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Alvin Kamara

Week 2 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown Preview: Saints at Raiders

Adam Strangis 4 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 2 NFL DFS contests!

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 2 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Chalk: Drew Brees (DK $15,900, FD $16,000)

Pivot: Josh Jacobs (DK $14,400, FD $13,500)

Contrarian #1: Alvin Kamara (DK $17,100, FD $14,000)

Contrarian #2: Emmanuel Sanders (DK $13,200, FD $10,000)

Contrarian #3: Darren Waller (DK $11,100, FD $11,500)

Predicting showdown ownership in NFL and NBA is always tricky, because of the last-minute adjustments that folks tend to make reacting to late-breaking news (I did it just last night in the Lakers game by removing Rajon Rondo from all my showdown lineups in the minutes before lock). But I have a feeling folks will be starting a lot of lineups with Drew Brees up top and filling the rest in with affordable options. It’s certainly a viable strategy this week given the softer pricing and absence of Michael Thomas (ankle), who’s already been ruled out.

I will likely be using Josh Jacobs at MVP in my builds, however, since he has the most guaranteed touches and what I feel is the most upside in this game as a true workhorse back. It’s not a contrarian play, but it’s a way to differentiate your lineups (especially on FanDuel) and get some built-in variance in a format that requires it.

This is a game the Raiders can win, especially if they dominate time of possession, and we don’t often see the Saints without their top WR and the threat of his 5-15 catches per game. If we start with Jacobs (rather than Brees or Alvin Kamara), it’s a lot easier to fit the main offensive cogs from both teams.

Kamara, Emmanuel Sanders and Darren Waller are also MVP options, but the odds are against them dominating the game enough to warrant more than some one-off builds.

Week 2 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Use Drew Brees as your MVP with no Saints position players and the Raiders DST.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Use players with almost no shot of seeing the field, regardless of their salary – though we can make the case for including more Saints positional punts given the injury to Thomas.

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

Josh Jacobs
Drew Brees
Alvin Kamara
Emmanuel Sanders
Darren Waller
Derek Carr
Jared Cook
Tre’Quan Smith
Bryan Edwards
Will Lutz
Latavius Murray
Henry Ruggs (questionable, knee)
Saints DST
Hunter Renfrow
Daniel Carlson
Taysom Hill
Raiders DST
Nelson Agholor
Deonte Harris
DeVontae Booker

4 years ago 0 comment

Week 14 DFS RB Picks: Cash, GPP and Value Targets

Edwin Porras 4 years ago

written by Edwin Porras

We’ve got your NFL Week 14 DFSplays – the best RBs to use in the main slate, as well as some contrarian picksto win you some major green in huge GPPs!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expertchats and more!

Week 14 DFS RunningBack – Cash Game Plays

Christian McCaffrey, CAR at ATL

DK ($10,300) FD ($11,000)

McCaffrey is coming off his lowest-scoring performance since Week 2, and only the second game since then that he didn’t score a TD. But CMC should have plenty of opportunities to remedy when he visits the Falcons in Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday. Treat last week as an anomaly and take advantage of the $200 price drop on DK!

Dalvin Cook, MIN vs. DET

DK ($9,500) FD ($8,700)

Cook normally doesn’thave the upside of CMC, but he’s in a great spot versus the Lions, who rank amongthe worst three defenses in the league against RBs. Cook left the Week 13 lossto the Seahawks on Monday night a little early after injuring his chest, but he’snot on the injury report and there’s no indication he’ll be limited Sunday. He’sgot a 10-point floor and 30-point upside and offers a somewhat cheaper optionthan the top dog.

Derrick Henry, TEN at OAK

DK ($8,200) FD ($8,600)

Henryhas been a godsend for DFS players over the past few weeks, and he’s seeking anotherproductive performance against a Raiders defense that’s yielded 134.8 yardsfrom scrimmage per game and 13 touchdowns to running backs so far this season.

Also consider:Devonta Freeman (value cash play)

Week 14 DFS RunningBack – GPP Plays

Aaron Jones, GB vs. WAS

DK ($6,700) FD ($7,800)

Jones dealt with some ankle pain last week but this home matchup againstthe Redskins is about as favorable as you can get. The Packers have an impliedtotal over 27 points, and while we should still see Jamaal Williams (knee) getsome work, both backs offer upside in this smash spot.

Leonard Fournette, JAC vs.LAC

DK ($7,400) FD ($7,500)

Fournette is a lock for 20+ touches this week at home against the Chargers, and he’s seen 23 targets over the past two weeks operating as a workhorse back in all aspects on the Jags offense. His floor remains round 10-12 points and he’s got a 30-point upside.

Nick Chubb,CLE vs. CIN

DK ($8,000) FD ($7,900)

Chubb isn’t cheap, but I could see him matching his production fromthe Miami game a couple of weeks ago, when he rolled for 106 yards and a TD,adding 3-58-0 receiving. The additional of Kareem Hunt has hurt his week-to-weekconsistency, but Chubb is in a positive game script here and the Bengals cannotstop him.

Also consider: Joe Mixon, JamesWhite

Week 14 DFS RunningBack – Contrarian GPP Plays

Alvin Kamara, NO vs. SF

DK ($7,000) FD ($7,600)

Kamara has a tough matchup vs. the 49ers on Sunday, but the game is in New Orleans on the turf and this could be a higher-scoring game than the 44.5 game total. The Saints have a 23.5 implied total, and a lot of that should be the fruits of Kamara’s and Michael Thomas’ labor. A contrarian GPP plays for those of you who think the Saints could hand the 49ers their third loss in Week 14.

Austin Ekeler, LAC at DEN

DK ($6,300) FD ($7,000)

Even with Melvin Gordon getting regular carries, Ekeler has scoredfour receiving TDs over his last six games. He’s got plenty of big plays in himdue to his speed and elusiveness, and I’m committed to using him in GPPs as acontrarian play once again in Week 14.

Also consider: Todd Gurley,Devin Singletary, Mark Ingram

Week 14 DFS RunningBack – Value/Punt Plays

LeSean McCoy, KC at NE

DK ($4,400) FD ($6,100)

McCoy will get the start on Sunday against the Patriots and while it’s not a great matchup, he should see enough involvement to pay off his dirt-cheap price at $4,400 on DK. I’m less interested in FanDuel, where he’s over $6K.

Alexander Mattison, MIN vs.DET

DK ($4,500) FD ($5,100)

It’s not often you can recommend two RBs in the same offense, but theLions defense has been so bad vs. RBS that it could be warranted. Mattison’s presencelimits Cook’s GPP upside a little bit, and we could easily see 10-15 touchesfor the backup RB in a positive game script at home this week.

Additional plays: Phillip Lindsay, Melvin Gordon, Bilal Powell (if Bell out), Darwin Thompson

Monkey Knife Fight Quarterback Pick of the Day

Click Here to Play and Get 100 Percent Bonus!

Goal: 67.5, Prize: 3x

Christian McCaffrey, Devonta Freeman and D.J. Moore are in great spots to bust out for huge fantasy days this week (especially with Greg Olsen out for Carolina), so go big or go home with this 3x bet!

4 years ago 0 comment

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports

Week 12 DFS RB Picks: Cash, GPP and Value Targets

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’ve got your NFL Week 12 DFS plays – the best RBs to use in the main slate, as well as some contrarian picks to win you some major green in huge GPPs!

Sign up NOWfor WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chatsand more!

Week 12 DFS Running Back – Cash Game Plays

ChristianMcCaffrey, CAR at NO

DK ($10,500) FD ($10,500)

With at least 23 DK points in four straight games and averaging a massive 32.4 DK PPG, CMC is again top dog in all formats. I’m not going to bore you anymore with his resume at this point, and while the matchup is difficult compared to others he’s faced, it doesn’t freak me out enough to avoid him. Just lock the guy in and move on.

Nick Chubb, CLE vs. MIA

DK ($8,100) FD ($8,200)

If you can’t fit in McCaffrey in your cash lineups, thenshame on you. No, really, Chubb has some competition for touches now, but he’sanother back facing a poor opponent who could clean up this week and make his fantasyowners very happy. He’s hasn’t scored since Week 6, so he’s due.

Week 12 DFS Running Back – GPP Plays

Alvin Kamara, NO vs. CAR

DK ($8,200) FD ($8,300)

We nailed Kamara last week, and he was under 10 percent owned in large-field GPPs (9.58% in the DK Millionaire Maker). I’m smitten with how Kamara fits into the Saints offense and can break off enormous plays as opponents get distracted by the plodding style of Latavius Murray, the pass-catching ability of Michael Thomas and the multiple speed options (Ted Ginn, Taysom Hill) who complement Kamara’s soaring talent. He’s probably cash viable but is best deployed in GPPs.

Josh Jacobs, OAK at NYJ

DK ($7,400) FD ($8,000)

Jacobs is again nursing the same shoulder injury, but he’sa GPP darling this season, getting lots of work in all aspects of the Raiders’offense. Last week an underwhelming fantasy total, but he’s a better bet toreach paydirt in Week 12 and score 15-25 DK points.

Derrick Henry, TEN vs. JAC

DK ($6,900) FD ($8,400)

The Titans would like to win this division rivalry without throwing the ball a lot, as they grabbed a win over the Chiefs last week with Ryan Tannehill attempting fewer than 20 passes. Henry has a massive upside in this matchup and is one of the strongest runners in the game.

Leonard Fournette, JAC at TEN

DK ($7,300) FD ($7,000)

The other side of the Titans-Jags game features Fournette, who last week was a bit of a disappointment. For Week 12, Fournette’s price is down on both sites and he’s almost a bargain on FD. He’s not a high-profile name and he could go under-owned in GPPs after drawing just 4-5 percent ownership last week.

Joe Mixon, CIN vs. PIT

DK ($5,900) FD ($6,700)

The Bengals are bad, but Mixon has 200 rushing yards and 45 carries over his last two games. He’s the focal point of this offense and the Steelers are a team in turmoil, so I’ll be locking this bell-cow into about 20-25 percent of my GPPs and hopefully staying ahead of the field.

Also consider: Le’Veon Bell, Jaylen Samuels, James White, David Montgomery

Week 12 DFS Running Back – Contrarian GPP Plays

Ezekiel Elliot, DAL at NE

DK ($7,500) FD ($8,100)

This could get interesting. Ezekiel’s ownership was at 14.06% in the Millionaire Maker last week, and he reached 20 DK points, but this week against a much tougher opponent (the Patriots allow the fewest points to fantasy RBs), that ownership level should plummet, even though he still has plenty of upsides and the price has come way down. He could be a sneaky play in GPPs.

Devin Singletary, BUF vs. DEN

DK ($5,400) FD ($6,300)

The Bills’continued reliance on Frank Gore (11 rushing attempts last game) keepsSingletary from getting the 20 attempts he’ll likely need to break through intoGPP stardom, but the Broncos are average against the run and Singletary is atalented back with upside – and probably some relatively low ownership this week.

Also consider: Saquon Barkley, Chris Carson, Phillip Lindsay

Week 12 DFS Running Back – Value/Punt Plays

Miles Sanders, PHI vs. SEA

DK ($5,000) FD ($5,600)

Sanders is a talented back and Jordan Howard hasn’t yet beencleared for contact. With the rookie getting the bulk of work out of the Phillybackfield and having such enormous upside based on his speed and shiftiness, I’lltake the chance against the Seahawks in some GPPs.

Sony Michel, NE vs. DAL

DK ($4,900) FD ($6,300)

Michel is still just too cheap on DK and had 10 carries and four targets last week. I expect the Patriots to use him a little more this week against the Cowboys – who are more susceptible to straight-line power runners – making him a fine value play in Week 12.

Tarik Cohen, CHI vs. NYG

DK ($4,800) FD ($5,700)

Cohen saw an uptick in usage last week and could get more workin Week 12. He’s scored receiving TDs in two straight and could make it a thirdagainst this dubious Giants defensive unit.

Derrius Guice, WAS vs. DET

DK ($4,700) FD ($5,400)

Guice has an excellent matchup and big-play upside, so he’son my list for Week 12 GPP value plays. This team is still committed to giving AdrianPeterson touches, but Guice is cheaper and probably the better back.

Kalen Ballage, MIA at CLE

DK ($4,400) FD ($5,500)

Ballage remains cheap, but his upside is limited,especially against an improving Browns defensive unit. But with Mark Waltondone with football for the foreseeable future, the volume could mean viability onDK.

Additional plays: Ronald Jones, J.D. McKissic, Latavius Murray

Monkey Knife Fight Picks of the Week

Goal: 78.5, Prize: 3x

Christian McCaffrey, Michael Thomas, and Alvin Kamara are my picks (two RBs and a WR) for notching the most fantasy points in this Week 12 matchup. Let’s go big for 3x since they all catch passes, they can all score multiple TDs and go over 150 total yards and offer monster upside.

4 years ago 0 comment

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports

Week 11 DFS RB Picks: Cash, GPP and Value Targets

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’ve got your NFL Week 11 DFS plays – the best RB picks for the main slate, including cash, GPP and some contrarian recommendations to win you some green!

Sign up NOWfor WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chatsand more!

Week 11 DFS Running Back – Cash Game Plays

ChristianMcCaffrey, CAR at GB

DK ($10,500) FD ($10,500)

Cash or GPP, CMC is King, and the price remains unchanged from last week. He gets days off during the week for maintenance, but by Thursday he’s practicing fully so he can smash on Sunday. I don’t need to justify this anymore, do I? He’s the safest play and has the most upside, so use the guy – just find a way to get him in your lineups.

Dalvin Cook, MIN vs. DEN

DK ($8,900) FD ($8,600)

Cook gets over 20 carries per game and is just a notch below McCaffrey in terms of floor and upside – but still worth of clicking into your cash game lineups and GPPs. Find your value plays at WR, TE and flex this week and just lock both guys in. The Denver defense doesn’t play nearly as well on the road and they’ve been surprisingly mediocre against the run this season – so stopping Cook will be a challenge.

Week 11 DFS Running Back – GPP Plays

Ezekiel Elliot, DAL at DET

DK ($8,900) FD($8,400)

It’s s great matchup and the Cowboys clearly want to run theball more – so this could easily end up being Zeke’s best game of 2019 so far.He has 35-40 point upside on DK and the Lions defense gives up the most fantasypoints in the league to opposing RBs.

Alvin Kamara, NO at TB

DK ($7,400) FD ($7,800)

Since Kamara isn’t a prototypical rusher, I’m totally coolwith rolling him out against the league’s toughest run defense, especiallysince it’s also the league’s worst pass defense! Kamara had a rough go of itlast time around and that should keep the masses from clicking his name inGPPs. I’m going right back to the well – because he’ll be instrumental in the Saintsshredding of the Bucs, and that price has come down to a very reasonable place.

Josh Jacobs, OAK vs. CIN

DK ($6,900) FD ($8,000)

Jacobs has been playing through a shoulder injury and it’s worth monitoring his status on Sunday, but the guy is a workhorse for Oakland and a huge part of their success this season. His combined targets and carries each game have fallen below 19 only once since Week 4, and the Q tag could keep folks off him in GPPs – even against a pitiful Bengals defense. Win Daily Sports expert David Jones noted in his GPP Picks of Destiny that Jacobs he has gone over 100 yards in three of his last five games with five touchdowns in that span, and I firmly agree with his assessment of Jacobs as a mid-range GPP option.

Mark Ingram, BAL vs. HOU

DK ($6,600) FD ($7,500)

The Ravens can beat you many ways, but Ingram still makessense as a high-upside GPP play with some amount of risk – but not enough to keepyou from cashing if he has a ho-hum game. He’s not my favorite RB option thisweek and the number of touches he gets per game is a little low for my liking, buthe’s someone to consider as a pivot if Jacobs’ shoulder keeps him from playing.

Devin Singletary, BUF at MIA

DK ($6,000) FD ($6,500)

The rookie RB was a disappointment last week but has a favorablematchup in Week 11. He’s one of the best GPP plays on the slate given hisupside, talent and the recency bias of the letdown to DFS owners in Week 10.

Also consider: Le’Veon Bell (illness), Phillip Lindsay

Week 11 DFS Running Back – Contrarian GPP Plays

Leomard Fournette, JAC at IND

DK ($7,900) FD ($7,200)

Priceand matchup will keep Fournette from being heavily owned this week, but he’s ina sneaky spot if the Jags decide to limit the number of throws that Nick Foles makesin his first game back. It’s not a heavy exposure opportunity, but mixingFournette into a few low-stakes, large-field multi-entry GPPs shouldn’t be abad decision.

Tevin Coleman, SF vs. ARI

DK ($6,100) FD ($6,700)

Coleman ducked out of practice due to a personal matter on Thursday, so he may not make the initial builds of the GPP masses heading into the weekend. It’s hard to speculate at this point if he’ll be available or if his head will be in the game, but there’s no injury to speak of and both Matt Breida (ankle, doubtful) and Raheem Mostert (knee) are dealing with some issues. Stay tuned and don’t rule him out of DFS viability in this favorable matchup just yet.

Also consider: Marlon Mack, Joe Mixon

Week 11 DFS Running Back – Value/Punt Plays

Sony Michel, NE at PHI

DK ($4,900) FD ($6,300)

Michel is just too cheap on DK and despite coming off hisseason-low of four carries in Week 9, I expect the Patriots to go back to whatworks following their bye week – which means 15-20 carries for Michel and multi-TDupside. He’s a fine play in Week 11.

Brian Hill, ATL at CAR

DK ($4,800) FD ($5,900)

Hill is the only show in town for Atlanta in Week 11 and the matchup is a decent one on paper. I worry about a letdown after his big week, as the Falcons could easily fall behind and abandon the running game, peppering both Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley with targets, but the absence of Austin Hooper has to help Hill’s usage as a receiving option on dump-offs. Tenacious D even says in his GPP column that “Hill is going to step in for the injured Devonte Freeman and get around 20 touches and a couple targets through the air” and I’m with him that the 24-year-old back stands a good shot of finding paydirt.

J.D. McKissic, DET vs. DAL

DK ($4,600) FD ($5,800)

He’s probably too expensive on FD because of his reliance on the passing game and the Dallas run defense, which looked decent up until they encountered Dalvin Cook in Week 10. He’s got opportunity and game script on his side, and he could get a few more targets (season-high seven last week) with Matthew Stafford ruled out again and Jeff Driskel set to fill in at QB.

Kalen Ballage, MIA vs. BUF

DK ($4,300) FD ($5,300)

Ballage is still cheap and getting lots of usage but arelatively quiet game in Week 10 (20 carries for 43 yards, 4-2-0 on four targetsreceiving), but head coach Brian Flores said Wednesday that the Dolphins willcontinue to lean heavily on him as their lead option out of the backfield. Thebills defense hasn’t been great recently and Ballage is a near lock for 15-20touches.

Additional plays: Miles Sanders, Ty Montgomery (only if Bell is OUT)

Monkey Knife Fight Picks of the Week

Pick the Players that will get the most Fantasy Points

Goal: 68.5, Prize: 3x

Lets go with Christian McCaffrey, Brian Hill and D.J. Moore, who could all go for 20+ Fantasy Points, with McCaffrey a regular threat to eclipse 40. At that rate, I am comfortable locking in the 2x bet all day and going for a little more at 3x considering the upside here. I wanted to include two RBs because its an article about that, so if you are skittish about Hill you can always use Julio Jones.

4 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL

Week 10 DFS RB Picks: Cash, GPP and Value Targets

Richard Masana 4 years ago

written by Richard Masana

We’ve got your NFL Week 10 DFS plays – the best RB picks for the main slate, including cash, GPP and some contrarian recommendations to win you some green!

Sign up NOWfor WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chatsand more!

Week 10 DFS Running Back – Cash Game Plays

ChristianMcCaffrey, CAR atGB

DK ($10,500) FD ($10,500)

The Panthers have been limiting McCaffrey’s practiceworkload, but the stud RB’s Week 10 status is not in doubt following a coupleof maintenance days. Fantasy’s No. 1 running back in every aspect, he has a favorablematchup facing a Packers defense that’s been a sieve to running back production.Lock this man in for your cash games and any other formats you see fit.

Saquon Barkley, NYG at NYJ

DK ($8,800) FD ($8,600)

Barkley gets a great matchup vs. the Jets (who allow 18-20fantasy points to RBs, on average) and remains the consensus No. 1 or 2 fantasyRB heading into Week 10. He’s involved in the entire offense and sees upwardsof 8-10 targets each week – making him a lock for double-digit production evenwithout the running game clicking.

Derrick Henry, TEN vs. KC

DK ($6,400) FD ($7,000)

If you’re averse to spending top dollar at both RB spots incash, Henry offers a considerable discount from the aforementioned backs andhas nearly as much upside against a Chiefs defense that’s among the worst inthe NFL at defending RBs.

Week 10 DFS Running Back – GPP Plays

Alvin Kamara, NO vs. ATL

DK ($8,200) FD ($8,300)

Saints head coach Sean Payton had already noted that Kamara would return following his two-game absence, but on Thursday the electric RB practiced in full, putting him higher on my list of GPP plays for Week 10. Latavius Murray will still get work and his excellent performance in Kamara’s stead, and has earned a touch more standalone work, but Kamara is a special player who can take over a game and should eviscerate the Falcons defense. He won’t see the ownership of Barkley or McCaffrey, making him a better tournament play in Saints stacks with Drew Brees and Michael Thomas.

Mark Ingram, BAL at CIN

DK ($7,100) FD ($8,000)

Ingram is one of many options for the Ravens who could blowup in this game, so I’m not too high on him for cash games, but he makes an excellentGPP play because of the opponent (theBengals rank around the third-worst in terms of passing and running defenseDVOA), and his ability to run for over 100 yards. I won’t be at fullexposure, but I should be ahead of the field.

David Montgomery, CHI vs. DET

DK ($5,300) FD ($6,400)

Montgomery is finally having the type of production we expectedhim to earlier in the season, in part because Matt Nagy is using him properly. Montgomery has seen 48 touches over the last two gamesand has now totaled 16 or more touches in five of the last seven games. That workhorserole means his favorable matchup with the Lions means he’s a lock for top 10-15fantasy production, with Top 5 upside. He’s part of my core plays at RB in GPPs,even though he might get chalky.

Marlon Mack, IND vs. MIA

DK ($7,000) FD ($7,400)

Mack makes for a great GPP ply against a poor opponent thisweek, and we could expect maybe a little lower ownership because of the high price.Without the cake matchup, he wouldn’t have nearly as much upside as the playershe’s priced alongside, but the Dolphins yield the most points to fantasy RBsand the Colts should be more ground-focused if it’s Brian Hoyer under center.

Also consider: DeVonta Freeman, Jaylen Samuels, Jamaal Williams, Damien Williams

Week 10 DFS Running Back – Contrarian GPP Plays

Le’Veon Bell, NYJ vs. NYG

DK ($6,900) FD ($6,900)

TheGiants run defense is getting better, but they still have major issues. TheJets do too, but I think we’re in the clear with Bell moving forward, as the tradedeadline has come and gone and he’s the best man for the job despite his 3.3YPC this season. He had a brief injury scare at the beginning of the week, butthe MRI revealed nothing significant and he’s supposed to go on Sunday. Staytuned, but consider him as a contrarian play with plenty of upside on bothsites.

David Johnson, ARI at TB

DK ($5,700) FD ($6,800)

Johnson presents as a very high risk, moderate-to-high rewardand I can’t imagine he’ll be on everybody’s list of top plays, so most will beunderweight on him. So if you’re trying to take down a large-field GPP, he’s wortha look as a low-owned option with plenty of upside. The Bucs have the NFL’stop-ranked run defense, but the Cards spread the field and run the football, soexpect some plays drawn up for Johnson to get some easy completions from KylerMurray and rack up the points. A much safer play on DK because of the full-PPRand nicer price.

Nick Chubb, CLE vs. BUF

DK ($7,000) FD ($8,100)

After a relatively disappointing week at Denver, Chubb could be off the radar for most owners, especially with Kareem Hunt finally available as a change of pace back. He has a tough matchup, but after seeing him rush for 131 yards on 20 carries against the Patriots, I think his results depend more on game flow, big plays and goal line opportunities. The Bills defense hasn’t been wonderful the past couple of weeks and has shown itself to be more vulnerable against the run. If the Browns don’t get behind by multiple TDs, we could see heavy doses of Chubb and enough production to warrant his usage in some GPPs.

Also consider: Todd Gurley, Joe Mixon, Ty Johnson

Week 10 DFS Running Back – Value/Punt Plays

Devin Singletary, BUF at CLE

DK ($5,000) FD ($6,700)

The rookie RB is coming into his own, with scores inconsecutive weeks and a season-high 20 carries vs. Washington in Week 9. He’sone of the best value plays of the slate and makes sense as a flex play in cashgames and one of your core plays in GPPs.

J.D. McKissic, DET

DK ($4,300) FD ($5,600)

He’s an option because he outperformed Ty Johnson last weekand could be seeing a larger workload against the Bears. There’s plenty of riskin this matchup, but McKissic gained 32 yards on just four carries in Week 9and should have the requisite opportunities to make an impact as a pass-catcher.

Kalen Ballage, MIA at IND

DK ($3,800) FD ($4,600)

With Miami’s Bad Boy (teammate Mark Walton) slated to servea four-game suspension, the enigmatic and dynamic Ballage figures to see anexpanded role in Dolphins offense. It’s a team – as a whole – that doesn’talways allow for the most favorable game flows and a commitment to the running game,but Ballage is cheap and has given us monster games before. He’s in a spot todominate the touches in the backfield in Week 10.

Additional plays: Giovani Bernard, Kareem Hunt

Monkey Knife Fight Picks of the Week

Pick the Players what will get the most Fantasy Points

Goal: 54.5, Prize: 2x

Saquon Barkley, Le’Veon Bell and Golden Tate

Going with the RB theme, we can start both RBs in the Giants-Jets game, as both should have plenty of opportunities ion both the running and passing game on Sunday. Pairing them with PPR maven WR Golden Tate could help you get 2x or more on your bet.

4 years ago 0 comment

NFL

DFS: Injury Breakdown- Fade or Play?

Edwin Porras 4 years ago

written by Edwin Porras

This week in the DFS Injury Breakdown, I’ll give you a few injuries to monitor with me and whether these players are a fade or a play in DFS. There are several ambiguous and non-specific injuries that could play a role in certain players’ production, so let’s get started. Note that all of the player prices below are based on FanDuel.

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Evan Engram ($6,400)

Engram is dealing with a somewhat mysterious foot injury that he picked up on Monday night against the Cowboys. He had an MRI this week that is now being sent to Dr. Robert Anderson for a second opinion, which means he did not like the first opinion he received from the team’s staff. His injury is worth mentioning here because if he can’t go against the Jets, Rhett Ellison ($2,500) immediately becomes a free square in cash games on Sunday. Even if Engram is active (which I don’t expect as of now), Ellison might still be tournament play.

Le’Veon Bell ($6,900)

Bell is another player dealing with a mystery injury, this time to his knee. He underwent an MRI on Monday (as the Jets strangely hand these out as “precautionary”) but as of today, nothing remarkable has been reported. Bell, who has a history of knee instability issues is at risk for, at the very least, a reduced workload on Sunday following his best fantasy performance since Week Two. He’s a cash game fade for me as of Wednesday, and if he’s out, I would consider using Bilal Powell ($4,500) in tournaments as he has now taken over as the second running back in that backfield (Ty Montgomery has not touched the ball in two consecutive games).

Alvin Kamara ($8,300)

Kamara is a smash play in cash games despite the fact that he has not played since Week Six as he was dealing with a high ankle sprain and an MCL sprain. Since then, he has had plenty of time to get healthy and should be active on Sunday. This mouthwatering matchup against the Falcons is just what the doctor ordered for DFS players. Use Kamara confidently from an injury perspective.

James Conner ($7,100)

Conner isn’t likely to be active this week as I read in between the lines of this AC sprain. I’ve said since the injury occurred in the closing minutes of Week Eight that Conner could miss up to four weeks. That makes Jaylen Samuels another automatic play this week due to sheer volume. Last week Samuels had 13, count them, thirteen, targets and caught them all. If Conner is inactive, expect that type of production again from Samuels as the Rams are not shy about scoring points.

Jacoby Brissett ($7,600)

Brissett was very fortunate to exit Week Nine with a minor MCL sprain and his ACL intact. The shot that he took to his left knee was actually friendly fire as his own offensive linemen rolled up on him. You can watch the injury (with my prediction) on Twitter. Overall, Brissett has a 50/50 shot to play on Sunday. MCL sprains are extremely painful and other than light exercise, there’s not much players can do to help stabilize the knee as braces aren’t truly effective. Check back with me to see if you should play Brian Hoyer ($7,100) against the no-longer-in-last-place Miami Dolphins.

Thank you for reading the DFS Injury Breakdown. I hope I was able to provide some midweek injury context to help make those play or fade decisions. Check back with me for more updates as practice reports roll in!

THANK YOU FOR READING. YOU CAN READ SOME OF MY OTHER WORK AND THOUGHTS ON MY AUTHOR PAGE. FOLLOW Win Daily DFS ON TWITTER @WinDailyDFS. PLEASE CHECK OUT EVERYTHING THAT Win Daily DFS HAS TO OFFER. NEW ARTICLES, STATISTICS AND DATA ARE BEING ADDED CONSTANTLY. ALSO, DO NOT FORGET TO LISTEN TO THE WIN DAILY PODCASTS HERE.

Featured image courtesy of LaDanian1000000.

4 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports

DFS: Week Eight Injury Analysis

Edwin Porras 5 years ago

written by Edwin Porras

Week Eight is almost upon us. which is definitely reflected in the long list of player injuries to break down in the DFS Week Eight Injury Analysis. There won’t be much time for messing around on this one, so I’ll get right to it.

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Drew Brees

As I mentioned earlier in the week Brees’ thumb surgery was a mere five weeks ago, and he just initiated practice on Wednesday. These practices were limited in nature and of course the team remains on the fence in terms of his chances of playing. Although there’s definitely a chance Brees plays tomorrow, I’m not entirely convinced they bring him back with a 6-1 record as a favorite over the Cardinals with a bye on the horizon in Week Nine. Lastly, this was a contact injury that theoretically could be re-injured if brought back too soon. I would be surprised if Brees is active.

Alvin Kamara

Kamara is dealing with a couple of different injuries of his knee and ankle. It is reportedly a high ankle sprain, which on its own can take some time to heal. Despite his limited practices this week I’m using similar logic to Brees’ status when it comes to Kamara: Given the overall state of the team and a bye in Week Nine, why risk playing him at all? Even if he’s active, with a $7,600 price tag on DraftKings, I’m staying away as he’ll likely be limited in either work or physical capacity.

Keenan Allen

Allen popped up Wednesday on the injury report with a hamstring strain and has not practiced since then. The Chargers have said that he is a game time decision but also said he would be limited in snaps if active. With the knowledge that hamstring strains can limit players for one to three games and the suggestion that he could be on a snap count (if active at all) does not give me confidence to play Allen at $6,400 on DraftKings.

Matt Ryan

Ryan returned to practice in a limited capacity on Friday following a pretty gruesome ankle injury last Sunday. It seems the quarterback avoided catastrophe as the dreaded grade II high ankle sprain would have held him out indefinitely. Considering that Ryan isn’t exactly Michael Vick in the pocket, I would still expect him to put up respectable passing numbers but would only use him in tournaments if active.

David Johnson

There is one thing that is clear about the Arizona Cardinals and that is their penchant for keeping player injuries mainly under wraps. They demonstrated those characteristics in their handling of David Johnson over the last two weeks and with his teammate, Christian Kirk, one month ago. Ultimately, D.J. did not practice all week and the Cardinals made two depth signings at running back to boot. I don’t expect Johnson to be active, but even if he is, can you trust him against the stout Saints defense with an ankle injury?

Christian Kirk

Week Eight marks the first shot that Kirk has at playing following his high ankle injury from Week Four. However, he continued to be limited in practice, which is a bit concerning given the time frame. Additionally, the game-time decision did not end with him being activated in Week Seven. Overall, if Kirk is active, I want to see him perform before using him in cash games. I might consider him in a few tournament plays though at only $4,700 in a game the Cardinals are expected to be down in.

Davante Adams

Unfortunately the DFS Week Eight Injury Analysis does not include much optimism regarding Adams’ status. I think we’re still a week away on Adams, but he definitely has a chance to return as Sunday marks 31 days since the turf toe injury. Typically grade II sprains last from four to six weeks. Check back with me to be certain.

Josh Jacobs

I expect Jacobs to be active as the primary limiting factor in shoulder injuries (that are not unstable) for a running back is pain. And whether we agree with the practice reports or not, the Raiders are likely to “shoot him up” prior to their game on Sunday if it is still bothering him.

Tyrell Williams

Williams will make his long awaited return as the Raiders’ number one receiver against a depleted Texans secondary. Additionally, Williams has no competition for targets (aside from Darren Waller) in a game they are expected to lose. I don’t mind Williams as a tournament play this week.

Thanks again for reading the DFS Week Eight Injury Analysis Report. Make sure to check back with me Sunday for my final thoughts before locking in those lineups!

Image courtesy of Keith Allison

5 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports

DFS: Final Injury Report

Edwin Porras 5 years ago

written by Edwin Porras

It’s Week Six (hard to believe) and today marks the return of Tyreek Hill. Today will also bring tough decisions on players such as David Johnson and George Kittle. Should you be concerned about these injuries? Read the DFS Final Injury report to find out.

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Tyreek Hill

I’m green-lighting Hill this week with a good amount of confidence. Hill is coming back after a five week absence due to a posterior dislocation of his sternoclavicular joint. This type of injury differs from a soft tissue strain or a bruise in that once out of the “protection” stage, it’s pretty much all systems go. This was somewhat of a freak accident, and although he’s relatively prone to re-dislocation, he’s active today which means the Chiefs’ medical staff is confident in his ability to safely take a big hit. He might not see the immediate rebound in volume, but a decrease in volume will likely come at the expense of fly sweeps and bubble passes towards the sidelines and not fly routes. Luckily, “cheetah” just needs one or two big plays to pay off massively. Don’t be afraid to fire him up in tournaments this week with an eye towards cash games next week after re-solidifying his role in the offense.

Alvin Kamara

Kamara is a yellow light for me this week overall. Kamara will be active for Week Six after popping up on the injury report in the middle of the week with an ankle injury. This is more than likely a run-of-the-mill lateral ankle sprain and shouldn’t be taken too seriously. However given the fact that Latavius Murray is always a fine option for the Saints, I’m not using Kamara in cash. These ankle injuries can linger it would not be a giant surprise for Kamara to see a lightened workload. For this reason I’m not paying for any piece of the Saints’ backfield this week.

George Kittle

I’m red-lighting Kittle for my lineups this week. Kittle was a limited participant in practice on Friday due to a groin injury. These injuries are scary for skill players and can cause extended missed time is aggravated (i.e. DeSean Jackson). Because we do not know the exact severity of this groin injury, there is no reason to pay up for Kittle this week as a safe DFS player. Other options like Austin Hooper are in play today.

David Johnson

Here’s another red-light player for me on the Final Injury Report. D.J. has been limited all week by a back injury and did not get in a limited practice until Friday. This is another injury that is a bit mysterious as it could be effecting his muscles, discs, or ligaments. Due to the lack of information on Johnson’s injury and his limited practice participation, I’m very hesitant to use him at all this week. After the showing Chase Edmonds had in Week Five, even if Johnson is active, he might not pay off his price tags in terms of volume.

That will do it for the DFS Final Injury Report. Make sure to find me on Twitter here with specific injury questions. Good luck this week!

THANK YOU FOR READING. YOU CAN READ SOME OF MY OTHER WORK AND THOUGHTS ON MY AUTHOR PAGE. FOLLOW Win Daily DFS ON TWITTER @WinDailyDFS. PLEASE CHECK OUT EVERYTHING THAT Win Daily DFS HAS TO OFFER. NEW ARTICLES, STATISTICS AND DATA ARE BEING ADDED CONSTANTLY. ALSO, DO NOT FORGET TO LISTEN TO THE WIN DAILY PODCASTS HERE.

Image courtesy of Chipermc.

5 years ago 0 comment

NFL Premium

Winner’s Circle: Week 6 NFL DFS Round Table Discussion

5 years ago

written by

Our Team of DFS Pros have a open discussion on building their FanDuel lineups for Week 6 NFL DFS. Get into the minds of DFS Pros Jason Mezrahi, David Jones, and Javier Prellezo. 1) Who is you top play on this slate at each position?Jason MezrahiQB- Deshaun WatsonRB- Malcolm BrownWR- DeAndre HopkinsT...

5 years ago 0 comment

NFL

NFL DFS: Week Five Running Back Breakdown

Allan Fabrykant 5 years ago

written by Allan Fabrykant

This report will provide NFL DFS running back options for the Week Five 12-game main slate. Running backs will be broken down into three tiers, high, mid, and low. I will also include punt plays.

High Tier

NFL DFS Running Back: Christian McCaffrey (CAR) ($9100 FD|$8700 DK)

The King keeps the top spot for RB’s once again at no surprise. Christian McCaffrey is leading the league in rush yards (411) and third best in the passing game (218). The Jaguars are allowing just under 100 rushing yards per game and have been extremely efficient defensively in the red zone. They are allowing opponents to score at a 46% clip which is top 10 in the league. Despite the Jags success on defense they still allow over four yards per carry and they haven’t faced a supreme talent like CMC this season. The Panthers will continue to rely heavily on their All-Pro running back.

NFL DFS Running Back: Dalvin Cook (MIN) ($8200 FD|$8400 DK)

Dalvin Cook struggled last week against a top defensive unit which can be attributed to the offenses inability to push the ball down field through the air. The Vikings get a far better matchup here against a Giants defense that has allowed an average of 110 yards per game on the ground. Once the Vikings are in the red zone they are scoring at a 70% clip. Dalvin Cook isn’t far behind CMC, he has rushed for 410 yards and 127 receiving yards. Cook should come in at high ownership in Week Five.

NFL DFS Running Back: Austin Ekeler (LAC) ($7200 FD|$6700 DK)

Melvin Gordon is back in the picture for the Chargers but it seems HC Anthony Lynn is in no rush to hand a big workload over to him for now. I can’t say I blame him, Austin Ekeler leads the league in receiving yards for all RB’s (270) and touchdowns (6). The Broncos have been terrible against the run. They allow the fourth most fantasy points to RB’s per game (29) and rank 30th in terms of yards per game (149). I won’t be overweight here just due to the situation but Ekeler is still a top fantasy option in Week Five.

NFL DFS Running Back: Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) ($8800 FD|$8300 DK)

Zeke Elliott is back on the main slate this week and should be a big part of the Cowboys game plan. After a nice start to the season, the Packers defense has fallen back to reality. They are allowing over 140 rushing yards on the ground but have been very efficient defending the pass. Dallas offensive line of course ranks in the top five in league, they are allowing their RB’s to average over 4.60 yards per carry. Elliott is currently averaging 16 FPTS per game but i expect his best performance yet in Week Five.

Honorable Mention: Alvin Kamara (NOS) ($8200 FD|$8600)

Mid Tier

NFL DFS Running Back: David Johnson (ARI) ($6800 FD|$7500 DK)

If you read my Monday Night Football guide, and watched the game in Week Four, then you know all about the Bengals defense and their struggles against the run. The Bengals got smoked by James Conner who ended up with 125 all-purpose yards (83 through the air). David Johnson gets the same matchup in Week Five against a Bengals team coming off a short week. Johnson has 355 total yards (182 through the air) and is averaging over 18 FPTS per game. He will be heavily relied on once again in Week Five as the Cardinals rank bottom five in the league in offensive pass protection (10% sack rate).

NFL DFS Running Back: Leonard Fournette (JAX) ($6900 FD|$6400 DK)

Leonard Fournette is coming off of a monster 225 yard game on the ground against the Broncos and will face a Panthers defense that also struggles defending the run. They are allowing over 4.70 yards per carry to RB’s and Fournette is averaging nearly six yards per touch. It is noteworthy that Jacksonville has struggled in run blocking but given Carolina’s struggles in the trenches I have to give the Jaguars the edge here. Fournette is now third in the league with 404 rushing yards, big thanks to his performance in Denver.

Honorable Mention: Aaron Jones (GBP) ($6800 FD|$5900), Joe Mixon ($7100 FD|$6100 DK).

Low Tier

NFL DFS Running Back: James White (NEP) ($6200 FD|$5000 DK)

It is a bit difficult to pin point where Bill Belichick is going to go with the football, especially with his three man duo of Michel, White, and Burkhead. Sony Michel is also viable here but I tend to favor White, especially on DK with the PPR upside. The Redskins just allowed Wayne Gallman Jr. over 100 all-purpose yards and two TD’s. They rank bottom five in the league, allowing over 147 yards per game on the ground.

NFL DFS Running Back: David Montgomery (CHI) ($5700 FD|$5200 DK)

I’m not particularly crazy about this play but this week is pretty thin in terms of value at the position. Chicago’s offensive line has not been great with run blocking, they are only averaging 3.1 yard per carry. Montgomery has yet to top 100 yards in a game and will face an Oakland defense that is right in the middle of the pack, allowing over 100 yards per game on the ground.

Punts: Devonta Freeman ($6200 FD|$5300 DK)

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5 years ago 0 comment

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