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Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll go through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel. 

Hump Day!  It’s Wednesday and that brings us another split slate of MLB DFS.  I’m going to be focused on tonight’s 7 game slate. Pitching on this slate is mostly atrocious.  The one true ace on this slate is Blake Snell and he gets a dance with the Dodgers.  This does however mean we should have plenty of spots for stacks tonight.   

Let’s dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Blake Snell vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

I touched on this in the opener, but the one true ace on this slate is Blake Snell and he gets a matchup with the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight.  It’s a scary matchup but Blake Snell has been an absolute beast this season.  His K rate has been down a bit of late, but it’s still over 30% over the last month. 

Is he safe tonight?  Far, very far from it.  But his price is down from where it’s been as he’s only $10.1k on DK tonight.  That’s much easier to swallow than the $11k we’ve seen him recently.  This game has the makings of a 2-1 game and I do believe that Snell pitches well enough tonight to get to at least his 20 DK points that I like to see from $10k pitchers. 

Joey Lucchesi vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

I said that pitching was bad tonight and I meant it.  Every single pitcher comes with risk.  We could have gone with Hunter Brown but he’s been really bad of late.  Lucchesi has made just one start over the last month and it was really solid.  Against the Cardinals, he went 5 strong innings and struck out 5.  He walked away with the W and ended up with 23 DK points. 

Do we expect the same tonight?  Eh, maybe.  The Diamondbacks on the year haven’t been all that great vs. lefties.  They have just a .146 ISO vs. them and a .709 OPS.  Nothing special on their end.  Lucchesi is very cheap tonight at just $6.2k and will allow us to get most of the bats that we want. 

I don’t mind Zac Gallen tonight vs. the Mets but I actually like some of their bats.  Brown has been bad so I’m hesitant to start him, even against the A’s.  Look at what they did vs. Verlander last night. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Houston Astros vs. Paul Blackburn

I’m not really sold on Paul Blackburn.  He’s pitched well over the last month but I’ve always thought he was overrated and have looked for opportunities to stack against him.  Tonight’s going to be no different.  He has a great ERA over the last month at just 2.33 but he also has some metrics that scream that he could get lit up by a good lineup.  He’s allowed a 40% hard-hit rate and he’s also allowed a nearly 37% flyball rate over that stretch. 

Both of those numbers are well above average and against a lineup like the Astros, he could get lit up.  I’ll enjoy watching it.  Against Blackburn, splits aren’t really that important.  He’s been pretty splits neutral this season. 

If you’ve followed my writing over the years, you know I have an affinity for Yordan Alvarez.  He is a beast and when he’s hot, he may have the best swing in the game of baseball.  Against righties this season he’s been great.  He owns a .438 wOBA and a .312 ISO.  Those numbers are insanely high and I’m going to make it a priority to get him into my lineup tonight. 

After Alvarez, I really like guys like Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve, and Jose Abreu.  Abreu has found the fountain of youth and has been swinging a solid bat. He’s got 10 RBI over the last week and should be able to hammer some home tonight in a great matchup vs. a bad pitcher IMO.  The Astros have one of the highest implied run totals on the slate.  Vegas has this one right.

Chicago White Sox vs. Steven Cruz/Royals Bullpen

The Royals plan on going with Steven Cruz as their starter tonight so we’re more than likely to see a bullpen game out of the Royals.  This is a great thing for us because the Royals bullpen is not good.  Over the last 2 weeks, the Royals bullpen has been bad. They own a 4.50 xFIP and an ERA that is pushing 5.  It’s an exploitable spot, even if it’s the White Sox. 

The White Sox have some guys that have been hitting the ball well and have hit the ball well most of the year.  I’m going to be focused on the 4 guys in the middle of the lineup.  Those guys are Luis Robert, Eloy Jimenez, Yoan Moncada, and Andrew Vaughn.  My favorite of the bunch is going to be Andrew Vaughn.  He’s been great of late.  He’s 7 for his last 21 and has an OPS that is extremely close to 1.000 over the last week. 

Moncada has been showing a little bit of power as he’s homered twice over the last week.  He’s in a great spot tonight to continue his solid hitting.  I also like Tim Anderson and Andrew Benintendi here.  It’s far from a safe spot but the White Sox are in a great spot tonight. 

Other stacks I like tonight are the Mets vs. Gallen and Royals vs. Mike Clevinger. 

MLB DFS Summary

This slate has the makings of a fun one!

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.   

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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Welcome to the Friday edition of Aces and Bases.  Today we have our first 4 game slate of the 2021 MBL Division Series.  All 8 playoff teams are in action

My goal today will be to walk you through where my mind is with pitching and then focus on some bats that are a must. 

Let’s dig in to today’s slate!

MLB DFS: The Aces

My pitching pool today will consist of 3 pitchers.  Corbin Burnes ($10.4 FD/$9.1k DK), Walker Buehler ($9.9k FD/$8.5k DK), and Shane Baz ($7.8k FD/$6.3k DK).  Let’s start with Burnes.  I’m going to ignore his final start of the year because it was a meaningless 2 inning start. 

I want to focus on the three starts before that.  He K’d 14 Indians, 11 Cubs, and then 9 Mets.  That’s 34 K’s in just 21 innings.  No one on this slate has the strike out upside as Burnes has.  Burnes is going to face a predominantly right handed lineup today.  He has a 37% K rate vs. them in 2021 and gave up just a .061 ISO.   No pitcher is safe today, but Burnes is the safest of the bunch.

Next up on my wish list is Buehler.  He comes into today’s game after pitching arguably his best game of the year on Sunday.  In that game he struck 11 in just 5 innings and gave up just 3 hits to the Brewers.  He’s pitching on regular rest so there’s little risk to him being rusty. 

Giants should throw out 5 lefties in their lineup today.  For us, that’s not a bad thing.  While he has a slightly lower K rate against lefties, he also gives up less fly balls and less hard contact.  Look for Buehler to have a dominant game against a Giants team that hasn’t played since Sunday.  

The final guy I’m looking at is Shane Baz.  This kid has a dynamic arm.  I suspect he’s going to be more popular today on DK because of how cheap he is.  While he has only 3 Major League games under his sleeve, all 3 showed some dominance.  He had a near 37% K rate in those 3 games and had a greater than 16% swinging strike rate.  The biggest risk with Baz is a quick hook.  IF he gets into trouble early, Kevin Cash could go to his bullpen pretty quickly. 

I’m off Sale today.  He’s coming into the playoffs not in good form. Over his last 12 innings he’s given up 6 walks and 7 runs.  He’s not sharp and gets a tough match up vs. the Rays.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Chicago White Sox vs. Framber Valdez – Of all the pitchers on the hill today, Valdez has the highest xFIP and has given up the most hard contact.  His hard rate over the past 30 days is nearly 41%.  And he gets an absolutely awful match up.  The White Sox were one of the best teams in baseball this season vs. lefties. 

Valdez is going to throw a ton of sinkers today.  He throws it more than 60% of the time to both sides of the plate.  Guys like Tim AndersonLuis Robert, and Yasmani Grandal have historically crushed sinkers coming from lefties.  All have ISO’s over .250 over the last few years vs. the pitch.  They would be my core to any White Sox stack.  If you need some value, a guy like Andrew Vaughn is very affordable on both sites today.  

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chris Sale – I said it up top that Sale is not in good form.  He’s beatable and he’s going to get beat by the Rays today.  It’s all going to start with Randy Arozarena.  The guy was built for October.  He dominated the playoffs last year and he started out on fire last night.  Who steals home in the playoffs? 

My TB stack will start with him and then include guys like Nelson CruzYandy Diaz, and Mike Zunino.  All 3 of them come into the game today with solid numbers vs. lefties on the year and especially over the last month.  Sale and his slider are going to be no match for the Rays today. Margot and Luplow are great values but are also pinch hit risks later in the game.   

Houston Astros vs. Lucas Giolito – Gio is a solid pitcher but he’s facing a team that’s hitting the ball extremely well right now.  Over their last 4 games they haven’t scored less than 6 runs.  That includes yesterday vs. Lance Lynn.  Any Astros stack has to start with Yordan Alvarez.  He has the most power of anyone on the Astros and has a .271 ISO vs. righties over the last month.  

Kyle Tucker is another guy I’d want to prioritize here.  Gio throws his change up a third of the time to lefties.  Tucker has a .289 ISO against righty change ups and a 45% hard hit rate.  Brantley is also someone else to put in your lineup as he’s batting second and is very affordable today on both sites. 

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

All pitchers today have some level of risk.  Most teams have rested bullpens and pitchers this time of year have shorter hooks than normal.  That said, Burnes and Buehler are the aces I’d target and if you want to get cute Baz should be your guy.  

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s nine-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

The ugliest weather is in St. Louis, and there’s a good shot at a delay or postponement there. Some other trouble spots to be aware of as well, but the Cubs-Cards is the worst of it.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Lucas Giolito ($9,900)

Giolito has pretty balanced splits against both sides of the plate, which is a good thing when facing a Tigers lineup that’s full of switch-hitters. While there are some rain concerns in this game, most of the heavy stuff probably stays south of the ballpark, and there’s a good chance they just play through some lighter rain. It’s one of the early games, so we’ll have to check back on the radar before lock and hopefully get confirmation there’s no late start or delay — which could complicate things. But I love his upside on a slate where Corbin Burnes and Julio Urias both have tough matchups and could have an early hook. The White Sox righty, on the other hand, should go a little deeper into this game and has the highest projected FD total of the slate — and the most upside. Aside form his last start in Detroit on July 4, he’s handled the Tigers (who have the third-highest K rate in MLB) pretty well this season. Giolito is a fine play in all formats.

GPP Value Play: Chris Flexen ($9,100)

Flexen isn’t a dazzling SP option, but he’s usually god for 5-6 Ks and almost always pitches 5-7 innings — an important factor when we consider the stage of the season we’re at. The Angels are sporting the second-worst team wOBA in baseball over the past 14 days (.273) with a paltry .218/.302/.322 slash line in that span. Flexen’s upside is capped at around 50 FD points, but he’s got a great shot at hitting 35-40 points if you’re looking for some safety. As long as he stays away from throwing too many cutters (the Angels hit that pitch relatively well), he’ll have success with his fastball/curveball combo.

Contrarian GPP Play: Zac Gallen ($8,400)

Gallen hasn’t had the season many hoped for, as the righty showed lots of promise during his first two seasons in the big leagues. But he’s been a thorn in the side of the Rockies, pitching well in his last start in Coors (7.0 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 0 ER and 9 Ks — good for 52 FD points on Aug. 21). Even when he got “rocked by the Rockies” earlier in a home start, he struck out seven batters. I love him as a cheap contrarian play who could have a ceiling game against a lineup that’s got nothing to strive for except their pride.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Atlanta Braves

I’m assuming the Braves won’t sit everyone again tonight since the lineup core got a breather on Friday, but we’ll have to check back before lock to make sure they’re playing. Even with an early yank, these hitters have plenty of upside and could pile up some runs in the first few innings facing Mets SP Trevor Williams. The priority bats are Freddie Freeman ($3,900), Jorge Soler ($3,400), Adam Duvall ($3,300), Eddie Rosario ($3,000). Austin Riley and Ozzie Albies would be in play, but are expected to get the night off.

GPP Value Stack: Minnesota Twins

The Twins have a slew of excellent hitters in absolute SMASH spots tonight versus Royals SP Kris Bubic, and I’ll be starting my stacks with Jorge Polanco ($3,600), Byron Buxton ($4,100) and Josh Donaldson ($3,400). We can choose our fourth hitter from riskier but high-upside cheaper options like Mitch Garver ($3,100), Miguel Sano ($2,500) and Brent Rooker ($2,200). They’ll be my primary GPP stack and should produce a lot of fireworks tonight.

GPP Value/Contrarian Stack: Arizona Diamondbacks

We don’t write up the D-backs much in this space, but they matchup up well against Antonio Senzetela, who’s been okay this season but has struggled through his past few starts. I’ll have at least a couple GPP lineups Arizona stacks featuring an array of hitters form the 1-6 spots in their order, prioritizing Ketel Marte ($3,400), David Peralta ($2,300), Daulton Varsho ($2,300), Pavin Smith ($2,100) and Carson Kelly ($2,400), with a few shares of cheap (and near-minimum price) leadoff hitter Josh Rojas ($2,100).

More (Obvious) Cash/GPP Game Stack Options: Houston Astros, Cleveland Indians & Chicago White Sox

Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

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Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s nine-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

No weather that will likely impact play, and best hitting environments are in Baltimore, Cincinnati, Coors Field and Anaheim.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Corbin Burnes ($11,100)

He’s the top ace of the day with a fine matchup against the Mets, and will likely be the most popular for cash games. With an obnoxious, almost unheard-of 1.58 FIP and 2.34 ERA in line with his 2.31 XFIP, Burnes is having a historic season. His 12.59 K/9 is amazing, but it’s even more implausible when we consider the 1.82 BB/9 rate. The Mets just got flummoxed by Eric Lauer last night, and now they face a pitcher with a curveball/cutter combo that’s among the best we’ve seen over the past 20 years. Lock him into cash lineups and move on.

Best GPP Play: Robbie Ray ($10,800)

Ray has had two poor starts among his last three, but his regularity in the 45-70 point range this season means he’s the best GPP play on the board against the Twins in Minnesota. We could see some portion of the field move to Burnes given the recency bias of Ray’s last start. The Toronto ace shouldn’t have too many problems with the righty-heavy Twins lineup, and although they hit fastballs well, Ray’s is among the best in baseball. Adam Strangis goes through some of the same rationales in his excellent Starting Rotation article for 9/25, and while that mainly looks at DK pricing, the thought process only affirms itself even more on FD, where you have to choose one pitcher. Ray is the best GPP option considering price and upside.

Contrarian GPP Play: Lance Lynn ($10,000)

He’s a contrarian play based on the other two pitcher I’ve discussed, so if you really want to get different I don’t have a problem with using Lynn in large-field GPPs. For single entry I’d prefer both Burnes and Ray, but Lynn does have some upside in this matchup vs. Cleveland and still boasts ands nice 30-35 point floor because of his solid metrics (3.26 FIP and 27.8% K rate). The mases won’t be on him, so maybe he’s a good pivot in one-third to half your multi-entry lineups.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: San Francisco Giants

If we can fit these guys, I think today is one of the days we have to play them. Brandon Crawford ($3,900), LaMonte Wade, Jr. ($3,800), Tommy La Stella ($3,600), Brandon Belt ($4,300) and Kris Bryant ($4,300) and Evan Longoria ($3,700) are not cheap, but I’m hoping we can find a way to get a full four-man stack in there with a couple of value plays from the Reds and a two more (one-offs or two-man mini stack). , Mike Yastrzemski ($3,800) is day-to-day after being removed from Friday’s contest with knee soreness, so keep an eye on who starts in the outfield. We may find a player like Alex Dickerson ($2,500) in a good spot at a reduced salary.

GPP Value Stack: Cincinnati Reds

This just feels like a Reds day facing Erick Fedde, and they’ve got good hitting weather, a hittable pitcher, and a lineup peppered with enough value plays that will let us spend at SP without much discomfort. I’m looking at four-man combinations of the following hitters: Joey Votto ($4,100), Nick Castellanos ($3,800), Max Schrock ($2,100), Jonathan India ($3,500), Tucker Barnhart ($2,200), Kyle Farmer ($3,300) and T.J. Friedl ($2,100). And that’s in order of priority.

GPP Value Stack #2: Seattle Mariners

Angels SP Jaime Barria has an xFIP over 5.00, and we have a slew of relatively inexpensive hitters from both sides of the plate who match up well in this spot. Prioritize the 1-5 hitters, especially J.P. Crawford ($3,000), Ty France ($3,000) and Mitch Haniger ($3,600) and mix in guys like Jake Fraley ($2,000) and Abraham Toro ($2,400) if you’re tight on salary.

Bonus Contrarian Stacks: Chicago White Sox, Baltimore Orioles

Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

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Welcome to the Sunday Funday edition of Aces and Bases.  Today we have a nice sized 10 game slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through. 

My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day.  With today’s slate we are going to see a much smaller tournament pool with NFL starting.  Today’s a day to scale back as the risk just won’t worth the reward.  At first look I wasn’t going to play, but it’s a fun looking slate so I’m going to play. 

Let’s dig in to today’s slate!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Logan Webb ($9.7k) vs. Chicago Cubs – Logan Webb has been one of the best and most consistent pitchers over the past month.  Over his last 7 starts he hasn’t been under 40 FD points, with 3 of them going for at least 50.  With a match up vs. the Cubs today I see no reason he doesn’t get to 40 again.  

Let’s start by looking at why he’s been so great over the last month.  The two things I’m looking at the most are his strike out rate and his groundball rate.  He has a 31% K rate and 66% ground ball rate.  When he’s not striking batters out, they’re mostly hammering the ball into the ground. 

During his hot stretch he’s faced teams like Milwaukee, Atlanta, and Oakland.  All very solid offenses.  The Cubs pale in comparison to those offenses.  Look for Webb to be the top starting pitcher on the day.

Max Fried ($9.3k) vs. Miami Marlins – Over the last month the Marlins have really struggled vs. southpaws.  The projected lineup today has a near 30% K rate vs. them and just a .132 ISO.  I’m going to look to take advantage of that with Max Fried. 

Fried himself has been pretty good over that same stretch.  He’s pitching to a 2.91 xFIP and has really been doing a great job at keeping hitters in check.  While his K rate is only at 24% over the last 30 days, his match up gives him some upside.  The Braves are looking to pad their division lead so they’ll be banking on a solid performance from Fried.  Really like his chances of giving us value today. 

Sonny Gray ($9.2k) vs. St. Louis Cardinals – I’m sticking with the 2 guys I mentioned fist, but Gray gives us another option that has some K upside today.  Over the last month his K rate is sitting at around 22% which isn’t that great.  But it’s higher against righties and he’s going to face a team loaded with righty bats today. 

Also, the Cardinals have been striking out a ton over the past week as they have a 29.7% k rate.  We’ve seen the Cardinals fall asleep against righties at time this year and today could be a day for Gray to have a ceiling game.  He’s a high risk/high reward play. 

MLB DFS: The Bats

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Ryan Feltner – We don’t have much to go on w/ Feltner because he made his debut a week ago. That debut did not go as intended as he got rocked for 6 ER in just 2 innings of work.  Both sides of the plate lit him up. 

With the Phillies we have a team that’s currently in the playoff hunt.  This time of the year those are going to be the teams that we focus on as they’re still going to be putting their best lineup out there.  We also have a team in the Phillies that has some really hot bats. 

The three Phills I’m going to be focused on today are Bryce Harper ($4.4k)Jean Segura ($3.2k), and Brad Miller ($2.4k).  Those three guys give us a mix of expensive, evenly priced, and cheap. They are also the Phillies hottest hitters.  All three have OPS’s greater than 1.000 over the past week.  Harper is as locked in as I’ve ever seen him.  He has 5 homers and 7 barrels over the last 7 days.  He’s making his case for MVP down the stretch.  Look for the Phillies to put a big number today.

Chicago White Sox vs. Nick Pivetta – Looks like Pivetta has hit a bit of a speed bump as pitching has been a of a struggle for him recently.  He’s given up 4 ER in 3 straight games.  If the White Sox can be patient at the plate today they should have a dominant game.  I preach patience for the White Sox because Pivetta’s struggles of late have come with the walk. 

In his last 10 innings he’s walked 10 batters.  That’s not going to cut it.  Outside of his walks, he’s also been getting hit pretty hard.  He’s giving up a 44% hard hit rate over the last 30 days and a 44% fly ball rate.  Pivetta’s been giving up more hard contact and more fly balls to righties and that’s where I’m going to hang out today. 

The righties I’m focused on are Jose Abreu ($3.8k) and Luis Robert ($3.9k).  Both guys have been hitting righties well over the last month.  Abreu has a .250 ISO against them and Robert has a .425 wOBA.  The value plays I like in this lineup are Garcia ($2.5k) and Goodwin ($2.2k)

While Pivetta’s been better against righties, he’s still susceptible vs. lefties.  Both Garcia and Goodwin will provide us the value we need and have wOBA’s over .340 against righties over the last month.

Washington Nationals vs. Bryce Wilson – The Nats are my cheap stack today.  I’ve recommended some pretty pricey guys so far so we’ll need more value.  The Nats are going to provide that today with a great match up vs. Wilson.  Wilson is someone I like to attack because he gives up a lot of hard contact and doesn’t miss many bats. 

Over the last 30 days his swinging strike rate is just 9% and his hard rate is approaching 40%.  40% isn’t overly high but when you look at his low SwStr% it means he’s putting more balls in play which means more hard hits in play.  Wilson has also been a reverse splits guys and the righties from the Nats are cheap. 

Righties have a 56% fly ball rate and 50% hard hit rate against Wilson over the last month.  Kieboom ($2.6k) and Thomas ($2.4k) are really my top values here.  Thomas has been very serviceable of late with 6 games of double digit FD points in his last 9 games.  At that price he’s going to be a great value if he continues playing like he is. 

If you want to prioritize the Nats today over the other teams I mentioned, both Bell ($3.6k) and Soto ($4.5k) are swinging hot sticks with OPS’s greater than 1.000 over the last 7 days.  They should both do very well today and will probably be low owned.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

My lean right now is to use either Fried or Webb.  I love how the Phillies and White Sox fit together and I’m going to prioritize getting them into my lineups.   

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s eight-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:10PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

No rain in the forecast but we do have winds blowing out in St. Louis for the Reds-Cards game — something to consider for Cincinnati GPP stacks.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Walker Buehler ($9,700)

We can chalk up his last outing (3 IP, 7 H, 1 K, 6 ER @SF) to a bad day, and his last start vs. the Padres yielded a solid outcome. The K rate is down a bit in 2021, but the walks are down, the ground ball rate has increased and the solid 2.31 ERA isn’t too far separated from the 3.18/3.59 FIP/xFIP combo. We’re looking at about a 35-40 point projections here, with a 50-point ceiling, and that’s good enough to make him the top SP for cash games and single-entry.

Best GPP Value: Charlie Morton ($9,000)

Morton looks like a solid value tonight against the Marlins, who have the second-highest team K% in MLB. The veteran’s upside probably even exceeds Buehler’s tonight given the matchup, and that upside comes with a built-in discount from the top two arms on the slate in Buehler and Luis Castillo. I’m not as interested in Castillo because of how he can get lit up, especially against a team filled with potent bats like the Cards, but he’d make for a semi-contrarian choice given that tougher matchup. Morton seems to fit the best and carry the highest chance of notching both a QS and W, so he’s my first choice for GPPs.

Contrarian GPP Play: Luis Garcia ($8,300)

Garcia isn’t a very exciting play, but if we need a leverage pivot with some upside, he’s probably it. His ownership should be lower than Morton’s, and he’s seen an uptick in velocity on his pitches lately. The problem is that he’s got a much lower floor than either Morton or Buehler, and while the price is severely discounted compared to DraftKings, he hasn’t notched double-digit Ks in any start this season despite a 10.41 K% because he rarely pitches six full innings.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Houston Astros

The implied run total is well over 5, and the Astros have been red-hot offensively over the past few games, so we should start any stack off with Alex Bregman ($3,200), and then play some combination of Jose Altuve ($3,800) and Yordan Alvarez ($3,400), Carlos Correa ($3,500), Kyle Tucker ($3,200) Yuri Gurriel ($2,900) and value options Michael Brantley ($2,600) and Martin Maldonado ($2,100). There’s really nobody that’s out of consideration given the circular nature of this powerful lineup.

GPP Stack #1: Chicago White Sox

The prices are still relatively affordable for the White Sox (even moreso on DK), with Luis Robert ($3,900), Jose Abreu ($3,800), Eloy Jimenez ($3,500) and Yasmani Grandal ($3,800) all in play for stacks against Red Sox projected starter Connor Seabold. Andrew Vaughn is just $2,300, and both Brian Goodwin ($2,200) and Yoan Moncada ($3,200) are in play as well. It’s simply a great spot for mixing and matching a few different four-man stacks of White Sox.

GPP Stack #2: Cincinnati Reds

Miles Mikolas doesn’t scare me one bit, and while the Reds are a dynamic bunch who can disappoint on occasion, I like the four-man stack of Jonathan India ($3,700), Nick Castellanos ($4,100), Joey Votto ($3,700) and Tyler Naquin ($2,700) the best among this bunch, with Eugenio Suarez ($3,200), Max Schrock ($2,100) and Tucker Barnhart ($2,400) the best of the rest.

Bonus Value Stacks: Seattle Mariners, Minnesota Twins

Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

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Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Aces and Bases.  Today we have a nice sized 12 game slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through. 

My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day. 

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Blake Snell ($10.1k) vs. Los Angeles Angels – Blake Snell is on a heater right now and I want to join the ride.  Over the last month Snell has an insane 41% K rate.  He’s reached 9 K’s or more in 3 of his last 4 outings.  With a match up against a struggling Angels lineup I just don’t see how the momentum gets stopped. 

Over the last week the Angels have struck out almost 28% of the time.  Snell’s main strike out pitch is his slider.  Outside of Fletcher and Adell this is a pitch that the Angels struggle with as the majority of the lineup tonight have whiff rates over 28%. 

The strike outs are going to be there for Snell tonight.  It’s just going to be a matter of how long the Padres let him stay out there. 

Gerrit Cole ($11.3k) vs. Toronto Blue Jays – Another pitcher in peak form is Gerrit Cole.  Cole, just like Snell, has a K rate over 40% over the past month.  Gone are his struggles post spider tack. 

Cole has 4 consecutive outings with 46 or more FD points and that’s probably his floor again tonight.  While the match up against a strong Blue Jays lineup is going to be tough, Cole is an ace.  If we dig in to pitch data Cole has a chance of a solid game tonight. 

While he throws his fastball around 47% of the time he normally uses his slider to strike batters out.  If we look at the Blue Jays lineup we can see it’s a pitch they struggle with.  Only Dickerson has a whiff rate less than 30%.  If Cole’s slider is on tonight he has the chance to get closer to his ceiling than floor.  

Logan Webb ($9.7k) vs. Colorado Rockies – I don’t often use pitchers in Colorado but Webb has been lights out and his profile sets up well to have success in Coors.  Webb is an extreme ground ball pitcher and if you want to use a pitcher in Coors that’s the type you’d want to pick. 

Over the past month Webb has been dominant with a 31.7% K rate, a 2.24 xFIP, and a 64% ground ball rate.  He’s given up just 4 barrels and 1 home run in 33 innings of work over that period. Love Webb’s chances to have a ceiling game tonight. Webb is my high risk/high reward pitcher tonight.  

MLB DFS: The Bats

Kansas City Royals vs. Alex Wells – While the Royals disappointed a bit yesterday we need to go right back to the well today as they get a great match up vs. Wells.  Wells on the year hasn’t been good as he has a near 6 xFIP. 

It’s been pretty limited as he hasn’t been up in the Majors much this year but there’s been a reason for that.  His biggest weakness has been against righties.  They have a .250 ISO against him this year and a sub 10% K rate. 

With the Royals we have a few guys that I really want and it will all start with Salvador Perez ($3.9k).  Over the past 30 days he’s been crushing lefties with a .323 ISO.  He’s also in the zone right now as he had a great past week.  Over the last 7 days he has 3 homers to go with his 50% hard hit rate. 

Other guys I want here are Mondesi ($3.9k) and Olivares ($2k).  Mondesi because he’s always a threat to either hit a homer or steal a base and Olivares because he’s min priced in just a great a hitting environment.  He really opens up a ton of salary for us today if he cracks the lineup.  

San Francisco Giants vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez – I often try to not use one of my 3 recommended stacks on a team in Coors but when the match up is what it is, I just can’t ignore it.  The Giants get to take on one of my favorite punching bags in Gonzalez. 

On the year Gonzalez has been brutal.  He owns a 5.57 xFIP and a measly 13% K rate.  Batters have been teeing off on him with a  45% hard hit rate.  He’s someone we should always consider stacking against him and that’s what I plan on doing tonight. 

Gonzalez is typically much worse against righties so I’m going to build this stack around Bryant ($4.1k) assuming he’s back in the lineup tonight.  While he’s been a bit cold of late there’s no better remedy for a slump than Gonzalez. 

Other guys I’ll want here are LaMonte Wade ($3.4k) and Brandon Belt ($3.3k).  Both guys are criminally underpriced considering the match up and environment.  Also, both guys have been really solid against righties over the past month with ISO’s over .220 for both of them.  Giants should put up a big number tonight and I want to be a part of it.  

Chicago White Sox vs. James Kaprielian – White Sox get a great match up tonight vs. a pitcher in Kap that’s really been struggling.  Over the past 30 days Kap is pitching to a 6.16 xFIP. He’s really been getting hurt by the long ball as he’s given up 6 in his 25 innings of work. 

This is going to be a tough match up for him tonight as he’s a fly ball pitcher going against a fly ball team.  Kap’s biggest struggles of late have come against lefties as they have a .340 ISO and .435 wOBA against him over the past 30 days. 

My foundation with the White Sox is going to be Gavin Sheets ($2.1k).  He’s not a guarantee to crack the lineup but if he does he’s a lock for me tonight.  He’s cheap and hits for power vs. righties. 

Other guys I’ll want to include here are Yasmani Grandal ($3.6k), Eloy Jimenez ($3.5k), and Jose Abreu ($4.1k).  These 3 have been crushing the ball over the past month and should have no issues with Kap tonight. 

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

My pitching tonight will focused on the 3 names I mentioned, with Snell being the leading candidate to make my lineup.  My main core of bats will be the Royals and I’ll be sure to sprinkle in some Giants and Sox.  There’s going to be a ton of offense tonight. After Cole and Snell we really see sharp drop off in pitching. 

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s eight-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:10PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

The biggest weather threat is in Cincinnati for the Tigers-Reds game, which if it plays will have to be through heavy rain. If the forecasts changes we can consider the Reds hitters against LHP Matthew Boyd, but this game has a good shot at a PPD so it might just be too risky even for bats.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Framber Valdez ($9,800)

There isn’t an SP play on the main slate without risk, but Valdez offers the best shot at a decent floor with GPP-winning upside. He’s likely where a lot of folks will be starting their cash game builds. If he can avoid the big blow from Fernando Tatis Jr. and navigate through the rest of this lefty-heavy lineup, I’m confident he’ll be sitting somewhere in that 29-46 point range where he’s lived comfortably in his last seven starts. Valdez sports a relatively pedestrian 22.4% K rate this season, but he’s posted at least 6 Ks in five of his last six starts and the Padres don’t necessarily destroy lefty pitching. This slate isn’t pretty for starting pitching, but Valdez is likely the best we’ve got.

Best GPP Value: Reynaldo Lopez ($8,100)

The White Sox starting rotation has taken some hits lately, with both Lane Lynn and Lucas Giolito on the shelf — at least temporarily. If Tony La Russa weren’t so old school, I’d be worried about Lopez going the requisite five innings he needs to pick up the win, but if “Pound-em-down” Tony says Lopez is starting, he’s probably willing to let him go 5-6 IP, which should be plenty long enough to make value against the Royals. Lopez had 42 FD points in his last start (against the Cubs) on August 27, striking out 7 in 5.0 IP and notching a win. We could see similar results tonight.

Contrarian GPP Play: Joe Musgrove ($8,800)

As WinDaily’s Adam Strangis points out in his MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.4 article, Musgrove worked some magic against the Angels his last time on the bump, and gets another tough test facing the Astros — a team that just doesn’t strike out very much and mashes it around the yard (lowest K-rate in baseball, top three in wOBA, wRC+, OPS, and OBP). Musgrove is pitching this game in his team’s NL park, so that helps, and the most recent performance by the Astros against an ancient Jake Arrieta shows that at least they aren’t red-hot heading into the matchup. Both of the implied team totals in this game are under 4 runs, so it could really go either way. I’m assuming that Musgrove’s ownership will be much lower than that of Valdez. If Braves RHP Ian Anderson were looking anything like his 2020 self in his last few starts after returning from injury, I’d have some interest in suing him as a contrarian play in Coors, but that just doesn’t appear to be the wise move tonight.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Los Angeles Dodgers

We’ve got another huge total Coors game tonight, so if you’re believer they’ll finally give us the shootout we’ve been promised tonight — have at it. But the past couple of nights have given us the highest totals outside of Coors, which is where we’ll be focusing our attention for tonight’s slate. That starts with Dodgers against LHP Sammy Long in San Francisco in a revenge game. This lineup just lost first place to the Giants last night and they absolutely destroy fastballs, and that’s primarily what Long throws. I’m starting my stacks with Trea Turner ($4,300), Mookie Betts ($4,100), A.J. Pollock ($3,200) and Justin Turner ($3,800), but lefties Max Muncy ($4,000 — if he doesn’t sit) and Corey Seager ($3,800) are in play as well.

The Second-best Stack: Chicago White Sox

If you’re not into playing the juggernaut Dodgers in a pitcher’s park, then consider rolling out the White Sox, who project well against young lefty Daniel Lynch. Lynch has been solid lately and has some contrarian upside in his own right tonight, but the smart money (4.95 projected team total for the Sox) is on Luis Robert ($4,200), Jose Abreu ($4,100), Eloy Jimenez ($3,600) and Yasmani Grandal ($3,500) pulvering baseballs and giving us a big offensive night. Andrew Vaughn and his .380 wOBA vs. LHP is the best value option at just $2,500, while Leury Garcia ($2,300) who sports positive splits against LHP (.320 wOBA) makes sense as well if you need the salary savings and need to drop one of the bigger bats.

Value GPP Stack: Los Angeles Angels

The Angels offense just hasn’t been great the last couple of weeks, sporting a relatively weak wRC+ of 78 and .128 ISO over the past 14 days. But that all changes tonight against LHP Kolby Allard. On the season, the splits against LHP are solid, with a team wOBA of .322, ISO of .180 and 105 wRC+, numbers that match well against Allard and his ERA and FIP — both north of 5.00. Plus, the wind is blowing out to right field in a hitter’s park, and the temperature is the highest of any game in the slate. We’re going to see some runs scored in Anaheim tonight, and I’m starting my stacks with Shohei Ohtani ($4,500), David Fletcher ($2,900), Jo Adell ($2,500) and Justin Upton ($2,700). Max Stassi ($2,900) is in play if he starts, and so is “Fabulous” Phil Gosselin ($2,300) if he’s high in the order.

Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

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Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Aces and Bases.  Today we have a massive 14 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through. 

My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day. 

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Brandon Woodruff ($10.6k) vs. San Francisco Giants – The Giants bats have been scuffling a bit of late and I’ll look to take advantage of that with an ace in Woodruff.  Over the past 30 days Woodruff has been pretty dominant. 

He has a 29% K rate and a 3.25 xFIP.  Batters have just a 22% hard hit rate against him over that stretch as well.  This is a match up that lines up really well for him too. 

The Giants should have 5 lefties in the lineup.  During the month of August Woodruff has a 36% K rate against lefties.  Really like Woodruff’s chances of having a solid night tonight.

Blake Snell ($9.4k) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – Dominant Snell is back in the picture.  After a pretty slow start to the year we’re back to seeing the Ace Snell.  Over the last 30 days he has a pretty insane 37% K rate. 

He’s faced the Diamondbacks twice over that stretchand has struck out 6 and 13.  There’s a little bit of a concern as he did throw a season high 122 pitches in his last outing so it’s possible that the Padres give him a bit of a shorter leash.  That said, the Padres blew their bullpen last night.  Look for the Snell to continue his dominant stretch.

Tarik Skubal ($9k) vs. Oakland Athletics – Skubal is essentially on part 4 of his season.  The first part was awful, the second part was dominant, and the third part was just ok.  He’s back into that dominant part with a 30% K rate over the past month. 

He has 4 straight starts of at least 33 FD points.  Those 4 outings were against teams that have been doing really well against lefties.  One of his biggest out pitches is his slider.  If it’s on tonight he has a really good chance of shutting down an A’s lineup that isn’t great against sliders.  Multiple hitters in this lineup have whiff rates greater than 30%. 

With Buehler’s price being over $11k tonight I have a really hard time using him against a solid Braves lineup.  Braves have been great against righties.  While Buehler should do a nice job of shutting them down, there’s a better chance of him having a non ceiling game than an actual ceiling game.  

MLB DFS: The Bats

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Keegan Akin – I’ll start this by saying that the Blue Jays have been pretty disappointing of late.  Over the past week they’ve scored greater than 3 runs only twice.  The good thing for us is that one was last night and they’ll be facing a brutal Orioles rotation and bullpen today and tomorrow. 

On the docket for the Blue Jays tonight is Akin.  Over the last month he’s allowing a 52% fly ball rate and a 30% hard hit rate.  Akin gives up pretty similar numbers to both sides of the plate so my focus is going to be on the guys that have been hitting lefties well. 

Semien ($4k) has a .273 ISO against lefties over the past 30 days and Hernandez ($3.7k) has a .318.  In a much smaller sample size due to injuries Springer ($3.8k) has an .818.  These 3 are my core tonight on FD.  

Kirk ($2.1k) is going to give us the cheap exposure to this lineup and he’s been pretty good against lefties.  On the year he has a .398 wOBA against lefties.  Blue Jays stand a chance to put up a big number tonight. 

Chicago White Sox vs. Bryce Wilson – Wilson is a low strike out arm that gives up a ton of contact, while also giving up a healthy amount of fly balls.  This is the type of pitcher that we attack in DFS. 

Wilson’s biggest weakness is lefties.  Over the past month they have a 47% fly ball rate while he’s only been able to strike out 13% of them.  The guy here I’m going to prioritize is Yasmani Grandal ($3.2k).  Since coming off a lengthy stay on the IL he’s been on a tear.  He has 3 homers in 3 games and 6 hits in just 12 AB. 

Yoan Moncada ($3.5k) is also another guy I’ll want to prioritize here.  He gets the platoon advantage and has also been hitting well.  Outside of the two guys that are hitting from the left side of the plate I’ll also look to fit in Abreu ($3.9k) and Robert ($4k)

Both guys are also super hot with OPS’s greater than 1.300 over the past weak and multiple barrels.  Only the Cubs have surrendered more batters to perfect lineups over the last month than the Pirates.  Look for that number to increase tonight as the White Sox put up a big number.  

Colorado Rockies vs. Jordan Lyles – I don’t often use Rockies outside of Coors because they are typically a much different team away vs. home.  That said, tonight they get to take on a pitcher in Lyles who is the epitome of a gas can. 

They will also provide something we need, value.  Lyles over the last month has been getting hammered by lefties.  They have a .375 ISO against him.  He’s given up a 51% fly ball rate and a 61% hard hit rate to them.  We attack Lyles with lefties. 

My focus here will be the bottom of the Rockies lineup.  Nunez ($2.1k) and Hillard ($2.4k) have both been crushing righties with ISO’s over .300 in August.  Both McMahaon ($3.2k) and Tapia ($2.5k) have wOBA’s over .350 against them in August. 

Rockies lefties are going to provide us the value we need to get a top pitcher and either bats from either the Blue Jays or White Sox. 

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

We have a slate loaded with pitching tonight.  It honestly feels like forever since we’ve had this many arms to choose from.  From a bats perspective my core will come from either the Blue Jays or White Sox as they both have great match ups.  I’ll look to Colorado to get some value as they get to take on Lyles tonight.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Aces and Bases.  Today we have a nice sized 13 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through. 

My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day.  We have a great slate lined up with solid options for pitching and stacking.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Max Scherzer ($10.6K) vs. Philadelphia Phillies – There isn’t much to say today to sell you on using Scherzer.  He proved me very wrong last time and showed that he is match up proof.  Scherzer dominated a very solid lineup in the Houston Astros. 

Today he faces off against a streaking Phillies team.  Hopefully the day off yesterday cools them down a bit.  On the year Mad Max has been great.  He has an elite 33% K rate and a 3.60 xFIP. 

Phillies are a familiar foe as he’s faced them a couple of times already during his Nationals days.  In those 2 outings he combined for 17 K’s.  Look for another solid performance out of him today.

Alex Wood ($8.6k) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – Wood has had a couple of rough outings in a row.  One vs. a very solid Astros lineup and one vs. these same Diamondbacks in Arizona.  The game against the Diamondbacks he had a string of bad luck in the game. 

He had an insanely high .500 BABIP and just a 64% LOB %.  The hard hit rate against him was just 35.7%.  A few of those hits don’t squeak through and we’re talking about a very different game. 

Dbacks haven’t been exactly crushing the ball of late.  Over the past week they have a 31% K rate with just 5 barrels.  I really like Wood’s chances of having a bounce back game today as he heads back home to San Francisco. 

Daniel Lynch ($6k) vs. New York Yankees – If you want to get a little crazy tonight, look no farther than Daniel Lynch.  Lynch is one of the Royals top pitching prospects on his second tour of duty.  The first tour did not go well as he looked over matched in his first 3 starts. 

His last 3 starts have been a completely different story.  Two of his last 3 starts have been outstanding.  One was against a streaking Tigers team and the last was against a tough White Sox lineup.  Even the middle start against Toronto he was able to limit damage and ended up with a QS. 

The Yankees have a tough lineup, but they also have a bunch of free swingers that have high K rates.  This is a very high risk, but equally high reward type of pick for tonight.  With a lot of the top pitchers in questionable match ups tonight, you could do a lot worse than Lynch.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Chicago White Sox  vs. Griffin Jax – For my primary stack tonight I’m going right back to the well.  The White Sox are healthy for the first time in months and they’re going to be a lineup that will do some damage night in and night out.  Up and down the lineup they have power and tonight they are facing a pitcher that has been skating by with some luck. 

Over the last 30 days he has an ERA of 1.88 but an xFIP and SIERA in the mid 5’s.  Any time I see a gap that big I automatically start to look why it’s there.  Three things that stick out are his low K rate of 15%, his LOB of 97%, and his near 53% fly ball rate.  I’m looking for some regression with him tonight. 

About a month ago Jax faced the White Sox and had a decent outing.  Not in the lineup were Cesar Hernandez ($3.2k)Eloy Jimenez ($3.4k), and Luis Robert ($2.7k).  The lineup he’s going to face tonight is significantly better. 

White Sox will see a lot of fastballs tonight as Jax throws it more than 50% of the time.  The guys on the team that have the best numbers vs. fastballs are Abreu ($3.7k)Goodwin ($2.5k), and JIminez.  I’ll be building my stack around those 3.  No hitter is hotter than Jimenez right now and you should prioritize fitting him in. 

Seattle Mariners vs. Kolby Allard – The Mariners tonight will be my top secondary stack.  They’re getting a match up vs. a pitcher in Allard who has been giving up an astronomical amount of hard contact.  In his last 24 innings of work he’s given up 14 barrels. 

He’s what we like to say as “wild in the zone”.  Hitters have a near 94% contact rate on his pitches in the zone.  Batters see his pitches well and until he figures out how to deceive batters, he’s going to continue to get drilled.  His power numbers against have actually been worse to lefties this year as his ISO jumps to .236 vs. “just” .178 vs. righties. 

My top player in this stack is going to be Kyle Seager ($3.6k).  Seager has a .271 ISO and .328 wOBA against lefties this year.  Other than his fastball, Allard throws a cutter more than 26% of the time.  Ty France ($3.1k) has a .731 slugging % and a .463 wOBA against cutters this year and will also be another piece I want from the Mariners. 

New York Mets vs. Paolo Espino – Mets are back home after an extremely embarrassing road trip.  This is their final “easy” match up until they face the Giants and Dodgers so I fully expect them to come out hungry.  The good thing for them is they are facing a pitcher that attackable in Espino. 

Over his last 22 innings he’s given up 5 homers and 9 barrels.  Epsino’s biggest struggles have come against righties with a .265 ISO and .338 wOBA.  My core here will be built around Pete Alonso ($3.8k) and JD Davis ($2.9k).  Davis has a .214 ISO and .414 wOBA against righties this year. 

Another guy I’ll look to here is Conforto ($2.6k).  He’s starting to show some signs of life in what’s been a poor campaign.  He has a 50% fly ball rate and 50% hard hit rate over the past week. 

Other offenses I like today the Tigers vs. Keegan Akin and the Pirates vs. J.A. Happ.    

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Pitching wise Scherzer is my priority tonight.  The rest of the expensive guys all have some risks tonight so if I don’t go with Scherzer I’ll drop down to either Alex Wood or drop all the way down to Lynch.  White Sox are my priority and I’ll make sure I have at least 3 of them in my lineup.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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