Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s six-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 6:40PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!
The biggest weather threat is in Baltimore for the Braves-Orioles, and while we can certainly target hitters for this game, I’m not interested in either pitching option. Pricing is really tight on FD, much unlike the free squares for Colorado on DK, and it feels like all the best hitters on the slate are $3,500 and up — but we have some ways to attack this in GPPs and give ourselves a great shot at spiking a top finish.
It may seem crazy to say given his dynamic range of outcomes, but Rodriguez facing the strikeout-prone Rangers is the clear ace of the slate, especially with how much weight FD gives Ks and just how iffy the next two options (Joe Musgrove and Aaron Nola) have been over their past few starts. I love a good risk-reward pick as much as the next guy, but we just haven’t seen enough from the starting pitchers in the PHI-SD game to warrant using them at those prices. Rodriguez, though, gets a great spot against a Rangers team that is dead last in wOBA (.284) vs. LHP. He has 10K upside in this matchup and should get the requisite run support to notch a W. The only problem in rostering him comes when it’s time to stack up some hitters, but we do have some great value options on the Cardinals (more on that later).
The crafty veteran lefty is definitely someone that we could have looked to attack with right-handed mashers earlier in the season, but he’s completely turned around his season this August. Since he was traded to St. Louis, Happ’s allowed just three runs over 16.2 innings (1.62 ERA) with an 11:5 K:BB in his three outings. He’s sporting a dynamite .251 wOBA against opposing hitters in that stretch, and there’s nobody on this Pirates lineup that really scares me. He’s looking at around 25-30 as a floor with 45+ upside at a price point where nobody else has that kind of ceiling. He’s worth the investment and leaves $3,300+ per hitter — which helps us get the guys we need.
Nobody likes playing soft-tossing Wade Miley, but he’s probably going to be relatively popular on this slate because he draws the Marlins, a lineup that’s chock full of some guys that aren’t necessarily household names. In fact, his popularity could dictate a few GPP stacks of the Marlins hitters just because it’ll be easy to get a portion of our builds way ahead of the projected ownership for guys like Lewis Brinson, Jesus Aguilar and Brian Anderson. But in my GPP builds where I’m not stacking Marlins, he’s a viable value option. I just wouldn’t exceed 20-25% with him if we’re doing 10+ lineups. He’s another guy with a 25-30 point floor and 45+ upside, but like I said — he’ll be pretty chalky, and if we’re looking for leverage we’re looking elsewhere.
With all due respect to the game in Coors and the Braves against Matt Harvey in a game that’s likely to get pretty wet, my top stack is going to be the Red Sox against Jordan Lyles, who’s been dreadful. Lyles sports a .355 wOBA, .207 ISO, 40+% hard contact rate, 1.7 HR/9, a miniscule 16% K rate, a hilariously high 11% BB rate and a 49% fly ball rate. The Sox are going to mash, and getting exposure to their 1-7 hitters is a priority. The top four among them would be J.D. Martinez ($4,000), Rafael Devers ($4,200), Xander Bogaerts ($4,100) and Hunter Renfroe ($3,600) — who’s having a career year and has greatly improved his production vs. RHP. I also like leadoff man Kike Hernandez ($3,600), Kyle Schwarber ($3,700) and Alex Verdugo ($3,000) and, if he gets the start, a dirt-cheap Travis Shaw ($2,300). I’ll be mixing and matching Sox builds in just about all of my GPP entries, except for the random couple where I get some Coors exposure — which I don’t think is a huge priority on this slate based on FD’s inflated pricing. There’s plenty of value in that Colorado lineup on DK, but it’s cost prohibitive on FD where we need to save a few bucks.
The Cards are the clear value play that allows us to fit Rodriguez and/or the necessary Red Sox bats. Tommy Edman ($3,000), Tyler O’Neill ($3,200), Paul Goldschmidt ($3,800) and Nolan Arenado ($4,300) are the best four bats, but we might not be able to get Goldy and Arenado in there because of their hefty prices — which is fine in GPPs since we have more options in Paul DeJong ($2,700) and Harrison Bader ($2,900). Yadier Molina is really inexpensive at $2,500, and he’s locked into that No. 5 spot right in the middle of all the action.
We’ll start with the guys I mentioned earlier — Aguilar ($2,900), Brinson ($2,800) and Anderson ($2,900) and throw in Miguel Rojas ($2,800) for good measure. Wade Miley limits hard contact, but this is a bunch that could fluster him by just getting the ball in play, and relying on the “bloop and a blast” method. Again — this is a contrarian mini-stack not to be used in more than 20-25% of your GPP builds if you’re multi-entering. Jazz Chisholm, Jr. ($3,200) and Jesus Sanchez ($2,300) are also options.
Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!
Welcome to the Thursday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have 2 slates of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through. 4 games at 1pm and a 7 game main slate.
Both slates today see some risky pitching options. With risky pitching options comes offenses in some really nice spots. My goal on both slates will be to provide with some aces and some bats to help you get into the green and score a takedown.
Let’s dig in to today’s slates!
The early slate today is a very risky slate. 3 of the 4 games have weather concerns, with 2 being serious enough where this could end up being a 2 game.
Pitching wise you should lock inJose Berrios ($10.5k) and move on. He gets a good match-up against a White Sox team that has been struggling over the past couple of weeks. Yes, they put up a big number but it was against 2 pitchers that probably shouldn’t be in the majors in Ober and Shoemaker.
Carlos Rodon ($11k) is the best pitcher on the slate talent wise but he’s taking on a projected Twins lineup that has only a 21% K rate on the year to lefties and a .313 wOBA. I don’t really like the match-up for him.
Hitting wise we need to be a little different than our opponents as it’s such a small slate. I’m going to do that by looking at the Seattle Mariners against Hyun Jin Ryu. Outside of his 1 start against the Orioles, Ryu has been pretty bad over the past month. His swinging strike rate is sitting at 8% and he’s giving up about 20% more hard contact than soft contact. The bats I’d focus on there are Haniger ($3k) and France ($2.7k).
The next spot I’d look at are the Boston Red Sox against Kris Bubic. Bubic has really been struggling. In his last 18 innings of work he’s given up 8 homers. He’s not missing bats and he’s giving up a ton of hard contact. His xFIP over the past 30 days is sitting right around 5. He’s actually been worse this season against lefties so we don’t need to avoid guys like Devers or Verdugo. The 3 guys I’m most focused Bogaerts ($4k), Martinez ($4.3k), and Renfroe ($3.5k). All three of these guys have ISO’s greater than .240 over the past 3 seasons when facing lefties. They smash lefties and Bubic is a smashable lefty.
I have very low confidence the Yankees/Angles game plays today. If it does, both teams would make great stacks as Canning and Montgomery have been pretty bad of late.
Jacob Degrom ($11.5K) vs. Atlanta Braves – Degrom is hands down the best pitcher on the slate. He has a staggering 42% K rate over the past 30 days with a 21% swinging strike rate. I don’t need to sell you on his talent. My only concern with Degrom is that he hasn’t been going deep into the games recently. Due to injuries he’s had several outings cut short.
The good news is that his arm hasn’t been taxed that much. He hasn’t thrown more than 90 pitches in a game since April. With the Mets blowing through their bullpen in games recently do they give him a longer leash than they have? I hope so.
Corbin Burnes ($10.6K) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates – As Adam pointed out in the Starting Rotation today, the spin rate monsters have caught up to Burnes. He’s seen a pretty significant drop in spin rate with his cutter. With that being his main pitch we’ll need to use him with caution. That said, he still has an elite 35% K rate over the past 30 days.
While the Pirates aren’t a high strike out team (their projected lineup today has a 19% K rate vs. righties), they’re also not hitting for much power. Against righties this season they have just a .655 OPS and .121 ISO. Those are pretty bad numbers. Burnes is my clear #2 behind Degrom.
Ian Anderson ($8.4k) vs. New York Mets – While the Mets are getting close to fully healthy on the offensive side, they’ve still been struggling to put up runs. They’ve also been K’ing a bunch. Over the past week they have a 28% K rate. Until they show consistently they are a productive offense, I think we can attack them.
Today we’ll attack them with Anderson who has been solid of late. Over the past 30 days he’s sporting a 3.24 xFIP with a 27% K rate. All signs point to him having a solid outing tonight. He’s not in the same ballpark as Degrom and Burnes, but he’s a whole lot cheaper and provides some upside tonight.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Will Crowe – I’m going to continue playing the Brewers until FD raises their prices and everyone else decides to join the party. They are one of the hottest offenses in the game right now and tonight they get a match-up against a pitcher in Crowe who has been giving up a ton of hard contact.
In his last 18 innings pitched he’s given up 6 homers to go along with just an 8% swinging strike rate. Crowe’s been getting hit pretty hard by both sides of the plate so we can focus on the entire lineup.
The guys I’m focusing on tonight with Brewers will be Urias ($3k), Adames ($3.1k), Narvaez ($2.6k), and Peterson ($2.4k). Hiura ($3.2k) is also an interchangeable part in this stack. All have been extremely productive during this run the Brewers have been on. As a team they have 18 barrels over the past week in just 176 AB’s.
San Francisco Giants vs. Merrill Kelly – Yes, Kelly has been lights out the last 2 games. Prior to that though he had been brutal. With a match-up against the Giants today we should see Kelly come back down to earth. The Giants have been very strong against righties this year with a near .200 ISO and an OPS sitting at .758. Giants should throw out 5 lefties tonight.
In looking at Kelly’s pitch mix he’ll mostly throw a 91 MPH fastball and mix in his change-up. This is a combo that Giants lefties hit very well. My focus will be on Yastrzemski ($2.9k), Dickerson ($2.2k), and Crawford ($2.8k). They are all cheap and have ISO’s greater than .200 to Kelly’s pitch mix.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Antonio Senzatela – There’s weather risk in this game, but it’s Coors and I do want a piece of it tonight. Over the last month Senzatela has been giving up a ton of hard contact. It’s sitting close to 43%. This is something I’ll want to exploit tonight.
He’s been somewhat of a reverse splits pitcher as the majority of the hard contact is coming from righties as they have a 48% hard hit rate against him this year. Cardinals have a predominantly right handed lineup so this lines up very well for them, and very poorly for Senzatela.
He throws his 94 MPH fastball more than 50% of the time. Carlson ($3.3k) and O’Neill ($3.8k) both have ISO’s greater than .300 against this pitch type. Plugging in Goldschmidt ($4.1k) and Arenado ($4.2k) may prove to be tough because of salary, but if I had to pick between the two, I’d side withArenado.
Between the day slate and the night slate we’re going to need to be prepared to closely monitor weather. There’s rain everywhere today and there are a handful of games that are both at risk of a delay and postponement.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green tonight!
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Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s six-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!
No weather concerns of note, so everyone should technically be “in play” from a DFS perspective.
I’m not sure how many folks will get thrown off by the stiff winds blowing out to center in San Francisco tonight, but that stadium minimizes wind impact with its design — and Buehler is still the top ace of the slate. There’s really no close second, and I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention that Buehler’s ZIPS projections anticipate a lot more Ks over the next few starts. His talent level is head and shoulders better than choices B and C tonight and the run support he should get with his Dodgers facing the Giants’ Matt Wisler and some bullpen arms is enough to make him the safest option on the board.
The A’s are a road favorite against an Angels team missing Mike Trout — the anchor of their lineup and one of the main reasons to fear that team. Over the past seven days we’ve seen the Angels team K rate increase about three percentage points, and while Bassitt isn’t known as a high-strikeout pitcher, his K/9 has increased to 9.62 this season, and his walk rate is the lowest its been in his seven-year MLB career. There isn’t an EASY value on tonight’s slate, but if I had to pick a guy who could surprise and break through with moderately low ownership on a day with limited options, Bassitt is the guy.
Ray has been excellent this season, and while the minor league park the Blue Jays are hosting games in is quite the bandbox, Ray’s K is up a percentage point and a half to 28.9% this season. It’s not quite where it was during his DFS heyday in 2017 — when it was a whopping 32.8 and he posted a 1.15 WHIP and 3.72 FIP — but Ray is throwing a lot of good fastballs again, limiting hard contact this season and getting his WHIP down to an impressive 1.17 through seven starts. The Rays strike out at the fourth-highest rate among MLB teams and that’s exactly the type of thing we’re looking for on FanDuel, where efficiency matters a lot less than notching strikeouts. Adam Strangis also points out in his 5/22 Starting Rotation piece that they’re especially bad against lefties. Nathan Eovaldi ($7,200) also makes sense as an off-the-wall, high-risk contrarian play against Philadelphia. The Phillies have the second-highest team strikeout rate in baseball, but Eovaldi might end up being more popular than Ray because of the salary difference.
The Red Sox continue to mash and represent the safest stack of the 5/22 MLB DFS slate. They also boast one of the higher projected team run totals and have a 2-5 stack that rivals any in the bigs at the moment. Alex Verdugo is out today (hamstring) but Xander Bogaerts ($3,800), J.D. Martinez ($4,300) and Rafael Devers ($3,800) should all be rostered confidently. It’s an expensive stack that will probably need some value to offset that type of spending. Value options for your fourth hitter on Boston include Kike Hernandez ($3,200) — who has 2B/OF positional flexibility — Christian Vazquez ($2,500), and sluggers Bobby Dalbec ($2,400) and Hunter Renfroe ($2,200)
The Padres aren’t normally a value play as a team stack, but Eric Hosmer is just $2,700 and Fernando Tatis Jr. ($4,500) is the only real spend-up hitter we’ll encounter here. The rest of my preferred stack includes Manny Machado ($3,200) and Tommy Pham ($2,100). Pham’s price is way too low given his upside and the fact that that his offense came alive for 34.2 FanDuel points last night. Right handed Austin Nola ($2,900) is also an option, and I would prefer leadoff hitter Trent Grisham ($3,400) to Jake Cronenworth ($3,000) since the former is better vs. lefties and the latter sometimes gets a day off against southpaws anyway — but Grisham is nursing a heel injury that had him removed in the fifth inning against Seattle yesterday.
It’s difficult to say just how many innings Sandoval will pitch tonight, but the A’s are better against LHP this season and their productive core of Mark Canha $3,100), Ramon Laureano ($3,400) and Matt Chapman ($2,700) could get some early scoring off the mediocre southpaw. I’m fine adding Matt Olson ($3,400) to the mix or even take a shot on Seth Brown ($2,200), who homered a couple games ago and offers some great value.
Good luck, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!
Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s seven-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!
Some nasty storms firing up later tonight in the area of the White Sox at Royals game but other than that no major weather concerns for the 7:05 slate.
The pitching in the main slate is pretty ugly, though you should check out the deep dive Adam Strangis gave us in his 5/8 Starting Rotation piece for more info. Kershaw is the top spend of the main slate and I’ll probably be avoiding Lance Lynn and the chance for a weather-impacted start for the White Sox hurler in Kansas City. I do like one pitcher a lot more for GPP value, but it’s silly to think anyone has higher floor tonight than a future HOFer in Kershaw facing their Pasadena counterparts. The Angels — slightly below league average against lefties — have a low team strikeout rate (second-lowest in baseball at 21.6%), but they also have the lowest projected run total of the 14 teams that encompass this slate. Kershaw got knocked around by the Cubs on May 4 but threw just 39 pitches and should be plenty ready for a MLB DFS rebound on short rest.
Another solid pitcher looking to bounce back from a bad outing, Anderson didn’t fare well against the high contact Blue Jays in his last start, failing to get into one of his customary bat-missing grooves. But the Phillies have the second-highest team strikeout rate in the majors this year (27.9%) and that’s what I’m looking for on FanDuel, where “Ks are King” for SP in MLB DFS. Anderson whiffs over 10 batters per 9 IP, and he’s been plagued by an abnormally high HR/FB rate so far this season. Expect him to notch himelf 7-8 KS and stand a very good shot at a quality start/win with his Atlanta Braves standing at -170 to -180 favorites at home.
Richards has shown the ability to strike out 10+ batters in an outing, which he accomplished against the Mets on April 27 in a monster 58-point FanDuel performance. The Orioles aren’t the pushovers they were a couple years ago, but the team K rate is still 24.6% and their measly team wRC+ of 89 is uninspiring from a DFS perspective. If you’re looking for an off-the-radar play with some upside as a pivot from chalk and the obvious GPP value that Anderson offers, Richards could be a fine MLB DFS leverage play who’s capable of 40-50 FP tonight. Over his past 12 IP, he’s struck out 17 batters to just one BB.
The Braves have the highest total of the slate (5 runs) and while Vince Velasquez has been a dynamic pitcher in the past, his 2021 numbers aren’t great. His painfully high walk rate (6.38 BB/9) and high FIP/xFIP (6.13/4.62) could be a huge problem against an admittedly circular Braves lineup that features some of the best batters in baseball vs. RHP, including Ronald Acuna ($4,400), Freddie Freeman ($4,000), a switch-hitting Ozzie Albies ($3,300) and value-laden Austin Riley ($2,500). There’s also Marcell Ozuna ($3,500) and young C William Contreras ($2,800). The top MLB DFS guys from Atlanta are not chap, so I’ll probably make some different combos of four-man stacks with Anderson and a few with Garrett Richards.
I thought the Astros would be more expensive, honestly, but the pricing hasn’t caught up to just how hot Alex Bregman ($3,600) is getting. Bregman’s .420 wOBA this season vs. LHP is a number that’s actually come down since 2019 — when it was .430 from 2018-19. The team’s wRC+ is 124 over the past 14 days, a mark equaled only by the Yankees, who have seen their bats heat up behind a rejuvenated Giancarlo Stanton. Yordan Alvarez ($3,700) is a lefty who mashes lefties and both Yulieski Gurriel ($2,900) and Carlos Correa ($3,100) have massive HR upside in a lineup that produces lots of runs. Did I mention that Jose Altuve ($3,400) has four hits including a HR) in his last nine AB? Even Michael Brantley ($3,000) works just fine as a contrarian LHB play as the No. 2 hitter in a 1-4 stack here, and nobody’s price is too outrageous.
We know that Bregman mashes lefties, but only Nolan Arenado (.460 wOBA, but with the boost of Mile-High home games) and J.D. Martinez and his .457 wOBA ($4,300) have done more against LHP since 2017. Mrtinex makes foe a great anchor in a four-man Red Sox stack that also includes Rafael Devers ($3,500) — who boats a .410 wOBA in 30 AB vs. LHP this season — Xander Bogaerts ($3,600) and the sneaky Marwin Gonzalez ($2,400), if he gets another spot near the top of the lineups tonight. Stay tuned to see who gets the final nod in the Red Sox starting nine hitters, but a core of Martinez, Devers and Bogaerts is a great start against the inexperienced Lowther, who is bound to struggle against the Sox tonight in Baltimore.
Good luck, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!
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