Isaiahs Protocol: Part 1: A Tutorial For Playing MLB DFS

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While the rise of the coronavirus pandemic has canceled most of our sports for the upcoming weeks, all is not lost. I’ve chosen to use this time to write a series of articles geared toward beginners and first-time players of daily fantasy baseball. On Thursday (March 12, 2020) MLB announced that opening day would be pushed back “at least 2 weeks”. This gives us plenty of time to discuss some key components involved in WinDaily playing MLB DFS.

There are many different statistics and strategies to use while researching the ideal MLB DFS roster. I’ve chosen to keep this series more standard as to not overwhelm beginners with too much information at once. As always, I encourage all of my readers to join the staff at WinDaily in the Discord chat rooms. Prior to the opening day, we will break down and discuss some of the intriguing players in more depth.

• Part 1: Finding the Pitchers
• Part 2: Identifying Offenses
• Part 3: Leagues, Stadiums, and Stacking
• Part 4: Roster Construction
• Part 5: Wrapping It Up and Bankroll Management for a Long Season

I know we are all anxious to get the season started but I have to briefly discuss 2 things that most MLB DFS players will mention right off the bat (corny pun intended). As is the case in most DFS sports, it is imperative that you are near a computer or smartphone in the minutes prior to lock. In MLB coaches are required to release their starting lineups before the beginning of each game. Nobody likes getting stuck with a player on their roster that turns in 0 fantasy points because they were scratched due to rest, or injury purposes. In MLB, the weather is also a major concern worth monitoring closely.

The other thing I feel obligated to mention is the rules and scoring. It may seem evident, but players must understand the rules and scoring systems in place on the different DFS sites. When watching or playing baseball, getting hits and having a pitcher limit the opposing teams runs, is how to win. While helpful, this is not always the case in MLB DFS. Getting on base and how hard each player hits the ball becomes more important when choosing batters. How many strikeouts, and how many innings a pitcher pitches are also important factors to consider when choosing a pitcher. Just like any game, it’s important to know the rules before you begin.

Part 1: Finding the Pitchers

Finding the right pitchers isthe single most important part to playing MLB DFS. Pitchers generally carry thelargest portion of points on your roster while also being the best places tofind opposing batters.

Pitchers get their statistics over an average of 30-35 games (or 200 innings) while pitching once every 5 games for the most part. Hitters get their statistics over an average of 4-5 at-bats per game, across a 162 game season. Batters also face a different pitcher every game. You should have a good idea of how good a pitcher is regardless of the team he’s facing. These scenarios leave a much higher variance for batters than pitchers. Simply put, don’t pay down for a pitcher. It’s the single best way to lose money playing MLB DFS. You may have to pay a ridiculous salary for the top pitchers and there is a good reason for that.

Las Vegas odds are a good place to start when searching for a starting pitcher. When a team is heavily favored with a total (runs scored) of less than 7, they should have a solid pitcher on the mound that night (for example a 5-1 or 4-1 predicted outcome). Starting pitchers that are expected to only give up a run or 2, should be allowed to pitch 6 innings or more in that game. If he’s only allowing that many runs, there’s also a good chance that the pitcher is striking out numerous batters as well. These factors are all high scoring results for a pitcher in MLB DFS.

There are also some statistics to look for when researching pitchers for your roster. K% is how often a pitcher strikes out the batter he’s facing. OPP K% is how often the opposing team strikes out. Strikeouts are a big factor in a starting pitchers fantasy score. Another statistic to consider is K/BB which is a pitchers strikeout to walk ratio. A great pitcher will have a K/BB ratio of 3 or higher, meaning he strikes out 3 batters (or more) for every walk he issues. If a pitcher is walking more batters than he’s striking out, that’s a strong indication that something is wrong. He’s probably either trying to hide an injury or may have something wrong with his mechanics. Either way, you don’t want him anywhere near your MLB DFS roster.

SIERA is another statistic I’d like to discuss. SIERA stands for skill-interactive earned run average. We are already aware that ERA (earned run average) is a statistic used to see how many runs a pitcher gives up per inning pitched. Over time we have learned that ERA doesn’t always give us the whole story. A pitcher can give up multiple hits and strand batters that never make it across the plate. A different pitcher may pitch well and not give up any hits or runners. Both will show a 0.00 ERA. SIERA is simply an advanced statistic that uses different factors. It takes into consideration other factors of a pitcher’s performance. Basically, SIERA allows us to see if pitchers that have gotten lucky, or may pitch in a pitcher-friendly stadium most of the time (like a home stadium), where home runs are harder to hit.

One last thing I’d like to mention is the league. If there’s ever a question you’re contemplating between 2 pitchers, always look for the National League stadium. If a pitcher is pitching in a National League stadium, the pitcher has to bat (no designated hitter). This automatically gives the opposing pitcher an advantage as pitchers are generally poor hitters and strikeout a lot.

I hope this was helpful in finding the right pitchers for your MLB DFS roster. It should also help us in finding the weaker pitchers, which I will attack in more depth in the next article of the series, Identifying Offenses. Please keep a lookout for it.

I highly encourage all readers to join myself, and the rest of the WinDaily team in the Discord chat rooms as we break down and discuss our favorite plays. Thank you for reading my content and feel free to leave a comment, or leave me a message on Twitter @IsaiahsProtocol.

GOOD LUCK AND HAVE FUN