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Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s seven-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

Some nasty storms firing up later tonight in the area of the White Sox at Royals game but other than that no major weather concerns for the 7:05 slate.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top Ace: Clayton Kershaw ($11,000)

The pitching in the main slate is pretty ugly, though you should check out the deep dive Adam Strangis gave us in his 5/8 Starting Rotation piece for more info. Kershaw is the top spend of the main slate and I’ll probably be avoiding Lance Lynn and the chance for a weather-impacted start for the White Sox hurler in Kansas City. I do like one pitcher a lot more for GPP value, but it’s silly to think anyone has higher floor tonight than a future HOFer in Kershaw facing their Pasadena counterparts. The Angels — slightly below league average against lefties — have a low team strikeout rate (second-lowest in baseball at 21.6%), but they also have the lowest projected run total of the 14 teams that encompass this slate. Kershaw got knocked around by the Cubs on May 4 but threw just 39 pitches and should be plenty ready for a MLB DFS rebound on short rest.

Best GPP Value: Ian Anderson ($7,900)

Another solid pitcher looking to bounce back from a bad outing, Anderson didn’t fare well against the high contact Blue Jays in his last start, failing to get into one of his customary bat-missing grooves. But the Phillies have the second-highest team strikeout rate in the majors this year (27.9%) and that’s what I’m looking for on FanDuel, where “Ks are King” for SP in MLB DFS. Anderson whiffs over 10 batters per 9 IP, and he’s been plagued by an abnormally high HR/FB rate so far this season. Expect him to notch himelf 7-8 KS and stand a very good shot at a quality start/win with his Atlanta Braves standing at -170 to -180 favorites at home.

Contrarian GPP Value: Garrett Richards ($7,400)

Richards has shown the ability to strike out 10+ batters in an outing, which he accomplished against the Mets on April 27 in a monster 58-point FanDuel performance. The Orioles aren’t the pushovers they were a couple years ago, but the team K rate is still 24.6% and their measly team wRC+ of 89 is uninspiring from a DFS perspective. If you’re looking for an off-the-radar play with some upside as a pivot from chalk and the obvious GPP value that Anderson offers, Richards could be a fine MLB DFS leverage play who’s capable of 40-50 FP tonight. Over his past 12 IP, he’s struck out 17 batters to just one BB.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Atlanta Braves vs. PHI RHP Vince Velasquez

The Braves have the highest total of the slate (5 runs) and while Vince Velasquez has been a dynamic pitcher in the past, his 2021 numbers aren’t great. His painfully high walk rate (6.38 BB/9) and high FIP/xFIP (6.13/4.62) could be a huge problem against an admittedly circular Braves lineup that features some of the best batters in baseball vs. RHP, including Ronald Acuna ($4,400), Freddie Freeman ($4,000), a switch-hitting Ozzie Albies ($3,300) and value-laden Austin Riley ($2,500). There’s also Marcell Ozuna ($3,500) and young C William Contreras ($2,800). The top MLB DFS guys from Atlanta are not chap, so I’ll probably make some different combos of four-man stacks with Anderson and a few with Garrett Richards.

Value Stack: Houston Astros vs. TOR LHP Steven Matz

I thought the Astros would be more expensive, honestly, but the pricing hasn’t caught up to just how hot Alex Bregman ($3,600) is getting. Bregman’s .420 wOBA this season vs. LHP is a number that’s actually come down since 2019 — when it was .430 from 2018-19. The team’s wRC+ is 124 over the past 14 days, a mark equaled only by the Yankees, who have seen their bats heat up behind a rejuvenated Giancarlo Stanton. Yordan Alvarez ($3,700) is a lefty who mashes lefties and both Yulieski Gurriel ($2,900) and Carlos Correa ($3,100) have massive HR upside in a lineup that produces lots of runs. Did I mention that Jose Altuve ($3,400) has four hits including a HR) in his last nine AB? Even Michael Brantley ($3,000) works just fine as a contrarian LHB play as the No. 2 hitter in a 1-4 stack here, and nobody’s price is too outrageous.

Contrarian Stack: Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles LHP Zac Lowther

We know that Bregman mashes lefties, but only Nolan Arenado (.460 wOBA, but with the boost of Mile-High home games) and J.D. Martinez and his .457 wOBA ($4,300) have done more against LHP since 2017. Mrtinex makes foe a great anchor in a four-man Red Sox stack that also includes Rafael Devers ($3,500) — who boats a .410 wOBA in 30 AB vs. LHP this season — Xander Bogaerts ($3,600) and the sneaky Marwin Gonzalez ($2,400), if he gets another spot near the top of the lineups tonight. Stay tuned to see who gets the final nod in the Red Sox starting nine hitters, but a core of Martinez, Devers and Bogaerts is a great start against the inexperienced Lowther, who is bound to struggle against the Sox tonight in Baltimore.

Good luck, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

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Welcome to the Tuesday edition of MLB DFS: Aces and Bases.  Today we have a nice sized 11 game main slate on Fanduel.  Due to the rainouts in Chicago and Colorado yesterday, those games were left off of today’s Fanduel main slate. 

We have ourselves a Jacob Degrom today!  Outside of Degrom there are some other solid options that can be utilized today.  There are also some intriguing hitting spots.

With that being said, let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Jacob Degrom ($12.5k) vs. St. Louis Cardinals – There’s really not much I can say about Degrom that hasn’t already been said.  He’s the top pitcher in the league.  Anytime he’s on the mound he should be included in your lineup, or at the very least, be considered for your lineup.  On the season he’s k’ing more than 15 per 9, has a ridiculous 1.39 xfip, a 23% swinging strike %, and 59 k’s through 35 innings of work.  He’s a generational pitcher.  Cardinals have a near 25% k rate vs. righties this year.  He should be in your lineup.  

If you are making the decision to fade Degrom today, here are some other options I like.

Nick Pivetta ($8.3k) vs. Detriot  Tigers – On Sunday we attacked the Tigers with Corey Kluber.  He returned the favor with 10 k’s and 8 innings of shutout ball.  Do I think we get a similar outing today from Pivetta?  Eh, I doubt it.  But I do like his chances of having a strong outing.  The Tigers are k’ing at a 29% clip vs. righties to go along with a low OPS and wOBA. 

Pivetta’s pitch makeup consists of mostly fastballs and curveballs. Combined, it’s about 75% of the time.  Focusing on his curveball, it’s a pitch that the Tigers struggle with.  Outside of Jonathan Schoop and Akil Baddoo there isn’t a batter that has an ISO great than .115 against this pitch.  Really like the matchup here for Pivetta. 

Huascar Ynoa ($8k) vs. Washington Nationals – Ynoa is someone who has gone a little under the radar this season.  Outside of one outing vs. the Cubs, he’s been really good.  He has a 2.64 xfip for the year through 27 IP, which is one of the lower marks for any pitcher going today. 

Ynoa mostly relies on his fastball and slider.  The slider is a pitch that the Nationals struggle with.  All of them whiff at a rate greater than 27%.  This is a high upside spot for Ynoa tonight.  No reason to believe he can’t have a ceiling game tonight.  He faced this team at the start of the season and threw 5 innings and k’ing 5 while only allowing 3 base runners.  Like the spot here.

J.A. Happ ($7.9k) vs. Texas Rangers is another intriguing spot.  Rangers are very attackable vs. lefties.  With some of the pitchers out there tonight, I just don’t think the need is to go here.  Especially with Ynoa at a very similar price point.  

MLB DFS: The Bats

Atlanta Braves vs. Joe Ross – Outside of one outing vs. the Cardinals, Ross has been pretty decent this year.  He has 2 QS and 1 where he got pulled just before he could get it.  I still like my chances here, and here’s why.  Ross is a predominantly sinker ball pitching.  Throwing it 37% of the time to lefties and 40% to righties.  Braves batters all have a lot of experience against this pitch.  Ronald Acuna ($4.2k) – .274 ISO, Freddie Freeman ($4k) – .333 ISO, Marcell Ozuna ($3.2k) – .180 ISO, Ozzie Albies ($3.3k)– .237 ISO, Dansby Swanson ($2.5k) – .207 ISO.  All 5 of these guys have had great success.  Due to pricing, if going with this stack I’m going to go w/ 2-5. 

Oakland Athletics vs. Anthony Kay – Kay is making his second start today.  His first start, it did not go well.  He only lasted three and a third innings after giving up 4 earned runs.  The Athletics have done really well this season vs. lefties.  Their K rate vs. lefties is middle of the pack at 24%, but they have a .766 OPS to go along with a .332 wOBA. 

The A’s will throw out a bunch of righties today.  Guys like Mark Canha ($3.3k)Ramon Laureano ($3.5k), and Matt Chapman ($3k) should all feast tonight.  Look for another short outing out of Kay tonight.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Eric Lauer – The box score shows that Lauer pitched well in his first outing vs. the Dodgers.  The advanced metrics tell a different story.  His xFIP for the game was 4.88 and he had a BABIP of .267.  46.7% of the contact he gave up was hard and he had a low swinging strike rate of 8.2%.  These are all red flags that mean he didn’t pitch nearly as well as his final line showed. 

Lauer in his career has actually been a reverse splitsy pitcher who’s done better against righties than lefties.  That said, the Phillies have a bunch of guys they’ll throw out tonight that smash lefties.  I’m assuming Harper sits tonight so 1-4 should look like Andrew McCutchen ($3.3k)Rhys Hoskins ($3.9k)Alec Bohm ($2.6k), and JT Realmuto ($3.4k).  This is going to be a really tough start for Lauer and I hope the regression from his first start comes tonight.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

This is shaping up to be a nice slate.  Because of the Rockies game being taken off of the slate, we don’t have to worry about Coors.  Degrom should carry heavy ownership, while bats may be more spread out.  There are some weather hot spots in Philly, Washington, and St Louis so you’ll want to keep an eye on those games. 

Good luck and hope to see you in the green tonight!

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Tenacious Strategy Session: Stacking in MLB DFS

If you are completely new to MLB DFS or just need a reminder, you ALWAYS stack two teams. This means you want four hitters from two different teams to fill out your lineup. The only way I would possibly not do this is on a very short slate (ex. two-game slate, four teams).

An example of a two-team stack would be one pitcher, four Astro bats, and four Braves bats.

Why do you want to stack in MLB DFS? Why would you not try and pick the best player from each team like with NFL or NBA?

The answers are because of all scoring correlates for hitters in baseball. If a hitter gets an RBI you also want the runner(s) on the base(s) who are going to score. For example, if the bases are loaded and your hitter gets a grand slam you get a ton of points for the four RBIs and the home run which is great! However, if you don’t have the three players on the bases that cross home plate during the grand slam you are missing out on three hits (or walks, depending on how the bases got loaded) and the three runs (that get hit in by the grand slam slugger). Not only are you missing out on these points, but it’s more likely than not your competition stacked this team and got the points you are missing out on. Therefore while you are moving up the rankings, you are still getting passed by the people who stacked making it near impossible to get first place. 

MLB DFS is very momentum dependent. This means if a pitcher is getting lit up momentum builds as players round the bases and the offense smells blood. Every batter wants a piece of the pitching and running up the score is on the table. Also, once a team is winning significantly, the bullpen is no longer putting in their best arms in an attempt to get a win. The BP may even let an unproven arm come in the game who is still developing and take his lumps while working through a high-pressure situation. This is a dream situation if you stacked against him.

How do I know who to stack in MLB DFS?

This is what I do. I pick my pitcher first. If your pitcher fails, you will most likely not be cashing so that should be your main focus. Once you have your pitcher write down your top six teams. I personally write down the starting lineup for each of the six teams I prefer and go through each eight/nine (depending on DH) hitters in the order they are batting. I cross out any batter that has bad (not average) stats against the pitcher (depending on if the pitcher is right-handed or left-handed). I mainly look at ISO, WOBA, Weather and Home Runs. I will glance at BvP (Batter vs Pitcher) but it is not something I focus on too heavily unless there is a clear advantage that has a long track record. 

Once you have the hitters you are considering from your top two teams see if you can fit them in a lineup with the pitcher you have selected. If one of your hitting combos in your second favorite team is not fitting then it does not work. You are going to need to move on to your next favorite team. Continue going through your preferred teams until you find a clean fit of the hitters you like. If you can’t fit your favorite team, that also means your competition won’t be able to either. Baseball is a high variance sport. Chalk in baseball tends to fail more than any other sport in my opinion. I hardly ever play chalk in baseball because of this. 

What order of the batting lineup should I stack in MLB DFS?

Try and clump your batters together best you can in MLB DFS. If you can take the 1-4 hitters that’s great. 2-5 works, 3-6 works and so on. You can also skip a player you don’t like and do something like 1; 3-5, 2; 4-6. Do not stack a team by skipping too many batters for example 1,3,5,7. This does not tend to correlate well. You can even go the route of stacking 8,9,1,2. This will be lower owned because you are taking two guys from the back of the lineup however you are still getting batters that are hitting in order. 

There will be times where you try and stray from stacking in GPP’s. This is a mistake. Your main focus should be picking your pitcher and stacking two teams in MLB DFS and not getting cute and cherry-picking from teams. 

Below is my best example of stacking from last season. I chose my pitcher and stacked the Mets and the Indians.

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We’ve reached the decisive Game 5 for both NLDS matchups on 10/9 DFS — here are my picks for the two-game slate and the featured Showdown.

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10/9 DFS Two-Game Slate (DK& FD)

The games: St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves (5:02 p.m.), Washington Nationals atLos Angeles Dodgers (8:37 p.m.)

10/9 DFS SP Strategy and Picks

I’m focused on the home favorite for SP1 here – since home-fieldadvantage in the MLB playoffs is a real and palpable thing. The DK pricing is,thankfully, soft enough for us to find plenty of big bats. For SP2, I’ll have alittle of both Jack Flaherty (consistent value at his price) and MikeFoltynewicz, who was excellent in his start on Oct. 4. Startingpitching has been really great in the postseason thus far, so youreally can’t go wrong with any combo.

SP1: Walker Buehler (DK $9,000, FD $10,300)

Buehler has the highest upside of any pitcher on the slate, evenif his leash is a little shorter than Strasburg’s. For the $400 discount, he’smy SP1 – and I’m fine with him being chalky.

SP2: Jack Flaherty (DK $7,400, FD $9,600)

Flahery has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since the All-star break (his .189 wOBA in the second half is almost beyond belief) and he went 117 pitches in his last start, which tells me the Cards are going to let him win or lose this thing.

10/9 DFS Hitters

10/9DFS C: Yadier Molina, STL (DK $3,900, FD $2,800)

Molina was thehero on Monday for the Cards, and while he’s back on the road for decuisiveGame 5, this veteran has had success against Folty in a limited sample (7-for-18,.432 wOBA with a HR)  Pivot: Brian McCann (DK $3,200)

10/9DFS 1B: Paul Goldschmidt, STL (DK $4,900, FD $3,800)

He came through for us on Monday so I’m going back to the well inGame 5. Goldy is one of the best fantasy assets in baseball over the past fiveyears and he’s a complete offensive player who can rack up the XBH. The pricehas come up a bit but he’s worth the extra expense. Pivot: Freddie Freeman

10/9DFS 2B: Max Muncy, LAD (DK $4,500, 3B on FD $3,800)

Muncy is having an electric postseason with a couple homers andthree games scoring over 20 DK points. He’s eligible at 1B if you’re stacking Dodgersand want to use Gavin Lux at second base for the discount. Pivot: Gavin Lux

10/9DFS 3B: Justin Turner, LAD (DK $4,200, FD $3300)

I’m not a hugebeliever in BvP, but a small sample analysis within the small sample frameworkof the playoffs makes some sense. The track record against Strasburg and RHPsin general is a good one, and Turner((142 wRC+ and .294 ISO this season) has homered in his last twogames this postseason. Pivot: Anthony Rendon/Tommy Edman

10/9DFS SS: Corey Seager, LAD (DK $3,900, FD $2,900)

There’s plenty of risk starting Seageragainst Strasburg, but he’s an exciting young player who came alive in Septemberwith a .304/.337/.646 slash line, seven homersand 23 RBI during the final month, and he has a clear affinity for playoffbaseball. He’s been getting hits but hasn’t posted the big lien yet. Today couldbe the day he breaks through with some XBH. Pivot: Paul DeJong

10/9DFS OF: Juan Soto, WAS (DK $4,500, FD $3,700)

I won’t have to much exposure to the Nationals in this game, butone player who’s worth the risk is Soto – who had a monster Game 3 and appearsready for the big stage of a Game 5. If the Nats pull this out, he’s going tohave a lot to do with it. Pivot: Clay Bellinger

10/9DFS OF: Marcell Ozuna, STL (DK $4,900, FD $3,900)

There isn’t a hotter hitter in the NL postseason than Ozuna, whohas multi-hit games in all of the NLDS tilts thus far and is coming off atwo-homer game in Game 4. He’ll be extremely chalky on this two-game slate becausehis game logs will attract plenty of attention from the masses – but you shouldhave some exposure to this slugger who hit 31 homers in 2019 and now has a.275/.341/.650 slash line against the Braves in 2019 if you count thepostseason. Pivot: Ronald Acuna

10/9DFS OF: Matt Joyce, ATL (DK $3,200, FD $2,300)

We need to find some value somewhere, so Joyce fits the bill if he’sin the starting lineup. If he’s not, you’ll have a difficult decision to make –since it could be difficult to find a viable DK OF under $3,500. Pivot: DexterFowler (DK $3,900)

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10/9DFS Featured Single-Game (8:37 ESTon FD)

Hitters only – so we can focus on the Dodgers bats we like andplay one or two Nats hitters with upside. We’ll slap the modestly priced JustinTurner in the MVP spot, since many will be drawn to the higher priced bats at 2x.

SampleFD lineup:

MVP (2x) – J. Turner ($7,000) – If he homers, he’ll pay off

All-Star (1.5x) – T. Turner ($8,500) – His ability to steal basesat will could be huge today.

UTIL – M. Muncy ($8,000)

UTIL – C. Seager ($6,500)

UTIL – G. Lux ($5,000)

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10/9DFS Featured Showdown (8:37 p.m.on DK)

It may be beneficial to play one or two Dodgers and/or Nats batswe like, somehow fit in Buehler and pick an off-the-wall bench player on eitherteam to come through with a big hit late in the game.

Sample DK Showdown Lineup:

Captain (1.5x) – J. Turner ($12,000)

UTIL – W. Buehler ($11,000)

UTIL – G. Lux ($4,200)

UTIL – M. Muncy ($9,000)

UTIL – J. Soto ($8,800)

UTIL – B. Dozier ($5,000)

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The 10/6 DFS MLB Picks is all about the National League Divisional Series. Get your Fantasy football lineups in and let’s focus on making the long green, diamond style.

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10/6 DFS Showdown

Using the FanDuel template, it’s 2x the points for MVP, 1.5x the points for All-Star and regular production for the three Utility spots. October is filled with unsung efforts, something to keep in mind when filling out the Utility roles. Look for players who’ve had success this season against a particular team, along with taking a gander of recent production. I’m a strong believer in OPS, more so if a strong OPS is bolstered with stolen bases.

Atlanta at St. Louis Showdown Picks

MVP (2x): Freddie Freeman, 1B, ATL, $9500: Slow start in the first two games, but he’s a .381/.458/.714 hitter versus the Cards this season with a pair of homers and six runs scored.

All-Star (1.5x): Marcell Ozuna, OF, STL, $8000: Went 4-for-8 in first two games of NLDS. Does have a pair of regular season homers off Atlanta pitching.

Utility: Brian McCann, C, ATL: Has produced 12.2 FanDuel points in the first two games. No homers but did have a .357/.412/.357 slash line against the Cards in the regular season.

Utility: Tommy Edman, 3B, STL, $7000: Scoreless in Game 2 yet had produced 43.9 FD points in his previous three games. Has a .929 OPS when batting second in the order.

Utility: Yadier Molina, C, STL, $5500: The pop may be waning, but Molina was an effective .284 when batting sixth with seven of his 10 homers coming from that spot in the order.

LA Dodgers at Washington Showdown Picks

MVP (2x): Trea Turner, SS, WAS, $9000: Three of his first four postseason hits have been for extra bases. Has a .511 slugging percentage at home and is 15-for-16 (93.7%) in stolen bases at Nationals Park.

All-Star (1.5x): Max Muncy, 2B, LAD, $8000: Owns a career homer off Nats starter Anibal Sanchez. Is more effective on the road, sporting a .939 OPS with 22 homers and 56 RBI outside of Dodger Stadium.

Utility: Howie Kendrick, 1B, WAS, $5500: Like Turner, Kendrick will be more valuable when at home. Went .374/.430/.638 (1.068 OPS) with 10 homers at Nationals Park.

Utility: Corey Seager, SS, LAD, $6000: Homered at Nationals Park this season. The pop was there in September (.938 OPS, seven homers). Is overdue for a breakout, so roll the dice and run with him.

Utility: Will Smith, C, LAD, $6500: Mashed righties to a 1.019 OPS with 12 of his 15 homers coming off them. Had four hits in six at-bats with a homer and two doubles at Nationals Park.

10/6 DFS Pitching Picks

1) Mike Soroka, ATL at STL (DK $7,500, FD $8,700)

The best of a pretty uninspiring quartet of pitchers, Sorka should be good for about 27-30 points at FanDuel and 14-17 points at DraftKings. His ability to keep the ball in the yard (0.72 HR/9) is bolstered by his low 2.11 BB/9 rate. Sorka is stingy when it comes to allowing fly balls (25.3%).

2) Hyun-Jin Ryu, LAD at WAS (DK $8,900, FD $10,300)

Road ERA of 2.72 is solid, but it’s not the 1.93 ERA Ryu posted this season at Dodger Stadium. Goes from averaging better than a strikeout per inning at home to just 69 Ks over 89.1 innings on the road. However, Ryu allowed just one run in 14.2 frames of work versus the Nationals this season.

3) Adam Wainright, STL vs. ATL (DK $8,500, FD $5,700)

It’s easy to forget Wainright still averaged 8.06 K/9 and held batters to a 28.7% fly ball rate. The 41.9% hard contact rate is a bit concerning, but I’ll put faith in Wainright’s 3.38 ERA and 1.103 WHIP over 12 previous NLDS outings.

4) Anibal Sanchez, WAS vs. LAD (DK $5,500, FD $7,400)

Sneaky enough to run with. Sanchez has three starts of at least 40 points at FanDuel dating back to August 23, with two of his last three starts producing 40 and 46 FD points, respectively. The Dodgers will be hard-pressed to get solid contact off Sanchez, who limited batters to a 31.6 hard contact rate off him this season.

10/6 DFS Hitters

10/6 DFS C: Will Smith, LAD (DK $4,100, FD $3,400)

Off to a slow start in the NLDS, Smith is the best bet to score the most points at the position. I’d pay a little extra to assure his spot in the lineup. Again, keep in mind he did hit well the previous time he played at Nationals Park.

10/6 DFS 1B: Ryan Zimmerman, WAS (DK $3,600, FD $2,600)

Owns a .966 OPS versus left-handers. He’s going to offer enough value to allow DFSers to spend liberally elsewhere.

10/6 DFS 2B: Ozzie Albies, ATL (DK $4,400, FD $3,400)

I’ll pay just enough to get Albies and his 42.3% hard contact rate against Wainright. Albies also has a 25.5% line drive rate.

10/6 DFS 3B: Matt Carpenter, STL (DK $3,900, FD $2,900)

The oldest son of my high school baseball coach had two homers, five RBI and a 1.096 OPS in 23 at-bats versus Braves pitching this season.

10/6 DFS SS: Corey Seager, LAD (DK $4,000, FD $3,200)

Falls into my “I have a hunch about this guy” section of the 10/6 DFS MLB Picks.

10/6 DFS OF: Ronald Acuna, Jr., ATL (DK $5,500, FD $4,200)

Slightly better OPS (.885) on the road than at home (.880). Acuna did hit 23 of his 41 homers outside of Atlanta.

10/6 DFS OF: Nick Markakis, ATL (DK $3,600, FD $2,800)

Has five hits in nine career at-bats versus Wainright (1.525 OPS).

10/6 DFS OF: Joc Pederson, LAD (DK $4,400, FD $3,300)

Potential to explode: Pederson has four games of at least 22.90 FD points since September 25.

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Today’s four-game playoff slate means the 10/4 DFS MLB Hitting Picks can go back to basics with a full lineup.

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10/4 DFS Hitting Picks — Catcher

Robinson Chirinos, HOU vs. TB

DK ($3,600), FD ($2,800)

Chirinos is devastating at Minute Maid Park, evidenced by a .915 OPS with 10 of his 14 homers coming in front of the H-Town faithful. He does have a homer among his four hits in 15 at-bats this season against the Rays. You do have to like his 39.5% hard contact rate and a similar 39.5% fly ball rate. He’s the best overall play among 10/4 DFS Hitting Picks behind the plate.

10/4 DFS Hitting Picks — First Baseman

C.J. Cron, MIN at NYY

DK ($3,600), FD ($3,100)

A value pick with good reason: Cron has six hits in 18 career at-bats against New York starter James Paxton. Two of those hits were homers, giving Cron a 1.017 OPS against the Pinstripes southpaw. Cron was able to cut his strikeout rate to 21.4% this season and maintained a solid fly ball rate (36.3%) while taking his hard contact rate from 39.6% last season to 41.1% this year.

10/4 DFS Hitting Picks — Second Baseman

Kolten Wong, STL at ATL

DK ($3,800), FD ($2,600)

Like Cron, I’m looking for past success against today’s starters. Enter Wong, who has a homer and a stolen base in 11 career at-bats versus Braves starter Mike Foltynewicz, producing a 1.625 OPS in the process. Wong went 2-for-4 with two RBI and a walk in Thursday’s Game 1 victory. That’s a tremendous way to shake off a sluggish September that saw Wong offer up a .735 OPS despite hitting .290. The free pass is encouraging since Wong had a mere .315 OBP in September that put a scratch on a Post All-Star break OBP of .409.

10/4 DFS Hitting Picks — Third Baseman

Miguel Sano, MIN at NYY

DK ($4,900), FD ($3,800)

Sano gives the Twins another hammer that has nailed James Paxton in the past. In 11 career at-bats versus Paxton, Sano has four hits that include a homer that helped boost his OPS to 1.326 against Paxton. A strong second half OBP of .362 was helped in part of Sano improving his walk rate to 12.5%. His HR/FB rate of 36.6% is downright frightening in homer-friendly Yankee Stadium. More frightening is Sano’s 52.7% hard contact rate.

10/4 DFS Hitting Picks — Shortstop

Trea Turner, WAS at LAD

DK ($4,600), FD ($4,200)

Turner admitted to “trying too hard” on Thursday night, so let’s take him at his word. He’ll need a different approach against Dodgers starter Clayton Kershaw, even though he has three hits in 10 at-bats against him. One way Turner could achieve that would be resuming his more aggressive ways on the road when it comes to baserunning. Of his 35 steals, 20 have come in enemy territory. He has a .444 slugging percentage against southpaws, compared to .512 versus righties, so look for him to more contact-oriented.

10/4 DFS Hitting Picks — Outfielder

Yordan Alvarez, HOU vs. TB

DK ($4,800), FD ($4,000)

The Rays were not exempt from Alvarez’s tour of destruction, as Tampa Bay hurlers allowed a pair of homers and a double to him in 11 at-bats. Alvarez’s best work came at Minute Maid Park, where he sported an 1.140 OPS built on a slash line of .349/.441/.699. Rays starter Tyler Glasnow allowed just one homer in 97 at-bats versus left-handed hitters. Facing a slugger with a 51.1% hard contact rate, Glasnow could see that number increase by at least one.

10/4 DFS Hitting Picks — Outfielder

Marcell Ozuna, STL at ATL

DK ($4,100), FD ($3,600)

Ozuna has a pair of homers off Braves hurler Mike Foltynewicz, who was shelled by the Cardinals this season for nine runs (eight earned) and 12 hits over 10.2 innings for a robust 6.79 ERA. Ozuna doubled twice, drove in a pair of runs and scored once on Thursday, making us all forget his .143 average against Atlanta pitching this season. Ozuna’s .243 batting average and .259 BABIP also make you forget his career-best 48.1% hard contact rate and the fact his 2018 BABIP was exactly 50 points higher.

10/4 DFS Hitting Picks — Outfielder

Aaron Judge, NYY vs. MIN

DK ($4,700), FD ($4,400)

Although he failed to record a homer against them this season, Judge did hit .462 (6-for-13) against Twins pitching, making him a good 10/4 DFS Hitting Picks play. He also comes into the postseason with the momentum of an 1.109 OPS with four homers over the past two weeks and an equally imposing .948 OPS under the lights. Judge also has three hits in five career at-bats versus Twins starter Jose Berrios, while his late season surge boosted his Isolated Power to .267. Ignore the 31.5% strikeout rate, and Judge offers you a hitter with a .360 BABIP and an intimidating 53.8% hard contact rate.

10/4 DFS Hitting Stacks

10/4 Hitting Stack of the Day: St. Louis Cardinals: Wong and Ozuna should be paired with Paul DeJong ($3100 FD), who has a homer and a 1.064 OPS versus Foltynewicz, along with Matt Carpenter ($4100 DK), who also sports a career dinger off the Braves’ Game 2 starter.

10/4 DFS Showdown

Using the FanDuel template, it’s 2x the points for MVP, 1.5x the points for All-Star and regular production for the three Utility spots. October is filled with unsung efforts, something to keep in mind when filling out the Utility roles. Look for players who’ve had success this season against a particular team, along with taking a gander of recent production. I’m a strong believer in OPS, more so if a strong OPS is bolstered with stolen bases.

My MVP plays for Showdown:

Tampa Bay at Houston: Yordan Alvarez, HOU, OF, $8,000 Salary

St. Louis at Atlanta: Paul Goldschmidt, STL, 1B, $8,500 Salary

Minnesota at NY Yankees: Gleyber Torres, NYY, 2B, $6,500 Salary

Washington at LA Dodgers: Cody Bellinger, LAD, OF, $9,500 Salary

10/4 DFS Pitching Picks

Justin Verlander, HOU vs. TB

DK ($10,700), FD ($11,200)

No shock here, as he is projected to deliver 45.03 points at FanDuel and 26.03 points at DraftKings. Verlander has produced 15 straight starts of at least 30 points at FD, hitting above 50 points nine times in the same span. The 12.11 K/9 rate assures DFSers of plenty of whiffs, and while the 1.45 HR/9 rate raises the eyebrows a wee, Verlander has been able to keep most them solo blasts.

Jack Flaherty, STL at ATL

DK ($8,200), FD ($10,500)

You could save some salary and run with Flaherty over Verlander. In his one start versus the Braves this season, Flaherty allowed one hit and struck out 11 over seven innings. His 0.91 ERA and .142 OBA after the All-Star break was overshadowed by a host of hitting performances and the “can you top this?” clash between Verlander and Astros teammate Gerrit Cole, but Flaherty’s 124 strikeouts over 99.1 post-ASB frames were anything but a fluke.

Clayton Kershaw, LAD vs. WAS

DK ($9,300), FD ($10,300)

Only Kershaw can post a 2.95 ERA and fan nearly 10 batters per nine innings post-ASB and still have people wondering about his effectiveness. The home run rate (1.41) was a career-high, and the 2.07 BB/9 was his highest since 2012. Name recognition will make his usage rate climb, yet Kershaw presents something of a bargain compared to the two hurlers above him.

Stephen Strasburg, WAS at LAD

DK ($9,600), FD ($10,100)

He’s good to go after throwing 34 pitches in relief on Tuesday, allowing just two hits and fanning four. Strasburg could be overlooked by some, yet he did strike out 16 and allowed only three earned runs in 16 innings against the Dodgers this season, sporting a 2.08 ERA.

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We’ve got a 13-game main slate for 9/24 DFS and while a playoff picture is finally emerging and the season is winding down, there are still some high-upside hitters and stacks to get you prepped to win some green!

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9/24 DFS Hitting Stacks of the Day

Red Sox at Edinson Vólquez/Ariel Jurado

The Red Sox shouldn’t have problems getting to either Vólquez, who’s having a last hurrah in the big leagues before retiring, or Jurado, who has a 5.73 ERA this season and has trouble getting Ks. You may want to skip Betts, who’s been getting rest since coming back from a foot injury, but grab shares of J.D. Martinez, Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts and some of the more inexpensive bats (Mitch Moreland, Brock Holt, Jackie Bradley) that should help you make salary. I think the 2-5 plus Christian Vazquez (the projected 7 hitter) might be my favorite stack among the Red Sox bats.

Houston Astros at Justin Dunn/Tommy Milone

The Astros are always worth looking to considering their 121 team wRC+ and .349 wOBA, but they face a couple mashable pitchers and you don’t have to worry about splits since they rake just about everybody. Get some shares of the red-hot George Springer (three HRs on Sunday) as well as Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yuri Gurriel and Yordan Alvarez. they have the highest implied total among the teams with set lines so far.

TorontoBlue Jays at Dylan Bundy

These teams have been bashing each other’s brains in, and while I prefer the Blue Jays side of this offensive tilt, the entire game stack is in play. It’s been a GPP winner recently, so I have no qualms about rolling out the usual suspects again: Cavan Biggio, Randal Grichuk, Rowdy Tellez, and value bats like Brandon Drury and Teoscar Hernandez – especially if Lourdes Gurriel, Jr. (illness) sits for a second consecutive day.

9/24 DFS Hitting Stacks to Consider 

Chicago Cubs at Mitch Keller – The Cubs are nearly out of the playoff picture thanks to the Cardinals, but for 9/24 DFS you shouldn’t consider them officially dead yet – and they’re a bunch who can still pile on the runs. The Pirates home park isn’t the best venue for stacks, so ownership should be relatively low.

Atlanta Braves at Danny Duffy – Plenty of bats to like for this potent Braves lineup facing the lefty in Kansas City, you’ll just have to leave out a couple since they’re all so good. I may be fading the Yankees in Tampa, but I’m not worried about the Braves against a hittable pitcher in the heartland.

Cleveland Indians vs. Hector Santiago – The Indians aren’t as consistent as the Braves offensively, but they have a bunch of lefty mashers with a special affinity for Santiago. The implied run total is over 5.5, which means you should have shares of the 1-5 bats along with some exposure to Franmil Reyes and Jordan Luplow. I might take a wait-and-see approach with Jose Ramirez, who’s set to be activated from the IL.

Oakland Athletics at Dillon Peters – The A’s aren’t as good against LHPs (.305 team wOBA), but it’s a viable contrarian stack to consider for 9/24 DFS. The implied total is also over 5.5 runs and seems a bit high — so tread lightly with this bunch.

 

9/24 DFS Hitting Catcher  

Christian Vazquez, BOS at TEX

DK ($4,600)   FD($3,200)

Vazquez got a day off yesterday against the Rays, but he should beback in the lineup Tuesday in Texas. He’s got 3 homers in his last seven gamesand his overall numbers in 2019 have been impressive: .273/.316/.472 with 22 HRs.Digging a little deeper, we find a .232 road ISO, with 14 of his dingers comingaway from Fenway Park.

9/24 DFS Hitting First Baseman 

Carlos Santana, CLE at DET

DK (4,900)   FD ($4,000)   

Santana is having a career year, and I’m plugging him into most ofmy GPP builds against Hector Santiago. Hisseason slash sits at .288/.403/.529 with a 139 wRC+ and he’s destroying LHPsthis season (1.015 OPS, 162 wRC+ and .421 wOBA). There are many ways to go at1B on this slate, but Santana is my bet for a monster game.

9/24 DFS Hitting Second Baseman 

Cavan Biggio, TOR at BAL

DK ($4,900)   FD ($3,700) 

Did you expect me to play some other than Biggio? He hit anotherbomb last night and has ben raking every time I use him in GPPs – from lastTuesday’s cycle and Thursday’s home run to helping me spike some decent cashesin last night’s Rally contests on FanDuel. He’s way too cheap on that site andhis price tag on DK should keep him from being chalk – especially with so manyhigh-priced arms.

9/24 DFS Hitting Third Baseman 

Manny Machado, SD vs. LAD (3B/SS on DK)

(DK $3,700)   FD($3,000)

It’s been a disappointing season for Machado, but he’d like to endit with some standout performances against his old team, the Dodgers. I lovethe matchup against LHP Rich Hill since Machado – with some really pronouncedsplits this season – hits .314/.401/.683 against southpaws. The price is rightfor Machado, and using him as a one-off or with OF Hunter Renfroe ($4,000 onDK, $3,100 on FD) – who’s another viable Padres power hitter with a 132 wRC+against LHPs – makes a lot of sense if you’re trying to find some value and buildingmultiple lineups.

9/24 DFS Hitting Shortstop 

Corey Seager, LAD at SD

DK ($4,700)   FD($3,800)

Seger is finally hitting his groove as we near the postseason, andnow is a great time to plug him in at SS in the 9/24 DFS main slate. He’s got a123 wRC+ against RHPs and has a .381 WOBA and .314 ISO sine the start of September.There’s no time like the present, and presently, Corey Seager is raking.

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9/24 DFS Hitting Outfielders 

Cody Bellinger, LOS at SD (1B/OF on DK)

DK ($4,800)   FD($3,200) 

Cody might just ring that bell again on Tuesday night against “BadRonald” Bolanos, who’s given up three homers in 14 innings. Bellinger’s 166wRC+ and ridiculous .314/.414/.641 slash line vs. RHPs means he’ll be in all thelineups I can afford him in, regardless of the venue and the fact he’s on the road(149 wRC+ in away games this season).

Ronald Acuna, Jr., ATL at KC

DK ($5,300)   FD ($4,400)

He makes for a fine one-off if you’re not using the Braves stack, and he’s putting up obscene numbers against both LHPs and RHPs. Another interesting stat about Acuna is that he’s slashing a robust .281/.370/.510 with a 125 wRC+ at home and .279/.361/.527 with a 128 wRC+on the road. There’s not a day that I don’t consider him, even against the league’s top pitchers and regardless of the lofty price tag.

Austin Hays, BAL at TOR
DK ($3,800)   FD ($2,700) 

Hays had a monster night in Toronto on Monday and he’s once again in a good spot facing a lefty. The 24-year-old slugger is slashing .302/.362/.535 in the 15 games he’s played in the majors, and he’s still very inexpensive on both sites. If he’s in the Orioles lineup on Tuesday, I’ll be grabbing shares.

9/24 DFS Additional Stack Options:

C: Wilson Contreras ($4,400 DK, $3,200 FD), Sean Murphy ($4,000DK, $3,100 FD)

1B: Anthony Rizzo ($4,900 DK, $4,100 FD), Trey Mancini ($4,700 DK,$3,900 FD)

2B: Jose Altuve ($4,700 DK, $4,200 FD), DJ LeMahieu ($5,000 DK)($4,200 FD – 3B)

3B: Gio Urshela ($4,100 DK, $3,000 FD) Vladimir Guerrero Jr, ($3,800DK, $3,200 FD)

SS: Francisco Lindor ($5,400 DK, $4,300 FD), Nico Hoerner ($3,700DK, $3,000 FD)

OF: Anthony Santander ($4,000 DK, $3,400 FD), Brett Gardner ($4,500DK, $3,500 FD), Randal Grichuk ($4,100 DK, $3,000 FD), Ramon Laureano GPP($3,100 FD), Austin Riley GPP ($2,200 FD), Adam Duvall GPP ($2,400 FD)

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