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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Tuesday – 08/24

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Aces and Bases. Tonight we have a massive 14 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Corbin Burnes ($11.5k) vs. Cincinnati Reds – No pitcher on tonight’s slate has the type of upside that Burnes has. Over the past month he has 2 starts of 70 FD points or greater with one of those being against this Reds team. While I don’t expect another 70 point performance today, I do expect him to have another one of his solid outings.

His metrics over the past 30 days have been great. He has just a 2.94 xFIP, a 29% K rate, a 36.2% CSW, and just a 21.5% hard hit rate. He’s been getting it done. If we look out even farther Burnes has given up more than 1 ER just once over the past two months. He is the top pitcher tonight and I don’t think it’s close.

German Marquez ($9k) vs. Chicago Cubs – I’m willing to use below average pitchers vs. the Cubs at this point. Marquez is far from a below average pitcher.

Senzatela dominated the Cubs last night with 6 strike outs in 6 innings. Marquez > Senzatela. The projected lineup that Marquez is going to face tonight is just not good. They have a 29% K rate vs. righties over the pats month and if we look at the power numbers, they aren’t their either. Their ISO over the same period is just .125 against righties.

With Marquez pitching there’s no reason to overthink this one. Look for Marquez to dominate a lineup that will be a punching bag for the rest of the year.

Tanner Houck ($6.7k) vs. Minnesota Twins – Houck has 4 straight starts of at least 6 K’s. During that stretch he faced the Yankees, the Blue Jays twice, and the Rays once. So pretty solid lineups. Tonight he gets to take on a lesser opponent in the Twins.

The Twins over the past week have struck out more than 26% of the time and haven’t been doing much in terms of power. Houck’s salary has not yet caught up to his production and it’s something I’ll want to take advantage of.

In his last 16 innings of work he has a 33% K rate and a 14.9% swinging strike rate. Those are pretty good numbers for a mid $8k range pitcher, let alone a pitcher a under $7k.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Los Angeles Angels vs. Spencer Watkins – The Orioles turn to Spencer Watkins to stop the bleeding. They’ve lost 18 in a row and with Watkins on the mound there’s a solid chance they get to 19 tonight. Over the past month Watkins has just been dreadful.

He owns a 5.72 xFIP over that period and a 52% hard hit rate. Over his last 6 straight he hasn’t had a single start where he hasn’t given up less than 4 earned runs. He’s a low strike out pitcher that gives up a ton of contact. Let’s attack him!

On the season he’s actually been worse against righties as they’ve tagged him for a .228 ISO and .380 wOBA. That said, lefties have started to get to him over the last 30 days. It’s all going to start with Ohtani ($4.5k) tonight.

He’s by far their best hitter and there’s a very real chance that he leads off the game with a homer against the warehouse tonight. Watkins is mostly a fastball pitcher. He’s been throwing it more than 45% of the time to both sides of the plate.

My hope is that Stassi ($2.8k) plays tonight because he’s been crushing fastballs this year. He owns a .507 slugging % and a 52% hard hit rate against them this year. Another guy I’ll look to grab is Brandon Marsh ($2.5k) as he’s been swinging a hot bat.

Over the past week he has a .966 OPS and a 160 wRC+. Those 3 are my top targets here but this entire lineup is in play against a bad pitcher and a bad bullpen.

Boston Red Sox vs. Griffin Jax – If we look Jax’s last 30 days there’s a huge gap between his ERA and xFIP/SIERA at close to 3 runs. Anytime I see that type of difference there are few things I look at.

First thing is their LOB %. Jax’s is at 91.7%. Next I’ll look at their contact rate, 82% for Jax. Then I’ll look at his hard hit rate, 41%. So we have a pitcher giving up a ton of hard contact that’s leaving a large amount of runners on base.

At some point, Jax’s luck is going to run out and regression is going to hit him. Tonight should be the night against a potent Red Sox lineup. The two guys in this lineup that really have my intrigue are Devers ($4k) and Schwarber ($3.7k).

Both guys have slaughtered right handed pitching this year with ISO’s around .330 mark. They should both see a ton of fastballs tonight as Jax throws it more than 44% of the time to lefties.

Schwarber has a .673 slugging % against fastballs on the year and Devers isn’t too far behind at .500. They will be my foundation to the Red Sox stack. All other Red Sox will be in play as they should put up a huge number.

Atlanta Braves vs. Andrew Heaney – Heaney is a favorite of mine to pick on because he gives up such a large number of fly balls. Over the past 30 days his fly ball rate is at 55%.

Anytime you give up that many fly balls you’re bound to give up some homers. And that’s just what Heaney has done. In his last 28 innings of work he’s given up 10 homers.

Heaney has been pretty horrendous to both sides of the plate as a member of the Yankees so the entire lineup is in play. The priority here will be Soler ($3.5k) as he has just crushed lefties over the last month. His ISO is at .605. He’s a boom or bust pick though due to his 27.5% K rate. If he connects on a pitch from Heaney tonight, there’s a very real chance it leaves the park.

Other guys I’ll look to get into this stack are Riley ($4.1k) and Swanson ($3.8k). They’ll see an onslaught of fastballs tonight and they each have slugging %’s over .600 on the year against them.

Freeman ($4.2k) is a possible way to differentiate your stack as he almost always goes under owned against lefties. He shouldn’t be as he has a .352 wOBA against them this year.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

We have a decent amount of pitching options tonight and I’ve provided my favorite in the high, medium, and low price ranges. The game in Baltimore has the potentially to be a high scoring affair.

While my favorite side is the Angels side, don’t’ sleep on the O’s as they’re somewhat hungry and they are facing their former teammate in Bundy.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 8/21 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 4 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s six-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 6:40PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

The biggest weather threat is in Baltimore for the Braves-Orioles, and while we can certainly target hitters for this game, I’m not interested in either pitching option. Pricing is really tight on FD, much unlike the free squares for Colorado on DK, and it feels like all the best hitters on the slate are $3,500 and up — but we have some ways to attack this in GPPs and give ourselves a great shot at spiking a top finish.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Eduardo Rodriguez ($9,800)

It may seem crazy to say given his dynamic range of outcomes, but Rodriguez facing the strikeout-prone Rangers is the clear ace of the slate, especially with how much weight FD gives Ks and just how iffy the next two options (Joe Musgrove and Aaron Nola) have been over their past few starts. I love a good risk-reward pick as much as the next guy, but we just haven’t seen enough from the starting pitchers in the PHI-SD game to warrant using them at those prices. Rodriguez, though, gets a great spot against a Rangers team that is dead last in wOBA (.284) vs. LHP. He has 10K upside in this matchup and should get the requisite run support to notch a W. The only problem in rostering him comes when it’s time to stack up some hitters, but we do have some great value options on the Cardinals (more on that later).

Best GPP Value: J.A. Happ ($8,100)

The crafty veteran lefty is definitely someone that we could have looked to attack with right-handed mashers earlier in the season, but he’s completely turned around his season this August. Since he was traded to St. Louis, Happ’s allowed just three runs over 16.2 innings (1.62 ERA) with an 11:5 K:BB in his three outings. He’s sporting a dynamite .251 wOBA against opposing hitters in that stretch, and there’s nobody on this Pirates lineup that really scares me. He’s looking at around 25-30 as a floor with 45+ upside at a price point where nobody else has that kind of ceiling. He’s worth the investment and leaves $3,300+ per hitter — which helps us get the guys we need.

The other GPP Play: Wade Miley ($8,800)

Nobody likes playing soft-tossing Wade Miley, but he’s probably going to be relatively popular on this slate because he draws the Marlins, a lineup that’s chock full of some guys that aren’t necessarily household names. In fact, his popularity could dictate a few GPP stacks of the Marlins hitters just because it’ll be easy to get a portion of our builds way ahead of the projected ownership for guys like Lewis Brinson, Jesus Aguilar and Brian Anderson. But in my GPP builds where I’m not stacking Marlins, he’s a viable value option. I just wouldn’t exceed 20-25% with him if we’re doing 10+ lineups. He’s another guy with a 25-30 point floor and 45+ upside, but like I said — he’ll be pretty chalky, and if we’re looking for leverage we’re looking elsewhere.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Boston Red Sox

With all due respect to the game in Coors and the Braves against Matt Harvey in a game that’s likely to get pretty wet, my top stack is going to be the Red Sox against Jordan Lyles, who’s been dreadful. Lyles sports a .355 wOBA, .207 ISO, 40+% hard contact rate, 1.7 HR/9, a miniscule 16% K rate, a hilariously high 11% BB rate and a 49% fly ball rate. The Sox are going to mash, and getting exposure to their 1-7 hitters is a priority. The top four among them would be J.D. Martinez ($4,000), Rafael Devers ($4,200), Xander Bogaerts ($4,100) and Hunter Renfroe ($3,600) — who’s having a career year and has greatly improved his production vs. RHP. I also like leadoff man Kike Hernandez ($3,600), Kyle Schwarber ($3,700) and Alex Verdugo ($3,000) and, if he gets the start, a dirt-cheap Travis Shaw ($2,300). I’ll be mixing and matching Sox builds in just about all of my GPP entries, except for the random couple where I get some Coors exposure — which I don’t think is a huge priority on this slate based on FD’s inflated pricing. There’s plenty of value in that Colorado lineup on DK, but it’s cost prohibitive on FD where we need to save a few bucks.

GPP Value Stack: St. Louis Cardinals

The Cards are the clear value play that allows us to fit Rodriguez and/or the necessary Red Sox bats. Tommy Edman ($3,000), Tyler O’Neill ($3,200), Paul Goldschmidt ($3,800) and Nolan Arenado ($4,300) are the best four bats, but we might not be able to get Goldy and Arenado in there because of their hefty prices — which is fine in GPPs since we have more options in Paul DeJong ($2,700) and Harrison Bader ($2,900). Yadier Molina is really inexpensive at $2,500, and he’s locked into that No. 5 spot right in the middle of all the action.

Contrarian GPP Stack: Miami Marlins

We’ll start with the guys I mentioned earlier — Aguilar ($2,900), Brinson ($2,800) and Anderson ($2,900) and throw in Miguel Rojas ($2,800) for good measure. Wade Miley limits hard contact, but this is a bunch that could fluster him by just getting the ball in play, and relying on the “bloop and a blast” method. Again — this is a contrarian mini-stack not to be used in more than 20-25% of your GPP builds if you’re multi-entering. Jazz Chisholm, Jr. ($3,200) and Jesus Sanchez ($2,300) are also options.

Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

4 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Thursday – 7/01

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Thursday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have 2 slates of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through. 4 games at 1pm and a 7 game main slate.

Both slates today see some risky pitching options. With risky pitching options comes offenses in some really nice spots. My goal on both slates will be to provide with some aces and some bats to help you get into the green and score a takedown.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Early Slate

The early slate today is a very risky slate. 3 of the 4 games have weather concerns, with 2 being serious enough where this could end up being a 2 game.

Pitching wise you should lock inJose Berrios ($10.5k) and move on. He gets a good match-up against a White Sox team that has been struggling over the past couple of weeks. Yes, they put up a big number but it was against 2 pitchers that probably shouldn’t be in the majors in Ober and Shoemaker.

Carlos Rodon ($11k) is the best pitcher on the slate talent wise but he’s taking on a projected Twins lineup that has only a 21% K rate on the year to lefties and a .313 wOBA. I don’t really like the match-up for him.

Hitting wise we need to be a little different than our opponents as it’s such a small slate. I’m going to do that by looking at the Seattle Mariners against Hyun Jin Ryu. Outside of his 1 start against the Orioles, Ryu has been pretty bad over the past month. His swinging strike rate is sitting at 8% and he’s giving up about 20% more hard contact than soft contact. The bats I’d focus on there are Haniger ($3k) and France ($2.7k).

The next spot I’d look at are the Boston Red Sox against Kris Bubic. Bubic has really been struggling. In his last 18 innings of work he’s given up 8 homers. He’s not missing bats and he’s giving up a ton of hard contact. His xFIP over the past 30 days is sitting right around 5. He’s actually been worse this season against lefties so we don’t need to avoid guys like Devers or Verdugo. The 3 guys I’m most focused Bogaerts ($4k), Martinez ($4.3k), and Renfroe ($3.5k). All three of these guys have ISO’s greater than .240 over the past 3 seasons when facing lefties. They smash lefties and Bubic is a smashable lefty.

I have very low confidence the Yankees/Angles game plays today. If it does, both teams would make great stacks as Canning and Montgomery have been pretty bad of late.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Jacob Degrom ($11.5K) vs. Atlanta Braves – Degrom is hands down the best pitcher on the slate. He has a staggering 42% K rate over the past 30 days with a 21% swinging strike rate. I don’t need to sell you on his talent. My only concern with Degrom is that he hasn’t been going deep into the games recently. Due to injuries he’s had several outings cut short.

The good news is that his arm hasn’t been taxed that much. He hasn’t thrown more than 90 pitches in a game since April. With the Mets blowing through their bullpen in games recently do they give him a longer leash than they have? I hope so.

Corbin Burnes ($10.6K) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates – As Adam pointed out in the Starting Rotation today, the spin rate monsters have caught up to Burnes. He’s seen a pretty significant drop in spin rate with his cutter. With that being his main pitch we’ll need to use him with caution. That said, he still has an elite 35% K rate over the past 30 days.

While the Pirates aren’t a high strike out team (their projected lineup today has a 19% K rate vs. righties), they’re also not hitting for much power. Against righties this season they have just a .655 OPS and .121 ISO. Those are pretty bad numbers. Burnes is my clear #2 behind Degrom.

Ian Anderson ($8.4k) vs. New York Mets – While the Mets are getting close to fully healthy on the offensive side, they’ve still been struggling to put up runs. They’ve also been K’ing a bunch. Over the past week they have a 28% K rate. Until they show consistently they are a productive offense, I think we can attack them.

Today we’ll attack them with Anderson who has been solid of late. Over the past 30 days he’s sporting a 3.24 xFIP with a 27% K rate. All signs point to him having a solid outing tonight. He’s not in the same ballpark as Degrom and Burnes, but he’s a whole lot cheaper and provides some upside tonight.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Will Crowe – I’m going to continue playing the Brewers until FD raises their prices and everyone else decides to join the party. They are one of the hottest offenses in the game right now and tonight they get a match-up against a pitcher in Crowe who has been giving up a ton of hard contact.

In his last 18 innings pitched he’s given up 6 homers to go along with just an 8% swinging strike rate. Crowe’s been getting hit pretty hard by both sides of the plate so we can focus on the entire lineup.

The guys I’m focusing on tonight with Brewers will be Urias ($3k), Adames ($3.1k), Narvaez ($2.6k), and Peterson ($2.4k). Hiura ($3.2k) is also an interchangeable part in this stack. All have been extremely productive during this run the Brewers have been on. As a team they have 18 barrels over the past week in just 176 AB’s.

San Francisco Giants vs. Merrill Kelly – Yes, Kelly has been lights out the last 2 games. Prior to that though he had been brutal. With a match-up against the Giants today we should see Kelly come back down to earth. The Giants have been very strong against righties this year with a near .200 ISO and an OPS sitting at .758. Giants should throw out 5 lefties tonight.

In looking at Kelly’s pitch mix he’ll mostly throw a 91 MPH fastball and mix in his change-up. This is a combo that Giants lefties hit very well. My focus will be on Yastrzemski ($2.9k), Dickerson ($2.2k), and Crawford ($2.8k). They are all cheap and have ISO’s greater than .200 to Kelly’s pitch mix.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Antonio Senzatela – There’s weather risk in this game, but it’s Coors and I do want a piece of it tonight. Over the last month Senzatela has been giving up a ton of hard contact. It’s sitting close to 43%. This is something I’ll want to exploit tonight.

He’s been somewhat of a reverse splits pitcher as the majority of the hard contact is coming from righties as they have a 48% hard hit rate against him this year. Cardinals have a predominantly right handed lineup so this lines up very well for them, and very poorly for Senzatela.

He throws his 94 MPH fastball more than 50% of the time. Carlson ($3.3k) and O’Neill ($3.8k) both have ISO’s greater than .300 against this pitch type. Plugging in Goldschmidt ($4.1k) and Arenado ($4.2k) may prove to be tough because of salary, but if I had to pick between the two, I’d side withArenado.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Between the day slate and the night slate we’re going to need to be prepared to closely monitor weather. There’s rain everywhere today and there are a handful of games that are both at risk of a delay and postponement.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green tonight!

4 years ago 0 comments

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 5/22 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 4 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s six-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

No weather concerns of note, so everyone should technically be “in play” from a DFS perspective.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Walker Buehler ($10,500)

I’m not sure how many folks will get thrown off by the stiff winds blowing out to center in San Francisco tonight, but that stadium minimizes wind impact with its design — and Buehler is still the top ace of the slate. There’s really no close second, and I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention that Buehler’s ZIPS projections anticipate a lot more Ks over the next few starts. His talent level is head and shoulders better than choices B and C tonight and the run support he should get with his Dodgers facing the Giants’ Matt Wisler and some bullpen arms is enough to make him the safest option on the board.

Best GPP Value: Chris Bassitt ($8,800)

The A’s are a road favorite against an Angels team missing Mike Trout — the anchor of their lineup and one of the main reasons to fear that team. Over the past seven days we’ve seen the Angels team K rate increase about three percentage points, and while Bassitt isn’t known as a high-strikeout pitcher, his K/9 has increased to 9.62 this season, and his walk rate is the lowest its been in his seven-year MLB career. There isn’t an EASY value on tonight’s slate, but if I had to pick a guy who could surprise and break through with moderately low ownership on a day with limited options, Bassitt is the guy.

Contrarian GPP Value: Robbie Ray ($9,100)

Ray has been excellent this season, and while the minor league park the Blue Jays are hosting games in is quite the bandbox, Ray’s K is up a percentage point and a half to 28.9% this season. It’s not quite where it was during his DFS heyday in 2017 — when it was a whopping 32.8 and he posted a 1.15 WHIP and 3.72 FIP — but Ray is throwing a lot of good fastballs again, limiting hard contact this season and getting his WHIP down to an impressive 1.17 through seven starts. The Rays strike out at the fourth-highest rate among MLB teams and that’s exactly the type of thing we’re looking for on FanDuel, where efficiency matters a lot less than notching strikeouts. Adam Strangis also points out in his 5/22 Starting Rotation piece that they’re especially bad against lefties. Nathan Eovaldi ($7,200) also makes sense as an off-the-wall, high-risk contrarian play against Philadelphia. The Phillies have the second-highest team strikeout rate in baseball, but Eovaldi might end up being more popular than Ray because of the salary difference.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Boston Red Sox vs. PHI RHP Spencer Howard

The Red Sox continue to mash and represent the safest stack of the 5/22 MLB DFS slate. They also boast one of the higher projected team run totals and have a 2-5 stack that rivals any in the bigs at the moment. Alex Verdugo is out today (hamstring) but Xander Bogaerts ($3,800), J.D. Martinez ($4,300) and Rafael Devers ($3,800) should all be rostered confidently. It’s an expensive stack that will probably need some value to offset that type of spending. Value options for your fourth hitter on Boston include Kike Hernandez ($3,200) — who has 2B/OF positional flexibility — Christian Vazquez ($2,500), and sluggers Bobby Dalbec ($2,400) and Hunter Renfroe ($2,200)

Value Stack: San Diego Padres vs. SEA LHP Justus Sheffield

The Padres aren’t normally a value play as a team stack, but Eric Hosmer is just $2,700 and Fernando Tatis Jr. ($4,500) is the only real spend-up hitter we’ll encounter here. The rest of my preferred stack includes Manny Machado ($3,200) and Tommy Pham ($2,100). Pham’s price is way too low given his upside and the fact that that his offense came alive for 34.2 FanDuel points last night. Right handed Austin Nola ($2,900) is also an option, and I would prefer leadoff hitter Trent Grisham ($3,400) to Jake Cronenworth ($3,000) since the former is better vs. lefties and the latter sometimes gets a day off against southpaws anyway — but Grisham is nursing a heel injury that had him removed in the fifth inning against Seattle yesterday.

Contrarian Stack: Oakland Athletics vs. LAA LHP Patrick Sandoval

It’s difficult to say just how many innings Sandoval will pitch tonight, but the A’s are better against LHP this season and their productive core of Mark Canha $3,100), Ramon Laureano ($3,400) and Matt Chapman ($2,700) could get some early scoring off the mediocre southpaw. I’m fine adding Matt Olson ($3,400) to the mix or even take a shot on Seth Brown ($2,200), who homered a couple games ago and offers some great value.

Good luck, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

4 years ago 0 comments

MLB Premium

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Thursday 5/20

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Thursday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have 2 four game slates of MLB DFS to navigate through on Fanduel. And navigating is absolutely what we’ll need to do.

Pitching on both slates today leaves a lot to be desired and no one could be deemed ‘safe’. There are no clear cut aces and some bombshells out there that we’ll need to be careful of.

With that being said, let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Early Slate Aces

Domingo German ($9k) vs. Texas Rangers – We saw what Kluber did last night to this team. The Rangers for the season have not been good against righties. They have a 27% K rate, a .154 ISO, and .697 OPS. They are attackable.

German is a model of consistency. He has 5 straight starts of 6 k’s. On a day like today where pitching options are limited, if we can get another 6k’s out of German and get the QS bonus we should be extremely pleased. Both are very attainable.

Tyler Mahle ($9.9k) vs. San Francisco Giants – Mahle has been good, but not great. For the year he has a 29.5% K rate and is facing off against a Giants team that is K’ing at a 28.6% clip against righties. The Giants do have some pop against righties this season with a .179 ISO.

Mahle faced the Giants earlier this year and did have some success with 7 punch outs and only 1 ER. I’m not a huge fan of the pitching environment as it should be about 80 degrees at first pitch and GAB can be a launching pad when it gets warm but I don’t think Mahle will kill you today. Since our options are limited, he’s in play.

Rich Hill ($9.3k) vs. Baltimore Orioles – I should preface this choice with saying that Orioles have been pretty good against lefties this year. They aren’t K’ing much and have pretty decent power numbers. As a team they have a .754 OPS and .328 wOBA against lefties.

Not something we’d normally pick on. I’m going here more for pitch selection. Hill is mostly a curveball pitcher. Looking at the lineup they’ll probably throw out only Austin Hays has a whiff rate less than 30% and that’s an extremely small sample size. This team also doesn’t generate much power vs. the curveball. If Hill goes with a curveball heavy game plan today he should find success.

MLB DFS: The Early Slate Bats

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Dean Kremer – Sorry Dean, today’s not going to be fun for you. White Sox vs. lefties, Tampa Bay Rays vs. righties. For the season the Rays have .173 ISO and wRC+ of 111 against righties. They’re facing off against a pitcher that has given up 8 homers in only 31 innings of work.

It should be in the mid 80’s here in Baltimore today and balls fly out of Camden when it’s warm. There’s no reason to get fancy here with no priced up starters. Randy Arozarena ($3k), Austin Meadows ($3.3k), JI-Man Choi ($3.3k), and Brandon Lowe ($3.1k) are all way too cheap for the match-up.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Johnny Cueto – Cueto hasn’t been bad this year. He’s sporting a 3.65 xFIP. His last two starts however have seen a downward trend. He gave up 8 hits in only 3 IP against the Padres and then 8 hits in only 4 IP against the Pirates. Father time catching up with Cueto? Certainly possible.

Reds have been great this season against righties. They have a team OPS of .768, wOBA of .336, and ISO of .180. All signs point the Reds putting up a big number today.

Chicago Cubs vs. Joe Ross – Ross has 2 outings this year where he’s given up 8 runs or more. He has the propensity to give up a big game. Of all the pitchers on the early slate today, he has the highest xFIP on the season at 4.8.

While the Cubs aren’t the Cubs of old, I still like them today. Here’s why. Ross mostly throws a sinker, 43% of the time to righties and 38% to lefties. Up and down the lineup we have guys on the Cubs who have had success against this pitch. Especially Joc Pederson ($2.4k) and Ian Happ ($2.8k). Both have wOBA’s over .450 to this pitch from righties.

MLB DFS: The Early Slate Wrap Up

Go light. That’s all I have to say. The goal for pitching on this slate will be to find the guy w/ the safest floor who also allows for upside. I think we have that in German.

MLB DFS: The Main Slate Aces

If you thought pitching was suspect on the early slate, wait until you see the main slate!

Vince Velasquez ($7.9k) vs. Miami Marlins – He’s probably going to be the popular choice tonight. Marlins are not a lineup that scares most and with Velasquez we have a pitcher that has upside with a near 29% K rate.

Marlins are K’ing 26.7% of the time vs. righties on the year and their power numbers are pretty low with a .125 ISO. With limited options on the slate, Velasquez is going to be the “safest” option. I say that as I’m gritting my teeth.

Sandy Alcantara ($9.3k) vs. Philadelphia Phillies – Yes, Sandy gave up 8 ER in 1 IP last outing. It was against the Dodgers so I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt that it was the outlier in what has been a pretty good campaign.

For the year, Alcantara has a 3.74 xFIP and 14.4% whiff rate. The Phillies, like their opponent, have struggled vs. righties this year. They have a 26% K rate and .141 ISO. While this lineup has some scary bats in Harper, Hoskins, and Cutch to an extent, they’ve largely under-performed this year and because of that I’m OK with attacking them.

Drew Smyly ($7.3k) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates – I’m sticking with the first two pitchers tonight, but if you need a cheaper arm you could do worse than Smyly.

After a rough start to the year Smyly has shown some life in his last 2 starts. Two straight QS and 4 k’s in each. He’s not going to win you a GPP (crazier things have happened this year though), but with the match-up against the Pirates tonight he should do well enough to keep you above the cash line.

MLB DFS: The Main Slate Bats

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Merrill Kelly – Dodgers somewhat disappointed last night, scoring 3 late runs and not a whole lot of offense. That should change tonight. They get to face off against Kelly who has one of the highest xFIP’s on the slate. He’s giving up a ton of hard contact at 40% and not missing many at bats with a low whiff rate of 7.8%. His low 90’s fastball should not hold up well against this lineup.

With pitching being on the cheaper side tonight, we shouldn’t struggle to make a solid lineup with Mookie Betts ($4.4k), Max Muncy ($3.9k), and Justin Turner ($3.7k). All should do some serious damage tonight to Kelly’s pitch profile.

Boston Red Sox vs. Steven Matz – It’s crazy to think that Matz has the lowest xFIP on the slate. For the most part, he’s been pretty good this year. He’s had a couple of rough outings this season and those were all against teams that do really well against lefties. Nationals, Oakland, and Houston.

In Boston, we have a team that dominates lefties. To the tune of a .772 OPS and just a 19.4% K rate. On paper, you can’t ask for a better match-up. Matz predominantly throws his sinker to both righties and lefties. Enrique Hernandez ($2.7k), JD Martinez ($4.3k), Hunter Renfroe ($2.5k), and Xander Bogaerts ($3.6k) all have a ton of success against this pitch from lefties. This should be a tough match-up for Matz today.

Atlanta Braves vs. Wil Crowe – Crowe hasn’t been blown up yet so far this year. It’s coming folks, and I want to be a part of it. We have a pitcher in Crowe that doesn’t miss many at bats with a whiff rate of only 8.4%. Of the contact the he gives up it’s, 88% of the time it’s either hard or medium contact. With giving up so much contact, and in that range of hard to medium it’s only a matter of time before things go south, and really south.

The Braves present that match-up tonight. We’ve documented their struggles against lefties, but against righties they’ve been pretty damn good. They have a .191 ISO and .737 OPS. I smell a Ronald Acuna ($4.4k) lead-off homer tonight. If you aren’t going full stack on the Braves I really do love a 1-2 combo with Acuna and Freddie Freeman ($4.1k) tonight. Both profile really well against Crowe.

MLB DFS: The Main Slate Wrap-up

Offense should rule the night. Half the teams tonight have really solid match-ups and should put up big numbers. With no expensive pitchers, we should be able to pay up for any bat that we want.

Good luck today and tonight and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Sunday Funday, 5/16

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Sunday Funday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a nice sized 10 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel and that’s where our focus will be.

Today’s stales is void of any true ace, but because of match-ups there are a handful of pitchers that should perform close to Ace status. At first glance, this looks to be a really fun slate as there are a few different paths we can go

With that being said, let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Robbie Ray ($8k) vs. Philadelphia Phillies – If you’ve read my articles this year, you’ll know my affinity for Ray. He’s completely changed his game plan this season and it’s working out great for him.

Ray so far this year has been a different pitcher. He’s throwing his fastball far more than ever in his career and his slider less than he has in years. This has helped him with his control which has always been his biggest issue. Walks equal more runners on, which in turn opened him up for big innings. His BB/9 is at 2.6 which is by far his lowest of his career.

Now let’s get to why this is a good match up today. Phillies for the season have a near 30% K rate and just a .142 ISO against southpaws. We saw in the last week what lefties can do to them. They made Jon Lester and Patrick Corbin look like Cy Young Candidates. There is a strong chance that Realmuto misses this one which would even more solidify this play.

With all this in mind, my article is for GPP’s. Ray is, and always will be, a stereotypical GPP play. Every time out he has boom or bust potential. Ray is never 100% safe but I really like his chances today.

Huascar Ynoa ($8.4k) vs. Milwaukee Brewers – While there is currently no line on this game, I fully expect the Braves to be heavily favored. Brewers have really struggled this season. Against righties they have a 26.3% K rate and very low power numbers. In the last 10 days they’ve only scored more than 3 runs twice. This is just a very watered down lineup that doesn’t produce.

Today they face off against a pitcher that is rolling. He’s scored 30 or more points in 6 of his 7 starts this season with the last 3 all over 40. While I wouldn’t say that his 28% K rate is elite, it’s definitely well above average. Especially for this pitchers on this slate. Ynoa’s main pitch his slider. If we look at the lineup of the Brewers, this is a pitch that they struggle with. I talk about pitchers having ceiling game opportunities. Today’s match-up with the Brewers provides that.

Alex Wood ($7.5k) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates – This is probably going to be the chalky play due to price and match-up. While I wouldn’t say the Pirates strike out at a high pace vs. lefties, we don’t need many K’s from Wood today due to his price.

I honestly have no clue what happened with his price. In his last outing he scored 49 points and was $8.9k. They dropped his price to $7.5k in a match-up that should be a breeze. Our friends over at DK have him priced accurately at $9.4k.

Wood for the season has a respectable 25% K rate. His ability to limit hard contact (24.3%) and extreme GB rate (63.9%) lead me to believe this is probably the safest play on the board. Especially at his price point.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chase Anderson – Anderson has not been good this season. He’s pitching to a 5.23 ERA and a 5.25 xFIP. Rarely do you find an xFIP and ERA match like this when they’re over 5. Typically there’s a variance. It means we know that Anderson is trash and we should take advantage of it.

Toronto is a right handed heavy lineup. Anderson is a reverse splits pitcher who is giving up a slugging percentage nearly 100 points higher this season to righties than he is lefties. His main repertoire will be his 4 seamer and change up. It’s a pitch profile that the Blue Jays should handle and handle very well. With pitching so cheap today, you should have no trouble fitting in a 1-4 split of Marcus Semien ($3.4k), Bo Bichette ($3.7k), Vlad Jr ($3.8k), and Teoscar Henandez ($3k). Vlad double dong day.

Boston Red Sox vs. Jose Quintana – I don’t think that Quintana is a bad pitcher. His ERA may say 9, but he’s pitched much better than that as evidenced by his 3.83 xFIP. This is purely due to how good the Red Sox have been against southpaws this year. For the season the Red Sox have a .345 wOBA and 120 wRC+ against lefties. They’ve dominated them.

Quintana is throwing his 4 seamer and curveball about 60% of the time this year. Xander Bogaerts ($3.6k) and JD Martinez ($4.3k) both profile absolutely amazing against this combo. While he’s at the bottom of the order Bobby Dalbec ($2.1k) also profiles very well.

Red Sox should put up a big number and give Quintana an early exit today. The good thing for us is that the Angels bullpen has been dreadful over the past couple of weeks with an xFIP over 5.

Detroit Tigers vs. Kyle Hendricks – Hendricks gave up 4 runs in 5 innings against the Pirates last outing. If ever there was a sign that a pitcher isn’t good, that’s it. Hendricks has really struggled to keep the ball in the park this season. He’s already surrendered 11 homers and we’re only a month and a half into the season. He’s on pace to give up an astronomical amount of dongs.

While the Tigers are far from a powerhouse lineup, like really far from it, they’ve shown some life over the past couple of weeks. They’re no longer the punching bag we used them as at the start of the year. Hendricks is going to rely mostly on his sinker. Akil Baddoo ($2.5k) and Jacoby Jones ($2.1k) both profile well against this pitch. Tigers are a cheap stack and you probably won’t need to go here today but I really like the Tigers chances today of putting up a big number against Hendricks.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

This has the makings for an offense packed Sunday. There are only a few pitchers that I feel like we can trust today and some powerhouse offenses that should do well. It’s Sunday so that always means lineups can get a bit funky so make sure you are staying on top of them.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Sunday Funday 5/09

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Sunday Funday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a big 11 game main slate on Fanduel and that’s what we’ll focus on.

First, Happy Mother’s Day to all those moms reading this.

Outside of Jacob Degrom today, there’s no clear ace. However, there are a few intriguing options that while they carry some risk, they should carry some reward too. It has the make-up for a fun slate though.

With that being said, let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Jacob Degrom ($12.5k) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – All signs point to Degrom making his start today. Luis Rojas said after the game that he was good to go after throwing a bullpen and also playing catch.

1.39 xFIP, 48% K rate, 23% swinging strike rate. That’s all you really need to know about DeGrom. He’s one of the best pitchers of our generation. If he’s throwing, he should either be in your lineup or a strong consideration for your lineup. I’d continue to monitor his status all morning leading up to first pitch, but all signs point to him being good to go.

Sandy Alcantara ($9k) vs. Milwaukee Brewers – Brewers snapped their 6 game losing streak last night. But they also faced a pitcher that isn’t of the same quality as Alcantara. Brewers for the season are striking out at a near 27% clip vs. righties this season. I wouldn’t call Alcantara a strikeout pitcher, but he’s been striking out about a batter per inning this season.

With the Brewers striking out so much against righties, I could see Alcantara exceeding that average today. Another encouraging sign with Alcantara is that he’s been doing an excellent job of limiting hard contact. His hard contact rate for the season is only 24%. One of the lowest marks of any pitcher going today. When looking at pitchers, I try to find spots where guys can have a ceiling game. Brewer represent that opportunity today.

Nick Pivetta ($8.5k) vs. Baltimore Orioles – Pivetta is rolling right now. Two really solid starts in a row. One vs. the Mets, one vs. Tigers. Today he gets to take on a not so scary Orioles lineup. The Orioles haven’t been as bad as advertised this year. But they are still an attackable team.

Orioles K at a 25% clip vs. righties to go along with low OPS and wOBA. Pivetta’s pitch of choice after his fastball is the curveball. This is not a pitch that the Orioles handle all that well. Look at some of the whiff rates below. Again, I try to find ceiling opportunities for pitchers when they start. Orioles today represent that opportunity for Pivetta.

Some notes on other pitchers. I also really like Tyler Mahle ($8.9k) vs. Cleveland Indians. It’s a great matchup for him. There’s some serious risk in that game with weather and when targeting pitchers, I don’t like that kind of risk. Lucas Giolito ($9.6k) has been performing much better of late, with 15 K’s in his last 2 outings. A strong case could be made for him today. I just liked the other 3 guys better.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Boston Red Sox vs. Dean Kremer – Kremer is relying on his fastball more this season than he did last year. 57% vs. 51%. His fb has been hovering around the high 92 mph range. The good thing for us is that this is a pitch and velocity that the Red Sox tee off on.

Alex Verdugo ($3.2k), JD Martinez ($4.3k), Xander Bogaerts ($3.6k), and Rafael Devers ($3.5k) all have ISO’s greater than .230 against this pitch to go along with low whiff rates and very high hard hit rates. This is going to be a tough matchup for Kremer. Red Sox are my favorite stack of the day.

New York Mets vs. Riley Smith – It’s been a while since I’ve written up the Mets as a stack. They just have a really good matchup today and are finally hitting the ball well. For the season Smith has an xFIP of 5.53, the worst of any pitching going today. He hasn’t really been giving up the long ball much with only 2 homers surrendered this year. But he also hasn’t been fooling batters with a super low K rate of 11.5%.

Smith is a sinker ball pitcher. Jeff Mcneil ($2.9k), Francisco Lindor ($3k), and Michael Conforto ($3.2k) have all had a lot of success against this pitch. While sinker ball pitchers tend to throw more ground balls, the three guys I mentioned all have average distances over 300 feet against it. I’m not as worried about the ground balls from them.

Both Mcneil and Lindor are finally coming around with their bats. They’re still cheap compared to what they are doing and what they can do. Look for them to keep rolling today.

Chicago White sox vs. Mike Minor – White Sox for the season have been superb against lefty pitching. They have an .847 OPS and a .367 wOBA. Today they get to face a lefty in Mike Minor who has a 4.58 xFIP for the season, is giving up fly balls, and has surrendered 6 long balls. This has the makings of a great matchup for the White Sox. Guys like Tim Anderson ($3.8k), Yoan Moncada ($3.2k), Yermin Mercedes ($2.9k), and Jose Abreu ($3.8k) should all feast today.

Other spots I like today for hitting are the New York Yankees vs. Joe Ross and Miami Marlins vs. Brett Anderson. Miguel Rojas ($3.1k), Jesus Aguilar ($3.9k), and Adam Duvall ($2.9k) all could have themselves a day against Anderson.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Weather will be a major factor today. The games in the Midwest all appear to be at some type of risk today. So Detroit, Cleveland, and St. Louis all need to be monitored. Outside of the weather this looks to be a fun slate. We have the best pitcher in baseball throwing and some bats that should tee off!

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 5/8 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 4 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s seven-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

Some nasty storms firing up later tonight in the area of the White Sox at Royals game but other than that no major weather concerns for the 7:05 slate.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top Ace: Clayton Kershaw ($11,000)

The pitching in the main slate is pretty ugly, though you should check out the deep dive Adam Strangis gave us in his 5/8 Starting Rotation piece for more info. Kershaw is the top spend of the main slate and I’ll probably be avoiding Lance Lynn and the chance for a weather-impacted start for the White Sox hurler in Kansas City. I do like one pitcher a lot more for GPP value, but it’s silly to think anyone has higher floor tonight than a future HOFer in Kershaw facing their Pasadena counterparts. The Angels — slightly below league average against lefties — have a low team strikeout rate (second-lowest in baseball at 21.6%), but they also have the lowest projected run total of the 14 teams that encompass this slate. Kershaw got knocked around by the Cubs on May 4 but threw just 39 pitches and should be plenty ready for a MLB DFS rebound on short rest.

Best GPP Value: Ian Anderson ($7,900)

Another solid pitcher looking to bounce back from a bad outing, Anderson didn’t fare well against the high contact Blue Jays in his last start, failing to get into one of his customary bat-missing grooves. But the Phillies have the second-highest team strikeout rate in the majors this year (27.9%) and that’s what I’m looking for on FanDuel, where “Ks are King” for SP in MLB DFS. Anderson whiffs over 10 batters per 9 IP, and he’s been plagued by an abnormally high HR/FB rate so far this season. Expect him to notch himelf 7-8 KS and stand a very good shot at a quality start/win with his Atlanta Braves standing at -170 to -180 favorites at home.

Contrarian GPP Value: Garrett Richards ($7,400)

Richards has shown the ability to strike out 10+ batters in an outing, which he accomplished against the Mets on April 27 in a monster 58-point FanDuel performance. The Orioles aren’t the pushovers they were a couple years ago, but the team K rate is still 24.6% and their measly team wRC+ of 89 is uninspiring from a DFS perspective. If you’re looking for an off-the-radar play with some upside as a pivot from chalk and the obvious GPP value that Anderson offers, Richards could be a fine MLB DFS leverage play who’s capable of 40-50 FP tonight. Over his past 12 IP, he’s struck out 17 batters to just one BB.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Atlanta Braves vs. PHI RHP Vince Velasquez

The Braves have the highest total of the slate (5 runs) and while Vince Velasquez has been a dynamic pitcher in the past, his 2021 numbers aren’t great. His painfully high walk rate (6.38 BB/9) and high FIP/xFIP (6.13/4.62) could be a huge problem against an admittedly circular Braves lineup that features some of the best batters in baseball vs. RHP, including Ronald Acuna ($4,400), Freddie Freeman ($4,000), a switch-hitting Ozzie Albies ($3,300) and value-laden Austin Riley ($2,500). There’s also Marcell Ozuna ($3,500) and young C William Contreras ($2,800). The top MLB DFS guys from Atlanta are not chap, so I’ll probably make some different combos of four-man stacks with Anderson and a few with Garrett Richards.

Value Stack: Houston Astros vs. TOR LHP Steven Matz

I thought the Astros would be more expensive, honestly, but the pricing hasn’t caught up to just how hot Alex Bregman ($3,600) is getting. Bregman’s .420 wOBA this season vs. LHP is a number that’s actually come down since 2019 — when it was .430 from 2018-19. The team’s wRC+ is 124 over the past 14 days, a mark equaled only by the Yankees, who have seen their bats heat up behind a rejuvenated Giancarlo Stanton. Yordan Alvarez ($3,700) is a lefty who mashes lefties and both Yulieski Gurriel ($2,900) and Carlos Correa ($3,100) have massive HR upside in a lineup that produces lots of runs. Did I mention that Jose Altuve ($3,400) has four hits including a HR) in his last nine AB? Even Michael Brantley ($3,000) works just fine as a contrarian LHB play as the No. 2 hitter in a 1-4 stack here, and nobody’s price is too outrageous.

Contrarian Stack: Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles LHP Zac Lowther

We know that Bregman mashes lefties, but only Nolan Arenado (.460 wOBA, but with the boost of Mile-High home games) and J.D. Martinez and his .457 wOBA ($4,300) have done more against LHP since 2017. Mrtinex makes foe a great anchor in a four-man Red Sox stack that also includes Rafael Devers ($3,500) — who boats a .410 wOBA in 30 AB vs. LHP this season — Xander Bogaerts ($3,600) and the sneaky Marwin Gonzalez ($2,400), if he gets another spot near the top of the lineups tonight. Stay tuned to see who gets the final nod in the Red Sox starting nine hitters, but a core of Martinez, Devers and Bogaerts is a great start against the inexperienced Lowther, who is bound to struggle against the Sox tonight in Baltimore.

Good luck, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 4/27 (Fanduel Main Slate)

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a massive 13 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

The slate today has a couple of different paths you can take. You can pay up for pitching and piece together a stack and some value pieces. Or you can pay down a bit for pitching and load up on some offenses prime for success.

I’m normally a single line up person but because of the way the slate is today, I feel the need to build 2 lineups. One with a priced up pitcher, one with a low priced pitcher. My goal today will be to give you options for both.

With that being said, let’s dig in to today’s MLB DFS slate!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Lucas Giolito ($10.6k) vs. Detroit Tigers – This is your premier matchup on the day. Giolito is the second biggest favorite on the board today. He faces a Tigers lineup that has struggled against righties (they’ve actually just struggled as a whole this year). As a team they have a 27% k rate vs. righties this season and a wOBA south of .300. This sets up beautifully for Gio today.

Gio did struggle in his last outing against a surprisingly potent Red Sox offense, but that was an outlier and look for a nice bounce back today. On the season, he has a 32% k rate which is in line w/ his career numbers and a 15% whiff rate. He’s also really been able to limit hard contact. In 18 IP this season, he’s only given up 4 barrels. If paying up for pitching today, he’s going to be my guy.

Max Scherzer ($12k) vs. Toronto Blue Jays – I don’t make it a habit of picking on the Blue Jays lineup. Up and down the lineup they have solid hitters. But they’re right handed heavy and they face one of the top pitchers of our generation today. Since 2019, Max has a K rate of 37% vs. righties, while also inducing more soft contact than he does to lefties. I wish he was a little bit cheaper due to the match-up, but it’s a match-up he should do well in.

Jose Quintana ($6.7k) vs. Texas Rangers – Although it may look like there is some recency bias since Quintana dominated the Rangers last week, it’s actually due to the fact that the Rangers really struggle against lefties. I don’t expect another 8 k’s from Quintana tonight. 5-6 is probably more realistic for his skill set.

Rangers just can’t put good wood on Lefties. Although they had 7 hits against Keuchel the other night, 5 were singles and it was a relatively easy night for him. For the season the Rangers have a .109 iso against lefties. Of all the teams playing today ,that’s the worst ISO vs. the handedness of the pitcher. They also have a .271 wOBA vs. lefties, which again, is the worst wOBA vs. their opponents handedness. At only 6.7K, it won’t take much for Quintana to exceed his value

Chris Paddack ($7.7k) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – Paddack came up with a lot of fanfare in 2019. He battled Alonso for the ROY award, rightfully losing to the polar bear. Although he’s taken a little step back over the last 2 years, he’s starting to round into form. Two starts ago he was able to get the pitch count up to 99 pitches. There was a drop off last start but that was due to this team letting him down with poor defense. What stood out to me the most was that he came away w/ a season high of 7k’s.

This is purely a hunch play. Diamondbacks will probably throw out a mostly lefty lineup tonight. The main secondary pitch that Paddack throws to lefties is his changeup, 33% of the time. Only Kole Calhoun has a cxWOBA over .300 to this pitch from righties. For the season, the Diamondbacks have been mediocre against righties. Not a safe play, but possibly a fun play.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Boston Red Sox vs. David Peterson – This has the makings of a short outing for Peterson. Peterson isn’t a bad pitcher by any means. His xFIP is a full 4 runs lower than his ERA. He just doesn’t match up well w/ the Red Sox. This is a lineup that is setup to be successful vs. lefties. As a team, they have a .343 wOBA and a .186 ISO this season. If we go back to 2019, we’re looking at a .380 wOBA and a .264 ISO.

Peterson’s main pitch to hitters is the sinker, 41% to lefties and 28% to righties. Let’s look at some numbers since 2016 to the pitch. JD Martinez ($4.2k) .400 ISO, Xander Bogaerts ($3.7k) .211 ISO, Rafael Devers ($3.6k) .222 ISO, and Hunter Renfroe ($2.4k) .233 ISO. Vegas currently has the Red Sox at a 3.89 IRT. I think that’s wrong. Very Wrong.

New York Mets vs. Garrett Richards – I will not stack the Mets again… Eh, I’m doing it. Richards has a 6.25 xFIP this season. That’s a borderline DFA area. Here’s why I’m looking this way today. I tend to focus a bit more research on the pitcher’s main secondary pitch. Richards’ is the slider. This is a pitch the Mets’ lineup has had a ton of success against.

Brandon Nimmo ($3k), Francisco Lindor ($3.2k), Dominic Smith ($3k), Pete Alonso ($3.9k), and Michael Conforto ($2.9k) all have ISO’s north of .240 and cxWOBA’s north of .390. Outside of Alonso, all of these guys are super affordable. Especially Conforto who is really heating up. Conforto is a super streaky hitter who when he’s hot, he gets really hot.

Houston Astros vs. Marco Gonzales – The Astros are finally fully healthy. Jose Altuve ($3.5k) is back after a bout with Covid. Here’s another lineup that is set up to do really well against lefties. For the season, they have a low K rate of 18% and a .342 wOBA vs. lefties. With Gonzales not missing any bats this year (8% whiff rate), I really like this spot for the Astros. The guys I want to prioritize here are Altuve,Alex Bregman ($3.8k), Yulieski Gurriel ($3.2k), and Martin Maldonado ($2.1k). All have had success against Gonzales’ main pitch which is the sinker. Don’t be afraid to start your stack with Maldonado in the 9 hole.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Corey Kluber – This is my bonus cheap stack of the day. Kluber just isn’t the same pitcher as he used to be. His 5.9 xFIP is one of the worst on the slate. He’s been struggling to keep guys off the bases as evidenced by his near 2 WHIP. The Orioles should be able to put up a bunch of runs tonight against Kluber. If you’re paying up for pitching, this is a lineup that has some guys that can put up points and save you some money. Cedric Mullins ($2.9k) has multi-hit games in 3 of his last 4 and he’s cheap.

MLB DFS Aces and Bases Wrap Up

This has the makings of an extremely fun slate. Lots of different paths can you take, and whichever path you take I hope it ends up with you cashing.

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Sunday Funday – 4/25 (Fanduel Main Slate)

Jared Levitt 4 years ago

written by Jared Levitt

Welcome to the Sunday Funday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have an 11 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

This slate has a few solid pitchers that are in really good spots that we can take advantage of. There are also some hitting spots that, although aren’t super clear, I think we can also take advantage of.

With that being said, let’s dig in to today’s slate!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Danny Duffy ($8.8k) vs. Detroit Tigers – Duffy has been really good this year. Although his xFIP indicates there will be some regression from his .5 ERA, none of his underlying stats indicate it’s going to come anytime soon. For the season, Tigers have a 32.7% k rate vs. lefties. Although that number is really enticing, the number that stands out the most to me that indicates this is one of your safer avenues today is that their team ISO vs. lefties is only .09. They’re just not getting much done vs. lefties this year.

Now let’s circle back to Duffy and why I don’t think the regression is coming today. When giving up contact this year, he’s just not letting batters square him up. His soft hit rate is 22.9% and his hard hit rate is only 29.2%. The low hard hit rate plus low team ISO for the Tigers has me really loving this matchup.

Jameson Taillon ($7.2k) vs. Cleveland Indians – Really like this spot for Taillon today. The Indians haven’t been great against righties this season. They have a 26% k rate, a team wOBA of .279, and a team ISO of .153. This sets up well for Taillon who should see some positive regression today. His xFIP is a 1.3 runs lower than his 5.4 ERA. This season, he’s been K’ing more than 10 batters per 9 innings while really limiting his walks with only 1.35 per 9. The one area of concern for me with Taillon is that he’s a fly ball pitcher. One or two of those flyballs hit hard and this game can be completely different for him.

Taijuan Walker ($7.7k) vs. Washington Nationals – Walker has been a steal for the Mets so far this season. They signed him late in free agency and all he’s done is deal! Nationals broke out yesterday but I don’t think that happens 2 days in a row. Walker has a 12.21 k/9 this season. He’s been doing this by fooling batters. Batters are only swinging at 55% of his pitches in the zone. And when they do swing at pitches in the zone against him, they’re only making contact 74% of the time. Both great metrics. This Nationals lineup really takes a hit with Soto on the IL so I fully expect Walker to take advantage of it today.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Boston Red Sox vs. Nick Margevicius – I should warn you that weather may play a factor in this game. Actually, there’s a good chance it does. But if they play, this is a lineup I want a part of. Margevicius has been giving up a ton of hard contact this year at nearly 40%. He also hasn’t been missing many bats with a 7% whiff rate. Red Sox have a team wOBA of .335 vs. lefties this season. The two plays that really stand out here are JD Martinez ($4.3k) and Xander Bogaerts ($3.4k). Both have a wOBA vs. lefties of more than .400 since 2019. 2 other guys I really like in this matchup are Hernandez ($3k) and Vazquez ($2.7k) if he plays.

Chicago White Sox vs. Kohei Arihara – I will continue to stack against Arihara until it works for me. Arihara continues to give up a ton of contact, and hard contact. His whiff rate is low at 7.5% and his hard hit rate is 44.1%. He’s also given up 8 barrels this year. At some point, regression is going to come his way and I want to be a part of it. His xFIP is almost 2 runs higher than his ERA. It’s coming folks. Join me for the ride. 1-4 of the White Sox are underrated vs. righties. People think White Sox, they think attack against lefties. Anderson ($4k) has a .353 wOBA vs. righties since 2019, Eaton ($3.4k) .345, Moncada ($3.1k) .351 with a .209 ISO, and Abreu ($3.5K) .341 with a .229 ISO. W/ the Red Sox game being at risk, this is my favorite stack of the day.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Jack Flaherty – I normally wouldn’t stack against Flaherty, but I really like the Reds today. Flaherty throws is his fastball more than 48% of the time to lefties (and righties). 1-4 of the Reds all eat this pitch up. Winker ($3.9k) has a .431 cxwoba, Castellanos ($3.7k) .571, Votto ($3k) .482, and Suarez ($3.3k) .536. This isn’t a safe play by any means but I don’t think many people go here today. Reds have an implied run total of only 3.34 today. That’s really light in my opinion.

MLB DFS Aces and Bases Wrap Up

Today’s going to be a fun slate. There are no clear paths to victory and those are the days I enjoy the most and also the days where added research can help you over take your opponents.

As is always the case on Sunday, make sure you are checking lineups. Often a sit day for players w/ it being getaway day. Weather will play a factor today. Keep an eye on potentially delays/ppd risks.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

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Boston Red Sox

MLB DFS: The Aces

MLB DFS: The Bats

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Eduardo Rodriguez ($9,800)

Best GPP Value: J.A. Happ ($8,100)

The other GPP Play: Wade Miley ($8,800)

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Boston Red Sox

GPP Value Stack: St. Louis Cardinals

Contrarian GPP Stack: Miami Marlins

MLB DFS: The Early Slate

MLB DFS: The Aces

MLB DFS: The Bats

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Walker Buehler ($10,500)

Best GPP Value: Chris Bassitt ($8,800)

Contrarian GPP Value: Robbie Ray ($9,100)

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Boston Red Sox vs. PHI RHP Spencer Howard

Value Stack: San Diego Padres vs. SEA LHP Justus Sheffield

Contrarian Stack: Oakland Athletics vs. LAA LHP Patrick Sandoval

MLB DFS: The Early Slate Aces

MLB DFS: The Early Slate Bats

MLB DFS: The Early Slate Wrap Up

MLB DFS: The Main Slate Aces

MLB DFS: The Main Slate Bats

MLB DFS: The Main Slate Wrap-up

MLB DFS: The Aces

MLB DFS: The Bats

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

MLB DFS: The Aces

MLB DFS: The Bats

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top Ace: Clayton Kershaw ($11,000)

Best GPP Value: Ian Anderson ($7,900)

Contrarian GPP Value: Garrett Richards ($7,400)

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Atlanta Braves vs. PHI RHP Vince Velasquez

Value Stack: Houston Astros vs. TOR LHP Steven Matz

Contrarian Stack: Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles LHP Zac Lowther

MLB DFS: The Aces

MLB DFS: The Bats

MLB DFS Aces and Bases Wrap Up

MLB DFS: The Aces

MLB DFS: The Bats

MLB DFS Aces and Bases Wrap Up

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