The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Thursday showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the first Week 5 NFL DFS contests!
Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns
DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.
My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.
If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.
Let’s get to the game!
Week 5 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
Chalk: Tom Brady (DK $16,800, FD $15,000)
Pivot: Ronald Jones (DK $11,100, FD
Contrarian #1: Nick Foles (DK $15,000, FD $14,000) $10,500)
Contrarian #2: Allen Robinson (DK $15,900, FD $11,500)
The chalk – and what should probably be HEAVY chalk – is Tom Brady, in part because he’s Tom Brady and he’s the GOAT, and also because the Bucs are lacking their top WR in Chris Godwin (out), Mike Evans is questionable and Scotty Miller is on the probable side of questionable, the plan being Evans will test his ankle in pre-game workouts to determine if he plays.
If he spreads it around and the Bucs attack what has been a relatively solid pass Bears defense through the air, he’ll still accrue enough points to justify having him as CPT. I think he makes more sense from a GPP perspective as a flex, but in cash games we can almost guarantee he’ll find his way to the top in most of the builds.
My favorite pivot might just be Ronald Jones – though we know he’s a risky GPP play given his history of highly dynamic fantasy scoring. The Bucs will most certainly give him touches, and they’ve been more creative with their offense since Brady came aboard. I’m less interested in targeting one particular Bucs WR given the injuries, but they’re certainly all viable flex plays.
Nick Foles is certainly a risk as well but could be the contrarian play that breaks the slate. Unlike Brady’s he’s got a stable of talented, capable and healthy pass catchers in WR Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller and TE Jimmy Graham, and the Bears have been using David Montgomery is little bit in the passing game. If there’s a piece of the Bucs defense I don’t trust, it’s the secondary, but their front seven is one of the best in football.
As usual, we could see kickers come into play if drives are stymied as they get into the red zone tonight, but there’s no need to use them in the top spot. Fitting the main stars isn’t all that difficult given the softer pricing for this showdown.
Week 5 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)
Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together
DON’T: Be afraid to take a bunch of Bears against this tough Bucs defense. Don’t get me wrong – I’ll have builds that toss in the occasional Bucs DST as a flex, but the trio of Foles/Graham/Robinson has as much upside as Brady/Gronk/Evans given the injuries plaguing the Bucs.
DO: Consider Mike Evans if he’s active. Even at 80% he’s an excellent red zone target that Brady loves.
DON’T: Be afraid to leave money on the table. Low-cost options like Cameron Brate, Scotty Miller and even Montgomery have high-enough upside that they could have a bigger impact the higher salary guys you could squeeze in in certain builds.
Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
- Tom Brady
- Ronald Jones
- Nick Foles
- Allen Robinson
- Mike Evans (if active)
- Jimmy Graham
- Scotty Miller
- Anthony Miller
- David Montgomery
- Cameron Brate
- Ryan Succop
- Bucs DST
- Rob Gronkowski
- Cairo Santos
- K’Shawn Vaughn
- Cordarrelle Patterson
- Darnell Mooney (questionable)
- Ted Ginn, Jr.
- Bears DST
- Javon Wims
