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10/11 DFS Diamonds: DFS Pro J.P. on Week 6 NFL

Coby Williams 5 years ago

written by Coby Williams

To those of you that don’t recognize me, I go by JPrellezo on FanDuel and DraftKings, but you can call me Javi. My goal here in the 10/11 DFS column is to assist you in becoming more successful and profitable with some fantasy gold. I’ll go through what works for me and I hope I can guide you to the Promised Land!

Iwant to focus this article on a deep dive into NFL Week 6 and guide you to winbig. I will go game by game with my takes on each game along with my core andvalue plays for Week 6.

Deep Dive and Top Plays

Cowboys vs. Jets

I’mgoing to start with this game because you may not know this, but I’m a big Cowboysfan. In this game, the Cowboys are coming off two straight losses to actualcompetition and are looking to end this streak. Sam Darnold is back, which bumpsup the projections and values of a few players, but I’ll be on the Cowboys sidefor the most part.

Cowboys – The Jets rankin the middle of the pack for defense and have been pretty solid behind a pouroffense that was being run by Luke Falk. The Cowboys are projecting fora bounce back game and I’m high on Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup. TheCowboys thrive against bad teams and I’d expect them to continue theirdominance against bad teams.

Jets – Sam Darnold is back, which means JamisonCrowder and Le’Veon Bell receive a boost in projections. In Week 1, JamisonCrowder had 10+ targets and had quite a game. Bell was also used in thepassing game and on the field for 100% of their offensive snaps. Le’Veon Bell will garner some ownershipand he’s projecting well over 20% for Week 6, but I won’t be that high on him.Yes, the Cowboys defense allowed 4 TDs to Aaron Jones, but the Dallas defenseis pretty solid and should bounce back against a poor Jets team.

10/11 DFS Core Plays

FanDuel
- Michael Gallup, WR, DAL – $6,100
- Ezekiel Elliott, RB, DAL – $8,500
DraftKings
- Amari Cooper, WR, DAL – $7,000
- Michael Gallup, WR, DAL – $5,600
- Dak Prescott, QB, DAL – $6,200

10/11 DFS Value Plays

FanDuel
- Jamison Crowder, WR, NYJ – $5,400
DraftKings
- Le’Veon Bell, RB, NYJ – $6,400
- Jamison Crowder, WR, NYJ – $4,000
- Michael Gallup, WR, DAL – $5,600

49ers vs. Rams

Thisgame is probably 1 of 3 games that I won’t be focusing on as much. I believethat this is a tough game to predict due to which LA Rams defense will show upthis Sunday. Jameis Winston had a field day against the Rams a few weeks agoand the Rams don’t look solid at all. Meanwhile, the 49ers are looking like oneof the best teams in the NFL and the defense might be legit. It’s still early,but time will tell.

49ers – I like the 49ers side for value, but it is very difficult to predict which Wide Receivers will perform as Jimmy Garoppolo loves to spread the ball around. George Kittle is severely underpriced and I’ll definitely have some shares on DraftKings. I also like the price tag of Marquise Goodwin on FanDuel. As for the running backs, I’m at a complete fade given how many they are using right now. I’d use them in GPPs, but a definite fade in cash.

Rams – Besides all our questions surrounding Gurley and his usage, we’re also wondering about Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods. Cooper Kupp is settling in as Jared Goff’s favorite WR, but everyone else seems to be a big question mark. I do like the price tag for Robert Woods, but I’m not high on the Rams side given the rejuvenation of the 49ers defense.

10/11 DFS Core Plays

FanDuel
- George Kittle, TE, SF – $6,500
- Cooper Kupp, WR, LAR – $7,800
- Robert Woods, WR, LAR – $7,100
DraftKings
- George Kittle, TE, SF – $5,200
- Jared Goff, QB, LAR – $6,100
- Robert Woods, WR, LAR – $5,600

10/11 DFS Value Plays

FanDuel
- Marquise Goodwin, WR, SF – $5,200
- Tevin Coleman, RB, SF – $5,000
DraftKings
- Todd Gurley, RB, LAR – $6,200
- Tevin Coleman, RB, SF – $4,400
- Marquise Goodwin, WR, SF – $4,500
- Gerald Everett, TE, LAR – $3,600

Saints vs. Jaguars

Thishas the potential to be the sneakiest game of the slate, but I believe it’smore a GPP game stack then cash game. The New Orleans Saints defense is middleof the pack , but have one of the best run defenses in all of football. Meanwhile, the Jaguars defense is a shell ofits former self and ranks towards the bottom of the NFL. With two weak pass defenses,this has the potential to be a higher scoring game.

Saints – Is Teddy Bridgewater the real deal? He could be getting into the swing of things, but only time will tell. You can use him and Michael Thomas in GPP’s, but my main focus is going to be Alvin Kamara. He will be the only Saints player with most of my exposure.

Jaguars – I believe in Minshew Mania. That’s the first point I want to get across before I dive into this. DJ Chark is priced a little too high for me right now given his recent success so I won’t be using him in as many lineups except for my Gardner Minshew stacks in GPP’s. The value play for me will be Dede Westbrook. He is still a vital part of the passing game and he’s a solid salary saver. As for Leonard Fournette, he projects well, but this Saints run defense is the real deal and I won’t be as high on him. He does have high usage in this Jaguars offense, but the defense and price tag make me shy away from him. On DraftKings, I’m more on Fournette and Chark because of their price tags.

10/11 DFS Core Plays

FanDuel
- Alvin Kamara, RB, NO – $7,900
- Dede Westbrook, WR, JAX – 5,400
DraftKings
- Alvin Kamara, RB, NO – $8,000
- Leonard Fournette, RB , JAX – $6,700
- Gardner Minshew, QB, JAX – $5,000

10/11 DFS Value Plays

FanDuel
- Dede Westbrook, WR, JAX – 5,400
DraftKings
- DJ Chark, WR, JAX – $5,500
- Dede Westbrook, WR, JAX – $5,100

Seahawks vs. Browns

This isanother interesting game that I will have some pieces for my lineups, but alower amount of stacks. My favorite play of this slate is from this gamebecause of his price tag and usage and he will be in a lot of my GPP and cashlineups. Also, we see a pretty steep discount on Odell Beckham.

Seahawks – This is the moment you’ve been waiting for. My core play of the entire slate. Are you ready? If you listened to my podcast yesterday, you’ll know that I love the price tag of Tyler Lockett and he is going to be locked and loaded in my cash lineups along with most of my GPP lineups. Chris Carson has a pretty nice price tag, but I want to see one more solid game before I roster him in multiple lineups. D.K. Metcalf is also interesting to me, but I’ll mainly be on Lockett. Matt Breida and Tevin Coleman did just run all over this defense so I can see the case for Chris Carson, but I don’t trust him given his ball security issues.

Browns – If there is to be a bounce back game for the Browns, I think this might be the one. I see them trailing for a good portion of this game so they will be passing the ball a ton. Odell Beckham is at a discount and I’ll lock him in GPP lineups until I see more consistency. I’m mainly off the Browns for this game except for tournaments.

10/11 DFS Core Plays

FanDuel
- Tyler Lockett, WR, SEA – $6,300
- Odell Beckham, WR, CLE – $7,600
DraftKings
- Tyler Lockett, WR, SEA – $6,400
- Odell Beckham, WR, CLE – $6,800

10/11 DFS Value Plays

FanDuel
- Tyler Lockett, WR, SEA – $6,300
- D.K. Metcalf – WR, SEA – $5,800
DraftKings
- Chris Carson, RB, SEA – $6,000
- D.K. Metcalf , WR, SEA – $4,700

Titans vs. Broncos

Thisgame is a fade for me. Since I’m doing 150 lineups on the Milly Makertournaments on FanDuel and DraftKings, I’ll have 1 or 2 stacks for each team,but I am far from a fan of this game.

Titans – The only two things I’m considering for the Titans are using their DST and a few Derrick Henry lineups. With a low Vegas total, this team is not a focus for me.

Broncos – Another low Vegas total for the Broncos and until they have someone other than Joe Flacco throwing to Emmanuel Sanders or Courtland Sutton, they are a fade. Sutton and Sanders do have a nice number of targets, but I’m not a fan because of Flacco. They are pretty much a fade for me.

10/11 DFS Core Plays

FanDuel
- Derrick Henry, RB, TEN – $6,700
DraftKings
- Derrick Henry, RB, TEN – $6,100

10/11 DFS Value Plays

FanDuel
- Delanie Walker, TE, TEN – $5,200
- Courtland Sutton, WR, DEN – $5,900
- Emmanuel Sanders, WR, DEN – $5,500
- Royce Freeman, RB, DEN – $5,200
DraftKings
- Delanie Walker, TE, TEN – $3,700
- Courtland Sutton, WR, DEN – $5,000
- Emmanuel Sanders, WR, DEN – $4,800

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Bengals vs. Ravens

I tooka stab at this game in my Wednesday article talking about the Bengals and theirhorrific defense. In my $40,000 victory this past Sunday, I used the Bengals DSTand it hurt my chances at the $100,000. The Bengals rank in the bottom 5 in overall defense and rank 27^thin points allowed.

Ravens – Given Lamar Jackson has struggled the past 2 weeks, I expect a bounce back game. I’m a little off Mark Ingram because of his price tag, but you can use him in GPP as he projects to be under 10% owned. Marquise Brown will garner ownership because of price tag, especially on FanDuel. Mark Andrews is just too cheap on DraftKings to pass up on him

Bengals – Although the Ravens defense is nothing to brag about, the Bengals offense has been struggling since week 2. I’m high on the Ravens defense is season long leagues, but that price tag is way too high in a matchup against a mediocre Bengals offense. The Bengals rank in the bottom 5 in offense as well, but they will be passing a lot this game given they will be trailing from the get go. I’ll have a few lineups with Joe Mixon and Auden Tate on DraftKings because of their price, but my main play in GPP’s will most likely be Tyler Boyd. The Bengals side of this game is not my favorite play, but I’ll have some GPP lineups with them.

CorePlays

FanDuel
- Lamar Jackson, QB, BAL – $8,200
- Marquise Brown, WR, BAL – $5,800 (only on FanDuel)
DraftKings
- Lamar Jackson, QB, BAL – $6,900
- Mark Andrews, TE, BAL – $4,800

ValuePlays

FanDuel
- Joe Mixon, RB, CIN – $6,400
DraftKings
- Auden Tate, WR, CIN – $4,500

Texans vs. Chiefs

I’mgoing to stick with this game as the “Game Stack of the Week”. Both sides will garner ownership given their letit fly mentalities

Texans – DeAndre Hopkins is due to breakout. Plain and simple. Given Will Fuller’s recent performance, I expect DeAndre Hopkins to break out of his funk versus a mediocre Chiefs defense. As always, we are unsure of what’s wrong with the DraftKings pricing model because Carlos Hyde is ridiculously cheap and the best value on the slate.

Chiefs – The same narrative can be said here about Travis Kelce. Kelce has struggled in recent weeks and Patrick Mahomes seems to be human. I’m hoping many shy away from the Chiefs given their price tags, but I’m still high on them this week given Atlanta was passing all over Houston last week. I don’t have Mahomes listed as a core play, but that doesn’t mean I won’t have shares of him.

CorePlays

FanDuel
- DeAndre Hopkins, WR, HOU- $8,400
- Will Fuller, WR, HOU – $6,600
- Travis Kelce, TE, KC – $7,500
DraftKings
- DeAndre Hopkins, WR, HOU – $7,400
- Travis Kelce, TE, KC – $7,000
- Will Fuller, WR, HOU – $6,000
- Deshaun Watson, QB, HOU – $6,700

ValuePlays

FanDuel
- Carlos Hyde, RB, HOU – $6,000
DraftKings
- Deshaun Watson, QB, HOU – $6,700
- Carlos Hyde , RB, HOU – $4,400

Falcons vs. Cardinals

Couldthis be the game that Julio Jones breaks out of his funk? He is one of myfavorite plays of this slate. I honestly think Hooper will go lower owned giventhe Cards shutting down Tyler Eifert, but I’m locking in Hooper as the Falconsare pass happy and I expect lots of targets to head Hooper’s way.

Falcons – Arizona defense is bad. Plain and simple. They arebroken when it comes to defending the TE. I will load up on Falcons stacks as I expect them to continue to be passheavy.

Cardinals – Kyler Murray is coming off his first win and this was without doing as well as we wanted him to. Given the Falcons and Cardinals having two of the worst defenses in the NFL, I’d expect a shootout. This game will most likely be my number two game stack I heavily use. Look for Christian Kirk news because I’ll be loading up on Larry Fitzgerald along with some KeeShan Johnson if Kirk is ruled out.

CorePlays

FanDuel
- Calvin Ridley, WR, ATL – $5,500
- Julio Jones, WR, ATL – $8,500
DraftKings
- Austin Hooper, TE, ATL – $5,000
- Julio Jones, WR, ATL – $8,000
- Matt Ryan, QB, ATL – $6,400

ValuePlays

FanDuel
- Larry Fitzgerald, WR, ARI – $5,600
- Christian Kirk, WR, ARI – $5,600
- Calvin Ridley, WR, ATL – $5,500
DraftKings
- Calvin Ridley, WR, ATL – $5,700
- Christian Kirk, WR, ARI – $5,200 (if active)
- Devonta Freeman, RB, ATL – $5,700

Eagles vs. Vikings

I sidemore with the Vikings side over the Eagles side for this game. Vikings DSTstill ranks as one of the top defenses, but they are susceptible to the pass. Isee the Eagles trailing in this game so they’ll need to pass. Ertz projectswell from the Eagles side.

Eagles – As I mentioned, my main target is Ertz, but Jordan Howard comes in as value on DraftKings given that he seems to have won the feature back role.

Vikings – This is where things get dicey. The Eagles secondary is garbage and Kirk Cousins should have a field day. The question is whether Stefon Diggs will finally have his breakout game. I’m high on him this week given his price tag, but you just never know. I do like Dalvin Cook this week after a down week in Week 5.

CorePlays

FanDuel
- Stefon Diggs, WR, MIN – $5,800
- Zach Ertz, TE, PHI – $6,600
- Dalvin Cook, RB, MIN – $8,200
DraftKings
- Dalvin Cook, RB, MIN – $8,400

ValuePlays

FanDuel
- Stefon Diggs, WR, MIN – $5,800
DraftKings
- Stefon Diggs, WR, MIN – $5,900
- Jordan Howard, RB, PHI – $4,900
- Zach Ertz , TE, PHI – $5,400

Redskins vs. Dolphins

Battle of the defeated! One of my least favorite games, but could be a GPP gold mine. There is value all over the place with this game and both defenses rank towards the bottom. Not much to dive deep into for this game as it has the lowest projected total in Vegas so I’ll keep the value plays on this end. I will have some Case Keenum and Terry McLaurin stacks given the chemistry they’ve had this season.

ValuePlays

FanDuel
- Adrian Peterson, RB, WAS – $5,300
- Preston Williams, WR, MIA – $5,600
DraftKings
- Adrian Peterson, RB, WAS – $4,500
- Preston Williams, WR, MIA – $4,100
- Case Keenum, QB, WAS – $5,000

My rankings for DST are as follows:

Washington Redskins
Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens
New Orleans Saints
Minnesota Vikings

My offenses to target and stacks to focus on are as follows

Houston Texans
Atlanta Falcons
Baltimore Ravens
Dallas Cowboys
Seattle Seahawks
Kansas City Chiefs

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend!

I’ll be in Las Vegas this weekend so I’ll beon and off until Sunday morning, but please contactme with any questions on Twitter @Javi_Prellezo or on our Win Daily Slackchannel!

5 years ago 0 comment

Week 6 DFS TE and DST NFL Picks: Hanging With Mr. Hooper

Andrew Erickson 5 years ago

written by Andrew Erickson

It’s Week 6 DFS in the NFL, and there are plenty of viable TEs to consider, even if the list of DST plays is pretty stingy for cash games and GPPs. Either way, you’ll find the right plays right here at Win Daily Sports!

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Week 6 DFS TightEnd NFL — Cash Game Plays

Austin Hooper, ATL at ARI

FD ($6,400) DK ($5,000)

Hooper gets the most favorable matchup on the board, as he’s facing the Cardinals –who possess the league-worst defense against the tight end position. The former Stanford Cardinal – who has 20 targets over his last two games and 42 on the season – may even take exception to this group hawking his Alma Mater’s Cardinal name! But really – the price is reasonable, and the Falcons game plan has consisted of flowing their passing game through Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, as well as feeding Hooper. The fast pace of this game should lead to another 8-10 targets and plenty of scoring opportunities.

Travis Kelce, KC vs. HOU

FD ($7,500) DK ($7,000)

Kelce and the Chiefs are coming off a bizarre loss to the Colts that saw the standout TE garner the most targets of the season (10) but post his lowest fantasy output (4-70-0) of 2019. That should change against the Texans, who have solid numbers vs. TEs but will be doing plenty of scoring themselves. This game has the highest total in the main slate, and Kelce is a lock-and-load cash or GPP play regardless of his high price.

George Kittle, SF at LAR

FD ($6,500) DK ($5,200)

Kittle led the 49ers in targets and receiving on Monday against the Browns and got “off the schneid” with his first TD of the season – showing he’s still capable of being Jimmy Garoppolo’s go-to guy. He’s definitely a Top 3 TE this week and worthy of cash game consideration since he’s still a pretty good bargain relative to Kelce, who has similar if slightly better upside and floor.

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Week 6 DFS Tight End NFL —GPP Plays

Mark Andrews, BAL vs. CIN

FD ($6,300) DK ($4,800)

Andrews is now nursing a shoulder injury (it was his foot before) butreturned to practice Thursday and makes a lot of sense as a GPP option thisweek against the Bengals. He’s ben alarmingly consistent in terms of targetsper week through five games (8,9,7,8,7) and makes for a high-upside, moderate-riskoption at a position where there just aren’t a lot of exciting plays outside theTop 10 at the position.

Will Dissly, SEA at CLE

FD ($6,000) DK ($4,900)

Dissly is an efficient receiver (23 catches on 26 targets this season)and is coming off of his highest yardage total of 2019, with 4-81-0 against theRams last week. The Browns were embarrassed by Kittle and the 49ers last weekand they don’t stand much of a chance in stopping Russell Wilson and his bevyof physical targets. He’ll be a core build in my Seahawks GPP stacks.

Zach Ertz, PHI at MIN

FD ($6,600) DK ($5,400)

Ertz is probably viable in cash if you really feel likely usinghim, but he’s more of a GPP play against the Vikings, who have better LBs and aball-hawking strong safety in Anthony Harris, who’s already earned an NFC Defensive Player of the Week in 2019 for his work versus the Falconsin Week 1. Sure, Hooper had a good game that week, but he didn’t find the endzone and the Falcons receivers are in ever way superior to the Eagles wideouts –so Harris may have been a little more focused on them when he wasn’t in man coverageagainst Hooper. Ertz is still a Top 5 TE in all formats and remains a solid GPPplay in Week 6 DFS.

Week 6 DFSTight End NFL — Value and Punt Plays

Jordan Akins, HOU at KC

FD ($4,600) DK ($3,200)

I’m not too keenon punting TE this week for many reasons, but Akins is near the minimum salary onFD and should garner lower ownership this week after Daniel Fells had hismonster game against the Falcons. The Chiefs-Texans is one of our prospective shootouts– if not the shootout – this week, so plug him into a smattering of your GPPsif you’re willing to assume some risk and hope for another big output like hisWeek 3 breakout (3-73-2).

Noah Fant, DEN vs. TEN

FD($4,500) DK ($2,900)

Fant is a Top 15 TE play this week but lacks the flash we’d liketo see from an athletic tight end of his pedigree. He makes my puntrecommendations because of a favorable matchup with the Titans (26th in the NFLvs. TEs) and because he’s both cheap and under-the-radar.

Mike Gesicki, MIA vs. WAS

FD ($4,600) DK ($2,700)

Gesicki may be my favorite GPP dart this week, because hisownership will be low and the Dolphins are emerging from a bye week where theyprobably surmised they could utilize him in the offense and still tank vs. Washington– another dysfunctional team without a viable offensive rudder. Josh Rosen willbe feeding both DeVante Parker and Preston Williams, but I could see 6-7 targets,a handful of catches and a TD from the sophomore TE this week.

Additional GPP options:

Delanie Walker, TEN at DEN(FD $5,200, DK $3,700)

Jared Cook, NO at JAC (FD$5,600, DK $3,400)

Gerald Everett, LAR vs. SF(FD $6,000, DK $3,600)

Blake Jarwin, DAL vs. NYJ (FD $4,600, DK $3,300)

Week 6 DFS DST NFL —Cash Game Plays

Seattle Seahawks (SEA @CLE)

FD ($4,100) DK ($3,400)

I don’t care that they’re on the road this week, the Seahawks aremy top cash game play for Week 6 because the Browns are an absolute disaster. ThisSeattle defense has actually been a little better on the road this season, itsbest performance as a unit being the Week 4 win at Arizona. They’re viable inall DFS formats this week and I’ll be locking them in just about everywhere.

Baltimore Ravens (BAL vs. CIN)

FD ($5,000) DK ($4,100)

The Ravens are going to be popular this week and I’d be remiss ifI didn’t include them as a viable cash game play, but I much prefer the Seahawksthis week and I won’t be rolling out any other unit in cash. The Bengals are aperfect “get-right” spot for any DST, but my concern is that some of the injuriesthe Ravens have suffered (safety Tony Jefferson just hit the IR) will keep themfrom reaching their normal upside.

Week 6 DFS DST NFL — GPPPlays

Washington Redskins (WAS atMIA)

FD ($4,200) DK ($3,200)

ThisWashington team may have its problems offensively, but there are myriad playmakerson this defensive unit and the Dolphins are a good candidate for turnovers and sacks.They’re probably my favorite GPP play if I choose to pivot off the Seahawks.

Dallas Cowboys (DAL at NYJ)

FD ($5,000) DK ($4,300)

The Cowboys are a good GPP play this week facing Sam “The Spleen” Darnoldand the Jets, who have struggled offensively and could have trouble stoppingthe Cowboys improving pass rush. They’re not cheap, but they won’t be lockedinto that many lineups given the return of Darnold and price point.

Tennessee Titans (TEN atDEN)

FD ($4,700) DK ($2,900)

The Titans have solid DST but travel to Denver this week. They’redefinitely an option as a low-owned play and they average 10.0 FPPG on DK thisseason, so work them into a few GPPs if you’re multi-entering.

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Week 6 DFS DST NFL — PuntPlays

Jacksonville Jaguars (JACvs. NO)

FD ($4,100) DK ($2,200)

This is not a play for the faint of heart, but I’m considering theJaguars DST – which is a much better unit at home than on the road. The Jagsscored 15 FP in Week 3 during their last home game against the Titans and they’llhave almost no ownership facing a dynamic Saints offense.

Miami Dolphins (MIA vs. WAS)

FD ($3,700) DK ($2,700)

The Dolphins shouldn’t everbe played in cash games, but they do have some good young defensive players andthey’ll know what’s coming this week, as interim HC Bill Callahan has alreadycommitted to hammering away with Adrian Peterson in Week 6 and this unit hashad two full weeks to prepare. It’s not an interesting game plan and playing theDolphins won’t exactly be fun – but if you’re feeling frisky and supercontrarian, this could be your angle.

5 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL NHL PGA

DFS Diamonds for 10/9: DFS Pro J.P. on NFL, NHL and PGA

Coby Williams 5 years ago

written by Coby Williams

WIN DAILY is excited and proud to welcome DFS Pro Javier Prellezo to the team! Check out his incredible career DFS accomplishments in his bio at the bottom of the page.

Win Daily DFS Grinders: Happy Wednesday to you!!

To those of you that don’t recognize me, I go by JPrellezo on FanDuel and DraftKings, but you can call me Javi. My goal is to assist you in becoming more successful and profitable with some DFS Diamonds. I’ll go through what works for me and I hope I can guide you to the Promised Land!

For those of you that were in our Premium Gold Slack Chat this past week, I was trying to guide you all to push for Christian McCaffrey. They are simply forcing him the ball and rolling the offense towards CMC. Until they decide to lighten the workload, you need to keep pushing CMC as a CORE PLAY. Unfortunately, he’s not on the main slate for this week so it’s time to be sad.

MostDFS sites, pros, players, etc. don’t focus on the next week until later on inthe week, but I want to provide an early look into Week 6. I want to focus onthe top 3-5 games that I’m currently leaning towards for Week 6. I will take adeeper dive into the games later in the week.

DFS Cash Game Plays and Top Plays

Bengals vs. Ravens

This isn’t a game to target on both sides, but more on the Ravens side. The Bengals defense is bad and for those of you that took advantage of the cheap price on the Bengals DST were thoroughly disappointed. Given two straight weeks of disappointment for Lamar Jackson, I’d expect a BIG bounce-back game for Jackson and the Ravens offense. Keep your eye on Marquise Brown and his ankle throughout the week.

DFS Core Plays

FanDuel
- Lamar Jackson, QB, BAL – $8,200
- Marquise Brown , WR, BAL – $5,800
- Mark Andrews , TE, BAL – $6,300
DraftKings
- Lamar Jackson, QB , BAL – $6,900
- Mark Andrews, TE, BAL – $4,800

ValuePlays

FanDuel
- Joe Mixon, RB, CIN – $6,400
DraftKings
- Auden Tate, WR, CIN – $4,500

Texans vs. Chiefs

To be honest, this might be the game stack of the week. Texans vs. Falcons did NOT disappoint and I don’t think this game will either. Given two mediocre defenses and two killer offenses, I’ll be heavily invested in this game and I’d expect it to be the chalk. Keep your eye on Patrick Mahomes, who was hobbling all game on that ankle.

CorePlays

FanDuel
- DeAndre Hopkins, WR, HOU- $8,400
- Will Fuller, WR, HOU – $6,600
- Travis Kelce, TE, KC – $7,500
DraftKings
- DeAndre Hopkins, WR, HOU – $7,400
- Travis Kelce, TE, KC – $7,000
- Will Fuller, WR, HOU – $6,000
- Deshaun Watson, QB, HOU – $6,700

ValuePlays

FanDuel
- Carlos Hyde, RB, HOU – $6,000
DraftKings
- Deshaun Watson, QB, HOU – $6,700
- Carlos Hyde , RB, HOU – $4,400

Falcons vs. Cardinals

Many may shy away from this game because of how bad both teams are, but I wouldn’t say their offenses are as bad as their defenses. Austin Hooper will be the chalk given the Cardinals defense versus TEs, but hopefully, ownership will shy away from Hooper a little given that they shut down Tyler Eifert.

CorePlays

FanDuel
- Calvin Ridley, WR, ATL – $5,500
- Julio Jones, WR, ATL – $8,500
DraftKings
- Austin Hooper, TE, ATL – $5,000
- Julio Jones, WR, ATL – $8,000
- Matt Ryan, QB, ATL – $6,400

ValuePlays

FanDuel
- Larry Fitzgerald, WR, ARI – $5,600
- Christian Kirk, WR, ARI – $5,600
- Calvin Ridley, WR, ATL – $5,500
DraftKings
- Calvin Ridley, WR, ATL – $5,700
- Christian Kirk, WR, ARI – $5,200 (if active)
- Devonta Freeman, RB, ATL – $5,700

GPP Game(s) of theWeek:

Redskins vs. Dolphins

Battle of the defeated! Who will get their first win or will they tie? Honestly, both defenses are bad, both offenses are bad. I suspect that many will NOT be on this game because of how bad they are, but this could be GPP gold. I side more with the Redskins side for offense, but with the Dolphins coming off a bye week. You just never know.

ValuePlays

FanDuel
- Adrian Peterson, RB, WAS – $5,300
- Preston Williams, WR, MIA – $5,600
DraftKings
- Adrian Peterson, RB, WAS – $4,500
- Preston Williams, WR, MIA – $4,100

Eagles vs. Vikings

Kirk Cousins is alive! I feel like most players will shy away from this game because of what the Eagles just did, but I expect the Vikings to feast on this terrible defense. The Vikings are motivated and Dalvin Cook had an off week. I expect Dalvin Cook to be a CORE PLAY!

CorePlays

FanDuel
- Stefon Diggs, WR, MIN – $5,800
- Zach Ertz, TE, PHI – $6,600
- Dalvin Cook, RB, MIN – $8,200
DraftKings
- Dalvin Cook, RB, MIN – $8,400

ValuePlays

FanDuel
- Stefon Diggs, WR, MIN – $5,800
DraftKings
- Stefon Diggs, WR, MIN – $5,900
- Jordan Howard, RB, PHI – $4,900
- Zach Ertz , TE, PHI – $5,400

This is NOT a homer pick, but if Darnold is out this week once again, I’d say load up with the Dallas DST and move on from anyone else. Luke Falk is terrible and bad defenses (like the Eagles) have been feasting. The word is that Sam Darnold will be active, but be on the lookout for this news.

I’ll be back Friday with a deeper dive into my favorite NFL games for Week 6.

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NHL DFS (10/9)

Three game slates are NOT my favorite, but I do like to max enter on low-cost entries to see if we can hit big. My strategy is to put in 10-20 lineups for each team. Ideally, you can do 10 PP1 for each team and 10 PP2 for each team. It isn’t the best strategy, but it worked more times than once. I’d also recommend doing different combos of game stacks and hope for a 6-5 shootout in one of the games. With these PP lines, I’d focus on a game stack or focus on a particular stack that you’re in love with to mix and match,

Kings vs. Canucks

Kings – The Kings were bad last year and will continue to be bad. Losing 6-5 to Edmonton in their first game shows us a promising offense. As expected, their defense is bad and the Canucks could be a sneaky stack even though they are supposed to be any good this year. Core plays for the Kings include Anze Kopitar, Tyler Toffoli, and Ilya Kovalchuk.

Canucks – A young squad with lots to learn. This game might the one we want to avoid given the inconsistencies of both teams. I don’t know what to expect, but there are some solid core players here. Core plays for the Canucks include Elias Pettersson, J.T. Miller, and Alexander Edler.

Key Takeaway – Being on the second night of a back-to-back, I’d load up on the PP1 and PP2 of the Canucks. Nothing is sneaky on a three game slate, but the Canucks are a solid play against the worst team in the NHL. I’d fade the Kings.

Devils vs. Flyers

Devils – The defense has been suspect through two games and offense seems middle of the pack. I’d fade them for now, but the offense does look promising coming off what they did last year. Core plays from New Jersey include P.K. Subban, Taylor Hall, Wayne Simmonds, Travis Zajac, and Kyle Palmieri.

Flyers – One game, one win. They allowed three goals on the path to a 4-3 win against the lowly Blackhawks. This game has the potential for high scoring given the rivalry and the poor defenses on both sides. I’d target more the Flyers side vs. the Devils side. Core plays from Philadelphia include Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek, James van Riemsdyk, and Shea Gostisbehere.

Key DFS Takeaway – This game has the potential to be high scoring so a game stack isn’t out of the question, but I’d prefer the Sabres vs. Canadians in that regard.

Canadiens vs. Sabres

Canadiens – Through two games, they’ve allowed three goals and five goals while losing both games in Shootouts. Defense looks to be a problem for the Canadiens, but the offense does NOT. I’d stack the top two PP lines with a focus on the PP1. Core plays from Montreal include Phillip Danault, Shea Weber, and Brendan Gallagher.

Sabres – They have beat two solid teams thus far with only three goals allowed thus far in the first two games. The offense put up seven recently against a solid Devils team, so we can wait and see to see how it goes, but I would just focus on the Canadiens side as of now. Core plays from Buffalo include Jack Eichel , Jeff Skinner, Victor Olofsson, and Sam Reinhart. These guys will be on the PP1 unit and have good value for your stacks.

Key DFS Takeaway – My primary game stack play would be this one. Both defenses are pretty suspect and both offenses seem to be strong this year. If I had to pick a side for this game, I’d choose Buffalo.

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PGADFS (10/9) – Houston Open

CorePlays

Doc Redman (FD : $8,400 ; DK : $7,200) – Best value for this tournament. He can find his way into contention given he is third in greens in regulation and fifth in strokes gained off the tee. Best value on the slate and will most likely be the chalk.

Harris English (FD : $9,900 ; DK : $8,900) – Weak field and this is your most expensive play on both sites, but this golfer was once elite. He’s an above-average with his putter and his short game is one of the best in the game. Although he has a weak approach game, he can be trusted given the weak field of this tournament.

My Consensus Value Rankings for this Tournament:

Harris English
Doc Redman
Lanto Griffin
Henrik Stenson
Brian Harman
Scottie Scheffler
Jhonattan Vegas
Zack Sucher

Please contact me with any questions on Twitter @Javi_Prellezo or on our Win Daily Slack channel!

5 years ago 0 comment

NFL

The NFL DFS Week 3 GPP Picks Of Destiny

5 years ago

written by

Week 3 in the NFL is all about finding the best opportunities for guaranteed production with high upside. Follow my stud and value GPP plays and lock in the NFL DFS Picks of Destiny.

David Jones won 100K on FanDuel!Read about it here!

Check back for updates closer to lineup lock on Sunday.

Quarterbacks:

Dak Prescott ($8,400 FD; $6,500 DK)

Dak is my top QB this week. Here is a little trick I used a lot last year. When the Cowboys are playing a bad defense just lock in Dak, Cooper and Zeke and boom, you have their entire offense (especially since Michael Gallup is out). The Cowboys are playing the Dolphins at home and whoooof, Miami is bad. Like, the worst team of a generation bad. The Cowboys are going to destroy them just like the Ravens and the Patriots already have. The Boys are currently 21 point favorites which just doesn’t happen in the NFL. There is NO WAY that Dak fails this week. Lock him in and tweet me when you cash with your lineups.

Stud Quarterback: Lamar Jackson ($8,500 FD; $7,000 DK)

Lamar Jackson’s price went down $200 this week on FanDuel for some reason. He is getting his third bad defense in the row in the Kansas City Chiefs. In the first two weeks Jackson has thrown seven touchdowns and ran for 126 yards (120 of them in game two). The Chiefs did not give up much to the Raiders last week, but besides the Dolphins, they probably have the worst offense in the NFL. In Week One the Chiefs got scorched by Gardner Minshew for 275 and two touchdowns in three quarters. Jackson now has a slew of wide receivers to targets and Ingram to help balance the offense on the ground. Jackson has over 30 fantasy points in both games this year, and there is no reason he can’t reach that again this week. Whether the Ravens are in the lead, or playing from behind, Jackson will get his through the air and/or on the ground.

Mid Quarterback: Josh Allen ($7,500 FD; $5,900 DK)

Is everyone finally on my fantasy darling Buffalo Bills QB this year? He gets it done through the air and on the ground and that is what you have to have in a NFL DFS Quarterback. This week is the Bills home opener and this kid is going to show off. Allen’s game logs are almost identical from Week One and Week Two. He has thrown for 250 yards and one touchdown in each game. He has also ran for about 30 yards and a rushing touchdown in each game. The Bills play the Bengals, and their defense is nothing to fear. He is my third favorite NFL DFS QB this week.

Mid Quarterback Pivot: Tom Brady

Notes: I am not on Mahomes as much as Dak and Lamar this week. I will get a few shares, but way more of Dak and Lamar

Quarterback Punts: None: You don’t need to punt this week.

Running Backs

Stud RB: Ezekiel Elliott ($8,800 FD; $8,900 DK)

Zeke is going vs. the Miami Dolphins. They gave up 59 points to the Ravens in week one and 43 to the Patriots in Week Two. They have given up two rushing touchdowns in both games. Zeke will get in the end zone and is the clear spend up player in NFL DFS at the RB position this week.

Stud Pivot: Saquon Barkley

Mid RB: Austin Ekeler ($7,600 FD; $7,200 DK)

Ok, he proved it to me. He is a threat on the ground and in the passing game. Are we all getting a good feel for how I play NFL DFS? I like players that can do multiple things. Houston has only given up one rushing touchdown this year, but they have given up three through the air, and Ekeler can catch. This makes him an even better on DraftKings because of the one point PPR structure. Ekeler has over 100 all-purpose yards in both games and four touchdowns. He should be a big part of the Chargers offense again this week.

Mid Pivot: Marlon Mack

Value Running Back: I will update closer to lock, waiting on some news.

Wide Receiver

Stud WR: Amari Cooper ($7,700 FD, $7,500 DK)

Just play Amari Cooper. Michael Gallup is hurt and they are playing the Dolphins as mentioned above. Cooper has gotten a touchdown in each game this year and he continues the streak this week. No doubt about it. I will be locking in the Cowboys core in my main NFL DFS lineup.

Stud Pivots: Antonio Brown, Keenan Allen

Mid WR: Kenny Golladay ($7,000 FD; $6,600 DK)

He got 10 targets in Week One and nine targets in Week Two. He is Matt Stafford’s number one receiver and he is priced very reasonably at 7K. The Lions play the Eagles this week, who are getting roasted by receivers so far this year. It will be in Philadelphia, and I expect a bounce-back from the Eagles, who just got embarrassed by Julio Jones last week during a nationally televised game on Sunday night. If the Eagles are winning, that is very good for Golladay because Stafford will have to air it out more.

Mid WR Pivots: Adam Thielen, Sammy Watkins

Value WR: Marquise Brown ($6,100 FD; $5,900 DK)

Hollywood Brown is the NFL DFS breakout receiver this season. I wasn’t convinced after he exploded in Week One, but after seeing him get targeted 13 times in Week Two I am hopping on board while he is still cheap. Lamar Jackson is my second favorite QB this week and Hollywood is his favorite receiver. He is fast, like his cousin Antonio, and is ready to become a star. He had 28.7 FanDuel points vs the Dolphins and 12.6 FanDuel points vs the Cardinals in week two (without a touchdown).

WR Value Pivots: Tyler Boyd, DK Metcalf, Will Fuller

Tight End

Stud TE: Mark Andrews ($6,800 FD, $4,600 DK)

He has over 100 yards and a touchdown in each game. He is coming on STRONG this season and gets the poor Kansas City defense. This should be a high scoring game and the Ravens are not going to quit targeting their surprising stud in this one. You can expect close to 10 targets and that’s enough opportunity for any tight end.

Stud TE Pivot: Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz

Value TE: Greg Olsen ($6,100, $3,700 DK)

The Cardinals are getting torched by tight ends. In Week One they gave up 131 yards and a touchdown to the Lions’ T.J. Hockenson in his first NFL game. In Week Two they gave up 121 and a touchdown to Mark Andrews. Are we noticing a pattern here? I am fine with Cam Newton possibly not starting (update closer to Sunday) because his backup will likely check it down more to Olsen (and McCaffrey). Olsen got 110 yards last week vs. the Bucs and he was a little beat up. I am going to stick with what’s working at tight end, and I expect low ownership.

TE Pivot: O.J. Howard (last shot)

Defense

Cowboys
Patriots
Vikings

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5 years ago 0 comment

NFL

The NFL DFS Week 2 GPP Picks Of Destiny

Gerald Colvin 5 years ago

written by Gerald Colvin

Week 2 in the NFL is all about finding the best opportunities for guaranteed production with high upside. Follow my stud and value GPP plays and lock in the NFL DFS Picks of Destiny.

David Jones won 100K on FanDuel!Read about it here!

Check back for updates closer to lineup lock on Sunday.

Quarterbacks:

Stud Quarterback: Lamar Jackson ($8,700 FD; $6,700 DK)

Lamar Jackson played almost perfectly in Week 1 vs the Miami Dolphins. I know that Miami defense looked particularly bad, but Jackson also looked fantastic throwing for 324 yards and five touchdowns. Can you imagine if he would have run for more than six yards?! Jackson faces the Arizona Cardinals this week, who just gave up 385 yards and three touchdowns to Matt Stafford at home. Jackson is going to be chalky, but like I said with Dalvin Cook last week, that doesn’t mean he is a bad play. He will be popular for a reason. He is in another great NFL DFS spot.

Patrick Mahomes: ($9,000 FD; $7,500 DK)

It feels like it is going to be another week where MVP Patrick Mahomes is going to be in a great matchup and low owned. People will fade him because there is a questionable tag by his name and because Tyreek Hill is out. Mahomes did just fine on his ankle last week and Hill basically missed the entire game. This was also vs an overhyped, yet good defense in Jacksonville. Mahomes will look to Kelce, Watkins and his pass catching backs a lot this week. The MVP will hit Kelce for at least one touchdown, and makes right for missing him in the end zone last week.

Mid Quarterback: Tom Brady ($7,800 FD; $6,400 DK)

The Patriots are going to win this game and Vegas thinks it’s going to be by a lot (-19). Tom Brady should tear them up the first three quarters before this game gets out of hand and he either gets pulled, or hands it off the entire fourth quarter. I like the NFL DFS price on Brady, and honestly don’t love a lot of other quarterbacks. I will have a Brady team.

Quarterback Punts: Josh Allen, Andy Dalton

Running Backs

Stud RB: Saquon Barkley ($9,200 FD; $9,200 DK)

It feels like a Saquon week and it has not been hard to fit him in my lineups. The Giants open at home vs the the Buffalo Bills and should absolutely feed Barkley. He looks elite again this year and gets a much easier matchup than the Cowboys were last week. He only got 11 carries, but a lot of that was game script. The Giants fell behind early and threw the ball more than they would have liked. Barkley did get six of those targets, though. Look for the Giants to control the tempo of this game more with getting Barkley going early and often. Lev Bell got his vs the Bills last week, Barkley will too.

Stud Pivot: Ezekiel Elliot

Mid RB: Mark Ingram ($7,500 FD; $6,000 DK)

Ingy impressed his first week as the new Baltimore Ravens featured back. He got 14 carries, 107 yards and two touchdowns before the Ravens pulled their starters. The Cardinals defense did fine against Kerryon Johnson last week, holding him to 49 yards, but I am not that high on Johnson to begin with. Ingram is a vet and never takes a play off. The Ravens trust him to move the chains and give him looks in he red zone. The Ravens defense will also be popular and it is a good idea to pair running backs with defenses. The more the ball turns over, the better the chances that the Ravens are winning, and therefore looking to the run game more.

Mid Pivot: Josh Jacobs

Wide Receiver

Stud WR: Sammy Watkins ($7,400 FD; $7,200 DK)

He is going to be popular, but man, has he earned it. If you want to fade him vs the Oakland Raiders based on ownership, I get it, but he is in another ideal spot this Sunday. He looked as good as ever in week one catching three touchdowns for 198 yards. There is no Tyreek Hill for a few weeks so Watkins and Kelce are both going to be putting up monster numbers. The Broncos were beating the Oakland Raiders by giving their receivers the opportunities to come up with big plays, whether that was getting them in a little space or throwing the deep ball. Both of these Watkins excels at and I have to get a few NFL DFS shares of him on Sunday.

Stud Pivots: Adam Thielen

Mid WR: Tyler Boyd ($6,300 FD; $6,500 DK)

I will be highly invested in Tyler Boyd this week. The San Fransisco 49ers head to Cincinnati this Sunday and to try and spoil the Bengals’ first home game. Boyd has shown us in the past what he can do as a number one receiver vs a poor defense. Once A.J. Green went down last year, Boyd had three games with over 100 yards and was targeted the most on the Bengals. Targeting the San Fran D should also be profitable in NFL DFS this year. They may have held the Tampa to under 200 yards through the air last week, however I put that more on Winston’s struggles. Boyd had 11 targets and eight receptions for 60 yards in Seattle last week. This week he will do much, much more.

WR Midrange Pivots: Will Fuller, Cooper Kupp, DK Metcalf

Value WR: Tyrell Williams ($5,900 FD; $4,400 DK)

Oakland should have to throw it a lot here vs the visiting Chiefs. Williams was targeted seven times in their win against the Broncos and emerged as the clear top option for the Raiders. The Chiefs are also struggling in the secondary, much like last year. The Jaguars backup QB was able to come in for the injured Nick Foles last week, and put up 275 yards with two touchdowns. Tyrell Williams at $5,900 on FanDuel feels underpriced for his role in the offense. When the Raiders get in the redzone he should be the first one targeted. He pulls his weight here and exceeds value.

WR Punt: Damion Willis

Tight End

Stud TE: Travis Kelce ($8,000 FD; $7,300 DK)

Lock. No Tyreek Hill gives the best tight end in the league a tremendous boost. He is getting in the end zone this week, at least once. Patrick Mahomes told reporters after last weeks win that he “owed Kelce lunch” for missing him in the end zone last week. He makes up for it this week vs the Oakland Raiders. Kelce may be the highest priced NFL DFS tight end this week, but he may also be the highest scoring.

Stud TE Pivot: Evan Engram

Value TE: T.J. Hockenson ($6,000 FD; $3,000 DK)

He got nine targets for 131 yards and a touchdown in his first NFL game. It is safe to say Stafford trusts him already. I don’t expect him to exceed what he did in Week 1 but at $6,000 on FanDuel he is a safe NFL DFS play with upside.

TE Pivot: Darren Waller

Defense

Ravens
Titans
Giants (punt)

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5 years ago 0 comment

NFL

Week 1 NFL DFS TE and DST Picks

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

It’s finally Week 1 of the NFL and I’m looking at what can sometimes be the last two pieces you plug into your NFL DFS lineups – tight ends (TEs) and defenses (DSTs). There’s plenty to discuss, so let’s dive right in!

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Week 1 Tight End NFL DFS Cash Game Plays

ZachErtz, PHI vs. WAS

FD($7,100) DK ($6,100)

Ertz caught the second-most passes of anyplayer last year (116) and saw 156 targets. He’s in a great Week 1matchup and is a consensus top 3 TE in every possible format. There may beample reasons to enumerate the many attributes of some of the remaining TEs in thisrundown, but I shouldn’t cloud your mind with too many competing thoughts in mycash game recommendations. Ertz is top dog this week in cash.

EvanEngram, NYG at DAL

FD($6,400) DK ($4,800)

Engram is the best receiver available on the Giants and they are going to inundate him with targets against the Cowboys are just middle-of-the-road when it comes to defending opposing TEs. The third-year TE had a TD in each of his games vs. Dallas in 2018 and offers a little more safety than Travis Kelce and O.J. Howard, with just a tad less upside.

Week 1 Tight End NFL DFS GPP Plays

TravisKelce, KC at JAX

FD(7,800) DK ($7,100)

The tough matchup willkeep a chunk of the field away and that’s what we want for a guy with this muchupside – especially in a game with a 51.5 total. I’ll tolerate some risk at myTE spot because there’s a shot to play both – and I’ll have a lot of exposureto a Kelce-Ertz combo on both sites, since they could both score three TDs andmake incredible value just under the price point of stud RBs.

GeorgeKittle, SF at TB

FD($7,300) DK ($6,600)

Traditional ownership inGPPs dictates that the better value with the lower risk gets taken, so Kittlemakes perfect sense as a GPP pivot from Ertz, who’s cheaper on both sites.Kittle is a one-man offensive powerhouse who can take over a game with 200 yardsand score 2-3 TDs, so he’s a fine GPP play in Week 1 facing the relatively weakBucs defensive unit.

Hunter Henry, LAC vs. IND

FD ($6,100) DK (3,900)

There’s just a ton of upside to Henry’s 2019 season, and it all starts in Week 1 facing the Colts. He’s blessed with a capable, adventurous QB in Philip Rivers (who has a history of torrid love affairs with his TEs), caught eight TDs as a rookie in 2016 (the fourth-highest mark for a rookie tight end in NFL history) spent a year in an expanded role while out-targeting Antonio Gates, and then missed the entire 2018 regular season with a torn ACL. Low projected ownership and a prime matchup make him a solid GPP play this week.

Week 1 Tight End NFL DFS Punt Plays

MarkAndrews, BAL at MIA

FD($5,400) DK ($3,000)

Andrews emerged as a viable TE option in 2018 and promises to once again be a useful safety valve for Lamar Jackson. There’s not an overwhelming sense of limitless upside with Andrews from a season-long perspective (and I think most folks who drafted him would be happy with Top 10 numbers), but the Dolphins LBs are an inexperienced unit at risk of giving up huge numbers to opposing TEs. Andrews is a cost-effective way to fit in a bunch of solid RBs and WRs, though you’ll be assuming a considerable amount of risk not looking to the obvious top TEs.

DelanieWalker, TEN at CLE

FD($5,400) DK ($3,500)

Walker makes for an interesting GPP play at just $5,400 on FD, and he qualifies as a punt for his low salary on DK. Walker probably has a little more upside than Andrews but the three-time Pro Bowler makes plenty of sense as a lower-risk option heading into a Week 1 contest that might be a little more lopsided than expected and have the Titans playing from behind. Walker played just one game in 2018 (dislocated ankle) and will look to rebound with a big Week 1, and Jonnu Smith isn’t much of a threat to his targets.

Additional GPP/Punt options:

Will Dissly, SEA vs CIN (FD $4,000, DK $2,900)

Tyler Eifert, CIN at SEA (DK $3,100)

Darren Waller, OAK vs. DEN (FD $4,800, DK $3,000)

Week 1 NFL DFS DST Cash Game Plays

BaltimoreRavens (BAL at MIA)

FD($5,400) DK ($3,800)

The Ravens lost some defensive starters in LB C.J. Mosley and DL Willie Henry, and there’s been some question as to the effectiveness of their pass rush, but they remain a perennial powerhouse and there’s no easier team to pick on in cash games than the Dolphins. Since Miami is a team in turmoil, Baltimore is the consensus top defense in the weekly rankings and there’s plenty of value to be found throughout the rest of the roster, so it’s no problem looking at the Ravens this week, even as the highest-priced DST on both sites.

PhiladelphiaEagles (PHI vs. WAS)

FD($4,600) DK ($3,600)

There’s plenty of appeal to both the Ravens and this Eagles unit in GPPs, since there’s plenty of opportunity to differentiate our lineups elsewhere. But the goal of cash games is to limit risk and maximize cost – and there’s just not a lot of difference cost-wise between the top and bottom defenses. Philly is still running the Jim Schwartz system of constant pressure and this group is a fine blend of experience and youth. They are deep, they are talented, and they are home in Week 1 to face the paltry Redskins. Don’t overthink it.

Week1 DST GPP Plays

LosAngeles Rams (LAR at CAR)

FD($4,400) DK ($3,200)

There’s a considerable drop after the top couple ranked DSTs this week, so they’ll be my only cash game recommendations, but the Rams are a formidable unit facing a much more potent offense. Whether Carolina’s Cam Newton is 100 percent is the main factor in the Rams making most of my GPP builds, and if I’ll look to some of the following options as a pivot. With that said, the Rams are a consensus Top 12 defense this week and the team’s offensive prowess sometimes forces opponents into silly mistakes (30 takeaways last season). This is where you can capitalize in GPPs. They offer relatively low ownership because of the higher price, but they’re still a few bucks cheaper than the elite DSTs, so they make sense as last-piece fit.

SeattleSeahawks (SEA vs. CIN)

FD($4,500) DK ($3,100)

Plenty of question marks surround the newer pieces (ZiggyAnsah and Jadeveon Clowney) in the Seahawks front seven and All-Pro safety EarlThomas is out the door – so DFS players could look at this unit with sometrepidation and steer clear in Week 1. But the Bengals are a team without itsstar WR for the first few games and I know that Scott Engel would beannoyed if I didn’t acknowledge his squad’s upside in this cushy spot and justhow good these linebackers and lineman can be in 2019.

ClevelandBrowns (CLE vs. TEN)

FD($4,200) DK ($3,100)

The Browns are a couple years removed from being a laughingstock, and this play might not be all that contrarian with the DST’s cost down. But Cleveland had 31 takeaways last season (17 INTs and 14 FRs) and should be an improved unit in 2019. The Titans aren’t too much of a threat to score 25+ points and a Nick Chubb/Browns DST game script could be a decent starting point in GPP builds.

NewYork Jets (NYJ vs. BUF)

FD($4,200) DK ($3,100)

The Bills and Jets defenses both feel a lot like the sameamount of risk and upside, so this should be a fun Week 1 contest to watch. It’llbe even more fun if you click the Jets into your DFS lineups and they force abunch of turnovers from Josh Allen and the dubious Bills offense. The Jets unitis a risk, because they’re susceptible to the big play, but the flip side is thepositive variance they offer. I’ve seen them as high as second on some Week 1 rankingsand as low as 30^th – the definition of a GPP option.

Week1 DST Punt Plays

LosAngeles Chargers (LAC vs. IND)

FD($4,000) DK ($3,000)

The Chargers are cheap, they get to the opposing QB, andthey have plenty of upside facing a Colts team without Andrew Luck. I’mcomfortable going here in Week 1 for this affordable cost.

SanFrancisco 49ers (SF at TB)

FD($3,700) DK ($2,200)

The 49ers are loaded with talented defensive lineman but have a weak LB corps, and they don’t stand out as particularly safe facing the Bucs in Tampa Bay. But if you’ve got to make it work with just a few bucks left in salary cap, they make plenty of sense. The biggest area of concern for the 49ers this season is +/ in turnovers, where they ranked last in the league at -25 in 2018. The addition of Nick Bosa, however, promises to change some of that and Week 1 is a fine place to take advantage of the cost savings this improving unit offers.

TampaBay Buccaneers (TB vs. SF)

FD($3,500) DK ($2,200)

The Bucs were second-to-last in turnover differential last season and offer a similar risk-reward scenario in Week 1 facing the 49ers. I could see easily see pick-sixes for both teams and a 20-17 final score, which would be an acceptable outcome given the variance at DST and our aim at providing a modicum of upside without overwhelming risk.

Zach Ertz featured image via Jason Peters.

5 years ago 0 comment

NFL

NFL Preseason Week 3 DFS Thursday Game Previews

adam.sardinha1@gmail.com 5 years ago

written by adam.sardinha1@gmail.com

Cannot get enough of NFL Preseason DFS? We have six games coming up on Thursday, making it the perfect night for locking in some lineups for DFS preseason on DraftKings and FanDuel. For this slate, I am going to go through each game for Thursday night. The Thursday night games include NYG @ CIN, BAL @ PHI, WAS @ ATL, CAR @ NE, GB @ OAK, and JAX @ MIA.

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weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more! Get started today! And don’t forget to check out the cheat sheet!

NYG @ CIN

Giants

Giants’ coach Pat Shurmur has been vocal on not playing his starters in the preseason. Eli Manning has played just two series in two games thus far. It looks to be the Daniel Jones show again in Week 3. All signs indicate Jones should see a ton of playing time after an overall impressive performance throughout the preseason. Do not expect Jones to be necessarily chucking the ball up and down the field, but rather the Giants putting him in a position to succeed. Using short routes to the backs and tight ends. T.J. Jones has led the receiver group in targets (10), touchdowns (2), and ranks second in the NFL through the preseason in yards/route run (3.47) on a minimum of 10 targets. Jon Hilliman is interesting at running back after receiving 16 rushing attempts in Week 2, which was second-most in the NFL last week.

Bengals

The Bengals defense has allowed 469 passing yards over the past two weeks with a 105.4 passer rating. Expect to see a ton of running back work from Rodney Anderson. Trayveon Williams has been lost to injury, and because of that Anderson expects to finally be unleashed against the Giants. The Giants have allowed 103 rushing yards over the past two weeks. Receiver John Ross is unlikely to play, while Ryan Finley is strongly making his case to be Andy Dalton’s backup. His three passing touchdowns are tied for the most in the preseason, and in passing yards, he ranks eighth. Damion Willis leads the team in receiving yards (63) and routes run (51) over the preseason.

https://twitter.com/Local12Skinny/status/1164366076630773761

BAL @ PHI

Ravens

Apparently, the Ravens’ offense has been tearing up the Eagles’ defense during the joint practices.

https://twitter.com/jamisonhensley/status/1163912432819015680

Usually, you want to be hesitant to play starters in the preseason game, but using Ravens is the sharp play because the Ravens value winning even in the preseason. They have won 15 straight preseason games. Lamar Jackson and Miles Boykin create a great stack in DFS NFL Preseason. Boykin has 12 targets in the preseason which is twice as much as any other receiver on the Ravens. This game could show us the most we see of the new-look Ravens offense prior to the regular season.

Eagles

There will no be Carson Wentz on Thursday night. With so many injuries at the tight end position, Joshua Perkins needs to be on the radar for preseason DFS. Though he only received two targets last week, he tied the most routes run (19) on the team in Week 2 of the preseason. Josh McCown has looked sharp in the few days since being added to the roster so don’t be surprised to see him get playing time in this NFL preseason game. J.J. Arcega-Whiteside has seen 10 targets throughout the preseason, so he is a receiver to continue to look to in your preseason DFS lineups.

WAS @ ATL

Redskins

Receivers Trey Quinn and Paul Richardson are both out for Thursday along with tight end Jordan Reed. Great chance that running back Derrius Guice plays on Thursday. Along with that coach Jay Gruden has ultimately stated that he is not in a rush to name a starting quarterback. Receiver Darvin Kidsy should continue to see work as he has seen more than twice as many targets (9) than any other receiver.

Falcons

Dan Quinn has ruled out the following guys: Damontae Kazee, Russell Gage, Kaleb McGary, Foye Oluokun and Kendall Sheffield. Tight end Jaeden Graham has been making some noise. Graham led the Falcons in receiving yards against the Jets with four catches for 55 yards. His eight receptions rank second-most on the team behind only receiver Christian Blake during the preseason.

https://twitter.com/DOrlandoAJC/status/1163845750327074817

https://twitter.com/jeannathomas/status/1163840715832668161

CAR @ NE

Panthers

Starters are in! Cam Newton and the entire starting lineup is set to play against New England. Head coach wants to play his starters via Panthers.com “I like it just because it’s a measuring stick. Coach (Bill) Belichick, the way his teams play and prepare, they are going to test you,” Rivera said. “It’s an opportunity to truly gauge where we are and what we need to be better at.” Areas of note that Rivera highlighted: The fourth, fifth and sixth wide receiver. “What’s the combination of guys we’re going to go into games with?” Rivera said. And the rookie running backs. “We’ve really got to see Jordan Scarlett and Elijah Holyfield a lot. We have to see what those guys are made of and if they have the ability to help us.”

https://twitter.com/DNewtonespn/status/1163856798757134339

Patriots

It has not yet been confirmed whether or not Tom Brady will play in the NFL Preseason game in Week 3. However, if history is any indicator Brady will play. For more than a decade, the quarterback has played in the preseason dress rehearsal. At wide receiver Josh Gordon, Julian Edelman, and Demaryius Thomas are unlikely to play. Question marks also surround N’Keal Harry, Maurice Harris, and Phillip Dorsett, who are dealing with injuries that sidelined them for last Saturday’s matchup with the Tennessee Titans. So again firing up preseason standout Jakobi Meyers continues to be a strong buy along with Braxton Berrios. At the tight end, there won’t be Matt LaCosse or Stephen Anderson, so snaps will be divided among Ryan Izzo, Lance Kendricks, and Eric Saubert. Ben Watson is most likely to get the start on Thursday night with his 4-week suspension looming.

GB @ OAK

Packers

Oh, Canada! The Green Bay starters are projected to play in the first quarter according to Matt LeFleur. Still, the playing time is a question mark making them difficult to trust in this NFL Preseason matchup. The team will more than likely lean on caution in terms of starters playing long into Thursday night. Depth wide receiver Allen Lazard leads the team in targets (7) and yards per route run (4.29) on the Packers through the first two weeks. This is Aaron Rodgers on Lazard: “I think he’s had a really nice camp. He’s made a bunch of plays,” Rodgers said on Monday. “He’s always showing up on special teams, he does things the right way in practice. I think he’s put himself in a position to legitimately be playing for all 32 teams.”

Aaron Jones should also play, but I would expect a healthy dose of Dexter Williams again with Jamaal Williams just recently returning from his own hamstring injury.

https://twitter.com/Packers_Writer/status/1164245375718322176

Raiders

The preseason hasn’t been overly kind to the Packers defense as they have given up 26 points in each of their first two NFL Preseason contests. So this could potentially bode well for the Raiders, who could use a nice showing Thursday night amid the Antonio Brown saga. Throughout the preseason and training camps, the two biggest names have consistently been Keelan Doss and Darren Waller. Doss has led the team in receptions and targets, while Waller made his preseason debut in last week’s preseason game. Additionally, at running back DeAndre Washington has flashed with work in the preseason as he continues to fight for a roster spot. His upside in the passing game makes him a very intriguing preseason DFS play.

https://twitter.com/RaidersBeat/status/1163831117730013185

JAX @ MIA

Jaguars

For the Jaguars Marqise Lee, Alfred Blue, Geoff Swaim, Josh Oliver, and Charles Jones will not play. Nick Foles will play, but for how long is up in the air. Tre McBride continues to be a receiver to target throughout preseason DFS. He leads the team in targets, receptions, and receiving yards in the first two weeks of the preseason. Leonard Fournette may also see limited action so the work could be loaded onto Devante Mays, who has led the team in rushing attempts through the first two weeks.

Dolphins

Ryan Fitzpatrick looks to get the start with the head coach claiming Josh Rosen is just not ready. Brian Flores has said that this does not mean that Fitzpatrick is the entrenched starter for Week 1. He is going to see more action in this game than in the first two preseason games. Flores wants to see how Fitzpatrick works with the first-team offense during the third preseason game. Should Fitzpatrick play well, that would essentially lock him in to start Week 1 against the Ravens.

Fitzpatrick will be without DeVante Parker, Albert Wilson, and Kenyan Drake. The weapons that Fitzpatrick might end up working with include Preston Williams, Patrick Laird, and Kenny Stills.

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