The NFL DFS season continues with the Thursday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the Week 2 NFL DFS contests!
DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.
My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.
If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please get in the game with a gold account and consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.
Let’s get to the game!
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
Chalk: Joe Burrow (DK $16,200, FD $14,500)
Pivot: Baker Mayfield (DK $15,300, FD $15,000)
Contrarian #1: Joe Mixon (DK $12,900, FD $13,000)
Contrarian #2: Tyler Boyd (DK $10,500, FD $10,000)
Contrarian #3: Nick Chubb (DK $11,400, FD $13,500)
This is a pretty straight-forward Showdown slate, and I’m leaning toward using Joe Burrow as my MVP based on his ability to score on the ground or via the air with both his WRs and RBs.
I think the most ownership will end up with Burrow as the top guy, though I understand the contrarian pivot to Mayfield or a guy like Joe Mixon – the player likely to have the most touches in this game.
Both defenses are pretty banged up, and while the total is just 43.5, I’m expecting a higher-scoring game. If you have to play a defense in the top spot, make it the Browns (because of their pass rush) and fill in the rest of your lineups accordingly based on that narrative.
I’d steer clear of using a kicker in the MVP slot in this game because we probably don’t need to go there.
Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together
DON’T: Use Joe Burrow as your MVP with no Bengals position players and the Browns DST.
DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.
DON’T: Use players with almost no shot of seeing the field, regardless of their salary.
Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
It’s time for our Week 17DFS recommendations for the Sunday main slate. I’m focusing on tight ends (TEs)and defenses (DSTs) that will help you win!
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FD($7,500) DK ($7,000)
With the Chiefs needing a win to secure a first-round bye, expect Kelce and the Chiefs to come out firing against the Chargers. While they are utilizing their backs a lot in this one, Kelce racked up 7-92-1 in the Week 11 meeting between the two teams and makes for a fine play in all formats.
FD($6,400) DK ($4,900)
While Zach Ertz (ribs, back) resumed practicing on Friday, Goedert still projects to be heavily involved in the Eagles offense this weekend as they try to clinch a division title and make the playoffs. Ertz is nursing some painful injuries and may not be at 100 percent even if he’s active, and it’s obvious the Eagles trust Goedert as a primary receiving option even when Ertz is logging heavy snaps. He’s a fine cash game play on DK and FD.
FD($6,000) DK ($5,800)
The price took a big jump on DraftKings, but Hooper couldbe Matt Ryan’s most popular target in Week 17 in a matchup at Tampa Bay. TheBucs rank 29th against TEs on DK and Julio Jones could be out, funneling moretargets to Hooper. With Calvin Ridley on IR and the running game a somewhat unappealingoption against the stout run defense, we could see a huge game from the bigFalcons TE.
FD($6,200) DK ($5,400)
Waller disappointed last week as the Raiders didn’t havemuch need to throw the ball in the second half as they salted away a win using heavydoses of DeAndre Washington, but this time around they could be forced intomore passing. The matchup is a tough one but Waller had as solid Week 1 againstthe Broncos (7-70-0 on eight targets) and he’ll garner low ownership at anaffordable price.
FD($6,000) DK ($4,500)
Henry had another ho-hum game in Week 16 and remains a riskin DFS, but he could be forced into more pressing duties facing the Chiefs inWeek 17. He had 6-69-0 against the division rival in Week 12 and remains one ofthe top 10 fantasy TEs with some big-game upside. He’s also very affordable onDK.
FD ($5,700) DK ($4,200)
Howard started the season off slowly but now has at leastthree catches and 46 yards in four straight games. This could be the week he getsin the end zone, and he makes for an affordable GPP Bucs passing game stackalong with Jameis Winston and either Breshad Perriman or Justin Watson.
FD($5,300) DK ($3,700)
The Giants have relied on Smith quite a bit the past few weeks, and he’s shown to have a nose for the end zone, with 6-35-2 last week in the OT win over Washington. He’s on the GPP radar for Week 17, even in a tough matchup against Philly.
TylerHigbee, LAR vs. ARI (FD $6,900, DK $5,600) – Cash or GPP
JaredCook, NO at CAR (FD $6,800, DK $5,200) – GPP only
JonnuSmith, TEN at HOU (FD $5,800, DK $4,200) – GPP punt
NoahFant, DEN vs. OAK (FD $5,600, DK $3,600) – GPP punt
FD($4,900) DK ($3,100)
The Ravens look like apretty safe play in cash games against a Steelers offense that has major QB issuesand nothing to play for. I’m locking them into cash games, especially on DK atjust $3,100.
FD ($4,800) DK ($3,200)
I’m not excited aboutplaying the Colts, but they’re a fine cash game play facing the Jaguars – whocould be without RB Leonard Fournette. They have an excellent matchup and the priceis plenty affordable on DK.
Also consider: Minnesota Vikings (DK), BuffaloBills
FD($4,700) DK ($4,300)
The Pats are expensive and there’s some risk rolling them out againsta Dolphins offense that’s looked a heck of a lot better the past few weeks. Butthis defense can score points and there’s no reason to avoid them in GPPs.
FD($5,000) DK ($4,000)
The Panthers QBs have been throwing lots ofinterceptions the past few weeks and this Saints DST takes advantage ofmistakes. I’ll downgrade them a bit if they’re missing Vonn Bell at safety, butthey’re in consideration for GPPs.
Alsoconsider: Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys
FD($4,800) DK ($3,000)
They’re overpriced on FanDuel, but they’re a punt on DraftKings at just $3K. The Lions are a mess right now and the Packers DST is filled with playmakers who capitalize on bad throws and poor blocking. They’re worth plugging in for both cash and GPP on DK.
FD($4,600) DK ($3,300)
Again, I’m not interested in FD, but the price on DK in a favorable home matchup is just too good to pass up. The Raiders have played better lately, but they do have some injury issues to navigate and the Broncos DST will look to close out the season on a high note.
It’s time for our Week 16 DFS recommendations for the Sunday main slate. I’m focusing on tight ends (TEs) and defenses (DSTs) that will help you win!
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FD($6,900) DK ($6,000)
The price continues to rise, and now he’s the mostexpensive TE on both sites. I might stay away from him in a few of my GPPs becauseof what promises to be relatively high ownership, but I’m locking him into cashgames.
FD($6,500) DK ($6,100)
We nailed Waller last week as he exploded for 10-122-0 and was the top-scoring TE despite failing to reach the end zone. This week we could see him snag a score along with his normal smattering of 6-10 targets/catches and 50-100 yards. He’s a solid play in all formats.
FD($6,000) DK ($4,400)
The price is very reasonable on both sites, and it almost lookslike a mistake on DK. Hooper has immense upside and we know that teamssometimes Julio Jones – forcing Hooper into more targets. The Jags defense is afar cry from the unit it was in 2018, and Hooper could go off in Week 16 in asneaky good spot.
FD($6,500) DK ($5,900)
Andrews seems to fly under the radar every weekin GPPs, mainly because there are so many ways for the Ravens to beat you andfolks don’t want to tie their hopes to a TE when so much of their success on thelegs of Lamar Jackson. Andrews is risky, to be sure, but he’s got 25-point upsideand saw eight targets in the Week 4 loss to Cleveland. He’s also pretty cheapon DK.
FD($6,100) DK ($4,700)
Henry is a huge risk in DFS, as he goes through serious scoringdroughts and is typically a boom-or-bust GPP play – and this week is no different.I’m willing to take the chance in Week 16 because the Raiders are among the worstat defending TEs.
FD ($5,700) DK ($4,200)
Death, taxes and playing TEs against the Cards. That’s what the Hollister play boils down to in Week 16. I don’t love the price on FD, but he does have 15-20 point upside in the matchup.
FD($5,100) DK ($3,200)
The Giants will be without Evan Engram once again, so Smithshould maintain an expanded role on offense over the Giants’ final two games.He’s without the monster upside f his fellow receivers, but he’s affordable onDK and could get you 10-15 points.
JaredCook, NO at TEN (FD $6,600, DK $5,000) – GPP only
TaysomHill, NO at TEN (FD $5,200) FD GPP only since he’s a QB on DK
DallasGoedert, PHI vs. DAL (FD $5,900, DK $4,200) – GPP only
MikeGesicki, MIA vs. CIN (FD $5,300, DK $3,600) – GPP punt
TylerEifert, CIN at MIA (FD $4,700, DK $3,200) – GPP punt
FD($4,500) DK ($4,000)
The Ravens could be thetop defense of Week 16 in all formats, but they’re especially attractive incash games against a Browns offense that’s thrown in the towel for 2019 and isprone to multiple turnovers.
FD($4,900) DK ($3,900)
Pittsburgh’s DST is a juggernaut in DFS and has just two games this season where they’ve not reached double digits. The Jets? They’re still the Jets, possibly even more so now that 2019 is basically “in the tank.”
FD($5,000) DK ($3,500)
You’re getting a discount on DK and the Broncos unit will be happy to face a less formidable opponent, as they’ve been tested the past five weeks up against the Chiefs, Texans, Chargers, Bills, and Vikings. They’re playable in cash or GPP.
FD($4,400) DK ($3,700)
The unit has its flaws, but the opponent turns theball over quite a bit. I’m liking the price on both sites and the Seahawks havethe ability to turn this game into more of a defensive slog than the Cards areused to.
FD($3,800) DK ($2,700)
The Saints are a huge bargain on DK at just$2,700 and could see higher ownership with Derrick Henry looking doubtful toplay this week. I’ll have plenty of shares in GPPs, and they may even be cashviable despite their recent struggles.
FD($3,800) DK ($2,800)
The Giants could always do some scoring, which means the Redskins can’t be used in cash games, but I like the price and what promises to be low ownership in GPPs. Jump aboard and take the risk.
It’s time for our Week 15 DFS recommendations for the Sunday main slate. I’m focusing on tight ends (TEs) and defenses (DSTs) that will help you win!
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FD($7,200) DK ($6,200)
Kittle is the number one fantasy TE this week in cash games, and he’s viable in GPPs too, given his upside. With 60-754-4 on the season and averaging six receptions and 90.3 yards per game over his last four games, it’s obvious that Jimmy G loves him — and he’s what you’re looking for as your top TE in cash games.
FD($6,200) DK ($5,500)
Waller had 6-72-0 and a fumble last week but remains DerekCarr’s top target. He’s a cash game staple every week but hasn’t broken out fora monster game in a while. The price is still very affordable.
FD($7,300) DK ($6,500)
Kelce isn’t cheap, but he brings massive upsideto the table and is essentially matchup-proof because of the many ways Patrick Mahomescan get him the ball. He’s a consensus Top 3 fantasy TE every week, and becausehe’s expensive he usually doesn’t draw too much ownership in GPPs.
FD($6,700) DK ($6,000)
The price has jumped up on both sites, mainly because ofhis big game in Week 14 and the injury to Alshon Jeffery, but we still mustconsider Ertz as a GPP play, especially facing the Redskins. He had 5-54-0 inWeek 1 against them, but I think he’ll find the end zone this time around.
FD($6,200) DK ($5,000)
We saw Jared Cook score two big TDs early last week againstthe 49ers, so I’m not counting out Hooper despite the difficult matchup on paper.With Calvin Ridley out of commission and this likely to be a negative game scriptfor the Falcons, I can see Hooper drawing 8-10 targets or more. The price hasdropped too.
FD ($5,700) DK ($3,900)
Higbeeshould be a popular target for Jared Goff this week facing the Cowboys, whohave a banged up linebacking corps and will struggle in covering the middle of thefield. We’ve seen two huge games in a row (7-107-1 and 7-116-0) and Higbee isstill a great bargain at just $3,900 on DK.
FD($5,700) DK ($3,500)
Howard gets a decent matchup against the Lions and could seeextra volume with Mike Evans (hamstring) done for the rest of the season. He doesn’thave the upside of the top TEs, but 10-15 DK points for $3,500 could work – andthe chances of him catching a TD really go up without Evans on the field.
FD ($5,300) DK ($3,100)
The pricing on FD is fair, but Thomas is still a massivebargain on DK, where he’s just $3,100.The matchup is a good one, as the Seahawkshave struggled to contain TEs this season, and we saw last week how much KyleAllen relies on Thomas without Greg Olsen.
HunterHenry, LAC vs. MIN (FD $6,400, DK $5,200) – Risky and expensive GPP play
NoahFant, DEN at KC (FD $5,700, DK $4,100) – GPP only (He’s playing)
DallasGoedert, PHI at WAS (FD $5,700, DK $4,300) – GPP only
FD($5,000) DK ($4,000)
The Patriots might havea little extra steam in their engines this week after the scandalous film crewinvestigation, and there’s no arguing this is a talented unit who can dominateagainst bad teams – the Bengals included.
FD($4,900) DK ($3,400)
The Eagles defenseshould be up to the task against a Redskins team just scraping through the lastfew games of 2019. This one could get ugly, even if the Eagles offense doesn’t clicklike it should.
FD($4,500) DK ($3,800)
You’re getting a discount on FD and the Falcons are not the offensivejuggernaut that the Saints are. I’m not worried about a repeat of last week,and I’ll be locking the 49ers into a lot of my GPP entries.
FD($4,200) DK ($3,000)
We saw what they did against the Bears in Week1, and I’m not convinced Mitch
Trubisky isn’t dreading the kind of pressure thePackers DST can bring. The price is more than fair on both sites for the upsidethis team brings.
FD($3,600) DK ($2,900)
The Rams are a huge bargain this week against aDallas Cowboys team that seems to have given up. I wouldn’t be playing them in cashgams, but I’m fine with shares in GPPs because the Cowboys may not have a planfor Aaron Donald and these greedy, aggressive corners.
FD($3,700) DK ($2,600)
This is about as low as I’d like to go in GPPs, but the reality ofthe Giants woes makes the Dolphins a unit we have to consider. It’s a team thatcontinues to get better and Eli Manning and the Giants aren’t really playingfor anything but their pride.
It’s time for our Week 14 DFS recommendations for the Sunday main slate. I’m focusing on tight ends (TEs) and defenses (DSTs) that will help you win!
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FD ($6,700) DK ($5,900)
The high-price tight ends haven’t been as reliable as we’d like and Kittle is coming off a disappointing performance against the Ravens, but he’s a lock-n-load cash game play this week facing the Saints indoors. If you’re not looking for value, I’m fine using big George here.
FD ($6,200) DK ($5,800)
With Josh Jacobs a true game-time decision, I’ll be snaggingadditional shares of Waller as his usage should probably increase in Week 14. Thebig TE caught 7-100-0 on nine targets last week vs. the Chiefs, and he’s a goodcash game play again facing the Titans.
FD($6,300) DK ($4,600)
Doyle is a solid play in all formats this week though hisprice has come up substantially after a big Wek 13 performance (6-73-1 on 11 targets).He’s worth considering for cash games and GPPs.
FD($7,100) DK ($6,200)
We’re getting a huge price break on Kelce thisweek on DK, but he remains the top priced TE on both sites. As consistent asany tight end in football, but he’s relegated to GPP-only this week against thePatriots.
FD ($6,400) DK ($5,100)
Henry was a disaster last week but is in a good bounce-backspot facing the Jaguars in Week 14. Even after the stinker in Denver, he’saveraging around 62 receiving yards per game – so I’m willing to give himanother shot in GPPs in Week 14.
FD ($6,600) DK ($5,600)
Andrews is somewhatmatchup proof and did well against the top-rated defense against TEs last week,so we should have shares of him in GPPs. He’s facing the Bills this time around,and they’ve done a good job defending TEs.
FD ($6,600) DK ($6,000)
Hooper doesn’t have an injury designation and returns froma three-game absence, and we’re hoping he’ll continue his breakout season. TheFalcons also get Julio Jones back, so I’m looking at Hooper in GPP only. Thisgame could get pretty high-scoring.
FD($5,600) DK ($4,100)
We discussed how Griffin isn’t a lock-and-load value playanymore, but now he’s questionable with an illness that limited him in practiceon Thursday and Friday. He has a good matchup against the Dolphins if he suitsup and isn’t facing a snap count.
FD ($5,800) DK ($4,300)
McDonaldmakes the value play list this week because of the matchup against the Cards,who just cannot stop TEs. He’s been quiet lately, but the Steelers need to getoffense from somewhere in this game, and McDonald is a low-risk optionconsidering the price and the opponent.
FD($5,400) DK ($4,000)
Gesickijust keeps producing, and $4K is still too cheap for what he brings to thetable. The Jets defense is a wreck right now and the Miami offense has beenclicking. Get Gesicki in there if you need salary relief.
FD ($4,800) DK ($4,400)
Rudolph is a top value play this week facing the Lions, andhe has at least four catches in his last three games. That sounds even betterwhen you factor in his red zone usage – as he’s scored five TDs in his lastfour contests.
IanThomas, CAR at ATL (FD $4,000, DK $2,500) – Punt Cash or GPP (He’s this week’sTyler Higbee)
JaredCook, NO vs. SF (FD $6,500, DK $4,200) – GPP only in tough matchup
DavidNjoku, CLE vs. CIN (FD $4,900, DK $3,500) – Risky GPP but high upside
FD($5,000) DK ($4,000)
The Packers have themost favorable matchup of the week (at home vs. WAS) and are an option in allformats. They aren’t cheap, but if you’re spending up, just plug them in.
FD($4,300) DK ($3,500)
The Steelers DST isstill way to cheap and you get a nice discount on both sites. This unit is almosta lock for 10 points every week.
FD ($4,800) DK ($3,800)
This isn’t a high-scoring defense, but the matchup could yield 10+points if they can create some turnovers. If the Vikings can salt this one awaywith the running game, it’ll help the cause of the DST.
FD($4,600) DK ($3,600)
Andy Dalton is back for the Bengals, but I don’tthink he’ll be having a lot of fun against the bruising Browns unit that stompedthe Steelers a couple weeks ago.
FD($4,600) DK ($2,800)
Probably a DK play only.It’s risky because they are on the road, but the matchup in Jacksonville couldsee the Chargers DST notching their best week since Week 5 against the Broncos.
FD($4,000) DK ($2,400) Last week we had the Jags againstthe Bucs, and that wasn’t even a mistake despite the Jags taking the loss. TheColts are a similar risk but this matchup bodes well for GPPs.
Week 14 is here and the window to hit big in NFL DFS is closing soon. Read my injury analysis of Dalvin Cook and the fades/plays across the league to help optimize your lineups. Let’s get to it. Note that all of the following prices are from FanDuel.
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Josh Jacobs ($7,400)
Jacobs came out this week and said that he has a “fractured shoulder” and he “just plays through it” which I find extremely odd. The assumption here is that if the shoulder is truly fractured, the medical staff doesn’t believe it is bad enough to shut him down. The most commonly fractured parts of the shoulder are the upper arm and the shoulder blade, but really there’s no way to know exactly what the injury is. What we do know is that Jacobs has seen a significant decline in targets in neutral and negative game scripts going from 5 to 3 to 1, and somehow to 0 (that’s zero) targets in a 40-9 loss to the Chiefs in Week 14. This decline in targets correlates perfectly with a shoulder injury as any type of scapulothoracic and glenohumeral elevation (i.e. raising arms to catch a ball)
With that said, Jacobs is a fade in cash games for me and I’m not confident using him in tournaments either until further notice. Unfortunately, neither Jalen Richard or Deandre Washington are usable in either formats.
Greg Olsen ($4,900)
Olsen is dealing with his third documented concussion which means he’s entered the point of no return in terms of predicting a quick return to play. It also doesn’t help that he’s nearing age 35 and the brain’s plasticity naturally declines with age. All of this means that Olsen is in legitimate jeopardy of missing Sunday’s game against the Falcons. He didn’t practice on Wednesday, and if he’s inactive on Sunday, Ian Thomas ($4,000) becomes an enticingly cheap option against the Falcons who’s defense gives up passing yards like it’s their job. Consider Thomas a cash game play in order to jam in your studs on this slate.
Update: Olsen did not practice Thursday again. He’ll have to clear protocol before early Sunday morning to play.
Taylor Gabriel ($8,00)
Gabriel remains in the concussion protocol following his second of the season and is in jeopardy to miss Week 14. In his absence Anthony Miller ($10,500) has come into his own as a second year starter and makes for an excellent tournament play in a game that the Bears should be down. Consider Miller a play in cash games as well in the showdown slate.
Update: Gabriel has officially been ruled out.
Dalvin Cook ($8,700)
If I title my DFS article “Injuries- Dalvin Cook/Fades/Plays” I should probably give a thorough analysis on Dalvin Cook, so here it goes. Tuesday Mike Zimmer said Cook is “fine” and didn’t offer many details about the injury. Cook offered us more insight and said his injury is “weird” but that he’ll be good to go for Week 14. He also added that the defender who caused the fumble “hit him good” in the spot that has been bothering him since the Vikings played the Broncos. Although the video of Cook fumbling in the third quarter is not great, the fact that the injury is labeled by the team as “chest” coupled with the video itself, leads me to believe that Dalvin Cook is dealing with a sternoclavicular (SC) joint injury.
Now, these injuries can be very painful but much like the AC joint, the potential for dislocation is the primary concern. If Cook takes a hit in the right spot, the clavicle can be knocked out of socket causing a whole host of issues that would land him on the IR.
With all that said, Cook has a decent chance to play this week depending on his practice activity, so be sure to check back in with me during the week. This injury makes Cook a fade in cash which is unfortunate considering this salivating matchup with Detroit who is awful against the run. The risk of dislocation and/or re-injury to the SC joint is too great for me personally trust him. Even if Cook is active, there is a chance that Alexander Mattison’s ($5,100) role is expanded to protect Cook in what should be an easy win for the Vikings. Obviously Mattison is the play here in tournaments, but consider pivoting to the Vikings defense ($4,800) in cash who should bully rookie David Blough now that he’s put some game on film.
Adam Thielen ($7,300)
It is obvious at this point that Thielen’s hamstring injury was made much worse by him trying to come back too early in Week Nine. He did not practice on Wednesday, but Thursday and Friday will be much more telling. Regardless, I can’t see Thielen playing this week, but even if he does he’s a fade in all formats due to the injury’s history. This vaults Stefon Diggs ($8,000) into consideration for cash games and tournaments as his floor and ceiling have been solid with Thielen out.
Update: Thielen did not practice again on Thursday and will need to at least participate in Friday’s practice to have a shot to play. I’m not confident in this happening.
Julio Jones ($7,800)
Jones is recovering from (what I believed to be) an AC sprain that he suffered in Week 12. The consensus from the reports are that Julio would have given it a go on Thanksgiving if not for the quick Thursday turnaround. Although Jones has not provided many ceiling games this season, I like him as a contrarian play in cash games this week against an atrocious Carolina defense that just fired their defensive minded coach Ron Rivera.
Austin Hooper ($6,600)
Hooper is recovering from an MCL sprain that he suffered about a month ago. The injury was a grade II sprain and has kept him out of practice until Monday this week. He’s now on track to play on Sunday barring any setbacks, but he’s on my “prove it” list before I play him in cash games. If Hooper still cannot go on Sunday, consider Russell Gage ($5,700) in tournaments who has done just fine filling in for the injured pass catchers of the Falcons. Atlanta plays Carolina in Week 14, a franchise who just fired their head coach and is in disarray. This could be a big game for the Atlanta offense.
Tyler Lockett
Hear me out. I get it, Lockett has only one catch over two games, but we have to consider the circumstances. In Week Ten, Lockett suffered a significant contusion to his lower leg that caused a two night hospital stay. That contusion lingered through the bye and showed in Week 12 as he tied a season low 19 routes run, a number that has dipped that low only one other time all season. Then in Week 13, Lockett was dealing with the flu but still played against the Vikings. In that MNF game, Locket played a season low 87% of snaps and saw five fewer targets than his season average. These numbers come against a struggling Minnesota secondary that ranks 14th in pass DVOA. I get into the numbers in my tweet thread below:
After the win on Monday night, Lockett was quoted as saying “I’ve been sick all week. I just want to go to bed.” What I’m saying here is that this is the window to play Tyler Lockett at low ownership in cash against a Rams secondary that is ranked 12th in pass DVOA.
Update: After not practicing on Thursday or Friday leading up to Week 13, Lockett is not even listed on the practice report for Week 14. As the kids say it might once again be Tyler Lockett SZN.
Evan Engram
Despite the fact that he hasn’t practiced since Week Nine, Engram has told reporters he’s optimistic about his return in Week 14. I’m not sold on this optimism as his foot injury has lingered as serious foot/ankle injuries tend to do. If Engram is active I’m fading him in cash. If he’s inactive yet again, fire up either Rhett Ellison (concussion) or Kaden Smith in tournaments against this Eagles defense who just got torched by the fightin’ Ryan Fitzpatricks.
Thank you for reading Injuries- Dalvin Cook/Fades/Plays. Hopefully I was able to provide some insight on this week’s injuries and provide potential fades/plays. Good luck in DFS this week!
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Thanksgiving is a beautiful holiday that brings together everything we love: family, good food, and a mini slate of DFS. This week will be different as I’ll be putting out two separate fade/play injury articles. Because of the short week, the Thanksgiving Injury Fades/Plays article is at a disadvantage, but I’ll do my best to project every significant injury that could affect lineups this week. So let’s dive in. Keep in mind that all of the following prices are from DraftKings.
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Jeff Driskel ($5,500)
Normally I wouldn’t mention a player like Jeff Driskel in the Thanksgiving Fades/Plays article but he is the Lions starter, it’s a shortened slate, and he’s dealing with a hamstring strain. Matt Patricia doesn’t say a whole lot, but even he admitted on Tuesday that Driskel’s hamstring is “pretty sore” which led to- checks to google again- David Blough taking first-team reps. Driskel is at serious risk for missing Thursday’s game but even if he’s active his rushing ability will likely be capped. Ultimately this means that at just $2,500 the Bears defense is an absolute steal regardless of Driskel’s game status.
Update: David Blough will officially start for the Lions tomorrow.
Taylor Gabriel ($4,300)
Gabriel is out with this third documented concussion, so first and foremost I hope he’s doing well as a human. His absence will open up opportunities for Anthony Miller ($3,900) who over the last two weeks has seen 20 targets and totaled 12 receptions. Miller should garner serious consideration in tournaments on Turkey Day.
Update: Gabriel has officially been ruled out. Smash the Bears DST in all formats.
Julio Jones (7,300)
Jones injured his shoulder at some point in the first half on Sunday, but I’m having a difficult time identifying when and exactly what happened. Video analysis can usually give me more context, but I can’t find anything definitive. The best I can come up with is an AC injury (think James Conner) late in the second quarter when he was taken down over the middle of the field. The hope is that since he came back to play later in the game that the injury is not serious despite missing two practices this week.
Jones hasn’t put up great numbers this year, but if he’s active it’s difficult to envision not sprinkling him into a few lineups based on his history of playing through injuries. An added layer to this story is that shut down corner Marshon Lattimore, who held Jones to three catches for 79 yards in Week Ten, returned to practice from his own injury last Friday. Lattimore has continued practicing in a limited fashion this week and has a chance to play. So in conclusion, this is where I stand on Jones:
Due to the context of this slate, there is obviously little clarity as of now, so bookmark this article for updates as the next day and a half unfolds. Understand that because of the murkiness to Jones’ injury he’s a more volatile play than usual, but still usable.
Update: Julio Jones is officially considered questionable for Thursday night. He certainly does not need to practice to play, but there is some cause for concern.
Devonta Freeman ($5,100)
Freeman is making his return from what appears to be grade I turf toe, which has a reputation of lingering. Despite the fact that Freeman is the only show in town at running back for the Falcons, it’s difficult to suggest him in cash. The primary reason for the lack of confidence is that the Saints are ranked 8th in rushing DVOA but are middle of the pack against the pass. In a game that the Saints are favored by more than a touchdown, Freeman could see a few targets, but considering his injury I’m only trusting him in tournaments. To Freeman’s credit, he has stayed relatively healthy this season missing only two games with a minor injury. After not having played a full season since 2016 and missed almost the entire 2018 campaign, it seems Freeman’s offseason work is benefiting him.
Austin Hooper ($5,900)
Hooper is highly unlikely to return this week, so look at the previously mentioned receivers to fill the void.
Update: Hooper has officially been ruled out.
Thank you for reading the Thanksgiving Injury Fades/Plays article! Also, utilize my post-Thanksgiving Injury Fades/Plays piece scheduled for Saturday. I’ll discuss Adam Thielen, T.Y. Hilton, Damien Williams, Evan Engram, and several other injuries DFS players are itching to hear about. Until then, be sure to check back with me as updates for the Thanksgiving slate roll in.
THANK YOU FOR READING. YOU CAN READ SOME OF MY OTHER WORK AND THOUGHTS ON MY AUTHOR PAGE. FOLLOW Win Daily DFS ON TWITTER @WinDailyDFS. PLEASE CHECK OUT EVERYTHING THAT Win Daily DFS HAS TO OFFER. NEW ARTICLES, STATISTICS AND DATA ARE BEING ADDED CONSTANTLY. ALSO, DO NOT FORGET TO LISTEN TO THE WIN DAILY PODCASTS HERE.
Featured image courtesy of Georgia National Guard.
It’s time for our Week 10 DFS recommendations for the Sunday main slate. I’m focusing on tight ends (TEs) and defenses (DSTs) that will help you win big!
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No tight end in the NFL has more double-digit fantasy performancesthis season, as Hooper has averaged 18.6 FPPG on DK and 14.63 on FD. Thematchup may be tough on paper, but the Falcons will be throwing the ball inthis one and Hooper is a lock for 7-10 targets each week. He’s got the highestfloor and a Top 3 ceiling.
Kelce caught 7-62-0 on nine targets last week, but with Patrick Mahomeslooking ready to suit up for Week 10, we might see the big TE finally reachpaydirt for only the second time since mid-September, when he dropped 7-107-1on the Raiders. I’m expecting a stat line closer to that than the morepedestrian totals we’ve been seeing.
The exciting young TE isfar from a cash game lock against a Bengals defense that may struggle tocontain Baltimore’s running game. Game script may dictate a conservativeapproach from the Ravens and they might just not need much from Andrews. But ifCincy can somehow keep this thing close, we could see monster day from him.
The Rams are without Brandin Cooks, and both WR JoshReynolds and Everett get a big bump this week against the Steelers. Everett hassome of the biggest GPP upside on this slate, and his price isn’t oppressiveenough that we are forced to compromise at other positions. He has three gamesof 15+ DK points so far, including a 23.6-point effort against Seattle in Week5 – so get him in some of your Sunday builds.
I’m notgoing to begin to parse how the pricing algorithms on FD and DK are this wonkywhen it comes to Ebron and his teammate (discussed below), but there’s merit toplaying both of these guys in GPPs against the Dolphins, who have done a betterjob keeping games close the past few weeks. Ebron is a boom-or-bust GPP optionjust about every week, and we need to consider him, even if we don’t load up.
Doyle is a huge bargain on DK and relatively expensive onFD, but he’s an excellent GPP option on both and could have a higher floor thanthe aforementioned Ebron. It would take some enormous hutzpah to play both in aGPP, and I’m not necessarily recommending it, but if there was a week to do it,it would be one like this.
Hockenson gets a favorable matchup against the Bears, who are 30thin the NFL vs. TEs. No major worries the concussion front, either, as he wasevaluated during Week 9 but just had the wind knocked out of him on a big hit.He’s an excellent GPP value play with upside.
Delanie Walker (ankle) has been ruled out again, and it’s asituation Smith is familiar with. He’s had a couple different results – with a6-78-1 receiving line in a Week 8 win over Tampa Bay and a not-so-great 3-18-0in last week’s loss to the Panthers. The matchup with the Chiefs is on the favorableside, as they are 22nd in the NFL vs. TEs.
Brate gets to face theworst team in the league at defending TEs and he’s the best option at theposition for the Bucs. TheKing is with me on this, so feel free to roll Brate out in GPPs and evensome cash games if you don’t want to spend up.
Griffin has double-digit fantasy points on DK in three of his last four and caught six of eight targets for 50 yards in Sunday’s 26-18 loss to the Dolphins. His Week 10 matchup is against the Giants, who are 28th in the league vs. his. With Chris Herndon questionable again, Griffin is a staple of my GPP builds.
Olsen hasn’t shown much upside in the past several weeks, as the Panthers offense has involved the WRs more and focused on being the Christian McCaffrey show. We’ll see another big workload from CMC, but the Packers secondary is more likely to yield completions underneath to Olsen than the big play. If this thing turns into an offensive explosion, Olsen could get more red-zone looks and make for a cheap, TD-dependent GPP play.
The suddenly relevant Gesicki matches up against the AFC’s second-worst team vs. TEs, and he’s been relatively efficient the past three weeks. Absent Preston Williams, the Miami offense could work him into more routes and targets for Week 10.
JimmyGraham, GB vs. CAR (FD $5,800, DK $4,000) – GPP
VanceMcDonald, PIT vs. LAR (FD $5,600, DK $3,800) – GPP
JaredCook, NO vs. ATL (FD $5,800, DK $4,100) – GPP
O.J.Howard, TB vs. ARI (FD $5,000, DK $3,300) – Punt
RhettEllison, NYG at NYJ (FD $5,000, DK $2,500) – Punt
Tyler Eifert, CIN vs. BAL(FD $5,000, DK $3,000) – Punt
The Ravens DST has a great matchup this week and has proven themselves worthy even against the toughest of opponents, with 31 combined DK points over the past two weeks against the Seahawks and Patriots. They’re easy to lock into cash games.
With 14 sacks over their past four games, the Saints make for a solid option in all formats against a banged-up Falcons offensive unit. They’re cash-viable with a 20-point upside in GPPs.
The Colts draw the best matchup of Week 10 and should be a chalky GPP option facing Miami. They’ve averaged 8.5 DK points over their last three and have a 15-point upside on Sunday.
The Rams are a sneaky play this week facing the Steelers, who seem to limit mistakes and play a conservative style that doesn’t yie4ld a lot of turnovers. Still, the Rams have a slew of impact defensive players who give them an enormous upside in GPPs.
In Week 10, the Bills facethe Browns, who make a lot of mistakes. The road matchup and two recent weak effortsare the only things that will keep me from using them more.
The Giants just acquired Leonard Williams from the Jets not toolong ago, and we’ve seen the Jets struggle to score the football in the redzone. They make for a boom-or-bust GPP play in a game that could end up being adefenseless shootout.
The Bears DST has been remarkably quiet lately, but Matthew Stafford and the Lions tend to push the ball up the field and throw over the top of the defense, which can lead to multiple turnovers. They’re far from safe, but they have an upside.
Scott Engel mentioned these guys, along with the Chiefs in hispunts column this week, and I’m right there with him. The Steelers defensehas been maddeningly consistent with its DK scoring, averaging 11.8 on the seasonand posting 19, 11, 14, 13, and 19 points in succession since Week 4.
The Chiefs defense – especially the pass rush – is underrated, andthey should have DL Chris Jones back for a second consecutive week, which meansRyan Tannehill could be in trouble. I’m on board as a GPP punt in large-field,low-stakes tourneys.
The Browns’ defensive line is loaded with talent and the defensive backs seem sot be getting healthy. They could give the Bills some problems, but they remain a longshot for viable production. I’d avoid them in lineups using Devin Singletary and/or the Bills passing game, obviously.
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Pick the Players that will get the most Receptions
Goal: 23.5, Prize: 3x
I am including TE Austin Hooper with WRs Julio Jones and Michael Thomas in this MKF bet, going for broke on the 3x, because these three guys can easily average 8 receptions each this week. Thomas might be good for 12 on his own, and Jones and Hooper each have about 7-8 in them too.
Photo of Austin Hooper via Thomson200 at Wikimedia Commons.
It’s Week 8 DFS of the NFL season, and I’ve got your Sunday main slate plays for Tight Ends and DSTs to win you some big green in cash and GPP!
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Houston doesn’t normally give up a ton of points to TEs, but Waller is no ordinary TE. And last week Eric Ebron had a nice game against them, so the matchup should be more favorable than the red numbers indicate. I’m going to have massive shares of Waller in cash and GPPs.
Hooper should get a boatload of targets from whomever plays QB for the Falcons this week, and he’s been the best TE in football this season (by a small margin over Darren Waller). Roll with him confidently against a Seattle team that’s been “no great shakes” – as the old-timers said – against TEs. He’s safe for cash and fine for GPPs.
Engram missed a week with an MCL sprain, but he’s apparentlyshed the wrap that was on his left knee – and despite the fact that he didn’t domuch in Sunday’s 27-21 loss to the Cardinals, he’s in a great spot now that he’shealthy and facing a battered Lions defense that’s allowed some big games to tightends. He’s a great option for GPPs – we know his upside and the recency biaswill keep him from high ownership.
Kittle (groin) just got cleared to play in Sunday’s gameagainst the Panthers, so I’m a little worried about cash games but he’s atop target for GPPs. As long as Kittle suits up and there’s no talk of arestriction, we’re getting aboard.
Ertz and the Eagles’ passing attack got stymied by the Cowboys,and the stud tight end ended up being a stinker. Worry not, Ertz fans, becausehe’s still the top dog TE in Philly, not Dallas Goedert, and the Eagles will bemaking use of him against a Buffalo team where they’ll have to throw underneathand trust their big targets in the flats.
Henry’s 2019 season got offto a bad start, but since returning from injury he’s had two big games – one abona fide monster (8-100-2 vs. PIT). The Bears have actually been just okayagainst TEs this year, so Henry is still fully in play against a defense that’sranked No. 22 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs.
Ebron could see a larger chunk of targets if Jack Doyle sitson Sunday, and is coming off a big game where he caught four of five targetsfor 70 yards and a touchdown in a win over Houston. The TD was a nice one, too,as he got his feet in bounds on a short TD pass in the third that helped propelthem to victory. Denver is okay against TEs, but his upside shouldn’t be significantlylimited.
The rookie tight end hasbeen building more consistency in his game but had some mistakes last week againstthe Vikings. We’re hoping for a high-upside outlier (like Week 1) in a matchupagainst the Giants, who will have trouble containing this talented pass catcherand athlete.
Brate takes on some moretargets with O.J. Howard out Sunday, which propels him into GPP territory at apretty low price on DK. It’s a lot on FanDuel, but he’s still in play forlarge-field GPPs – he’s got two TDs in his last three games and Howard’stargets, while minimal, should be heading his way.
Gerald Everett, LAR vs. CIN(FD $6,100, DK $4,300)
Darren Fells, HOU vs. OAKIND (FD $5,100, DK $3,400)
Jordan Akins, HOU vs. OAK (FD$4,900), DK $2,800)
Ben Watson, NE vs. CLE (FD$4,900, DK $3,000)
Foster Moreau, OAK at HOU(FD $4,900, DK $2,700)
The Pats remain the best defense in football by a large marginand get a team that coughs it up quite a bit. Do we really need to tell you toplay this unit in cash games, GPPs, or basically any format? The cream of the crop– and the price is still lower than what it could be.
As long as they don’t jump out to a huge lead and spend the final quarter or so in prevent, the Rams make an excellent cash game play facing the struggling Bengals. The Patriots are still a much better play at the same price on FD, but the $500 price difference on DK makes them worth a look if you’re locked into all the other lineup components and the Pats just can’t fit
.
It’s approaching Halloween, and Jacksonville can be prettyscary – especially if you’re already seeing ghosts. The Jags at home present aperfect GPP opportunity in a week where the Pats and Rams will take a good chunkof the ownership. The Jets produce just 142.2 passing yards per game, and rank 32ndin total offense this season.
The Bears are fine for GPPs because they have massiveupside facing the bumbling Chargers, but I have an inkling that Austin Ekeleris the magic man for them this week. The Bears give up a lot of passes to RBsand sometimes can get caught in over-pursuit, where Ekeler can make his mark inspace. I’m not going to freak out if you roll them out in cash, but I’d preferthe Pats and Rams. The price is certainly fair on both sites.
The Bucs turn it over a lot and the Titans have a solidsecondary. I could see 3 INTs and a pick six for this defense, and that’s the kindof upside we need to win GPPs. Just play these guys at this affordable price.
The49ers are loaded with talent and have played extremely well. Facing thePanthers and the versatility of fantasy stud Christian McCaffrey is a toughtask, but you can’t argue the 49ers defense hasn’t delivered this season. They’rea bit expensive, but fine for GPPs.
The Bills defense shouldn’t have much trouble containing aPhilly offense that’s missing a spark. The offensive line is dealing withinjuries and Carson Wentz looks off this year. If the Bills can pressure him,they might be looking at some big plays and enough sacks to keep them relevant inthe GPP discussion.
The Seahawks are a prime punt on DK at $2,800. They aren’t thedefensive juggernaut of the past, but even they can make some stuff happenagainst the Falcons, who have played sloppy football this season and may be missingMatt Ryan. If they have both Ziggy Ansah and Bradley McDougald for Sunday, I’dbe more interested in taking the chance in GPPs where they should be prettylow-owned on FD at the high price.
The Chargers are dirt cheap and facing a team thatstruggles to score. If they can get Melvin Ingram back this week, they are aneven better play. I keep coming back to Mitchell Trubisky, though. The dude isnot a great QB, and the Chargers have Joey Bosa to wreak havoc him and the underachievingbackfield.
The Bucs were second-to-last in turnover differential last season and they turned it over a lot last week (seven times!). But this is about defense, and the Bucs could have some under-the-radar potential in Week 8 due to the Titans’ inability to pass protect. They are risky, and the Titans have played better – but Ryan Tannehill is still Ryan Tannehill, so there’s upside here.
Evan Engram, Saquon Barkley and Kenny Golladay. Do not let the red crosses keep you from choosing these high-volume pass catchers from the Giants and the top WR on the Lions. They will see upwards of 30 targets between them in this game, so reaching 17 catches seems like its very doable.
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