More Key Injuries in #FantasyFootball and TNF Preliminary Betting Lines are out. Tony “Jigsaw” Cutillo is back with Episode 7 of Spiking the Pigskin to help you with Waiver Wire Priority and TNF Bets!
Best Bets for Monday Night Football and all the Sportsbook Deals you need to WIN. No Big Words. No Drawn Out Summaries. Tony “Jigsaw” Cutillo hits you with some HEAT to help you WIN.
As a golf analyst, one of the questions I am most often asked is what I do differently to others. Fact is, the vast majority of sport bettors will lose money. Bookmakers are not in the business of losing money. Actually, Americans have lost a reported $245billion on sports betting since restrictions loosened in 2018. However, sometimes it is the things you don’t do which are just as important as the actions you do take. I have many years of measured and consistent profit in the betting tips I provide. My hope for you is that, if you do choose to gamble, you do so in a safer and more informed manner. Here are the most common sport betting mistakes which I encounter on a regular basis.
First in the common sport betting mistakes I come across is sport bettors unrealistic expectations. It is great to have goals. It is fantastic to have a dream. Simply put, you are extremely unlikely to get rich quick from gambling. Any website or tipster who advises you that you can gain enormous wealth immediately using their system is lying to you. Yes, you might get lucky and randomly hit one very big parlay. But, in actuality, sports betting is a grind. Any edge that exists is in the margins and is, generally, small.
For example, take my results for the past two years. In the 2022 golf season, I showed a return on investment of +25%. In 2023, we had a return on investment of +33%. That 2023 result would be the equivalent of placing a single bet of -303. Of course this is spread across an entire year, therefore lowering your risk compared to placing one rather large bet.
Sure, those results exceed the performance of the S&P 500. But, that is the result of years of gradual progress. And it places my results in some of the best and most consistent in the golf betting industry.
Therefore, sports gambling should primarily be for fun. You should never, ever, bet more than you can afford to lose. Bankroll management is key. Your maximum bet size should not exceed 1-2% of your total funds you are prepared to invest. Approach it responsibly and with the full knowledge that you could lose everything you put in.
Another common sport betting mistake is known as the gambler’s fallacy. In short, many gamblers believe that prior results mean a future result is near guaranteed to happen. Roulette provides perhaps the easiest analogy. If a black number has fallen 7 times in a row, some gamblers will believe that the next number should surely be red. After all, the roulette wheel will fall on red and black roughly the same percentage of the time right?
The fact is, each spin of the roulette wheel is a completely independent event. The wheel does not remember that the last 7 spins were black. Your odds are still exactly the same. For red or black, that is 48.65% for a single zero wheel (and don’t even get me started on people who choose to play a wheel with two zeroes!) Over a long period of time, it will trend towards that number. But most gamblers seem to think in a very short timeframe.
Of course, in sport betting, recent form is still a very important factor to consider. However, you should focus on self-awareness and avoid falling into the trap of gambler’s fallacy. No golfer is ever “due” to win. Also, just because a golfer won last week doesn’t mean they are less likely to win the following week because they got their “usual” one win for the year. Each tournament is a new event, on a different golf course, in variable conditions, and with a new field. Your bets should be based in evidence and research. Be precise and measured in your approach.
Perhaps the most common error I find sport bettors making is confusing probability and value. First, we need to understand what expected value is. This uses elements of game theory and implied probability.
Every time you place a bet, that bet has an expected value. Going back to the roulette example, on a single zero wheel the expected value is -2.7%. That is to say that, over time, you can expect to lose 2.7% of your gambled amount. This is calculated as the 37 possible numbers on the wheel, where 19 results being losing bets and the other 18 being where you double your amount bet.
The only way to consistently win at sport betting is to place bets with a positive expected value. My role is to provide you with selections where the odds on offer are not a fair reflection of the golfer’s actual chances. For example, if Rory McIlroy is given odds of +1900 to win a golf tournament, the bookmaker is saying he has a 5% chance to win that tournament. However, if our research and projections show that he actually has a 7% chance to win the tournament then an opportunity exists. That +2% difference between the implied odds and the projected probability is the small margins I allude to.
I often find people confuse probability and value. Some will make statements claiming a certain golfer will never win. Others will say that one golfer is much more likely to win than another. Those statements can both be true. However, the odds often reflect this reality. The better golfer is more than likely lower odds as a result. Instead, you are better to simply remain focused whether each set of odds truly reflect the probability of that event occurring.
It amazes me how many sports bettors do not track their bets. And that likely means that you actually already know you are losing money sport betting.
Unfortunately, this is also all too common from multiple touts. I surmise that, more often than not, the reason they don’t is because they are afraid to look. Find tipsters that you respect and enjoy reading, but also look for those that transparently publish their profit and loss for better or worse.
Can you imagine a business that never calculated what it was spending and what it revenue was? Undoubtedly, the future of that business would be untenable. You should take the same approach with your sport betting. Be transparent and honest with yourself. If you are ok losing money sport betting and are doing so responsibly whilst gaining enjoyment, then that is fine. That is something for you to decide. If you are determined to try make a little money sport betting, then you should know where you are to determine where you are trying to go.
Sportsbooks will produce a profit and loss statement for you. I prefer a more manual approach, as there is useful data to be gained from knowing specifically what type of bets win and learning from mistakes I’ve made. Either way, you should know what you are spending and where.
Let’s face it. Sportsbooks likely know more than you do. After all, it is their job and sole reason for existence. They have teams of highly skilled experts covering every sport, limiting their exposure, and complicated algorithms to project likely outcomes. They are likely investing more time into research and models than you are. If not for time, their models are likely better than yours.
Have you accurately assessed every golfer in the field, the type of golf course they are playing, what the weather conditions will be, and any and all other factors potentially impacting on the event? Hand on heart, I would struggle to ever say I’ve taken every single possible factor into account. Some factors are also simply unknown. Take when Erik Van Rooyen won for us in 2023 at 80/1. I had no idea when I recommended the bet that this factor was in play:
Scottie Scheffler doesn’t care about that funny feeling in your stomach that tells you he is going to play well this week. Too often, I see people celebrating bets they won which they placed on a “hunch”. You should avoid like the plague any touts who use language like “I’ve got a feeling” too often. Sports betting isn’t based on feelings. In fact, it should be as emotionless as possible.
Don’t bet on players because you like them and think you are a successful sport bettor. Conversely, don’t fade players simply because you dislike them. It should be a statistical and analytical approach. You are looking for opportunities where the chance of the golfer winning is greater than their odds suggest.
Much akin to tracking your bets, you should also be methodical in your approach to sport betting. One big error I see punters make is placing too many bets. Just because a tournament is on, doesn’t mean that you have to bet it. In certain events, I won’t produce any tips. Commonly, this is because the field is too small and there exists no statistical edge to any bet as the hold the books have is simply too strong. In other circumstances, we might have poor or incomplete date for many golfers in a weaker field as they do not play enough higher profile tournaments.
Following a system prevents such errors as suddenly betting significantly more after a big win. Infinitely worse is those who are chasing losses. When you’ve lost more money than you are comfortable, you need to appreciate that the money is gone. Throwing more money on the fire is rarely going to put it out. Instead, take the time to reflect on your gambling and whether it is at a level that is actually sustainable and safe for you.
By being consistent and methodical in your approach, you can mitigate this risk. I follow a system with clear unit sizing based on the perceived edge we have between the implied odds and projected probability. I typically select between 5-8 golfers each week where the highest expected value exists. This does not vary week to week. As you increase your bankroll, you can begin to slowly increase your stake as long as you remain below your total weekly limit of % of your bankroll.
It should go without saying, but you need to shop your odds. I appreciate this can be frustrating, as it often results in needing multiple accounts with different bookmakers to obtain the best odds.
However, as already noted, we so often operate under small margins in sport betting. The difference between a golfer being priced +2000 and +2500 looks small on paper. What that really means is you have given up a free 1% of implied probability. The lower the odds, the smaller deviation from the best odds is required to provide a rather substantial difference.
This cuts directly into your margin and potential profit. There are many websites out there which will give you an overview of what odds each bookmaker is offering for an event. Use them.
With all my selections, I provide detailed information of the exact odds used and where they were obtained at time of publication. This makes it easy for you and gives you the peace of mind that you’re backing a selection with a positive expected value.
If you can find better odds than I have published at another reputable bookmaker, then even better! But do be careful with golf betting and place terms for each-way bets, as these can affect the implied probability even though the headline number may be the same.
If you are determined to be a better sports bettor, one of the best things you can do is to invest in a WinDaily Sports premium membership.
Yes, my selections have been proven to be profitable over a substantial period. I don’t promise that you will get rich quick. But, we have shown to turn a profit consistently over time and I can guarantee you will have fun along the way. You can have all the thrill of cheering on your golfers each week, with less risk and time than doing the extensive research required yourself.
You gain access to all of our premium golf articles with betting tips and DFS player pools, but also premium access to ALL sports that WinDaily Sports cover. With experts in nearly every field, no one provides better value.
However, one of the best aspects of a premium membership is access to our premium Discord channel.
You will be able to receive one-on-one coaching with myself and others, as well as asking me directly any questions you have.
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Welcome to Cash with Flash Best Bets Sunday MLB Betting Column. We’re excited to be here and we’ll try and write in this space as often as time allows.
Saturday was a losing day as we lost with the underdog Royals but won at -110 with the Reds. That leaves us with a 50-44-11 mark over the history of this 2021 MLB Betting column.
We’re ahead of the game because of the 30 underdogs and several short favorites we hit. Well over half of our wins were from wagering on underdogs and without them we’d be trending in the wrong direction. That’s something we don’t want to do.
The most important thing to remember when betting on baseball is finding underdogs as it takes a 52.4 percent success rate at -110 just to break even. This column will offer a mixture of mid to short favorites (-110 to -160) as well as underdogs at +200 and below.
We’re also looking at F5 inning wagers in order to eliminate bullpens, the church league softball extra-inning, man on second base and seven-inning doubleheader rules MLB has thrust upon us.
Sunday MLB Best Bets!
Unless otherwise indicated, all wagers are First Five Innings Wagers (F5).
In order to arrive at our conclusions, we’ll be using the principles found in Betting Baseball 101
Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets
Game three of a three-game series takes place today at 1:10 pm. The series is split 1-1 and New York holds a 3-2 season series edge.
Vladimir Gutierez (5-3, 4.75) is expected to make the start today and over his last 16.1 innings of work has allowed nine earned runs with six strikeouts. He’ll face a Mets offense with a 24 percent strikeout rate, .149 ISO and wRC+ of 94 against right-handed pitching this season.
Marcus Stroman (7-9, 2.63) should make the start today and he’s allowed four earned runs with 14 strikeouts over his last 18 innings pitched. He’s up against a Reds offense with a 23 percent strikeout rate alongside a .176 ISO and wRC+ of 105 against righties this season.
Cash with Flash Sunday MLB Pick: Reds +155
Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays
Game three of a three-game scheduled series takes place tonight at 7:05 pm. Tampa Bay can sweep the series with a victory and the season series is all knotted up at 4-4.
Nick Pivetta (8-4, 4.51) should make the start tonight and over his previous 15.1 innings pitched has allowed a dozen earned runs with 11 strikeouts. He’ll meet a Rays offense with a 26 percent strikeout rate, .187 ISO and wRC+ of 110 against righties this season.
Shane McClanahan (4-4, 3.93) is set to toe the rubber tonight and over his past 15 innings pitched has surrendered five earned runs with 18 strikeouts. He’s up against a Boston offense with a 22 percent strikeout rate, .172 ISO and wRC+ of 103 against left-handed pitching this season.
Cash with Flash Sunday MLB Pick: Boston +115
Good luck today!
Welcome to Cash with Flash Best Bets Saturday MLB Betting Column. We’re excited to be here and we’ll try and write in this space as often as time allows.
Friday was a terrific day as we went 2-0 and won both of our underdogs. That leaves us with a 49-43-11 mark over the history of this 2021 MLB Betting column.
We’re ahead of the game because of the 30 underdogs and several short favorites we hit. Well over half of our wins were from wagering on underdogs and without them we’d be trending in the wrong direction. That’s something we don’t want to do.
The most important thing to remember when betting on baseball is finding underdogs as it takes a 52.4 percent success rate at -110 just to break even. This column will offer a mixture of mid to short favorites (-110 to -160) as well as underdogs at +200 and below.
We’re also looking at F5 inning wagers in order to eliminate bullpens, the church league softball extra-inning, man on second base and seven-inning doubleheader rules MLB has thrust upon us.
Saturday MLB Best Bets!
Unless otherwise indicated, all wagers are First Five Innings Wagers (F5).
In order to arrive at our conclusions, we’ll be using the principles found in Betting Baseball 101
Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays
Game two of a three-game series begins this afternoon at 3:07 pm. Toronto won game one but Kansas City holds a 3-2 season series edge.
Mike Minor (8-8, 5.32) should toe the rubber this afternoon and over his past 16 innings pitched has given up nine earned runs with 14 punchouts. He’ll meet a Toronto offense with a 22 percent strikeout rate, .180 ISO and wRC+ of 109 against left-handed pitching this season.
Alek Manoah (2-1, 2.90) is set to make the start today and over his last 16.2 innings pitched has allowed two earned runs with 25 strikeouts. He’s up against a Royals offense with a 22 percent strikeout rate alongside a .143 ISO and wRC+ of 87 against right-handed pitching this season.
Cash with Flash Saturday MLB Pick: Royals +180
Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets
Game two of a three-game series is set to begin tonight at 7:10 pm. The Reds won game one and the season series is tied 2-2.
Wade Miley (8-4, 2.86) is expected to start tonight and over his previous 18.2 innings pitched has allowed four earned runs with 14 strikeouts. He’ll face a Mets offense with a 25 percent strikeout rate, .148 ISO and wRC+ of 100 against left-handed pitching this season.
Rich Hill (6-4, 3.95) should make the start and over his past 14 innings pitched has surrendered nine earned runs with seven earned runs. He’ll meet a Reds offense with a 24 percent strikeout rate, .150 ISO and wRC+ of 88 against lefties this season.
Cash with Flash Saturday Pick: Reds -100
Good luck today!
Welcome to Cash with Flash Best Bets Wednesday MLB Betting Column. We’re excited to be here and we’ll try and write in this space as often as time allows.
Tuesday was another solid day as we went 2-0 with our picks. That leaves us with a 46-42-11 mark over the history of this 2021 MLB Betting column.
We’re ahead of the game because of the 27 underdogs and several short favorites we hit. Over half of our wins were from wagering on underdogs and without them we’d be trending in the wrong direction. That’s something we don’t want to do.
The most important thing to remember when betting on baseball is finding underdogs as it takes a 52.4 percent success rate at -110 just to break even. This column will offer a mixture of mid to short favorites (-110 to -160) as well as underdogs at +200 and below.
We’re also looking at F5 inning wagers in order to eliminate bullpens, the church league softball extra-inning, man on second base and seven-inning doubleheader rules MLB has thrust upon us.
Wednesday MLB Best Bets!
Unless otherwise indicated, all wagers are First Five Innings Wagers (F5).
In order to arrive at our conclusions, we’ll be using the principles found in Betting Baseball 101
Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins
Game three of a three-game scheduled series is set to begin today at 1:10 pm. The series is tied at 1-1 and Minnesota leads the season series 8-6.
Wily Peralta (3-2, 2.56) should make the start tonight and over his past 17.2 innings pitched has allowed six earned runs with nine strikeouts. He’s up against a Twins offense with a 22.5 percent strikeout rate alongside a .182 ISO and wRC+ of 102 against right-handed pitching this season.
J.A. Happ (5-5, 6.14) is the Twins probable starting pitcher and has allowed 14 earned runs with 16 strikeouts over his last 20 innings pitched. He’ll meet a Tigers offense with a 27 percent strikeout rate along with a .144 ISO and wRC+ of 90 against left-handed pitching this season.
Cash with Flash Wednesday MLB Pick: Tigers +112
Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets
Game four of a five-game series takes place tonight at 7:10 pm. Atlanta holds a 2-1 series lead and the season series is tied at 7-7.
Max Fried (7-6, 4.46) is scheduled to make the start tonight and over his past 17 innings pitched has allowed seven earned runs with 18 strikeouts. He’s up against a Mets offense with a 24 percent strikeout rate .148 ISO and wRC+ of 99 this season against left-handed pitching.
Tyler Megill (1-0, 2.10) should make the start tonight and over his past 15.2 innings pitched has allowed one earned run with 14 punchouts. He’ll meet a Braves offense with a 25 percent strikeout rate, .186 ISO and wRC+ of 95 against right-handed pitching this season.
Cash with Flash Wednesday MLB Pick: Braves +104
Good luck today!
Welcome to Cash with Flash Best Bets Tuesday MLB Betting Column. We’re excited to be here and we’ll try and write in this space as often as time allows.
Monday was a strong day as we went 2-0 with our picks. That leaves us with a 44-42-11 mark over the history of this 2021 MLB Betting column.
We’re ahead of the game because of the 25 underdogs and several short favorites we hit. Over half of our wins were from wagering on underdogs and without them we’d be trending in the wrong direction. That’s something we don’t want to do.
The most important thing to remember when betting on baseball is finding underdogs as it takes a 52.4 percent success rate at -110 just to break even. This column will offer a mixture of mid to short favorites (-110 to -160) as well as underdogs at +200 and below.
We’re also looking at F5 inning wagers in order to eliminate bullpens, the church league softball extra-inning, man on second base and seven-inning doubleheader rules MLB has thrust upon us.
Tuesday MLB Best Bets!
Unless otherwise indicated, all wagers are First Five Innings Wagers (F5).
In order to arrive at our conclusions, we’ll be using the principles found in Betting Baseball 101
Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies
Game two of a four-game series takes place tonight at 7:05 pm. Philadelphia has a 1-0 series lead and leads the season series 5-4.
Erick Fedde (4-7, 4.88) is expected to make the start tonight and over his past 12.1 innings pitched has allowed nine earned runs with a dozen strikeouts. He’ll face a Phillies offense with a 24 percent strikeout rate, .158 ISO and wRC+ of 89 against right-handed pitching this season.
Matt Moore (0-2, 5.79) is the Phillies probable starting pitcher and over his last 14.2 innings pitched has allowed ten earned runs with 14 punchouts. He’s up against a Nationals offense with a 22 percent strikeout rate, .175 ISO and wRC+ of 112 this season against left-handed pitching.
Cash with Flash Tuesday MLB Pick: +103
New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays
Game one of a three-game series begins tonight at 7:10 pm and Tampa Bay holds a season series edge of 8-5.
Jordan Montgomery (3-5, 3.96) is expected to make the start tonight and over his last 18.1 innings of work has allowed six earned runs with 19 strikeouts. He’s up against a Rays offense with a 27 percent strikeout rate alongside a .153 ISO and wRC+ of 92 against left-handed pitching this season.
Shane McClanhan (4-3, 3.88) should make the start tonight and over his previous 14.1 innings pitched has surrendered five earned runs with 17 strikeouts. He’s facing a Yankees offense with a 23.5 percent strikeout rate alongside a .174 ISO and wRC+ of 112 against lefties this season.
Cash with Flash Tuesday MLB Pick: Yankees +125
Good luck today!
Welcome to Cash with Flash Best Bets Sunday MLB Betting Column. We’re excited to be here and we’ll try and write in this space as often as time allows.
Saturday saw a slight profit as we hit with the underdog Atlanta Braves. That leaves us with a 42-40-11 mark over the history of this 2021 MLB Betting column.
We’re ahead of the game because of the 23 underdogs and several short favorites we hit. Over half of our wins were from wagering on underdogs and without them we’d be trending in the wrong direction. That’s something we don’t want to do.
The most important thing to remember when betting on baseball is finding underdogs as it takes a 52.4 percent success rate at -110 just to break even. This column will offer a mixture of mid to short favorites (-110 to -160) as well as underdogs at +200 and below.
We’re also looking at F5 inning wagers in order to eliminate bullpens, the church league softball extra-inning, man on second base and seven-inning doubleheader rules MLB has thrust upon us.
Sunday MLB Best Bets!
Unless otherwise indicated, all wagers are First Five Innings Wagers (F5).
In order to arrive at our conclusions, we’ll be using the principles found in Betting Baseball 101
Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies
Game four of a scheduled four-game series starts today at 1:05 pm. Atlanta holds a 2-1 series lead but Philadelphia holds the season series lead 8-7.
Touki Toussaint (1-0, 1.35) should make the start today and over his past 6.2 innings pitched has surrendered one earned run with five strikeouts. He’ll meet a Phillies offense with a 24 percent strikeout rate, .157 ISO and wRC+ of 89 against right-handed pitching.
Aaron Nola (6-6, 4.64) is the Phillies probable starting pitcher and over his last 16 innings pitched has allowed 15 earned runs with 24 strikeouts. He’ll face a Braves offense with a 25 percent strikeout rate, .157 ISO and wRC+ of 101 against righties this season.
Cash with Flash Sunday MLB Pick: Braves +158
Oakland Athletics vs Seattle Mariners
Game four of a four-game series is set to begin today at 4:10 pm. Seattle has a 2-1 series lead and also holds a 5-4 season series edge.
Cole Irvin (7-8, 3.42) should make the start today and over the past 19 innings pitched has allowed five earned runs with 13 strikeouts. He’ll face a Mariners offense with a 27 percent strikeout rate, .171 ISO and wRC+ of 89 against left-handed pitching this season.
Marco Gonzales (2-5, 5.69) is the Seattle starting pitcher and over his previous 14 innings pitched has allowed a dozen earned runs with ten strikeouts. He’s up against an Oakland offense with a 23 percent strikeout rate, .170 ISO and wRC+ of 102 against lefties this season.
Cash with Flash Sunday MLB Pick: Oakland -125
Welcome to Cash with Flash Best Bets Wednesday MLB Betting Column. We’re excited to be here and we’ll try and write in this space as often as time allows.
Tuesday was another good day as we went 1-1 including the win with the underdog Yankees. That leaves us with a 37-37-11 mark over the history of this 2021 MLB Betting column.
We’re ahead of the game because of the 20 underdogs and several short favorites we hit. Over half of our wins were from wagering on underdogs and without them we’d be trending in the wrong direction. That’s something we don’t want to do.
The most important thing to remember when betting on baseball is finding underdogs as it takes a 52.4 percent success rate at -110 just to break even. This column will offer a mixture of mid to short favorites (-110 to -160) as well as underdogs at +200 and below.
We’re also looking at F5 inning wagers in order to eliminate bullpens, the church league softball extra-inning, man on second base and seven-inning doubleheader rules MLB has thrust upon us.
Wednesday MLB Best Bets!
Unless otherwise indicated, all wagers are First Five Innings Wagers (F5).
In order to arrive at our conclusions, we’ll be using the principles found in Betting Baseball 101
Chicago Cubs vs St Louis Cardinals
Game three of a four-game scheduled series takes place tonight at 7:15 pm. The series is tied at 1-1 with Chicago holding a season series edge of 7-3.
Kyle Hendricks (12-4, 3.65) is set to make the start tonight and over his past 18.1 innings pitched has surrendered four earned runs with ten strikeouts. He’s up against a Cardinals offense with a 22 percent strikeout rate alongside a .149 ISO and wRC+ of 85 against right-handed pitching this season.
Adam Wainwright (7-6, 3.71) should make the start tonight and over his previous 19 innings pitched has allowed nine earned runs with 14 strikeouts. He’ll face a Cubs offense with a 27 percent strikeout rate, .166 ISO and wRC+ of 86 against right-handed pitching this season.
Cash with Flash Wednesday MLB Pick: Cubs +108
New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds
Game three of a three-game series takes place this afternoon at 12:35 pm. The series along with the season series is tied at 1-1.
Marcus Stroman (6-8, 2.79) is the Mets probable starting pitcher and over his past 15 innings pitched has allowed eight earned runs with eight punchouts. He’ll meet a Reds offense with a 23 percent strikeout rate, .172 ISO and wRC+ of 104 this season against right-handed pitching.
Jeff Hoffman (3-4, 4.61) is the Reds probable starting pitcher and over his past 10.1 innings of work has let in five earned runs with a dozen strikeouts. He’ll face a Mets offense with a 24 percent strikeout rate along with a .150 ISO and wRC+ of 94 against righties this season.
Cash with Flash Wednesday MLB Pick: Mets -150
Good luck today!
Welcome to Cash with Flash Best Bets Monday MLB Betting Column. We’re excited to be here and we’ll try and write in this space as often as time allows.
Sunday was awful as we went 0-2 with our picks. That leaves us with a 35-35-11 mark over the history of this 2021 MLB Betting column.
We’re ahead of the game because of the 18 underdogs and several short favorites we hit. Half of our wins were from wagering on underdogs and without them we’d be trending in the wrong direction. That’s something we don’t want to do.
The most important thing to remember when betting on baseball is finding underdogs as it takes a 52.4 percent success rate at -110 just to break even. This column will offer a mixture of mid to short favorites (-110 to -160) as well as underdogs at +200 and below.
We’re also looking at F5 inning wagers in order to eliminate bullpens, the church league softball extra-inning, man on second base and seven-inning doubleheader rules MLB has thrust upon us.
Monday MLB Best Bets!
Unless otherwise indicated, all wagers are First Five Innings Wagers (F5).
In order to arrive at our conclusions, we’ll be using the principles found in Betting Baseball 101
Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays
Game one of a three-game scheduled series is set to take place tonight at 7:07 pm. Boston holds a 5-4 season series edge.
Nick Pivetta (7-4, 4.30) should make the start tonight and over his last 15.1 innings pitched has allowed ten earned runs with 19 strikeouts. He’s up against a Toronto offense with a 21.5 percent strikeout rate alongside a .196 ISO and wRC+ of 115 against right-handed pitching this season.
Ross Stripling (3-5, 4.34) is expected to make the start tonight and over his previous 9.1 innings pitched has allowed seven earned runs with 13 punchouts. He’ll face a Boston offense with a 24 percent strikeout rate, .185 and wRC+ of 103 against righties this season.
Cash with Flash Monday MLB Pick: Boston +114
Texas Rangers vs Detroit Tigers
Game one of a four-game scheduled series takes place tonight at 7:10 pm. Detroit has a season series lead of 2-1.
Kyle Gibson (6-1, 2.29) is the Rangers probable starting pitcher and has allowed six earned runs with 24 strikeouts over his past 19 innings pitched. He’s up against a Detroit offense with a 28 percent strikeout rate along with a .151 ISO and wRC+ of 89 against right-handed pitching this season.
Casey Mize (5-5, 3.59) is the Tigers probable starting pitcher and over his past 13 innings pitched has allowed five earned runs with 11 strikeouts. He’ll face a Rangers offense with a 24 percent strikeout rate, .151 ISO and wRC+ of 89 this season against righties.
Cash with Flash Monday MLB Picks: Texas -124
Good luck today!
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