Jared Levitt 
It’s Saturday and that means we have a split slate of games. I’ll be focused on the 7-game slate of MLB DFS starting at 7 pm est. This is a tricky slate at first glance. The top pitcher on the slate faces one of the best offenses in the game and it’s going to be really tough to use him tonight. We do though have some mid-priced arms in good spots that should succeed last night. Offense is also looking a little tough as we don’t really have our traditional gas cans on the mount.
Let’s Dig in and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Aaron Civale ($9.1k on DK) vs. Chicago White Sox
The price is a little more than I normally pay for Aaron Civale, but you have to like how he’s pitched of late and you have to really love the matchup here. Cinvale has had a very respectable 27% strikeout rate over the last month. He’s also done a decent job of limiting hard contact as hitters only have a 27% hard-hit rate vs. him this season. Couple that with the fact that the White Sox, even though they put up a 9 spot last night, have a terrible offense, we should see a solid game out of Civale.
The White Sox have the lowest implied run total on the board right now at just 3.1. When we talk tomorrow, we’ll say they scored the fewest runs on the slate because Civale should dominate them tonight.
Jose Siriano ($7k on DK) vs. Minnesota Twins
I said pitching was tough today and I meant it. Although even it wasn’t, I’d probably still go with this matchup. Since joining the rotation, Siriano has pitched formidably. He’s allowed 5 ER over the 3 starts and has struck out 19. He’s coming off a monster performance vs. the Reds that saw him not give up an ER and strike out 7. Being able to silence the Reds like that is not a small feat. He should continue to pitch well in what I consider a soft matchup.
This Twins lineup just isn’t very good right now. They’ve especially struggled vs. righties this season as they have a nearly 27% K rate and a .296 wOBA. At just $7k tonight, Siriano is going to be not only a great value pitcher but also one of the top-scoring pitches on this slate.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Los Angeles Angels vs. Chris Paddack
Ever since complaining about losing out on the ROY award to Pete Alonso back in 2019, Chris Paddack’s career has kind of spiraled out of control. He’s had multiple seasons with an ERA over 4.5. This season so far has been the worst start of his career. While it’s early, his ERA of 5.5 is the highest of his career and his xFIP is also at the highest it’s been in quite some time.
He’s coming off a really solid performance that saw him strike out 10 and not give up a run, but that was against the White Sox. A team that only has 4 wins on the season and has a -80 run differential. I don’t see Paddack having the same luck today against a much better Angels lineup.
With this stack, I’m going to lean on Mike Trout. Trout’s average so far this season has left quite a bit to be desired. That said, his power numbers are there right now as he leads the league in homers with 10. He only has 3 hits over the last week, 2 of which have left the park. Trout has been mostly unlucky though as he had a BABIP of just .091. That’s going to regress at some point and I think it happens vs. Paddack tonight.
I’m also going to lean on guys like Jo Adell, Miguel Sano, and Luis Rengifo. These 3 are the guys hitting the ball the best right now on the Angels. Outside of Trout, this lineup is filled with value and it’s going to help us get to a more expensive stack.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Jonathan Cannon
Can the Tampa Bay Rays return to the glory days of years past? That’s what I’m hoping for in this matchup. Jonathan Cannon now has 2 starts under his belt in the Majors. He opened up his career with a masterful performance vs. Kansas City which saw him give up just 1 ER across 5 innings of work. He came crashing back down to earth in his second outing, an outing that saw him give up 6 in just 3+ innings of work. The metrics aren’t great for Cannon.
He’s giving up a 31% line drive % and also a nearly 35% hard-hit rate. With a contact rate of nearly 88%, that’s just way too many hard-hit balls in play. This may be the matchup that finally gets the Rays lineup going. We’ll want to prioritize lefties here. So far in his young career, he’s allowed a slugging % of .619 to lefties and a .469 wOBA. Until he can prove he can get lefties out, we’ll want to stack them against him.
There’s a very good chance that Josh Lowe gets activated off the IL for tonight’s game. If he does, that makes me like this stack even more and will be an infusion of productivity for this lineup. After Lowe, I’d look to guys like Richie Palacios and Austin Shelton if they make the lineup. Both guys hit from the left side and should be able to get to Cannon.
Next, we’ll look to the guys in this lineup that are hitting the ball the best. That will lead me to guys like Isaac Paredes and Amed Rosario. Both guys are hitting the ball well right now, especially Rosario who has 7 hits in his last 19 AB. This lineup isn’t as sexy as it used to be, but they’re in a great spot tonight to put up some runs.
A stack I also like well tonight that fits with the 2 above-mentioned teams is the Atlanta Braves. The Braves are expensive but they are in a great spot. Both the Rays and Angels are cheap and will allow us to play the Braves with relative ease. If you go with the Braves, guys like Michael Harris and Acuna would be my main targets.
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