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Atlanta Braves

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wednesday, August 04

Jared Levitt 4 years ago

written by Jared Levitt

Welcome to the Wednesday edition of Picks and Pivots. Today we have a nice sized 11 game main slate of MLB DFS on Draftkings to navigate through.

Main Slate Breakdown

It’s Jared and I’ll be filling in Brian over the next 2 weeks when I’m not writing Aces and Bases as he takes a much needed and well deserved vacation. We have 2 slates today but the article will be focused on the main slate.

Tonight should make for an intriguing evening as we have Max Scherzer ($9.1k) facing the Astros in his Dodgers premier. I’m going to be hands off tonight with Mad Max as this isn’t the match up that I want him in. The Astros have one of the best lineups in the business and even at a reduced price for Scherzer, the upside in value just won’t be there.

The ace I’m going to go with tonight is Lucas Giolito ($10.6k). I said it yesterday that the Royals aren’t normally a team to attack with pitching. But they are struggling mightily right now and lost Andrew Benintendi to a calf strain last night.

The Royals over the past week are striking out nearly 28% of the time and not putting much wood on the ball when they actually make contact as they have just 9 barrels. 2 of which came from Benintendi. Rostering Gio will make us want to have a bottle Rolaids sitting around as he’s been extremely inconsistent this year. He’s my guy though tonight because he still has elite K ability and he’s facing a team that’s struggling.

Where do we go next for pitching? Could we go to Coors field? I think I might! Rostering a pitcher in Coors is never a sure thing but we have a pitcher in Jon Gray ($7.2k) who has pitched well this season and has been able to navigate some tough matchups recently.

His last 4 outings have been against the Padres and Dodgers and hasn’t given up more than 2 runs in any of those contests. Over the past month he’s also seen an uptick in strike outs as his K rate is 24.4% vs. 21.7% for the year. He’s facing a lineup tonight that no longer has Rizzo, Baez, or Bryant. Outside of the Royals, no team has a lower wRC+ over the past week than the Cubs. Always a risk going to Coors with a pitcher, but Gray is on a roll and gets a soft match up here.

Now that pitching is out of the way, let’s find some bats. My favorite pitcher to attack is on the hill tonight in J.A. Happ and he’s facing a tough Braves lineup. One of the common missteps people make when facing a lefty is ignoring a guy like Freeman ($5.1k). Last night guys like Albies ($4.9k), Swanson ($4.2k), and Soler ($3.3k) all had ownership around 20% while Freeman was around 7%.

Guess who was the highest scoring of the bunch? Freeman. He outscored Albies, Riley, and Swanson combined. The match up tonight speaks for itself. Happ is a shell of his former self with an xFIP of 4.83 over the last month. He’s been especially bad against righties this year with a .270 ISO against and a 43% hard hit rate.

While I’m going to load up on the righties here, I’m going to make sure I include Freeman in my stack because he’ll go under owned in the match up and at some point, probably around inning 4 or 5, the game will be turned over to the Cards bullpen and Freeman will more than likely get a L/R match up.

With some of my Braves targets being on the high end of the salary scale I’ll want to find a stack that’s cheap and in a great match up. Look no farther than the Los Angeles Angels. As a whole, the Angles have been somewhat struggling but the match up tonight is just too juicy.

Kolby Allard has been downright awful over the past month. In his last 23 innings of work he’s surrendered 7 long balls and 13 barrels. If ever there was a pitcher that would waken bats up, it’s Allard. My hope is that Max Stassi ($3.3k) makes the lineup tonight as he’s been the Angels hottest hitter and has crushed lefties this year with a .216 ISO and .340 wOBA.

Phil Gosselin ($2.4k) is near min priced and should bat between Ohtani and Upton ($3.4k). Both Upton and Gosselin have wOBA’s over .340 this year against lefties. They are cheap and should be productive.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

Tonight’s slate has a land mine waiting for us in Scherzer. While I love his price tonight, I just don’t want any part of facing a solid Astros lineup. I’d much rather face depleted lineups like the Royals and Cubs with my pitchers. Enjoy our J.A. Happ day folks. I promise, it will be even better than our Lester day yesterday!

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 7/31 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 4 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s nine-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

No major weather issues to keep rack of other than a few daytime/evening storms in St. Louis (which could delay the start of MIN-STL but most likely won’t get serious enough for PPD) and possible pop-ups around Atlanta.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Yu Darvish ($9,600)

Darvish has struggled in July but he comes at a discount against a Colorado lineup that should have trouble hitting his pitch arsenal — especially the cutter. Adam Strangis points out in his must-read 7/31 Starting Rotation article that the Rockies are among the worst in the league (and registering a putrid -4.7 Pitch Value vs. wCT over the past 30 days). While the team’s swinging strike rate and K% has decreased over the past month or so, there’s stil a lot of K potential here for Darvish — who projects for the highest FD total tonight among the available SPs. I’m looking at a floor of around 30-35 FD points with upside around 45-50 if he can get the W and QS.

Best GPP Value: Joe Ross ($7,400)

The price on Ross, who hadn’t officially been named the SP for tonight’s game against the firesale-depleted Cubs as of 11 a.m. EST, is just way to low for his 45-50 point upside. The Cubs’ team K rate is probably on the rise, and that almost guarantees a 25-30 point floor for the Nats righty. I think both pitchers in this game can be moderately successful, but with the early absence of Ross in the available SPs (with the green box checked for “show only probably pitchers”) I could see MLB DFS ownership coming in way below what it should for good old JR. Hendricks is $200 more and doesn’t have the same upside, but I’ll use him in maybe 1/10 GPP lineups just to get some variance.

Contrarian GPP Play: Aaron Nola ($11,000)

While Yu Darvish is discounted on FanDuel, Nola is mispriced at just $9,700 on DK — so we could see the Phillies fireballer come in way at lower ownership than normal as the top-priced arm on FD. The strikeout potential is through the roof for Nola facing a Pirates team that struggles against his signature four-seamer, where he gets most of his Ks. On the surface, Nola’s price seems a bit high when compared to the overall numbers of both Brandon Woodruff ($200 cheaper on FD) and Darvish, so he makes for a fine MLB DFS GPP play that probably won’t eclipse 25 or 30% ownership. With some of the massive value that’s out there in our forthcoming stacks, it shouldn’t be a problem affording him.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Chicago White Sox

Both sides of this game could post monster offensive numbers, and while I like the Indians as a GPP stack, the White Sox offer the most safety in cash games and single-entry builds. Cleveland SP Triston McKenzie has some electric stuff, but he walks 6.37 batters per 9 IP and is carrying a 5.61/5.15 ERA/FIP heading into tonight’s matchup. The three most important MLB DFS hitters to roster are Tim Anderson ($3,600), Jose Abreu ($3,400) and Yoan Moncada ($2,900), who came alive last night (3-for-5 with a HR and two runs scored). Abreu got plunked in the helmet last night and that caused a near fracas, so he might be looking for revenge today with the boomstick. Keep an eye on the status of Eloy Jimenez ($3,300), who’s DTD to with a groin issue, and also consider Andrew Vaughn ($2,900).

Value Stack: New York Mets

The Mets are in a great spot tonight against southpaw Wade Miley, who they faced on July 20. I always like a second crack at the same starting pitcher within a two-week time frame, and Miley wasn’t exactly boasting his best stuff in his last start on July 26 (my birthday!). They’ve added Javier Baez ($3,400) to their lineup, and he’s exactly what they need (.410 wOBA vs. LHP) to supplement the potent bats of Pete Alonso ($3,800 — and an even better wOBA vs. LHP than Baez) and the value laden J.D. Davis ($2,800) and James McCann ($2,200). Keep an eye on the status of the still-cheap Brandon Nimmo ($2700 — DTD with a hamstring “pinch”) and whatever the new lineup looks like with Baez in the mix, and consider lefty Jeff McNeil ($2,700) if he’s starting, since he’s sporting a .330 wOBA vs. LHP.

Contrarian Stack: Seattle Mariners

The Mariners aren’t a bunch that I get excited about stacking too often, but given the fact that they always fly under the radar and the smash spot some of these right-handed hitters are in for this matchup, I’m getting some exposure in GPPs. They immediately stood out when I looked at team totals and matchups for tonight and I as subsequently giddy to find out they were highlighted as the primary stack in Adam’s article (this could mean BIG GREEN SCREENS for WinDaily subscribers tonight)! I’m anchoring my stacks to Mitch Haniger ($3,400) and his .380 wOBA vs. LHP over his last 108 AB. Haniger has 10 HRs in those 108 AB and will be on all my SEA stacks. After that I’ll be mixing in three-man combinations among Ty France ($2,800), Luis Torrens ($2,600), Dylan Moore ($2,600), the recently acquired Abraham Toro ($2,500) and lefties Kyle Seager ($3,100) and leadoff hitter J.P Crawford ($2,500) — who both have wOBAs north of .300 against LHP.

One or more of that group might sit out tonight, so keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

4 years ago 0 comments

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 7/17 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 4 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s 10-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

There are some weather issues tonight but we can exploit that by playing at least one pitchers folks might stay away from becaus e of the PPD threat in Yankee Stadium.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Gerrit Cole($10,100)

Cole was brilliant in his last start and there’s nobody (except possibly Brandon Woodruff) with the upside he carries into this matchup. It’s the Red Sox, so it’s not an easy task, but he’s carried a 33.5% K rate into the All-Star break and could easily hit double digit Ks against this bunch. The only thing that worries me is the weather, so be ready to pivot to Woodward or another high-priced option like Anthony Desclafani in cash games if it gets to be a tighter window of clean weather.

Best GPP Value: Luis Castillo ($8,000)

The price on Castillo does not reflect his consistency this season or the ceiling that he has in MLB DFS. Again — the biggest problem I have with using him is weather, and if the chances for a delay are low enough I’ll take that chance in some GPPs. Castillo struggled with his command all day against the Brewers in his last outing, needing 102 pitches just to get through 5.1IP, but he did rack up 6 Ks. I think he’ll right some of that ship in another crack at this not-very-scary Brewers lineup.

Contrarian GPP Play: Nathan Eovaldi ($9,400)

Eovaldi handles the Yankees quite well, scoring 46 points (June 4 outing @NYY: 6.0 IP, 7 Ks, 1 ER) and 48 points (June 28 outing vs. NYY: 7.2 IP, 6 Ks, 1 ER) in his last two appearances facing the Bombers — who are missing some firepower tonight and are still stocked with plenty of right-handed batters. Adam Strangis discusses some of that upside in his must-read 7/17 Starting Rotation article, and I’m buying into that upside as a reasonably priced GPP option. Ownership should be low and I still think Eovaldi could get to double digit strikeouts as long as they finish this before the rain comes.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack (Outside Coors): San Diego Padres

The Dodgers in Coors Field are going to be the highest owned stack, but let’s consider the Padres. It’s fun to pick on Patrick Corbin, and the red-hot Padres lineup looks ready to go again tonight — but only if the weather cooperates. The smart-money weather sharps are projecting a late start and completed game, but we’ll have to double check before lineup lock to see if that’s still the case. Getting Fernando Tatis Jr. ($4,300), Manny Machado ($3,800), Tommy Pham ($2,900) and Wil Myers ($2,500) into my stack would be the top priority.

Value Stack: Los Angeles Angels

There’s no threat of bad weather and the Angels are loaded with value in this matchup against hittable Yusei Kikuchi. Aside from the mopre expensive Shohei Ohtani ($4,500) and Jared Walsh ($3,500), we can find lots of value in David Fletcher ($2,900), Max Stassi ($2,800) and Taylor Ward ($2,500). I’d probably try a few different combinations to mix things up, but I like that five-player pool of bats on this “other” LA team tonight.

Contrarian Stack: Atlanta Braves

I’m not convinced the Braves won’t just rock Josh Fleming off the mound early tonight and I’m really interested in starting the big righty bats, including switch-hitting Ozzie Albies ($3,700), Dansby Swanson ($3,300) and Austin Riley ($3,100), with lefty 1B Freddie Freeman ($4,100) finishing off the four-man stack. Ownership will be low but these guys have massive upside in this matchup. Catcher Kevan Smith is also really cheap at $2,200.

Good luck tonight, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Friday – 6/18

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Friday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a massive 15 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

For a slate as big as today, pitching options are somewhat scarce. The top pitcher on the slate is in Coors and the second “best” pitcher can no longer use spider tack. That said, the goal today will be to bring you 3 pitchers and 3 offenses that will help you get to the top of the leader boards.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Robbie Ray ($11k) vs. Baltimore Orioles – This pick doesn’t give me the warm and fuzzies as the Orioles have actually been really good against lefties. But Ray has been one of the most consistent and dominant pitchers this year.

Ray changed his game plan this season to throw considerably less curveballs and more fastballs. The dividends have definitely been there as his walks are at a career low. While he still is prone to the home run ball, not having meaningless runners on via the walk means most of these are solo shots.

This is the most expensive we’ve seen Ray all year. His price up due to his recent performance though. Over the past 30 days he has a 36% K rate. He’s more expensive than I’d like, but we’re getting a pitcher that has elite K ability and that’s what we look for in DFS.

Corbin Burnes ($9.5k) vs. Colorado Rockies – While Ray is the most expensive he’s been all year, Burnes is the cheapest he’s been all year. At only $9.5k, we’re getting a steep discount on someone who has a 41% K rate on the year.

Rockies are a team that we can attack. After Woodruff gave up 5 in the first last night, he settled down to blank the Rockies for the next 4 innings. There’s always risk to using a starter in Coors but between Burnes’ whiff rate of nearly 19% and his high ground ball rate of around 51%, I think he’s set up nicely to do well in Coors. Again, not safe due to the environment but I like Burnes to be one of the top pitchers on the slate.

Jose Berrios ($9k) vs. Texas Rangers – Outside of his start against the Royals a couple of weeks ago, Berrios has been pretty good this year and he has seen a nice uptick in his performance of late.

The lineup that he’s projected to face today has a K rate of more than 26% to righties on the year with an ISO south of .150. This sets up nicely for him to have a repeat performance of his last outing where he struck out 8 through 7.

One of Berrios’ favorite pitchers to throw is his curveball. Rangers, for the most part, struggle with this pitch. Only Nate Lowe has a wOBA greater than .300 to this pitch this year.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Atlanta Braves vs. Carlos Martinez – Braves somewhat under-performed last night. It wasn’t for a lack of trying though as they did put a ton of runners on. Where they struggled last night was with runners on as they hit just .200 with RISP. Hoping that was just a blip and they continue tonight with putting runners on. One or two balls drop and last night would have been a different story for the offense.

They get a great match-up tonight against a pitcher who is a shell of his former self. Don’t let his last outing fool you. Martinez for the year has been bad. His splits have been pretty neutral so I’m not overly concerned with platoon advantages here.

In looking at his pitch mix of mostly fastballs, sliders, and cutters the guy I’m locking in first is Acuna ($4.5k). He’s expensive but has smashed fastballs and sliders all year. Almonte ($2.6k) profiles well too and his low salary will help balance out what you’re paying for Acuna.

Minnesota Twins vs. Mike Foltynewicz – Folty has been brutal this year. He’s been especially brutal in his last couple of outings. The Twins get to face off against a guy that has a mid-5 xFIP who is also giving up just a ton of hard contact with a rate of 47%.

With Folty, we really want to attack from the left side of the plate (he’s bad to both sides though.) To lefties this year he’s giving up a .443 ISO and a 46.5% FB rate. The two main guys I’m going to build around tonight are Polanco ($3.6k) and Alex Kirilloff ($3k). Any Twins stack should have those guys squarely in the middle.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Jose Urena – Really love this spot for the Angels tonight. Urena has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball over the past 30 days. He has a 6.75 xFIP and just a 5.8% K rate over that span. He’s someone that just doesn’t miss any bats.

The Angels have a bunch of guys in the lineup that match-up really well to Urena’s pitch mix. Urena has been throwing his sinker about 48% of the time this year. Ohtani ($4k) and Walsh ($3.6k) have slugging %’s greater than .640 to that pitch this year. With them both having the platoon advantage, I’d start my builds with them.

Urena hasn’t made it past 6 innings since the start of May. The good news for us is that the Tigers have the worst bullpen over the past 2 weeks.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Pitching is going to be tough tonight, but we have acouple of elite K guys in Burnes and Ray who should do well tonight. The late night hammer of the Angels may lead you to the top!

Good luck and hope to see you in the green tonight!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Thursday – 6/17

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Thursday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a nice sized 8 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

We are back to a somewhat underwhelming pitching slate. The top pitcher on tonight’s slate is a bit overpriced for my liking but I do think we have some other pitchers we can use to exploit some weaker offenses. The goal today will be to bring you 3 pitchers and 3 offenses that will help you get to the top of the leader boards.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

While Ohtani is very playable on DK tonight, on FD he’s just way too expensive. I love the match-up, but $11k for someone that almost never goes past 6 innings is just too steep for me.

Marcus Stroman ($9.9k) vs. Chicago Cubs – I should start with saying that $9.9k for Stroman is about $1k more than I’d like to spend on him. That said, the match-up is very good and he’s been flashing some more K upside recently.

Between Walker and Degrom the Cubs struck out 20 times over the last 2 days to Mets starters. We know we have a team here that has a strong tendency to whiff. On the year they’re striking out nearly 26% of the time to righties. That pretty much aligns with Stroman’s K rate over the past 30 days, 26%. This is a great spot for Stroman to continue a great run he’s had over the past couple of weeks.

Brandon Woodruff ($10.8k) vs. Colorado Rockies – I don’t often recommend a pitcher in Coors but with limited options on the mound tonight, we have to bring Woodruff into the convo. This is the cheapest that Woodruff has been since around this time last month. With his elite K rate of more than 31% on the year we’re getting a top pitcher who will most likely go a bit under owned due to the environment.

What has me feeling a little more comfortable with this pick tonight is the fact that Woodruff has really been limiting hard contact over the past 30 days. He’s actually been giving up more soft contact than hard. If we add in that plus his strike out ability, he should be able to neutralize the Coors effect. Not a safe pick by any means due to the environment, but we’re limited tonight.

Joe Musgrove ($8.5k) vs. Cincinnati Reds – The Reds away from GAB are a very different team. All of their power metrics take a nosedive. Their OPS drops from .829 to .684, which is mostly driven by a drop in their slugging % from .480 to .379.

Peralta showed yesterday that the Reds can strike out when up against a strong right handed pitcher. While I wouldn’t put Musgrove in the same category as Peralta in terms of K’s, he has shown over course of the year that he can strike out batters with the best of them. He’s had 4 games of 10 or more strikeouts this year. Over the past 30 day he has 35% K rate. The K’s are there for him tonight. At only $8.5k there’s a chance for a really strong return on our investment.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Michael King – This is going to be a tough night for King. He’s facing a team that has just absolutely destroyed right handed pitching this season. Blue Jays have a .193 ISO vs. righties and an OPS of .785.

In looking at pitch data, the match-up just gets worse for him as the Blue Jays hit the sinker hard. Biggio ($3.4k), Guerrero ($4.4k), Bichette ($4.2k), Gurriel ($2.5k), and Semien ($3.8k) all have slugging %’s greater than .500 against the pitch this year.

We’ve seen the Blue Jays put up big numbers this year, tonight is a chance for them to do it again. With pitching being on the cheaper side, this expensive stack doesn’t scare me too much. Especially if you add in Gurriel.

Atlanta Braves vs. John Gant – Braves vs. lefties this year, not so much. Braves vs. righties, let’s roll! Of the teams playing tonight, only the Blue Jays have a higher ISO against the handedness of the pitcher they’re going against. Braves have an ISO of .187 against righties this year and an OPS Of .739. These are two key metrics I like to look at when looking for stacks as they show power and the ability to get on base.

With Gant’s lean towards throwing sinkers, I’m going to focus on the guys here that have done extremely well against the sinker this year. Acuna ($4.5k), Riley ($3.1k), and Swanson ($2.7k) all have slugging %’s of .480 or higher. Both Acuna and Swanson have hard hit rates over 50% to this pitch. Braves are in a great spot tonight to put up a healthy amount of runs.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Justin Dunn – Dunn gets the daunting task on taking on the Rays tonight. It’s been an up and down campaign for Dunn this year. He’s shown the flashes at times that made him a top pick of the Mets a few years ago. But he’s also had a ton of down spots and that’s why we’re attacking him today.

He’s giving up a ton of hard contact to lefties this year. Lefties have a 47% hard hit rate. There’s a near 38% difference between his hard and soft contact to lefties. My focus will be on the usual suspects here. Lowe ($2.8k), Meadows ($3.6k), and Choi ($3.1k) all have strong numbers against Dunn’s pitch profile. If you want really cheap exposure here, Kiermaier ($2.2k) also profiles really well in this spot.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

With no true aces tonight outside of an overpriced Ohtani, we have some solid pitchers in price ranges that will allow us to get some of the higher priced bats. This has the makings of a high offense type of night.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green tonight!

4 years ago 0 comments

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 6/12 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 4 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s monster 14-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 4:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

The weather concerns in this slate are sparse and minor, and we shouldn’t be concerned about any delays that could impact the pitchers we’re targeting today.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Corbin Burnes ($12,000)

There’s definitely part of me who wants to roster Trevor Bauer, and the Dodgers RHP is certainly worth a look on DK at a discount, but on FD, Burnes makes the most sense as top dog, as he possesses the most strikeout upside on the slate. While some simulations actually have Bauer projected for a higher total tonight (even WinDaily’s model gives Bauer the slight value edge — likely due to the TEX team K rate of 26.8% vs. RHP), the new crackdown on foreign substances has had a detrimental effect on the K numbers of a few pitchers, “Tricky Trevor” included. Burnes, as Adam Strangis points out in his must-read 6/12 Starting Rotation article, is coming off a monster start where he racked up 13K and 70 FD points. He’s a top five MLB pitcher and FanDuel’s scoring allows him and his 18.5% swinging-strike rate (a metric that ranks behind only Jacob deGrom this season) the chance at 60+ each and every night he takes the mound. We’ll have to get a little creative with our hitting stacks to build something we can be confident with, but Burnes is a great option for cash games and I’ll be using him in some GPPs as well.

Best GPP Value: Joe Musgrove ($8,300)

For the second straight week, Muskrat Joe takes our top value spot. He was serviceable in that role last week with a 10 K outing, but he did get knocked around a little bit to the tune of 9 hits and 3 ER — and the pedestrian 5.0 IP kept him from receiving the crucial quality start bonus we need from our SP. Adam and I both like him for today’s slate, and the fact that he’s kept his ERA, FIP, and xFIP under 3.00 in this career year make me happy to recommend him against the Mets. who strike out at a team rate of 23.7%. Musgrove is carrying a career-high 34.2% K rate and limiting his free passes, and the Mets don’t have their usually lefty firepower without a few of their better offensive players. Joe’s unlucky 6/5 start still yielded 36 FD points, and this time he’s the same price and should eclipse the 40 mark.

Contrarian GPP Play: Jameson Taillon ($6,200)

I was actually a little giddy when I saw that Adam was on Taillon as a GPP value play today, because he’s one of the first options I considered when I thought “contrarian play” for this slate. Taillon is effective against right-handed bats and the Phillies (who have a bunch of them) strike out at the third-highest rate in MLB (26.4% — tied with MIA and MIL). I wouldn’t blame anyone for going a little safer with value options like TB LHP Rich Hill ($7,700 vs. BAL), but the Orioles relatively low K rate (20.2%) vs. LHP makes me think he lacks the same upside, value and leverage for GPPs. If we want to stack some of the best bats, we’ll need what Taillon offers in salary relief to get there.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Atlanta Braves vs. MIA RHP Zach Thompson

AS of 11:11 a.m. EST, there’s no line yet on this game, but you’d have to imagine that the high-powered Braves offense is projected for 5+ runs against a 27-year-old rookie making just his second major-league start. Thompson’s minor-league metrics don’t jump off the page and the Braves have just too much firepower to worry about using them. Go with Ronald Acuna ($4,300), Freddie Freeman ($3,400), Ozzie Albies ($3,400) and a still-discounted Austin Riley ($2,700) in a four-man stacks, swapping out Albies for value options (and righty mashers) William Contreras ($2,200) and Abraham Almonte ($2,100) if you need the salary savings to get four Braves in your build.

Value Stack: Milwaukee Brewers vs. PIT RHP Chad Kuhl

The Brewers have a bunch of risky but potent hitters in their lineup to go along with the consistently excellent bat of Christian Yelich ($3,800), including Avisail Garcia ($2,700), Omar Narvaez ($2,200), Daniel Vogelbach ($2,600), ~~Luis Urias~~ ($2,700) and Willy Adames ($2,200). Left-handed OF Jace Peterson is also an option at just $2,200. I’m particularly interested in four-man combos that prominently feature Narvaez, Yelich and Vogelbach as a three-man core, with Urias, Garcia, Peterson and Adames alternately making up the fourth Brewer bat. Giddyup!

Update: Luis Urias is sitting this one out.

Contrarian Stack: Oakland A’s vs. KC RHP Jackson Kowar

The A’s are never all that popular as a team stack on big slates, and today they could be in for an offensive explosion against Jackson Kowar, who carries a 54.00 ERA after one career start — a rocky debut outing against the Angels on Monday. The usual suspects are in play here, from “Mashing” Matt Olson ($3,500) to leadoff hitter ~~Mark Canha~~ ($3,700) and a slew of low-priced options including Tony Kemp (just $2,000!), ~~Jed Lowrie~~ ($2,900) and Sean Murphy ($2,400). I’m also quite enamored with Seth Brown ($2,400) as a risk-reward value option, and I’ll be mixing and matching a few different four-man combinations of these six A’s hitters in my large-field GPP entries.

Update: Both Lowrie and Canha are not starting on Saturday.

Other stacking options: NYY RH bats vs. PHI RHP Vince Velazquez, CIN LH bats vs. COL RHP German Marquez

Good luck, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 6/5 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 4 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s six-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

No major weather concerns, but there’s a game in Coors with an 11.5 point total and two pitchers, one — LHP Kyle Freeland — with 7 BB in 8.0 IP so far this season and the other, visiting lefty SP Cole Irvin — with a .358 career road wOBA. It goes without saying to get exposure to this game, but we’ll give you some other options to consider.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Jacob deGrom ($11,500)

It’s hard to click any other name at SP on FD, even though Kevin Gausman’s last four starts (averaging 52.5 FD points and 9 K per game) have the edge on deGrom’s last four (43.25 FD points and 8 K per game). The Mets ace costs just $300 more than Gausman and boasts a very silly 1.53 xFIP, compared to a still-impressive 3.07 for the Giants RHP. I’ll have shares of both, but deGrom is still deGOAT.

Best GPP Value: Joe Musgrove ($8,300)

He’s much harder to trust than the big dogs, but Muskrat Joe (2.08 ERA, 2.65 xFIP, 11.72 K/9 in 11 starts this season) is a dynamic pitcher who can break a slate. The salary savings allow you to get whatever Coors game stack you want, albeit with a much higher risk. There are definitely signs that regression is coming, as Musgrove’s .212 BABIP is a solid 80 percentage points lower than his career metric (.294), but I’m willing to ride out another start about this pesky DFS darling.

Contrarian GPP Play: Kevin Gausman ($11,200)

Gausman’s numbers are amazing this season, and as discussed earlier in the deGrom writeup, he’s on a helluva run with his K numbers. The Cubs strike out at a 25.2% team rate, a lot more than the Padres (21.1%), so I’m inclined to be overweight on Gausman in GPPs for the additional leverage, as deGrom should still earn more ownership. Again — pricing is pretty soft for some of the high-projected-total games, so the big spend SPs will make up about 90 percent of the ownership.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Colorado Rockies vs. OAK LHP Cole Irvin

The A’s are a fine choice for top spot too, with Mark Canha ($4,200), Matt Chapman ($3,800), Matt Olson ($4,400)and Jed Lowrie ($3,600) being the obvious four-man stack at or near the top of the order. But they are pretty expensive, and they might be tough to fit in some cases with deGrom or Gausman up top. Canha is an impressive hitter who sees the ball well and makes for an amazing leadoff hitter in Coors, so I’ll haver some Colorado stacks that add on him as the primary one-off for OAK, and then find a three-man stack from another game for leverage. For the Rockies, I prefer C.J. Cron ($3,700), Charlie Blackmon ($3,900), Garrett Hampson ($3,300) and Joshua Fuentes ($3,400) against Irvin (who’s given up 24 hits over his last three starts), though there may be some other necessary value plays depending on who starts.

Value Stack: New York Yankees vs. BOS LHP Eduardo Rodriguez

Rodriguez has been very “gettable” in his last three starts, and while the Yankees strike out a lot, Yankee Stadium is getting hot and humid and the wind is blowing out to right center today, aiding some of those power righty bats in the Bronx. There’s loads of value and upside in rostering a three or four-man Yankees stack tonight, with D.J. LeMahieu ($3,000), Aaron Judge ($3,600) and Gleyber Torres ($2,900) as my three favorite “spends” and Gio Urshela ($2,500), Gary Sanchez ($2,400) and Clint Frazier ($2,300) clocking in with serious bargain prices.

Contrarian Stack: Los Angeles Angels vs. SEA LHP Yusei Kikuchi

Kikuchi has been okay in 2021, but he hasn’t been missing as many bats in his last few starts, opening himself up for a possible letdown against the home team Angels and their parade of right-handed power bats, including Justin Upton ($3,000), Anthony Rendon ($3,200) and Taylor Ward. ($2,600) And there’s obviously Shohei Ohtani ($4,000), whose metrics against LHP are a bit down in ’21. But $2K punts Phil Gosselin ($2,000) and Juan Lagares ($2,000) are in play (if they play) tonight, as Gosselin boasts great numbers vs. LHP (.460 wOBA in 26 AB this season)

Good luck, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 5/29 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 4 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s four-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

It’s another busy day for weather, but initial forecasts project only one game on the main slate that could be impacted: ATL @NYM — which they should be able to get in with a late start and under a light, steady rain.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Julio Urias ($11,500)

Ownership is going to be heavily weighted toward Urias, who’s the obvious choice in cash games. He’s got the most upside of any pitcher on the slate and easily boasts the highest floor because of the matchup. With four 50+ FD point performances among his last seven starts, Urias is coming into his own as a reliable fantasy starter after being brought slowly along by the Dodgers in his first few seasons in the big leagues. The Giants have a team K% of 26.2% — seventh highest in MLB — and the Dodgers are the biggest favorites in this four-game slate. Don’t overthink this one. Urias should be a lock for your cash games and in the majority of your GPP lineups.

Best GPP Value: Ian Anderson ($9,000)

For whatever reason, Ian Anderson’s weekly start for Atlanta almost always lands on a Saturday night, which is just fine with me considering he’s my favorite young pitcher in baseball for selfish reasons: he’s from about a half-hour away in upstate New York’s Capital Region, and is probably the best pitcher to some out of this area in decades. Pitching in a steady rain should be a familiar thing for a guy from just north of Albany, NY. The talented hurler didn’t issue a walk or accumulated any earned runs in his last start en route to 46 FanDuel points — a perfectly viable number given the difficulty this slate presents for pitching options. While the Mets don’t strike out at a particularly high rate, they do have one of the league’s most feeble team wOBA marks — just .291. Compare that to what the Braves lineup offers — a /327 team wOBA — and you’ve got a recipe for another victory and 35-45 FD points.

Contrarian GPP Value: Mike Foltynewicz ($7,100)

This makes two SP options on tonight’s slate with WinDaily narratives. While I don’t know my area’s local product (Anderson) personally, Nick Bretwisch is buddies with Mike Foltynewicz (it’s a Minooka, Illinois thing) and he’s continually come through with the best spots to deploy Folty in our MLB DFS builds. On FanDuel tonight, he’s more of a large-field GPP contrarian play, since his K totals are a little lower this season. The silver lining, however, is in the opponent’s propensity to strike out. The Mariners have a team K% of 26.2% — sixth highest in baseball this season — and they sport the second-lowest team wOBA (.285) against RHP. If you’re hell-bent on jamming in the most expensive bats on the slate and/or want to get a little crazy at SP, Folty has some modest upside vs,. SEA.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: St. Louis Cardinals vs. ARI RHP Seth Frankoff

Only two teams in yesterday’s slate scored more runs than the Cards, who beat the D-Backs 8-6 and helped secure a lot of green screens for folks that trusted they’d easily handle LHP Madison Bumgarner. Today they face a right-hander, but it’s a guy with considerably less major-league experience in Frankoff, who has just 13.1 IP under his belt in MLB. Frankoff is a 32-year-old journeyman who spent some time in Korea and is with his fifth major-league organization — a sign he’s not missing a whole lot of bats at this level. The Cards should be able to take advantage of his 6.46 FIP with their usual array of potent bats, including Paul Goldschmidt ($3,100), Nolan Arenado ($3,600), Dylan Carlson (underpriced at just $2,200) and Tyler O’Neill ($3,000) — who went deep last night and boasts a .370 wOBA and nine HR vs. RHP over his last 88 big league AB. I also like switch-hitting leadoff hitter Tommy Edman ($2,700) and there’s also an opportunity to do a full game stack here and run back some bats from Arizona: Josh Rojas ($2,300), Carson Kelly ($3,200), Ketel Marte ($3,300), David Peralta ($2,500), Pavin Smith ($2,600) and Eduardo Escobar ($2,700) are all woefully mispriced for this slate.

Value Stack: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. SFG RHP Logan Webb

It’s bizarre to see the Dodgers listed as a value stack, but after you get past the high-priced bats of Mookie Betts ($3,900) and Max Muncy ($3,600), there’s a couple lefty hitters we can target for their value (Gavin Lux at $2,600 and upside-laden Matt Beaty at just $2,100) along with Justin Turner ($2,900), Chris Turner ($3,100) and Will Smith ($2,900). The Dodgers projected team run total is actually right around what the D-Backs are expected, so I’ll probably make a balance four-man stacks of each team (and some 2 LAD +2 ARI builds) against my four-man Cards stacks.

Contrarian Stack: Texas Rangers vs. SEA RHP Justin Dunn

Tonight might be a really good night to experiment with low-stakes multi-entry GPP and leaving some money on the table, which means we can use some combination of Rangers 1-5 hitters in a few stacks with Dunn on the mound for Seattle. Dunn’s 3.40 ERA belies an xFIP of 5.76 — good news for guys like Willie Calhoun ($3,000), Nate Lowe ($2,900), Adolis Garcia ($4,300) and Joey Gallo ($3,200). Brock Holt ($2,500) has excellent numbers vs. RHP as well. The price tag and RHP vs. RHB matchup for Garcia might scare some folks away, but he makes for a great one-off even if you’re not stacking the Rangers, with a .400 wOBA, a .330 ISO and nine HR in less than 100 AB vs. RHP. Whatever you plan on doing, I’d include some of these Rangers bats in my GPP builds at what could be relatively low ownership even on a slate this small.

Good luck, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Thursday, 5/13

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Thursday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have 2 smaller sized slates on Fanduel. One 5 game slate starting at 12:20 ET and one 6 game slate starting at 7:10 ET.

We have a handful of options for pitching on both slates and we also have the long awaited debut of the guy the Mets the traded to Seattle for Robinson Cano, Jared Kelenic.

With that being said, let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Early Slate Aces

Jack Flaherty ($10.5k) vs. Milwaukee Brewers – Flaherty has strung along 3 straight starts over 45 FD points and hasn’t been below 36 all season. Today he faces a team that has struggled against right handed pitching all season.

For the season the Brewers have K’d at a near 27% clip to righties while also having an extremely low OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ to this handed pitching. Flaherty’s K rate for the season currently stands at 25.8%. W/ facing the Brewers today I think there’s upside in that number. This should be a ceiling game for Flaherty.

Corbin Burnes ($10.8k) vs. St. Louis Cardinals – Well what do we have here, a pitcher’s duel in Milwaukee. I haven’t seen any reports about a limit yet for Burnes. He’s coming off an asymptomatic case of COVID. Will the 2 week layoff from live baseball hurt him? It’s quite possible.

Before going down Burnes had been electric. He had an out of this world 45% K rate to go along with a 1.18 xFIP and a minuscule .55 WHIP. We saw over the last 2 nights what strong right handed pitching could do to this lineup. Both Woodruff and Peralta combined to K 18 Cardinals.

We’ll need to keep an eye on any news to come out as to whether or not Burnes will have a limit. If he’s going to pitch a full load today, there’s no reason to believe he can’t outperform what Woodruff and Peralta did the last 2 nights.

Daniel Lynch ($5.6k) vs. Detriot Tigers – Lynch was dreadful last time out. I’m going to cut him some slack though. He faced the White Sox who absolutely dominate left handed pitching. A left handed rookie making his second major league start vs. a team like the White Sox is just a recipe for disaster.

Although the Tigers have been much better of late, they still are K’ing at a near 35% clip to lefties. We saw last night that even though they can string together hits and score a few runs, they’re still going to strike out a ton and K’s in daily are what we’re looking for with pitchers. W/ his price being so low he’ll afford you the opportunity to get whatever bats you want. Do you need to go here today though? Probably not, but because he’s facing the Tigers he should be in your player pool.

MLB DFS: The Early Slate Bats

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Patrick Corbin – The Phillies let us all down last night. The good thing about daily is that you can move on and start all over again the very next day. Corbin has been, for all intents and purposes, bad this year. He’s sporting a 5.37 xFIP and has given up a home run at a 1 every 3 inning pace.

For hitters, like K’s for pitchers, hitting homers will give us the most bang for our buck. It’s tough to chase homers, but when you have a guy that gives them up at the pace that Corbin does you gotta do what you gotta do.

Just looking at his game log will show that Corbin had 2 decent outings with 2 QS. Both starts show he had a greaert than 4.4 xFIP. He’s skating on thin ice every start. Do the Phillies let us down 2 days in a row? I don’t think so. Guys like Rhys Hoskins ($3.1k), Andrew McCutchen ($3.5k), Jean Segura ($3.1k), and JT Realmuto ($3.5k) all have long successful histories against lefties.

Atlanta Braves vs. Ross Stripling – While we’ve talked at length about the Braves struggles vs. lefties this year, the same can’t be said about what they’re doing against righties. For the season they have a 109 wRC+, a .332 wOBA, and .200 ISO. They’re doing really well against righties.

Today they get to face off against Stripling who has struggled this year. He’s sporting a 4.83 xFIP and has given up 3 home runs in only 16 innings of work. He’s not missing any bats with a low swinging strike rate of 7.4% and guys are getting a good read off of all of his pitches. He has a chase rate of only 21.7% which means guys are seeing the ball well and won’t swing when the ball is out of the zone. If playing the Braves today I’m starting with Ronald Acuna ($4.4k), Marcel Ozuna ($3.2k), and Ozzie Ablies ($3.3k). Vegas loves the Braves today with a 4.65 implied total. You should love them too.

Detroit Tigers vs. Daniel Lynch – I’m doing it again. I’m calling out a stack even though I wrote up the pitcher they’re going against. Yes, the Tigers are K’ing at an absurd rate of 34% to lefties this year. They’re going to K, but fortunately you don’t lose points for K’ing in daily. The Tigers bats have really woken up of late. Robbie Grossman ($3k) has been hot over the past week with a .461 wOBA and 6 wRC. Niko Goodrum ($2.9k) has been just as good with a .429 wOBA and 5 wRC. The Tigers are far from a safe team, but they’re cheap and have the chance to do well today.

MLB DFS: The Early Slate Wrap Up

The early slate will be a bag of mixed nuts. You have 2 games that should be low scoring with the Twins vs. White Sox and Brewers vs. Cardinals. You also have 2 games that should see some fireworks with the Braves facing the Blue Jays and Tigers facing the Royals. The Phillies vs. Nationals will be the wild card. While I think the Phillies should do well today, that game could really go either way.

MLB DFS: The Main Slate “Aces”

Pitching on the main slate is not pretty. While we have a few solid arms, none are in match-ups that scream success.

Trevor Rogers ($9.9k) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – Rogers gets a tough matchup tonight w/ a Dbacks team that has fared pretty well against southpaws this season. They have a 20% K rate and pretty nice ISO/OPS/wOBA numbers. So yes, this is going to be tough for Rogers.

With all that being said, Rogers has been great this year. He has a 33% K rate and a 3.44 xFIP. Don’t get me wrong, there are some caution flags. He struggled with a bit of control his last 2 outings with 5 walks combined between them. This caused him to leave both games after 5 and has brought his salary under $10k for this time since April. If he can have better command tonight I like Rogers to have a successful evening.

Christian Javier ($9.2k) vs. Texas Rangers – Strikeout pitcher – Check. Team that K’s a lot – Check. Javier takes his 30% season long K rate tonight against the Rangers who have been striking out at a rate of 28% vs. righties this season. I wouldn’t necessarily say it’s a match made in heaven, but it’s close.

Javier’s last two outings were not spectacular. He did however face two stingy offenses. I know that the Rays haven’t been great this year, but they are much better lineup than they’ve showed. The Rangers are not of the same caliber as either the Rays or Blue Jays. I like Javier to have a bounce back game tonight. This very well could be a ceiling game for Javier.

Zach Plesac ($8.4k) vs. Seattle Mariners – I don’t think I’ll go here tonight but Plesac does have a nice match up. For the season, the Mariners have struggled against righties. Their 25.8% K rate to righties is one of the highest on the slate. Does this match-up present some upside for Plesac? It certainly does. It’s also nice that we’ve seen an upward trend in his K rate. His last 2 starts saw a K rate of 25.9% and 24%, both above his season average of 19.3%. I do like Rogers and Javier better tonight, but if you want to spend down Plesac is probably the only other guy I’d trust.

MLB DFS: The Main Slate Bats

Cincinnati Reds vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez – I don’t often write up Coors because it’s normally an obvious play. Today I want to write up the Reds vs. Chi Chi. Gonzalez has a slate worst xFIP of 4.83. He also has a slate worst swinging strike rate of 6.8%. Finally, he has a slate worst line drive % of 33%.

Guess where the Reds succeed? Against righties. They have an OPS of .780 and a wOBA of .340 against righties this season. Considering the match-up and location, the Reds are very reasonably priced on FD. If their projected lineup stands, I’m going with Mike Moustakas ($3.5k), Tyler Naquin ($3.4k), Eugenio Suarez ($3.7K), and Tucker Barnhart ($3.1k). Not a single one of them over $4k in Coors.

Houston Astros vs. Mike Foltynewicz – Folty has started 7 games so far this season. He’s given up multiple homers in 4 of them. Does he make 5 out of 8 today? I think so! He’s giving up a ton of hard contact this year at a rate of nearly 40%. Astros have been great against righties this season with an OPS Of .740 and a wRC+ of 115. All signs point to a short outing for Folty. Using our match-up tool we can also see that the Rangers bullpen has an xFIP of 5.2 over their last 7. Houston currently has a 5.37 implied run total. That seems low for this matchup.

Miami Marlins vs. Merrill Kelly – This is more of a bad pitcher play than it is a good hitting team play because honestly, the Marlins have been pretty bad against righties this season. High K % and lower power numbers. But Kelly is bad and he should be treated as such. Kelly has the second highest xFIP on the slate at 4.77. While that alone would say, “Attack me with hitters” I’m attacking him due to his hard hit rate and low whiff rate. He’s giving up a 40% hard hit rate this year and a whiff rate of only 9.2%. Guys are just teeing off on him. In 38 innings of work he’s given up 12 barrels. That’s about 1 every 3 innings. That’s bad.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Hitting is going to be the name of the game tonight. Lots of offenses is good spots. Pitching tonight, we cross our fingers and hope for the best

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Tuesday 5/11

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a big 12 game main slate on Fanduel.

While we have one true ace, there are a bunch of really solid options that I like that are in good matchups. We also have a Coor’s game that may be impacted by weather again.

With that being said, let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Robbie Ray ($8.3k) vs. Atlanta Braves – This is purely a GPP play. Braves always have potential to put up a big number with some of the bats in that lineup. However, against lefties this year they have been brutal. They have a high K rate over 27%. What’s more concerning is their power numbers. They have just a .557 OPS and a .129 ISO. We’re more than a month into the season at this point. Targeting lefties against this lineup may be a thing this year. It’s surprising.

Ray has seen a resurgence this season. In his last 3 starts he’s gotten 40, 39, and 40 FD points. At his price point, that’s damn good. His price is starting to creep up based on his recent production but it’s still in a manageable zone. So is this resurgence real? Or is it a façade?

Ray is relying more on his fastball this year than he has in years past. He’s throwing it over 60% of the time compared to a career average of 50%. Ray’s biggest battle in his career has been his control.

Throwing the FB more has given him much better control. He’s getting first pitch strikes 65% of the time vs. 58% for his career. This has all really helped with his success this year. It’s the Braves and this match-up could go south really quick, but I’m a big fan of Ray for GPP’s tonight.

Freddy Peralta ($8.6k) vs. St. Louis Cardinals – Cardinals have a pretty potent lineup. They have big bats in Arenado and Goldy. But if they have a weakness, it’s against righties. While their K rate is average at nearly 24%, they have a below average OPS and wOBA to righties. Peralta showed last week that even if he gives up a few big hits, he still has the ability bring it back with his elite K rate of 40.8%.

Peralta is relying a lot more on his slider this year, throwing it 35% of the time. Some of the bigger bats in this line up (Goldy, Molina, and Bader) have whiff rates north of 37% to this pitch this year.

Really like Peralta’s chances of bouncing back tonight after a sub-par outing against the Phillies last week. Peralta gave up 5 ER early last week against the Phils but still managed to K 8 and get you 21 FD points. He’s someone that even if he’s struggling a bit can still put up a respectable number.

Walker Buehler ($10.8k) vs. Seattle Mariners – Stud Mariners prospect Jared Kelenic is expected to be called up Thursday. So we have a few more days of picking on the Mariners before they finally get some pop in their lineup.

First, let’s take a look at what the Mariners are doing this year vs. righties. They own a 25.4% K rate, a sub .300 wOBA, and a .665 OPS. They are a very attackable team when righties are on the mound.

While his K rate is considerably lower than it has been over the past couple of years, Buehler still sports a very respectable 27% K rate this year. A lot of this has to do with his first three starts where he only K’d 4 in each. Over his past 3 starts, he’s had 9, 10, and 8 K’s. Very encouraging trend. Outside of Mitch Haniger and to a much lesser extent Kyle Seager, this lineup really struggles with the pitch mix that Buehler will throw tonight.

One final positive spin for Buehler is his hard hit rate. For the season, he’s struggled with his hard hit %. It’s at 41%. In his last start vs. the Cubs it was down to 26.7%. I’m hopeful this is a trend that will continue. All signs point to Buehler continuing his string of strong outings.

A strong case could also be made for Brady Singer ($7.8k) vs. Detroit Tigers and Kwang-hyun Kim ($6.3k) vs. Milwaukee Brewers. Both are facing opponents that have K rates vs. their handedness north of 28%. The cons of playing them though are the Tigers are playing much better ball of late and Kim is a low K pitcher. On a night where we have decently priced pitchers, I don’t think you’ll need to go here.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Bryse Wilson – Wilson has been pretty dreadful this year. In a short sample size of only 12 IP he’s already managed to give up 4 homers. That’s one every 3 innings for those counting at home. Of all the pitchers on the slate tonight, that’s by far the worst. He is also sporting a near 6 xFIP and a swinging strike rate below 10%. He’s not missing bats and he’s giving up the long ball. Match made in heaven.

Wilson has been throwing his sinker considerably more this year, 25% of the time. How have the Blue Jays handled the sinker this year you ask? Pretty damn well. Vladimir Guerrero ($4k), Randal Grichuk ($2.8k), Marcus Semien ($3.4k), and even the struggling Cavan Biggio ($2.5k) have been hitting this pitch hard this year and with success. All have hard hit rates over 40% and wOBA’s over .400 to the pitch. I’m all in on the Blue Jays tonight.

Washington Nationals vs. Chase Anderson – Nationals get to face off against a pitcher this year that has struggled. Anderson for the season has a 5.42 xFIP and is giving up a decent amount of hard contact at 32%. He’s not getting many K’s as his K rate is a meager 17.8%.

We also have a pitcher that is a reverse splits pitcher. Since 2016, he’s giving up a .372 wOBA and a .249 ISO to righties. Because of that, we don’t need to shy away from someone like Trea Turner ($4k). With Juan Soto ($4k) back in the lineup this is going to be a tougher lineup. Yes Soto hasn’t been good so far this year, but it’s only a matter of time before he goes off.

Atlanta Braves vs. Robbie Ray – Wait, didn’t you just write up Robbie Ray as one of your pitchers? Yes, yes I did. This is a hedge play. If you aren’t going to go with Ray tonight, you should strongly consider the Braves bats. Yes, the Braves have struggled mightily vs. southpaws this year. Yes, Ray has been better with his control this year and in turn performing better.

We have enough historical data at our hands to show us that the Braves should not be this bad vs. lefties and that Ray can blow up at any time. Guys like Ronald Acuna ($4.5k), Marcel Ozuna ($3.3k), and Ozzie Albies ($3.2k) have historically done extremely well vs. southpaws. A breakout for all could very well be in the cards tonight.

Some other sports I also like tonight are the Chicago White Sox vs. Kent Maeda and Kansas City Royals vs. Matthew Boyd.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

This is going to be a fun slate. We have some really good mid-tier pitching to go along with Walker Buehler. We also have some pretty wide open spots for offense. There’s a chance for some rain in Atlanta but the game that’s really at risk is Colorado.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green tonight!

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Atlanta Braves

Main Slate Breakdown

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Yu Darvish ($9,600)

Best GPP Value: Joe Ross ($7,400)

Contrarian GPP Play: Aaron Nola ($11,000)

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Chicago White Sox

Value Stack: New York Mets

Contrarian Stack: Seattle Mariners

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Gerrit Cole($10,100)

Best GPP Value: Luis Castillo ($8,000)

Contrarian GPP Play: Nathan Eovaldi ($9,400)

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack (Outside Coors): San Diego Padres

Value Stack: Los Angeles Angels

Contrarian Stack: Atlanta Braves

MLB DFS: The Aces

MLB DFS: The Bats

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

MLB DFS: The Aces

MLB DFS: The Bats

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Corbin Burnes ($12,000)

Best GPP Value: Joe Musgrove ($8,300)

Contrarian GPP Play: Jameson Taillon ($6,200)

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Atlanta Braves vs. MIA RHP Zach Thompson

Value Stack: Milwaukee Brewers vs. PIT RHP Chad Kuhl

Contrarian Stack: Oakland A’s vs. KC RHP Jackson Kowar

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Jacob deGrom ($11,500)

Best GPP Value: Joe Musgrove ($8,300)

Contrarian GPP Play: Kevin Gausman ($11,200)

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Colorado Rockies vs. OAK LHP Cole Irvin

Value Stack: New York Yankees vs. BOS LHP Eduardo Rodriguez

Contrarian Stack: Los Angeles Angels vs. SEA LHP Yusei Kikuchi

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Julio Urias ($11,500)

Best GPP Value: Ian Anderson ($9,000)

Contrarian GPP Value: Mike Foltynewicz ($7,100)

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: St. Louis Cardinals vs. ARI RHP Seth Frankoff

Value Stack: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. SFG RHP Logan Webb

Contrarian Stack: Texas Rangers vs. SEA RHP Justin Dunn

MLB DFS: The Early Slate Aces

MLB DFS: The Early Slate Bats

MLB DFS: The Early Slate Wrap Up

MLB DFS: The Main Slate “Aces”

MLB DFS: The Main Slate Bats

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

MLB DFS: The Aces

MLB DFS: The Bats

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

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