Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for Saturday’sContender Boats 300 at Homestead-Miami Speedway!
Unlike the race before it on Saturday, this isn’t the cut-off race for the Xfinity that comes next week in Martinsville. Last week in Sin City, Josh Berry clinched the first spot in the final four for Phoenix. Berry is the first and only driver locked in for Phoenix, but it’ll be tough for Noah Gragson not to make his way there.
Friday afternoon, we had an abbreviated 10-minute practice session because of rain. Luckily the rain dissipated early enough to allow the Series to qualify. This is a traditional 1.5-mile track where the race will run 167 laps, leading to 113.9 dominator points being available, so using multiple dominators is recommended.
NASCAR DFS: Top Tier
Noah Gragson ($11,300)
Starting Position: 2nd
Gragson has been the class of the Xfinity Series this season, and I am sure I’ve already said that, but it is the truth. In four races on similar track types (Auto Club, Kansas, Charlotte, & Darlington), Gragson has two wins and has finished top 5 in all four races. Gragson is the only driver with multiple wins and four top 5’s, but not only that, Gragson has an average finish of 2nd and is 11 points better than 2nd place in DKFP P/race. Gragson had the fastest car in practice on Friday, if all that wasn’t enough.
Justin Allgaier ($10,700)
Starting Position: 20th
Allgaier has been great in the same four races I mentioned in my Gragson breakdown. Allgaier has finished top 10 in all four and has two top 5s. Allgaier is also a driver who can put up some dominator points, as he has averaged 10.75 dominator points per race in the four races at similar tack types.
Trevor Bayne ($10,000)
Starting Position: 1st
Bayne has shown that he can wheel a car with the best of the Xfinity Series when he is in a great car. In only eight races in 2022, Bayne has five top 5 finishes but is still looking for his first win. Bayne is no stranger to being upfront, though. In his eight races this season, Bayne has led at least 13 laps led in five races. Bayne didn’t run ten consecutive laps in practice, but he did have the 6th fastest lap.
Other Options: Ty Gibbs ($11,100 – P3), Josh Berry ($10,300 – P12), Sam Mayer ($9,300 – P6)
NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier
Parker Retzlaff ($7,600)
Starting Position: 29th
Retzlaff has been good in all his seven starts in 2022, and Saturday should be no different. If you take out Phoenix, where he had a fuel pump issue, Retzlaff has an average finish of 15.5 and a place differential of +35. Those are the two things we need from a driver like Retzlaff, as it is doubtful he will give us dominator points.
Sheldon Creed ($8,800)
Starting Position: 7th
Creed is an ideal GPP play for this race. It has not been the season this team envisioned when they started, but it is ending much better as they bring fast cars weekly. This week is no different, as Creed put down a top 10 lap in practice and has the quickest 10-lap average.
Ryan Sieg ($8,200)
Starting Position: 25th
Before having steering issues early at Las Vegas, Sieg had been on a role of quality finishes. Prior to Vegas, Sieg had four straight top 10s and six straight finishes of 18th or better. Sieg had a fast car in Friday’s practice posting the 13th-best single-lap time and a top 10 10-lap average. I like the upside of Sieg here; looking at him for a solid top-15 finish.
Other Options: Anthony Alfredo ($7,200 – P35), Landon Cassill ($8,400 – P16)