Chicago Bears

NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

I’m putting this in every article until folks listen: Do not play Showdown if you’re still building bankroll or you’re tilting from a bad main slate! This is nothing more than a way to have a little fun during the game and it shouldn’t be counted on for anything more than that. They are incredibly difficult to win.

Week 12 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.2 Ravens at Steelers:

Alright folks, before you take a look at any of the information that I’m about to give you be mindful of just how much can change between now and kickoff. This can not under any circumstances be a set and forget day. Additionally, I have heard news that JK Dobbins and Mark Ingram are eligible to return from the Covid-19 list BUT the information originated from Ian Rappaport and I have yet to get this information from the Ravens themselves. For those of you who do not know, I do not trust the accuracy of Ian’s reporting, he is more interested in being first than being correct.

Chalk: Benny Snell $13,200

Pivot: Chase Claypool $15,600

Contrarian #1: Gus Edwards $9,300

Contrarian #2: Robert Griffin III $12,600

Contrarian #3: Justice Hill $3,300 (If Dobbins and Ingram sit)/ Juju Smith-Shuster $14,400 (If they play)

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.2 Ravens at Steelers Notes:

Vegas: 41.5 Point total Pittsburgh: -10

This seems big to me even with all of the people missing for Baltimore. Divisional games in the AFC North are rarely blowouts and are almost always low scoring. I don’t see a game that I’m expecting the under to hit to spread out enough to make that -10 work for the Steelers.

Weather: Mid’s 30’s and minimal wind

Baltimore is a flat out mess right now and I can’t really blame Vegas for putting them as 10 point dogs in what looks to be an incredibly messy divisional matchup. In that regard I’m not surprised Benny Snell looks to be the massive chalk with the absence of James Conner. If for some reason you’re playing cash that is where I would start. I see a few different options for a pivot from the Snell chalk. First would be Chase Claypool. This guy has been an absolute monster in his first year and has seen no less than 8 targets in any of the last four games including five for 42 and a touchdown on nine targets against a healthy Ravens team in week 8 and the Ravens are much more vulnerable right now. If Mark Ingram and JK Dobbins end up confirmed out I think Gus Edwards will actually end up being the chalk but at this point we are up in the air and Gus smashed the Steelers averaging 5.4 yards per carry for 87 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries on a 32% snap share. Another option is Win Daily’s favorite guy Robert Griffin III. I’m not saying he’s Lamar Jackson but he is a capable, experienced backup that has the mobility to run the same style of offense so they won’t be sacrificing parts of their playbook when he is on the field, and if we are being honest with ourselves, there won’t be a passing drop-off from Jackson to Griffin this season. Lamar’s passing struggles have been well documented. My final play is based of people being out. If Dobbins and Ingram sit I am going to have a healthy amount Justice Hill. Reason being if Baltimore gets down big it won’t be Gus on the field, it will be Hill who is much better at catching the ball so I can run a Steelers heavy lineup and run it back with a Justin Tucker and Justice Hill for a 4-2 build on DraftKings. If every running back is a go I want to pivot over to the Pittsburg Side and take a shot on what might be a shockingly low owned Juju Smith-Shuster. No need to get in depth, Juju has largely disappointed for what was expected of him but his ceiling is MASSIVE and he might not get over 6% at captain today with all of the potential value captains.

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.2 Ravens at Steelers Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

As per usual, kickers are in play as well as both defenses. It’s a strange week so most of the flex plays could change on a moments notice.

Steelers: Defense, Dionte Johnson, Eric Ebron, Chris Boswell, Anthony McFarland Jr., Ben Roethlisberger

Ravens: Defense, Justin Tucker, Marquise Brown, Dez Bryant, Devin Duvernay, Miles Boykin

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.2 Ravens at Steelers . Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns:

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

I’m putting this in every article until folks listen: Do not play Showdown if you’re still building bankroll or you’re tilting from a bad main slate! This is nothing more than a way to have a little fun during the game and it shouldn’t be counted on for anything more than that. They are incredibly difficult to win.

Week 12 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown for 11.29 Bears at Packers:

Chalk: Aaron Jones $15,600

Pivot: Aaron Rodgers $17,100

Contrarian #1: Davante Adams $18,900

Contrarian #2: David Montgomery $13,200

Contrarian #3: Allen Robinson $15,000

Vegas: 44.5 Point total Packers: -8

Weather: Nothing major to report, 10-15mph wind, mid 30’s temp

Vegas is telling us threat they are expecting the Packers to smack the Bears around a bit with Green Bay being 8 point favorites. I’m inclined to agree. Rodgers has all of his weapons back and the Bears are now short Nick Foles and are turning back to Mitchell Trubisky. (update: Marquez Valdez Scantling had a mid week achilles injury and is questionable)

Our models have Aaron Jones as the big chalk at captain tonight at around 19 percent and for good reason. As eight point favorites you would expect a heavy dose of Jones and Jamal Williams to round out the end of what I would expect to be a sloppy offensive outing from the Bears who have the most inept offense in the NFL. Technically Davante Adams is projected as the second highest but I think the better pivot would be to Aaron Rodgers. Aaron has every weapon at his disposal tonight (update: Marquez Valdez Scantling had a mid week achilles injury and is questionable) and while I don’t think it’s possible to stop Davante they may be able to slow him just enough to make that $18,900 price tag too steep of a price. I am and always will be a Matt Nagy hater, I’ve made it clear that I think his play calling is stupid. He runs more gadget plays than normal plays. But, if he can get out his way and actually attack the Green Bay weakness which has been for years their run defense the have a narrow path to keeping this close which would make David Montgomery an intriguing captain play. I would expect his ownership to be under 5% at captain tonight. Likely won’t pay off but all you need is a shot in showdown. Rounding out my captain spot is Allen Robinson just due to pure talent. He’s in such a horrible position as a receiver but he keeps producing. He’s gonna be behind the eight ball tonight though as he gets the Jaire Alexander treatment tonight and there aren’t many players who can do anything with that but if we’re expecting the Bears to play from behind he’ll get plenty of chances to break free.

Stoweby’s Showdown for 11.29 Bears at Packers Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

As per usual, kickers are in play. If I were to roll a defense tonight it would be Green Bay considering who is throwing the ball. It’s going to be interesting to see if Mitchell can get through his reads to his second and third receivers.

Packers: Allen Lazard, Jamal Williams, Defense, Robert Tonyan, Mason Crosby

Bears: Mitchell Trubisky, Jimmy Graham, Darnell Mooney, Cairo Santos, Cordarrelle Patterson, Anthony Miller

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Stoweby’s Showdown for 11.29 Bears at Packers . Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!