like his rookie season in 2014, Abreu has elevated his HR/FB% to 23% despite a fly ball rate that has dipped to 31.7%. He’s maintained a solid line drive rate (21.6%) and Isolated Power (.223) despite a dip in walk rate to a career-low 4.9%.

Expect the heat from his August bat to continue at the expense of Rangers starter Ariel Jurado, who has allowed righties to tag him at a .324 clip in his last seven starts. You’ll love Abreu if he gets the opportunity to hit up Jurado with runners on base; Jurado has allowed a .317 batting average with runners in scoring position.

8/22 DFS Hitting Second Baseman

Jonathan Villar, BAL vs. TB

DK ($4,900), FD ($3,800)

Improved plate discipline is behind Villar’s second half tear that continued on Wednesday with his fifth two-hit game in the last week. After a tepid .326 OBP in the first half, Villar has raised it to .391 after the All-Star Break along with a 151-point jump in OPS from .747 to .898. He also smacked his 17th homer in Wednesday’s victory, putting his .171 Isolated Power on par with his career-best power season in 2016 with the Brewers, where he hit 19 homers. Villar isn’t smacking the ball hard (27.3% hard contact rate), but is making the most of a 50.4% medium contact rate, which will work more favorably against Rays ace Ryan Yarborough.

Why suggest Villar against a lights out pitcher like Yarborough has been in the second half? Because you take caution in the wind and take the hitter with the 1.039 OPS over the month of August. Thank me later if you take Villar.

8/22 DFS Hitting Shortstop

Amed Rosario, NYM vs. CLE

DK ($4,100), FD ($3,100)

He’s found the pay station in three straight games and comes into Thursday with a blistering .571/.613/.750 slash over the past week and a .952 OPS post All-Star Break. Rosario is thriving behind a .348 BABIP with a wRC+ of 106. His speed rate has dipped a bit to 6.3 but he’s made up for that with more pop, evidenced by his .171 Isolated Power, a 34-point jump from last season. That extra kick is also shown in his hard contact rate, which now stands at 35.4% while his soft contact rate has fallen to 12.8.

The 8/22 DFS Hitting Picks does offer its share of solid shortstops to choose from, but Rosario is the only hitting like it’s a video game.

8/22 DFS Hitting Third Baseman

Asdrubal Cabrera, WAS at PIT

DK ($3,600), FD ($2,800)

When he’s good, he’s good, having delivered eight RBI split up between two games over the past week. Cabrera has put together two exceptional scoring outbursts for his users coming into the finale of the four-game set against the Pirates and has been in a two-week stretch that has seen him produce a 1.044 OPS in that span.

His recent tear has boosted his line drive rate to 23.6% along with a hard contact rate that has eclipsed 40% for the first time in his career. He’s more of a power threat against lefties, something to keep in mind as the Pirates wheel out southpaw Steven Brault to the mound.

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8/22 DFS Hitting Outfielder

Hunter Pence, TEX at CWS

DK ($5,500), FD($4,000)

The seemingly ageless Pence has gone .351/.467/.541 (1.008 OPS) over the past two weeks and hits the road for a weekend set at the hitter’s haven known as Guaranteed Rate Field. Pence is more productive outside Arlington, where he’s posted a 1.014 OPS and swatted 11 of his 18 homers. Add the fact that Pale Hose starter Ross Detwiler brings it from the left side, and Pence — who hits lefties to the tune of .333/.385/.648 and a 1.048 OPS — becomes more solid when it comes to grabbing an outfielder who can be a major contributor to any 8/22 DFS Hitting Picks lineup.

8/22 DFS Hitting Outfielder

Charlie Blackmon, COL at STL

DK ($5,400), FD ($4,600)

Blackmon heads into St. Louis having recorded seven multi-hit games in his last nine starts during an August that has seen him nearly double (1.164) his July OPS (.664). Even despite a noticeable dip in walk rate (5.6%), Blackmon is having another outstanding season that has been bolstered by a career-high .280 Isolated Power and .358 BABIP.

This is also a good time to run with Blackmon, whose post All-Star Break has taken a bit of a drop to “just” .930 and is likely to see more time off as the Rockies’ Wild Card hopes dip with each passing day.

8/22 DFS Hitting Outfielder

Yordan Alvarez, HOU vs. DET

DK (5,800), FD ($4,200)

To throw another Rocky IV quote, Alvarez has shown “he’s a man,” having hit just .227 over the past week. Then again, that .227 has come with a pair of homers, a .379 OBP and .970 OPS. Perhaps we could be wrong. He’s been quiet, which is why I think that silence comes to an end at the expense of an improved yet still hitter’s chum in Tigers starter Jordan Zimmermann, who has been mauled by lefties (.322/.391/.526) the way Jaws found Quint to be a tasty mid-morning snack.

I don’t think he’ll eclipse the 76.30 FanDuel points he racked up on August 10, but I get the feeling Alvarez has a 30-40 FD point night waiting in his bat.

8/22 DFS Hitting Stacks

8/22 Stack of the Night: Houston Astros: I’m going all-in with the Astros’ left-handed hitters, beginning with Alvarez and including Michael Brantley, who goes in at a reasonable $4,000 at FanDuel. This would be a good night to throw a low-risk, high-reward dart in Josh Reddick’s direction ($2,400 FanDuel). Of course, there’s the usual faces to consider in Alex Bregman, George Springer and Jose Altuve, and while you can’t all of them, I’d make sure the lefties are in.

8/22 Stack Runner-Up: Atlanta Braves: Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara — who I think will be an All-Star hurler down the road — struggles with control away from home, so I’d look at going big with Freddie Freeman, who has four homers over the past week despite a .217 batting average, and Ronald Acuna, Jr., who has also kept up his pop despite hitting just .238 in the last week. Josh Donaldson has hit well of late, putting together a .458 OBP and 1.358 OPS in the last week, so he’s a strong play as well.

8/22 Stack to Consider: Chicago White Sox: As mentioned in the Abreu profile, the White Sox are facing a starter that has been shelled over the past month. Abreu is a good foundation for a stack along with Eloy Jimenez, who has a pair of homers in the past week. Tim Anderson is hitting .433 over the past week, and I’d look at James McCann as another right-handed bat to throw into what should be a fun party off of Ariel Jurado.

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

8/11 DFS Pitching Picks: A Good Day For Arm Wrestling

5 years ago

written by

Unlike Saturday’s slate, the Sunday 8/11 DFS pitching schedule brings good tidings for those who seeking top end pitchers. All three formats are well-stocked with options, including a sleeper or two that has a chance to deliver surprise numbers.

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8/11 DFS Pitching Cash Game Pitchers

Jacob deGrom, NYM vs. WSH

DK ($11,600) FD ($11,700)

deGrom has fattened the wallets of many over his last 15 starts, scoring at least 40 FanDuel points 11 times, with his 49 point effort in his previous start against the Marlins leaving him a point shy of four straight starts with at least 50 points. Obviously, starting deGrom as your SP1 will impact the coin you’ll spend on offense, but when you’re getting 11.45 K/9 with just 2.2 BB/9 while keeping the ball in the yard, you’ll spend it and do so smiling. deGrom sets the pace by hitting first pitch strikes at 66.5% and is still putting up good numbers despite not maintaining the off-the-charts pace he had in 2018.

Most pitchers will take a 4.9 WAR a this point of the season, but that — along with a RAR of 43.3 — is what deGrom carries into this contest. He’s more dominant at home in Citi Field, where deGrom has struck out 84 batters over 68 innings at home with a 3.18 ERA. He’s more unforgiving to the Nationals, holding them to an 0.75 ERA while putting together an 18:4 K/BB rate and a composite .167 allowed against them.

Justin Verlander, HOU at BAL

DK ($12,400) FD ($12,500)

Most will consider deGrom the better play, but you can’t fault anyone plugging Verlander as their SP1. JV has four straight starts of at least 58 FanDuel points and faces a Baltimore lineup bereft of quality in its lineup, a huge reason they are 24th in OPS and 25th in wRAA. He’s pushing for a second straight season of striking out at least 35% of opponents, and he’s still a legit Cy Young award candidate despite a rise in hard contact rate (40.8%) and an elevated HR/9 rate (1.68).

deGrom gets the edge because of his track record against the Nationals, but Verlander has won seven of his last eight starts and is on a four-start stretch of at least 10 strikeouts. I think you’ll get another 10-K from Verlander and another win that would give him a sixth straight win.

8/11 DFS GPP Plays

Mike Minor, TEX at MIL

DK ($9,600) FD ($9,200)

Minor hit some major turbulence in mid-July but has won his last two starts, including seven shutout innings against the Indians on Monday. One could say that Minor is having a career year, as his 31.3 RAR has already eclipsed the 29.6 RAR he recorded as a member of the Braves in 2012. He’s been inconsistent when it comes to FanDuel reduction, as his 28.95 FD points were his best output since scoring 34.55 FD against the Tigers on June 26.

The Brewers are hitting a combined .252/.312/.403 this month and are paying dearly for their all or nothing at all mindset, striking out 85 times in eight games. There is good potential for Minor to be able to exploit Milwaukee’s loss of Christian Yelich, who remains sidelined with back woes.

Lucas Giolito, CWS vs. OAK

DK ($10,600) FD ($9.800)

Giolito has at least 43 FanDuel points in three of his last four starts and has shaken off the 9 points he produced at FD against the Cubs on July 6. He’s approaching 11 strikeouts per nine innings (10.86 K/9 to date). Giolito has continued to keep opposing batters from making max impact against him (30.9% hard contact rate) and has avoided the long ball despite a 41.1% fly ball rate.

This shapes to a good matchup for Giolito, as the Athletics have seen their bats go .233/.340/.454 over the past week. Oakland’s longball or bust mentality will work agains them considering Giolito allows opposing bats to hit just .203 against him at home this season while he’s delivered 70 strikeouts over 59.1 innings. What keeps Giolito from being a cash pitcher is the uncertainty that the A’s bats get dialed in early and catch Giolito off-balance.

8/11 DFS Punt Plays

Jakob Junis, KC at DET

DK ($7,900) FD ($8,600)

Junis comes off a 37 FanDuel point outing against the Red Sox and already has starts of 37 and 34 points against the Tigers this season. There is sneaky good strikeout potential in Junis, who averages 8.46 K/9 to go along with a slightly above league average 3.12 BB/9. The Tigers’ lineup won’t be able to fully exploit Junis’ weakness (his 1.56 HR/9 rate), this despite the fact the Royals hurler sports a 42.4% hard contact rate.

There’s a chance the Tigers might get one off him, but I think Junis is capable of setting the pace early with strikeouts before getting the Detroit bats to induce ground balls as a steady clip. This is a good pairing if you’re looking to go with deGrom or Verlander in a cash league or even Giolito in a PPS format.

Monkey Knife Fight Pitching Props

For my debut in MKF, I’ll go Astros-Orioles and take the shot on Asher Wojciehowski lasting long enough to get the over on strikeouts before Houston’s lineup sends him to an early exit.

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

DFS Hitting Stacks & Picks for August 9

David Jones 5 years ago

written by David Jones

Yes, there is preseason football on tonight, but it’s the kind of football that will impact your Fantasy draft. In other words, stay focused on the diamond, follow the words and numbers below and be ready to make DFS money off the usual 15-game slate. Caring isn’t sharing here, so if there’s a sore pooh or two upset about not getting all 30 teams equally covered, well…um…tough. Them’s the breaks.Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!Opposite Day rules apply: we’ll find our bargains at each position before the glorious task of stacking (mmm…stacking) lineups.8/9 DFS Hitting CFrancisco Mejia, SD vs. COLDK ($3,200), FD ($2,300)Hey, if he keeps hitting, then why not keep him in the lineup? Mejia had his third straight multi-hit game on Thursday night and fourth in his last five, pushing his batting average above .260. His slugging percentage barely hovers above .400, but if there’s anything you need to know about catchers is that the pop sometimes is the last thing that develops. What will make Mejia — and his DFS users — smile in glee is that the Rockies are throwing the extended batting practice pitcher that is known as Kyle Freeland, who has given up as many homers as the number of batters he’s struck out (five) in his last two starts (Bonus smile: Right-handed hitters have gone .292/.362/.603 this season against Freeland).8/9 DFS Hitting 1BJose Abreu, CWS vs. OAKDK ($4,000), FD ($3,800)Abreu has rewarded FanDuel users with games of 37.70 and 25.40 points this week as his August OPS of 1.008 is light years from July’s tepid mark of .608. He’s cheap in either format and you’ll also take comfort in knowing his .804 OPS at Guaranteed Rate Field is better than his .782 away from ChiTown. Abreu’s .211 Isolated Power is slightly higher than last season’s, and his current stretch gives him a better than outside chance to finish with 35+ homers. Mike Fiers isn’t pitching in Oakland, which is a very good thing considering his ERA away from the City that M.C. Hammer Built is 4.62. Don’t hurt ’em, Jose (at least not too much).8/9 DFS Hitting 2BJason Kipnis, CLE at MINDK ($4,300), FD ($3,300)Since July 31, Kipnis has five multi-hit games along with three homers and 11 RBI. He’s been banging it over the past two weeks to the tune of .348./.423/.696, harkening back to the good ‘ol days when he was actually a must-own player in that other kind of Fantasy baseball. After a pair of dogs in 2017-18, Kipnis has found some fortune with his BABIP, which stands at .284. His current run is keyed by his hard contact rate of 38.7%, the best of his career. Rookie hurler Devin Smeltzer has been a revelation of sorts for the Twins’ staff, but Indians batters showed him hellfire and brimstone when they jacked four homers off him in a win on June 4.8/9 DFS Hitting SSBo Bichette, TOR vs. NYYDK ($4,300), FD ($3,900)Like the aforementioned Mejia, if it ain’t broke… Bichette made big league history on Thursday when he doubled for a ninth straight game along with taking Domingo German deep in the 12-6 loss to the Yankees. No one should pull Bichette aside and tell him it can’t be that easy, especially when he’s gone .408/.453/.837 in his first 11 games. Obviously, he’s not getting cheated out of his at-bats as Bichette has made either medium or hard contact 91.2% of the time. And yes, please throw lefty J.A. Happ in front of Bichette, who has hit lefties with a 1.476 OPS.8/9 DFS Hitting 3BJose Ramirez, CLE at MINDK ($4,300), FD ($3,300)Uh, oh. Perhaps I’ve tipped my hand on a stack? Maybe, but Ramirez has been a one-man stack over the past week by hitting .400 with a pair of homers, seven RBI and six runs scored. As bad as his numbers looked earlier in the season, this newfound version of Ramirez is well on his way to another 20-20 season. Ramirez has a 47.8% fly ball rate to go along with a 39.1% hard contact rate. You’ll take that combination to the bank against a hurler like Smeltzer.8/9 DFS Hitting OFYordan Alvarez, HOU at BALDK ($5,700), FD ($4,300)Hell yes, I’m paying steep for the right to have Alvarez in my lineup. A longtime friend of mine was witness to Alvarez’s homer on Wednesday and told me he had never heard the ball come off a bat the way that blast did. Considering I’ve known this guy since first grade, I’ll trust him. You really, really want him in FanDuel, where he’s recorded at least 12.50 points in five of his last six games, including a 27.90 and 22.20 performances. Any hitter with a .404 BABIP and 50.4% hard contact rate going against Orioles pitching, in tonight’s case Dylan “Me and 24 homers Allowed and 5.89 ERA at Home” Bundy, is worth every penny.8/9 DFS Hitting OFMike Tauchman, NYY at TORDK ($4,900), FD ($3,400)With a homer on Thursday, Tauchman has four dingers and 13 RBI this month. He’s not an all or nothing hitter, having recorded four multi-hit games in the same span. One would think Tauchman would have a blistering hard contact rate like Alvarez, but his is a surprising 31.7%. Couple that with a 32% fly ball rate, and you’re seeing a hitter making the most of his opportunities. The Blue Jays are starting Sean Reid-Foley, who is beginning to be stretched out as a starter. Reid-Foley has held opponents to a .229 batting average but has walked 14 in 21.2 innings. Seriously, do you really want that kind of a walk rate when facing the Yankees?8/9 DFS Hitting OFAristides Aquino, CIN vs. CHCDK ($3,700), FD ($3,000)Aquino’s homer off Cole Hamels on Thursday night jumped the fence at 118.3 mph, tying him with Pete Alonso and Gary Sanchez for the hardest-hit homer this season. He’s fanned once every three at-bats, but Aquino has produced a .905 OPS in his first 21 at-bats to go along with three homers (and a throw on Thursday that looked Jose Guillen-like with its velocity). Yu Darvish gets the opportunity to deal against the freakish Aquino and while his 71 strikeouts over his past 59.2 innings is a sign the old Darvish is back, all he has to do is ask Hamels what’s it like when you leave one up there for Aquino to lean into.Let’s take it home and stack ’em up, shall we?Top 8/9 MLB DFS Stack: Houston Astros: We touched on Dylan Bundy and his hitter-friendly numbers, which means get your Astros in where you can fit them it. Obviously, Yordan Alvarez will take a good grip of your salary, but that could be countered by going cheap on a speculative pitcher. George Springer ($4,400 at FanDuel) is hitting .368 with a homer and four RBI over the past week, while Yuli Gurriel ($3,500) scored a combined 102.30 FanDuel points in two games against the Rockies on Tuesday and Wednesday. Michael Brantley ($4,100) hasn’t homered in the past week but still hit .348 with nine RBI. As hot as Houston’s bats have been, you’ll sacrifice at a position or two in order to make this stack work.Chicago White Sox 8/9 MLB DFS Stack: As mentioned earlier, A’s starter Mike Fiers is suspect on the road, and the White Sox have enough hot bats to strongly consider stacking against him. Start with Jose Abreu (see his work at 1B) and follow up with Eloy Jimenez ($3,100 FanDuel) who looks overdue for a breakout since his return from the DL. James McCann ($2,800) has had a good week with 21.90 and 22.50 points sandwiched between a 15.70 outing. Tim Anderson ($3,000) comes into Friday having put up at least 15.20 points in four of his last six games.New York Yankees 8/9 MLB DFS Stack: The Yankees have hit 19 homers in four games this week and I’d bet on world peace coming before betting against the Yankees going homerless on Friday. Go with Mike Tauchman (see OF) and make room for Gio Urshela ($4,600 Draft Kings), who had two homers and four RBI on Thursday night. If you want to spend a bit more, then go with D.J. LeMahieu ($5,100), who has gone .370-2-6 in the past week. Even Cameron Maybin ($4,600), who racked up three hits on Thursday, is worth throwing into the fray.THANK YOU FOR READING. YOU CAN READ SOME OF MY OTHER WORK AND THOUGHTS ON MY AUTHOR PAGE. FOLLOW Win Daily DFS ON TWITTER @WinDailyDFS. PLEASE CHECK OUT EVERYTHING THAT Win Daily DFS HAS TO OFFER. NEW ARTICLES, STATISTICS AND DATA ARE BEING ADDED CONSTANTLY. ALSO, DO NOT FORGET TO LISTEN TO THE WIN DAILY PODCASTS HERE.

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB Sports Betting Premium

MLBMA Premium Algo Results 7.15.19

MLBMovingAvg 5 years ago

written by MLBMovingAvg

One slight change to the MLBMA readout you may notice will make it more comprehensive for use across formats. I scratched the color coded left column, which was creating confusion. The column with team names will be used to mark any F5 ML bets, based on a run differential greater than one between im...

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

Umpire Report for Main DFS Slate on June 30

Nicholas Robert 5 years ago

written by Nicholas Robert

Indians vs Baltimore- Umpire Joe West Avg. Ks/Gm- 18.20, Over record (4-11), 26.7% OVER, RUNS/Gm- 8.7, HR/Gm- 2.93

Royals vs Blue Jays- Umpire Mark Carlson Avg. Ks/Gm- 17.91, Over record (6-4), 60% OVER, RUNS/Gm- 9.8, HR/Gm- 3.18

Cubs vs Reds- Umpire Alan Porter Avg. Ks/Gm- 17.73, Over record (13-2), 86.7% OVER, RUNS/Gm- 12.2 , HR/Gm- 3.93

Rangers vs Tampa Bay- Bruce Dreckman Avg. Ks/Gm- 17.57, Over record (8-6), 57.1% OVER, RUNS/Gm- 9.4, HR/Gm- 1.50

Phillies vs Miami- Ted Barrett Avg. Ks/Gm- 16.25, Over record (6-8), 42.9% OVER, RUNS/Gm- 8.6, HR/Gm- 2.62

Nationals vs Tigers- Umpire Brennan Miller Avg. Ks/Gm- 12.00, Over record (1-0), 100% OVER, RUNS/Gm- 16.0, HR/Gm- 5.00

Twins vs White Sox- Jim Wolf Avg. Ks/Gm- 20.47, Over record (8-6), 57.1% OVER, RUNS/Gm- 9.9, HR/Gm- 2.53

Pittsburgh vs Brewers- Sean Barber Avg. Ks/Gm- 17.53, Over record (10-5), 66.7% OVER, RUNS/Gm- 11.9, HR/Gm- 3.00

Seattle vs Astros- Umpire Gabe Morales Avg. Ks/Gm- 15.33, Over record (8-5), 61.5% OVER, RUNS/Gm- 9.7, HR/Gm- 2.40

5 years ago 0 comment

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